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April 10, 2025 42 mins
With Houston (52-28) now locked into the No. 2 seed in the 2025 Western Conference playoffs, Thursday’s show explores the various considerations at play for Ime Udoka's squad.

Discussion topics include the rest vs. rust debate as the regular season winds down; which potential playoff opponents are best for the Rockets’ chances; and why the 2024-25 season should already be considered a success, even before the playoff run begins.
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Episode Transcript

Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:02):
Cheers, Rockets fans, Welcome to The Logger Line, an exclusive
podcast from the home of the Rockets, Sports Talk seven ninety.
The Logger Line, It's proudly served to you by car
Box Clutch City Lagger.

Speaker 2 (00:20):
It is good.

Speaker 1 (00:21):
Oh yeah, Red Nation, get Ready, Ready, get Ready. The
lagger Line starts now.

Speaker 2 (00:30):
Welcome aboard, Welcome in to another episode of the Logger Line,
as always served to you courtesy of Clutch City Lagger
of Carback Brewing. I'm Ben Dubo's, your host, editor of
Say Today's Rockets Fire and contributor to Sports Talk seven ninety,

(00:50):
official flagship radio station of your Houston Rockets. This is
going to be another quick mini cast episode. If you
follow both myself and Powo Owls, my usual co host
on Twitter slash x, you know that we've both been
traveling in recent days. We're both getting back into the
swing of things, so we're gonna wait for a couple
of days to do a full show, especially because we

(01:11):
are very close to getting a better sense of who
the Rockets could actually play in their first round playoff series.
I will start on Saturday the nineteenth or Sunday the twentieth.
Rockets The two seed in the West. They will play
the seventh seed, which will be determined by the first
play in tournament game held in the middle of the
next week. Regular season concludes this Sunday, play in games

(01:32):
in the middle of next week, and then the playoffs
begin the following weekend. So Paolo and myself we'll be
back with the full show previewing. Well. I think at
the end of this weekend we'll know the two teams
the Rockets can play, and then we'll dive in more
on the civic opponent towards the end of next week
once that first round series is set. This is just

(01:54):
gonna be a quick show reacting to the Rocket to
clench the number two seed, also clench another lottery pick
in the twenty twenty five draft cursy the Phoenix Suns
missing the playoffs, so I want to talk about that.
I'll also give some initial thoughts as far as who
the Rockets might want to play and avoid in the
first round and as they go into their final two

(02:14):
games the regular season Friday on the road against the
Lakers Sunday at home versus Denver. I'll give you a
few thoughts on verbial rest versus Russ debate and what
I think Imao Udoka and the Rockets will choose to do. Anyway,
Let's start with the headline, which is this season is
now a resounding success for the Rockets almost no matter

(02:37):
what I do. Throw a slight asterisk on it in
that if you get swept in the first round to
the playoffs and you lose by thirty points a game
and none of your young players look good, they all
look like the Jared Allen mean the lights were too
bright at that point, there might be a little bit
of a sour taste. But at this point and I

(02:57):
think that's a fairly unlikely scenario, so pretty much everything
else is something that you'll be happy with. So as
of this April tenth recording, again, Rockets have two games left.
They are fifty two and twenty eight. They are locked
at number two in the West. Realistically, they're fifty two
and twenty seven because the twenty eighth loss was the
one Wednesday night against the Clippers where almost no one

(03:20):
played from the regular rotation. Jalen Green was the only
starter who did, and he was on very limited minutes
at just fifteen With the Rockets clinching the two courtesy
of the loss from the Lakers the previous night. You're
at a point now where teams with nothing to play
for will generally make sure their guys are healthy for
the playoffs rather than go all out for games that
don't really have any implications as far as the path

(03:42):
ahead in the postseason. Getting guys healthy and being the
best version of themselves is much more important. Touch on
that a little bit and the Rest versus Russ debate
coming up. We've said in the last couple of pods
that there were multiple ways the end of the regular
season could play out. First, they needed the Rocket, that is,
get in the top six. That was the goal all along,

(04:03):
and they clinched that a week or so ago in
a strong Western Conference. For a team that was forty
one and forty one last year, still so young, that's
a big achievement in and of itself. The second goal
was getting in the top four and having home court
advantage and at least the first round. They cleared that.
The stretch goal what makes the regular season and a

(04:26):
plus if you were to grade it would be to
actually get the number two spot, where the Rockets have
hovered this year between number two and number five, and
there's been lots of peaks and valleys. We know they
generally peaked at least before this recent stretch in January,
then they had all those injuries. It felt like February
is when they sort of bottomed out, and so they've

(04:49):
oscillated a bit, but they've generally been in that top
six all year. So that's why towards the bottom part
was the baseline getting the top four in home court
advantage was sort of the you're okay scenario, and then
the resounding success scenario is that if you finish at
the top of your range, which is the number two,
the only team ahead of you being an absolutely loaded

(05:10):
Oklahoma City squad who, by the way, you just beat.
So it's not like they are completely untouchable for this
Rockets team, or at least I don't think the Rockets
believe the thunder are and there's something to be said
for that. To finish at number two and in the
top of your range, that's the best case, realistic outcome,
and the Rockets then only did it, but they did
it with three games still to play. Fifty two wins

(05:34):
could be as many as fifty four, and quite honestly,
it might have been fifty five had the Rockets not
taken their foot off the gas, because with the win
at Golden State on Sunday night, the Rockets had gone
fifteen to two in their previous seventeen games, just an
incredible stretch of basketball. When the Rockets needed to be
at their best, they responded with some of their best

(05:55):
ball of the entire season, And even when the schedule
got more difficult games against the under and the Warriors
this past weekend, they won both of those with relativise
by double digits. So it's not playoff ball just yet,
but I don't think it's a stretch to say that
this recent run has been playoff intensity, and to see

(06:16):
the team respond with the focus that they did, I
think it speaks well to what they are made of.
I think it speaks well to the coaching staff, the culture.
I think it bodes well for what they're going to
do in the playoffs, and more than that, I think
it speaks well to long term what they are potentially
able to build here in Houston. As the Rockets try

(06:37):
and get what has frequently been referred to as a
sustainable contender. They are still in the developmental stages. They
are not a full blown contender just yet, but these
are all really encouraging signs. And so to finish at
number two in the West, you're at a point now
we can reasonably say that, assuming it's not a catastrophic

(06:59):
loss in the playoffs, it's a success. No matter what.
You're far ahead of schedule. There's a reason the over
under are going into this year was forty three and
a half. They have blown past every realistic expectation, and
even if they go out in the first round, as
long as it's competitive. Look, the Western Conference is competitive
right now. The three through eight seeds. You have six

(07:20):
teams the Lakers, the Clippers, the Warriors, the Grizzlies, the Nuggets,
and the Timberwolves that are separated by two games with
thirty one and thirty three losses, and so all of
them are going to be at least at forty eight
forty nine wins. A lot of them are going to
be at fifty plus. This is a loaded West, and

(07:43):
so if you go down in the first round to
a seven seed, especially if it's one where you know,
if you draw the Warriors with Stephen Draymond, the Clippers
with Harden and Kawhi to a veteran leaden team with
multiple future Hall of Famers and All Star level players.
There's no shame in that. NBA history is littered with

(08:04):
examples of teams that had to take their lumps, that
didn't go immediately from rebuild. And you know last year
wasn't a true rebuilding year, but at forty one and
forty one they were mediocre. You typically don't go from
eocre to legit contender overnight unless you do something crazy
transformative like bring in Lebron James and Chris Bosh in

(08:25):
one off season, something of that nature. So even if
the Rockets go out in the first round to a
team that has a lot more proven pedigree that has
been there, done that in the playoffs before, there's no
shame in that. We know the Bulls had to lose
to the Pistons before they went on their dynasty in
the nineties. I'm not saying the Rockets are at that

(08:46):
level are going to be at that level. I just
bring up that example to illustrate the fact that throughout
NBA history, teams have usually had to take their lumps,
and so at this point, with the Rockets checking all
these boxes, seeing young players get better, Sjalen Green and
all Prince should go in your fourth year guys to
lead you to the playoffs. We know what they did

(09:06):
in March when a Men Thompson went down, we said
those were the two spotlight guys. They delivered. We know
what they did against the Thunder combining for sixty five
points on peak efficiency against the best team in the West,
the best defensive team in the NBA. Guys are stepping
up under the bright lights. Guys are getting better. The
culture is there, and even if you lose to a

(09:28):
team that has a bit more experience, well you're getting
that experience. That's the point of getting to the playoffs
and trust testing your model. So at this point, not
gonna say for sure there's some outlier things that might
make you feel a little bit mixed should they happen
in the playoffs, But realistically, I think at this point

(09:49):
it's all greavy. The Rockets have had a great year
and we're going to feel really good about this team
almost no matter what. At this point, the playoff run
is basically cherry on top of the Sunday, and who knows,
maybe they do something crazy good and it gets to
an even higher level. But no matter what, when you
consider where this franchise is at, when you consider how
young the core is, when you look at how they're

(10:12):
set up financially, this is a very sustainable model and
they are already well ahead of schedule. So I think
it's been a fantastic year, and it's one that at
this point everything that happens from the nineteenth onward is
just gravy in all likelihood. And I think we should
also note that as strong as the Rockets have looked

(10:35):
on the court, they also look that strong in the
front office. We can certainly talk about rafel Stone and
the job he did building this team, but in terms
of setting them up moving forward, Yeah, let's talk about
the Phoenix Suns missing the playoffs and the vision that
Rafell had to do that trade for the future Phoenix
Assets giving back two picks to the Nets last summer.

(10:56):
That is aging extremely well right now because of that swap, right,
you're going to be moving up from I believe the
Rockets with the fourth ust record in the league would
have the twenty seventh pick. Now you can swap it
to move all the way up to number ten. It's
already paying dividends, and I think realistically the way you
should look at this, So the Suns right now are

(11:19):
thirty five and forty five and they're in the number
or they're tied for the number nine spot in the
draft lottery. That's actually where the Nets were last year
when the Rockets swapped with them and moved up to
get Reed Shepherd or no, it wasn't a swap. The
Rockets had the outright pick from the Nets, But the
point is the same. The Suns right now are where

(11:41):
the Nets were a year ago, and had the Rockets
not given the Nets back their picks, I don't think
it's a stretch to say that the Nets would be
pretty much in the same spot because they would have
had no incentive to tank. Quite frankly, even trying to tank,
the Nets had enough on their roster or to where
right now they're twenty six and fifty three and in

(12:03):
the number six spot in the draft lottery. So even
trying to tank, they're not at the level of like
the Jazz the Wizards, the truly awful teams. So if
the Nets hadn't had their twenty twenty five pick, if
they hadn't had the path to Cooper flag. Potentially. I
don't think it's a stretch to say they would have
won a few more games somewhere between thirty and thirty

(12:23):
five and a bad Eastern Conference and been right where
they were a year ago at you know, somewhere between
let's say eight and eleven in the lottery standings, and
that's right where Phoenix is now. So basically it's like
you didn't even give up the twenty twenty five Brooklyn
pick because the Suns are right where, in my opinion,
the Nets likely would have been had you not done

(12:44):
that trade. So basically what you've done the twenty five
angle has canceled out. So you basically gave up one
pick in twenty twenty six from the Nets, who wouldn't
have had the incident to bought them out, and you've
got two future picks in twenty seven twenty nine from
an awful Suns team that has no future, no pathways

(13:04):
to get better, small market, and a twenty nine pick
from Dallas who just lost Luca two months ago and
looks like their future is in serious doubt as well.
So you got three future picks, three of the most
valuable future picks, and the entire NBA for one twenty
six pick from Brooklyn. That's what I think that trade

(13:25):
comes down to. Now that with the twenty five results
in the books, I think it's fair to say that
it canceled out. It came out a wash, and so
that trade is looking amazing. We'll see if the Rockets
use that leverage on the Suns to try and get
a deal for Kevin Booker, shoot Kevin Durand or Kevin
Booker in the months ahead. Maybe the Rockets don't even

(13:47):
need to make a trade like that because they have
enough internally. We've certainly seen it in recent weeks with
the Rockets going fifteen to two down the home stretch
of this season. Maybe the Rockets don't even need to
exert that leverage on the Suns and they can just
use those picks to to have a developmental pipeline to
cheap role players as the roster gets more expensive and
thegger's ahead. There's multiple ways that it can play out.

(14:08):
But I think when you look at the Suns finishing
the year with probably thirty five thirty six wins, the
foresight by rafel Stone to get that deal done and
the way that's shaping up as good as the Rockets
look on the floor, led by ima Udoka and the
young players Jalen Green and men Thompson all pro and
Shongoon all kicking leaps in their development. By the way,

(14:31):
Reed shepherds look good when he's gotten opportunities. We know
we did against Oklahomay a month ago. He did much
the same thing against the Clippers on Wednesday night in LA.
It's a team that looks great on the floor, but
from a management perspective, rafel Stone some of the big
picture deals that he's done and not done. The Fertidas,
Tillman and Patrick the foresight they had to not shortcut

(14:54):
the rebuilding process and to give rafel Stone the latitude
to implement his vision. It's a team, it's an organization
that is set up for success, not just on the court,
but off it as well. And I think seeing the
trade with the Suns already pay dividends to the extent
that it has, it should remind you of that it's
not as important as the on court product. Everybody at

(15:16):
Toy Listener is focused on the team, and for good reason.
Finishing at number two, you're now in line to not
only avoid the Oklahoma City Thunder until at least the
Western Conference Finals, and that's if they make it. You're
on the opposite side of the bracket, but you're also
in line to have home court advantage in multiple rounds
of the playoffs. Rockets, they're twenty nine and eleven at

(15:37):
home this year for twelve and two since the All
Star Break. For a young team that you worry about
their lack of experience, getting games early in playoff series
at home should definitely help. For a Houston market that
hasn't had playoff basketball since twenty nineteen. Last time Rockets
are in the playoffs in twenty twenty, and that was
the COVID Bubble year. It's been since May twenty nineteen
since you've had playoff basketball at Toya Center, So I

(15:58):
think the crowd should be incredible. Once we get to
the nineteenth or twentieth and playoff basketball officially starts in Houston,
that should only help. Again, the focus organizationally is on
the here and now, because there is a window in
front of you. Even if it's unlikely if you're number
two in a strong West, crazier things have happened than
that team getting deep into the playoffs, and maybe the

(16:19):
stars align, maybe you get a bounce here or there,
maybe some other team has a bad injury. Crazier things
have happened than a team like the Rockets doing serious
damage and maybe even contending for a title this year.
I don't expect it, but if you're number two in
a strong West and you have home court advantage in
multiple rounds, that's the focus. This is not a year
that you can just throw aside. Opportunities like this do

(16:41):
not always show up. The focus organizationally is on the
here and now for a good reason. But I think
as fans we can appreciate both the here and now
and the long term. And so the juxtaposition of what
the Rockets are doing themselves with the decline of the
Phoenix Suns, the foresight from Rafelstone, Tilman Fort, Patrick Fertita,
the GM ownership, it should tell you that the Rockets

(17:04):
are set up not just for the present, but for
the future as well, and so it's a really good
time to be a fan of the Rockets, all right.
So I want to transition the rest of our discussion
to who the Rockets should want to play in the
first round and also how they should play out the

(17:27):
remainder of this season, the final two games this weekend
against the Lakers and the Nuggets. In terms of rest
versus rust, I'll start with the first round discussion. So,
as mentioned, there are six teams the Rockets could conceivably play,
the Lakers, the Clippers, the Nuggets, the Grizzlies, the Timberwolves,

(17:47):
and oh the Warriors. That's who I'm forgetting all between
thirty one and thirty three losses between number three and
number eight in the West, and the Rockets at number
two will play the winner of the play in game
between the two teams that finish at number seven and
number eight. So with two games left to play and
all those teams separated by two losses or less, they're

(18:10):
all still in the mid somehow to finish anywhere in
that band. Well, there's a couple of them that can't
get all the way to three, But in terms of
who can get to seven or eight, they're all in play.
Some are less likely than others. I think the Lakers
in particular are not likely to drop, especially because the
Lakers play the Rockets on Friday night. I think the
Rockets are highly likely to be in rest mode at
least an extent in that game. More on that momentarily.

(18:33):
So I think realistically you're looking at the five team
group between thirty two and thirty three losses, the ones
that are really close, the Timberwolves, the Grizzlies, the Nuggets,
the Warriors, and the Clippers, and so I think in
terms of x's and o's, you can certainly argue for
the Grizzlies. The Rockets went three and one against them

(18:54):
this year. The one loss was a game they didn't
have all per eche goon at the end of a
road trip, and they lost it in the final seconds,
So I think you feel good about that matchup. The
Grizzlies fired Taylor Jenkins a couple of weeks ago, so
there's instability in the leadership ranks there. So I think
there's a lot of reasons that you should feel good
about Memphis. I also think, though, that you could make

(19:17):
a compelling case for Golden State, even though they've looked
very good overall since adding Jimmy Butler at the trade deadline.
The Rockets, what they did defensively the other night in
San Francisco was incredible, and it's not just a one off.
The five games the Rockets played the Warriors this year,
including two with Jimmy Butler. The Warriors offensive rating, and

(19:38):
they're usually a pretty good offensive team, would have been
dead last in the entire NBA. Sunday, they scored just
ninety points. Steph Curry was blanketed by Amen Thompson, who
at this point looks like a first team All Defense
guy you could even argue or Defensive Player of the Year.
I think he probably won't get it in just his
second year, but that's how good he's been. And the Warriors,
Steph Curry, Raymond Green, they had just lowing words of

(20:02):
praise for a man after Sunday's game, in which he
held Staph to just three points in one of ten shooting,
the lowest points in Steph's entire career in a game
that he's played at least thirty minutes. An eleven time
All Star, four time champion, two time MVP, future Hall
of Famer three points at home on one of ten shooting.
That's how good the Rockets defense was a men individually
and then collectively. Again, we've talked about this team all year.

(20:25):
There have been peaks and valleys, but by and large,
they've been a top five defense all year somewhat middle
of the pack offensively, although a little bit better than
the middle of the pack. Now they're at I think
eleventh in terms of offensive rating, fourth in defensive rating.
But the defense has carried the team, and they've been
especially dominant against Golden State, where again, in five games
against the Warriors team that's going to fish with about

(20:47):
fifty wins, the Rockets have held them to what would
be the worst offensive performance of any NBA team all year.
And so I think you could argue that it's a
good matchup for the Rockets. I think all the long
wings the Rockets have, you can throw Tarry Easton into
that mix as well, the veteran presence and physicality of
Dylan Brooks. We know what Jewbry Smith has been able

(21:08):
to do off the bench, to throw all of those
guys at Steph Curry. And then in terms of the
ball movement, the Rockets are a very well coach team.
They're high IQ defensively. I think that's only gonna throw
up even more in the playoffs, and they can hone
in on one opponents. So the way the Warriors play
with the ball movement, the player movement, I don't think
it's nearly as effective against the Rockets as it is

(21:29):
against most teams. I think you can argue from an
ex's nose perspective, that's a really good matchup for the Rockets.
And if there was any mental scarring, because we know
going into this year there was a long losing streak
dating back multiple years Rockets against the Warriors. Now Houston's
won two of the last three meetings against Golden State,
the last one by double digits in San Francisco, and
the only loss in the final three was a close

(21:51):
one on night two of a back to back right
for the All Star Break, when the Rockets were on fumes.
So the results are turning around. Really, if you looked
at a couple of loss as the Rockets had to
the Warriors early in the year, they were pretty fluky
in that the defense was fabulous, the Rockets just couldn't
make a shot many of those threes wide open. Well,
now the threes are going in at a more respectable level,
and the defense has stayed consistent in terms of what

(22:12):
they've done against the Warriors, shutting down Steph Curry and
the player slash bald movement that defined fed offense under
Steve Kerr, and so I think you could argue that
that might be the best matchup for the Rockets. I
think you know X's knows. The one I worry about
at the most, and I've said before, is the minster
of Timberwolves experienced the Western Conference Finals around a year ago,
but more the Anthony Edwards factor, just the physicality that

(22:36):
he plays with the ability to take it to another
level on both ends of the floor, what he can
do against Jalen Green potentially, I worry about that matchup
tactically the most, even though the Rockets did beat them
a couple of times this season. I worry about the
Warriors tactically. You're not Guya say I don't worry about
him at all, But I personally put them right in
the same bucket as the Grizzlies in terms of a

(22:56):
matchup that I think on paper should be very favorable
to the Rocket But I think the two teams that
I would ultimately go with in terms of my preferences
would actually be the Grizzlies and the Nuggets. And the
reason for that is the mental side of the game,
which I think is even more important for the Rockets
given how the team is constructed given the factors we

(23:18):
were just discussing with how young this team is and
the lack of experience, and the fact that NBA history
is literally with examples of teams that had to take
their lumps in the playoffs. The Grizzlies and Nuggets are
in fairly unprecedented situations of being playoff teams that went
through coaching changes in the last ten games of the
regular season. And look, I'm not going to say that

(23:38):
those organizations made mistakes in doing that, because if you
determine that, you know, the Grizzlies with Taylor Jenkins, the
Nuggets of Michael Malone, if you've come to the conclusion
if that's not the guy for the future, that Okay,
I can understand the case that you should get data
in a different construct in terms of how players are used,
and maybe you catch lightning in a box and that

(24:00):
you're putting in an entim coach that other teams haven't
seen before. You're using guys in different ways and maybe
in the short term it benefits you, maybe it's a
shot in the arm, maybe the team rallies around it. Okay,
you can argue that, and I'm not gonna say that
those teams made a mistake. There could be something to that. However,
I think what those moves do, even if they are justifiable,

(24:24):
those are putting out all cap statements that the most
powerful people in those organizations, and I highly doubt the
owners the GMS did those moves without having at least
some knowledge of how the power brokers on the team itself.
Guys like Nicola Jokish Jehan Morant felt about things. You
don't do those types of transformative moves in the final

(24:47):
month of the year with ten games or less left,
unless you think that it's not going to end well.
You don't have a lot of self confidence in the
way the team is currently built if you make a
move of that magnitude. And that's not to say it
was a mistake again, I think you can justify it.
But in terms of matching up with the Rockets specifically,

(25:10):
and the lack of experience for most of this group
on the big stage, I think not having a disadvantage
in terms of the mental side of the game going
into the playoffs could be really big, because if you're
playing a team like the Grizzlies or the Nuggets, those
are teams that you could get potentially into Cancude mode

(25:33):
pretty early if you were to get hot in those
first two games at home, ride the emotion of what
should be a crazy home crowd. We know how the
Rockets play defensively and on the glass when it comes
to rebounding, when they are energized, when they are motivated.
If the Rockets can hit them with a left hook
early in those series, those are the types of teams

(25:54):
that might fade. And conversely, if it goes the other
way and the Rockets are not quite themselves, they have
a bad shooting night because the lights are a little
bright and they're not used to the stage. Well. Even
if a team like the Grizzlies or the Nuggets wins
a road game one or a road game two and

(26:15):
steals home court advantage early in that first round series,
it's not gonna undo all the baggage that's been built
up for making a transformative change like that. By the way,
the Nuggets moved out their GM as well. You're not
gonna undo all of that with one road win in
the first round of a playoff series. So even if
the Rockets fall behind the eight ball early, it's easier

(26:38):
for them to strike back and win a road game
or two, game three, game four, and take back home
court advantage and get back where you need to be.
Those teams are mentally fragile. Even if there's big names
like Nikola Jokich, a multi time MVP, like John Moran,
a multi time All Star, those are teams that for
this season at least, don't have a lot of self

(26:58):
belief and so so you can rattle them very easily.
Ideally you do it right out of the dude, but
if it takes a couple of games, I think you
can easily get back in the series because those are
not teams that are going to be particularly confident in
terms of their ability to go out and beat you.
They won't be mentally beaten. They'll try, but I think

(27:19):
the Rockets, especially, they get off to a good start.
And conversely, even if they need to make up ground
because the experience haunts them early in a series, they're
not going to be at a massive disadvantage on the
mental side as opposed to you know, I mentioned the
Warriors being a good AXS and O's matchup. I think
they are, But the more I think about it, I
don't want to draw them in the playoffs. Because I

(27:40):
think the culture of that team Steve Kerr, Steph Curry,
Draymond Green. Now you throw in Jimmy Butler as well,
that's a team that I don't care who they play,
I don't care what their record is. They're not going
to be phased by the moment. They've been there, done that.
They believe that they're going to figure it out when
it matters more Against a Rockets team that jong and

(28:02):
hasn't done that before, that's the kind of team where
you can be at a disadvantage, especially if things don't
go your way early in a series, and then it
can be very hard to beat a team like that
on the road. I think the same can apply with
the Clippers and the Timberwolves. I think the Timberwolves most
part have the bones of a team that went to

(28:23):
the Western Conference Finals last year. They're coached very well
by Chris Pinch. They had to take their lumps this
year because of the trade racer for training camp sending
Karl Anthony Towns to the next for Julius Randall and
the Bencenzo, But they figured it out as the season
has moved along, and then the team itself, the way
they play certainly Anthony Edwards and nas Reed, but most
of the role players from last year are still around

(28:44):
their team that has a lot of pedigree, that got
good coaching, They've got the experience. There's a culture there
the Clippers, tylu Kawhi Leonard, even James Harden, there's a
culture there. They trust one another, and they've played well.
After beating the Rockets the other night, they're now sixteen
and three in their last nineteen games. Even if when
I throw out the game against the Rockets and not

(29:05):
really consider that because the Rockets weren't really trying, they
were in rest mode, well, fifteen and three in the
previous eighteen, they're playing better. To me, those are the
types of teams, and if somehow the Lakers were to
fall apart and to fall into that mix, which I
don't think is likely, they're a unique case. But I
just think that you know, certainly they're high on JJ Reddick,

(29:27):
and I think just the Lebron and Luca factor, you're
probably not going to see those guys get rattled. But
that's again, I don't expect to see the Lakers in
the mix for seven or eight. I think you're looking
at teams like the Clippers, the Wolves, the Warriors, the Nuggets,
and the Grizzlies. And to me, it's the Nuggets and
the Grizzlies, probably the Grizzlies at the top of that list,

(29:48):
because I think the Grizzlies check both boxes. It's a
good x's and No's matchup for the Rockets, and I
think it's a good mental matchup for the Rockets. The Nuggets,
it's a good mental matchup because of you know, the
coaching change, the lack of belief, the questionable self confidence. Matchup. Maybe,
but they came into Houston and One a couple of
weeks ago, and the Rockets did not look like they
had many answers for Jamal Murray, so I don't think

(30:09):
it's quite as favorable as the Grizzlies would be. So
I would rank the Grizzlies as my preferred matchup, Nuggets
probably second preferred, and then the teams that would worry
I mean not saying the Rockets can't beat them, but
the Warriors especially, and also the Clippers and the Stumber Bowls.
Teams that have established veteran stars, established coaches, established cultures.

(30:30):
Those are the ones where a Rockets team that's fairly
green could be at a little bit of a disadvantage.
Not that they couldn't overcome it, but I think the
story for the Rockets and the playoffs, really their first
trip for most of these guys, is going to be
about how they handled the moment and so playing immediately
in Round one against one of those teams that has
a lot of experience and established culture that knows what

(30:52):
they're doing and doesn't have the cloud hanging over them
the way the Grizzlies and Nuggets do because of all
the organizational changes in recent those are the ones where
the rockets relative inexperience could be more of a factor.
And so it's not that the Rockets couldn't win those series.
I'm not saying I would predict them to lose those series,
but they would worry me a little bit more. So.
That's why I basically I have two tiers. I have

(31:14):
the Grizzlies and Nuggets teams I would most want to play,
and then the Warriors, Clippers, and Timberwolves in the lower tier.
I think I would actually have said this a few times.
I would probably prefer playing the Timberwolves the least. I
just think that's a tough matchup. I trust what they've
done in the past, and the Warriors and Clippers, even
though they are veteran Layton. Again, the Rockets have had

(31:34):
results we don't want. The Rockets have done defensively against
Golden State. Against the Clippers, the Rockets went three to
zero when they were trying. Now, I know they didn't
have Kawhi letters games, but I think the matchup is
pretty good. Paolo's talked about you can check out our
archives why it's fairly favorable to the Rockets. Zubox isn't
going to play shouingoon off the floor, so I would
probably lean to Minnesota as my least favorite matchup, then

(31:57):
the Warriors and Clippers, and then the Nuggets and Grizzlies
being teams that I would most want to play amongst
the realistic options. And again you're not going to even
if there's an upset in the play in tournament and
some team in that you're most likely the Kings and
the MAVs. Well, actually they're both clinched because you have
the Suns are now mathematically eliminated. So even if the
Kings are the MAVs, the teams that are in the

(32:17):
nine and ten slots. If one of them was to
somehow get into the playoffs, it would be as the
eight seeds, so they are not in consideration to play
the Rockets. The Rockets would play one of those teams
in the three through eight range in the standings, because
seven through eight is going to play to determine the
seven and that will be the team playing the Rockets
on Saturday the nineteenth or Sunday the twentieth in game
one in the first round. Now, as far as how

(32:43):
the Brockets will play things over the next few days
to get ready for that first round playoff series, you
can argue for rest and you can argue for rust
from the standpoint of playing guys to avoid rust, and
hemy Udokas said that is a factor in comments from
the Clippers game. He said, you don't want to be
too rusty and playing some of your guys in these

(33:05):
final two games so that the momentum they've built up
lately again fifteen to two in seventeen games prior to
clinching the number two doesn't go away by the time
you open up the playoffs on the nineteenth or twentieth.
There's arguments you can make on both sides but for me,
I lean much more to rest. I think this is

(33:26):
a team we know when they struggled the most in February,
they were not healthy. That was the story. And so
you've got guys with nagging injuries Fred and men with
ankle issues. You've got Shingoon off and on with his back.
These are situations where if you have the luxury to
give guys a week or so off before the playoffs,
or mostly a week or so off, you can potentially

(33:50):
reap the rewards. And in the last part I talked
about how getting the best version of Fred than Vliet
is critical for this team. He hasn't been healthy for
the majority of this season. He's now thirty one years old.
As an under size point guard in the NBA, there's
a lot of mileage. The one game where it looked
like he had some juice was against the under last week,
and that was one of the Rockets' best games of

(34:10):
the season. One by fourteen. The headliners were Jalen and Shinoon,
but Fred in thirty seven minutes, had thirteen points, six assists,
no turnovers, made five of nine overall and three of
seven shots from three point range forty three percent, so
the Rockets got the best version of Fred beIN Fleet
and they beat the NBA's best team by fourteen points.
When the Rockets compare what they do defensively, and these

(34:31):
young guys that are getting better, like Jalen, like Shingoon,
like him, men with an efficient version of fredvan Vleet,
something closer to what they had last season his first
in Houston. That's when they go from good to great.
That's when they become potentially lethal. And we should note
that Fred ben Fleet took off the previous game against
the Jazz, so he had not played in four days.

(34:53):
There was a gap between the previous Monday game against
the Lakers when he was terrible, shot just two of fourteen,
didn't play again until fighting the thunder, and then he
came back fresh and efficient. And so with Fred in particular,
he's someone I think you should be very mindful of
the mileage you put on him down the home stretch
of this year. And if you can get those ankles
healthy to where he's feeling pretty springy by the nineteen

(35:15):
through the twentieth, that can be a huge variable for
this team. But I just think overall, there might be
a couple of guys, especially the younger ones that don't
really have any injuries, that you play out there to
build continuity. But for the most part, there's a reason
why historically in the NBA there's not a strong correlation

(35:36):
with how teams play in the final couple weeks of
the regular season and what happens in the playoffs, because
the rust angle is already baked in based in the
fact that there's a week off between the regular season
finales on the previous Sunday and the start of the
playoffs on the next Saturday and Sunday. And especially if

(35:56):
you're in the top two seedson you're playing a play
in tournament team that had to play leads one game
in the middle of the week, which the Rockets at
number two are going to be doing, you were already
at something of a rust disadvantage in that it's not
normal to go a week or more without basketball during
the NBA season. That typically doesn't happen. So there is

(36:20):
some concern with rust, but I would argue that it
would be there no matter what. An NBA history shows
us that it could be there no matter what. Now
it doesn't have to be We can look back to
you one example I would point to in twenty eighteen
when the Rockets went sixty five and seventeen. They clinched
the one seed in the West with like two weeks left,
and they went out and were dominant in the first

(36:41):
two rounds of the playoffs, both four games to one
gentleman sweeps. So it doesn't have to translate. I know
that was a sixty five win team, but the point
is even doing it through that lens. They went out
and dominated those series, won by huge margins, especially early on.
So in terms of overcoming potential rust and trying to

(37:02):
get back to the peak version of yourself in the
regular season, which it felt like the Rockets were in
the second half of March and the very beginning of April,
which culminated with those two wins against the Thunder and
the Warriors last weekend. That was always going to be
a little bit of a factor based on the week
or more gap between the end of the regular season
and it started the playoffs, not gonna act like there's

(37:24):
no nuance and that it can't be made worse. So
because of that, I think I agree with what Emay said,
which is basically, they'll play all out in one of
those two final games against the Lakers and the Nuggets,
probably not both. I would agree with that. I think
you want to have at least one tune up game,
at least a partial tune up game, depending on the score.
Maybe they don't go all out in the fourth quarter. Yeah,

(37:45):
there's something to be said for that, but I think
in the bigger picture, rest is far more important because
you're gonna have to contend with RUSS factors no matter what.
That's already baked in, so you may as well focus
on having the best version of your team physically, and
especially with some of these nagging injuries. Bright as the headliner,

(38:06):
but Amen's had his own ankle issues, Shangoon with the back,
Jabari with the ankle and the groin. We know the
situation with Tari that's been off and on all year
and his first year coming off of leg surgery. Steven
Adams is someone they didn't list his out, but clearly
in his first year off of like surgery, they're being
mindful of his minutes as well. There are a lot
of guys on that roster that you shouldn't be like

(38:28):
super worried about, but that you can't be unconcerned with either,
and so with that in mind, especially if you're already
going to be contending with Russ to a degree, that
makes me prioritize rest much more. Not entirely, I do
think that at least for let's say three quarters of

(38:49):
one game, it makes sense to give them at least
a trial run. But I think by and large rest
is a much bigger factor. And then you can use
your practices next week. And this is a situation where
the Rockets talk about the stay ready crew and guys
that don't play a lot but certainly can in a
pinch towards the end of the bench. Guys in your

(39:11):
second and even third units, all the way down your bench,
like Jack Landale, Jeff Green, Jay Shan Tate, have competitive practices.
Go out and take those midweek scrimmages Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday
of next week at your brand new training facility. Use
those as the tune up. Let guys get right over

(39:31):
these next few days, then build them back up right
before the playoffs the few days immediately preceding it. To me,
that's the play You've got the depth that you can
have competitive practices. You can get guys sharp without having
to expose them to the risk of games. It's even
so much exposing them to the risk of games, it's

(39:53):
more allowing them to rest, have a few days to
let these soft tissue injuries heal without it being right
before the playoffs, Because if you give guys a lot
of days off right before the playoffs, that's where you
can run into perhaps some conditioning issues or the jump
shots are off. But if you give them rest days now,

(40:14):
then you can take the practices in the days immediately
before the playoffs much more seriously, go more all out there,
and then from a conditioning standpoint, in terms of how
guys are shooting, how they're feeling, they're much more ready
to go. So it's for that reason, more than an
injury risk per se, that I would lean to using

(40:35):
this week the majority of it, at least to let
these guys heal up, let those nagging issues that may
have flared up over the Rockets have had to play
pretty aggressively to win fifteen to seventeen games heal up. Now,
for the most part, you can have one game where
you actively pursue it, especially if maybe you think it's
to your advantage to beat the Lakers or Nuggets. Perhaps
you can chase that, but for the most part, I

(40:58):
think you prioritize rest right now, and then you build
guys up more aggressively in the days right before the playoffs,
so that they're chomping at the bit and ready to
go come Saturday or Sunday next week when every thing's
open up. You're at home at Tutors in the two
versus seven series in the first round of the West. Anyway,
that'll do it for today's show, and again we'll have
more content in the days ahead. Both Pollo and myself

(41:21):
are getting back from our recent travels. We're getting our
legs under us. We're also waiting for more clarity in
terms of who the Rockets may play in the first round.
So when we're a bit more arrested and we have
more clarification on who the Rockets are actually going to play,
we'll have full shows, we may have interviews, we'll have
more content to get you ready for the playoffs, and
of course we'll have a lot of content during the
playoff run as well. These are just some initial thoughts

(41:42):
with the Rockets within the last forty eight hours, having
clenched the number two seed in the West, getting more
clarification on the short term future. These are just my
thoughts on the state of play right now, and then
we'll expand upon them more with Paolo with other guests
as we get more intel as well about who the
Rockets are likely to play once their playoff fun begins
next weekend. Anyway, that'll do it for today, But if

(42:04):
you want more content before those next shows, the best
place to get it is on Twitter, slash x. You
can follow me at Benjubo's and you can also follow
the show at the logger line. If you go to
logger lines link tree in the bio, you can find
links to certainly our distribution partners Apple, Google, Spotify. If
you're not already subscribed, left positive review please do that
will help us. But also you've got links your friends
sponsors partners of the program USA Today's Rockets we are

(42:25):
Carbark Brewing, Sports Talx seven ninety. You have those links
and you can enjoy their content as well. Okay, with
the plugs complete, I will adjourn for today again. I'm
Benjubo's editor of USA Today's Rockets. War contribute to Sports
Talk seven ninety official flash reprodotation of the team. As
always thanks for listening, and please do Maxsom for more
new episodes of the Blogger Line, Go Rockets,
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