Is Amen Thompson launching the Rockets into contention?

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Cheers, Rockets fans, Welcome to The Logger Line, an exclusive
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Speaker 2 (00:20):
It is good.

Speaker 1 (00:21):
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Speaker 2 (00:38):
Thanks for checking out another new episode of The Logger Line,
again served to your courtesy of Clutch City Lagger or
Carbuck Brewing. I'm Ben Dubos, your host, editor of USA
Today's Rockets Square and contributor to Sports Talk seven ninety,
official flagship radio station of your Houston Rockets. As always
enjoined by Powlo Alves, our co host and producer out
of Portugal. You can follow him on Twitter, slash x

(00:59):
at powow Alves, NBA, me at Ben Dubo's so As
we chat this Thursday, January thirtieth, It's been a simply
incredible week and really month of basketball for year Houston Rockets.
Since we last recorded a week ago, we talked about
the difficult schedule coming up. Two games against the Cavs
at the top of the East, then a road game

(01:19):
against Boston, the defending NBA champions and then second night
of a back to back in Atlanta. I don't think
we officially set expectations Palow, but I would have been
satisfied with two and two, and even one in three
wouldn't have been the end of the world. Somehow, the
Rockets won all four. Houston is now thirteen and four

(01:40):
against the top ten teams in the NBA by record.
So for all to talk about the Rockets being a
tryhard team and built for the regular season, actually the
results are starting to suggest the opposite, which is that
they played disproportionately well against the best teams in the league.
As someone that's been an optimist all season long, even
my expectations have been blown away by this stretch. To

(02:02):
see the Rockets game after game, especially on the road,
which is recently as a year ago was their problem.
To see the Rockets now, I think seventeen and six
away from Houston, they actually have a better road record
than home record. The growth for all of this to
be happening so so quickly is just a phenomenal job
by ema Udoka and his staff. I could not be

(02:25):
more impressed. And now thirty two and fourteen, number two
in the West, which they will still hold regardless of
tonight's result. In Memphis, Rockets will be going for the
season sweep against the Grizzlies, although Houston already has the
tiebreaker by winning the first three of four matchups. So
as far as what we've learned, I think the place

(02:47):
to start our discussion has to be are the Rockets
a genuine contender at this point? Look, the top three
teams in the league all season long by record by
Prestiege have been the Calves, the Celtics, and the Thunder.
The Rockets just went three to ohero against the Calves
and Celtics two away from Houston. They've beaten the Thunder.

(03:10):
The last game against the Thunder they lost in the
NBA Cup semi final, but it was competitive in a
game where the Rockets couldn't throw it in the ocean
were still within five with like six minutes left to play.
This is a team that against the upper echelon opponents.
They beat Memphis twice. Earlier this month, they beat the Lakers.
With both Lebron and ad playing well, it seems ahead

(03:32):
of schedule. I think internally it is ahead of schedule.
Yet at some point you are what your results say
they are, and the Rockets are a team that you know.
NBA dot COM's weekly power rankings have them second in
the league, behind just the Thunder. I still think Okasee
is clearly the gold standard. It should be noted that
the win against OKAC and the competitive loss out in

(03:53):
Las Vegas, the Thunder didn't have Chet in either of
those games, and Okayse's average point differential of plus two
twelve point three per game is just off the charts.
By all the metrics. They're the best team in the NBA.
But if the Rockets are arguably the second best, you're
not far away, and maybe you get lucky in a series.
Maybe Luca or someone like that goes off the way

(04:15):
he did against the Thunder a year ago, maybe Shay
turns an ankle. If you're in that two through four tier,
not just in the West, but in the league, you
might make some serious noise this year, and in the
league where there's a lot of parody, and it's not
like the Thunder have a ton of MVP can there's
a lot of depth, there's a lot of good players,
but really SGA, it's the only true all star or

(04:39):
at least top ten level guy. They do have other
all star caliber players. You can certainly make the argument
for Jalen Williams and CHET don't want to undersell them.
But I guess before we go into any individual storylines,
are we at a point now more than halfway through
the year where we have to start taking seriously the
idea that the twenty twenty five playoffs or not just

(05:01):
about the Rockets gaining experience, the twenty twenty five playoffs
are potentially an opportunity that the Rockets can actually make
some noise. Is that a realistic expectation at this point.

Speaker 3 (05:11):
I hate to be the Debbie Downer. I'm not going
into it that way. Ah, it's listen. I will highlight
that going into January, the Rockets had like the third
hardest hardest strength strength with schedule remaining. They played the
Grizzlies twice, the Calves twice, the Celtics twice, the Nuggets swamps,
the Maps ones, and the Lakers ones. And they won

(05:34):
all of these games except for that one Celtics loss,
which I will add the caveat had no Amen Thombson,
no Taryason, and Nottibari Smith. Even though the Celtics did
not have Klen Brown and Al Horford. I think the
man Thombson has proven to be, you know, just unvalueable
difference maker for the team, and not having him by himself,
I think offsets that. And then new at ease and

(05:55):
then you at Tr' specular which was already out at
that point, and it's really just I kind of I
think it kind of justifies that loss. And so I
will say, listen, at this point, you have to start
reconsidering how good this team is just because of how
good they are against the best teams in the league.

(06:16):
You could argue that they played the Cats without mobile ones,
but they played them with MOREI in one anyways, and
more we had a stinker of a game, so maybe
that wasn't the case either. But I don't think we
are the second best team in the NBA. And I
do think that our style of play contributes to how
good we under our your season, and one turns relate
to the one translates well to the playoffs, not necessarily

(06:39):
because we can't feed good teams, more so because of
how we'll probably struggle in the half court. And I
think in the playoffs these teams will slow it down
and try to give us less opportunities first to be
running on the fast break, but then again, listen the
books when not on this team, it's we are forty
six games in at this point, teams know what we're

(07:00):
trying to do, and we are still being able to
do it regardless and generating the third overs and being
you know, on the fast break, and just a lot
of moving around, a lot of crushing the offensive defensive ports.
But I think at the end of the day, there's
it's with you know, this Genuary stretch some of the
symbol as well. It's also been punctuated by Kill and

(07:23):
Green being really really good. And it's when if you
look at the last you know, five games, there's a
couple of good games in there, there's also two or
three games that are not the best. And I think
he's kind of normalizing a little bit, not as hot
as he was going as he was because that was
never realistic. It was like fifty percent from three. But
I think as that normalizes, that will be as will

(07:45):
be especially hurtful for the team in the playoffs because
you're going to need that go to guy, and yes,
a man found some div look like he could be
that go to that with the game winner against the Celtics,
but then against the Hawks, and obviously the caveat that
is that he wasn't at full you know, got his
full strength because.

Speaker 2 (08:05):
Tanks for awn empty second I had a back to
back in which they got in at like four am. Yeah.

Speaker 3 (08:09):
Yeah, and he's questionable for the next game against the
Crizals as well. I'm guessing he'll play, but still.

Speaker 2 (08:15):
It is as questionable a man isn't questionable. But yeah, regardless,
the tank is still unempty, all right. Yeah, and we
actually saw as evidence of this, a men did not
play at the end of the first half. Cam Whitmore did.
It's funny all the discourse lately about Shoingoon getting pulled
for like ninety seconds early in the second half, actually

(08:35):
the end of the first half. E may played Cam
ahead of a men, which if you know what he
may prioritizes in terms of defense, you would think that
would never happen. And yet I do think in that
particular game it reflects that the men did not have
the juice that he normally does. So I think that's
just sort of adds to your point that a man
was not quite a man in that game. Probably not

(08:56):
because the Hawks did anything to take that away, just
that he didn't have a lot left after emptying the
tank less than twenty four hours earlier.

Speaker 3 (09:03):
Yeah, I think, you know, a little bit of of
of you know, not having Matuath in the tank is
offset by the fact that the Hawks are not exactly
the best you know, bound pounds or pound defensive team,
although I was listening to the Hawks commentary and apparently
they've been the best defense in the league for the
past six games.

Speaker 2 (09:21):
So Gwen is a really good Quinn Snyder a very
good defensive coach, like one of the better exes and
O's tacticians, So maybe there is something to that.

Speaker 3 (09:29):
Yeah, And I think, but we did see, you know,
a couple of us I think, especially later in the
game where a man was trying to make stuff happen
and he had yeah, kind of like that you know,
that spin move. I think, is it is it the
Neil Herder that has something similar on listen look at
the time making Yeah, yeah, we could be making good references,
but you know, like he leans ulderin and then he

(09:51):
spends with it's kind of like, you know, kind of
like silent. It's not exactly you know, turning getting to
the basket is just a kinderading space for the folder afterwards,
which is what a mandid a couple of times against
the Hawks. But I think in floter is at the
shot right, and I think especially in those, it's a
lot about rhythm. It's all about, you know, if you're tired,

(10:13):
it's harder to control. If rumuscles are tired or sore,
it's it's harder to control the force of putting into
it and with it, and especially if you're fatigued, you try,
you have to, you know, struggle more to do every
little movement, and I think that especially impacts a player
who wet the spot at the rim. If it's not
a duck, it's probably a tough Dutch floiter, and it's

(10:36):
tough for to regulate to be, you know, consistent on
those that have that that if you're tired.

Speaker 2 (10:41):
And I will say, in fairness to NBA officials and
someone should probably clip this because I'll never do anything
like this again. The last two minute report actually says
the rocket's caught a break and a man was not
fouled on that move where he went to the bucket,
and true true free throwers with like a minute and
a half left, which stopped the scoreless strout, because I

(11:03):
think we all know what happened. The Rockets went up
ninety six to eighty with about five six minutes left,
and that point, at that point they thought they could coast,
they were gassed. I think. Not only did they play
a night earlier, I know the Hawks did as well,
but the Hawks held most of their regulars out, including
Tray Young, and they were at home. The Rockets were

(11:25):
on the road and had to give everything they had
and men in particular against the Celtics to beat the
defending champs. And so when the Rockets went up ninety
six to eighty with five six minutes left, I think
they just sort of exhaled and said we've got this.
And the Hawks scored the next eleven and actually, excluding
that Shingoon dunk at the end that put the game away,

(11:46):
and I'm excluding it because it was a free one
the Hawks, right, Oh Jesus no, because the Hawks were
doubling and trying to trap Fred and Jalen and for
some reason they just didn't foul. And it's just a
freak play where quite frankly, you or I could have
laid it in so not to hate on Alfie, but

(12:07):
from an offensive standpoint, the Rockets did not generate that bucket.
The game situation generated that bucket and the unique way,
let's call it, that the Hawks chose to defend that.
But other than that, the only two points the Rockets
scored in the final five to six minutes of that
game since they went up ninety six to eighty, or
that a men Thompson drive was like a minute and

(12:29):
a half left and apparently the big guy for the
Hawks got it clean and the NBA missed the call. Now,
kudos to a men he made both free throws turned
out to be a very big deal when the Rockets
were holding on for dear life up to and that
three from DeAndre Hunter thankfully popped out. But without those
amen free throws. And by the way, credit to a

(12:50):
men in Shangoon for combining to go eleven of eleven
from the free throw line. Rockets nineteen to twenty eight
died every one of those, they might lose that game outright,
And so in this rare occasion, the Rockets actually did
get the benefit of the doubt from the officials. And
I think maybe it speaks to a man not having
quite the juice that he normally did, or maybe some

(13:11):
sort of adjustment, and that they went to the same
play the Rockets often do in these late situations, which
is the men bullyball drive, and it didn't work in
this case. He just got the benefit of the doubt
from the officials, and kudos to a man. He took
care of business at the line. Look, I want to
transition this into so there was a glass half full
and a glass half empty case for whether the Rockets

(13:34):
are legitimate contenders. And I'll start with what I view
as the glass half empty, because you already sort of
tied into it, which is the idea that some of
this advantage that they have could be eroded once you
get into a playoff setting, based on the stylistic way

(13:55):
in which games change and the one bit of cold
water that you could perhaps throw on the Rockets record
right now. So John Schoen at NBA dot Com, when
he did those power rankings with the Rockets at number two,
noted that Houston has the biggest discrepancy between records. I'm
reading this games not on second knive a back to

(14:16):
back twenty seven to nine and games second nive A
back to back three and five biggest discrepancy in the league.
So every team is worse on night tube of back
to back. That's just common sense. But the Rockets are
much worse than the average. Now they're four and five,
but come on, I mean that when barely scraping by
against the Hawks, I don't think it's anything that you say, Wow,

(14:36):
they have fixed this problem. And I think on paper,
there's a reason for this to be the case, which
is that the Rockets their formula for winning. I know
it's slumped a little bit of late, but for the
season overall, they're top four defense and they can still
tap into that in high leverage moments. We saw that
against the Celtics. And then offensively, because they aren't the
best half court team, a lot of their success comes

(14:59):
on offensive rebait. Well, when they're a little bit more guessed,
those effort advantages go away a little bit, and the
lack of skill or half court execution experience, whatever you
want to chalk it up to, can become a little
more important now when the playoffs there aren't back to backs.
I mean, that's the positive way you can look at it.
But the negative way is that because the games are

(15:20):
more spaced out, and because it's the playoffs, other teams
are going to be much more dialed in on their effort. So,
even if the Rockets aren't fatigued themselves for being on
night two of back to back, the normal advantages they
have over eighty two games being so dialed in and
using a formula that's dependent on crashing the glass. The
NBA's number one rebounding team, it being a huge part

(15:43):
of their offense, maybe that goes away a little bit
in the playoffs. And I think that's I think that's
sort of the case that you're making, right. I know,
it's a different way of looking at it because it's
not literally night two of a back to back in
the playoffs. In fact, you can make the reverse argument
that hey, there's no back to backs, maybe the Rockets
will be light out on the playoffs. But I do
think there's reason to have at least a little bit
of caution based on what we've seen at stretcher of

(16:06):
the schedule this year, when the Rockets aren't able to
clearly out effort their opponent. Is that sort of the
dynamic that you're getting into, not.

Speaker 4 (16:14):
Just for a man, but for the team overall, I
think it will play a role, but I also think
that you know, I guess I'll be the optimistic one
on this on this occasion, I don't think it will
be that big of a factor because I think it's
the difference is when we are on a second add
of a back to back, we can't.

Speaker 3 (16:32):
Reach our top of a lot of effort. The difference
between that and in the playoffs is that I think
our effort is like one hundred and thirty percent of
what other teams can produce, and on most nights those
teams produce eighty to ninety percent, and so the gap
goes from like fifty or forty five percent effort an

(16:54):
effort gap to a thirty percent effort gap. I think
we will still be able to get offensive rebounds because
we have athletic advantages. It's not just an effort thing,
and because our young guys their motor and and you
know how recent this doesn't stop men. Thumbt just doesn't
stop Dylan Brooks the same thing when when saying another argument,

(17:15):
I think changun coasts through first halfs of a lot
of the time. I don't think that happens in the playoffs.
For example, like there's does a mat for for us
two game there as well. And I think even if
both teams are giving their peak level of effort, we
or peak level of effort is substantially higher than basically
any of the team in the league besides maybe the

(17:35):
thunder uh. And I think we will have an athletic advantage,
a high advantage on most on most situations against against
probably most teams except for the Celtics maybe with the
associally and with and we'll we'll probably point out that
the Cavs have played too bigs, but I'll say they
played two bigs, but they played one of the most

(17:58):
undersized Black Cords in the league. And even though Fred
which is not the tallest guy, he's a pretty good
rebounder as well as far as boxing outcos and Jillen
is obviously aver athletic. Dylan Brooks is big and strong,
cups He's being instrument in the reguards. Jillen. You know,
I think we will still have that edge. Whether that
edge will be big enough for us to win seven, yeah,

(18:21):
it will be a different thing. And I will also
say that I am intrigued to see usn't with every
team or there's guys that price the education, right, and
there's guys that just play better when the playoffs go.
But I don't want to do this, but look at
the thieves, right, they look cheese perfectly the cheat for us.

Speaker 2 (18:41):
I'm kidding.

Speaker 3 (18:42):
I hope, I hope so no, But I will say
we have a full rotation of guys that have never
played in the plailm. I guess except for Dylan Brooks
and Freda Fleet, we have like six guys that have
never played in the playoffs, and we have no idea
how they will deal with that. And I think so
the most strong, that always happens. But some of them

(19:02):
I think will shine through. And I wonder you know
which players will fall into which categories, And I think
across the board, I think that that is no. I
think we play with a lot of effort, But I
wonder is that an extra year for us as well
as far as effort goes. Because of what I said
about King, King one typically sweaded in the second halves
and first halves because listen Kevin Brimm's last game or

(19:27):
people like the fact that he was just getting to
the room at will. I thought he was like so
basical and obviously being herded by this test and down Nils,
one of the best to those guys in the NBA
is not easy, but I felt he was careless even
besides the turnovers. A lot of the time, I want
to see a gentleman that's locked in from the start
to finish. I want to see, like I want. I

(19:48):
think that that's things that we haven't found out about
this team for the negative, which is what all what
everyone will bring up with am team. But I think
that there's edges for the positive that we just have
no idea will be there yet because we haven't seen it.
It's kind of like wrapping a Christmas present, all right,
we don't quite know, but something will happen and we
will have just a furthy of new information. It's just

(20:11):
a big mystery that we'll just get to find out
together about a lot of these guys. Which is you know,
which is why you know not needing the play and
is such a big blessing because one or two game
sample in the play and even though those are really
important games, it's not really the same thing. I want
to see that the through that it was through a
seven game sample or a four game sample, We've worst
case scenario or best case scenario for sweep. So yes,

(20:35):
I do think that our effort at decreases, but I
think we'll get it just elsewhere. And I think our
cap on effort is higher than basically any other thing.

Speaker 2 (20:45):
So you don't buy the theory that Jalen was intentionally
turning the ball over last night to get to that
stat where the Rockets are now six and oh when
they turned the ball over twenty plus times to the team.
You don't think Jalen was intentionally tanking get to ensure
the one.

Speaker 3 (21:01):
I don't. But I thought you were going elsewhere, really, Wed,
I thought, I know you you have your I know
you have a semid with with Nick right now, which
was one of one of my favorite guys to to
listen to, just from a sports commentators perspective, because I
like already hearticulates his points. Yeah, he spent the entire season.
Just forgot that. He spent the entire season saying that

(21:24):
the Chiefs during the regular season were trying stuff out
on purpose and that's why they weren't smashing teams preparing
for the playoffs. And I thought you were going to
make the same point about telling he was starting over
the all over on purpose just to try stuff out
so he can you know, be sharp when he goes
to the playoffs. I'm sorry, Yeah, that's not much, Chief Stock.

(21:44):
I know people are traumatized.

Speaker 2 (21:45):
Too, And for clearly I don't really have beef with Nick, right,
It's more that you know, quite frankly, he would. He
makes a lot of the arguments that I'd make for
my teams if I were in his position. It's just
not every team has a media member and a plat
form like that to help steer the national narratives. Now,
the one argument I do have a little bit of

(22:05):
beef with him. I think he's been very unfair with
how he characterizes James Harden's playoff record. But I think
and that's one of those things, and he's not really
an NBA guy to start with, but there might be
sort of just you know, a shick to that where
it's not even something that he totally believes, it's just
sort of, you know, a narrative that he's played up.
And you know how these things go on the national

(22:27):
shows where people just have their bits and it's just
a running thing. As far as Nick and the Chiefs, Yeah,
I don't really. I'm not really upset with him specifically.
It's just it's just a reminder. It's sort of like,
you know, the combi throughout the other day. It's like
in the aftermath of the Astros and the sign stealing scandal,
when the Dodgers and Yankees had all these you know,
affiliates out there guiding the coverage in a way that

(22:51):
Houston did not. That's what reminds me a little bit
with Nick. And so it's not about him specifically. It's
just that, you know, there's not equal representation for other
fan bases, if that makes sense.

Speaker 3 (23:02):
Well, no, I got to listen. I listened.

Speaker 2 (23:04):
He's a sharp guy.

Speaker 3 (23:06):
Yeah, yeah, I listened first things first every day except
for the week where the Texans lost it. He's because
I knew he was going to be unbearable. Like, I
know that he's very abrasive, but I did think that
he articulates and he makes good points. And I will
say about the James Harden stuff, he has to take
the season. They say, I knew what he says, that
Lamar Jackson is the James Sargan or the playoffs of

(23:28):
the NFL, in which he's just told level regular season guy,
and in the playoffs, you know, he has a couple
of good games. James Harden as as well, But at
the end of the day, just kinked it that, which
I think is sort of fair. And I think, you know, obviously,
James eventually, when he was when he found himself in
a situation where the team was incredibly talented in Brooklyn,

(23:49):
he was as efficient as he could possibly be, and
that I think people kind of didn't pick up on it.
I think kind of forgotten that to like, you go
and check his stats when he played with Brooklyn in
the playoffs and James Harterlan is like insanely good. It's
just that stuff to be just to be efficient plan
and the entire game plan of the other team is
to stop you. And becauseides the as whole was there,

(24:11):
there's literally nobody else.

Speaker 2 (24:14):
So yeah, I can accept that comp and I'll try
and shift back to the Rockets so that we're not
losing too many listeners. But I think I don't think
most reasonable fans view Lamar Jackson as a playoff choker,
because obviously he's had big games and quite frankly, he
played fairly well in Buffalo the game they lost. It's just,

(24:35):
you know, a couple of lapses here or there can
be the difference when the bar is so high as
the Chiefs with Mahomes or the Bills with Josh Allen.
The AFC is so loaded, and I do think that
Harden has some wortz with his consistency and have kept
him for being at the level of when he was
at his peak, especially his superstar peers. That is going

(24:56):
to keep him a notch below Steph Curry lebron kd
That's fair. What I dispute, and I think Nick would
probably agree that he's overplayed this at times is his
characterization that you know, James is the Clayton Kershaw of
his sport, and by that I mean a guy who
goes from superhuman in the regular season to average at

(25:18):
best in the postseason. And that is not the case.
James has still been a very good player. There's just
I don't even know if warts is the right term.
There's just a lack of consistency that is needed to
have a chance when the bar is so high. You
got to win four to seven against step Korey in
his prime.

Speaker 3 (25:36):
Yeah, quite like Lamar. Like Lamar is not He's just
not regular seasonalmar He's just not the MVP fair.

Speaker 2 (25:45):
I guess what I'm saying is Lamar Jackson is a
better comp than Clayton Kershaw. I can live Clayton Kershaw.
That's the one. I'm like, that's just stupid.

Speaker 3 (25:52):
That is stupid. And I don't get that reference because
when I started walking baseball, that dude was Walstorn.

Speaker 2 (25:57):
He's always looked watched to the postseason even before recently,
like his career numbers is I want to say, like
it's four three, four four for guy who's had like
numerous years with an era right at like low twos,
Like he has always become a different guy, which is why,
of course it's so funny. You know, one of the
best articles at the peak of the Astros outrage, one

(26:18):
of the ESPN guys did a deep dive on Game
five of the World Series, the one that was thirteen
twelve in twenty seventeen, and the premise was, look, I
don't know if the Astros had a system or not,
but Clayton Kershaw was not good in this game. The location,
the movement or lack thereof, it's just you know, classic
Kershaw in the postseason and again he hasn't been bad,

(26:38):
but just the difference between best in the sport versus
mediocre has been stark. It would be silly to call
James Harden mediocre in the postseason, just as it'd be
silly to call Lamar Jackson mediocre in the postseason, just
not quite at the MVP level, at least not consistently.
And yeah, if you're going up against Stephen kd in
their primes, or if you're going up against the Patrick

(26:59):
Mahone Homes era Chiefs and the modern AFC, then that
can make all the difference. Yeah, I can live with that.
That's fair. Anyway, back to the Rockets. We've gone on
about other sports too long, So the caution that I
would throw would be that back to backstat I think
you did a good job pushing back on it a
little bit. Why it may not correlate perfectly with the

(27:22):
playoff setting where there are no back to backs, but
other teams are dialed in a little bit more. The
glass half full way to look at the recent surge
by the Rockets in addition to just you know the
fact that they've beaten good teams, obviously that should extrapolate.
That's all the information that we have, but in terms
of projecting, it's how they're doing it on the back

(27:42):
of a men Thompson who this month, you know you
talked about which guys are likely to shine on the
playoff stage. The competitive edge that a men plays with
makes me think he's going to be one of those guys.
And now he started sixteen games. By the way, tonight
is or today is a men's twenty second birthday, so
happy birthday. Thompson. Doing what he is doing at twenty
two years old and he's been twenty one in year

(28:05):
two in the NBA is just phenomenal. And in sixteen
games as a starter, eighteen points right at eleven rebounds,
four assist, about two steals two blocks per game on
better than fifty seven percent shooting, absolutely phenomenal, all while
being one of the best defenders in the entire league,
likely first team All Defense, can guard one through five.
I mean, for all the talk about him being a

(28:27):
dynamic perimeter defender, which he is, just ask Evian Mobley
about how he can defend the post as well. This
is a guy who to me is likely to step
up his game in the playoffs. And for all the
strengths of all per in Shangoon and Jalen Green, and
my bet is at least one of them will be
an All Star hopefully, and Shangoon more likely will be
the one is named at All Star Tonight when the

(28:48):
reserves are announced by the League office. But even if
he's not, the odds are I think there will be
an injury replacement or two that that's usually the case
in the couple of weeks then up to the All
Star Game. So even if the Rockets don't have an
All Star tonight, gun to my head, I think they do,
but I think they get one through an injury replacement,
and so at the end of the day, it's more

(29:08):
likely to be I'd say eighty twenty Shangoon, small chance
Jalen Green because he's the leading scorer and he's been
really good the last month to six weeks. But I
think they're at the front of the line. They're certainly
ahead of a Men because they have more pedigree, they
have more experience, the narrative's been building for longer, and
so on and so forth. Yet I think we both
agree that on a permanent basis, A Men has been
the most impactful player when it comes to winning on

(29:30):
this team. You're starting to see him catch on nationally.
This week, after the game winner in Boston career high
thirty three points, we heard Stephen A. Smith calling the
future star really the talk of the NBA this week,
not just here in Houston, but around the entire country,
the world. Everybody's been gassing up at men Thompson for
good reason. And now that he's playing starters minutes since

(29:52):
Jabari Smith Junior went down that it's not just saying
he's the most impactful player on a permanent basis. Well,
now that he's averaging almost thirty eight minute per game
in these starts, he's just the most impactful player period.
And so my question for you follow is that if
this continues, and I'm simply talking about his recent level
of play, I'm not going to talk about, you know,
if or when he takes further steps, which he certainly can,

(30:15):
but time will tell us whether that's this season, next season,
exactly what that looks like. I'm just talking about what
we've seen this month since he became a full time starter,
because I do think that most of this is sustainable.
Like you always have to throw out the caveat that
young players and small samples that can get fluky. Jalen's
had some hot runs that haven't always been sustainable. But

(30:39):
I think with Jalen the formula has always been a
little more volatile because it's about the long range shooting.
The floor isn't super high because he's not really an
impact defender, he's not super physical with the men, because
his formula isn't as dependent or really dependent at all
on long range shooting. Because he is such a dynamic defender,

(30:59):
because he is such a physical marvel, one of the
best athletes in the league, incredibly physical, the floor to
me is very high for a MEN. I don't see
any reason why, barring injury, this isn't sustainable. And when
you look at those numbers I just laid out for
a Men as a starter, and you combine it with
being a two way force, a dynamic defender that can

(31:22):
guard any position in an increasingly positionless NBA, that's even
more valuable to me. That might be a top twenty
five player already when you look at how he dominates games,
when you look at the totality of his contributions, and
that's where at least consistently the Rockets were previously lacking

(31:45):
for all of the strengths of Shingoon and Jalen. I
don't know if they're quite in that tier. Maybe Shingoon
is when he's at his best, but this year he's
had the issues with finishing that we've talked about in
previous pods. And so if the Rockets truly have a
top two level guy and I mentioned Top twenty five
because you know, the All Star team has twelve players
per conference, I think a Men Thompson is an Star

(32:07):
worthy player. I don't think he will be because I don't
think the experience, the narrative is there for him yet,
but I think he is legitimately an All Star caliber player.
And if the Rockets actually have that, it undercuts the
narrative that's been working against them all season long, which
is that, hey, when they get to the playoffs, other

(32:28):
teams that they may be matched up against have players
that can hit a level that the Rockets young guys
at least consistently can't be expected to. Like let's say
the Rockets hold on to the two seed or fall
to the three, and then they play a team like
the Minnesota Timberwolves, who are the six or the seven
and don't have home court advantage, but they have Anthony Edwards,

(32:49):
a guy who and we just saw this a month ago,
that game at the end of December, when the Rockets
dominated Minnesota for most of that game, and then Ant
went turboonuclear in the last five minutes and pretty much
stole it by himself. The Rockets don't have a player
or weren't believed to have a player of that caliber.
And I'm not saying a men does it in the
same way. Obviously a man is not the long range

(33:11):
shooter or anything close to that. But if the totality
of the impact is legitimately top twenty five or higher,
then all of a sudden, the narrative starts to shift
and that hey, maybe the Rockets have one of these
guys that can take over a fifty to fifty type
playoff game and get you to the finish line. It's
worth noting, in my opinion, you know, we saw a

(33:31):
men execute in a half court late in close games
on the road. That's where I think avoiding the play
and tournament. You mentioned that earlier, a lot of young
teams if they lose that game one and or Game
two at home, as a favorite playing in the playoffs
for the first time, it could be very easy for
that to sort of spiral and you go out sad
in five games something like that, because it's tough to

(33:53):
you know, flip the momentum on its head on the road,
which is what you need to do if you if
it's one to one or you're down to the rockets.
Playing this well on the road suggests that they have
a lot of mental toughness on top of their physical gifts,
and that to me will suit them well in a
longer playoff series. And it's why I'm thankful that they're

(34:14):
going to get a longer playoff series, because even if
it starts poorly, okay, well, they're not going to be
afraid of going on the road and alo chance to
know claud their way out of it. If that's what
it comes to in a way that you know, if
it's just a one game scenario, I don't care if
you're at home or not. Anything can happen in a
one game scenario, as you were saying earlier. So if
a man is legitimately at this top twenty five level,

(34:35):
and I can tell you there are some people inside
the building at toirazinator that think he is already that
he is already that caliber player. It changes the narrative
for this team. In my opinion, it makes the Rockets
have a higher gear. And I'm not saying that it
puts them at the top of the line when it
comes to contenders, not saying they should be anything close

(34:56):
to a title favorite this year, but it makes it
easy year to see a path where they can be
competitive in the playoffs, where they can legitimately have a
chance against almost anybody. Again, I want to see how
they play the thunder when check comes back before I
make anything declarative on that front. But a Men Thompson
at this level, if it's sustainable, not even talking about
taking further steps, just what we've seen from a Men

(35:19):
this month and as a starter this year, I think
it's top twenty five. And if they have a legitimate
All Star caliber player, which I think a Men is
on a consistent basis, to me, that changes the profile.
What's your view on not just a Men's growth where
he is now, but what it means for the overall
sealing of the team once we get to April, and
may I think.

Speaker 3 (35:40):
A man playing this well, I think first of all,
to address them the top twenty five, and they also
have discussion that I want to it. I think with
a man, the most important thing for me for this
season is for him to make all defense or steam
we need to do. We need to have established within

(36:02):
the entire NBA that this guy is one of the
five best defenders in the league. In my opinion, he's
the second best defender in the league. I think it's
his second or third. I think wenb square number one.
I think he just can't do what he does. But
I think besides that, I mean, can room protected at

(36:22):
an elit level, can defend well through five an alit level,
can defend on ball and defend off ball, can literally do.
He's a good communicator, good to litt rotations, He's good
at literally everything. He has good hands, he has literally
everything the defender can have. He has that twaticism, obviously
the size, and so we need to first establish this

(36:44):
guy before he even makes the jump to being an
offensive star. This guy is one of the three best
defenders in the league at twenty two years old. Previously
twenty one. He was already at twenty one, and so
once that's established, now we can start taking them into
consideration when we come to All Star and Top twenty
five discussions. It's the same thing with It's the same

(37:05):
thing with Raymond, right. Draymond had no or Bent Simmons,
they have no cams at being a top twenty five
on an All Star until they gained the defensive reputation, right,
So we got to establish that with the men, which
is why I need him to be All Evens first team.
I think that actually, you know, discussion that he is,
but he needs to make a couple of those just

(37:27):
so teams, you know, just so it's a given that
this guy is one of the best defenders in the
and then when you combine that with what he's doing
currently offensively, I do think that at the level where
that he's currently showcasing, he is the top twenty five player.
And then besides that, when it comes to his impact
in the playoffs, I think he benefits a lot from

(37:49):
playing with lingun Uh and the fact that you know,
Klingwol creates a lot of chaos and he then event
friies in that chaos when from when King's triple Team
and the teams, teams start using their matchups off and
start losing their assignments offensively, a man just driveing that
in that situation, teams of Toko to box out because
the shot came off of someone who's getting triple team

(38:11):
teams don't know who they're supposed to defend on cuts,
then that's the chaos. The man drives it. And then
that also opens obviously opportunities for Singing to pass on
the ball on valves and cuts on on you know,
rapper and passes on everything on them as well, and
so whoms you take that energical situation. I think the

(38:32):
it factor for us in the playoffs, as I said before,
will still be given Bean. This is the guy that
can transcend whatever whatever the defense is, do it. I
think at this point I still don't have enough information
on the men to be able to say, hey, just
give them the ball and let them go to work.
The handle isn't good enough quite yet. But I do

(38:52):
think he can take over games in the ways that
he did take over against the Celtics. For example, It's
kind a lot of rebounds, a lot of cuts, a
lot of second of second tams points, and a lot
of fast break points. And then occasionally when the matchup
is right when the wall pressure. Because Celtics are a
good offensive team, a good defensive team, but without Derek White,

(39:14):
they're not necessarily ballhawks right them. Bere Thereatum is a
good defender, Browns a good defender. They're mostly you know,
contested Sheltie of defenders under them really pressure the ball
and take it away, which is what Evan struggles with
because if he is being gunted by a wing and
it's not Tarry Eastern or Kawhi Leonard, he has the
ability to just be strong enough to like he did

(39:36):
in the game winner, to bump people off their spots
and get a photo off. And if he's hitting and
he's touches right and he's not in the second half
of a back to back, we will over the next
week at Marva. Sample on this, I think that in
the last two games there were literally points that at
which he may look. I said, hey, you are our
best option to go get a bucket, Go get a bucket.
And when did right?

Speaker 2 (39:57):
And I think the game in Boston it's a high
level just it gets.

Speaker 3 (40:01):
Exactly and the second last possession or the first attempt
at an bounds before the foul, they were already trying
to get him and thump on the ball.

Speaker 2 (40:09):
So by the way, that go ahead bucket that a
men had with about a minute left, it gets forgotten
because there were so many big plays on both sides
and all, yeah, that little fade away like from the
right side about eight feet just elevating over a big guy.
That was a phenomenal shot with a ton of touch,
something that you wouldn't think a man had when you

(40:31):
look at this draft profile one.

Speaker 3 (40:32):
Under and so I think there's definitely room in the
right matchup sts him to be that guy. But to me,
the guy that puts this team through a tough playoff
series where hey, give it to Alexander's just going off
and we can't keep up with him, or you know,
we had we got kind of luty that Tatum only
woke up in the second half where Tatum's going off

(40:54):
and there's nothing you can do because we can play
really really good defense. But then are the guys they're
going to get a shot off anyways, and if they're hitting,
there's nothing to do. Tatum is too big and too
good of a shooter for for you to be able
to guard them. If he's really hot. Shaye with his
craftiness and his floaters and his little mithering shots and
all and all of the cameras that he has. If

(41:16):
he's on, there's nothing you can do about it. Get
the calves with Darvan Mitchegll not so much because I think, well,
maybe if you have shingle in the pick and roll,
it's hard to stop them, as we saw when they
were making all those threes. But in Ieso, I think
we can handle them pretty pretty well, which I think
is what the Pilariofs bailed on to a lot of
the time. But the only way we can keep up

(41:36):
with someone like that if they're really you know, in
a playoff game, is Gillandring just being insanely hot, because
at that point, listen Jaalen gets I think.

Speaker 2 (41:45):
Or Gel goes for thirty six.

Speaker 3 (41:47):
Well, well, yeah, it's tougher for Dylan to get to
get the shots, right. I think Jalen gets the most
the best opportunities on the team to take good shots, like,
he generates the best shots. Probably is that it doesn't
make him some some of the time, right, but he
generates the best chots because of his authoricism, his quickness.

(42:09):
You know, truly, he can be really hard to guardle An.
He's hitting in a way that you know Shaven can
get great shots, but it's in the post. It's easier
to double the post. It's easier to triple team the
post and just stick him out of the game versus
given where you can you can throw a you can
throw double team, and you can plit someone on the
pick it over. It's stuffer to recover from that, then
it is to recover from a double team in the post. Uh.

(42:30):
And so because of that, I think Kevin is the
X factor if he's really hitting. If we if we
have to keep up with an offense that we can't stop,
Jiven is the guy. But if if it's a tough
game and we just need timely buckets, I think a
man can do the job offensively and contribute enough and
contribute massively defensively. As to being just the X factor

(42:52):
as well, it's just a matchup. I do not think
he gives the Celtics the The Celtics are a weird
case because the Celtics can be an insanely good offense,
so Jaalen will fit more the type of the type
of matchup. But at the same time, unless they're quite splaying,
which we didn't get to see. He isn't then a
man Thompson might be as he was the better matchup

(43:13):
there for the guy's take over against the Calves, I
think it has to be Jillen Green just as a
as a result of the Calves playing is truly big.
And then against that thunder, I think it has to
be if Kid's playing, I think it probably has to
be Jellen as well. I mean it's tough. I fin
out just to me the filler on a broken team,
but I don't know how you beat them.

Speaker 2 (43:34):
We Yeah, just to.

Speaker 3 (43:35):
Put your desired question into when why put a little
riven on it? I think a man can still be
the best player on the team, but the X factor
will would still be killing because it's a matchup thing
in the playoffs, it's not necessarily the best player from
a team in the playoffs isn't necessarily the best player
during a series because it's so much a dependent and
because of that, I think given in most matchup would

(43:58):
be the X factor because what he brings we lack
more than the man. I think it boils down to that.

Speaker 2 (44:04):
And as far as how the Rockets measure up with
the Thunder. They'll actually have two opportunities. I didn't realize this,
but there's still two Thunder games left on the schedule,
one on March third n OKC and another on April
fourth in Houston. The reason for that is while the
Rockets have played the Thunder three times, the third with
that add on game because of the NBA Cup, So

(44:26):
the Rockets will actually have a couple of games left
against the Thunder. I'm with you, they seem to be
on a different planet, so it's tough for me to
get to the level of seeing the Rocket as a
legit contender just for that reason, although I guess we'll
see how they match up. Crazier things have happened. Then again,
the Rockets have been competitive with the Thunder, although you
do have to put the asterisk that Cheded Holgren was

(44:46):
not out there in those two games. I think a
way to sum up all of this, I think we're
largely in the same place, which is that at this point,
the Western Conference Finals is a realistic goal, not saying
that should be the expectation. Obviously, there's a lot of parody.
There's these teams towards the bottom of the West, where
you know I mentioned Minnesota with Anthony Edwards as an example.

(45:08):
You can also throw out the Suns with Katie and Booker.
We'll see where the Lakers and the Clippers end up.
Some of these very top heavy, star laden teams that
might be a little more dangerous in the playoff setting
because they can have their veteran stars play a few
more minutes. It would not be fair to say the
Rockets fell short of expectations if they don't make it

(45:28):
to the Western Conference Finals. This is not twenty seventeen,
twenty eighteen, twenty nineteen, This is nothing like that. However,
I do think it's fair to say that the Rockets
can make the Western Conference Finals, which I don't think
we really thought even a month ago, certainly not two
months ago. I think at this point it is a
realistic goal. And then at that point everything would be gravy.

(45:50):
I mean, who knows, Maybe you get lucky in the Thunder,
somehow get knocked out, maybe Shade turns an ankle. But
based on what we do now, it's tough to see
a world where the Rockets. If, if everyone's at full strength,
are better than the Thunder this season, then typically the
NBA is a sport where to advance your god to
whin four times past seven, usually the better team advances.
It would be tough to say the Rockets are truly

(46:12):
a contender in a world where OKAC exists, at least
not yet. However, if the Rockets can stay in the
top three and so you're on the other side of
the bracket from OKAC, I know you've got some thoughts on,
you know, matchups that might be good and less good
for the Rockets, But I think we're at a point
now where we can say the Western Conference finals is
a realistic goal. Are you with me on that?

Speaker 3 (46:36):
With the right matchups? Maybe I think I think I've upgraded.
I think we should expect a playoff serious sweep unless
we get brilliant a a queen that tip. But I
think it's realistic to say Western Conflans finals, depending on
how the West takes up in the same a step.

Speaker 2 (46:50):
I think there are three no against Memphis, yeah, yeah.

Speaker 3 (46:52):
Which is yeah exactly. But the thing is, I'm more
worried about the first round MATCHIP than I would be
about the Grizzlies, And with the Grizzlies, I think we're
not this season's Jamoran so far has not been typical Yeat.
He's had a terrible season on all cans. If you
go check his stats, he's barely twenty points a game

(47:12):
and we don't have an answer for which is one
of the things that I would like to address at
the deadline. We don't have an answer for Jeron Jackson Slender.
A man can guard them, Tarik and Garden, he's too
tough to guard. We kind of need the guy to
put on him.

Speaker 2 (47:28):
It's just baby Sari. It's worth noting he wasn't out
there the two matchups earlier this month, but I get
your point.

Speaker 3 (47:34):
Yeah, he sees is a really tough matchup for as
he's always been even throughout the rebuild. So I think
there was a scan play better than what they did
against us. But I think we match up against against
them well enough. My worry is if we get currently
looking at it, we're currently the second seed, we will
obviously get the eighth seed or whoever comes out of
the player which I which I would guess are the

(47:54):
top two teams that are currently there. I think the
Wolves and the Sun fall. With those teams, maybe the
MAVs over the Sun if Lucas back and they're firing
at that point. But yeah, let's call it the timmer
Rolls end up at seven and the MAVs end up
or the imagined up being the eighth, and those are
the eight teams that are in the playoffs. I think
the MAVs are a fine match leap for US when

(48:14):
the local always tortures US. I think the Suns are
a good matchup for US. I think the Clippers are
an awesome matchup for US. So I'm hoping that as
the Timberrels find their footing, they get to six, Clippers
fall to seven, and we catch the Clippers. That's ideal.
But if we catch the Wolves at seven, I find
it really tough to see US winning a playoff series

(48:37):
against them. It's just the way we played them this season,
and a man was not starting at the point at
that point, and we did beat them ones, but they
were really just play us really tough, and and and
and always goes off against US, so I could see US.
I think it's more likely that we got to get
knocked out by the timber Wolves, or maybe the Lakers

(48:57):
are a wheel matches first as well with the uh
if if we're shooting well enough, one of those teams
out in the first round rather than the Grizzes in
the second round. But I think it's very realistic that
if we catch the Clippers at the first round, I
think that might be even be a sweep, and then
we go we take that momentum into the Grizzlies series

(49:19):
and I think that's a winnable series as well. Then
at the at the concrete finals is really tough, But
I will say there's I think there there's an argument
to be made and we'll talk about this later and
when we do playoff talk, there's antherment to be made
that we might want to drop to the third seed
because we are so much better on the road and
Kalen is so much better like killing splits on the road.

Speaker 2 (49:42):
But I get that, I get your point. The splits
are legitimately insane.

Speaker 3 (49:46):
Like Killen is like a superstar of the role. And
I don't know why it was so we need saying
he was. He was the do you remember he was
the opposite Year one. He was in saying at home
and just terrible on the road. You know it's the opposite. Well,
he's not terrible at home, but he's the superstar on

(50:07):
the road, so then might be an argument teammate it
you might win the game seven to be away. But
other than that, I think it's realistic for UST to
make the conference finals. But I would consider the successful
season making it past the first round, and I will
go see that it's still a successful season if we
lose in the first round. But it's the Timberwolves in specific.

Speaker 2 (50:28):
Yeah, although I personally think that the timber Rolls will
end up getting on that four or five line. That's
my expectation because as bullish we are in the Rockets.
Because I've gotten through this difficult scheduling stretch of January,
Rockets now have the second easiest schedule in the West.
The rest of the way. The easiest is the Timberwolves.
So you look at them being at this point, they're

(50:50):
twenty five and twenty one, and they're just half game
back and the Clippers for six game and a half
behind the Lakers, who still have a negative point differential.
For number five. I think the Timberwolves, when it's all
said and done, end up moving onto the four or
five line. I don't know if they have the jews
to get all the way up to the top three,

(51:10):
but I think especially they are playing better. They've won
their last three. Obviously, they had the massive change right
before training camp losing Karl Anthony Towns, so it would
make sense as to why they're a little bit of
a slow starter. My guess is the Timberwolves take advantage
of a relatively easy schedule and with Ant there aren't
really any injury concerns that you'd think they're going to

(51:32):
load manage the way you know a team with a
lot of veteran stars like the Clippers or the Suns
or even the Lakers might have to do. So. I
think the Timberwolves end up making a second half run.
And so if the Rockets can stay in the top three,
and that's massive for a number of reasons, stay in
the top three to be on the other side of
the bracket from the Thunder, that's the ideal scenario on

(51:54):
a number of levels. Because I'm in agreement with you,
the Timberwolves are the toughest team in that you know,
five through ten and range. They're the last that I
would want to play. But the good news if they
are in the four or five line, that would also
potentially put them in line to play the Thunder in
the second round, and I would not pick the Timberwolves
to win that series. But if you have Anthony Edwards,

(52:14):
you have a chance. Crazier things have happened. I mean,
we saw the way the MAVs with Luca and Kyrie
were able to sort of steal some games late against
OKAC last year. I think they're better this year, but
the Timberwolves would at least have a fighting chance. So
that would be my hope. Hallowe anything else you want
to add before we close out.

Speaker 3 (52:34):
Yeah, I'll just say that's so we have it on
the reker that I'm even if he wanted to come here,
I'm out on Fox.

Speaker 2 (52:41):
You know what, Let's let's do this very briefly, because
the Rockets will actually play Minnesota next Thursday, which is
the day of the trade deadline, February sixth, so there
is a natural segue here, so sure, let's do a
little bit of deadline talk. I largely agree with what
Kelly Eco has reported in The Athletic this week. I've
heard basically the same thing from my conversations, which is

(53:03):
that if the Rockets do a move, it would be
for asset reasons rather than basketball ones, and that they
have some space beneath the luxury tax line. They have
their non tax pyramid level exception. So if they can
take on a contract to save another team some tax
dollars and get some future draft assets, probably you know,

(53:25):
two or three second run picks something like that, they'll
look at doing something along those lines, and then maybe
that player is available to you nearly into the bench.
But not only do the Rockets not want to make
a splash move like adurin Fox for reasons that we've
covered in recent pods. Plan A is simply the rebuild
working out, and right now it is Plan A is

(53:46):
your core seven, enough of them developing at a high
level to where you can build a sustainable contender organically,
And at this point there's hope that it can happen,
And so I don't think that they'll be looking in
there in Fox tier simply because there's way more upside
to just staying the course of these guys who are
all twenty three years old or younger and seeing what

(54:09):
happens at least giving them one playoff run, which to
this point is almost a certainty to happen. When you
look at where the Rockets are in the standings and
the separation. They're actually now seven games up in the
lost column on the Timberwolves, who are the closest team
in the play and range. So I think it's safe
to say there's going to be playoff basketball at to

(54:29):
this and are, particularly when combined with the fact that
the Rockets had the second easiest schedule in the West
the rest of the way. So if this isn't the
right time, and for reasons we've discussed in the past,
it's not, then that takes you out of the mega
trade market. And I don't think the guys that tier
ahead of Fox are going to be available. I don't

(54:51):
think someone I'm not sure they would do a Devin
Booker deal right now anyway, given what we've seen the
last two months from Jalen Green. But I don't think
he's going to be on the market in the next
week anyway, so that's pretty much non starter. So I
think Fox is probably at the top of the realistically
available at this year's trade deadline list, and I just
don't think he makes sense. He's not so good that
you would cut short the potential of the guys you

(55:13):
have in place, especially when you consider that you know
Jalen Green is four years younger than deeron Fox and
him what more six years younger, and so on and
so forth. But then the tier below dearon Fox, it's
so tough to upgrade this rotation where you're gonna have
either Dylan Brooks or Jabari Smith Junior coming off the bench,

(55:34):
you're gonna have well, you've had Tarry Easton coming off
the bench. Steven Adams in most matchups is extremely valuable.
Even your like tenth eleventh guys off the bench when
everyone is healthy, Guys like Jay Shantat and You're in
Holiday are really good players. It is difficult to upgrade
the rotation. And that's before considering that the chemistry angles

(55:55):
to all of this, Like to get a guy who
would clearly upgrade the road yet isn't a star, the
juice wouldn't be worth the squeeze, and that you know,
you don't have that many tradable future first round picks,
and I don't think it's worth it to upgrade a
non star spot, especially when you consider the chemistry angles
and how they're playing as is, and how many of

(56:16):
the rotation guys are so young period. I just don't
know what that would look like. And so because of that,
I tend to agree with Kelly that any deal that
happens to the deadline would be for asset reasons, for
business reasons rather than basketball ones, simply because the way
the Rockets are constructed doesn't make sense to get a
big name, especially if Fox is the best on the market,

(56:38):
And it just doesn't make sense to see how a
deal would come together for a mid tier name that
isn't a star. But I guess theoretically you could slide
them in as an upgrade to someone in the current rotation.
I just don't think that that would be worth the
asset cost to the Rockets, who you know, they want
to have a decent stockpile of assets for a superstar

(56:59):
moved down on the line should they need it. So
for all those reasons, I think it will be a
quiet deadline. I do not expect the Rockets to have
interest in Dearon Fox, even if Fox theoretically has interest
in Houston, as we speculated that he could. Fox is
a Houston native, and as we've talked about for weeks now,
it was likely that he would ask out a Sacramento
and apparently he has. With that said, I am interested

(57:20):
in following the Fox market, because I do think the
Rockets would like to have the Deer and Fox door
available to them this summer. And maybe it's not even
for deeron pifically. Maybe it's just about having as many
options as possible. But there is a world where if
things don't go well down the strutch of this season

(57:40):
and if some of these young guys he'd exposed in
the playoffs were the Rockets could be thinking a little
more trade heavy by this offseason. And so I think
the Rockets are hoping that Fox stays put, and I
think he could. I mean, it reminds me a lot
of when Anthony Davis, another rich Baull Schwartz client, in

(58:01):
late January twenty nineteen, put out his trade request that
had basically a one team destination the Lakers. In the
same way, it seems like Fox at this point has
a preferred destination in the Spurs, and yet the deal
didn't get done until that offseason. The Lakers are already
going to be there, and much the same way the
Spurs are always going to be there, because it's not

(58:23):
like the Spurs are going to win a championship this year,
even if they added Fox, and it's not like Deer
and Fox at twenty six years old as in championship
or bus mode right now, so that deal will still
be there. And yet there are other teams if the
Kings wait until the summer, that could enter the fray,

(58:43):
and even if they ultimately traded with the Spurs, it
could help from a leverage perspective. You've got teams like
you know, there have been reports that the Nets could
get involved for Deer and Fox. Wellnets don't want to
do that now because they're in full tank mode. But
if you wait until the summer, when that chraffkick is set,
maybe they are willing to, you know, get Fox if
all of the effects potentially the twenty twenty six pick
and not the twenty twenty five. And there's teams like

(59:06):
the Rockets that might go out sad in the playoffs
that want to poke around. And so I think that's
where the Rockets are in this. I don't think, you know,
they look at Fox as a nice player, but they
don't see him as transcendent. They don't see him as
in that you know, Devin Booker, Donovan Mitchell class that
we've known for months, maybe years, that they're interested in.
I don't think he's quite to that level in the

(59:27):
way he's viewed by the Rockets, but I do think
that in an ideal world, the Rockets would like him
to still be on the market this summer. Maybe their scenarios,
depending on how the playoff run goes, where Fox would
make sense for the Rockets, Or maybe it's a scenario
where Hey, like, just the more guys that are potentially
available in the trademarket this summer, the more likely one

(59:47):
of them is going to be available and makes sense
for the Rockets at the right asset costs, because you know,
maybe Fox goes elsewhere with then that takes the team
that requires Fox out of the market for a guy
that the Rockets are wanting to acquire. I think the
Rockets just want as many options available to them as possible,
So I think I guess the way I would characterize
the Deer and Fox trade situation and how it relates
to the Rockets leaning up to the trade deadline. I

(01:00:08):
don't think the Rockets will make a move. I don't
think they should make a move. However, I do think
in a perfect world they would like Fox to remain
on the market. Until the summer, simply because it adds
more options, and so I think that's where we are.
I think that's our realistic goal, because again I don't
see why either from the perspective of the Spurs or
Deer and Fox or the Kings for that matter, it

(01:00:30):
has to be done right now. He's under contract till
twenty twenty six, not like he's in win now mode
where he ask to win a title, or that the
Spurs can do that even if they acquired him. So
what I am hoping for is that he stays on
the market and everybody sholves this until the offseason, and
then the Rockets and everyone can sort of reevaluate where
they are by May or June. I think that's the
outlook for the Rockets leaning into the trade deadline. Paolo,

(01:00:52):
I know you had a little bit or it sounded
like you have a little bit of a stronger take
on being out on Fox. Please elaborate.

Speaker 3 (01:00:58):
So I think they should. I think it's been a mistake.
I mean, it's kind of a mistaken kind of isn't
to just outright say that they're not interested in this season.
I think I think he gets through this season. I
think he goes to the Spurs because I think, I mean,
he was kind of a little bit of reduced to
the Kings. In the same time, he didn't have to

(01:01:18):
do this so publicly and so like, well, I I
only want one team, and Anthony Davis. Yeah, but we
know from the James Outen situation that it sometimes helps
for you to weak out that you were open to
more teams even if you weren't, because your team is
not going to trade it for nothing, and you're giving
the leverage, all the leverage the Spurs, and we seem

(01:01:41):
to read secs before where the list eventually expands, even
if just for a leverage, just for let's give my
own my previous team some levere so they can actually
trade me. Otherwise they would rather just keep me until
the end of my contract versus the return that they're
going to get. But the thing to Rocket should have
shown interest in the sense that if they did the Spurs,

(01:02:05):
it would probably increase the price that the Spurs have
to pay. Even if they're not interested, they should, you know,
be in talk and saying, hey, we're interested in being
to give this up just to try and inflate the price.
Because the Rockets have a fested interest in the Spurs
not being that good. The Spis are going to the
sports are going to be insane for the next fifteen
years because Wenby is that good already. He's already to me,

(01:02:25):
it's top what five players in the NBA probably, And
I think that Fox is a good player. I think
he's an excell one fit with Wenby, But you don't
want to get them for to keep, and he could
be a little And the reason why I don't want
them for us is he could be a little bit
of a poison pill in the sense that he's going
to be making super Max money in two years more

(01:02:47):
likely than not, right, And so he's not worth that
type of money, and if you want to keep him,
you gonna pay him that type of money.

Speaker 2 (01:02:54):
Although let me jump in real quick, I do think
the Rockets are banking on the fact that the Kings
will leverage the potential of a team like Houston or
Brooklyn for that matter, into making the Spurs pay a
higher price if they get this deal done at the
trade deadline. So I think your point is well taken
on why the Rockets should have a vested interest in

(01:03:17):
making the Spurs pay as much as possible if they're
going to get to earn Fox and add him to Wemby.
I just think, and hopefully this is the way it
would play out, is that the Kings tell the Spurs, hey,
if you want to do a deal now, you are
bidding against not just what the other offers literally are
right now. But we don't have to do this in February.
We can take this until June, when we all know

(01:03:38):
there are likely to be other teams in the mix
that are more and sunavized to bid heavily. So if
you want to do this deal now, you have to
pay more. You have to pay a bit of a premium.
I think that's what the Rockets are sort of gambling,
and maybe other teams are as well. But the Rockets
or San Antonio being in the same division, the same
conference in state rival obviously have even more of a
vested interests there. But I think there can still be

(01:04:00):
some leverage simply from the standpoint of the Rockets and
other teams making on the Kings to say, hey, if
you're gonna trade them now, you better get an absolute
premium from the Spurs. Yeah.

Speaker 3 (01:04:10):
I just think doggets should play into it a little bit.
More just publicly. But I do see the argument that listen,
you have a nice thing going, you kind of don't
want that level that attention right now. Like we want
the attention on a man concient and how good he is,
we don't want the who we're trading for it. We
would have to give up to get them. So I understand.
I don't blame them for not doing it. This is

(01:04:32):
what I'm saying. It makes sense as well, just you know,
just just control the controllables and get and try to
isolate the team from any outside noise. The reason why
I'm I'm out on Fox in general is just a
man thumping. This one has shown too much as as
a as a lead ball handler for me to be

(01:04:52):
comfortable getting a guy that's gonna get paid that much
that I don't think can really play with the man.
And I think a man has the higher.

Speaker 2 (01:04:59):
Seal and cap his ceiling it iggy.

Speaker 3 (01:05:02):
Yeah, I'm not, And that's that's kind of crazy. He's stealing.
He's eggy right now. So I will say, it's just
it has to be a Volume three by shooting guard
next to him, next to many if he is the
point guard and Jeneral can become that, and he's more
likely to become that that than Foxes. It's just not
Fox's game. It was Fox's game for one season and

(01:05:24):
if you go and watch, if you go in and
check out his stats, actually that was his only season
like that. Fox have one really really good season and
now he's come back to what he was before that season.
And you know, now now that the season, the stats
for this year have normalized, I think you can tell that.
You know, that's just what he is. And he had
one old alfire season and when you looked at it,

(01:05:47):
it was two seasons ago, and so when you looked
at it as oh, he was really good two seasons ago,
and then last season he started off really well but
then fell off, and now this season is back so
that those to those insame stats like he was like
when we started talking about Fox, he was at sixty
percentral shooting. He's back to fifty six again. And so
and I just don't think he's quite the fit. He's
too expensive and I'd rather payment of quite that's quite honestly.

(01:06:10):
That and I think with general disconn salary and think
of having taken a pay cut, I think you can
probably get Tarry at fifteen to twenty million, I think
you can get at twenty twenty five million probably. I
think you can't keep all of these guys together if
you play your cards right, if you're paying someone fifty
four million or the year you kept and just I'd

(01:06:30):
rather not do that. And as far as the three
deadline goes, I'm not going to get into all of
the plans that I would have, but I would say
I'm not spending I'm not spending more than second round picks.
We only have three, three little ones as it is.
I would explore possibilities trading, taking on extra salary with

(01:06:53):
our middle level exception four more second round picks. I
would explore extending Steven Adams. I would exp giving kill
a deaf green one more year on his contract, or
they explore giving on your extension as well. And I
would explore trying to get within the guys that under
our price that second round picks. I would explore taking

(01:07:16):
a matchup specific guy for a position of me, probably
a center, because as we talk about the briggest spots,
Steven Adams is a very specific type of center, not
necessarily the best matchup for a lot of the picks.
In the league probably to see the drop big as well.
Shane Holm's obviously not. I think the Robert Williams stuff
really makes a lot of sense. Even if he doesn't play,

(01:07:38):
even if he's on the rotation guy on on on
the regular, he probably can't be, so he probably can
manage him to play, you know, forty to fifty games
this season and have that really huge bunch off the
bench with having him. I checked out because we talked
about Jon Jackson junior, how he held Jeron Jackson fared
against Robert Williams well back when he was with Boton
and he was the startup. I'm not going to look

(01:07:59):
at the Portland numbers because he's playing with the under
eighten and and all those guys. Just different contexts completely.
And he played two times against Boston and the twenty
twenty once in the twenty twenty two season twenty twenty two,
twenty three, and once in twenty twenty three twenty four,
and he had twenty points and fifteen points through shootings.

(01:08:21):
Of fucking it, beverl Ki is out to like fifty
eight percent, which is a lot crazy, But he don't
go off the way he typically goes off against us,
and I wonder how that matchup, you know, ends up
playing out, and he could be the guy that you
if he's if he costs the ground picks, he's you know,
a different type of center. He's kind of adding a
different weapon to your to your toolkit, and so it

(01:08:44):
makes a lot of sense. May he makes all of
sense for me? I don't think. I think it might
make hard sense to bring in a pure shooter. I
don't know who's who is available that would fit as
long as they only cost the caron picks. I think
it could make sense to bring in a small ball
five just in case. I don't know what I know

(01:09:05):
the time when with he's supposed to come back this season,
I don't know when he comes back, if he's how
he's going to come back. Yeah, I don't know how
he's going to come back, So it might make sense
that might be Jeff Green in the playoffs. Maybe the
stuff's make the argument to go get a small small
wall five. I can shoot, because if Jeff Green were
on another team, I'd probably argue for us to try

(01:09:27):
and do get up. So maybe maybe that that one
doesn't fit as well. But I'll be I'll be looking
at trying to get you know, extra weapons and versatility.
We line up shortly made it OCA, so we don't
have another calf situation where even the Celtics as well,
where we're just struggling guarding the pick and roll and
we or we're just struggling because Jilian Greens not knocking

(01:09:49):
down shots and Devin Brooks is not as well. And
now all of Ausden know what we do. So I'll
bring in insurance policies or or different kind of archetypes
to try and in specific playoff to have that extra
versatility because we have the salary to do that. You know,
while we can, we should pursue those types of opportuency
because just well back at the same thousand years we

(01:10:11):
had that rotation and that was the relation that we
were going to go with. It either got us there
or it didn't, and there wasn't a lot of optionality
besides the guys that we had in the rotation to
begin with, from this the beginning to the end of
the playoffs.

Speaker 2 (01:10:24):
Yeah, and it could be that a deal like that,
it's done in combination with taking on a salary dump
from another team, and that you know, if you're bringing
in a couple of second round picks for helping some
other team duck or minimize their luxury tack bill. Then
maybe you're more likely to send out a second round
pick or two to bring in someone like a Robert

(01:10:44):
Williams that can be used situationally and so on balance,
you end up right where you were before, and you're
recouping what you sent out. Yeah, I mean I could
see something situational like that happening. What I was pushing
back on is the idea of a Cam Johnson type trade,
someone that would cost at least one first round pick
but is not at a star level. That's where the

(01:11:06):
juice isn't worth the squeeze, and that the upgrade to
the guys who are in your rotation now is not
enough to the downside to offset the downside of not
having those first round picks available for future bigger trades
that you might need down the line. And I think
Jaron Fox is in that bucket as well, at least
based on how a Men and Jalen are currently performing now.

(01:11:28):
It's possible our views evolved depending on how the season
finishes out for Jalen and the Men, especially how the
playoffs go We'll see how Fred van Fleet ages as well.
There's a lot of variables that could change between now
in May or June. But based on what we know
right now, I don't think any of the name essentially
available in the first round Bucket makes sense for the Rockets,

(01:11:48):
simply because it's not enough of an upgrade. It wouldn't.
I mean, you're pretty much in the highest here you
can be short of adding a superstar, and someone like
that isn't on the market right now, and at that
point it just isn't worth the deal, especially when you
look at how deep the team already is and how
young the team is in the context of what you

(01:12:09):
would be losing in terms of your optionality for a
bigger move down the line, should you need it. And
then to close the loop on Fox as we wind
down the pod, I think it would be a better
pill to swallow to see him go to San Antonio.
But the one thing I will say about that the
Spurs are going to get somebody, there will be a
segment of the fan base that says, yeah, I just

(01:12:29):
don't let bit Santonio. Well, look, Wemby's a draw. If
it's not Deer and Fox, it'll be somebody else. I know,
in a perfect world, the Spurs would always be bad.
They're your division. It's going to be a nuisance when
both the Rockets and Spurs are contending at the same time.
But if it's not dear And, It'll be somebody else.
Quite frankly, I could see the argument that maybe it's
better that they spend a lot of their capital on
Deeron Fox because while a very good player, I don't

(01:12:51):
think anybody would consider him to be a truly great player.
I think Wemby would be the only guy in that
clear top ted even top fifteen level. So maybe it's
better that the Spurs use a lot of their assets
to get to Aaron Fox. And you do want to
make them use a lot of those assets, but just
from the standpoint of okay, then they don't have those
assets to turn around and trade for someone who is

(01:13:13):
potentially in that top ten or top fifteen level, which
I think we both agree that Toaron isn't at so yeah,
in a perfect role, the Spurs widn't get to Aaron Fox.
I just think the thinking there is just a little
too idealistic from some fans. If it's not Dear and
it's going to be somebody. The Spurs are going to
get a co star around Wemby. It's just a matter
of who that cost star is and exactly what age,
what tier he is in, and so dearon Fox wouldn't

(01:13:35):
be ideal. You want to make the Spurs pay up,
But I don't think it's the end of the world
either when it comes to you know how the Spurs
and Rockets match up long term, and you know who
the contenders are moving forward, not just well, Spurs are
gonna be contenders this year no matter what. Don when
we look at you know, the range of the twenty
twenties and what the rest of the window for the
Rockets looks like. Anyway, that's enough for one episode. We
can cover that in a future pod, especially as we

(01:13:57):
get to the off season, but maybe we'll talk about
it more next week. I suspect our next pod will
not be until after the trade deadline, because I think
it'll be relatively quiet for the Rockets, but we will
break in if news warrants between now and then, and
of course beyond waiting for the next pod. You can
also follow me and Polow on Twitter, where at the
Dubo's and at Palo Alves NBA Twitter slash x. You

(01:14:19):
can always get our insights right when news breaks, But
my expectation, based on what's been reported, what I've heard
from my conversations behind the scenes, is that it's likely
to be a relatively quiet deadline for the Rockets. You
could see an asset deal come together. You could see,
you know, a situational guy brought in who could make
sense in certain matchup configurations. As you were just describing, Paolo,

(01:14:40):
I think the Celtics game where the Rockets almost let
go of the rope when Boston went up twelve early
in the fourth quarter, taking advantage of that Steven Adams
lineup because the Rockets just could not stay in front
of whoever he was switched on to. That could be
something that you target, especially if you want to get
to the Western Conference finals or potentially beyond. But uh,

(01:15:00):
nothing to the level of first round picks. I don't
think fox makes sense. I don't think anyone clearly better
than foxes be available, and the guys and the Cam
Johnson to your nice players, but I just don't think
it's worth losing first round assets for the Rockets when
it wouldn't move the needle dramatically this season, and it
would limit your optionality down the line should you eventually
need something bigger. So we'll put a bow on this

(01:15:21):
episode there and until next time. I mentioned where you
can follow me and pollow on Twitter, but also the
show the logger line. Follow that, and if you hit
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that's where you can find links to all the friends
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Today's Rockets where Hartbark Brewing please consume their content. Also Apple, Google, Spotify,
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(01:15:43):
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Houston Rockets basketball. All right, with that, we'll finally put
a bow on this for Pollo Alves, I'm Ben Dubo's

(01:16:03):
thanks as always to all of you for listening, and
please come back soon for another new episode of the
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