Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Cheers, Rockets fans, Welcome to The Logger Line, an exclusive
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(00:23):
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Speaker 2 (00:29):
It starts now.
Speaker 1 (00:30):
Welcome aboard.
Speaker 2 (00:39):
Thanks for checking out another new episode of The Logger Line. Again,
serve to you courtesy of Clutch City Lagger of Carbock Brewing.
I'm Ben Dubos, your host, editor of USA Today's Rockets
were a contributor to Sports Talk seven ninety, official flagship
prodeocation of your Houston Rockets. As usual, I'm joined by
Powell ALVE's, our co host and producer out of Portugal.
You can follow him on Twitter slash at Palo Aalves
(01:01):
NBA and me on there at Bendubo's so as we chat.
This Wednesday, March twelve, the Rockets are now forty and
twenty five. They've won three straight games, two over the Pelicans,
who at this point are largely in tank mode, but
a much more impressive one by thirteen points over the
Orlando Magic on Monday night in the first game of
(01:21):
the post Amen Thompson era. We hope that era will
be short lived because, as I recapped on Monday's A
Men Injury Reaction Show, ten to fourteen days, especially when
the Rockets are playing all five hundred or below teams
over that stretch, it's not too long to begin with,
and it should be manageable given the opponents. But nonetheless,
whenever you lose a guy that I think most people
(01:43):
consider to be your best player, it's difficult. And so
for the Rockets to come out and beat a solid
Orlando team. I know the record is just thirty and
thirty six, but they've had a ton of injuries all
season long. With Powell, Nkaro, Franz Wagner in the lineup,
it's a competent team, especially defensively. They're third in the NBA,
and they've had their struggles on offense, which the Rockets exploited,
(02:05):
holding them to eighty four points, fewest points alloted by
the Rockets in any game this season. But that's a
very good team with playoff experience, and so to go
out and get a double digit win without two of
your starters, no Women's Thompson, no Fred van Fleet, any
chance of there being a spiraling effect. I think went
away by being able to immediately post a win of
(02:28):
that magnitude, not saying it's one that you'll remember at
the end of this season, but with the tough luck
injury to a men right when he was about to
check out on Saturday night and it looked like they
might get Fred back and didn't. He was listed as
questionable going in to be able that night, to respond
with a complete win and after struggling early to put
(02:50):
it together very encouraging, and now all of a sudden
it feels like, you know the vibes were low with
the Rockets a week ago, Well, now they've won three
straight games and you've got still four more on this
homestand all against five hundred or below teams, including the
Phoenix Suns tonight. So let's start our discussion there. I think, well,
(03:10):
first off, Fred then Fleet should be back in the
lineup tonight. He is listed as probable, and so for
a Rockets team that turned the ball over twenty times
against the Magic. By the way, somehow the Rockets are
eight and one this year with twenty or more turnovers.
But I don't think they should intentionally be trying to
turnover the ball unfortunately. Fred Thenfleet being back should help
mitigate that deficiency because when you don't have Fred and
(03:34):
you don't have a men and Jalen Green is your
only primary ball handler, yeah, it gets harry at times,
and we saw that against the Magic. I think Fred
should have been much more organized offensively, which they'll need
against a Sun's team. That say what you will about
their deference, but Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, Bradley beal they
will be able to put up points. So it will
be great to see Fredvinfleet back. But I think where
(03:55):
we should probably start our discussion when it comes to
this game and others to come over the remainder of
the homestand is the change to the Rockets rotation over
the last week or so, which is Ima Udoka playing
this double big lineup with Steven Adams and all Parish
and Goon at the same time. Stephen is coming back
to health after having the sore ankle in the first
(04:15):
few weeks of the calendar year, and he looked phenomenal
against the Magic, seventeen boards in just twenty three minutes,
ten offensives. So you know, the Magic are a team
that defensively, they want to grind you out, they can't
put up points. And so when you look at a
double big lineup, what you worry about is, well, can
a team that has a lot of athleticism and shooting
(04:37):
space you out and make it to where they just
can't hold up defensively, Well, that's probably not gonna happen
against the Orlando Magic. And conversely, if you're able to
crash the offensive class and get put backs, you sort
of neuter one of their biggest strengths, which is their
ability to keep you from scoring. And so it was
a good time to try that, and I thought it
worked very well for the Rockets, and really it has
(05:00):
ever since. They started using it in the second half
of that Indiana game on March fourth, then the two
against the Pelicans. Although not sure how much you can
take out of those Pelicans matchups, because obviously that's not
a very good team. But Palo I'll bring you in
on this. I think it's hard to say how much
of em Udoka turning to the double big lineup is
(05:23):
in response to the Amen's situation and how much of
it is just purely coincidence. But I do think that
it comes at a very good time because without amen
and in a stretch where you're not playing very good teams,
the fact that there isn't much tape on how to
(05:44):
attack this double big lineup. It's a new wrinkle. It
might be a little gimmicky, but in the short term
against mediocre to bad teams, I think it can work.
I don't know if it's a long term solution. I
don't know if it's something that will work in the playoffs,
but I think for now, in a stretch of the
schedule where it could have been very difficult given the
(06:06):
rockets injuries, I think it's also a shot in the
arm for the team to try something new, a new
wrinkle at a time in which it would be very
easy to sort of give in to the malaise of
you know, the dog days, then thea calendar, all the
injuries piling up. You can see when you talk to
these guys in the locker room or you listen to
(06:26):
what they say, they're energized by this. It's something new
they haven't tried before. And even if it isn't a
long term fit, even if it doesn't necessarily work in
the playoffs and you go away from it, when a
Men comes back. I think the fact that the Rockets
are able to lean into this a little more right now,
all at the same time that they lose a Men, Thompson,
(06:46):
it just comes at a pretty perfect time, and so
I'm curious your thoughts on the move, both its short
and long term implications. Long term, I'm still skeptical how
it works against a team that has a lot of
speed and shooting. But in the short term, Powell, I'm
pretty optimistic. I don't see any reason why it won't
(07:07):
be able to work against teams like you know, the MAVs,
the Bulls, the Sixers. Coming up. The Suns might be
a better test because the Suns absolutely do have highrepower
offensively and they can space you out. But other than
the Suns, as far as the teams on the remaining
Rocket schedule over these two weeks without a MEN, it
sets up pretty well.
Speaker 3 (07:24):
Right so another big lineup. I think being worried about
whether or not it works against band the teams is
actually to me not an issue at all, because we
have not struggled to beat the good team. We've struggled
with taking battle losses to the bad teams. So if
we have a mechanism, be it a double big lineup
that perhaps reduces variants defensively, or if that's the case,
(07:49):
then that's perfectly fine. We need to find a way
to beat the teams that we have to beat or
that we should beat. So if that's all it's good for,
then to me, that's a great tool already. But then
besides that, I think obviously when we play it, we
play two threes Z on on defense and which typically
requires crisp decision making from teams and not hesitating on shooting.
(08:11):
And I think something that as the defense has been
worn down throughout the year that we've been relying more
and more on has been the fact that we've been
there in teams to shoot a lot even without the
little big lineup. There's I think there's I think any
rockets fand that watches the games can tell that there
are stretches where we're giving up wide open threes, and
(08:33):
we've been bailed out by teams not shooting the percentages
that they should when they're getting mostly wide open worked.
I think we give up a lot of open trees
and we are not as ponished from it as we
should be, not from the beginning of the season, but
from the time that the defense stars has started to
fall off, right and we can say, oh, we're never
(08:54):
going to be the team if they cloud for six percent, Well,
if we defend better at a three point line, they'll
probably not hear thirty forty six percent. But this is
say that in comparison, what the double will be clinne
up does, is it since the defense is not as
good as used as it used to be and we're
giving up these shots anyways, what the doublebe line up
does is that it still gives up those shots, so
(09:17):
we're still taking basically the same risk, but it reduces
it reduces the risk of giving up offensive rebounds to
the other team a lot more, which is something that
we have also struggled with in it and it's been
a point of criticism for the team, you know lately,
I would say, And so to me, it makes sense
in that perspective. And then as far as whether I
(09:39):
think it's whether it would still work as well with
a man thumbs on the on the team, I think
it's actually not going to be that big of a
problem because the spacing is already awful as is, not
that it's a terrible argument to make. But the spacing
is as as awful as it is anyways, and we
are already having to have our bigs or play double bigger,
(10:01):
or have our bigs both in the paint when a
men Thompson's playing, and during that stretch where Wit was injured,
there were there and are Easan was injured and Jabry
Smith will under time that Liberty Smith was injured. We've
seen or Date and the difference between j Shan Date
and Steven Adams spacing white is actually not that big.
(10:23):
You don't want as an open Date three to be
the spectructure you're getting. And so we were using these
players in the paint, crashing the boards, trying to, you know,
make something work, setting screens already. So I think it
would it will still work. It won't work against every team.
I think you can't play like this against the Worders,
for example, they'll just pork you do. You can't play
(10:44):
like this against the Celtics because there's more than willing
to take those those open trees all the time. But
it might work against the Calves, it might. I'm talking
about playoff teams. I think it will probably work against
the Lakers. It will probably not work against against the Grizzlies,
although it might if they're not as willing to use
Jaren Jackson as a spacer and Giles willing a strict
(11:06):
the bull of privities if he best, and so I
think it's definitely a tool that's worth considering. And I
think it's also I think it simplifies the game on
defense for all all of the players and it requires
less attention to detail on any given possession, which is
something that they think this thing has been struggling with
because I think fatigue is definitely played a factor. There's
(11:27):
no I think you can't argue against the fact that
Dylan Brooks is a shadow of what he was earlier
in the season defensively, and this happened last season as well.
Maybe he just gets worn out and his latural mobility
just falls off. I don't know, but it's something that
you you know, at this point in the season, the
goal is to win as many games as we can
(11:48):
and be as good as we can going into the playoffs,
and there's no more moves that you can make through
that lines over. So with the tools that you have,
you have to try and play, even if it's a
full type of bussle long term, we have to try
and find as many edges as you can. Teams should
be in the playoff mode already, So all in all,
I think we shouldn't really even look at it as
(12:10):
a since I think it's it's a tendency that has
been going on with an announcing the team since the
because we're coming off of a reveal. Everything's projected long term.
To me, this is queerly too, that's working, queer little
tool that has already shown results. So it's already worthed
that we tried it. If it doesn't work moving forward,
it's a question of adapting in time and hey, we
(12:32):
can't run this anymore team that figured it out, or
it doesn't fit this specific matchup for example, And so
it's just happy that it worked, happy that they were
willing to try it. It's not new within ima Udoka,
a type of I guess said just months he obviously
tried tried it with all Horford and Robert Williams, although
(12:53):
both of those guys are more switchable than our guys.
But it goes to show that I think the NBA
is sims that are in this argument that I have made. Therefore,
since there are no true overwhelming dynasty type teams like
the Warriors or the Cavs with Lebron teams don't explore
(13:13):
you can run. I think the NBA is rediscovering a
lot of things that you weren't able to run because
we were just never going to beat those teams with it.
And the NBA is rediscovering a lot of strategies that
are flawed, but they will work because the other teams
are not ready for them, or did they want to
just in time, or even aren't good enough teams in
(13:36):
the league right now to instantly punish it. And so
I think it's also a result of having more parity,
but that's obviously in a completely different discussion, and I've
gone on long enough. I'm just all in all of this,
happy it happened, Happy that we're going to keep trying
it moving forward, and I'm not too worried about if
this is going to get exposed, because if it is,
(13:57):
a strategy is still successful if it works for ten games,
and then you have to go away from we didn't
make a trade, or we didn't make any long term commitment.
We're not losing anything long term in order to run
this so why not.
Speaker 2 (14:10):
Yeah, And I think you did a good job of
laying out some of the longer term considerations as you
get ready for what we hope is a playoff run
a month or so from now, But in the short
term against these lesser opponents, I think it's really useful
as well, because I think what we've seen throughout this year,
when you look at the macro and not just the
micro look, the Rockets are a top five defense. We
(14:33):
saw and have seen flashes of that in recent weeks.
We saw it certainly against the matchup on Monday. We
saw it when they held the Bucks blow one hundred
a couple of weeks ago into just thirteen points in
the fourth quarter or whatever it was. But there are
a mediocre offense, and when the Rockets really really have
problems is often when they go on these prolonged drouts
and they can't score in the half court. And maybe
(14:55):
this will change a little bit with Fredman fleet back,
although I don't know if it will be one hundred
percent right away. You know, I think back to the
Cleveland game in January when the Cabs done on that
ridiculous run in the fourth quarter and it took fred
making a couple of threes to finally snap the Rockets
out of it. Maybe the need is a little bit
less once you get Fred back, But in this stretch
of the schedule where the Rockets really can't afford to
(15:17):
have bad losses, that's where losing a man really hurt.
He's a very high floor guy, and you need high
floor guys right now in games that, on paper, you
need to win before the schedule gets difficult. Going down
the home stretch of the year, we'll talk about the
standings on the back half of this pod and who
the Rockets might can catch. But really two through seven
(15:38):
are separated by just five and a half games. That's
a ridiculously small amount when you consider the stakes. If
through the seventh seed, you have to go through the
play in tournament just to advance to the playoff. Sure
season could end with just two bad nights, and if
you're the two seed, you're in line to have home
court advantage and at least two rounds. So there are
huge stakes. There's not a lodge of margin for error.
(16:00):
And when you look at those six teams, the Nuggets,
the Lakers, the Grizzlies, the Rockets, the Warriors, the Timberwolves.
All of them are currently on winning streaks, except for
the Lakers, who of course are dealing with the Lebron
James grown injury, and perhaps the Rockets can run down
the Lakers. More on that in a little bit, But
the reason I bring all that up is to say
that this is the time of year where there's much
(16:20):
more of a gap between the good teams and the
bad because the good teams are legitimately trying, They are
more dial than on a gay man game out basis
because of the playoffs being right around the corner, and
the bad teams are starting to turn their attention to
development and next season and tanking if you want to
be blunt, And so with that, there's a huge incentive
(16:45):
to not drop games to lesser teams the likes of
which the Rockets are mostly playing on this Homestand I
think they're in the middle of the stretch now of
nine straight games against teams with five hundred records or worse.
And so how can the Rockets lose to a team
that on paper they should be better than? The most
likely way, and we've seen this at times throughout the year,
(17:06):
is that somebody gets hot on the other team, and
the Rockets go into one of these droughts where because
they don't have that proven one A, they just can't
put the ball in the bucket. Well, the one thing
about the double big lineup, when you're playing both all
po Inchion Goon and Steven Adams, they combined for over
thirty one rebounds against the Magic earlier this week. You're
probably not going to go in a long drought offensively
(17:28):
because even if you aren't shooting well, you're gonna get
shots and free throws because they just crash the glass.
You can use Jabarcemith Junior as a six foot eleven
small forward as well, and you get these easy putbacks
you force the other team to value, and so it
really cuts against what is, in my opinion, the most
likely way the Rockets could lose to a lesser team.
(17:48):
Now Phoenix might be the one outlier because Phoenix actually
can outscore you. But for the most part this homestand
when you look at teams like the Magic and certainly
the MAVs, the Bulls, the Sixers, what you need is
to avoid droughts and you should be able to rely
on your defense, which has shown signs of getting better
in recent weeks and so I think this double big
(18:10):
lineup in the short term, it makes a ton of sense,
right and then Jabari at the three. We'll talk about
him a little bit as well, but Jabari fits into
that as well, because now you have a huge size
advantage there as well. You can even play Tari at
the two, and we know how he crashes the offensive
class and so to me, in the short term, it's
just the perfect counter and that's what the Rockets need
right now, because look, internally, they were really viewing this
(18:31):
Orlando game as important because what you don't need this
time of year is to stack losses because if you
go on a losing streak, and we saw the way
they had the three game skid a week ago, and
it's allowed the Warriors and the Timberwolves kind of close
the gap. Teams can make up ground and hurry because
everyone is dialed in, and I think everyone knows that
the Suns are better than their record, or at least
(18:54):
they're capable of being better than their record. And so
if you had lost to the Magic with all the
bad vibes him in injury and uncertainty surrounding Fred, all
of a sudden, you might can lose multiple games. Well,
now it looks like even if you do lose the
Phoenix game tonight, and I hope they don't, they are
favored for a reason. Well, you still have this backstop
coming up of games against the MAVs, the Bulls, the Sixers,
(19:15):
where you should be pretty big favorites. And so to me,
that's where the double big lineup in the short term
is really helpful. These games against mediocre to bad opponents.
If the Rockets defend at the level they're capable of
and they crash the glass with Adams and Shagoon and
sometimes J're Bari and Tari at the three, even the two,
(19:37):
you're probably not going to go in the tank offensively.
And then as long as you defend at a capable level,
you should be fine. And so I guess to sum
it all up, the biggest loss to me of taking
him in Thompson out is he is your floor racer.
He is most consistent in terms of his production, his
effort from one game to the next. Well, in a
(19:59):
very unorthodox way, this is sort of replacing that. This
is giving you a way to raise the floor. I
think the argument I made in the last pod ideally
you need all for in Shongoon and or Jalen Green
to step up. They're your high variance guys during this
stretch without a men, and that's still the case. But
the double big lineup is a way that you can
(20:22):
really raise the floor. They might do it in a
different way. With a man, it's more his ability to
get out and transition, his ability to play make a
little bit. We know what he can do off the ball.
With Stephen and Alpi, it's the way they crash the glass.
But regardless, they raise the floor. And in a stretch
of the schedule where you're playing bad teams, there's a
lot of value in that, right. Yeah.
Speaker 3 (20:45):
So I think that goes into what I was saying,
which is any tool that can help us, you know,
as you said, raise our floor against the bad team
is actually pretty useful to because our young guys maybe
they like the talent from whatever it is. We've seen
them get up to play the CAFs. We've seen them
get up to play the Celtics. We've seen them get
(21:05):
up to play even even Okay, see when we were
shorthanded end the time that we beat them. So it's
you know, we as I said before, we are at
a point where we're trying to win games, and anything
that contributes to us winning games is a good thing.
But actually want to talk about something that I've seen
a little bit here and there, which is people talking
(21:25):
about the double big line up cindering like prospect development,
and I think that eyes in perfectly into what I
just said. We're at a point in this teams, in
the team, in the team's kind of path where the
priority is to win games.
Speaker 2 (21:40):
Right.
Speaker 3 (21:41):
Add even I guess i'd even not as much dispute
the premise, which is, yes, it kind of dumbs down
the game a little bit. Playing zone dumbs down the
game a little bit, and then perhaps you're not exposing
guys to the set that the same situation as defensively.
But it's also kind of both because you're you're offensively,
(22:02):
you're making it harder on everybody because the spacing sud
is good, You're you're having You're making Jalen Green have to,
you know, make multiple reads in the same play. You're
making guys have to finish through more. You know, people
in the paint for the games have to be better.
Everything like that. But all in all, whether it's true
(22:25):
or not, it shouldn't matter because the priority is to
win games. And I think going into the season we
I think we both said that, yes, the priority is
to get to the playoffs, but you still take some
consideration into or you still take into consideration some development.
Right if if you're if if it's close between Reach Chapper,
(22:47):
then their holiday should give priority to Read CHAPPERD because
he's younger, and you factor that it right at this point,
even though Reads is hurt, I would argue even against that,
say that the priority is even if we are just
the point better with someone over someone who is younger,
which would run with the person that's one point better,
(23:09):
because that's the goal here, and that has to be
the approach with which fans look at the games.
Speaker 2 (23:15):
Now.
Speaker 3 (23:16):
It's all about winning and if nothing else, getting further
into higher pressure situations also has that development impact. And
I don't know it just it seems to me like
you're kind of trying to find ways to be upset,
not right, you know, actually looking at it from a
(23:38):
constructive standpoint.
Speaker 2 (23:39):
Right, And for this season, the majority the data is in.
You've played sixty five of eighty two games, so it
would take something incredibly unlikely to dramatically change the narrative
about any of these players or the team as a
whole heading into the off season. So I saw a
(24:00):
reject the premise that, oh, you shouldn't play Alphrin Chongoon
and Steven Adams together because it's the modern NBA. You
don't see many two center lineups and you should be
gambling on more minutes for I guess it's Cam Whitmore
at this point because reached Shepherd's hurt. I just think
at this point most of the data is baked in,
and so with seventeen games left, what happens with the
(24:21):
standings and maximizing your ability to win is far more
important because whether this team makes the playoffs or not
and gets to stress test this model under the bright
lights is huge. We've talked about it all season long,
and now they're just a month away. There is so
much value before you have to make big decisions on
the contract extensions for the next round of your three
(24:43):
guys Jabarrice Smith Junior and Tari Easton, before we talk
about big time trade possibilities, Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, those
types of names that we know will come up in
the off season to be able to see what you have.
If you go the full season being in the top
four to the west a lot of it in the
top two or three, and you followed the playing tournament
and a bad night or two knock you out, that's
(25:05):
brutal and you lose the opportunity to see how your
guys perform, which is at a macro level, what this
season was about. That was the goal, and you've been
in position to accomplish that nearly the whole way, and
if you let it slip away with a bad final month,
that's the kind of thing that could have repercussions and
ripple effects that are felt for a long time. So yeah,
(25:29):
I just reject the whole premise that there needs to
be a priority on stylistically how you play and it
being compatible with prospect development and the way you're likely
to play, you know, months years down the line, and
you're really trying to contend now. I think at this
point of the year, you're just trying to scratch together wins,
especially without a men Thompson, because so much of your
(25:51):
model is built on having a men as something of
a Swiss army knife to cover up a lot of weaknesses.
His style of play is so complimentary that he helps
a lot of your other young guys. Well, without a men,
your model isn't what it typically is anyway, and you're
almost out of regular season games and you're playing lesser teams, where,
let's be honest, the question would be there of how
(26:13):
even if you do play in a more stylistically compatible
way with the so called future version of the Rockets, Well,
people will say, Okay, Treyllen went out and had big games,
or Cam went out and had big games against you know,
the MAVs, the Bulls, the Sixers, how's that going to
translate down the road against better teams? The same question
would still be there. So I just don't think the
juice is anywhere near worth the squeeze when you look
(26:34):
at the value of simply winning games and maximizing your
odds of getting to the playoffs and accomplishing your big
picture goals, which is seeing how the team performs under
the bright lights in April and hopefully may I think
at this point it's all about winning. And if you
think Steven Adams and all Princh Shongoon playing then together
gives you a better chance to do that. And I
(26:55):
think the data bears that out when you look at
you know, the sample is still small, but clearly it's
one of the Rocket's best two man groupings of this
entire season. It's looked very, very good. And so if
in the short term you can win with it, you
take those and run and you can worry about the
longer term concerns at a ladder time, especially when you're
(27:15):
at a point in the year where it's really too
late to dramatically change the narratives for any of these
guys to begin with. That's the macro and then the
micro on this I don't even necessarily agree that there's
not data point that can still be taken on some
of these younger guys when played with the double big lineup.
And one recent example is Jabari Smith Junior. Look when
(27:36):
he's at the three, and he said after Monday's game
against the Magic that he really likes it. He has
a huge advantage crashing the glass against smaller defenders. He
has a little more freedom on the perimeter to be
sort of the primary creator at times. Now, perhaps that
changes some when Fredri Vliet comes back. Certainly will when
(27:57):
a men is back in a week or two, but
Jabbari as an offensive you know, don't want to call
him an engine because he's not that, but as more
of a scorer, is clearly good for this team. He
put up twenty against the Magic, went four of eight
on three's in the second half, and the Rockets are
now twelve and one this year when he scores at
(28:18):
least fifteen points, and it makes sense that for a
team that on the balance of the season is very
good defensively but average offensively. Well, Jabbari as a player
is fairly average offensively, at least in terms of his scoring,
but is clearly good defensively when you look at his
value to the team in terms of how they defend,
how they rebound. When he picks up his deficiency, and
(28:43):
I'm not saying he's bad offensively, he is worse compared
to the defensive end, then the team's results are going
to follow because you're taking one of your most relied
upon players and you're mitigating that weakness, which just so
happens to be the weakness for the team overall as well.
And so the sample is still small, I will say
that in the four games since he may went to
(29:06):
this double big lineup starting with the Indiana game that
they came back in and took a lead before running
out of gas and lost, and then the three game
winnings streaked sense. So the four games of Double Big
small sample, but Shabari's averaging over fifteen points a game.
That's that magic number where the rockets are twelve to
one when Javari scores at least fifteen, and he's shooting
about forty six percent overall and forty one percent from three.
(29:28):
So these are very good numbers. The sample is small,
but I bring it up to say there's value in
seeing how it translates. And if you get a better
version of Jabari because he plays more at the three.
Certainly he's virtual enough defensively to survive there at least
against most threes, then you're learning something that's going to
(29:50):
tell you about Javari's long term value in a summer
in which you're going to have to decide how much
you're willing to extend him for and so on and
so forth. So beyond the the fact that it's about winning,
I also don't even agree with the premise that you
can't learn about prospects with the Double Bigs, because we're
learning about Jabbari and the sample is still small, but
(30:10):
we've learned good things over the past week. If it
continues over the remainder of this season, then yeah, that
maybe that opens up, you know, some eyes around Toyota
Center to where the Rockets look at Jabari in a
different light moving forward and what he's capable of doing,
and perhaps he's even more versatile moving forward. We know
he can be a small ball center, which Udoka loves
to deploy against so own defenses because of the spacing
(30:33):
that there might be some matchups, or you benefit from
having him at the three and being able to crash
the glass because of how much this offense depends on
offensive rebounding, So beyond just the macro factors and winning
games to get to the playoffs, the micro of how
this seems to be helping Jabari. That's a note as well,
especially when again Jabari's scoring success is so strongly correlated
(30:57):
or at least appears to be with success for the Buckets.
And so Paolo, I'll bring you in on that because
moving forward with Fred coming back but a men still
being probably week and a half two weeks away, how
do you play this because I think we can probably agree,
then the numbers bear it out that the Rockets are
a better team when they get a good offensive version
(31:18):
of Jabari Smith Junior. And so with Fred back, you're
gonna have four starters for sure, and Fred, Dylan Brooks,
Jalen Green and all for in Shanoon. And then you
have Tarri Easton and Jabari Smith Junior. And those two
have sort of alternated most of the year. Jabari has
started since the All Star break, and perhaps some of
this is Jabari coming back from a hand issue, but
(31:39):
Tari has more often than not started over Jabari. And
so you can make the argument of start Jabari to
max out his minutes in much the same way we
talked about needing a start a mend so that you
know he's not artificially capped in the twenty eight range,
it's easier to go thirty thirty five. Plus, if Jabari
is this important to you offensively, then you know you
start him, it's easier for him to get to higher
(32:01):
minutes and have more opportunities. At least in theory, you
could also argue that, hey, if you bring him off
the bench, it's easier to make him the offensive focal point.
And as opposed to sort of becoming a stationary shooter
in the corner or on the wing and letting guys
like Jalen are all per in Shangoon do the playmaking.
Even if the minutes are a little bit lower because
(32:23):
he's coming off the bench and that might cap you
at twenty eight to thirty minutes at the most most nights,
then he's able to offset that because he's being used
in a different way that lets him be much more
of a focal point of the offense. So I think
there's arguments you can make both ways. I still don't
think he'll start when a men comes back. I think
it's pretty clear that Emate's preference is Fred, Jalen, Dylan Amen,
(32:47):
and Shingoon. That there may be a stretch. There probably
will be a stretch with Fred back, but a man not.
And so there's multiple ways you could sort of tap
into or try to tap into the best version of Jabari.
I think we can that Pek Jabari, at least offensively,
is good for this team. So Powell, what's your strategy
on how they should try to bring that out over
(33:09):
the next couple of weeks.
Speaker 3 (33:12):
This you asked this question, and obviously because of the
of the Magic Game. It's not completely surprising, but when
I was running through the outline for all we're going
to talk out on the pod, it actually got me
thinking about a lot more than just you know, how
can we maximize them? I mean, first, I think the
way to maximize them is if you want to give
(33:32):
him more offensive rep it's probably to bring him off
the back. Having him be the three is interesting because
he could to be bigger than most trees when it
comes to how you use the more interesting part because
when Debarry was drafted, we had Kealen Green, we had KPJ,
we had Cheng un So because the next oh.
Speaker 2 (33:54):
No a lottery talent.
Speaker 3 (33:56):
And because of that, and because of how much he
struggled is were here shooting, it was very easy to
put him aside as someone who had shot, creating the upside.
And as time went on, we started using him some
in you know, typical shooter type of possessions, right just
to just a quick screen into a middle and shot
(34:19):
just sparting up and and eventually he progressed as to
a point where he could close out and we were
and by the time we were, you know, happy that
he was developing more of a around the and around
the basket type of game as well, because that was
a real concern when when he was in college and
his early time in the NBA he struggled. And then
(34:42):
there was the entire shift in how and how the
team worked. He made came in and open chingun is
now you know, full focal, focal point of the offense.
Kevin Greens obviously get shots. Dylan Brooks for a defensive player,
you know, gets a lot of a lot of shot created,
shot creation offensively for them with obviously runs to pick
and roll, and it was very easy. And now with
(35:05):
them and Thompson being initiated as well, Jabari just fell
out down the backing order and I felt and I
feel like he's developed over the over the years and
it's time to see if there's something there right. And
I'm talking about especially with the injuries. I'm surprised that
obviously his injury obviously didn't help him. But it's intriguing
(35:28):
because we typically talk about this team's half guard offense
as being struggling and being highly highly highly dependent on
Chillen Green as the only guy besides Albern Schigun who
can get his own shot basically at will because he'saw athletic,
he always has the step back. He can take commuitican shot.
He can get a shot off basically not always a
good shot, but if you need one to get a
(35:49):
shot off. It probably turned him. But it kind of
threw me back to a time where and I'm specifically
remembering about I think it was years two for the
part year a Narwi or two?
Speaker 2 (36:00):
Was it Rooki year?
Speaker 3 (36:01):
Probably was rookie year again they would ready had at
the buzzer.
Speaker 2 (36:06):
Uh, it was the waning days of Steven Silas.
Speaker 3 (36:10):
Yes, and and back then it was a real discussion. Hey,
if if we need someone to take a last start
in the game, you know there is a pretty good
candidate because he can get a start off anyways. And yeah,
and I feel like that faded away this year. Nobody
talks about it. And I think one of the most
reliable shots that we can get that already has been
(36:31):
making recently is those those fatalway miterring shots, which I
think since the injury, he's actually done not better at
it makes you wonder, well, he did make some progress
driving to the room. Uh, he uses his body a
lot better than when he used to and this team
is not good offensively in theF court at all. So
it's actually really really intriguing to explore marj party Smith
(36:56):
as a shot creator by himself. And I'm talking both,
I'm talking face faces, yeah, and it might kind of
solve if words, It's definitely very useful in the off
season because the game is going to slow down and
he's exactly the type of player you need. It becomes
an interesting point as well, well, then how far into
(37:18):
it do you explore? You try is he ready to
handle some pick and roll situations right where you have
a big set screen for him and not necessarily needing
him to come off of a screen. He can have
someone set the screen for him. Is that is the
handle good enough to get to that? If we've seen
him run some pick and Populico and green, but that's
not the types of poison specifically talking about you could
(37:41):
always run that, but and specifically talking about exploring him
on the ball as a shot creator, and especially in
the current state of a team where we're talking about
trading for Kadie in the off season, and well, if
Slower shows flashes of being a no ball shot creator,
something that we haven't explored way back to basically his
(38:03):
rookie season. To me, it actually makes even more of
it makes it make even more sense to go after that,
I KD because he's someone who's you know, basically been
his entire career in situations where he has to create
some shout at the size that Libori has. And obviously
Glevorti is not as fluid, never will be, not going
to have the same game as kat but he could
(38:24):
have Michael Porter junior type of offensive game. When when
you combine that with his defensive versatility, that's a very, very,
very valuable player. There's a lot of potential, or at
least a lot of data to be collected on what
Cleboy can be. And I think because of how muchly
struggle this rookie season, we've kind of doomed him to Oh,
if he's he's definitely going to be a yeah, and
(38:48):
we haven't really explored anymore than that. And the same
goes to a lesser extent to Tarisan, But I feel
like Thearisan actually gets a lot more or probably because
he's more confident and and he you know, it.
Speaker 2 (39:02):
Feels like Kitari just doesn't have the filter. He's always
willing to let it fly in a way that Jabari,
for whatever reason, it's sometimes more content to sort of
slip into a secondary role exactly.
Speaker 3 (39:13):
And I think it's it's definitely something that's you know,
that you might have something there that he's not exploring,
and I don't think it's out of the realm of
possibility that it's actually something that's ready to go right now.
And since the thing is kind of scrambling to find
ways to score on offense, it's definitely I think it's
not just intriguing. I think it will almost be malpractice
(39:36):
to not do it, especially because going into the off season,
there's there's no telling who we're going to trade in
this in the in the in the said for the
star player, and a lot of people bring up to
Bari Smith and he's out. He's always one of the
guys that are like, wait, he's only going to be
valued the least idea that then we should be valuating him.
So he's not exactly the best player. And there's a
(40:00):
lot of guys out there that there's a lot of
ground between being KD and being p K Zucker, or
between being KD and being and I'll call it PK. Washington.
I know, I guess PK. Washington has actually got a
pretty good back. But between the three and d row player,
the Robert Covington and Kevin Durant, there's a lot of
(40:25):
de Andrei Hunters. There's a lot of Jelen Johnson's, There's
a lot of as I just said, a lot of PJ. Washington's.
There's a lot of Michael porteruc huniors on the higher
end offensively, and you might have one of those guys
and you don't know yet, and perhaps maybe like some
of these other guys that I listed earlier in their careers,
(40:46):
that we may not given the chance. But then nobody
thought PJ. Washington was as good as a boocket canter
as he was until he got to the Mavericks and
they had some injuries and all of a sudden, oh wait,
he's basically the third scorer on this team. Not this year,
obviously last year. So all of this really really really
long thing to say, Javari was a number to be big.
(41:07):
There's a lot of talent there and this team does
not have the luxury in the half guard to not
explore what could be there, especially because he can get
the shot off give him volume. Let's see how he
doesn't volume, and so.
Speaker 2 (41:21):
You're thinking off the bench because that gives him the
best chance at volume.
Speaker 3 (41:25):
Yep, exactly, especially without a men. And once Amentum's back,
he's going back to the starting lineup, so it will
make even more sense.
Speaker 2 (41:34):
Gotcha, all right, we'll see tonight. I will say that
Phoenix is something of an outlier matchup simply because of
the scoring potential. So whatever he may decides, be it
Tori or Javari as the fifth starter alongside Fred, assuming
he plays, and then Jalen, Tillan and Shongoon, who are locks,
I wouldn't necessarily take it as a lock that it
(41:56):
will be that way for the remainder of the period
without a men, because it could be that you think
you need well. It could be more offense, or it
could be more defense to slow them. But the needs
against the Suns are different than they are against a
team like the MAVs the Bulls. It could also be
influenced by Atari's availability. The MAVs and Bulls games are
back to back, both at home, but at this point
(42:16):
Taria has not been clear to play on both ends,
but back to back, perhaps he will be this weekend.
They have not ruled it out, but we don't know
as of our recording time. I just say all that
to offer a war of caution that whatever email ultimately
decides tonight, I wouldn't think that it's necessarily set in
stone for the future games. So it's something it's a
storyline to still keep your eyes peeled for over the
(42:38):
remainder of this homestand and certainly the remainder of the
ten to fourteen days that they're likely to be without
Amen Thompson. All right, so last segment of today's pot
I mentioned the standings earlier, and we've talked a lot
in recent weeks, especially when the Rockets were struggling about
(43:00):
the teams behind them. And you know, this time of year,
it feels like everybody that's the contender is stacking wins
because the gap between the teams they're trying and the
teams that aren't are bigger than ever because of the
end of the season approaching and because of the playoffs approaching.
So when the Rockets were on a three game sched
which they were this time a week ago, we saw
(43:20):
teams like the Warriors and the Chimberwolves that were on
longer winning streaks getting closer, and it you know, raised
some alarm bells. And even though the Rockets have started
winning games, they haven't actually gained separation of the Warriors
Timberwolves just yet. Well, they are still up three four games.
They haven't built it back up to the five six
game buffer that it was because those teams are still winning. However,
(43:42):
even without a Man, I think there's reasonable optimism the
double big lineup, Jabari coming on, and most notably the
weaker schedule. But the Rockets actually can, especially at home
where they're twenty two to ten and have won five
of six since the All Star break, to stack some
wins and so if some other teams finally lose as
their schedule get more difficult and on paper, for the
most part, they are, then the Rockets can perhaps regain
(44:06):
some separation over teams that have gained on them a
little bit in recent weeks, and perhaps past some teams
that jumped ahead of the Rockets when, especially in early
February when they're at the peak of their injury crisis,
pushed the Rockets from two or three in the Western
Conference standings the way they were for most of December
and January down to the four or five range, which
(44:29):
is where they've been, it feels like for the last
two or three weeks. So as opposed to the Warriors
and Timberwolves, because we talked about, you know, how the
Rockets need to hold them off, and even with the
recent surge, the Rockets are still largely in control of
you know, where they stand relative to those two and
quite frankly, they can be passed by one of those
and still be fine as long as you're in the
(44:51):
top six. You know, We've said it before. I think
the Rockets are more than happy to let the chips
fall as they may as long as they get in
that top six. Because with as much parody as there
is in the West, you can be a sixth seed
and probably be favored in the first round. If the
three seeds Memphis, you can be the two seed and
probably an underdog if the seventh seed is the Warriors
the Timberwolves. So it's about just getting in and then
(45:12):
hope for the best when it comes to matchups, health,
getting hot at the right time, all those types of factors.
So in terms of ultimately getting in the top six,
which they're at right now, I mean certainly need to
hold off the teams beneath you, but also you could
run down one or more teams in front of you,
because in that world, even if the Warriors and or
Timberwolves go on a long run, well if you pass
(45:34):
a team like the Grizzlies or the Lakers, that okay,
you can get passed by the Warriors or Timberwolves and
still be in the top six. Or if the Rockets
truly have stabilized things and they're figuring things out the
double big lineup, then if you get in the top four,
you guarantee yourself home court advantage and at least one
round to the playoffs. And the Rockets have been a
lot better at home this season. Again twenty two to ten,
(45:56):
you get up to the two line, you're in position
to have home court advantage and at least two rounds
of the playoffs. So there's a lot of benefits if
you can chase down one of these teams in front
of you. And I feel like when the Rockets were
losing games have been more focused in the teams behind
the Rockets, just saying how do the Rockets hold on
and make sure they're in the top six. Well, now
that things are stabilizing. Let's look at the teams ahead
(46:18):
of them, because even though the Rockets are still at five,
there's two games of separation between the Rockets at five
and the Denver Nargets, who are currently at two. The
lost column, which is what matters the most. Nuggets have
twenty three losses, Lakers have twenty three, Grizzlies have twenty four,
Rockets have twenty five. Rockets already have the tiebreaker over
the Grizzlies. They have a lead in the tiebreaker over
(46:42):
both the Nuggets and Lakers, although it's still to be
determined based on individual matchups head to head that is,
and how they go down the home stretch of the year. So, Pawlo,
I'm curious your thoughts on which of the three teams
in front of the Rockets it's most likely to be caught.
I think a lot of people would say Memphis because
(47:03):
they're only a game ahead now, they're likely to be
without Jaron Jackson Junior, who's framed an ankle for at
least another week or so. But I'm actually leaning to
the Lakers. They've lost two straight games since Lebron's trained
has grown. It's an issue he struggled a lot with
over his career. Everybody talks about Memphis's schedule being difficult.
(47:23):
It's the fifth most difficult according to Tankathon. For the
remainder of the season, the Lakers is even harder. It's
the fourth most difficult. We're perfective. The Rockets are at fifteen,
the Nuggets are at eleven. The Lakers have lost to
in a row. They're the one exception to the general
rule of teams in this two through seven mix. You
know winning now that you know, the gap between the
(47:45):
try hard teams and the tanking teams is wider than ever,
and especially when you look at their schedule over the
next couple of weeks that they're likely to be without Lebron.
They have two different back to backs in the next
eight days against the Nuggets in the Bucks, which is
crazy to have back to backst consecutive weeks against the
same two opponents and opponents in different conferences. Nonetheless, the
(48:08):
Lakers are probably without Lebron, going to be underdogs in
all four of those games. I think you can also
argue that, you know, I think people are down on Memphis,
but their point differential for the year is almost plus
six per game, and they've been just very unlucky in
close games. They're probably due to win some of those,
and in fact, they had their last two. They came
(48:28):
back to beat the Pelicans and held on against the
Suns the other night. The Lakers their point differential is
less than plus two, So they've been a little lucky.
And as good as they are with Lebron and Luca,
well a, Lebron is out for the time being and
b there's not much tape. Just so if we talk
about the Rockets being able to sort of use the
(48:51):
double big lineup even more now because there's not a
ton of tape for opposing teams to know how they
want to attack it. The Luca trade happening on the
fly means that there hasn't been a lot of tape
on how this new look Lakers team functions, and so
it makes it even easier to sort of just ride
the brilliance, especially in close games of your two transcendent guys. Well,
now you take away one of the transcendent guys, and
(49:13):
you have more tape on how the new look Lakers
look and how they function. To me, that's that team
is the one that looks like a sitting duck to me,
especially when their peripherals have been underwhelming all along. Yes,
I know some of those peripherals were when they had
Anthony Davis and not Luca, but still I think they
apply to an extent. And when you look at the
(49:35):
schedule coming up without Lebron, when you look at the
trend line, I actually think it's the Lakers and not
the Grizzlies that are most likely to be caught. I
would brank it as Lakers most likely, Grizzly second, and
then Nuggets least likely, simply because you know, the Nuggets
had an Kola Jokic, they're at the two line right now,
and they have the easiest schedule of the three. So
(49:56):
my ranking of who the Rockets are most likely to
pass among those three and thus who I'm watching the
closest Lakers one Memphis to Denver three. What are your rankings?
Speaker 3 (50:06):
This is going to be really underwhelming because they're the
exact same I betically you expected me to say the
crazily sweat I'm actually not did. Actually, I'm also not
going to throw out of the reasons that you said,
because I think that they're more talented. I think they're
more well rounded, and I think they've just gotten really,
really unlucky. And the point of frontial, you know, speaks
volumes for it. I think, and this is not a
(50:29):
new take. We follow me on Twitter, and I think
I talked about this on the Pod. I don't rate
the Lakers as currently constructed. I think they're a flawed
team there, Jacks and Hayes is not reliable to be
a big man. You cannot You're not going to rely
on on Austin Reeves to go off for twenty points
like he has done what I think, he's everything over
twenty points over the last fifteen or twenty games, something crazy,
(50:52):
And especially with the flawed team the surprise facts for
Mickey kin while teams are adjusting, but eventually people are
going to figure out how you're playing. They're going to
figure out that you have a weakness. Besides that, I
also think that they're the most likely of these three
teams to have to rest players or have guys miss
(51:13):
the residual game because well, Lebron is just old and
Lucas coming off of an injury, and as you said,
to back to backs especially mean that you could probably
exploit to exploit that on the other hand, they will
probably be the most favorite team from officiating, which I
know is a contentious in the topic on the podcast.
(51:36):
But at the same time, as long as they make
the playoffs. I mean, the league might want them to
have a home might have want them to have home
guard offended. But from a logical standpoint looking at the teams,
the Lakers are me the weakest team. They also they
also are the team that I would rather play in
the playoffs, even though they have Luca Lawis Tarts. And
(51:58):
second it's the Christmals because I think that neither guts
had a rough start of the season, but they're in
full you know, like they're in full gear now and
they just beat the Thunder and you don't really need
much else. You don't really need to say much else
when you beat a team that is still in contention
to within seventy games, if they just win out the
(52:20):
rest of the season, if we're probably you know, you're
probably not going to be losing too many games, then
we have to you.
Speaker 2 (52:28):
Know, although the Five lose Jalen Williams in that game.
Speaker 3 (52:30):
But still, yeah, I think as long as we make
the playoffs, I'll be fine with it. I'm saying we're
talking about this, but I don't think it's too relevant
to me. And just as I say closing thought for
the pot my goal right now is get to fifty wins,
go ten and seven the rest of the way, and
I'll be happy whatever see that matches us up against.
(52:53):
I'd really rather not beat the Nuggets, but I think
the Nuggets are getting the two seed thats so it
won't matter anyway. I don't think we're dropping all the
way this seven. If we do, it's a catastrophe. So
between the Grizzlies or the Lakers, or potentially if we
got all the way to the two sea, which I
don't think is happening, maybe whoever is at seven. I
(53:15):
don't think either of them. I don't think any of
them are unbeatable. I think we have been with the Grizzlies,
so there's there's president for that. And with the Lakers
or the new version of the Lakers, I just don't
think they're as good as as people are making them
out to speak. So yeah, that's that's what I'm saying.
It's Lakers, most likely Grizzlies, and then the Nuggets, I
(53:36):
will say, just to spice it up, I'll throw.
Speaker 2 (53:39):
It back to you.
Speaker 3 (53:40):
We ranked them from most likely to the least likely.
Speaker 2 (53:44):
Do you think it's likely? Would you?
Speaker 3 (53:47):
It's more that we don't make it all first either
is more agitly that we do.
Speaker 2 (53:52):
I think they do it, and I might be a
little too high on this current three game winning streak,
but I do genuinely think the DS is showing positive signs.
I like the way the schedule shapes up, and I
think the Lakers I can't get past the peripherals. I
can't get past Lebron at forty with the growing injury,
(54:13):
and then the schedule. Look, I know the Rockets have
the tiebreaker over the Grizzlies, but I think you know
the Rockets do have to go to La twice on
March thirty first and April eleventh. As long as the
Rockets just win one of those two games, because they
only play the Lakers three times, they'll have the tiebreaker.
And if they don't, then it's probably a non starter
(54:34):
because if you lose two games to the Lakers, which
you would by virtue of going on to two, and
you're already two games back in the lost column, I
doubt the Rockets outplay them by four or five games
over the other, you know, fifteen games or whatever it
is left on the schedules for the two teams. So
I think, all in all, for this to be a conversation,
(54:56):
the Rockets are likely to need to win one of
those two games against the Lakers, and I think they
honestly can. I think the athleticism for the Rockets should
put them in a good matchup position against them. I've
seen you make that argument on Twitter. I agree with you.
And one final point that I would raise on the Lakers,
I've seen some say, well, the schedule is more difficult
on paper than it's actually likely to be because they
(55:18):
play the Thunder twice in the last week of the season. Actually,
they played the Thunder on Sunday to sixth and Tuesday
the eighth of April, which is about a week before
the playoffs or before they end of the regular season,
and about two weeks before the playoffs. In both games,
we're in Oklahoma City. Historically, that's when your playoff teams
are actually those that are secure in their seed, which
(55:42):
the Thunder are likely to be almost certain to be
at number one. That's when they're most likely to play
their regular because you don't want them to get rusty.
If it was the last weekend of the year, yeah,
they'll shut guys down because at that point, any rolled ankle,
like we just saw a men suffer against the Pelicans
can take you out. But you don't want guys to
get rusty from not playing competitively for two weeks into
(56:05):
the playoffs. So the fact that these two road games
Oklahoma City, I've seen the argument that, oh, that's artificially
making the Lakers schedule look more difficult than actually is
because of when the games are played. No, I think
the Thunder, assuming health, are likely to take those games
as sort of a you know, their true playoff test,
and then rest the final week of the year. So
(56:27):
I think all in all, it sets up pretty well,
and I think the Rockets are going to do it.
I'm going to be optimistic and say that they get
it done. I am worried about the Warriors, who have
a pretty damn soft schedule and the Timberwolves, who by
the way, have the softest schedule of any team in
the West, so it's not impossible the Rockets could get caught.
But yeah, if the Rockets run down a team it's
currently two ahead of them in the lost column. It's
(56:48):
hard to envision a world where they then get passed
by a team like the Warriors or Timberwolves that are
currently three or four back. So I think if we're
going to be optimistic and say that the Rockets catch
one of these teams in front of them, it's probably
difficult to envision a team that's currently three or four
back passing them at the same time, unless they go
on some historic winning streak of fifteen to twenty plus games.
(57:08):
Hopefully that will not be the case. Let's be optimistic,
and you know what, let's end the pod right there,
because it feels like some of our recent pods have
been on the more negative side. Now the Rockets have
won three straight games, we're talking about the actually potentially
passing team ahead of them in the standings. Hopefully that's
what happens over the remaining seventeen games of the regular
season for the Rockets, starting tonight against the Phoenix Suns. Anyway,
(57:29):
that's a good place to wrap it for today, And
if you want more content before our next show in
a week or so, the best place to get that
is online, where you can follow me on trepitter x
at Benjubo's and the show at the Logger Line. Of course,
if you go to the logger Lines page, you can
find our link tree of the bio that's got links
to her distribution partners like Apple, Google and Spotify. If
you be kind of have to subscribe, leave pods review
at your location of choice, we would greatly appreciate that.
(57:52):
Also on that same link tree you can find links
to friends, sponsors, partners of the program. USA. Today's Rockets
are a card back Brewing Sports off seven ninety. Hitf
those links and you can enjoy their as well. All right,
with those plans complete, we'll journ for today for Paolo,
I'm Ben, Thanks as always for listening, and please come
back soon for another new episode of the Logger Line.