January 5, 2025 • 28 mins
Sunday’s mini-episode features Ben’s reaction to Jabari Smith Jr. breaking his left hand, including potential lineup and rotation implications for players such as Amen Thompson, Alperen Sengun, Cam Whitmore, Jae’Sean Tate, Tari Eason, and Jalen Green.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Cheers, Rockets fans, Welcome to The Logger Line, an exclusive
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Speaker 2 (00:30):
Welcome aboard, Hey guys. Benjubo's here, editor of USA Today's
Rockets Whire, a contributor to Sports Talk seven ninety, official
flagship radio station of the Rockets, doing a special mini
cast episode of The Logger Line, served to you as always,
(00:50):
Critici a clutch to the logger of Carbuck Brewing. Reacting
to this weekend's news of Ja Boycewood Junior being lost
for at least a month with the fracture in its
laft non shooting hand, Polo and I published our full
episode on Friday morning, and as fate would have it,
within a few hours there was breaking news that sort
of changed the narrative, at least for the time being,
(01:12):
of what the Rockets look like over the next few weeks.
On the floor, Jabari had started a power forward every
game this year. Not the flashiest guy, but very solid,
averaging about twelve point seven rebounds per game, solid shooting
from three point range, reliable mid range threat, very versatile, defensively,
spaces the floor, can defend so many positions, had gotten
(01:35):
a lot better as a week side rim protector. So
even if he's not someone you immediately think of when
it comes to the standout players on this team, I
think all Parin Shrangou and a Men Thompson to some
extent Jalen Green would be those guys you will definitely
miss Jabari Smith Junior. So I want to do an
episode of reacting to It'll be a short one, but
(01:58):
just reacting to the news and talking about what to
watch for over the coming games and weeks because it
is a difficult stretch of the schedule. So Jabari going
out in a month where it's pretty difficult for you
to begin with, and you also don't have Tary easton
for the foreseeable future due to ongoing issues with his
lower left leg. Yeah, there's a lot to watch for
(02:19):
as the Rockets get back on the court tonight against
the LA Lakers with a Men Thompson starting in place
of Jabari Smith at power forward. So first things first,
let's talk about the injury and why there is a
small soilber lining in that it's a fracture to his
non shooting hand, so unlike the Tari Easton situation, and
(02:39):
unlike any issues related to ligaments or lower body parts,
this is something that when Jabari is cleared, he should
be all systems go from the outset. There have been
other examples of breaking this same bone I believe fourth
metacarpal non shooting hand. I looked up a few years
ago Gordon Hayward had the same injury to his left
(03:02):
non shooting hand had surgery to correct it, which the
Rockets do believe that Jabari will need, and Hayward was
back in exactly one month and playing starters minutes immediately,
So Jabari will be able to stay in shape during
this I guess time off because obviously it's not an
issue with his legs, so there shouldn't be any conditioning issues.
(03:24):
It's his non shooting hand, so pretty much as soon
as that bone is healed and he's given medical clearance,
he should be able to ramp up very quickly and
get back on the floor. So this is not something
that should stick with him the rest of the season
unless it's just a far worse fracture than the average
one in the NBA, and hopefully that won't be the case.
This was actually suffered at shoot around on Friday, so
(03:46):
I doubt the injury was all that severe because you
typically don't see players going all out in a shoot
around setting. Not unprecedented, but generally speaking, it's a risk
because obviously it's a context where this stuff happens. The
Rockets have been fairly lucky this year with injuries that
seems to be turning around in recent weeks, and now
they'll have to lean on their depth a little bit
(04:07):
to overcome it. But I don't think that given the
setting and what we know about this injury at taking
place in shoot around, that it's likely to be a
significantly worse than usual fracture, and so knock on wood.
Assuming that's the case, I think give it four to
six weeks worst case. If he needs it, you can
(04:28):
sort of buy him an extra week with the All
Star break in mid February. I think by the end
of February he should be all systems go like he
never left. If anything, maybe he'll be a little bit
better because you're letting him have a break in the
middle of the regular season to recharge in a way
that a lot of younger players need as they're getting
used to the eighty two game grind. Now, as far
(04:51):
as what it means for the Rockets on the floor,
I think in a lot of games it might not
be a huge deal because the Rockets are a deep team.
We know the stay ready crew. Danielle Lerner, new beat
writer for The Chronicle, had a really good story about
them this weekend, And so beyond the rotation guys, you
look at the ten through fourteen spots on the bench,
(05:13):
where you've got guys like Kim whitmore like Jase shun
Tate like Aaron Holliday. The Rockets are more able, at
least in the short term, to absorb these injuries than
most other teams, and so especially against lesser teams, you
can plug and play some of those guys and you
probably won't notice a difference, especially because Amen Thompson as
(05:35):
a starter has been tremendous this year. You look at
his numbers in the five games that he started to date,
Rockets are four and one. The only loss was that
improbable one to the Minnesota Timberwolves in which they looked
really good in that game. But a Men as a
starter is basically averaging seventeen points ten boards per game.
His true shooting percentage is almost sixty four. We know
how virtually is defensively, how insanely athletic, He's a lob threat.
(05:59):
He does so many things that no disrespect to Jabari,
but no one else on this roster can do, including Jabari.
So I think there's a case to be made that
a Men Thompson starting a power forward might actually make
you a better team relative to Jabari Smith Junior, at
least with the starting lineup. Now, it's not that simple
because you do have to replace the minutes that you're
(06:21):
losing a men from off the bench with those second units.
But number one, the rockets, you know they were leaving
a little bit of meat on the bone to begin with.
Playing only twenty eight minutes per game for a Men Thompson,
you can easily stretch that to thirty six thirty eight,
so you can replace Jabari with a Men. I know
there could be some floor spacing concerns because both the
(06:43):
Men and Shangoon aren't centers, so it won't be a
total apples to apples comparison. To when a men start
at power forward after Shangoon's injury last season next to
Jabari Smith Junior. No, now you'll be starting two non
shooters in a men in Shingoon. But I think the
way a men moves off the ball, the value he
provides as a lob threat, the synergies with a men
(07:04):
in Shiningoon, which we've seen at times these last two seasons,
I think they'll find a way to make it work.
And when you look at the overall package as a
basketball player, No, a man is not as capable of
a shooter as Jabari. He's also not as tall or
as thick. But when you look at the versatile defense,
the athleticism, the IQ, the handle, all the things that
(07:25):
he can bring, I don't think it's a stretch to
say that Amen Thompson is a better basketball player than Jabari.
And that's not a shy at Jabari. That's more a
compliment to a men and just how good he is.
And even if you lose him from the bench units, again,
you can mitigate some of that by simply stretching his
minutes a men that is from twenty eight to somewhere
in the thirty six to thirty eight range, and so
(07:48):
that'll probably give you just about twenty minutes that you
have to fill for those second units that were otherwise
going to a MEN. I think in the short term
the obvious candidates to replace that will be Cam Whitmore
and Jashon Tate. And while there will be a hit
going from a Men to Cam or Tate in those minutes,
(08:09):
at the same time, because it's largely against backups, it
won't be as much as you might think initially. Obviously
we hope that Tari Easton will be able to fill
some of those Moving forward, in that scenario, it might
not feel any impact at all. But Tari's missed three
weeks tonight I assume will be his ninth straight absence.
He's listed as doubtful, so I'll believe Tari's back when
(08:32):
I see it. I think more reasonably you can expect
in the short term Cam whit More in Jashon Tate
to be the forward options to fill some of those
benchminutes then had otherwise gone to a Men. And while
there will be a little bit of a hit, I
don't think it will be massive against backups, and I
think with the upgrade of you know, extending Amen's minutes
and getting a men at power forward instead of Jabari. Overall,
(08:54):
I don't think it's going to be a huge impact
against most teams. That's the silver life. If you can
stay healthy, then a lineup of Fredentlee, Jalen Green, Dylan
Brooks and Men Thompson and all pri and Shongoon should
be just fine. So while you'll definitely miss Jabari in
certain configurations, on the whole, when you consider the depth
(09:17):
the Rockets have and being able to lean on guys
like him Whitmore and Jay Shong Tate that can be
solid NBA players, I think most nights you'll be okay.
I do think, however, there is one particular setting where
you're really going to miss Jabari, and I think you're
especially going to see it against good teams. And that's
what makes the timing of Jabari's injury really problematic, because
(09:38):
you do have a very difficult schedule coming up in
the weeks ahead. You've got two against Cleveland. I think
you've got three against Memphis this month. You've also got
the Knicks coming up. You've got the Celtics again in Boston.
So I believe the rest of the way The Rockets
have the second most difficult schedule in the NBA, and
a lot of those come over the next month that
we expect Jabari to be out, and in those settings,
(10:03):
not having the option of turning to a lineup with
Jabari Smith Junior at the five is going to be
potentially problematic. I think that was a very valuable insurance
policy for ime Udoka. He didn't do it nearly every game,
but they did it disproportionately in high leverage games, high
(10:24):
leverage moments against good teams, and you're potentially going to
see more of that over the next month. The Rockets
are now twenty two to twelve overall, number two seed
in the West, but it's very tightly packed. There are
only about three games up on the teams in the
seven to eight range in the standings which would be
going through the play in tournament. So even though superficially
it looks like the Rockets are in a great spot again,
(10:45):
these games have a lot of meaning because it would
not take a very long skid to send the Rockets
from this top three position they've been in. It feels
like for nearly this entire season to just scrapping to
avoid the play in tournament, So the Rockets need to
take care of business. Hopefully they will starting tie against
the Lakers. But it's more the more the difficult opponents,
the Calves, the Celtics, the Knicks, the Grizzlies, assuming John
(11:08):
Moran comes back, those are the ones that I'm worried
about because Jabari Smith at the five, with his shooting,
the ability to play five out, the ability to switch,
the ability to step in as a weak side rim protector.
That's a very useful hedge and an alternative option to
have in games where all parinchhngon becomes a defensive liability,
(11:31):
and we saw some of that on Friday night that
blow out loss to the Celtics. Now the astrisky would
put on that. Obviously, the Rockets did not have a
Men Thompson as an option against the Celtics on Friday,
starting the second game with the two game league suspension.
They also were going up against a team in the
Celtics that is significantly better than most you will play,
(11:52):
even good teams. The Celtics are defending NBA champions for
a reason, and they have collective length and skill that
they can challenge you, especially when it comes to playing
five out in ways that most NBA teams can't. Most
NBA teams do not have a guy like Chris taps
Zingiz who's seven three seventy four, however tall he is,
that's a reliable three point shooter and can you know,
(12:15):
really challenge you in different ways the way that we
saw Boston do to the Rockets and the way Boston
could do to pretty much anybody when they're at their best.
And so for a lot of teams, they have to
make a choice between playing conventionally or trying to attack
with skill and five out. And that's where if all
(12:38):
Prinshan Goon was particularly a liability on the defensive end
of the court. And some of this isn't with Alp specifically,
it's more just the way the modern NBA goes with
traditional big men. You're seeing more and more even if
teams don't fully commit to five out, most teams, especially
playoff teams, have an option to go a little bit smaller,
(13:01):
more skill, to try and challenge teams that are more
traditional with a low post type big man. And of
course the idea is to potentially, you know, run them
off the floor. And Shoon isn't you know, unique in
his liabilities on that side of the ball. Again, it's
pretty conventional for most NBA big men that are of
(13:24):
the more traditional model these days, they're going to be
challenged in that same way. So this is not about
saying Shing Gooon has a specific problem or a unique problem.
But there are some games that it's worse than others,
And you know, are there little things he can do
defensively to improve, Yes, and I think earlier in the
season he was a little bit better than he's been
the last couple of weeks. But by and large, even
(13:47):
the early season model of all per in Shangoon, there's
still going to be some nights where it can be
a challenge defensively. And it's not about effort, it's not
about focus. It's just simply about body type and being
able to defend in space out to twenty five plus feet.
It's really hard with a traditional big man, and so
you need other options. Obviously, Steven Adams is not that
(14:10):
other option because he's even slower than Shangoon is, and
so that's where the Jabari at the five lineup comes
into play now in terms of what the Rockets can
do with Jabari Smith junior out for the next month
to overcome this limitation. The biggest thing is actually going
to be whether all for in Shininggoon can take a
(14:30):
step forward offensively, because we've talked a lot this season
about Shangoon missing bunnies. The last two years, he was
averaging about fifty five percent shooting from the field. This
year it's forty nine percent. So if other teams are
going to try and attack the rockets with Shangoon on
the defensive end, the biggest thing you can do to
(14:54):
overcome that is to score at a high level on
the other end. In other words, whatever you give up
on defense, you make up that much and perhaps then
some on offense because Shingun is taking advantage of them
playing smaller and guys that can't defend him near the rim.
So if Shin Gun can get back to finishing at
(15:14):
the level he was the last two years and he
was shooting about fifty five percent in the field, that
would go a long way. Also, we heard after the
Celtics game where Alpi had a quick start against Portzingis
in the first six minutes or so, and then the
Celtics started swarming more, which tends to happen when you're
going to more agile lineups, and so if they're sending
a second defender, make quicker decisions, hit the open man.
(15:37):
And some of that comes down to the rockets finding
the right combinations and guys who are respected as shooters
and guys that Shingun can trust as shooters. Certainly that's
part of it. But make quicker decisions. We saw against
the Celtics he was a little tentative. There were possessions
where he took way too long to get going to
hit the open guy, and next thing you know, the
shot clock is running out. If they're sending help, if
(15:58):
they're swarming because the opponent is a little bit smaller
and trying to overcome a lack of size against Shangoon
on the inside, make quicker decisions. Hit the shooter, hit
the cutter, whoever it may be. And again it's not
all on Changoon. Some of it can be who's out
there to shoot? Do the guys who need to be cutting,
are they cutting at the right time? Do they know
what they're doing? Again, it's not to put it all
on Shangoon. I'm just saying this is how you attack.
(16:21):
The idea is that you need to get offensively more
than what you're giving up defensively if you're going against
a team that's trying to play five out and challenge
you with speed and floor spacing when you're playing all
for in Shingoon. Bottom line, the biggest way to address
that concern without having the Jabbari at the five insurance
(16:44):
policy would be for Shinggoon to simply get better on
the offensive end of the court. It's possible because again
he shot fifty five percent the last two years. This
year he's at below fifty, so he can get better.
It's just my or of him actually doing it, and
now would be better time than ever because without Jabbari,
(17:05):
the Rocket's going to have to trust Shongoon a little
bit more. They don't have the insurance policies that they've
had in the past, so they have no choice but
to sink or swim with alp to some degree, and
hopefully they're able to swim. We'll find out starting tonight
against the Lakers. In the scenarios where they sink, so
to speak, it's going to be more difficult. I do
(17:25):
think that even though a men is six ft seven
compared to six ' ten for Jabari, we know his wingspan,
we know his hops. I think you can play in
a lot of these matchups a men at the five.
We saw it at times late last season where especially
in the offensive in the court, he was sort of
(17:45):
acting as a lob threat type center anyway and getting
tasked with, you know, depending on the physical stature the
defensive assignment of the big man as well, because obviously
Jabari is not the thickest guy to begin with. So
in some settings you can try and a men at
the five lineup in much the same way you played
(18:06):
Jabari at the five before, with the idea being if
Shangoon just isn't working defensively, he's giving up too much
and his offense isn't making up what you're giving up,
then you've got to go for more athleticism. Yes, you
can use a men in lineups where you previously use Jabari. However,
that's where the question becomes, who's going to replace a
(18:28):
men in those lineups or where a men previously was
at the three or at the four, And that's where
it gets very difficult, because the Jabari at the five
lineups were used disproportionately in high leverage moments. Especially in
the second half of games that were really impactful against
good teams. So who's going to replace the role that
(18:51):
previously belonged to a men defending at the forward spots
if you're instead using a men at the five, And
because it's super high leverage moments typically against good teams,
I find it tough to expect much from Shayse shun
Tate or Jeff Green someone like that. They can fill in,
(19:12):
you know, I mentioned earlier asking them to go against backups,
and they can do fine. Yeah, but the upside is limited.
And so if we're talking to potentially a closing lineup,
because you get to the fourth quarter and you just
can't get a stop with Shongoon on the floor, and
so you need a little bit more agility. I don't
think you want to try and close with Chase shun
(19:32):
Tate or Jeff Green. You're just not gonna have enough
firepower in most cases against good teams. Maybe if you
have a little bit of a lead going in, you
can consider it. But if it's you know, truly a
fifty to fifty type game or you're trying to come
from behind, I don't think it'll work. And so in
that scenario, it's not impossible, but I think the two
guys who have to look at are Cam Whitmore and
Tari Eason. With tarr Eason obviously comes back to his
(19:55):
leg just it's a question of can he play. Is
he physically cleared, And for the last three weeks he
has played in December fourteenth, he hasn't been so TI
would definitely solve this problem, but until he plays, as
mentioned earlier, I'm gonna assume that he's not. So with
the way the roster is currently configured, I think Kim
Whitmore is the guy who Imo Udoka is gonna have
(20:16):
no choice but to trust a little bit more in
those types of settings. And it's not gonna be easy.
There's gonna be games like you know, the one against
the MAVs where Kim Wore basically won it eighteen points
in his first seventeen minutes, shot seven of nine, And
then there's gonna be games like the next one against
Boston where he shot I think three of seventeen and
basically shot the Rockets out of the game. It felt
(20:38):
like Kim Whitmore's game. You can see the talent, but
it's very volatile. There's a lot of peaks and valleys,
but there are the peaks, and so I think leaning
on that a little bit more, he does have the
athleticism the length to overcome not having a traditional center.
So if you're running a front line of say Amen
and Kim along with Dylan Brooks front and Fleet and
(21:00):
Jalen Green, will you be undersized, Sure, but between the
elite athleticism of a men Cam and Jalen Green, you
can overcome a little bit of that lack of traditional
height and length. I think em is going to have
no choice if you get to a setting where, let's
say you give Shangoon a chance and it's just not
working out, it's really ugly. I think you're gonna have
(21:21):
no choice but to trust Cam because he's the only
guy with the upside that when he's right can potentially
be a closing piece for you against a good team.
And he's also a lot more athletic and taller than
Jay Shuan Tate, so it helps to mitigate the height
and length deficiency. So that's what I would say. I
think Option A is just Shiningoon taking a step forward offensively,
(21:44):
and whatever the issues are on defense, you offset them
and then some by Shangoon making them pay on the
other end of the floor, and in some situations, look,
I think if Shinoon can just get going offensively and
have a couple of easy buckets against smaller opponents, might
not even be tested for all that long of a
period with these five out lineups, because there's a psychology
(22:06):
to it. If the opposing coach sees his smaller team
getting bullied by Shingoon or the Rockets getting hot from
three because they're having to send a second a help defender,
then they may play more traditionally because they'll back out
all the lineups that would otherwise prompt a Jabari at
the five small balls. So it may not be just
a constant test of well can Shingoon offensively make up
(22:28):
for what he cost you on the defensive end. No,
it could be that if he gets going offensively, then
after two or three possessions of that, the other coach
called the time out and says, you know what, this
isn't going well. I don't like how this is trending,
so I'm going to play more conventionally, and then not
having Jabbari at least Jabari at the five, I should say,
(22:50):
becomes less important because the other team is less likely
to challenge you in ways that would necessitate that. So
that's Plan A. But Plan B I think I the
Ilyitari comes back knock on Wood. But if not, I
think Kim wit Wore is the guy to watch. One
last variable before I close out this little mini pod,
(23:11):
watch Jalen Green over the next few games. I'm curious
to see what happens with more of a simplified structure
for him that has more athleticism for starters. Since Thanksgiving Eve,
his last fifteen games, I just posted the numbers to Twitter.
He's averaging over twenty one points per game, shooting splits
of forty five percent overall, thirty four percent from three
eighty seven percent on free throws, true shooting percentage fifty seven.
(23:35):
Not star numbers by any means, but not huge liability
numbers either. You can work with that as a starter,
especially if he's improved defensively, and I think we were
all impressed by what he did on that end against
the Celtics and really, you know, embracing the challenge at
times going up against Jason Tatum one on one. So
if Jalen Green is competing defensively, and he's shooting at
(23:56):
least capably offensively with you know, say what you will,
but averaging twenty one points per game as the leading
scorer on a Rockets team that is great defensively but
challenge at times offensively, There's something there. It might not
be a star, but over the past five to six
weeks he's been at least competent as a starter, and
that's a good baseline. Well, one thing we know about
(24:17):
Jalen Green A he's a rhythm player. When he gets
more touches, he seems to benefit when he gets more confident,
and B he seems to play better when there's more pace,
when there's more athleticism. Well, Amen Thompson is a better
athlete than Jabari Smith Junior, and I think with Jabari out,
you're also going to have more minutes for Cam Whitmore.
(24:37):
We've talked in the past about how the starting lineup
it can be difficult on Jalen at times because the
other four guys he's grouped with, Fred Dylan, Jabari and
Shaangou none of them are really top shelf athletes that
threaten the rim on a consistent basis, So it's easier
for defenses to load up against Jalen and protect against
(24:57):
his ability to get into the paint and attack the rim.
It's going to be more difficult when now he's out
there with him and Thompson, and he's gonna be playing
with cam wickmore a little bit more as well, and
there could be minutes where Jalen, the Men, and Kim
are all playing at the same time, especially if you
have to lean into these A men at the five
lineups because you don't have JABBORI can that give you
a better version of Jalen Green. It's not that Jabari
(25:20):
was a high usage guy offensively, but he was someone
that at times you would run offense through. You would
get him some mid post touches. He would shoot from three.
A men is not nearly the shooter, so you don't
typically run as much offense through him. He functions a
lot more off ball, so I think that may also
(25:41):
lead to Jalen having the ball in his hands a
little bit more. Perhaps that helps him get into rhythm.
So between being more athletic and between Jalen having more
touches in general and that potentially helping his rhythm, maybe
you get a slightly better version of Jalen Green as
a result of these lineup in rotation changes. Not guaranteeing it,
(26:04):
I'm just saying it's something to watch because he has
been trending upwards, not like March, nothing crazy, but he
has generally been trending upwards over the past five six weeks,
the last fifteen games or so, and now you're going
to be putting him in lineups that, on paper should
benefit him. And Jalen's actually said this in the past
that he wants to play with more pace, with more athletes.
He thinks that benefits him. Well, I think he's going
(26:24):
to get more opportunities over the next few weeks. And
so maybe the Rockets are hurt defensively. I think certainly
in terms of the options for ima Udoka they will
be without Jabari, but we know that offense has been
obviously the issue, especially against good teams for the Rockets,
maybe this helps unlock a better version of Jalen Green
on that end, and if that's the case, perhaps that
(26:46):
helps you gain offensively some of what you lose defensively. Again,
not trying to sunshine pump too much. Jabari is a
very good player, and I think someone who's steady, not flashy,
but just does a lot of the little things. You
don't necessarily appreciate it until it's gone, and so, you know,
not trying to mitigate his loss by any means, it
(27:09):
is going to be felt. However, if if the Rockets
are able to avoid any further injuries, knock on wood.
I do think there's enough on this team right now
when you consider not just the ability to slide him
in Thompson into the starting lineup and scale up his minutes,
but also guys near the end of your bench like
Kim went Moore, like Jay Sharon Tate, like Aaron Holliday,
(27:32):
to where you shouldn't fall off a cliff, and there
are some areas that you might even be a little
bit better. There's also going to be somewhere you're going
to be worse, but there are going to be some
if you can stay healthy that I think you might
even be a little bit better. And so knock on wood,
assuming there are no further injuries. That's one area where
I think losing Jabari really hurts you. It's that for
(27:54):
as long as he's down, you're one more injury away
from being really in a pickle because you're going to
lean heavily on your depth just to overcome the limitations
as is, without Jabari Atari, anyone else gets hurt. Boy,
it's going to be really, really hard, and at that
point you might have to look outside of the organization.
Trey Dublin coming up for reinforcements, but as currently constructed,
(28:15):
you'll miss him. It will be a hit, but I
don't think it necessarily has to be a devastating hit.
We'll see how things look starting tonight against the Lakers. Anyway,
that'll do it for this mini episode, if you will.
We'll be back later in the week with a full show.
Just wanted to give some initial reaction to the Jabari
Smith injury news and what some of the key storylines
are as we make our way through the next few
weeks without Jabaris Smith, Junr have a good one. We'll
(28:37):
talk soon. Go Rockets.
Cheers, Rockets fans, Welcome to The Logger Line, an exclusive
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Welcome aboard, Hey guys. Benjubo's here, editor of USA Today's
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flagship radio station of the Rockets, doing a special mini
cast episode of The Logger Line, served to you as always,
(00:50):
Critici a clutch to the logger of Carbuck Brewing. Reacting
to this weekend's news of Ja Boycewood Junior being lost
for at least a month with the fracture in its
laft non shooting hand, Polo and I published our full
episode on Friday morning, and as fate would have it,
within a few hours there was breaking news that sort
of changed the narrative, at least for the time being,
(01:12):
of what the Rockets look like over the next few weeks.
On the floor, Jabari had started a power forward every
game this year. Not the flashiest guy, but very solid,
averaging about twelve point seven rebounds per game, solid shooting
from three point range, reliable mid range threat, very versatile, defensively,
spaces the floor, can defend so many positions, had gotten
(01:35):
a lot better as a week side rim protector. So
even if he's not someone you immediately think of when
it comes to the standout players on this team, I
think all Parin Shrangou and a Men Thompson to some
extent Jalen Green would be those guys you will definitely
miss Jabari Smith Junior. So I want to do an
episode of reacting to It'll be a short one, but
(01:58):
just reacting to the news and talking about what to
watch for over the coming games and weeks because it
is a difficult stretch of the schedule. So Jabari going
out in a month where it's pretty difficult for you
to begin with, and you also don't have Tary easton
for the foreseeable future due to ongoing issues with his
lower left leg. Yeah, there's a lot to watch for
(02:19):
as the Rockets get back on the court tonight against
the LA Lakers with a Men Thompson starting in place
of Jabari Smith at power forward. So first things first,
let's talk about the injury and why there is a
small soilber lining in that it's a fracture to his
non shooting hand, so unlike the Tari Easton situation, and
(02:39):
unlike any issues related to ligaments or lower body parts,
this is something that when Jabari is cleared, he should
be all systems go from the outset. There have been
other examples of breaking this same bone I believe fourth
metacarpal non shooting hand. I looked up a few years
ago Gordon Hayward had the same injury to his left
(03:02):
non shooting hand had surgery to correct it, which the
Rockets do believe that Jabari will need, and Hayward was
back in exactly one month and playing starters minutes immediately,
So Jabari will be able to stay in shape during
this I guess time off because obviously it's not an
issue with his legs, so there shouldn't be any conditioning issues.
(03:24):
It's his non shooting hand, so pretty much as soon
as that bone is healed and he's given medical clearance,
he should be able to ramp up very quickly and
get back on the floor. So this is not something
that should stick with him the rest of the season
unless it's just a far worse fracture than the average
one in the NBA, and hopefully that won't be the case.
This was actually suffered at shoot around on Friday, so
(03:46):
I doubt the injury was all that severe because you
typically don't see players going all out in a shoot
around setting. Not unprecedented, but generally speaking, it's a risk
because obviously it's a context where this stuff happens. The
Rockets have been fairly lucky this year with injuries that
seems to be turning around in recent weeks, and now
they'll have to lean on their depth a little bit
(04:07):
to overcome it. But I don't think that given the
setting and what we know about this injury at taking
place in shoot around, that it's likely to be a
significantly worse than usual fracture, and so knock on wood.
Assuming that's the case, I think give it four to
six weeks worst case. If he needs it, you can
(04:28):
sort of buy him an extra week with the All
Star break in mid February. I think by the end
of February he should be all systems go like he
never left. If anything, maybe he'll be a little bit
better because you're letting him have a break in the
middle of the regular season to recharge in a way
that a lot of younger players need as they're getting
used to the eighty two game grind. Now, as far
(04:51):
as what it means for the Rockets on the floor,
I think in a lot of games it might not
be a huge deal because the Rockets are a deep team.
We know the stay ready crew. Danielle Lerner, new beat
writer for The Chronicle, had a really good story about
them this weekend, And so beyond the rotation guys, you
look at the ten through fourteen spots on the bench,
(05:13):
where you've got guys like Kim whitmore like Jase shun
Tate like Aaron Holliday. The Rockets are more able, at
least in the short term, to absorb these injuries than
most other teams, and so especially against lesser teams, you
can plug and play some of those guys and you
probably won't notice a difference, especially because Amen Thompson as
(05:35):
a starter has been tremendous this year. You look at
his numbers in the five games that he started to date,
Rockets are four and one. The only loss was that
improbable one to the Minnesota Timberwolves in which they looked
really good in that game. But a Men as a
starter is basically averaging seventeen points ten boards per game.
His true shooting percentage is almost sixty four. We know
how virtually is defensively, how insanely athletic, He's a lob threat.
(05:59):
He does so many things that no disrespect to Jabari,
but no one else on this roster can do, including Jabari.
So I think there's a case to be made that
a Men Thompson starting a power forward might actually make
you a better team relative to Jabari Smith Junior, at
least with the starting lineup. Now, it's not that simple
because you do have to replace the minutes that you're
(06:21):
losing a men from off the bench with those second units.
But number one, the rockets, you know they were leaving
a little bit of meat on the bone to begin with.
Playing only twenty eight minutes per game for a Men Thompson,
you can easily stretch that to thirty six thirty eight,
so you can replace Jabari with a Men. I know
there could be some floor spacing concerns because both the
(06:43):
Men and Shangoon aren't centers, so it won't be a
total apples to apples comparison. To when a men start
at power forward after Shangoon's injury last season next to
Jabari Smith Junior. No, now you'll be starting two non
shooters in a men in Shingoon. But I think the
way a men moves off the ball, the value he
provides as a lob threat, the synergies with a men
(07:04):
in Shiningoon, which we've seen at times these last two seasons,
I think they'll find a way to make it work.
And when you look at the overall package as a
basketball player, No, a man is not as capable of
a shooter as Jabari. He's also not as tall or
as thick. But when you look at the versatile defense,
the athleticism, the IQ, the handle, all the things that
(07:25):
he can bring, I don't think it's a stretch to
say that Amen Thompson is a better basketball player than Jabari.
And that's not a shy at Jabari. That's more a
compliment to a men and just how good he is.
And even if you lose him from the bench units, again,
you can mitigate some of that by simply stretching his
minutes a men that is from twenty eight to somewhere
in the thirty six to thirty eight range, and so
(07:48):
that'll probably give you just about twenty minutes that you
have to fill for those second units that were otherwise
going to a MEN. I think in the short term
the obvious candidates to replace that will be Cam Whitmore
and Jashon Tate. And while there will be a hit
going from a Men to Cam or Tate in those minutes,
(08:09):
at the same time, because it's largely against backups, it
won't be as much as you might think initially. Obviously
we hope that Tari Easton will be able to fill
some of those Moving forward, in that scenario, it might
not feel any impact at all. But Tari's missed three
weeks tonight I assume will be his ninth straight absence.
He's listed as doubtful, so I'll believe Tari's back when
(08:32):
I see it. I think more reasonably you can expect
in the short term Cam whit More in Jashon Tate
to be the forward options to fill some of those
benchminutes then had otherwise gone to a Men. And while
there will be a little bit of a hit, I
don't think it will be massive against backups, and I
think with the upgrade of you know, extending Amen's minutes
and getting a men at power forward instead of Jabari. Overall,
(08:54):
I don't think it's going to be a huge impact
against most teams. That's the silver life. If you can
stay healthy, then a lineup of Fredentlee, Jalen Green, Dylan
Brooks and Men Thompson and all pri and Shongoon should
be just fine. So while you'll definitely miss Jabari in
certain configurations, on the whole, when you consider the depth
(09:17):
the Rockets have and being able to lean on guys
like him Whitmore and Jay Shong Tate that can be
solid NBA players, I think most nights you'll be okay.
I do think, however, there is one particular setting where
you're really going to miss Jabari, and I think you're
especially going to see it against good teams. And that's
what makes the timing of Jabari's injury really problematic, because
(09:38):
you do have a very difficult schedule coming up in
the weeks ahead. You've got two against Cleveland. I think
you've got three against Memphis this month. You've also got
the Knicks coming up. You've got the Celtics again in Boston.
So I believe the rest of the way The Rockets
have the second most difficult schedule in the NBA, and
a lot of those come over the next month that
we expect Jabari to be out, and in those settings,
(10:03):
not having the option of turning to a lineup with
Jabari Smith Junior at the five is going to be
potentially problematic. I think that was a very valuable insurance
policy for ime Udoka. He didn't do it nearly every game,
but they did it disproportionately in high leverage games, high
(10:24):
leverage moments against good teams, and you're potentially going to
see more of that over the next month. The Rockets
are now twenty two to twelve overall, number two seed
in the West, but it's very tightly packed. There are
only about three games up on the teams in the
seven to eight range in the standings which would be
going through the play in tournament. So even though superficially
it looks like the Rockets are in a great spot again,
(10:45):
these games have a lot of meaning because it would
not take a very long skid to send the Rockets
from this top three position they've been in. It feels
like for nearly this entire season to just scrapping to
avoid the play in tournament, So the Rockets need to
take care of business. Hopefully they will starting tie against
the Lakers. But it's more the more the difficult opponents,
the Calves, the Celtics, the Knicks, the Grizzlies, assuming John
(11:08):
Moran comes back, those are the ones that I'm worried
about because Jabari Smith at the five, with his shooting,
the ability to play five out, the ability to switch,
the ability to step in as a weak side rim protector.
That's a very useful hedge and an alternative option to
have in games where all parinchhngon becomes a defensive liability,
(11:31):
and we saw some of that on Friday night that
blow out loss to the Celtics. Now the astrisky would
put on that. Obviously, the Rockets did not have a
Men Thompson as an option against the Celtics on Friday,
starting the second game with the two game league suspension.
They also were going up against a team in the
Celtics that is significantly better than most you will play,
(11:52):
even good teams. The Celtics are defending NBA champions for
a reason, and they have collective length and skill that
they can challenge you, especially when it comes to playing
five out in ways that most NBA teams can't. Most
NBA teams do not have a guy like Chris taps
Zingiz who's seven three seventy four, however tall he is,
that's a reliable three point shooter and can you know,
(12:15):
really challenge you in different ways the way that we
saw Boston do to the Rockets and the way Boston
could do to pretty much anybody when they're at their best.
And so for a lot of teams, they have to
make a choice between playing conventionally or trying to attack
with skill and five out. And that's where if all
(12:38):
Prinshan Goon was particularly a liability on the defensive end
of the court. And some of this isn't with Alp specifically,
it's more just the way the modern NBA goes with
traditional big men. You're seeing more and more even if
teams don't fully commit to five out, most teams, especially
playoff teams, have an option to go a little bit smaller,
(13:01):
more skill, to try and challenge teams that are more
traditional with a low post type big man. And of
course the idea is to potentially, you know, run them
off the floor. And Shoon isn't you know, unique in
his liabilities on that side of the ball. Again, it's
pretty conventional for most NBA big men that are of
(13:24):
the more traditional model these days, they're going to be
challenged in that same way. So this is not about
saying Shing Gooon has a specific problem or a unique problem.
But there are some games that it's worse than others,
And you know, are there little things he can do
defensively to improve, Yes, and I think earlier in the
season he was a little bit better than he's been
the last couple of weeks. But by and large, even
(13:47):
the early season model of all per in Shangoon, there's
still going to be some nights where it can be
a challenge defensively. And it's not about effort, it's not
about focus. It's just simply about body type and being
able to defend in space out to twenty five plus feet.
It's really hard with a traditional big man, and so
you need other options. Obviously, Steven Adams is not that
(14:10):
other option because he's even slower than Shangoon is, and
so that's where the Jabari at the five lineup comes
into play now in terms of what the Rockets can
do with Jabari Smith junior out for the next month
to overcome this limitation. The biggest thing is actually going
to be whether all for in Shininggoon can take a
(14:30):
step forward offensively, because we've talked a lot this season
about Shangoon missing bunnies. The last two years, he was
averaging about fifty five percent shooting from the field. This
year it's forty nine percent. So if other teams are
going to try and attack the rockets with Shangoon on
the defensive end, the biggest thing you can do to
(14:54):
overcome that is to score at a high level on
the other end. In other words, whatever you give up
on defense, you make up that much and perhaps then
some on offense because Shingun is taking advantage of them
playing smaller and guys that can't defend him near the rim.
So if Shin Gun can get back to finishing at
(15:14):
the level he was the last two years and he
was shooting about fifty five percent in the field, that
would go a long way. Also, we heard after the
Celtics game where Alpi had a quick start against Portzingis
in the first six minutes or so, and then the
Celtics started swarming more, which tends to happen when you're
going to more agile lineups, and so if they're sending
a second defender, make quicker decisions, hit the open man.
(15:37):
And some of that comes down to the rockets finding
the right combinations and guys who are respected as shooters
and guys that Shingun can trust as shooters. Certainly that's
part of it. But make quicker decisions. We saw against
the Celtics he was a little tentative. There were possessions
where he took way too long to get going to
hit the open guy, and next thing you know, the
shot clock is running out. If they're sending help, if
(15:58):
they're swarming because the opponent is a little bit smaller
and trying to overcome a lack of size against Shangoon
on the inside, make quicker decisions. Hit the shooter, hit
the cutter, whoever it may be. And again it's not
all on Changoon. Some of it can be who's out
there to shoot? Do the guys who need to be cutting,
are they cutting at the right time? Do they know
what they're doing? Again, it's not to put it all
on Shangoon. I'm just saying this is how you attack.
(16:21):
The idea is that you need to get offensively more
than what you're giving up defensively if you're going against
a team that's trying to play five out and challenge
you with speed and floor spacing when you're playing all
for in Shingoon. Bottom line, the biggest way to address
that concern without having the Jabbari at the five insurance
(16:44):
policy would be for Shinggoon to simply get better on
the offensive end of the court. It's possible because again
he shot fifty five percent the last two years. This
year he's at below fifty, so he can get better.
It's just my or of him actually doing it, and
now would be better time than ever because without Jabbari,
(17:05):
the Rocket's going to have to trust Shongoon a little
bit more. They don't have the insurance policies that they've
had in the past, so they have no choice but
to sink or swim with alp to some degree, and
hopefully they're able to swim. We'll find out starting tonight
against the Lakers. In the scenarios where they sink, so
to speak, it's going to be more difficult. I do
(17:25):
think that even though a men is six ft seven
compared to six ' ten for Jabari, we know his wingspan,
we know his hops. I think you can play in
a lot of these matchups a men at the five.
We saw it at times late last season where especially
in the offensive in the court, he was sort of
(17:45):
acting as a lob threat type center anyway and getting
tasked with, you know, depending on the physical stature the
defensive assignment of the big man as well, because obviously
Jabari is not the thickest guy to begin with. So
in some settings you can try and a men at
the five lineup in much the same way you played
(18:06):
Jabari at the five before, with the idea being if
Shangoon just isn't working defensively, he's giving up too much
and his offense isn't making up what you're giving up,
then you've got to go for more athleticism. Yes, you
can use a men in lineups where you previously use Jabari. However,
that's where the question becomes, who's going to replace a
(18:28):
men in those lineups or where a men previously was
at the three or at the four, And that's where
it gets very difficult, because the Jabari at the five
lineups were used disproportionately in high leverage moments. Especially in
the second half of games that were really impactful against
good teams. So who's going to replace the role that
(18:51):
previously belonged to a men defending at the forward spots
if you're instead using a men at the five, And
because it's super high leverage moments typically against good teams,
I find it tough to expect much from Shayse shun
Tate or Jeff Green someone like that. They can fill in,
(19:12):
you know, I mentioned earlier asking them to go against backups,
and they can do fine. Yeah, but the upside is limited.
And so if we're talking to potentially a closing lineup,
because you get to the fourth quarter and you just
can't get a stop with Shongoon on the floor, and
so you need a little bit more agility. I don't
think you want to try and close with Chase shun
(19:32):
Tate or Jeff Green. You're just not gonna have enough
firepower in most cases against good teams. Maybe if you
have a little bit of a lead going in, you
can consider it. But if it's you know, truly a
fifty to fifty type game or you're trying to come
from behind, I don't think it'll work. And so in
that scenario, it's not impossible, but I think the two
guys who have to look at are Cam Whitmore and
Tari Eason. With tarr Eason obviously comes back to his
(19:55):
leg just it's a question of can he play. Is
he physically cleared, And for the last three weeks he
has played in December fourteenth, he hasn't been so TI
would definitely solve this problem, but until he plays, as
mentioned earlier, I'm gonna assume that he's not. So with
the way the roster is currently configured, I think Kim
Whitmore is the guy who Imo Udoka is gonna have
(20:16):
no choice but to trust a little bit more in
those types of settings. And it's not gonna be easy.
There's gonna be games like you know, the one against
the MAVs where Kim Wore basically won it eighteen points
in his first seventeen minutes, shot seven of nine, And
then there's gonna be games like the next one against
Boston where he shot I think three of seventeen and
basically shot the Rockets out of the game. It felt
(20:38):
like Kim Whitmore's game. You can see the talent, but
it's very volatile. There's a lot of peaks and valleys,
but there are the peaks, and so I think leaning
on that a little bit more, he does have the
athleticism the length to overcome not having a traditional center.
So if you're running a front line of say Amen
and Kim along with Dylan Brooks front and Fleet and
(21:00):
Jalen Green, will you be undersized, Sure, but between the
elite athleticism of a men Cam and Jalen Green, you
can overcome a little bit of that lack of traditional
height and length. I think em is going to have
no choice if you get to a setting where, let's
say you give Shangoon a chance and it's just not
working out, it's really ugly. I think you're gonna have
(21:21):
no choice but to trust Cam because he's the only
guy with the upside that when he's right can potentially
be a closing piece for you against a good team.
And he's also a lot more athletic and taller than
Jay Shuan Tate, so it helps to mitigate the height
and length deficiency. So that's what I would say. I
think Option A is just Shiningoon taking a step forward offensively,
(21:44):
and whatever the issues are on defense, you offset them
and then some by Shangoon making them pay on the
other end of the floor, and in some situations, look,
I think if Shinoon can just get going offensively and
have a couple of easy buckets against smaller opponents, might
not even be tested for all that long of a
period with these five out lineups, because there's a psychology
(22:06):
to it. If the opposing coach sees his smaller team
getting bullied by Shingoon or the Rockets getting hot from
three because they're having to send a second a help defender,
then they may play more traditionally because they'll back out
all the lineups that would otherwise prompt a Jabari at
the five small balls. So it may not be just
a constant test of well can Shingoon offensively make up
(22:28):
for what he cost you on the defensive end. No,
it could be that if he gets going offensively, then
after two or three possessions of that, the other coach
called the time out and says, you know what, this
isn't going well. I don't like how this is trending,
so I'm going to play more conventionally, and then not
having Jabbari at least Jabari at the five, I should say,
(22:50):
becomes less important because the other team is less likely
to challenge you in ways that would necessitate that. So
that's Plan A. But Plan B I think I the
Ilyitari comes back knock on Wood. But if not, I
think Kim wit Wore is the guy to watch. One
last variable before I close out this little mini pod,
(23:11):
watch Jalen Green over the next few games. I'm curious
to see what happens with more of a simplified structure
for him that has more athleticism for starters. Since Thanksgiving Eve,
his last fifteen games, I just posted the numbers to Twitter.
He's averaging over twenty one points per game, shooting splits
of forty five percent overall, thirty four percent from three
eighty seven percent on free throws, true shooting percentage fifty seven.
(23:35):
Not star numbers by any means, but not huge liability
numbers either. You can work with that as a starter,
especially if he's improved defensively, and I think we were
all impressed by what he did on that end against
the Celtics and really, you know, embracing the challenge at
times going up against Jason Tatum one on one. So
if Jalen Green is competing defensively, and he's shooting at
(23:56):
least capably offensively with you know, say what you will,
but averaging twenty one points per game as the leading
scorer on a Rockets team that is great defensively but
challenge at times offensively, There's something there. It might not
be a star, but over the past five to six
weeks he's been at least competent as a starter, and
that's a good baseline. Well, one thing we know about
(24:17):
Jalen Green A he's a rhythm player. When he gets
more touches, he seems to benefit when he gets more confident,
and B he seems to play better when there's more pace,
when there's more athleticism. Well, Amen Thompson is a better
athlete than Jabari Smith Junior, and I think with Jabari out,
you're also going to have more minutes for Cam Whitmore.
(24:37):
We've talked in the past about how the starting lineup
it can be difficult on Jalen at times because the
other four guys he's grouped with, Fred Dylan, Jabari and
Shaangou none of them are really top shelf athletes that
threaten the rim on a consistent basis, So it's easier
for defenses to load up against Jalen and protect against
(24:57):
his ability to get into the paint and attack the rim.
It's going to be more difficult when now he's out
there with him and Thompson, and he's gonna be playing
with cam wickmore a little bit more as well, and
there could be minutes where Jalen, the Men, and Kim
are all playing at the same time, especially if you
have to lean into these A men at the five
lineups because you don't have JABBORI can that give you
a better version of Jalen Green. It's not that Jabari
(25:20):
was a high usage guy offensively, but he was someone
that at times you would run offense through. You would
get him some mid post touches. He would shoot from three.
A men is not nearly the shooter, so you don't
typically run as much offense through him. He functions a
lot more off ball, so I think that may also
(25:41):
lead to Jalen having the ball in his hands a
little bit more. Perhaps that helps him get into rhythm.
So between being more athletic and between Jalen having more
touches in general and that potentially helping his rhythm, maybe
you get a slightly better version of Jalen Green as
a result of these lineup in rotation changes. Not guaranteeing it,
(26:04):
I'm just saying it's something to watch because he has
been trending upwards, not like March, nothing crazy, but he
has generally been trending upwards over the past five six weeks,
the last fifteen games or so, and now you're going
to be putting him in lineups that, on paper should
benefit him. And Jalen's actually said this in the past
that he wants to play with more pace, with more athletes.
He thinks that benefits him. Well, I think he's going
(26:24):
to get more opportunities over the next few weeks. And
so maybe the Rockets are hurt defensively. I think certainly
in terms of the options for ima Udoka they will
be without Jabari, but we know that offense has been
obviously the issue, especially against good teams for the Rockets,
maybe this helps unlock a better version of Jalen Green
on that end, and if that's the case, perhaps that
(26:46):
helps you gain offensively some of what you lose defensively. Again,
not trying to sunshine pump too much. Jabari is a
very good player, and I think someone who's steady, not flashy,
but just does a lot of the little things. You
don't necessarily appreciate it until it's gone, and so, you know,
not trying to mitigate his loss by any means, it
(27:09):
is going to be felt. However, if if the Rockets
are able to avoid any further injuries, knock on wood.
I do think there's enough on this team right now
when you consider not just the ability to slide him
in Thompson into the starting lineup and scale up his minutes,
but also guys near the end of your bench like
Kim went Moore, like Jay Sharon Tate, like Aaron Holliday,
(27:32):
to where you shouldn't fall off a cliff, and there
are some areas that you might even be a little
bit better. There's also going to be somewhere you're going
to be worse, but there are going to be some
if you can stay healthy that I think you might
even be a little bit better. And so knock on wood,
assuming there are no further injuries. That's one area where
I think losing Jabari really hurts you. It's that for
(27:54):
as long as he's down, you're one more injury away
from being really in a pickle because you're going to
lean heavily on your depth just to overcome the limitations
as is, without Jabari Atari, anyone else gets hurt. Boy,
it's going to be really, really hard, and at that
point you might have to look outside of the organization.
Trey Dublin coming up for reinforcements, but as currently constructed,
(28:15):
you'll miss him. It will be a hit, but I
don't think it necessarily has to be a devastating hit.
We'll see how things look starting tonight against the Lakers. Anyway,
that'll do it for this mini episode, if you will.
We'll be back later in the week with a full show.
Just wanted to give some initial reaction to the Jabari
Smith injury news and what some of the key storylines
are as we make our way through the next few
weeks without Jabaris Smith, Junr have a good one. We'll
(28:37):
talk soon. Go Rockets.
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