Perception versus reality: What NBA Cup showed us about the Rockets

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Cheers, Rockets fans, Welcome to the Logger Line, an exclusive
podcast from the home of the Rockets, Sports Talk seven ninety.
The Logger Line, it's proudly served to you by car
Box Clutch City Logger.

Speaker 2 (00:20):
It is good Red Nation. Get Ready, Ready, Get Ready.

Speaker 1 (00:26):
The Logger Line starts now. Welcome aboard.

Speaker 2 (00:38):
At long last, the streak is over, but unfortunately, there's
still a lot more work to be done when it
comes to actually bringing a trophy or a banner to
the rafters at Toyota Center. So to recap both of
last week's NBA Cup knockout round games against the Warriors
and Thunder, as well as storylines for what should be
a weaker stretch of the schedule over the coming days.

(01:00):
That's what we're going to be discussing today here at
the lagger Line. As always, I'm your host, Ben Dubo's
editor of USA Today's Rockets Wire, a contributor to Sports
Talk seven ninety, official flagship radio station of the team.
I'm joined by Powo al for co host and producer
out of Portugal. You can follow him on Twitter slash
x at Poalo ALVE's NBA and me on there at
Ben Dubos. This show is again sponsored by Clutch to

(01:22):
the lagger of Carblack Brewing, their beer developed in collaboration
with the Rockets. You can follow car Back on those
same platforms at Carback Brewing. So as we chat this Wednesday,
December eighteenth, officially a week before Christmas, so happy holidays
to all of you listening. It's definitely been a very
interesting few days on the Houston sports scene. I'm not

(01:43):
going to talk much about the Astros because you know,
Jim Crane cheeping out on Kyle Talker and maybe Alex
Bregman as well, and the so called Golden Era probably
coming to a close. That's a different discussion for a
lot of reasons. I just don't want to bomb anybody
out as far as the other two flagship branch. If
I was to say that the defense is already championship

(02:04):
caliber and we're just waiting on when or if the
offense can get anywhere close to that level, I mean,
you wouldn't know if I'm talking about the Rockets of
the Texans, right. There's just so many parallels there when
you look at not only the current status of the teams,
but the moves and the timetable. Each franchise made the
big move in calendar year twenty twenty three, bringing in

(02:27):
Ime Udoka, head coach the Rockets Tamiko Bryant's head coach
of the Texans. They each had a lot of financial flexibility,
draft capital, brought in guys like C. J. Stroudkah Men Thompson,
and so twenty twenty three was the pivot point to
set them up for long term success. They're on the
front end on what should be a longer term window

(02:47):
of contention and at least for the immediate future, though,
I think the outlook is fairly similar for both in
that it's a good season but probably not going to
be a great one based on relative of similar limitations. Paul,
I know you enjoy those cross for analogies. Do you
see where I'm going with all that? Yeah?

Speaker 3 (03:08):
Actually I made I made a tweet about it the
very De's what you were saying, the little the little
format with the handshake and you know, the Texans and
the Rockets handshaking and saying or are defense is carrying
our offense right now? I think it's absolutely true. But
I do think that they defer. They did differ a
little bit actually because only because I think it's very

(03:31):
I mean, I guess it's very easy to protect both
teams too or their bath going forward to improving on
the other side of the ball and this case the offense.
But I think as for the Texans, besides the defensive line,
it's everything's already there, right, the hard parts to get right.
I think already that they already have a superstar talent
on the rockets. I think there's probably way more ways

(03:52):
to go towards getting offense to be to be good enough.
But as as we've talked about before, on the part
the path, the pathway is there. It's it's do we
need a star guard to shake close? And it's a
very clean fit. And there's there's there's protectable guys that
have become available in in the next two years, and
it's it's a very clean fit in the sense of

(04:14):
you don't really have to give up much to get
and massive improvement on the offense just because and sadly so,
just because of how terrible kill and Written has been,
uh and prevently for that matter.

Speaker 2 (04:24):
I know we'll get.

Speaker 3 (04:24):
Into him in this spot, but it's very much you know,
there's just a straight up grade. There's very little compromise
and the start straight for us. We have the extra assets,
we have the extra paite, we have the disposable playing time,
as I'll say, which is what Kailan is getting right now.
It's a very clean swap. But actually I guess, I

(04:44):
guess I'll hit you with a counter which franchises future?
Would you buy into more? Between the text and then
the Rockets right neck?

Speaker 2 (04:55):
I lean Rockets simply because there's more clarity. I think
what's going to happen when CJ gets his second contract,
which will be way more expensive, and just how elite
is he? He's definitely very good, don't get me wrong,
but is he truly in that Pat Mahomes tier? And
can Nick Cassario build a contending roster around him when

(05:20):
he is much more expensive? Not that it can't be done,
but it is going to be more challenging. As opposed
to the Rockets, there's more of a clear path forward,
not just in terms of the players, but the finances
the business, in terms of you know, certainly we know
what the second contracts for a lot of the core
seven are going to look like. We can estimate the ballpark,

(05:41):
but beyond that, if they don't develop the one A
Alpha on a contending team from the Core seven, and
they have to make a big trade, then they have
the assets to do so we know financially what it
would look like. They have the means to get it done,
and so it's just easier for me to project exactly
what a contending roster for the Rockets would look like
three four years from now. Not that I'm down on

(06:04):
the Texans, it's just there is a little bit of
pressure in the here and now because you have that
superstar QB or what we want to be a superstar
QB on his first contract, and so you know, I
was gonna post that same question to you, but I'll
actually delay it a little bit. Which team do you
think we're more excited about in June of twenty twenty five, because,

(06:29):
as I say, there's a compelling case at least for me,
that my perspective could change a little bit over the
next few months. Now. As far as the case for
the Rockets, again, I think a lot of that just
comes down to assets, finances, and the reality that they
have not really castion their chip shit, you know, not

(06:51):
that the Texans are in cap hell. But honestly, what
makes this season all the more frustrating. And they do
have a great defense, but the biggest weakness this Texan
scene that's held them back is the offensive line. They
have invested a lot on the offensive line. They have
pushed their chips, not entirely in, but a lot of
the way in. And so the fact that you're still

(07:11):
having some of these issues, it is fair to wonder
about Nick Cassario, Jamico Ryans. Not that you need to
replace them, absolutely not, but when the margin of error
gets squeezed a ton, when CJ becomes way more expensive
in a few years from now, can they get that done?
And so the Rockets again, it's just a much more
clear path. Obviously. Plan A is you develop the alpha

(07:32):
internally through all these core prospects, or at least some
of them taking a leap. But if that doesn't happen,
then we know the big trade that is potentially coming
down the line. They have set themselves up well for that.
We've talked about that ad nauseum when it comes to
this pod and what the options are for the Rockets
moving forward. I'm sure we'll do it in future episodes
as well. And then you know, in terms of this season,

(07:56):
I don't think I'm gonna feel that much worse about
the Rockets, no matter what, because everything this year is
basically house money. We know the timeline for the Rockets
is as you said, Powell, a little bit further back.
The thing with the Texans is that because of that
first contract, pressure which is there with CJ. Shroud wasn't
really there a year ago because obviously they didn't know

(08:16):
he'd be good or at least this good this soon.
But they knew going into this offseason. That's why they
brought in Joe Mixon. That's part of why they've continued
to invest in the offensive line. They have a lot
of veterans, and so if it doesn't work out this year,
that's one of your cheap years with CJ. And so
I would if they don't do much in the playoffs,

(08:39):
let's say, go out in the wildcard round or they
lose in Kansas City in the divisional round and they
don't look that competitive, then yeah, I might feel a
little bit worse because they actually have invested a lot
as opposed to the Rockets. They don't have that much
invested in this season. So no matter what, happens is
when they get to the playoffs, So when they stay
relatively healthy knock on wood, I don't really think there's
anything that could happen short of maybe, you know, a

(09:00):
sweep in which you lose by like twenty twenty five
points a game, something ridiculous to where I would dramatically
feel different about this team or this season. With a
Texan there is more variability, there's more volatility, and if
this season doesn't go well, then the calculus of how
you build out the rest of your team around CJ. Shroud,
not just in the short term, but two three years

(09:20):
from now, once he gets way more expensive, it's just
a lot more complicated, And so there's more pressure, That's
what I would say on the Texans, because you know,
a stud QB just has much more of a correlation
to winning than the current young guys on the Rockets,
even if you factor in all for in Chhan Goon,
who's still playing at a near all star level. So
there's a sense of urgency on the here and now

(09:41):
with the Texans that isn't there with the Rockets. And
so because of that, there's the possibility for better or
for worse that I could feel pretty differently about the
Texans in a month or so. But the counter to that,
and it's why I'm sort of leaving the door open
to all of a sudden and feeling better about the Texans.

(10:01):
It's so much easier to catch lightning in a bottle
in the NFL than it is in the NBA, at
least with the playoffs, and especially if you have an
elite quarterback, because you know, the counter to everything I
was saying, No matter what the Rockets do, and even
if they are playing their best ball come April and May,
it's really tough to see this year's Rockets, assuming there's
no big trade, having what it takes to beat in

(10:23):
Oklahoma City or a Boston, a team in the true
top tier of the NBA four times out of seven
in the playoffs, your flaws just get exposed because the
bar is just so damn high. The sample is big
enough that Luki things generally don't happen. But in the NFL,
I mean way crazier things have happened than a team
with big time playmakers like CJ. Stroud, like Nico Collins,

(10:45):
like Joe Mixon, like Tank Dell that has an elite
defense as well, if all those guys are healthy and
clicking at the same time, way crazier things have happened
than a team like that putting it all together, finding
the right chemistry and going on a run comes January.
That's sort of the beauty and the curse of the NFL.
And this one game winner takeoff format for every postseason round.

(11:06):
And then if the Texans get the four seed, which
appears they're likely to get again as the winners of
the AFC South, but the weakest division, you do get
a home wildcard game, and they're in that spot right now.
So if the status quo holds, you get a home
wildcard game. They already showed last year that they're capable
of winning in that environment and ourg stadium is pretty
crazy in the playoffs, and then you'd probably draw the

(11:28):
Chiefs in the divisional round. And I mean, I know
the Chiefs of the Chiefs, but they've been insanely lucky
all year. Every metric shows that. And now you've got
to give the Patrick Mahomes not saying I would pick
the Texans to win in that spot if they meet
the Chiefs in the divisional round. But it's not crazy.
That's all I'm saying. So, Paolo, I think right now

(11:52):
I would lean to the Rockets, But I'm curious what
you think you'll think, not just in the here and now,
but six months from now, once both postseason runs are
over and we're looking to next season, which is certainly,
in the Rockets case, a much more realistic window to
actually think about contending. Which team do you think we're

(12:13):
going to be more bullish on then?

Speaker 3 (12:15):
So since you said June next year, I'm actually going
to go with the Texans. And Okay, listen, forgive me
if I say just this for the audience, forgive me
if I say anything that's completely out aligning, because as
you guys know, I'm getting into the NFI do consume
a lot of content about it. But I think it
will probably be the Vextans, because I'm not sure that

(12:36):
by next the start of the next Rocket season, that
will have a star straight product guard yet. And I
think it's possible that if we head into the next
season with perhaps maybe maybe a CTM a column type
as a placeholder or something like that for a year,
that it will feel underwhelming and that it will feel
stagnant a little bit. Because I think this is really

(12:59):
hard to get more out of this team with the
current personnel than what he made. It probably getting out
of them and we'll get into step the rockets onto
the or as we go forwards with the pop. But
for the Texans, I think you have pressure to make
to get a super Bowl, to gets the super Bowl
within the city contract city Strouds first contract right. But

(13:22):
at the same time and seeing how he did the
last season, he strikes me as the type of guy
that's actually that can dead like Mahomes, can make a
lot happen with far wide receivers. And now we know
Nico Collins is it is a true?

Speaker 2 (13:36):
Is it true? One? A?

Speaker 3 (13:39):
Butan clell does not look as good as you looked
last season, So I think we can we can we
can say that City is not elevated in last season.
I think you already had a number one in Nico
Collins that proved it has been proven that he didn't
rest elevate as much as Nichols just that good. But
thinking about Dalton Schultz and the way he's played this
season versus the way or the starts he was getting

(14:00):
us season starts he's getting this season, I think there's
a lot of cases around the league of quarterbacks that
get paid and then let's just scrippled the team building
around them. I think you can look at I think
the guys that got paid the South season, I think
Trevor Lawrence the Jacks just have no way. I just
don't see anyway that they become good in the nearficial

(14:22):
with that contract to the same thing that is eventually
going that when that hits for the Cowboys, the same thing.
And when you look at the best the guys that
got paid and it worked, it's guys that mostly these
teams are elevated by them on offense. And you have
to to extreme examples of this. You have Mahomes and
Jeff Allen that you know with supper receivers that made

(14:45):
it work anyways. And you have the other side of
the spectrum and Joe Burrow who got paid. They still
have the star receivers, but they had to keep out
on on or they have to cut on the defense,
and they Joe Borrow gets the most insane that's every week,
but it doesn't matter because the defense can stop anybody.
And so I think CJ is capable of It's good

(15:07):
to be capable of elevating you know, mediocre receivers. Perhaps
you keep Nico Collins and then why two and three
are either rookies or or you know, Robert Woods type
of guys. And I think City will be able to
elevate an offense like that as long as he has
a really strong offensive line, which is what the Bills have,
which is why it works so well for the challenge
and why he can be the superhero that he is

(15:31):
as as you know, as a quarternerback and make everybody work. Okay,
he had cloff. Security has been elevated, but I don't
think anybody expected them to be as good by Cooper
the same thing all the guy that he's feeling, Mark
Collins and those types of guys he's looking at work anyways.

Speaker 2 (15:45):
Uh.

Speaker 3 (15:45):
And so I think I'm optimistic of a version of
the Texans where you give ct stuff all the time
in the pocket, but the receiver version is good. And
I trust that once he gets back into rhythm, that
you'll be able to go back to what he was
last season. And I think it's just that there's a
bunch of reasons why hasn't been able to be as
good as he was and it's I think it's also

(16:08):
because the offense fails in so many different ways. Sometimes
it doesn't have space to co operate in the pocket,
Sometimes it doesn't have time. Sometimes it's just an insanely
quick failure of the pass pert that and sometimes it's
the run game is working and so it's telegraft. Sometimes
it's wide receivers getting injured blacklegs and and and and

(16:28):
and and Nico at points in the season. Sometimes it's
the wide receivers just wants black class game that are
dropping balls.

Speaker 2 (16:35):
You know.

Speaker 3 (16:36):
It's just so I think it's so many different ways
that the Tactans have struggled offense, only so many different
reasons that it's hard for him to adjust as a
as a year or two die. And I think once
you stabilize the offense, even if it's not as dounted
as it is this year, once that's stabilized, and at
least if there's an issue, it's always the same meter
instead of just buyers popping up everywhere. I think will

(16:57):
be at least I'll be really really optimistic about the
Texans because I still have one hundred percent fath in CJ.
Straw that I asked on Twitter was a bit inflammatory,
but I asked on Twitter a couple of weeks back
if CJ. Strauld was still an above average quarterback for
this season, and most of the replies and I had
had like fifty replies were saying, no, he isn't. And

(17:19):
you know, I didn't give my opinion on it, but
I but in my mind, I was like, I still
think this guy is the guy. I just think that's
a bunch of different reasons all at the same time
that make it so he hasn't looked as good. And
I think once you know that's stable as is in
the off season, that will look back at it. Maybe
a reworked offensive line and I think, you know, if
you get a good offensive line with CJ with the

(17:41):
defense they currently have, which I will say, I think
they've gotten extremely lucky with injuries at least. You know,
my standard was set last season with last seasons Texans,
and I saw so many injuries. So maybe this is
more of the norm. But I think for the most
part of the defenses has stayed together and haven't had
that many, you know, big injury problems. Kelen Patrees obviously

(18:02):
it sucks, but you know there's other guys stepping up,
Kellen Bulk stepping up. So all of this to say,
I think even if they go into the next season
with Nico Collins, c J, a better offs of line
and and this defense, I'll be confident that even if
you lose pieces like I don't know how NFL off
seasons work, but I think if they have at least

(18:23):
that I'll be really confident. And by opposition with the Rockets,
I think that's a real scenario where Booker and Phoenix
doesn't break up part of the soufseason, or Fox and
the Kings don't break up part of the sofseason, and
you're stuck with a little bit of it and one
more transition year where you're you know, perhaps between forty
eight and fifty two wins which might be had a

(18:44):
little and promote on this sea might not, and you're
waiting for that super start to shake free and you're in.
You're stuck with a placeholder like a Colin Saxon or
a CJ. McCollum, or you know what game and Buttle
would have been this season if they made the move
for him. I think that's a real possibility that that
will be our reality. Rockets reality as we start next season,

(19:05):
even if it might be an nd season Tree Fox,
might you know, Fox will be in expiring at that point.
Maybe they can start off the season poorly for fifteen
games they're not in the playoffs, and Fox is like, okay,
I want out. And at the same time, the Kings
are like days are going to resign here, so might
as altered them and get something for something like that
may happen. And so because of those that scenario, I'll

(19:27):
add Lord of the Texans just because, and I think
the biggest message for me here this is probably the
most off talked about the Texans ever, is I really
believe in I really believe in CJ. And I think
as long as he's there, and he does and he
has you know, a stable offensive final and gives some
time to work as magic, I think the Texans will

(19:48):
be just fine. And they'll they will eventually shift into
what the Bills have kind of become, which is, you know,
it's just a very solid team that there. Every year
that they're quarterback basically dictates how good or bad they're
going to be. And that's compared to how good the
league around the miss. And I'll also say long term

(20:10):
for the question, I ask you, it's probably easier to
see the Rockets getting bad just because of the keys
are not there's no key C in the NBA. And
then as you said, I mean, I don't know how
they have only one loss. I do keep up with
them as well. It's I think it's luck. But at
the same time, if it happens over and over and

(20:32):
over again, you start the wonder like is just you know, they're.

Speaker 2 (20:37):
Definitely good at closing out tight games, but just putting
yourself in a tight game leaves you vulnerable. That's all
I'm saying. Like, there's definitely some skill to them winning
those types of games repeatedly, but the fact that you're
not able to get separation, that's the kind of thing
that in the playoffs can give a so called lesser

(20:59):
team a chance. And that's what I think. That's all
the Texans could really help for if they're going on
the road in the divisional round. They just want to
be more competitive than they were at Baltimore year ago.
And take your shot if you get to the fourth
quarter and CJ has a chance, and I think not
saying for sure it's gonna happen, but there is a
world where the Texans, if they win the Wildcard game
or the Wildcard round, would get to case and be

(21:21):
competitive and then take your shot. That's all you can
really ask for in a season where so much has
gone wrong, It's.

Speaker 3 (21:27):
Gonna hold Chris Jones, though I'm scared for CV sale.
It's very puff.

Speaker 2 (21:32):
But to your point on the Rockets and the status quo,
we'll get into fredriin Fleet in a little bit. But
I've been so surprised by people. You know, there's been
more macro talk the last few days because with the
NBA Cup there haven't been as many games, the schedule
has been spaced out, and so people are thinking a
little more bigger picture in terms of team building, and
I've seen a lot of talk, Oh good thing. The

(21:54):
Rockets have the team option on Fred Steel, and people
seem to have forgotten that because of the extensions por
to the year to all for in Shangoon and Jalen Green,
the Rockets are not in a position to have much,
if any salary cap room, So the odds of them
moving on from Fred all together in a scenario where
there's no big trade to be had, now, sure you

(22:15):
could use Fred even as soon as this year's deadline.
If not this year's deadline, that is next off season
as salary filler, that's conceivable. But if there's no major
deal like that to bring in, you know, if not
the A one, something closer to the A one than
you had now, then I don't think the average Rockets
fan has you know, come to grips with just how

(22:39):
likely fred is to return, because even with the shooting struggles,
and we'll get into this in a little bit, but
I think he's due for, you know, at least somewhat
of a progression to the mean, let's say, especially as
the schedule eases up, which it's going to over the
next ten games or so, so the shooting should improve.
But even with the shooting as bad as it is

(23:00):
is now and his I think at his low or
close to career lows across the board, the events stats
still really like him, and he's loved in the clubhouse.
He does provide some value in terms of floor spacing,
even if the shots aren't going in, because people around
the NBA, no Fredan Leet can shoot the lights out.
A lot of that comes down to usage, and we

(23:20):
will get into that as we move our way through
the pod, but just sort of circle back, there is
a world where the Rockets stay the course with him. Now,
if he underwhelmed statistically this season, then the Rockets Spike
could use that to their benefit in terms of, you know,
the next contract and they extend him at a lower
average annual value something along those lines, or maybe they

(23:40):
just pick up the option and use him as you know,
salary filler. I don't know, because they're not in a
position to have cap room anyway. But the point is
what you were saying about this scenario where Devin Booker
or Daron Fox, someone of that tier doesn't shake free,
and so you largely run it back next season, then
don't try to make a huge external move to put
you in a new tier at the top of the

(24:02):
Western Conference. Fredvan Fleet could very well be a part
of that scenario as well, And it feels like a
lot of the discourse you know, seems to think that, oh,
if he doesn't get a lot better than the Rockets's
gonna move on from Fred, and I don't think that's
the thinking at all. We'll get into him more specifically
in just a few minutes. But to close the loop
on CJ and the Texans. Certainly, if they go on
a strong postseason, Marning gets to the AFC Championship Game

(24:24):
or beyond to place this franchise has ever been, then
I'll be buying in. But I could also see during
the off season there's some copium to it. But there's
also some truth and the reality that the more CJ
gets away from the crazy stuff that's happened this season,
the easier it's going to be for him to shed
some of those bad habits. You're right, there has been

(24:46):
some regression. He's not the guy that he was a
year ago, and a lot of it comes down to
not trusting the offensive line. And when that happens, it's
not just oh the risk of injury. You see it
frame that way on social media all the time, Oh
what happens if he gets hurt. No, it's not just
about that. It's that his entire processing is sped up
because he's not trusting that the line is going to
hold up. He's not trusting his reads what's in front

(25:07):
of him, and before you know it, the chain starts
to collapse because there's so many elements to it, and
it's tough to fix that on the fly, when there's
games every week and you're not able to obviously do
much with your personnel, then it's very tough for him
to magically become a different guy next Sunday or Saturday

(25:29):
in this case than he was the previous weekend as
opposed to in the off season. When I mean, first
things first, hopefully you can upgrade the personnel on the
offensive line, as you said, but beyond that, just getting
some time away from the game to watch the film
and not go right back into the same habits practice
after practice, week after week. I think at that point

(25:51):
it'll be easier to make a clean break than it
is on the fly. And so it's frustrating right now,
but I could see by April May Jun the next year,
or me talking myself back into the Texans fringing it
out offensively, not just because of the personnel, but also
any bad habits that CJ has acquired. If things don't
go well in the playoffs because the offense can't score
at the level they need to, then I think both

(26:12):
personnel upgrades and just time and space from what's happened
this year to sort of clear his head and start
a new once training camp starts next July. I could
see myself buying in come May or June, no matter
what happens in the playoffs, unless it's just something crazy
like I don't know, they lose forty five to three,
just something totally demoralizing where he throws four or five
touchdown or four or five interceptions, excuse me, and looks

(26:34):
absolutely terrible. Anyway, enough Texans for one show. Just thought
that'd be an interesting way to lead off rest of
the pod. I promise we'll talk rockets specifically both the
micro of these two NBA Cup games, the quarterfinal against
the Warriors, the win, and then the semifinal loss to
the Thunder. There's obviously a lot of different places that

(26:57):
we could start off that discussion, I think. I think
the obvious headline is that it's just really good to
get that Golden State monkey off of this team's back.
I think mentally that was hanging over them more than
any of them would admit, So to put that fifteen
game streak in the rearview mirror, I think is huge. Obviously,

(27:17):
they could draw the Warriors in the playoffs. It feels like,
for one reason or another, these franchises have been tied
together for some time, so it would not surprise me
if the Rockets see the Warriors down the road and
they can draw upon this experience. But beyond that, I
also think being able to get to the other side
when things haven't been going your way. That's the kind

(27:38):
of thing that can translate beyond just one team and
one matchup. And so it's hard to say exactly how
or when it got there, but even for this Emai
Udoka led group, I think the Warriors had become something
of a bugaboo, and so I think being able to
put that behind them, especially in the way that they
did a seven to zero run and the final minute

(27:59):
twenty get a win at home. And by the way
that tuditional crowd on the NBA Cup night was crazy good.
We talked about Energy Stadium being great for the playoffs.
I think that game should also show you what tutisoner
can be like once the games have more meaning, and
hopefully we can see that in the playoffs come April
and May. Time will tell on that. But I just
think the larger takeaway is that not only do you

(28:21):
shake away all the bad feelings, the bad vibes from
you know, Rockets Warriors the last two years, not going
to count the tanking era before that. But I also
think that this team sort of proves something to itself
that even when things are hard, they are capable of
getting to the other side. And so I think that's
a good place to start. Even in a week that

(28:41):
ended with a little bit disappointment to fifteen point loss
to the Thunder in Las Vegas. Good you get the
experience and you know, to get on that stage, they
had a lot of great press. They got to, you know,
see how they perform under the lights. Even if it's bad,
there's still value in the experience. There's twenty six other
teams that didn't get there at all to the final
four in Las Vegas, So you'll take it all in all,

(29:04):
I think the good outweighs the bad, especially when you
factor in the baggage and the history of that Rockets
Warriors matchup. And so for me, I look at this
a little more broadly because I think and some of
the bright lights the NBA Cup, the national television dynamic.
You know, the Warriors game was on T and T

(29:26):
to a nationwide audience. The Thunder game was Houston's first
on ABC and five seasons and so the Rockets, especially offensively,
did not look great in either of those games, especially
the second fund. They didn't get to one hundred in either,
and so I think that's created a little bit of
a disconnect right now between the perception of this team

(29:49):
the discourse, and what the reality is. I want this
to be something of a pick me up for the
audience because even if people I think they're above, you know,
listening to someone like Kendrick Perkins at ESPN, he particular
the Rockets get blown out by the thunder. We heard
Charles Markley saying after the Golden State win that the

(30:10):
Rockets have no idea how to play basketball. Even if
you're a fan and you look at those guys then say, well,
they're casuals. At the same time, when guys but those
types of megaphones are using them in a not ideal
way to talk about your team, even subconsciously, it can
drive the discourse, especially in a period where there aren't

(30:33):
a lot of games because of this break into schedule,
and so because of that, I think the perception of
the Rockets right now is a little bit worse than
the reality. And so the perception what everybody's honed in
on they're fatally flawed offensively. There's some truth in that
for sure, at least in terms of being a title

(30:54):
contender this year. But as we said leading off with
the whole Rockets Texans discussion, nobody was expecting the Rockets
to be a title contender this year. Prior to the season,
Rockets were not on anybody's radar. The over under was
either forty two and a half or forty three and
a half games. They were just forty one and forty

(31:14):
one last year, number eleven seed in a loaded Western Conference,
barely on national TV at all. People knew they were
better than the Steven Silas tanking years, but the Rockets
were not on the radar, certainly nationally. Into a lot
of local fans in Houston, they were far below the
Astros and the Texans in the hecking order. It's only
been the last few weeks that the Rockets have really

(31:37):
captured attention, both locally and nationally. I would actually put
the inflection point as the week of Thanksgiving because they
had the big win at Minnesota when they clinched their
Cup group and got to the knockout stages. They won
ten to twelve. Overall, dating back to the middle of
that month, and then on Sunday, the first that was

(32:00):
the Sunday right after Thanksgiving. That was the win they
had over the Thunder, the game where Fred bin Fleet
actually went off with the season high thirty eight. Obviously,
that shows you, as we said at the time, what
the Rockets are capable of when they have that version
of Fred or a guard producing at that level. And
that actually brought the Rockets to win a half game
of the Thunder and the standings, and then at that point,

(32:20):
you know, the Rockets have basically forced their way into
the local and then even the national discourse. People were
paying way more attention because based on the record, how
can you not, especially you're more than the quarter of
your way into the season, and so people are talking
about them. They're getting more national TV games because they're
getting to the Final eight and then the final four
of the NBA Cup, and everything's been under the microscope since.

(32:44):
But there's just a lot in that process that's getting
either forgotten or just getting swept up in narratives and generalizations.
The first point I would raise, you've got to adjust
your expectations to the schedule. If you look at December
the Rockets are just three and three right now, but

(33:04):
there's some important qualifiers that we need to add. Of
the six games this month or have come against the
Thunder and the Warriors, those are two elite defensive teams.
In the case of the Thunder, the best defense in
the whole NBA and maybe the best team in the
league overall. In the case of the Warriors, that's a
notorious the difficult matchup. We've talked about that ad nauseum,

(33:25):
especially the last few weeks. And then the other two
games were West Coast against the Clippers and the Kings
on the road. Both teams right now at five hundred
are better, and in the case of the Clippers, they
are a top five defense as well. And then you
got to consider, you know, the home and road splits,
as is the case with most young teams. Rockets are

(33:45):
way better at home. They're ten and three to Toto Center.
They're seven and six in road or neutral games. Of
the six games this month, four have been outside of Houston,
and the only two in Houston have been against elite
defenses in the Thunder or in the Warriors. And I
also think those NBA Cup games they're even more defensive minded,
because whether being a playoff like Atmosphere, they tend to

(34:06):
officiate the games a little more loosely, allow more contact,
and so bottom line, it becomes a little more difficult
to score, especially if you don't have that proma or alpha,
which we know is a deficiency for the current Rockets.
So as I see it, just from the start, when
you look at who they were playing this month, or
at least the first half of this month, the narrative

(34:30):
was just set up for them to fail. That line
that Barkley had about the Rockets not knowing how to
play basketball, if you were going to use this stretch
as a referendum, it was always going to end up
looking like that at some point. This team just does
not have the personnel yet, especially with a struggling for
freedmend Fleet. So against good teams, it's gonna look clunky,

(34:52):
and especially in the really high leverage moments, you've got
to zoom out a little to get a better picture
of what's actually going on. Think there's a lot of
missing the forest for the trees. Here a couple more
things I want to know before I hand things off
to you, fellow. So not only did the Rockets beat
the Warriors, but they closed out the game on a

(35:14):
seven to zero run in the final minute twenty seconds.
There was a great stat from John Schumann, a NBA
dot com their power rankings guy that I'm going to
quote here. Houston has won four of its last five
games that were within five points in the final five minutes,
having allowed just forty seven points on fifty two clutch possessions.

(35:36):
If you just listen to the narratives, you'd think the
Rockets were cooked in these late game scenarios because the
lack of offense, the lack of shooting. You hear ema
Udoka getting criticized or not being creative enough. I personally
think a lot of that's superficial because the bottom line
is whether the ball goes in the basket or not,
how easily it does or doesn't. That's just the first

(35:57):
thing that always jumps off the page when you're watching
a basketball game. It's just human nature. The reality is
that the defense matter just as much, and the Rockets
are locking up teams when it really matters. And then
in terms of the creativity, I mean, he may has
actually been you know, we can talk about tactical creativity.
I guess that's a fair criticism at this point because
they haven't made a ton of adjustments, But at least

(36:19):
in terms of lineup creativity, I think he's done really well.
We saw late in that Warriors game. You know, there
was this conundrum that you need all for Inch and
Goon to get buckets in the half court offensively, but
then in the second half when the Warriors were just
setting these screens really high up the court and they
were just torching them on defense. Well, late in the game,
they basically flipped in these late game possessions, bringing in

(36:42):
men Thompson, Tari Easton for defense and then all Princhon,
Goon and Green for offense, and largely they got the
best of both worlds. And then the way that game ended,
I mean, for me, it was just a perfect microcosm
of this team. You know, Steve Kirk ca and bitch
about the foul call all he wants, Straybond can cry
about it being the most painful loss since the twenty
sixteen finals. Either way, that should tell you just how

(37:03):
doubt then the Warriors were. But to get back to
the point, which is the call. The NBA confirmed multiple
times there was a foul, and what happened. Jalen Green
just outworked Jonathan Kaminga and beat him to the spot
for that rebound, and the Rockets run the double bonus
because a possession earlier, Shamgoon had drawn a fowl against
Raymond and then he scored on Kavan Looney a few
seconds after that. And so for the Rockets, a team

(37:25):
that prides itself on defense, effort, rebounding, being the try hard,
scrappier team getting to the line through physicality, attacking the
paint because they don't have the ability to beat you
through skill. You couldn't script a more fitting way for
them to win a game like that against the good opponents.
And again this all comes at a time in which

(37:46):
a lot of these narratives, what have you believed that
this team has no idea what it's doing when a
game gets to winning time. But if you look beyond
the narratives and look how these games are actually playing out,
reality's pretty different. One in their last five games that
have been within five points in the last five minutes,
and in terms of how everything translates to the playoffs,

(38:07):
so when they get there, I look it up, the
Rockets are actually nine and five this year against teams
with winning records. The only teams in the entire NBA
with better records against winning teams Cleveland, Boston and OKC.
And so the reason I bring all that up it
feels like there's this growing narrative that the Rockets are

(38:28):
just regular season merchants and they'll get exposed in higher
leverage games. YadA, YadA. That's not what's really happening. They're
actually playing fairly well in the clutch. They're performing well
against good teams. The formula is holding up. They're just
not yet to the level of the true top tier teams,
the Calves, the Celtics, the Thunder. And that's totally okay

(38:50):
when you look at the bigger picture and you consider
what the true baseline is, or at least was entering
this season, and then even if you want to look
at December, I'll bring this thing full circle. Since I
let off this mini rant talking about the schedule, You've
got to allow at least some time for the schedule
even out, because just as the first six games have

(39:11):
been difficult, well now you've got the next four between
the nineteenth and the twenty sixth of December, You've got
two against the Pelicans starting Thursday at home, and then
you've got road games in Charlotte and in Toronto. All
of those four games are against teams that are more
than ten games below five hundred, and most of them
are just ravaged by injuries. So even if you look

(39:31):
at the recent record and say, well, you are what
your record says you are, they're five hundred this month.
Well for the season, the Rockets are still seventeen to nine,
number three in the Western Conference. By the way, Memphis
is a half game ahead of them at eighteen and nine.
But they've been really lucky. They've actually had the third
easiest schedule in the NBA to date, and they have
the most difficult scheduled NBA the rest of the way

(39:52):
by comparison to the Rockets have had the fourth most
difficult scheduled NBA to date, and they are right in
the middle of the pack thirteenth in terms of maining
strength of schedule. So the underlying metrics show that if
knock on wood, the Rockets can stay healthy. I think
Memphis is at two right now by half game. I
think there's easily a world where the Rockets can pass

(40:12):
them and we already know they beat them by twenty
points head to head as well. No, there's limited value
and what you can take from any you know, late
October game, but it is there. The point is seventeen
to nine, number three in the West. That's a lot
better than what the current narrative would lead you to
believe if you just checked in on Rockets Twitter at

(40:34):
any point the last few days. So in that note,
I'll hand things off to you, Poulow. I'm, you know,
certainly not saying there aren't concerns. There are. I'm just
saying that they've already got a championship level defense, number
two in the NBA. They're number eighteen on offense. I
get the frustration, but when you dig deeper and you

(40:55):
think about what the expectations were, when you look at
the schedule, who they've played in this recent sort of
mediocre stretch, it just feels like that the cart is
ahead of the horse in some of the you know,
I don't want to say panic, but I'll say, uh, pessimism.
So let's start there. Before we get into the micro
of any individual games or players. You know, we'll certainly

(41:18):
touch on Fred as promised, or any changes maybe they
make this week because they've got these extra off days
and practices that they don't normally have over the grind
of an eighty two game regular season. What are your
broader thoughts as far as the discourse right now and
what we've learned about this team over this relatively difficult
NBA Cup stretch of play.

Speaker 3 (41:39):
Yeah, I think just talk about the games in specific. First,
the Rocket Warriors game was just an absolute thriller. I
stayed up untiel like I think it was Cci Fifi
thirty am. I had to get up at eight and
it was all and it was all worth it. And
about the call, it feels all the sweeter. That's stive
good at the bick about the call. We've we Rockets

(42:00):
fans have been on the short. Don't shot into the
stake against the Warriors as far as officiating goes in
much bigger stakes game as everybody knows, it's just it
felt extra good that it was that way. And I
will say he has no reason to complain because to me,
and I said this on Twitter, the ref was was
there was I think the ref was being reasonable in

(42:20):
the same stat Yes, I do get that they don't
call that foul on these types of cold situations. They
probably called jump ball nine ten times. But it is
a foul, so you can complent on that. And besides that,
to me, it was cleared chingun got fouled on the
offensive board. The exact same ref that had the perfect
view of that offensive foul is the exact same ref

(42:42):
that then called the foul on Shale. And to me,
and to me trying to think of what the ref
was saying, to me, it's pretty clear he was like, Okay,
I don't want to and this game on a foul
call on an offensive reebat, but it's earlier fun and
so I'll just let it go. The Rockets likely get

(43:04):
this offensive rebound this in the moment of the foul,
right of the of the foul that was not called.
Brockets are probably gonna get the rebound here and they'll
get they have a time out, they'll have like ten
seconds to go win the game. And to me and
meeting on the ref, to me, that's a fair way
to end this game, right that they get a shot,
right they they don't end the game on free throws,

(43:24):
but they get a shot to win the game with
ten seconds left.

Speaker 2 (43:26):
It's fair enough.

Speaker 3 (43:27):
If they can do it, they can do it. This
is the most reasonable way to win when the game,
considering that it's not purely a rule book. You lead
the refs in at the end of the games they
let them play. That seems like a happy medium, right,
but at the point, but after that, the Rockets don't
get the offensive rebound. And now, if you're the right,
you're stuck between two situations. Well, I didn't call this foul,

(43:48):
but they seems to not deserve to lose like this, right,
So I didn't call the offensive found the rebound. I'll
call the offensive foul. This is a foul. So I'll
be strict on this one, because there is ever sort
have been in a situation to try the first of
jump in the first place, because they fell on the
defensive remap thinking half position, got pushed by Luoni. It's
it's it's as square kind of as an offensive ol call,

(44:10):
as a square cut of an offensive rebounding foul call
as there is. So to me, it was you got text,
you got the fair result in the end, so it
doesn't matter. But I will say it did feel incredibly
good to get that monkey off our backs, and it
was some of the best two and a half hours
of sleep that I got afterwards. But then to move

(44:33):
on to the to the thunder game was and we
kept close for you know, three quarters basically, well maybe
two and a half quarters, and at some point the
difference in talent showed and the team that had Shay
won the game because well they had Shay and he
had a you know, he was getting defended well, but

(44:54):
he still had a good game, still got a lot
of foul calls to have five steals on the block.
They still have the first and the second best adventors
created on the floor that back in in Shay and
Jilen Williams and as j Hartenstein was you know, being
a MANA says he is with those flourther little shots
that are just kind of triggered shut out of me
because he shouldn't have that kind of such as a

(45:16):
running they web or whatever. And so my main takeaway
from that game is, well, the game's a really good
team trying their hardest. The well that we've been calling
out for weeks now ended up planning through, and you
know that's just you know, such as life. Uh, there
were still some positive takeaways from that game for me,

(45:37):
from the combination of the two games, I thought, Amn
Thompson with when the LISPU Pridess was one of the
players that she went through. He played better than his
usual self. He made some good shots and he against
the under specifically Games of Warriors mostly played really good
defense and Forstnovers and you know, he wasn't inefficient, but

(45:57):
you know, didn't go off for nineteen points with for
him as we off and I thought I was impressed
with Labari's shot making ability and on a team where
chot making is very scarce scarce, sorry, it was a
little bit of it was refreshing to be confident that
when JB was pulling off for a middle in shot,
I thought, hey, this is sucky going in, or it's

(46:19):
that he's showing he's throwing free throws. And so you
know with in the struggles that's much offensively, I think
there's there should there should be space that if bar
is rolling, not necessarily giving him the ball in the
post and when go to workers that's not his game,
but going plays where he's you know, curling around the
screen and either getting it three or stepping into a
middle and shot closer to the basket. I think that

(46:40):
those are you know, that's something that they can incorporate
more job and as a design to play, and again
not necessarily giving it both. We already do that way
too much. You know, I love all people, we don't
have the spacing to be constant, constably feeding the post.
And so those are my two biggest takeaways. As far
as those cool games were, I thought Cabary and the
men were pretty big standouts as positives. And then as

(47:03):
far as the general outlook of the team, Listen, we've
got to I think we've always got to keep in
mind what the expectations are at the beginning of the season,
because you know, like it or not, the NBA is
an eighty two game sample, and.

Speaker 2 (47:19):
Right, I guess that's what I'm getting at. It felt
like to me that the lens just totally flipped, like
when the Rockets for fifteen and six and nobody had
paid much attention to them at all, But all of
a sudden, you get into December and you're half game
back of the Thunder for the one seed, and you've
already cleinched your cup group and you're getting these national
TV games. It feels like, all of a sudden, people

(47:39):
started looking at the rockets through the lens of a contender,
and through that lens, yeah, you'll pick every flaw. In reality,
if you've been following this team throughout, you should have
that type of perspective that you're talking about.

Speaker 3 (47:54):
Yeah, And which is why I don't think that while
we are trying to win now, I don't think we're
going all the way trying to win now in every
single margin that we could possibly get. We as I'd
say the last season, we were probably maybe sixty forty
sixty trying to win forty you know, doing so or

(48:15):
only winning through guys that we want to build in
to build fort of the future. And I think this
season it's more of a maybe in eighty twenty or
an eighty five to fifteen if this team wanted to
play to win more. And we'll get into how they
could do that. You know, as we go along the pad,
they've played man thumbs and more, they've played a reason more.
They'd make changes the start of mine. Perhaps Aaron Holly

(48:39):
will play more I s he is doing. Perhaps they
would have given other guys chances to get more minutes
in nights where they'll know that I've been going we
haven't seen John v been when he's having a bad
game as much as we did last season. We've seen
make guys play through mistakes a bit as well. So
I think all in all, you've got to remain conscious

(49:03):
of are conscious of what the expression the expectations were
when the season started, and you have to and it's
perfectly fine ford to adjust a met of season goes along,
but you can switch from eight to eighty on on
a place off of tuny games. To me, the way
I view this team is my expectation now is that

(49:25):
they get to fifty wits and their own place to
do so. And they were perhaps they were at some
point on place for nearly fifty five if I'm'm mistaken,
but always I always expected some sort of regression to
eventually come in. And I don't even think that this
team regressed. I think they faced good teams, and you know,

(49:45):
against good teams they managed. You know, against the Kings,
perhaps you expect to beat them, but they're they're a
competent team, and so they are going to there's you're
going to lose some of those games. You're not going
to beat every single team that you're a favorite against,
and you're not going to get beat by every single
You're none of that. You're an underdog against they beat

(50:07):
the Thunder. It's just like they beat the Thunder. It's
expected that they'll lose some games to the games the
Warriors were obviously, you know, some a team that even
though they're not underdogs on you know, the batting apps,
they are underdogs, you know, mentally, and when you look
at those games, it'll always seem like an extra challenge
to beat them. They probably were underdogs against the timber Wolves.

(50:28):
They beat them. Just looking back and just looking back
at the schedule, probably shouldn't be underdogs against a lot
of these teams. But oh no, I think they're performing
above expectations for what the season was. And a five
hundreds stretch of four games or five or six games,

(50:48):
it is not the end of the world. And it's
not really even that much below what's expected. The Rockets
right now are you know, if if they played five
hundred basketball till the end of the season, they'd finished
for against about five seven, right which would be a
four win improvement on last season, they would break there
over under and they and if you asked mult people

(51:10):
at the start of the season, they would probably take
that result as it lightly entails the playoff spot. And
this is assuming that what people are calling a slump,
which is five hundred extend that's not extends through the
entire season. I think a lot of people started to
be better than that, and so they are still very
much on track to have a near fifty win season

(51:32):
or they to have a fifty win season. But even
if the normous closure to what it has been the
last six games built close to five hundred and so
just before before we get into the frevent LISTA and
I think that's mostly my assessment on on what currently
is going on. And always don't lose sight of the

(51:53):
fact that we are, yes, trying to win now. We
are going all out trying to win now right now. Also,
you know, developing guys as we go along, and they're
not trading for cyclo being yeah, yeah, and and and
we'll get into the upsides and downsides of maybe geving
giving a man more responsibility and stuff like that. Just

(52:14):
remember that giving guys more responsibility before they're ready for
it backfires a lot of the die and so yes,
they could start a man a man Toori Dylan Brooks
Javari and Singun and maybe they'd win more like that.
At the same time, if it goes wrong, you're kind
of burning a man on ReBs that is not ready

(52:35):
for You're burning Tari on rebsit is not ready for you.
And it's you know, it's sound linear. And at the
same time, playing through mistakes is good when there's no expectations.
When that's expectations and you're playing through mistakes, it can
it can cause you to have tendencies that are not
healthy long term for development of employees. You can you
can reach situations like what an extreme of the of

(52:58):
something like that would be pensim He had a flow
to his game, he was forced to play through it.
It reached the point where it became a mental block,
and he was never the same the same player. Obviously
there were injuries, but he was never the player that
he was supposed to be. If you forced them and
Thompson to shoot five streets a game from now on,
if he forced them to initiate the entire offense, you know,

(53:19):
on the same usage tree that President Wit has, he'd
struggled because his handles not ready. He can kind of
shoot catch and shoot shots, can full up these midrand shots,
late midran shots stity slowly slowly trying starting to take
again that he used to take in with the Overtime
Elite in the Overtime Elite League, those are slowly creeping back.

(53:43):
Right if he had to take seven or eight of
the game, it's likely that his efficiency take a dip.
And now you're overloading him with bad shots, which is
gonna which is going to affect his mental in general
for the game. Oh, then have a good game, because
I was seven for twenty and mostly because of the
data stat that I said, and it will hurt specific

(54:06):
parts of this game as well. It's overall his overall
more morale as just as a player in general. And
I think every little change, and we're going to get
into potential changes, has a cascading effect across the entire team.
So you can't really just think of this as a
win now or at all costs type of team because

(54:27):
that has cost long term. And while if you have
a thirty three or thirty four year old cast with
you know, an ageing superstar, you're okay kind of burning
those cutridges because it's all about getting the best that
you can right now. Like the team's harder than error
while building. If you're trying to build something sustainable, you

(54:49):
don't make every single you don't make every decision from
the point of view of being shortsighted and winning or
getting or getting the most usability team.

Speaker 2 (54:57):
Right now, to your point, on the win pace, it's
actually a decent bit better than fifty. So seventeen to nine,
if you extrapolate that over eighty two games, it's fifty
three point six. So if you round up, that's fifty
four wins. And there's also the matter that the Rockets
have faced the fourth most difficult schedule in the NBA

(55:20):
to date. They're only thirteen the rest of the way,
so the schedule is going to get easier. So if
you round, you're at a fifty four win pace now
and the schedule is going to be easier over the
final two thirds of the season, then it's been over
the first third at least to the aggregate. So not
saying I expect the Rockets to win in the mid
fifties and they're probably going to have injuries at some point.
They have been fairly fortunate on that front to this point,

(55:43):
although maybe with them being a deeper team, not relying
on any one guy too heavily, also having more depth
to plug and play when things do it ever really happened.
Maybe they're more immune to the injury concerns than a
lot of teams are. Over eighty two games, you'll have
to see what happens on that front. Anyway, As far
as to close out the pods, spending it more forward looking,

(56:04):
because we've most of our discussion has been looking back,
not just at the micro of the games against the
Warriors and the Thunder, but also the macro of where
they are in the rebuild, what we've learned to this
point in the season. Why I think Polo and myself
are largely aligned with the current discourse and the level
of pessimism not really being appropriate for what we've seen

(56:28):
on the balance from this team, and especially when you
start to add the important layers of contacts such as
the schedule and how that's going to even out a
little bit as December winds down. Now, if they go
too and two or worse and this next week, we
may have a very different discussion on next week's pod,
But for now, I think a lot of the pessimistic
takes are unfair and largely based on narratives that were

(56:50):
put in place for people that haven't really watched this
team and don't understand the contacts the way most of
us should. After you know, certainly our podcast listeners, the
diehards that listen to me and Powloll ramble for an
hour plus every week, you should have a pretty good
handle on what reasonable expectations were going into this year
and why the Rockets, even with a somewhat underwhelming December

(57:13):
to date, are still far out kicking their coverage. To
go back to one more football analogy, anyway, looking forward,
there's one change, and this is a week. In some
ways it reminds me of an All Star break, and
we saw last year how they did tweak the offense
over the All Star Break. They came out playing a

(57:34):
lot faster, with more pace, shooting more threes. It seemed
to work to the benefit of Jalen Green. I'm not
going to predict that. I think at this point Jalen
is who he is until proven otherwise. I think that
inconsistency is baked in, and while I would love to
see him improve, I would love to feel better about
Jalen in a few months than we do right now.

(57:55):
I'm not counting on it. The Rockets are panicking. They're
not going to remove him from starting line anytime soon,
I don't think. But the peaks and valleys, that is
simply the Jalen Green experience through four years and the NBA.
It is what it is, and we've talked about it
a lot, both the benefits and the drawbacks in terms
of how it fits into your formula as a team.

(58:17):
I don't want to go down that road again. And
I don't think the Rockets are looking at any major changes,
and I don't think any of them are going to
dramatically benefit Jalen. However, there are some tweaks they could make,
and this being a week that similar to an All
Star break, you only have one game between last Saturday

(58:37):
in Vegas and next Sunday in Toronto, So you have
one game and a span of over a week, and
it's at home against a bad New Orleans team that
is ravaged by injuries. So it's not just the time off,
it's also being in Houston for a very long stretch

(58:58):
like that and actually getting to have legit practices, which
are fairly rare during the season, day after day, similar
to the Ulstra break. This is a time where if
you wanted to make some more fundamental changes to your
style of play, to your rotation, you conceivably could because
you're not just doing it on the fly. You'd be
putting them in a better position to succeed by actually

(59:19):
having people prepared. And So when I think of how
they can potentially change things up if they want to
try and kickstart the offense, I think there's one change
I expect and there's one that I'm curious about. The
one that I expect, and this is lower leverage. But
I think the minutes that went to Aaron Holliday against

(59:41):
the Warriors and the thunder will go to Read Shepherd
or Cam Whitmore. Not because Aaron Holliday deserves to lose
the minutes, but it's what you were saying, Paowlo, in
terms of the Rockets thinking not just about a here
and now maximizing odds in a given game, but also
the bigger picture and upside. And I think the likeliest
they just go back to Read and trust that over

(01:00:03):
a larger sample, he's going to make the shots that
coming out of Kentucky we all expected him to make
when he's built as one of the best shooting prospects
of this generation. And so it's not so much that
the Rockets are super down on read, it's just when
the stakes got really high and these winner take all,
knockout run games and the NBA Cup against the lead opponents,

(01:00:23):
I think they said, you know what, we're going to
go with the steady hand of Aaron Holliday. When the
schedule eases up and you can think of a little
bit bigger fixture, I think they'll go for the development
and the upside of a guy like Reed Shepherd. But
there's also a world where if they want Reid to
get some reps in the G League, and the Vipers
do have a decent amount of games coming up, I
believe starting Thursday, you could send Red to the G

(01:00:47):
League and bring Kim Wentmore back up because it's not
like you necessarily need a point guard. For the most part,
you're staggering Fred Vanfleet and Jalen Green and those are
your lead guards. So Aaron Holliday, even though he's a
point guard and size, he's not really being used as
a point guard. He's primarily a floor spacer, and it
helps to have a secondary ball handler. But even in

(01:01:08):
his minutes, it's still Fred or Jalen that's that's running
the show, usually Jalen, because it's tough to play two
guys at that limited size. So while I think going
back to the rotation free Golden State and Read being
in place of Erin, and you know, you always have
the insurance policy. If Reid doesn't have it going in
the first half and the game is high stakes in
the second half and competitive, maybe you go Erin. Then

(01:01:29):
he seems to you know, not need a lot of
time to get hot, and so that's one of the
benefits of having Aaron near the end of your bench.
It's a very useful insurance policy. But I think at
least in the first half, the likely scenario is that
you go back to Read and there's at least some
world where maybe you don't play a point guard at all.
In those minutes, you run Fred and Jalen as youre

(01:01:50):
ones and bring back Cam whitmore. But I just think
the minutes that were earmarked for Aaron holiday not a ton,
but ten to fifteen minutes a game will go to
either Cam or Read. That's my prediction, especially at a
point of the schedule where it's going to be a
little bit easier, at least on paper, and hopefully the Rockets,
if they're able to get leads early in these games,
have a bigger margin, and so because of that, it's

(01:02:12):
easier for the young guys to see. At times, Read
I think gets indecisive, not just because he's not shooting
the ball well, but also if the game is competitive,
he's thinking, hey, do I want to waste a possess,
especially when I'm not fully confident, as opposed to if
you're playing with a ten, fifteen to twenty point lead.
It gets a lot easier for these young guys to,
you know, feel emboldened to play in the way that

(01:02:36):
the Rockets hope they will when they're at their best.
And this is the type of week where against lesser opponents.
I know, you can point out that the Hornets beat
the Rockets back in October, but that's pretty clearly a
fluke by this point. And also probably the MVP for
the Hornets in that game was Grant Williams, who locked
up all for inching Noon in the second half, took
him out of the game in a half court and
now Grant Williams is lost for the year, so that

(01:02:57):
dynamic isn't going to be there, so should be a
familiar week, and so I think you'll see at least
one of Reed or Cam probably read, but Cam wouldn't
for me in the rotation on Thursday night against the Pelicans.
The other change the Fred van Fleet problem, and we've
handled it at it a few times throughout the pod.

(01:03:17):
I thought that game Saturday, and it was sort of
fitting that Fred was the guy who really struggled one
of eleven from three. The one mate came when the
game was already over. And so when the Rockets beat
Oklahoma City a couple of weeks before, we know he
had thirty eight points. God efficiency hit the big threes
down the stretch, we said, the Rockets get that version
of Fred or Jalen for that matter, that's what can

(01:03:37):
take this team from good to great. Well, the Rockets
did not have that version in the rebatch against the
Thunder from Las Vegas, and this was the result. And
I thought the stretch of the third quarter or the
fourth quarter, excuse me, where the game really got away
from them. Fred had a wide open three with about
seven minutes left that would have cut the lead to two.
He missed it. And then I believe on the other end,
the Rockets fouled on a three, the Thunder went up eight,

(01:04:01):
and within a minute or so after that the Thunder
were off double digits, and you could tell the opportunity
was lost and that the window is shut. And I
don't even really criticize. I saw some saying, oh, the
defenders need to be, you know, less aggressive on the threes. Well,
the Rockets are aggressive defense to begin with. It's sort
of they're calling card. But also when you aren't making shots,
you're inherently going to be a little more aggressive defensively

(01:04:23):
because you think you have to be superman, hopefully getting
some blocks and transition runouts, because you just can't trust
your half court offense when you're shooting that poorly. And
so I thought it was only fitting that Fred was
a guy involved in that sequence where it got away
from them. And you know, as far as Fred being
the problem I mentioned earlier, the advanced stats paint a
much rosier picture than the surface level stats, So I

(01:04:47):
don't think it's quite as bad as you know, you
look at him shooting below thirty eight percent overall, just
better than thirty percent on threes basically his worst as
a consistent rotation player in the NBA. The advance that
show that he's still having a clear impact on a
team level, and so I don't think the Rockets are
going to panic. As I mentioned leading off the pod,

(01:05:09):
I think the discussions about moving on from him altogether
are just way, way premature at this point. But we're
also at a point in the schedule where a third
of the way into the season, we can't just dismiss
it as nothing either. This is inefficient shooting from a
guy who last year shot nearly thirty nine percent on threes.
This is not the same version of fredman Fleet. And

(01:05:30):
so is there a way that you can better optimize
your offense and, for that matter, better optimize Fred. And
so I'm sort of torn on what they should do
and what they will do. And it's probably not going
to be at either extreme. It could be, you know,
you tilt a little bit in one direction or the other,
but there is a case to largely stay the course,

(01:05:54):
Like if you keep using Fred the way you've used
in the last two years, and maybe now he's thirty,
so perhaps the shooting percentage is a little bit worse
because he's not getting a separation he used to. I
could buy that, but he's still good for all For
Inchhan Gooon, I think he's definitely good for your defense
because he limits turnovers. We've seen stretches without Fred this
year over the turnovers. You're just getting absolutely out of control.

(01:06:15):
And if you turn over the ball, then that could
harm your biggest strength on defense. The other thing we've
got to consider is part of this debate. It's not
like you know, any of the alternatives are going to
be better even if we dial down Fred's playmaking, because
I don't think you're going to really dial down his minutes.
It's about how he's used. I don't think, well, no

(01:06:36):
one should think that Fred VanVleet has forgotten how to
shoot a basketball. I can promise you that has not
left him. It's the types of shots that he's getting.
And so when we look at him as a shooter,
when we look at his value as as a leader,
he still provides a solid, respectable level of defense. The
advanced stats still show him as one of the two

(01:06:58):
or three best players on the roster. There's not nothing
to all of that. There is still value. It's off
the top. I want to say these extreme takes of
old bench him. No, that's not gonna happen, and it
shouldn't happen. But we can have reasonable discussions about scaling
down his role in terms of usage or changing And
I guess this goes hand in hands scaling down and

(01:07:20):
changing how he's used. And perhaps if you use him
off ball more, he's going to make more shots, and
so that gives you more shooting gravity. That's the case
for it. And so where I get sort of stuck
in this, it's easy to say, well, the status quo
isn't really working an offensive end to the court, and
Fred's thirty. He's not gonna get any better, especially as

(01:07:41):
an undersized point guard, and your other options, you know,
you could you could go back to the offense you had.
It's interesting when you think of how we got here
the first five games of the year. I know it
feels like a long time ago, but when they had
that three and two start, it felt like late last
season in which most offense ran through Jalen Green. Then
the sixth game was that crazy game against Golden State,

(01:08:01):
but they fell behind by thirty, and then everything was
a Minentari scrambled ball in the second half, and then
the next week the games against the Knicks and the Spurs.
Typically the next game, you know, there was a talking
point going into data of Shingoon really struggling well. They
made a clear, concerted effort to get Shangoon the ball
in that next game he went off. It was a
feel good win. Then the schedule leased up, they started

(01:08:23):
stacking wins, and it felt like they just sort of
retreated back into what they were for most of last year,
the version of themselves before all for in Chinagoon went
out with the injury in mid March, and largely before
Jalen Green went on his crazy run to end last season.
And so it feels like around that third or second
week of the season, whenever it was really the Knicks game,

(01:08:45):
is where it feels like it turned to me, the
Rockets largely went back to how they ran their offense
and sort of what the hierarchy was for most of
last season, with Fred and Shingoon being you know, center pieces,
and especially in a stretch where Jalen wasn't shooting it
well anyway, although I will concede you could also make
a case that maybe Jalen didn't play as well because

(01:09:08):
he's not getting the same touches to get in by them.
There's plenty of compelling arguments you can make on multiple
sides of this whole equation. But now that we're twenty
six games in and the numbers for Fred from an
efficiency standpoint are just not there. And at his age,
you know he's gonna bounce back some, but I don't
know he's not going to magically become a different player

(01:09:29):
at this point in his career. There's an argument you
can also make that if Fred is not what he
was a year ago, even if he bounces back, some
were deep enough into the season where I don't think
he's gonna get back to where he was a year ago.
Just from a mass perspective, should the Rockets be giving
some of those playmaking lead guard reps to younger guys

(01:09:51):
with more upset. Obviously Jalen Green would be the first candidate.
If not Jalen, maybe it's A'man Thompson. We've seen him
do a little bit more in terms of playing when
he gets to start in the games that Fred hasn't
been out there. You could make a case, to some
very small extent for tari E said, maybe Cambit Bor
Reed Shepherd if they ever get going, But there are
ways a way. I think the more realistic alternatives in

(01:10:12):
the very short term are clearly Shalen Green and a
Men Thompson. And so from an upside perspective, I get why.
And it may not be as simple as passing the torch.
It could be running a little bit more through Jalen
and the Men a little bit less through Fred. It
may not be a full blown line change, if you will,
But I also see the case, especially with the Rockets

(01:10:35):
needing to win games against weaker opponents, these would be
bad ones to lose against teams like the Raptors, the Hornets,
the Pelicans. With going the higher floor route, I guess
that's what I would say with Fred. The floor is
pretty high. This formula ated out right now, even with
Fred not shooting that well, as you mentioned Pollo, they're
still on pace to win fifty four games and the

(01:10:55):
number three in the Western Conference a half game back
of number two. And Fred, even when he's on scoring,
his ability to take care of the ball avoid turnovers
that helps you defensively a lot. That's a big time
point of emphasis for Imo Ridoka. And so there is
a compelling case to say, you know what, stay the course,
you're good enough as is, and make this a meritocracy.

(01:11:18):
That's the term you've used in the past. Pallow this
idea that you don't make any radical changes just based
on what you think should be true or could be true,
that you make those younger guys earn higher minutes or
higher usage in the case of Jalen Green and Amen Thomson,
so you keep the door open if they play well enough.
But if they don't, and Jalen in particular has not

(01:11:39):
been much better than Fred if at all from an
efficiency perspective, then you just stay the course because the
status quo has a high floor, way higher than any
of us thought going into the year. And even if
they go out in the first or second round to
the playoffs, whatever, it's still a really good year. There's
a case for that. But there's also a case for Look,
if this team has a high enough floor anyway because

(01:12:00):
of the defense, and they're going to be in the
playoffs no matter what, why don't you experiment more with
running more offense through Shalen Green, Amen Thompson, Maybe even
you get Jori Smitz junior. Some mid post touches a
little bit dial down the pick and roll, especially because
it's not like Shingoo is shooting the ball nearly as
well this year either, So I don't think fred in
the pick and roll is not as beneficial for Shingoo

(01:12:21):
at least from a scoring perspective, as he was a
year ago. And maybe you can use the floor argument
both ways in that, yes, there's a case to stay
the course based on the floor being so high as is,
but there's also a case where if the floor is
high enough, then maybe that allows you to think more
upside in terms of how you sort of divvy up
those playmaking reps and go for someone that's younger and

(01:12:43):
has another gear that they can considerably reach. Whether they
will or not is an open question, but conceivably it's
certainly there. I'm just sort of torn. I don't expect
any radical changes, but it wouldn't shock me if, especially
with this time, just sort of think bigger picture, go
back to the drawing board and against weaker opponents where

(01:13:03):
we know Jalen in particular has tended to fare a
lot better. It wouldn't for me if this offense looks
a lot different the next four games, not just in
terms of the scoring output, but how they score and
who is doing the initiating poll. How would you balance
those factors as we wind down the pod and we
try and project what they should do and what they

(01:13:25):
will do as the schedule eases up.

Speaker 3 (01:13:28):
So I'll start it off by saying, I'm incredibly frustrated.
And if you look at when I do get to
watch the games, because they are insanely late. When you
look at my life commentary, I do lose my bacons
a lot with Fred van Vliet and Lead Talen as well,
and you know, to this credit in this case, I

(01:13:51):
think Alfred ching Hun is not having a season that's
defensively he's having seen that's been better than next black data.
I don't think he's lived up books like Daytim's offense,
not even clothes. And I think he's probably not as
big of a problem, but a pretty massive problem as well,
because you know, he's improved defensively, but we do need

(01:14:11):
his offense. He's not the biggest problem, but he's the
third biggest problem pretty easily.

Speaker 2 (01:14:17):
And that's why I'm sort of torn on this idea
that it's Fred's fault that he's shooting worse. I mean,
there's probably some elements of that, but some of it
is also that Shinangun's just missing shots that he needs
to make and that he's made in the past. So
that's another part of it. And there's just make an
argument that Fred's holding him back, but some of it's
just Shinangun needs to be better period.

Speaker 3 (01:14:37):
If anything, the whole team with the lack of space
thing is holding him back. But that was part of
the case last season as well. It's a combination of
him missing shots that he usually makes, and there's been
a little bit of a shot selecting the difference. He's
shooting more mirroring shots, and he's not making them at
a good enough pace to justify it and to make
it so he's settling for them more. And I've been

(01:15:00):
the cattle get for him taking one of those shots,
because you know, if he becomes good enough, those are
good shots to take. But I don't think he's been
good enough at those either. And he's showing them off balance.
Sometimes He's he typically used to take them mostly facing up,
he's taking them falling, you know, fading away. Those are
not nearly as good either way. That's not the big

(01:15:23):
issue here. The big issue is fred Fred and Leilan
have both been darable and if you want, and as
I was saying, if you want the last pluntary of
the games, I ask who fred BI said out constantly
I asked for. I don't really ask for Gell to
be saved out because he just gets selled out either way,
That's what happens live in game. He guess the Rockets

(01:15:45):
are good because they expect they can. But they expect
the hint for every game is that they're going to win,
and they're in every game, you know, fighting in real time.
I overreact because you know, if they expect the hen
is to win, I'm going to do it like it
to do it or die game every single time. But
when I stepped when I stepped back after the games,
you know afout, not the day of the days after,

(01:16:07):
and I look back, I remember what we what we
were talking about earlier in the pot. It's not really
just the to or die every single game.

Speaker 2 (01:16:15):
Uh.

Speaker 3 (01:16:15):
And because of that, I think that they can tweak stuff,
but they shouldn't go overboard with it as far as
changing too much of the way it is, because truth
is as it is. The rockets are on the base
for a for on over fifty wins season and so
up until the point where it starts breaking too much,
you don't change it. And looking at the stretch of

(01:16:37):
games though, the stretch of games that would in which
they went five hundred thunder Kings, Warriors, Warriors, Cup per thunder,
you expect to lose under both times and losing one
game and losing one game out of four when two
of them are the Warriors, one of them is the Clippers,
one of them is the Kings. It's not really, you know,
far from the exp from what the expectation is when
you look at that stretch and it's not it's nothing.

(01:16:59):
It's nothing that would make you that will make you
make such a drastic change. And we've got consideration. Rockets
are always going to be less prone to changes than
what the general pandom public is going to ask for
because we live in nine more on each or defend,
but it's pleased and dies more on each and every
game than what the cooking staff does than what the

(01:17:21):
rocket structure does. So they're going to be less reactive,
even being overreactive. I don't think it's justified to change
it too much right now. If they lose against the Pelicans,
and they lose against the Raptors, then all of a sudden,
a five hundred six game stretch turns into a three
and five eight game stretch. At that point, I start considering, Okay,
if we look at the last eight games, that's a

(01:17:43):
significant structure of the season. It's not working anymore. At
that point, that'd be down for some more, for more
majeor changes. But this up until that point. You can
give more reps to Jail and even incorporate more just
because in getting more challenge doesn't fix it. But it's
more like, well, it's not working with Fred either, And

(01:18:04):
the only positive that Revent gives to this team right now,
the only positive is that he takes care of the
ball and doesn't He's not acad and over prone as
some of the other guys, just from the fundamental just
the dribble, in the way he positions his body to
prevent stills from happening, the way he's not careless with
the ball, all those little things. That's what Fred is
giving the same. I don't even think he's been above

(01:18:27):
replacement within the team. Defensively, I don't think he's been
that great down that side either, but that stability matters,
and you've got you know, for the totality of the season.
This is currently the current version of Rockets is a
winning formula. The goal is not to win a championship
this year. The goal is to make To me, the

(01:18:47):
goal is it was to make the playoffs via the
play in or not.

Speaker 2 (01:18:52):
Right now?

Speaker 3 (01:18:52):
To me, the goal is get the sixty me the
reasonable goal should be get a sixth seed and get
into the playoffs without meeting the play succession seats. That
they aren't place to do that, and if they're on
pace to do that, why why can't you? The upside
is not there for us to consider a major team
that has more that has downside. It's not like any

(01:19:13):
any in house change is going to turn this team
from a solid playoff team to a contender. But a
major change may turn this team, especially with the West
being as competitive as it is, a major thing may
turn this team from what it is looking like right
now AA three, four, five, six seed back into a
team that's signing for the eight nine times spots. And

(01:19:36):
that's that TETs me a big downgrade. And so up
until and hopefully it doesn't happen up until it is
shown to me that going through Fred and Jail on
the way they currently have been going is not working
well enough for us to be one of those top
six seeds. I will say stay with stay the course
and hope that because there's the other angle of it

(01:19:58):
as well. Fred very much below his career averages shaking
the same thing. It is expected that there will be
some bounce back just by the law of averages from
those two guys, and that will change a lot of traloculus.
For the Rockets. Jilan has been basically been at what
he is for his entire career, but then even the

(01:20:21):
other guys. Jabari is not shooting lights out from three
now that is neither. Dylan is not that much above
what he was last year for the Rockets. He's probably
the only one that you might argue that he's overperforming.
But even then, a man, he's getting better. I don't
think he's better than the last season, obviously, but you
know the young where they get better. Sarry is below
his career three pint percentage. It's not like you're this

(01:20:45):
good because some guys are another performing, but the other
guys that are overperforming to make up for it. No, I
truly believe that we're actually better than this. But we
have some guys, couple of really important guys in Kill
and Kill and Fred and the men that are currently
another performing and so there is the arg one to
stay the course and you hope that it bounces back
because it eventually, you know, by the law of average

(01:21:05):
should unless you think that thread is washed and that
singun h first last year it wasn't mirage.

Speaker 2 (01:21:12):
And one other point I want to add real quickly here.
So this is not and most of our audience should
know this, but I just want to remind people this
is not a James Harden. I am the system player,
and Fred VanVleet he is open to a different role.
It's not like you only can use him this way
or then he's gonna be unhappy. And if you're going

(01:21:35):
to do a change, you have to plan it out
carefully and methodically, or else it's not gonna take. No,
we've seen over the past month when Jalen has it going,
Fred has pretty gracefully taken on a secondary role. Those
games that Jalen went off, the Sixers game, the Kings,

(01:21:56):
the Clippers, when they didn't have Harden, And you know,
I mentioned Jalen seem to do this a little bit
more against lesser opponents, So maybe this next week's the
time this was likely to happen anyway. But it's not
like Fred is someone you have to you know, change
his role very carefully and decisively or else he's not
going to accept it. No, he's a he's a team player,

(01:22:18):
and if Jalen gets going, I think Fred on the
fly will adjust very quickly. And so perhaps that plays
into what you've been saying as well, which is that
because Fred isn't someone that has a big ego that's
going to you know, react terribly if in a given
game things aren't going his way, maybe you just continue

(01:22:38):
to stay the course largely, and if Jalen comes out
hot against the Pelicans or the Hornets a team like that,
then the situation resolves itself and Jalen's being used the
way he was in those games that I just mentioned, right.

Speaker 3 (01:22:52):
Yes, and something that I missed one on my on
my earlier comment, he told them the long term viability
of Fred as a rocket unless it unless it turns
out that there's no researchence or no, you know, progression
to the mean, I think there's and even if there is,
I think there's a close to zero chance that and

(01:23:12):
whit's not on the Rockets next season team option or not.
You have screed a salarial life, you're not gonna generally
cap splash with it. But I do think that the
more likely scenario is that he turns down the option
and gets extended for a lower average amount for two
or three years. And this will be since we're already

(01:23:36):
an hour and in forty minutes deep, or nearly forty
minutes deep, I will leave this night that I will
pick back up as we get closer and verthles stuff
to talk about, we'll talk about this.

Speaker 2 (01:23:47):
I guess.

Speaker 3 (01:23:49):
I think it's very likely that some of the Vets
have their contracts extended for one more season. Give Jeff
Green one more season, give Siva Adam one more season.
And I don't know how as already that into this contract,
but ja Sha'll take the same thing. The Rockets are
going to want to keep salary alive so they can
make that trait. You know, you heard the news came

(01:24:10):
out today that the Rockets would look to flip some
of their expiring sort players that could help more than
will create a team better. Don't discard the option of
treading for someone just because they have Surdy Night here,
or just extending guys that we girl have s even
Adams is extly a little I'm pretty sure and JA
shall take the same thing for a more seasons, just
to keep that lowery alive. Because the Rockets, and to

(01:24:33):
me this is one of the biggest giveaways that Tilman
is not is not you know what people level as
cheap as you could argue that he was back in
the other days. The Rockets are going to operate very
close to the tax line, and they're going to want
to keep Sory alive up to the tax line in
order to be able to make a move for the

(01:24:53):
Star without giving up key players right now, without giving
up Dylan Brooks, for example. In order to do that,
even if you decrease fred salary, say from forty where
it currently is, to twenty five, you're going to need
to keep the other fifteen alive as salary in no
way as ideally expiring salary by extending some of the

(01:25:13):
other guys, and then you offset that amount with Keilen's
extempsion kicking in and operating extension gicking and to have
the numbers right now. But it's verue to me. The
most likely listenarias that they're renegotiate the contract butt with
Fredick decline and extent, And there's a real possibility that
with that number in mind that does negotiation. It might
even be happening right now, because it would make sense

(01:25:36):
for the Rockets to know what the numbers, what sari
they will need to complement the decrease in in fred
Suri necturally would be so just to say it, long term,
it makes no sense for the Rockets to just to
let fred vent Fleet go. He's a art his current
salary he isn't but he is worth keeping around. He's

(01:25:58):
still a good player, and it makes sense from a
financial standpoint as well. So if you, I know, I know,
it's very easy to get caught up in the moment
and say, oh please, you get really, this guy isn't
good anymore from a financial stempoint, makes all the sense
in the world to keep them. From a locker room
management standpoint, past's as well. And even on the court,

(01:26:18):
if you do make a trade, let's say it's a
Dalen Green based trade for another star guard. But it's
a guy that you can that you can easily play
next to another start guard because of this catchiturability, and
someone that you can bring off the bench as a
six month to lead the second unit as he you know,
has his career draws too near or draws closer to

(01:26:38):
its end as he as he ages.

Speaker 2 (01:26:41):
Yeah, the last point I'll make on this discussion, you
don't want to have a situation where you're asking the
tail to wag the dog and if you make too
drastic of a change simply based on the theoretical idea
that hey, if we initiate more offense through Jalen Grain
or a Mentos and this is going to benefit him

(01:27:01):
and the team. He's going to get in more rhythm,
especially with a guy who's fairly low maintenance to begin
with in Fred and is open to being used differently
on the fly. If the situation warrants it for the team,
why wouldn't you. You know, there's a few little things
you can do. But to me, the more I think
about it, it makes more sense to go back to

(01:27:25):
the meritocracy framing the way I think ima Udoka has
largely run things since he took the job prior to
last season, and maybe it resolves itself anyway, because it's
a weaker stretch of the schedule. Jalen tends to go
off against a lot of those matchups, especially when teams
are hurt, and so he can use his speed his
athleticism a bit more and it's more powerful. And in

(01:27:46):
that case, you resolve the situation anyway, because Jalen will
take on the increased reps just on his own merit,
and Fred will be okay with that, just as he
was in Philadelphia and in Sacramento and in LA against
the Clippers. You don't have to force a move because
of what you think theoretically might happen. You can do
a little thing different here and there, but you can

(01:28:08):
also let the situation resolve itself through merit. And if
Jalen proves worthy of it the same way he has.
You know, it's maddeningly inconsistent, but there have been good games.
If he does that, then perhaps the situation resolves itself organically.
If you will to spend at full circle to the
Steven Silas years. Anyway, we'll wind down the pod here

(01:28:30):
because as Paul mentioned, we're about an hour and forty
minutes and now this one or longer shows. But boy,
we covered a lot of ground today and we went
on a little bit longer with the Texans hypothetical Rockets
Texans hypothetical. That is than I expected to going into
the show. After we wrap up, quick prediction from each
of us these next four games Pelicans twice, Raptors and

(01:28:50):
Hornets my call, and this is probably gutsy, I'm saying four. No.
I think on paper they'll be favored by the amount
in all those games. Now you worry about the potential
for letdown in one of them, but I think you know,
the Rockets are going to want to make amends for
the way they've played offensively of late. They're going to

(01:29:12):
be incentiviyes, they're going to have fresh legs. And here's
the thing. Of those four games on paper, what looks
like the most daunting is Charlotte on Night tub of
a back to back. But I think they're going to
take that game, especially seriously on Monday, because of what
happened in October, because of that season opening loss. I
think Charlotte will have their attention in a way that

(01:29:33):
normally the Hornets on Night two of a back to
back might not. And if you get that Charlotte game,
then the Hornets and Pelicans all with two days of
rest going into those games at least two days of
rest more than that in the case of the Pelicans.
I just struggle to see the Rockets losing any of
those games. So it sounds aggressive, but I'm going four

(01:29:54):
to h over this next week's stretch between the nineteenth
and the twenty six. What's your call, I'm with you.

Speaker 3 (01:30:01):
I'm going for ooh. I think being so defensive, defensive oriented,
and not to make a very very long wind, the
point about this, I think it's decreases are area. It's
just our varios exactly, and so I think I don't
think we'll blow any of these teams out, or we

(01:30:23):
may once or twice, but I think there'll be you know,
within ten fifteen points the entire time, sometimes less, sometimes more,
and it won't feel like we easily beat this team,
these teams, but that's just we don't easily beat in general.
That's just the type of game that we play. We
shouldn't make a lot of threes. They're not going to
blow teams off very easily unless you literally score or

(01:30:46):
one hundred, and you hold them to under eighty, which
is really tough in the NBA. So I think we'll
beat all four, but it won't feel as easy as
it would for a team like the Celtics or the
Thunder that would also beat these teams, but due to
the difference in play styles, would do it more. I
guess conventionally convincingly. But I do think we'll take out

(01:31:08):
of business. And I think when comparing us to a
team like the Celtics or of the Thunder, I think
it's less likely that will suffer an upset than it
is that they will suffer enough sut just because of variants.
But at the same time, when we do win, we
won't do it by law.

Speaker 2 (01:31:23):
Yeah, And if that happens, the Rockets would be twenty
one to nine through thirty games. Nice round number would
actually be at that point on a fifty seven point
four win pace at the thirty game mark, that would
be pretty amazing. And the schedule gets a little more
difficult after that, with a home stand against the Timberwolves,
the Heat, the MAVs, the Celtics, the Lakers, but those

(01:31:43):
are in Houston, where again Rockets are ten and three
this season actually a sixty three win pace inside of
Twitter Center. So even as the schedule gets a lot
more difficult, that's offset by i believe, your longest homestand
of the entire season right after Christmas. So even if
it feels like these matchups aren't nearly a sexy as
the ones we just saw in the NBA Cup, yeah,
there's a lot to play for because especially if you

(01:32:05):
can go four and oh and I agree with your
point that defense sort of decreases the variance. The Rockets
aren't as dependent on shot luck with their formula. I'm
sure some will point out that, well early in the
season they did have some bad losses to actually the
Hornets among them. I think what's changed is that at
the start the Rockets they felt, look, they had a
pretty good defense, and that was obviously something they wanted

(01:32:26):
to be their calling card. I think now, especially going
up against all these great opponents, and it's still translating,
the Rockets know they have a great defense. It's not theoretical.
They believe that they are the first or second best
defense in the NBA, and so with that comes a
lot more confidence. You're less likely to have a bad
night on that side, and I just think that a

(01:32:48):
team that's built with that as it's centerpiece. I agree
with your framing. It's less likely for a brutal upset.
You might be more likely for moderate sets and that
you know, a team that's good enough to be within
four or five points of view and the spread if
they have a hot shooting night and you don't have
the offense to overcome it. But it's you're going up

(01:33:11):
against teams that on paper you'll probably be favored by eight, nine,
ten plus points against. Then you add that's where being
a truly elite defensive team with a lot of depth
and rest on top of it in these games, that's
where I think you should really have an advantage. And
so that's why, even if it sounds aggressive, I'm going
for to oh as well. And if that's the case,

(01:33:32):
then we'll be talking right after Christmas about a twenty
one to nine basketball team on a pace to win
fifty seven plus games, which we be absolutely crazy. So yeah,
to go back to where we started the pod or
got to midway, and we started with the Texans comps.
But you know, I started my rant with why I
think some of the current pessimism and the discourse is overcooked. Yeah,
if they get to the thirty game mark and they're

(01:33:53):
tracking for upper fifties, how can you not love what
this season is about here in Houston. Anyway, You've got
on long enough, so I will wrap it here and
front more content before that next show, which will be
right around Christmas. Then the best place to get that
is online. You can follow me on Twitter x at
Bendubo's powow at Palo Alps NBA and the show at

(01:34:14):
the Logger Line, where if you go to the logger
Lines page then you can find our link tree that's
got links to distribution partners Apple, Google, Spotify. You kind
of have to subscribe with the positive view at your
location of choice. Obviously we would appreciate that. And also
on that same link tree, you've got links to friends, sponsors,
partners of the program, USA Today's Rockets, Work, Carback Brewings,
Sports Talk seven ninety. You have those links, please consume
their content as well. All right, with those plugs complete,

(01:34:36):
we'll a journ for tonight for Pollo and then thanks
to allways for listening, and please come back soon for
another episode of the Logger Line.

Speaker 3 (01:34:43):
Go Rockets,

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