Ten games left: Keys for Rockets in final playoff push

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Cheers, Rockets fans, Welcome to The Logger Line, an exclusive
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Speaker 2 (00:20):
It is good o Red Nation.

Speaker 1 (00:23):
Get Ready, Ready, get Ready The lagger Line. It starts now.

Speaker 2 (00:30):
Welcome aboard, Welcome back to another new episode of the
Logger Line. Again serve to you courtesy of Clutch City
Lagger of Carbock Brewing. I'm Ben Dubo's your host, editor
of USA Today's Rockets were a contributor to Sports Talk

(00:50):
seven ninety, official flagship radio station of your Houston Rockets.
As always, I'm joined by Polo Alves, or co hostin
producer out of Portugal. You can follow him on Twitter
slash x at Palo Aalves NBA and me on there
at Ben Dubo's so as we chat this Tuesday, March
twenty fifth, It's been a fairly good month for the Rockets,
but one that could be ending on a bit of

(01:11):
a sour note. Rockets are now forty six and twenty
six overall and number two in the West, but the
nine game winning streak is officially no more lost at
home Sunday to the Nuggets, who are now just a
game behind you in the number three slot. So as
fun as it was to win nine straight games, the
one nagging concern that I think all of us had

(01:31):
was that all nine of those opponents had losing records,
and so the question became, what would happen once you
faced a good team again. Well, even without Nicole Jokich
the Nuggets, they still had Jamal Murray, Michael Porter, Junior
hear In, Gordon Christian Brown. I think they certainly still
qualify as good as we saw Sunday, as we saw
a few nights before that when they won at Golden State,

(01:52):
also with that Jokich and in the game where the
Warriors sat Steph Corey, Jerby Butler, Draymond Green all playing.
So we will talk about the Denver game as we
may make our way through today's episode, and we'll also
discuss any changes that the Rockets could make over the
final ten games or so of the season, starting tonight
against Atlanta. By the way, the Hawks have actually won
seven of their last nine and they're right at five

(02:13):
hundred now, and Trey Young can do at least some
of the things that Jamal Murray did, so it should
definitely be a good test as far as how much
of the Denver game was an outlier and how much
of it is a legit concern as we get ready
for postseason basketball in a few weeks. That will be
the first postseason basketball in Houston in six years, by
the way, because twenty twenty was the last playoff appearance
and that was the COVID bubble in Florida, and Rockets

(02:34):
have already clinched at least one home game in the
play in tournament. Hopefully it we'll have an outright playoff
series and one in which Houston has home court advantage.
They would if the season ended today, but it's close
enough that there's definitely a lot of volatility still out there.
How were you you were still in your initial stages
of Rockets fandom when once that twenty nineteen series was happening, Right.

Speaker 3 (02:56):
The one where we lost out of the one in
the FLOORA.

Speaker 2 (03:00):
I'm talking about the Warrior series. That was the last. Yeah,
that was the last home series or home game for
the Rockets in the playoffs in Houston. That game six.
The Warriors didn't have KD. Right, that's what I'm saying, like,
you have not had postseason basketball in Houston in six years,
so it's been a five year gap since the playoffs

(03:20):
and six since you actually had legit playoff basketball on
your home floor of Toriota.

Speaker 3 (03:27):
Center, and it was like so usually people complained about
the atmosphere at the other center because of you know,
obviously all the reasons that we've talked about before, but
at least for a memory, it's pretty lit once the
actual playoffs come because people actually the lower block shows
up to the game. So I do I do miss that.
But yeah, six years Yeah, the bubble was the bubble

(03:50):
really five years ago?

Speaker 2 (03:52):
Yeah, I know, time flies. Yeah, there was all these
you know, where were you flashbacks earlier this month when,
of course March eleventh of twenty twenty was the day
the NBA shut down and it felt like the world
shut down along with it. But yeah, home crowds that
Toyota Center in the playoffs are really good. I think
what people forget in you know, Houston's the city of transplants.
We don't need to go into this because we talked

(04:13):
about it before, but the tickets are sold. It's just
during the regular season people are there, but they're in
the lounges. There's clients that may become for part of
a game, there's traffic issues. But in the playoffs when
the games are really meaningful, and you know, there are
a few times in regular season the tickets will go unused.
When they're not going to go unused in the playoffs

(04:34):
because they're just that damn valuable that they can't go themselves.
They'll sell them one way or another. Those seats will
be filled, and it's an environment that's very different than
the regular season when and you know, let's give credit
to the fan base, most of the seats are filled.
It's just the ones you notice on TV, the club seats.
Those are the ones that disproportionately have the people that

(04:56):
are either late arriving or they're in a lounge. They're
there for things besides basketball and.

Speaker 3 (05:02):
My crazy listen, I've only been to one, you know,
basketball arena, right, and then all my experiences from obviously
here and typically you know, soccer's played in an outdoor arena,
it's typically bigger, but I don't know, Toyota Center felt
like a really big arena, like you're not, I don't know,
I watch like MAVs games or I watch, okay see games,

(05:24):
and I don't know, maybe it's the camera angles. It
feels like the kind of like obviously the lower bowl
and those you know close the ones that two up
on TV, those seats are obviously at the same distance,
but I mean, like the outer like seats, it feels
like they're closer. I don't know if unless that's just

(05:45):
neither like Yoda, summer still's bigger.

Speaker 2 (05:47):
It might be more spread out horizontally, so random, yeah,
that's what I mean. Yeah. So, and this is like
ten years ago, but I remember my mother in law.
We took her to a game, and this was around
twenty fifteen, and you know, she was about seventy at
the time, so you know, she still got around, but

(06:09):
as with anyone at seventy, there's sub limitations. And so
we had seats in San Antonio, and she tripped going
up the stairs because it was so steep, and so
what that told me And I noticed it too, you know,
I felt it. It's just you know, I was thirtieth time,
so obviously I didn't fall. But compared to Houston, I
think it might be more spread out horizontally, whereas in

(06:29):
San Antonio she fell because it's that, you know, just
more steep of an incline, and so you know, it
just looks on TV like people are more on top
of you, if.

Speaker 3 (06:38):
You will, Yeah, that's what me. And so because of that,
the feelings more more spacious, right, and they're like not
as on top of it. And so I guess that
makes sense as to why or that contributes us to
why the game sometimes feel like the kind the atmosphere
is not there as much as you because typically the
two spots that really strike me as obviously the Western

(07:00):
Conference because that's most of the games that we want.
The ones that strain me is like these crowds are
like really getting into it and it feels like a
true home cart Adreadit is from the ones that I
can get from memory is is Dallas and UH and
the Okay c But I don't know if those good listen.
I'm just going off on the loan.

Speaker 2 (07:20):
Markets especially you know, you can throw Utah and Portland
in there in yours that their competitive have an advantage
because it tends to be more local. With Houston, a
lot of the high dollar seats are oil and gas,
which tends to be very international and so a lot
of the people, you know, they bring clients that go
for the novelty factor and they want to see a

(07:41):
little bit of game, but they'll also go and talk business,
and they'll sit in the Lexus lounge and take the
free food and the well, the drinks aren't free, but
they're nice drinks. And it's just a non it's not
an entirely basketball experience. And in the city like Houston,
and you don't want to sell the tickets for way
cheaper because you need to competitive from a revenue standpoint

(08:01):
to have a professional basketball team at the highest level.
I think some of it's just the Houston market at
least in the regular season it's tough. But I do
think that this playoff run, and hopefully it goes more
than just a game or two as far as home
playoff Gays, will remind people that the fan base itself
is actually very good and many of the things that
people complain about the regular season, it's not really true

(08:23):
in the playoffs. And if you go back and look
at the twenty eighteen Game seven, it was incredible. Now,
I know we had the over twenty seven, Scott Foster
all that stuff, but if you go back and actually
watch people were standing from the outset. It was deafening.
It was one of the best crowds I've ever seen,
right up there with twenty seventeen guest Game seven Astro
Yankees that game in Rockets Warriors Game seven to twenty eighteen,

(08:44):
or the two best Houston sports crowds I've ever seen.
It was an incredible environment, and I think part of
the reason people were harping on it so much right
now in a bad way is that because we haven't
had any playoff games in six years, all we have
to look at are these regular season games. I think
once you get to the playoffs, and we saw this
a little bit against the Warriors in December in the

(09:06):
NBA Cup quarterfinal game, which was one of the best
crowds in a long time. I think it will remind
people that while not nothing, some of these problems are
simply products of the regular season environment. And as the
Rockets get in more postseason games, the regular season will
no longer be one hundred percent of the sample. In fact,
it we'll feel like a lot lower portion of the
sample because we're focused on the playoffs much more. Anyway,

(09:29):
hopefully we have that to look forward to. I think
at this point at least a play in game is guaranteed.
Theyve mathematically clinched a play in spot, and realistically they've
clinched a top eight spot, because the nine seed right
now is the Kings with thirty five losses, maybe thirty
six by the time this episode goes live on Tuesday morning.
Because yeah, that's a ten game lead, nine or ten

(09:51):
relative to the twenty six losses the Rockets currently have
with ten to play. That's not getting overcome. That's just ridiculous.
So they've clenched definitely a top eight seed, and they
should have a top six seed, but still a little
bit of work to do on that front. So let's
do a reset here, Nuggets forty five and twenty seven
at number three. And so one reason why that game

(10:12):
Sunday was especially painful is that had you won that game,
the Rockets would have been up three games on Denver
plus the tiebreaker. So basically a four game lead instead
is just one game, and the fate of the tiebreaker
is going to come down to the third and final
game between the Nuggets and Rockets, which will take place
on Sunday, the thirteenth of April, literally the final day

(10:33):
of the season. So while certainly still in a good
spot overall, definitely a missed opportunity to create some separation.
And because of that, there's a lot at stake over
the final ten games. And to look ahead, you've got
the Hawks, the Jazz, the Suns, the Lakers, the Jazz,
the Thunder, the Warriors, the Clippers, the Lakers, the Nuggets,

(10:54):
six on the road. Now perhaps some of those teams.
By the way, Paolo interject to peel back the curtain.
We're recording this on Monday night. Cam Smith just tripled
in his first effor at bat at Mett May Park
or now Tyking.

Speaker 3 (11:09):
But sorry, but it seems the sugar Land Space Couy scouts.

Speaker 4 (11:12):
So come on, triple A pitching. It's still way better
than he went against last year. That's fair, that's fair.
I was more impressed. I saw I saw someone. Obviously,
I haven't watched the games. There's enough MLV games during
the season.

Speaker 3 (11:25):
And I don't want I don't want spring training. But
I saw it. There was like an actual, like starting Tolliver,
like major league pitcher that he got a homer off of,
or he had the good game off of, So I
was more impressed by that. I mean, still nice, always
nice to have a triple and I'm really excited to
actually get to watch him because it's you know, it's
a little bit of what we felt like with the Rockets,

(11:46):
where you know, routines or young prolums. Yeah, but yeah,
still it's still impress of Who's do I recognize the
name of the guy who's pitching against for for the
Triple A team?

Speaker 2 (11:57):
Who is it? I see the name is Brown. I
don't think I know it. I think it's a Triple
A gap still.

Speaker 3 (12:03):
All right, So but it's no like I guess, I
guess what I meant was like Ari Getty was like
Triple A at some point, and he would Yeah, I don't.

Speaker 2 (12:10):
Think it's somewhat, but it's a capable player, especially if
they're letting them pitch against the Astros. Typically you want
to let capable players throw against your major league team
because you know, the season starts in a couple of days,
so the whole point is to get them reps against
high level pitching. So, you know, I don't know Jacob Brown.
I believe that's his name that well, but I would
think he's competent and at a bare minimum, Triple A

(12:31):
is higher that he played against uh in the Cubs
when he only played I think five Double A games
mostly below that. I will say, in fairness to Cam
the caliber of pitching that you go up against if
you're on an up rachelon college baseball team like he
was at Florida State got to the College Rule Series,
it's actually pretty high. Like Alex Bregman got to the
majors within the year of being drafted out of LSU,

(12:53):
and this is ten years ago.

Speaker 1 (12:54):
Now.

Speaker 2 (12:54):
We talked about tim flying. So when you're that good
and in college baseball have to be there three years.
When you spend three years in college at the highest level,
I mean, there's still a gap, but it's not it's
not like going from high school, you know what I mean.
Like it's a it's a manageable gap to where while quick,
it's certainly not unprecedented.

Speaker 3 (13:16):
Anyway, I'm all for I'm really happy that the barley
he's getting like Neglar lead sign like right off the bat,
because that makes the team em them more exciting. Like
you we get yeah, we needed someone for the outsfield
and we were or we didn't get on any of
the big the bigger names, though he might didn't like.

Speaker 2 (13:35):
To run Chas McCormick out there after he hit like
one ninety in spring. I mean that would be terrible.
So yeah, I prefer this just because it's gonna be
more exciting. It's something to watch. Anyway, back to the Rockets,
I promise we'll stay on task the remainder of the pod.
So as far as looking at those finals and games again,
Hawks Jazz, Suns, Lakers, Jazz Thunder, Warriors, Clippers, Lakers, Nuggets

(13:57):
six on the road, There's quite a few ways I
could play out, but I'm going to look at it
through a couple of different scenarios. There's the disaster one,
there's a realistic and acceptable one, and then there's a
best case for me, while not unfathomable, it is a
total failure at this point if you don't directly qualify

(14:20):
for the playoffs. Throughout the year, a top six seed
has been the goal, and I think we've now shifted
from where it's the goal to where it should happen
unless you have just a total collapse. And I want
to just explain the math real quickly, so you're at
twenty six losses now, and the closest team to you

(14:41):
in the play and range, that's the seven through ten seeds,
has thirty one. And I'm focused on the lost column
because obviously that's what's in each team's control when the
number of games played may not be equal on a
given day. And in the case of the Clippers, let's
use them as an example, because they're at thirty one losses.
Rockets already have a tie breaker, so there's five game

(15:02):
lead plus the tiebreaker. That's basically a six game edge,
which means that if the Rockets go three and seven
over their last ten, the Clippers need to go nine
and one to pass them, which is pretty unlikely, but
it's even less likely than you would think when you
look at it just through the perspective of two teams,
the Rockets and the Clippers, because with the Rockets at two,

(15:23):
it's not just about getting passed by one team. Even
if hypothetically you go three and seven and then a
team like the Clippers the Timberwolves does something crazy and
goes nine and one or ten and zero, well, okay,
you're still not going to follow the planing range. If
the Grizzlies go five and five, or the Warriors go
six and four, you'd still be ahead of them because
the Rockets have a two game lead over the Grizzlies
plus the tiebreaker, and they're up four against the Warriors.

(15:45):
So the odds are you're probably not going to have
every team in the three through eight range all go
seven and three or better, and some of them, like
nine and one, are better while you go three and seven.
That's just not really especially because the Rockets don't really
seem to have any injury concerns amongst their key players,
whereas a lot of the more veteran laden teams are

(16:08):
going to be in rest in maintenance mode in the
final couple of weeks before the playoffs, and some of
them are already doing that. So, as I see it,
the only way the Rockets don't advance directly to the playoffs,
and as we've said all year long, that's the goal.
Get to the playoffs. Stress test your model, your young
players under the bright lights. You learn more about them,

(16:29):
even if it's negative, Well, you learn and they gain experience,
and so at this point, as long as they don't
do something crazy ridiculous to finish the year like two
and eight one and nine, zero to ten, just a
total collapse. They should be secure at a top six seed,
and again want to stress, not impossible. Crazier things have happened,

(16:50):
and you could note, you know, if you're splitting hard enough,
the only true gimme games left are those two against
the Jazz and Utah did beat you last month. But
I think you know, at least for me, we can
talk about that scenario and cross that bridge. If and
when the Rockets come to it. That's just total failure
when you consider where the Rockets are right now, and
it shouldn't be the expectation. It shouldn't really be talked

(17:11):
about much. If you were to grade that, that's an F.
As far as a realistic expectation, I think a solid
outcome and one grade at least a B if we
were to give it. You know, a scorecard is if
you simply stay in the top four and thus get
home court advantage and at least the first round of
the playoffs. Now, to put some numbers on what that

(17:32):
would require, the closest teams to bumping you would be
the Grizzlies and the Warriors. The team's currently at five
and six, and you basically have a buffer of three
to four games, respectively over those teams. So if you
go four and six, the Grizzlies would need to go
seven to three and the Warriors eight and two to
get past you. It's not impossible, but it does feel

(17:54):
like a stretch, especially when you consider that both of
those teams have got their own injury situations. It's still
to be determined exactly when Steph Curry returns and how
close downdred percent he's gonna be. It obviously sucks because
had you beaten the Nuggets on Sunday at home, you
would have then put Denver in that same bucket in
that they'd be three back in without the tiebreaker. But unfortunately,
what's done is done, and the good news is you

(18:16):
still have Memphis in Golden State in a very difficult position,
not impossible, but very difficult to pass you. And then,
as far as the best case scenario, how would they
get an A or a A plus. I think it's stayed
in the top three and then getting an only home
court advantage in the first round, possibly the second round
as well, and also being on the opposite side of

(18:37):
the bracket from Oklahoma City and thus having a pretty
clear path to the Western Conference Finals. Far from a
given that they would you get there, but it would
be a realistic path. And so as far as that
best case scenario, that's where it gets tricky. The Nuggets
and Lakers are only a game behind you in the
lost column, and you do still have two games left

(18:57):
with the Lakers, both of those in LA. You also
have one game left with the Nuggets, and it's in
Houston where they just beat you even without Nikola Jokich.
I would like to think the Rockets can stay ahead
of one or both of those teams, especially with Jokich
and Lebron still having some injury issues, but again, far
from a giftn So for me, staying ahead of at
least one of those two and getting a top three seed,

(19:19):
ideally a top two, but top three album fine with.
That's my stretch goal, that's my optimistic one. It's certainly doable,
but after Sunday, I'm not gonna set it as the
clear expectation. I'm going top four home court advantage as
my baseline and hope for the best. As far as

(19:39):
anything above that, had you won Sunday, it probably would
have been top three as the baseline. Unfortunately, you've now
brought the four seed into the equation. I don't think
anything beyond that is going to happen. It could happen,
but again it's a stretch. If you go four and six,
the Grizzlies need to go seven in their rad of Warriors,
eight into hope fully knock on wood that does not happen. Also,

(20:05):
one last caveat I want to throw out before handing
thing's over to you, Paolo for your take on this.
I know some folks we'll talk about, you know, hypothetically
tanking for certain matchups, but for me, the standings are
so tight that it's tough to say that as I
see it with much confidence. Until you literally get down
to the final game or two. There might be a
world where you'd prefer to be the three if it

(20:28):
looks like Memphis is the six as opposed to being
the two, if the seven is likely going to be
the Tea Wolves or the Warriors. But I think it's
for starters. It's limited in scope to two versus three,
because I don't think the gap is big enough in
any case to be worth giving away home court advantage
or falling into the same side of the bracket as
the thunder something like that. But then more importantly, based

(20:49):
on how tight the standings are, you can't really predict
it in advance, Like there might be an opportunity that
comes up in the last weekend that you think is
better for you, and so maybe we strategically rest some
guys try to fall back into a better matchup. But
that's something that you wouldn't know until the very end
of the schedule. Based on how tight it is. You
can't assume that you know who's going to be waiting

(21:10):
there at six or seven or five, or whatever the
slot may be. You just take that if it comes
in the final game or two. I think the focus
right now, and I may Udoka said as much Sunday
is just winning and getting the highest possible seed and
home court advantage for as many rounds as you realistically can.
Even after losing Sunday, Rockets still twenty six and eleven

(21:31):
at home this season. And I also think for a
team that doesn't have much in the way of playoff experience,
starting at home could maybe be a big deal as
far as letting them dip their toes in the water
a little bit. And it juts to the intensity of
playoff ball before you get the full fledged chaos of
playing on the road in the playoffs against a locked
inn opponent, a hostile crowd, those types of factors. That

(21:53):
doesn't mean that the Rockets flow you balls to the
wall every game. He may also said that if it's
a potential playoff preview, might you know, be a little
more strategic in terms of the tactics they show and
how aggressive they are with certain coverages or what they
try and do offensively. But you can't, outright, with ten
games left try to tank for a certain matchup when

(22:16):
it's as compact as the standings currently are. You've got
to try and win, and if something happens once you
get down to the final game or two where you think, hey,
it's worth it to dip to the three because we
think our odds are a little bit better against the scene.
It's basically locked into the six. You could have that
conversation then, but it's not one that we should be
having right now, and I don't think it's one that
the Rockets are having anyway. That's my thirty thousand foot

(22:38):
mooove at all. Paolo, How are you looking at these
last ten games? As far as you know what's a disaster,
what's acceptable, and what's the ideal scenario.

Speaker 3 (22:48):
Yeah, I'm going to look at it from a different
perspective in the way in which I phrase how I
do it. Instead of talking about, you know what the
record would fight in the seeding, I'm going to talk
about these are ten games. We're playing ten teams. These
are the records, so we should expect out of out

(23:08):
of those ten games. And the reason I'm going to
do that is because to me, it doesn't really matter
what seed or what specific matchup you get. I think,
regardless of what happens, the Rockets should be fighting to
get the two seeds so they can get home court
advantage on in both of the first two rounds. Besides that,

(23:30):
I think it's just really really unpredictable both right now
and I think it will even be unpredictable by the
time we reach the end of the stretch because if
you are the two, see whoever the seven and the
eight seeds are, they will play each other, and whoever
wins after you've already set your own set up will
be the one that you get to play. So you

(23:51):
can't really predict seven versus eight seed. You're kind of
dependent on what they decide to do on that day. Listen,
if if you're seven r the eight seed, right, my
guess is that whoever the second seed is between seven
and eight, they'll want to win that game because they
won't they will not want to play that thunder. But
it's not really up to you, so you should try
to win every game. I have maintained pretty firmly that

(24:15):
I think the Clippers are by far the best matchup
for us.

Speaker 2 (24:18):
I think we sweeped him, especially in the Campy Harden.
Did you see that on Sunday night?

Speaker 3 (24:22):
I did not what he got hurt.

Speaker 2 (24:24):
Yeah, he got hurt. I don't think it's a serious injury.
But they said he was lumping pretty bad after the game.
I think lou Dort got him with a knee to uh,
a knee to his lower body. I'm not sure exactly
what it was. Unquote was struggling to put his shoes
on and sliding his leg like a pirate. Oh no,
but he said today, I'm all right. I got bomped,

(24:45):
I got kneed in the thigh and I rolled my foot.
But he had a noticeable lamp, so yeah, you may
have a gamp. James Harden as well, he'll play through it.
But whether he's one hundred percent.

Speaker 3 (24:52):
Of the question, yeah, But even him being or not
being one hundred percent, I don't think it's really that
much of an issue because it's a new or gonna
put the man on Kauai or well, actually maybe not
even a man. He might put our Ethan on Kowhi
and we leave a man on Harden because he's a
little bit shiftier on when it comes to crossovers and stuff.
And listen, Zuba can score them shang Gun and shang

(25:16):
Un can cook him. So I think that will be fine.
I think I think Clippers, unless they go off and
should sixty percent shoot sixty percent from three, I don't
think they have much of a chance against us. So
that would be ideal. And I've always obviously also said
that I think we are a really good match up
against the Lakers that they can stop all be If
your plan going in is you're gonna put Jackson Hayes

(25:38):
on them, that's gonna be terrible. If you're gonna triple team,
and you know that's probably what you're gonna need, I
think a double team or even a level team won't
be enough if you're gonna triple team and just gonna
trust stress of the players. And I think defensively, I
think obviously Jackson said Hayes not good enough and they
will have the primter defenders to you know, really cause problems. Uh.

(25:58):
And then offensively we just have It's just such a
luxury to have elite defenders, different types of elite defenders
to throw at. You know, a team that basically only
has two offensive super sharks. I mean Austin Reeds is okay,
but I'm I'm not gonna go too deep into that one.
I think for reason is the type of defender more
valancy one a man Thompson is, you know, the picks

(26:19):
of both, and then you have the one Brooks is
more the more physical one ball guy you can you
have plenty to play around with. I think the Lakers
are a great matchup. But to talk about the last
ten games, I think, listen, I'm gonna be harsh, and
being harsh for me is if you if you go
anything less than five and five, to me, that's pretty
pretty poor. I think if you if you want to

(26:39):
go into the playoffs, an you want to be a
serious team, you have to play against the good teams well,
and you have to at the very least take care
of business. And if you don't take care of its
against the good teams, you you better make up for
it pointing the good teams like you have basically up
to this point during the season, we've beaten You beaten
the Calves, so it's ben the Celtics with then the
Thunder beaten the the Nige obviously, so to me, you

(27:04):
have to go five and five. Obviously, the most likely
wins there are the Hawks, the Jazz, twise, the Suns,
and the Clippers. But you could, you know, have another
different different level from those, I would say to me,
and a plus is you go nine and one, which
I think is possible. I think we are a good

(27:24):
matchup against the Lakers. I think you probably lose to
the Thunder, but you don't know how serious they'll be
taking it at that point. Obviously you want to rest guys,
but you don't want them to get rusty, and so
we play that Thunder at a point where they are
like four games from the end of the season. Usually
if you want test not get rusty, you might, you know,
start resting guys at that point, and then in the
last two games of the season, since you startling serious again,

(27:47):
just get guys really informed by the time you you
actually get to the playoffs. So they might be resting
guys at that point, if they even if but even
if they are, we are at full strength. We have
to see what we are capable of against the thunder.
The Warriors are probably the team that I'm you know,
just riding in a loss just because I don't know

(28:07):
why we can't play against that team. It's whatever. Clippers
obviously gotta beat Lakers again, same same deal as last time.
And then you play the Nugget, which would be a
real test. So I think you get an A plus
if you lose one game you get you get a
well that's really good. What that would be? That would
be a B. I guess the plus if you if

(28:28):
you win seven out of ten and you get and
you get a passing grade, which I guess in the
US is a C plus or a C if you
win five out of ten. Records wise, which you know
everybody likes round numbers, they need four wins to get
to fifty wins. Five wins gets them fifty one, so
seven gets them fifty three and if they win nine,

(28:49):
they get fifty five wins. And to me, fifty five
wins is a like, is a real contender? Right, If
you are a fifty five win team, you are, you know,
a real contender. Obviously you're not a generation all type
of team or or you like not. I guess that
a great team within a decade, which is what you
would be if you want sixty or obviously winning seventies

(29:12):
basically impossible, but in the sixties.

Speaker 4 (29:15):
Uh.

Speaker 3 (29:15):
And so that that's why I said, I think at
the end of the season, whether you make the playoffs
or not, I think you can look at the Winter Roal,
and if you look at the Winter Roll and you
get fifty plus at this point, if you get fifty one,
you are obviously you made a huge upgrade. I think
team will be will respect you if you win. If
you get to fifty five wins. To me, you're like, okay,

(29:36):
at this point you should be respected going into the
next season as much as a team like the Lakers
or the Nuggets or the Grizzlies will be because you've
really graduated into that up But after one you're not
a we just managed to avoid the playing team you
are a well, we are here and we are young.

(29:59):
We don't don't know what we don't know yet. Obviously
in the playoffs we'll play that will play the price
for that. But you know, you are a true contender
in a West that's really tough, and you'll probably be
if you a sixty five wins, would probably be the
three seed in the in the East because that conference
really top heavy. But that's the way I see it.

Speaker 2 (30:20):
Yeah, and I hadn't go ahead, no, no, you can,
I was gonna say, I hadn't thought of it from
the perspective of round numbers, but yeah, it feels appropriate
that fifty is going to be at all likelihood the
cutoff point for being comfortably in the top six or
perhaps having the sweat it, because it's also a symbolic

(30:41):
number that means something in terms of the rebuild your
procedures a franchise. Obviously, fifty five and meet even more,
but if you get to fifty, that means you go
four and six. I think, as stayed earlier, I don't
really argue for sure going to be, you know, in
the playoffs, but I think you're also going to be
in the top four because for the grizz if you
go four and six to a past year, they'd have

(31:02):
to go seven and three, and they've got injury concerns
up and down that roster. Warriors need to go eight
and two. So if you go four and six, not
only are you for sure in the playoffs, I think
you're almost certainly a top four seed and going to
get home court advantage in the first round. And with
that the benefits of you know, having your first couple
of games at home within the friendly confines of Toyota

(31:23):
stener as opposed to if you don't get fifty and
you're at forty nine or worse, a good way to
summon up. That's where the door gets open to some
unfriendly scenarios where it's not unfathomable for you to get
bumped to the five or six. And if you all
of a sudden start stacking losses and you don't have
a playoff berth locked up, crazier things have happened. Then
loss is spiraling at this point of the year, and

(31:46):
other teams seeing an opening and playing hard at you know,
the Rockets not having a lot of experience to drop on.
I don't anticipate that happening, but just saying if if
you start going down as trajectory to where it looks
like forty eight or forty nine is in play, there
are some bad things that could result. As opposed to
if you get to fifty. I feel like that's the
passable level where for the season as a whole, it's

(32:08):
symbolically a win, and then in terms of where you
are in the playoffs, I think it would be very
unlikely for the Rockets at fifty wins not to have
home court advantage and at least one round, especially because
they have that tiebreaker over Memphis for the potential division title.
All right, let's transition our discussion to the games that
we've seen the last few days and what some of

(32:29):
the lessons may be for those final ten days as
we try to extrapolate the implications and what the Rockets
will or won't do over the final three weeks of
the season. So, as far as what we've seen since
our last episode, I'm going to talk more about the
Denver game than Orlando and Miami. Those also happened since

(32:49):
we last had an episode published at the start of
last week. But for me, the Denver game not only
is it more recent, but it's also a better opponent.
Orlando and Miami, those are competent teams, but better. Neither
the Heat nor the Magic has a Jamal Murray. And
so the Denver game, it's more recent, there's more takeaways,
and also it's a loss. We had gotten used to
winning after nine in a row. So you lose a game,

(33:12):
it's your most recent, it's at home, it's high profile,
it had those aforementioned standings implications. For me, that's the
one that stands out a little bit more, especially when
we've talked all month about a lot of the wins
coming because of the weaker schedule. Well, you're going to
be playing much more difficult teams over the final ten games,
and especially if and when you get to the playoffs.
So there's more predictive value from that Denver game. Should

(33:35):
mention that the final ten games, according to Tankeathon Rockets
are have the tenth artist schedule remaining, so they're not
on an easy street anymore. Now. The good news is
that the teams are competing with, especially the Lakers, the Grizzlies,
the Nuggets. They all have schedules in that same range,
and the Lakers actually have a moderately more difficult schedule,

(33:57):
so it's not Murderer's Row either, but the rock are
past the point where they can just expect to fatten
up on teams in the bottom ten of the league.
It's going to be mostly competitive from hearing out the
two games against the tanking Jazz perhaps the exceptions, although
we know what the Jazz did against the Rockets last month.
Hopefully they keep that in mind. Anyway, For me, the

(34:17):
storyline that I'm focused on the most is the defense
coming out of Denver game. It's not to say that
the offense was perfect, obviously it was not, but I
just think a lot of their issues are not in
were more structural. I mean, they did leave a lot
of meat on the bone with regards to the shooting,
but this is who they are. They're dead last and
free throw shooting this year. They're twenty fourth and three

(34:38):
foint shooting. Frederin Flee, who I thought struggle the most.
He's having one of the worst shooting seasons of his career,
and he admits his ankle still as one hundred percent.
He did have the incredible Miami game, but aside from that,
he hasn't shot the ball well at all, and you
pointed out on your Twitter timeline, Hollow, he's had your
career lows in several offensive categories. Not new information. Jalen

(35:02):
missed a bunny in the last minute against the Nuggets
that might have given you a chance to win. But
we all know finishing through contact it's still a work
in progress for him. And he did drop thirty points
on okay efficiency against a good team. Not gonna act
like it was a terrible night. Got to the free
throw lined fourteen times, which is always a big variable
for him. Shongoon had only seventeen points against Andre Jordan.

(35:22):
I guess that's a little disappointing, and obviously the free
throws are what they are, but he also had ten
assists to zero turnovers. It's not like any of that
was crazy bad to me. The offense just kind of
was what it was, and it is what it is.
As far as the season overall, they're right around fifteenth
in the league, which is where they've been pretty much
all season, and quite frankly, you can't really expect to

(35:46):
win a game where you shouldn't when you're down by
nineteen points to a good team with twelve minutes left.
They almost came back, and so it's frustrating that they didn't.
And we can point to, you know, a couple of misshots,
miss free throws here or there, but where they realistically
lost the game was by falling behind nineteen in the
first place. And that's on the defense. They fell behind
by nineteen because they give up ninety six points in

(36:08):
the first three quarters, thirty nine and the third alone,
Jamal Murray dropped almost forty on you. And as far
as why, they'll say in the interviews that and they
did say this post game that they got to play harder,
they got to play more physical, and you know, I
think there's truth in that. With a men Thompson in particular,
I thought it was very clear that he came out
with a purpose on Friday to lock up Tyler Hero

(36:30):
and it just wasn't quite the same on Sunday. And
maybe it's, you know, second game coming off an ankle injury,
so his conditioning isn't all the way back. Maybe it's
just an off night. He's just year two laps and focus.
But he needs to be better and I think he
will be better. And maybe the key is just baiting
Jamal Murray into trash talking him, but hopefully not leading
to the two games suspension from tossing him like a
rag doll. Actually, Paolo should a men Thompson have tossed

(36:54):
Jamal Murray like a rag doll gotten the suspension to
set up the revenge plot in the season finale. In
case that matters, What are your thoughts on that scenario?

Speaker 3 (37:04):
So my thoughts are actually related to that is that
we didn't beat then adits because we didn't get in
a fight with anyone at any point during the game.
That was the chillies. He wish Dylan Brooks had I
think twenty three points or something close to it, and
he shot hits out on three. I mean, he was
the only reliable sod we had that night. But he

(37:25):
did not start a fight. And I know I think
he had five thousand or something like that. That was
like reatly remember foul trouble. Listen, dude, you have one job.
You make your frees, and you start your fights, and
you didn't have the job. So I'll get into the
more in depth stuff with the minuets, but I actually
don't mind if if he needs to get if he

(37:46):
needs to get ejected from the first game of a
playoff series just to make sure that he walk in
for the next four then then I'm going to it.

Speaker 2 (37:55):
And I do think, even though we're obviously kidding, when
they do get in these these scrapes, it shows you
the edge that they're playing with, and it didn't feel
like they had that against the Nuggets. There was a
possession early in the game where Tamal Murray finished through
Tarry Easton's chest. That should never happen. Tari's a pretty
strong guy, and it was just a little thing that

(38:18):
told me that for whatever reason, maybe they were a
little bit happy coming off nine straight wins, but the
intensity just wasn't there. They need to play with an edge,
And while I don't really want to see a Men
Thompson or Dylan Brooks toss Jamal Murray like a rag doll,
I think that's an extreme scenario. I do think I do, okay,
I want to see that. I don't want the consequences

(38:39):
of doing that, with the League likely to probably suspend
him longer because he already had one of those incidents. Anyway,
the more serious takeaway here for me comes down to
what the Rockets can do tactically to bring out the
best version of themselves. Defensively, that's what I'm focused on.
And sure they can all collectively play harder, look in

(39:00):
the mirror, play more physical. There's truth in that, but
there's also things at a high level that they can
do strategically to put the team in a better position
to succeed. And that's what bothers me about this game.
The more I think about it, it felt like to
me they played not to lose rather than playing to win,
and I think the way they wanted to address it.

(39:23):
So the energy wasn't great, as we mentioned, and they
were losing the rebounding battle most of the way, and
the third quarter we actually down by like ten plus
for a while, and I think that's a stunning stat
for a Rocket team that leads the league in rebounding
this season. Now, some of that was probably, you know,
when Jamal Murray is making almost everything, it's tough to
get rebounds when the opponent isn't missing. But obviously there's

(39:45):
more to it than just that. But I think the
adjustment that Ema made and he leaned to it even
more in the second half was the double big lineup
with Shangoud and Stephen Adams and both of them played well.
Alphi with tennysis, no turnover, se points, fourteen rebounds, good night.
Even with the free throw issues, Steven was outstanding fourteen
and twelve three blocks twenty three minutes. Individually, they played

(40:09):
really well. But the more I think about the collective,
it makes me a little bit uncomfortable because you can't
just post the stat lines and act like it's representative of,
you know, how the team overall functioned. It's not fantasy basketball.
You're not trying to just optimize numbers. You're trying to
get the best version of each five man unit that
gives you the best chance to win the game. And

(40:29):
rebounding by itself, even though it looks good, it doesn't
necessarily lead to winning. I went back and looked in
the twenty three season, the last year of Steven Silas ball,
the Rockets ranked fourth in the league and rebounding, and
they were terrible overall and on defense. So while certainly
you would prefer to get more rebounds, I just ringle
that to say that it's all about context. Rebounds alone

(40:50):
don't tell you a whole lot about how the team
is a whole functions or.

Speaker 3 (40:55):
Into the court and in this game in specific, even
though if you look at it, if you look at
it in the end, and I'll talk about this more
in depth, when when when when? When I'm talking about
the Nuggets game, they had like six rebounds in one possession.
It's not about how many rebounds you get. It's about
how many second count points you get, like they If

(41:16):
the Nuggets get ten offensive rebound and score twenty points
off of them and you get sixteen and you score seven,
then it doesn't really matter if you're getting a rebound
and bricking and a rebound and bricking in the rear,
or you're getting those sequences where it's tip. It's like
rebound tip, miss, rebound tip miss, freehunted miss, like that
counts you the static but yeeah, it's it doesn't. It

(41:36):
doesn't actually help you win.

Speaker 2 (41:42):
And the bottom line for me with the double big lineup,
I think when you do it over extended periods, it
raises your floor, but it lowers your ceiling, or at
least it does for this team. And with that in mind,
I get why for most of the month of March
it's been in a pe option. When you play Steven

(42:02):
and Alpi together, you're probably not going to be on
the bad ends of any you know, ten nothing twelve
nothing type runs. Just the sheer size and physicality and
you know, control the glass on both ends off of missus.
It's going to keep the game more stable, and so
it just buys time until eventually your top end talents
make a few more plays. And in March, beyond playing

(42:24):
weaker teams that you just didn't want to see something
go catastrophically wronged against, it was also a band aid
for your roster because you had a man out due
to injury and Fred was out for a while as well.
But against the good teams, the Rockets probably don't have
better top end talent. Like I know, there are peaks
and valleys throughout a year, and if you score hard
enough you can find a five to ten game sample

(42:46):
where they look good offensively. But for the year overall,
their metrics have actually been very stable top five defensive
rating all year while being mediocre on offense. Again about fifteen,
give or take a couple of spots, it's barely moved.
So to be a good team, and this is only
going to get even more important as you get to
the playoffs, you usually need to play to your strings.

(43:08):
And in the case of this team, especially when they're healthy,
it's pretty clear they beat the best teams with elite
defense and elite athleticism. That's when they're at their best. Well,
when you play double bigs and you do a ton
of zone, it makes it hard to stack good possessions
together because by design, you're giving up certain shots and
you're giving up certain areas of the court. It might

(43:31):
be different if you were to embrace a true jumbo lineup,
like we talked about a couple of pods ago, if
you played like some combo of Jalen, Amen, Jabbari and
Tari at the other three spots, because you have enough
length to still contest on a decent amount of the
three point looks. The backdoor cuts the attempts at crashing

(43:51):
the glass for an offensive rebound that Michael Porter Junior
did add nauseum the other night. But if you got
guys like fred than Fleet, who's super undersize rocks who
just can't rebound it is what he is at this
point of his career, it's going to be tough to
consistently get stops right. You'll get enough to stay afloat,
but it's just gonna be hard to be elite that way. Yeah,

(44:12):
and not just that on on on.

Speaker 3 (44:13):
Your point about you know, the gymbo lineup versus the
double big lineup. You can run the double big lineup, right,
and you're going to have that that's rebounding onto positions.
But if you're giving up that size in the point coup,
in the in the shooting yard rule, you're still going
to be giving up you know, extra players that are
that are going to easily get reelanes. For example, in

(44:35):
this game against the Nuggets in specific, they were running
basically the smallest player on the court was Kimal Murray
and our primary defender for them Murray for much of
the game, which was Kale and Green And well, if
Killen Green's on Jamal Murray, now you have Frevan Vlied
on one of Christian Brown who's sixty seven, Aaron Gordon,
who's uber athletic, game six eight, Michael Porter Junior who's

(44:57):
six's eleven, or the Andred Jordan, who's obviously one of
the best rebounders of you know this generation, right, that
happened a lot. If you go look, MPJ had four
offensive rebounds.

Speaker 4 (45:08):
This is.

Speaker 3 (45:10):
Yeah, exactly and you, especially like MPJ is not some
great rebounder, right, He's not some hustle guy, and you
gave up four offensive boards off of it, and especially him,
he can score from anybody with that, even with a
timber that I can recall several possessions, or he just
gets a second chance point and he just shoots a
little gumper and for him that's cash, even if it's

(45:30):
contest contested. And that's one of the weaknesses for this
team as well, Like we contest a lot of shots, right,
but if they have tough shot makers that can just
make shots over contests, we don't necessarily crowd space as
much as we get a good contest off in link.
That's what happened a lot of the time, especially with
do with Joan Joe. Joan gets a lot of good

(45:50):
contests that will go out as that statistically probably count
as you know, extremely contested shots, but you're not actually
crowding theirs, so they don't need to see the basket.
These guys, you know, don't know their spots, and in
their spots it's out, it's automatic. You need to crowd
the space versus you know, just you're not going to
block the shot. So barely almost blocking the shot doesn't

(46:12):
really do anything. But yeah, this one, to compound on
what you said is a double big is one thing,
and it gives you some advantages. Even Adams is a
great rebounder. But if the other team's playing bigger across
the board, you're getting an advantage on a couple of possessions,
a couple of positions which you're losing that advantage as well,
and the other ones which I'll get into it later on,

(46:33):
but which is one of the cases for playing for
events with less.

Speaker 2 (46:35):
But yeah, go ahead, Yeah, I think that's a fair
argument as well, at least in games where he's shooting
terribly the way he was against the Nuggets. With that said,
I think the counter argument that some would make, and
I've seen it a few places on social media, is
that with the double big, if you truly believe in it,
you do need more floor spacing on offense or it's
just gonna get clunky. And I get where it comes from,

(46:57):
because even those Changoon and Steven are both really good passers,
at some point it's gonna be problematic if the defense
just doesn't respect enough real estate on the floor. And
that's the conundrum you potentially get into if you're running
a trio of Jalen, Amen, Tari, and Jabari, three of
those four alongside the double bigs. I can't tell you
for sure it's going to work. I can tell you

(47:19):
I think it's worth trying, because there's more upside that way,
and you're not necessarily conceding to mediocrity at the defensive end.
But I can't tell you for sure it's going to work.
But here's why I think on the offensive end it's
still not worth it. A huge part of the formula
for how the Rockets have scored this year as their athleticism.

(47:39):
They ranked six in the league in fast breakpoints, and
when they won at Denver in January, they had twenty
five on Sunday. They had zero seventeen per game on average,
twenty five at Denver in January, zero on Sunday. And
I think it's pretty simple as to why. If you're
running two plotting big men who are near the rim

(48:00):
on most defensive possessions, it's pretty difficult to get out
and run when those are two of your five players,
And then especially if one of the remaining three is
Fred who's well below average in terms of both size
and athleticism, and Fred played forty two minutes nearly the
entire game. Tari and Jabari basically played just sixteen apiece,
So how exactly are you gonna get those easy buckets?

(48:23):
Tori is basically a one man transition crew, yet you
chose not to play him in large part because of
these tactical choices that you made. Well, you're neutering one
of your strengths. And then conversely, then we saw this
during the Denver game as well. You pointed this out.
You also gave up some runouts to guys like Christian
Brown and Russell Westbrook who leaked out because they know
you've got two plotting bigs out there, and neither of

(48:46):
them is really a quick twitch athlete that recovers, make
plays in space, and not really above the rim shot blockers.
So you're lowering your own fast break opportunities and raising
the oppositions. So at the end of the day, what
it ends up doing, I do believe that it raises
your defensive floor. It prevents you from being vulnerable to

(49:08):
as many ten nothing twelve nothing type runs, but it
lowers your defensive ceiling because it's tougher to stack consecutive
stops together. The opposition is still getting good looks at threes,
back to or cuts offensive rebounds from time to time,
especially if they're able to crash against smaller, less athletic opponents,
as you were pointing out. And it also reduces your
transition opportunities for the month overall. I looked it up

(49:30):
because the month of March is when the Rockets have
lead into double big so much. They ranked twenty third
in fast break points this month. For the season, they
rank six. That's a pretty big change. And again, the
guys you took out Sunday to run these double big
lineups were largely Jabarientari. And you're cutting minutes for two

(49:51):
of your better players overall, and really two of your
more impactful players when it comes to defense and transition play.
So you're weakening two of your s when it comes
to defense and transition. And so to offset that, the idea,
I guess is that you can be better at half
court execution on offense. It's just for me to go

(50:13):
back to what I said earlier. It's playing not to
lose rather than playing to win. It's not a bet
that I'm comfortable making for a team that's been mediocre
offensively all year long. I would rather go out and
dictate the game on my terms, and if you lose,
you lose, but go out in a way that lets
your strengths be strengths, and that's the defense and the

(50:33):
athleticism when this team is at its best. Now, I'm
not going to say that there's an easy solution. It's
not as if you could do nothing and stay the course,
because obviously the starting lineup was struggling, especially in the
second half. That's why I may needed to change things up.
But there's just different ways you can go about it,
especially against good teams. You know, I mentioned jumbo ball
and playing longer athletes across the board to prevent the

(50:56):
easy three point looks and the putbacks and the crashing.
May maybe that works. Maybe that gives you a chance
to She'll be great defensively and also give you transition opportunities.
Can't tell you for sure how it works in terms
of the half court offense, but you could at least
explore it. If you really do believe in double big
as a concept, you could also do double big, but
do it in smaller doses, like you know, for a

(51:17):
few minutes here or there give the opponent something else
to think about. Or maybe it's like a portion of
the game where you're okay with having a higher forward
or lower ceiling. Maybe it's against a team that has
a bad second unit. Maybe if you're up ten twelve
points and you want to, you know, minimize the chances
of ten to nothing run by the opposition, something of
that nature. But then you can also go to the
complete opposite direction and go smaller with like Shabari at

(51:39):
the five, and play at least three, maybe all four
of your elite defensive guys Dylan a minh Tsari, Jabari,
and make it to where you just can basically switch
every action and then there aren't many clear mismatches, if any,
for Jamal Murray to find. And I'm sure some will say, well,
if you're alread struggled with rebounding, should you really play
without the center? Well, there's always games where teams literally

(52:00):
shoot their opponents out of bigger lineups. Are the Nugets strong,
They're going to keep DeAndre Jordan out there even if
he's got fifteen rebounds. If Jabari is making threes and
he's not leaving the paint, threes beat twos. Every time
the Rockets had the math advantage in terms of taking
more threes, they just didn't make them. Maybe playing Jabari
swith Junior gives you a better chance to make them.
And so I'll let you jump in on this note.

(52:22):
Polow the way I would sum up my take on
this game and why it makes me more uncomfortable the
more I think about it. I can't promise that any
of these other ways are gonna work, but I'm just
way more comfortable with them because at least you're trying
to play to your strengths. It's being proactive to go
double big against a good team for as long as

(52:42):
they did against Denver. To me, that feels reactive. It's
lowering the ceiling, and in today's NBA like the priority
is having the highest ceiling possible. It's just, in my opinion,
a bandid approach, and I'm fine with that. For most
of March, when you've been shorthanded, you're playing bad teams,
you're just trying to scratch across a win and move
on to the next one. But I think there are

(53:04):
real limits to it if you do it for long
periods against good teams and so the way they approached
that game against the Nuggets, it just left me unseubtled.
It felt like a little bit of a panic move
and a little bit of an overreaction. How are we
in agreement on that? And what other grievances do you
have from Sunday, because I know from producing your Twitter

(53:25):
timeline you've got a few of them.

Speaker 3 (53:28):
Yeah, so I think I think there's a few things.
They're one thing that I want to call right now
that I think will be something that people talk about
after the playoffs, which is this team, regardless of whether
they're playing off of Missus or not. I bet you
that the base of the game has slowed down to

(53:49):
a crawl compared to the beginning of the season. And
I mean this in the sense that, well it goes
I can do the transition stat Yeah. Yeah, it's not
just transition though, I mean just the purpose with with
our guards are dribbling up the court. I think with
Kilen this is very very obvious. He's you know, he's
had a good season, and sometimes it feels like he

(54:10):
gets too full of himself and he's like, you know
that kind of stylish like swaggy dribbling.

Speaker 2 (54:16):
Up the court.

Speaker 3 (54:16):
I'm the star here. I'm about to get the offense
in motion. Listen, we were never a good half core
offensive team. We are now going to start being it now.
And when we lean on that, we are too reliant
on Fred Tailor and LP to be great and that's
just not going to be the case every single night.

(54:37):
And I feel like we and I think I feel
like in the playoffs, this is obviously if it doesn't start,
you know, reversing course on that now. If we don't
start reversing course on that now, and the playoffs is
going to be worse. And people are gonna say, people
are going to forget that this has been happening for
a couple of months and people are gonna say, oh,
or half court offense, but it's in the playoffs because
the game's sold down. No, we've been slowing the game

(54:58):
down for a couple of months now. I have no
idea if the stats it's the starts packet I've a
should expect, But that's what the ideas tells me. We've
been slower in getting into our actions. We're crossing half courts,
almost giving up eight second violations because for some reason
that's one of the things that I always noticed when
I'm like, I'm watching them drivel up the court and

(55:18):
I'm always worried about the eight second violation, and they
come incredibly close a lot.

Speaker 2 (55:22):
Of the time.

Speaker 3 (55:23):
And yes, we don't have the best you know, handles
in the league on our guys, but I mean the
status as it is. When we turn the ball over
what more than ten times, we win the game basically
every time, it's okay to give up more turnovers and
play with more pace because it's essentially offsets for this
team because we struggle so much in the half court.

(55:44):
That's one other thing that's been bothering me for a while,
and that's gotten even worse. Not that thread's the point
card again because Fred is very much slower and it's
not his natural style to push the pace. That doesn't
mean he can't do it. Earlier this season he was
doing it, but he needs to be intentional about it
in order for it to click right. It's not something

(56:06):
he naturally does, and so that's one of the things
we have to We can't lose that identity because that
feels like that it's been something that's been going on
throughout the season. Is we find the advantages in certain areas,
but we cannot forget, you know, when we find a
new advantage, we can't forget of the advantages that we

(56:26):
weren't getting before. We were earlier early on where we
were really really good defensive team, but then Kevin caught
fire and we stopped being a really really good defensive
team because we didn't need to be. And then we are.
And then we got double big lineup, and and we
got all of those all of those zone looks right,
and with those zone looks we became a better defensive

(56:48):
team again. But now we forgot that. During our run
we were pushing the place. That's how we win game.
We can't get advantages by ourselves most of the time
unless we're shooting lights out or all pes can't PI guard,
and so we kind of lost that because of the
big lineup and the zone looks have been working. We
have to put all of those together if we want
to have a chance in the playoffs, because teams are

(57:10):
going to prepare specifically for what we're we at and
they're going to try and force us being in those
situations as much as possible. We have to combine all
of those. Besides that, and that's that partly ties into
why I'm at a point where I'm actually, Okay, this

(57:33):
is a tough thing to say, but I'm probably and
it will never happen. But at this point I don't
think fred Ventvi it will be the starting point guard.

Speaker 2 (57:42):
Oh I going to happen, But I understand where you're
coming from.

Speaker 3 (57:45):
Yeah, it's ever gonna happen. But at this point he's
not contributing enough for it to be worth it.

Speaker 2 (57:52):
Right.

Speaker 3 (57:52):
He does bring stable ball handling right, which is a
big plus. And this is also a convert and going
into next season because of the entire day options, the
other team option thing. He's not shooting well. He is
still a stable ball handler, but he doesn't see every
every read in the book. And how effectively is he

(58:13):
really if they want if the two man game with
Linguin is not as effective because he can't shoot, And
that also that also makes King Gun's job harder because
he's having to settle for those you know, longer floor
type set shots that he has. And to me, right,
if you're getting out of him with stable ball handling

(58:34):
and mediocre three point shooting, and that's basically it because
he can't get to the room. You can get that
for twelve millionaireere on a backup point card. I mean
and Andrew Nemhart can do that and he makes what
ten twelve millionaire for the placers. If that's what you want,
that stable presence that at times in the games is necessary,
you don't need to be paying this much for him.

(58:55):
I had a tweet to day about if he wants
more than twenty five million AAV and yeah, no word
that regardless, at the very least he has to be
willing to play him less because we've seen success with
with lineups that have You know, Jalen has the smallest guy,
and Jalen has gone on a lot better. He still
strolls with blitzer's, he still throlls with double teams.

Speaker 2 (59:17):
Although he may actually credited him the other night with
handling the blitzer is a lot better. Which game was
that I'm forgetting it was either Orlando or Miami, But
after one of those two games on the road, he
may went out of his way post game to talk
about how I may to talk about how Jalen, excuse me,
got much better in handling the blitzes that he had
when playing that same team earlier. In this season, had to.

Speaker 3 (59:37):
Had to be had to be Orlando because Miami he
didn't have a great game.

Speaker 2 (59:40):
That's right, Yeah, it would have been Orlando then, because yeah,
Miami was a men and Fred. You're right, And if
Fred plays like he did in Miami, then that's a
different discussion. And that's why you know, I'm sure he'll start,
but you just don't have to force a round peg
into a square hole if he's not shooting well and
by the fourth quarter, you know, he was two of nine.
It's not like he's threes were in and out. They
weren't even close. And so he's shrew up nine and

(01:00:02):
he's given you value as a shooter, and he's limiting
you in terms of size and athleticism. What exactly is
the value? Add I know there's still some from structured
organization and overall flow, but it can't be what's not
like Martin Maldonado blank check this. And even if he's
hitting like one sixty, then we just you know, worship

(01:00:25):
at the altar and say this guy starts every day
no matter what, just because there's some intangible value. No,
there has to be some value that we can quantify, right, Yeah,
And and I.

Speaker 3 (01:00:37):
Do think that he that he brings some value in
the angles that he takes defensively that basically know, the
guy on our team kind of does. And he does navigate,
you know, defending moll screens all. It's better than a
lot of Organs. Even Amends sometimes struggles with him. So
he brings some value in certain situations. Nobody's denying that.
But you could also play with We could also play

(01:00:59):
more sweet heavy, like I think he's actually good when
we have a guy that's going off and you don't
want to switch as much because that guy is cooking
everybody and you know switchling is not going to work.
But you have to at least very at least be
comfortable playing him less minutes. And then besides that, you
cannot under any circumstance, no matter how poorly he is playing.

(01:01:22):
And I don't think he was playing that pearly to
begin with. You cannot play Taris and what's sixteen minutes
of a game? It just kept he brings too much
sixteen either. Yeah, to Meitari is even more egregious because
Jammerry can have bad games. Jebry sometimes hooks fast defensively,
sometimes he isn't making his shots. But I will tell

(01:01:43):
you listen talking about the Nuggets game in specifically, it
was the game by five points, right, and they were
a very inferior team because they didn't have Nicolaioku. But
there were a lot of things that we kind of
missed out on that turned the game into loss. Obviously,
there were the three throws. Obviously, there was the insanely
shooting from Denver that shouldn't be enough there it was.

(01:02:03):
There was the offensive reybody and the conversion of that
into in the second chance point, Jalen just had just
an unfl like he had to really clutch end ones.
But then he missed like three shots in a row
that would have gotten us really into.

Speaker 2 (01:02:18):
You know, the bunny in the final minute that would
have brought you into and.

Speaker 3 (01:02:22):
Two weird floorders where he scared the pulling for pulling
back for the midring shots. So he shoots this little
leaning floter that sometimes goes.

Speaker 2 (01:02:30):
And then he's shaking his hand out after so you're
worried about his fingers.

Speaker 3 (01:02:33):
Yeah, yeah, So obviously that didn't go well. Fredent Leet
missed a very important three wide open without curve of
Gardeness within range. This to say, and obviously operen single
missed some free throws just to say that we have
there were a lot of edges that we could have
gotten that would have gardened us the wind there.

Speaker 2 (01:02:53):
Uh.

Speaker 3 (01:02:54):
And obviously you can't win all these quot games. The
Rockets are in the most quotes games in the league ethic,
and we win surprising high Sometimes that's not gonna work.
That's fine, but it does have some worrying trends. The
entire thing about the event is that we get and
then the ones we just we just let get away
for no reason. And there is sometimes you no, I

(01:03:16):
love email right, and he's great at motivating the guys,
but sometimes from a strategy standpoint, which is weird to
say from a coach that has got into the finals
the only season he's coach. But some and maybe this
gets better in the playoffs, but there's sometimes there's just
some some some decisions that just had very little self
Like I think the start, I don't have the studs
like Ormy, but I think the start is pretty entire.
For Quirl, you were getting returns, but guys don't have

(01:03:40):
infinite energy. Those the returns are going to the attentially
start to diminish. You can't play the reason that little.
If you're seeing the that we're giving up offensive rebounds
because it's too small to be playing. You have to
play in as minutes. If we're struggling with shooting the
way we are, you know, give Aaron Holidays a minute.
There's things out there. Don't rely on the double big

(01:04:02):
lineup as much. Experiment bringing back that lineup that Ryan
Hollins and Greg were finding over the A couple of
games back, or a game back where you're running Steven Adams,
Love Pernhing, gon Keylan Green and Men Thompson and Tarresan
or Javari Smith a Reason and Keilan Green, I don't
remember which one it was, but where you're just real,

(01:04:22):
really big and you have at least one confident ball
handler in Kale and War someone can bring the ball
out to the court. There were things that could have
looked for in that game. You could have looked for
getting Jamari Smith involved in the mid range, which we
saw none of the entire game. Just he didn't get
a single look like that you could have looked for, Like,

(01:04:42):
there's just multiple things that you could have looked for
that you just weren't obviously Ersingon had you know, one
of his clumsiest games, not obviously passing the ball, obviously
he had a triple leuvel, but just finishing in the
second that he was making it there. Listen, there were
a lot of boys to have won this game, and
if they this happens in the playoffs is going to
thing really really bad because every game matters, so then

(01:05:05):
much Yeah.

Speaker 2 (01:05:07):
In your discussion of the Denver game specifically and really
trying to put a bow on this episode, I'll let
you have the closing thoughts if there's anything else that
you want to throw in. I saw some people on
social media comparing it to like the Brooklyn losses in
Utah last month. No, I think that's misguided. This is
not a bad loss. It's a harmful loss because Denver's
right behind you in the standings. But Denver still a

(01:05:28):
good team, and I thought, you know, there were lapses
in intensity, but by and large, the Rockets wanted to
win that game. You could feel the energy, especially in
the fourth word. They played very hard. This was not
a game and they haven't had too many of these,
but when they do, it stands out. The two Brooklyn
games Utah and Charlotte where they're just unprofessional, And for
most of the Philadelphia game, this wasn't embarrassing, like they

(01:05:50):
played hard, so I wouldn't put it in that bucket
at all. But in some ways that makes it more frustrating,
because like the games against Philly, it's like that's a
clear outlier, So just play harder, be a professional, and
you're going to be fine with this. It felt like
many of the shortcomings were because of strategic decisions of
their own choosing, be it you know, the players on

(01:06:10):
the floor or the coaching staff, and that's where it's
just a little more frustrating. It's not a terrible loss,
it's an understandable one, but it's also a preventable one
if any one of a number of variables goes differently
and they just, you know, largely stayed in a box.
And I'm hoping that that it's something that they will correct.
But I do think it ties in with one of

(01:06:32):
the longer term trends that you pointed out, which is
that it feels like throughout the year, once they find
a new way to do something, sometimes it feels like
they forget about the old way. And I think sometimes
that's being reactive at saying well, this worked for us
the last name, so we're going to go back to
the well until it doesn't, as opposed to the proactive

(01:06:52):
way of managing and saying, hey, these are the things
we know we do well. This is our foundation, and
even if it goes away from us for a game
or two, then we feel confident that this is how
we win games. And I think it's pretty clear if
you look at the overall data for the Rockets how
they want to win games. And the good news is
that I think it meshes largely with how Imo Udoka

(01:07:13):
wants to coach. But with ten games left, they don't
have a ton of time to get back into it.
And that's why, especially the prolonged double big, with the
smaller guys like Fred playing with them and the obvious
defficiencies that leaves you in his own scheme, it's difficult
at this stage of the year to make radical changes,
so I'm hoping that's a one off. I will say

(01:07:36):
that a lot of what we've seen in March has
been a shorthanded roster against bad opponents. This is the first,
or was the first real tests with a fully healthy
team that they've had in a while against a quality opponent.
I'm hoping that they'll do some things differently starting tonight
against Atlanta, but we'll see. It's fair to have concerns.

(01:07:56):
And the last point I'll make before handing things over
to you to close, it is very interesting to me
that I may talks a lot, and rightfully so, about
how deep this team is. He called it the deepest
he's ever coached a week or so ago. And I'll
just give one example. Jays Shan Tate was plus thirty
in twenty two minutes against the Sixers, and I don't
think he's played since. I think the game against Miami

(01:08:20):
they only played eight players. You had your starters and
then Tari Jabari and Steven Adams off the bench. So
you have these guys you mentioned. You know, I'm talking
about Tate, but you mentioned Aaron Holliday, who's still a
very good shooter. Makes sense in certain configurations you do
have options down your bench that you can turn to
if Plan A, and in the case of the Nugets game,

(01:08:40):
even Plan B wasn't really working yet. It feels like lately,
especially they've been a bit more rigid. I hope that changes.
We'll see tonight. Maybe the games against the Jazz give
you a little bit more breathing room, but I don't know.
I tend to think that maybe they need the games
against the tougher opponents, because I think some of the
way they're playing as habits they picked up from just

(01:09:01):
sort of meandering through March. Even though they've won, they've
meandered through it. Nonetheless against teams they're heavily favored against
and just trying to sort of get the win, don't
get anybody hurt and move on to the next one,
as opposed to now that you're playing legitimately good teams, Okay,
you've got to for starters, play with more intensity, but

(01:09:23):
then be a bit more tactical. You've got to be
more decisive in terms of the players in the four,
the coaching staff, everybody in the organization, and hopefully Sunday
is a one off, and there's plenty of time left
for it to change. They're still in a good spot
in the standings, and they'll have plenty of opportunities should
be in the playoffs as well to prove that it
was an outlier. But for the time being, I get

(01:09:43):
why it's frustrating, and that's why for me it's actually
a little bit more alarming than the Brooklyn games. You know,
it's maddening as all hell, but whatever, they just didn't
treat the game professionally. It sucks, but it happens, and
it honestly happens to most teams at some point over
the eighty two game grind. This one felt a little
more like, you know, meat was left on the bone.

(01:10:04):
There were things they clearly could have done, and they
clearly wanted to do. For the most part, they played hard,
they just didn't necessarily, either the players on the floor
or the coaches on the sidelines put themselves in the
best positions to take advantage of the opportunities that were
out there. And so that's why this one stains a
little bit on top of the obvious standings, implications, hell,
or anything else you want to throw out before we

(01:10:24):
close out.

Speaker 3 (01:10:26):
Yeah, I think even though even though we're being negative,
I think it's it's worth noting that really young team, No,
it's growing paints right, and we are flipping from being
really bad and the type of analysis that comes with
that where you're looking for the future to being really
good and now you you analyze, obviously, and you nit
pick at everything, and that's our jub that's what you

(01:10:48):
do with the winning team. So I want to that
I want to say to to end on a brighter,
on a breader note, was the Lakers just lost by
twelve to the Magic My My Boy Ball on thirty
on seventeen shots. So the Lakers are back down to losses,
back in the lost to losses, back in the lost
column exactly. And listen, there's a scenario out there where

(01:11:13):
the Warriors are without Steph Curry for what a couple
of games. What if the Clippers passed, the Warriors get
the sixth seed and we dropped to three, and we
played them in the first round.

Speaker 2 (01:11:23):
Also, and the Minnesota result just went final as well.
So they're at thirty two losses. So now you have
a six game lead over them, and you essentially have
a six game lead over the Clippers as well because
of the tiebreaker. So yeah, as far as any disaster scereos,
certainly the timber Le's taking the loss and then the
Lakers giving you a little bit more breathing room for
a top three seed. Very good night for the Rockets.

Speaker 3 (01:11:43):
Yeah, And to add on top of that, the MAVs
are up thirteen with a d back over the Nets,
which is expected, but students watch hashtag yeah gets the
Suns out of the play And again if the if
the obviously if the season ended today, So just everything's
going well for the Rockets done this night, though obviously
the Nuggets losing to the Bulls is unlikely, but maybe

(01:12:06):
that happens. But yeah, all in all, it's still I
guess I'll end with this, even if going to the playoffs,
what I was just worried about about the emails of
just onments, even if that doesn't get better, I think,
and it's something that I mentioned before on the pot.
To me, the most important thing of all is that
we are going to get to what these guys play

(01:12:27):
in the playoffs, and we were going to get to
see what they're made of. And I think we will
be surprised by some guys who play a lot better
and some guys who obviously are a going to play worse.
But it's going to be cool to see who's who.
So yeah, the unknown is always exciting.

Speaker 2 (01:12:43):
Yeah, and the optimistic note that I'll levon, I think
a it's possible that if you win nine games in
a row, it's easy to fall into the trap of
thinking that everything's going to be okay and just double
down on what you've done recently. We can talk about
the season long data all day long, but when you're
in a streak, when you're in the grind and you're

(01:13:04):
stacking ones the way they have, yeah, it's possible if
this really was an outlier and they just leaned into
some things a bit too much and they learn from it.
And that leads into my second and closing point, which
is they need test against good competition. They have not
had that. They got punched in the mouth by Jamal
Murray and a good Denver team on Sunday in a
way that most teams they played this month have not

(01:13:25):
been able to. Let's see how they adjust Trey Young
and the Hawks tonight. They've won seven of their last
nine games, are certainly capable, although not as good as Denver.
And then you know, you get to the weekend, the
road games in Phoenix and LA. We'll see if Lebron
is back by then, certainly Luca will be out there.
It looks like, no matter what I think, going into
the playoffs, you don't want to just play bad teams

(01:13:45):
that you can just out talent. You need to be
tested and prove that you can out execute out scheme
teams that are competing at the highest level, and they
didn't on Sunday, But there's going to be a lot
more opportunities in the next tre or three week before
the playoffs. Hopefully the Rockets go out there and learn
from what happened against the Nuggets, take advantage and prove
that they're where they are for reason forty six and

(01:14:07):
twenty six number two in the West. As we are
recording this late Monday night slash early Tuesday morning, depending
on where you are late Monday for me in Houston,
early Tuesday for Paolo in Portugal. Anyway, that's where we'll
wrap things for tonight and if you want more content
before that next show, the best place to get it,
as always is online. You can follow me on Twitter
or x at Vendubo's the show at the logger line

(01:14:28):
and if you go to the logger lines page, if
you can find our link tree that's got links to
all our distribution partners like Apple, Google and Spotify. You
kind of have to subscribe I pods to review at
your location of choice. We greatly appreciate that. Also on
that same link Stree you can find links to friends, sponsors,
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Today's Rockets were you get those links and you can
enjoy their content as well. All right, with those plays complete,

(01:14:51):
we'll join for today for Paolo, I'm Ben. Thanks as
always for listening, and please come back soon for another
new episode of the logger Line.

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