March 6, 2025 • 20 mins
Well, the world order is rocky and looking to get rockier.
US President Donald Trump has had a spectacular falling-out with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky, and waging a damaging trade war, while China is cruising war ships off the Australian coast. And the conflict in Gaza is unresolved.
Not to mention closer to home, South East Queensland and northern NSW now have Cyclone Alfred bearing down on them.
So, how will all this uncertainty affect the election campaign?
And how can the leaders keep the focus on ordinary people, when there is so much going on around us?
Today on Inside Politics, chief political correspondent David Crowe, and national security correspondent Matthew Knott, join host Jacqueline Maley.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
S1 (00:00):
From the newsrooms of the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age.
This is inside politics. I'm Jacqueline Maley, it's Friday, March 7th.
S2 (00:07):
You're gambling with World War three. We stand with Ukraine.
S3 (00:11):
President Zelensky is a modern day hero. He's a war hero.
S1 (00:16):
Well, the world order is rocky and it's looking to
get even rockier. US President Donald Trump has had a
spectacular falling out with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, and he
has ended US military aid to Ukraine. This puts him
completely at odds with his European allies. Meanwhile, Trump is
waging a trade war and China is cruising warships off
(00:39):
the Australian coast. The conflict in Gaza remains unresolved. So
how will all this international uncertainty affect our election campaign?
How much will the rest of the world intrude upon
that campaign? And how can our domestic leaders keep focus
on ordinary voting Australians when there is so much else
(00:59):
going on around us? For this episode, we welcome our
chief political correspondent, David Crowe, as usual, and also our
national security guru correspondent Matthew Knott. Welcome, gentlemen.
S4 (01:12):
Hi, everyone.
S5 (01:13):
Hello to both of you.
S1 (01:14):
Matt, I want to start with you. Following Donald Trump's
extraordinary clash with President Volodymyr Zelensky last Friday, what was
the reaction in Canberra? Was there widespread sort of acknowledgement
that this really changes the game in terms of our
foreign policy settings, changes the world order? Or do people
just shrug their shoulders?
S4 (01:32):
I know, definitely not a shrug of the shoulders. I
think this is very much in the category of shocking,
but not surprising. In terms of Trump's approach to Ukraine,
it was pretty clearly spelled out well ahead of Election
Day how he felt about it. He promised that he
would end the war on day one of his administration.
And now reality is coming home to to bite. But
(01:56):
it was still incredible and alarming to see that a
white House press conference that went so badly off the rails.
S6 (02:05):
I think we've seen enough. What do you think? What's
this negotiation? This is going to be great television. I
will say that.
S4 (02:13):
People in Canberra are policymakers. Politicians were just as shocked,
as alarmed as everyone else, clearly showing that the US
is essentially abandoning a Ukraine. Our closest partner is stepping away.
Europe is having to step up and play more of
a role. Where does that leave a country like Australia
(02:34):
that is not on the continent, that is, that has
provided important support to Ukraine, but is not a key
player in the conflict. It went further also to show
how unreliable America has come and lots of thoughts about
how we would be affected. You know, if we can
rely ourselves on a Trump administration.
S1 (02:56):
Mhm. David, what was the sort of public reaction from
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and the opposition leader Peter Dutton
following that falling out.
S5 (03:05):
I think that both of them have really downplayed the impact,
and I think their public remarks really are at odds
with what we can all see in front of our
very eyes, which is this, you know, really startling message
from Donald Trump and from Washington, DC about alliances. They've
(03:26):
turned their back on Ukraine. Donald Trump seems quite sympathetic
to Vladimir Putin, the Russian president of all people. The
response from Peter Dutton and Anthony Albanese is not to
amplify this anxiety about America's direction in the world, and
what that means for the American alliance.
S7 (03:46):
Well, I am responsible for Australia's foreign policy. Australia's foreign
policy is determined, determined by Australia.
S5 (03:56):
We've seen the government sort of talk about what it's
doing with the Aukus pact on nuclear submarines, for instance,
to show that they're still on course. Peter Dutton and
Anthony Albanese both expressed strong support for the US alliance.
But at the same time there are differences opening up
in terms of how they handle this US alliance and
how they respond to Donald Trump. And we know that
(04:17):
this is going to be a factor in the election campaign,
because when we asked voters in our most recent resolve
political monitor about responding to Donald Trump, a lot of
Australians don't like some of the Donald Trump policies, but
they think that Peter Dutton would be a better prime
minister to handle Donald Trump. So this is a live
issue during the election campaign, not the most compelling issue
(04:39):
when you put it next to things like health and education,
but still a factor.
S1 (04:43):
On Tuesday, it was reported following that sort of catastrophic
falling out in the white House on Friday, it was
then reported that the US had suspended all military aid
to Ukraine. And then following that news, Anthony Albanese said
he would be willing to deploy Australian troops to Ukraine. David,
how big a force are we talking? Under what conditions?
(05:04):
You know, how sort of fulsome was that offer?
S5 (05:07):
It was a very general will consider it kind of statement.
S7 (05:13):
We're open to consideration of any proposals going forward.
S5 (05:18):
And that's interesting in the sense that previous statements had
kind of said that this wasn't something the Australian government
was envisaging. So Anthony Albanese opened the door to it.
But our peacekeeping deployments around the world are not measured
in hundreds of soldiers. They're measured in dozens. And there
(05:39):
are none in hotspots quite like Ukraine. I think we
have some in Cyprus, for instance. So it was a very,
you know, general offer. But I think the important thing
is that it meant that what Anthony Albanese was saying
was supportive of the message from the British prime minister,
Keir Starmer, and the French president, Emmanuel Macron, who are
(05:59):
developing this idea of a peacekeeping force. If there can
be a truce in Ukraine. I mean, we're nowhere near
a truce at the moment. We're nowhere near a truce.
So it's a highly hypothetical scenario. But the message from
Anthony Albanese lined us up with those European powers.
S1 (06:16):
In contrast, Matt, the opposition leader, Peter Dutton, ruled out
sending troops to Ukraine. So, I mean, what do you
make of that sort of split? It's quite a clear split,
as David has just said. Albanese is lining himself up
with the sort of European allies. Dutton is very clearly not.
S4 (06:33):
Yes, it is an interesting split, as David says, over
quite a hypothetical scenario. You could imagine this going the
other way. Peter Dutton has been a very strong on
the issue of Ukraine rhetorically. He actually came out and said.
S3 (06:48):
No, I was disappointed by the scenes out of the
white House. And I believe that President Zelensky requires the
support of European countries of the United States.
S4 (06:57):
He went further than Anthony Albanese in terms of taking
on Trump directly over Ukraine. But on this, he's said
clearly that this isn't our fight. It's Europe's job to
take up the responsibility. We don't know how big Australia's
contribution would be to any peacekeeping force, but people are
(07:18):
saying that what we're talking about here may not be
a peacekeeping force like we are talking about in a
place like Cyprus, the way Keir Starmer is talking about it,
the British prime minister, he's talking about boots on the ground,
jets in the air. It's perhaps more of an active,
essentially fighting force potentially, rather than just observing and helping
(07:41):
to ensure this wonderful peace. Whether we're ever going to
get there, there are a lot of people in the
military space, you know, former army commanders and whatnot that
you'll find who are saying essentially our military is really
stretched at full capacity in terms of what we're trying
to do in our region. The Army has been being
(08:03):
cut back in recent times to try and reprioritise towards
the Navy, towards Aukus submarines. We've seen the Chinese ship
circumnavigating the continent. So many people in the defence space
say we don't have big resources to be sending significant
numbers of Australian troops over to Europe right now, in
(08:24):
a way, backing up what Peter Dutton is saying. But
other people have argued, well, look, we're dealing with Vladimir Putin.
We're in a big negotiation here. We need to keep
him off balance. And why not say that we're open
to contributing to a force like this as we try
and get a piece here that doesn't just give Putin
(08:46):
everything he wants?
S1 (08:47):
David, last week we had Chinese warships off the Australian coast.
We've got a trade war that Trump is waging with Canada,
China and Mexico. Pretty much the whole world, possibly even us.
There's a lot of international distractions around for the upcoming
election campaign. I just wonder what you think of how much,
how much of the campaign will focus on these external
threats and pressures, and how much of it will be domestic?
S5 (09:08):
I think it it'll still be overwhelmingly domestic. Um, it
will be about the cost of living. And I think, um,
there are signals from Peter Dutton that he's got something
in his back pocket on the cost of living. He
basically said during one of his appearances during the week,
we'll have an announcement that'll help households. He's biding his
(09:29):
time on that for when the campaign begins in earnest.
The government still has a March 25th budget on its schedule,
so it can announce more on the cost of living.
And I think that's where election campaigns go. But I
think it's very important that the backdrop is global uncertainty,
economic uncertainty as well as strategic uncertainty, in large part
(09:50):
because of Donald Trump. Whether it's the tariffs hitting Australian
industry or it's the concerns about Chinese ships, admittedly not
Donald Trump's problem or the changes that are happening with
Europe and Ukraine. Global uncertainty makes security part of the
election campaign, and I think it will be a factor.
(10:11):
It is something where the coalition and Peter Dutton have
an advantage. Uh, voters tend to think of the coalition
as the party to trust on security and defence, and
we see that in our polling. So it's something where
the government's got to make sure it's got a very
clear message about security, because it will be a factor
(10:32):
during the campaign.
S1 (10:33):
Yeah. And I mean, the public does need to be
reassured on these matters. Matt, how much do you think
that all of this international danger and uncertainty will affect
the election campaign, or how will it affect the election campaign?
S4 (10:46):
Well, just to add in, one more factor that we
haven't even discussed are the war in Gaza. There's an
incredibly fragile ceasefire there at the moment that looks like
it really could fall apart at any moment. The war
could resume. We've already seen Israel implementing a full on siege,
not allowing fuel and food to go into the strip.
(11:09):
So this issue that has dominated and so divided Australia
for long, could really roar back into prominence on top
of everything else. It is an interesting divide because I
think most Australians, the issues they're interested in are cost
of living, health, education, they're there day to day lives, security.
But the news cycle and what we're talking about is
(11:31):
going to be so dominated by the chaos in Washington,
in Ukraine, if everything's unravelling there in the Middle East,
it's hard for some of these pretty small bread and
butter promises. A funding announcement for here, a policy announcement there.
They're not going to compete with these big issues of
our time that we're living through. And I think it's
(11:53):
going to be a fascinating campaign. I don't think there's
been one in recent times where there's been so many
foreign policy, so many external issues that could disrupt the campaign.
S1 (12:06):
Mhm. Yeah, that's a really interesting point because both leaders
will need to focus as much as they can on
domestic issues and to wrest back the agenda. But the
vortex of the international news cycle, and particularly the Trump
news cycle, is almost impossible to not be sucked into that.
(12:29):
Getting back to pure domestic policies, in the last week,
we've seen the PM roll out two pledges, which are
very much heartland labor stuff. David, we had one on
Medicare and one on schools funding. Tell us quickly about those.
S5 (12:40):
The the main Medicare um initiative was the $8.5 billion
to improve bulk billing at GPS. The aim is to
make sure that I think as many as 90% of
people should be able to get bulk billing at GPS
with this 8.5 billion. There are questions about whether it's enough.
There are always questions about that, but it's a significant
contribution to Medicare. There's also money going into urgent care clinics,
(13:03):
which do seem to be popular. These are clinics funded
by the federal government that offer an alternative going to
the emergency department at the hospital. And that's, you know,
something that helps people in the real world. Um, but
I think the other big thing that happened was we
got good economic news. We had an economic boost, in
a sense, from the national accounts during the week. And
(13:26):
this showed that there was an end to the per
capita recession. One of the most cut through lines for
the coalition has been saying that households are in a
per capita recession. And we found that that ended, according
to the figures that came out from the Bureau of
Statistics on Wednesday. That's really positive for the government and
got totally lost in all the geopolitical news. So maybe
(13:50):
a lot of voters might not have even noticed it.
But it was something the government, you know, was hopeful
about in terms of launching their election campaign.
S1 (13:59):
I mean, it's a slightly technical point. It doesn't exactly.
I mean, I think the growth rate was 0.1 of
a percentage as opposed to being negative. So, you know,
it's not a huge win for the government, is it.
S5 (14:10):
It was it was a better growth number. Well, it
was a growth number, right? Yeah, but it was extremely small.
The thing is, the thing is the government does have
some numbers that that show inflation is falling.
S1 (14:26):
Yeah.
S5 (14:26):
It's way down on where it was when they got
into power. All these things are factors that can help
the government with an economic message, but it needs sharper
communications to make a compelling economic message while coping with
all these, you know, shocks from overseas. It's very challenging
for the government to actually cut through.
S1 (14:47):
And also, I mean, it does it accord with people's
lived experience. You know, they make a set of statistics
is one thing, but whether or not you feel it
at the, at the, at the till when you go
to the supermarket is another matter. We want to talk
about the coalition, because what have we seen in the
way of new domestic policies from Dutton over the last
week or so?
S4 (15:06):
Uh, you wouldn't say a huge amount. They were extremely
quick to match the Medicare promise, because I think they
saw that that was a huge vulnerability, that that is
very much a labour strength. And they didn't want to
have any daylight between the government and the opposition. We've
seen a lot of talk still about cutting the public service.
(15:27):
You can tell they're not chasing votes in Canberra, because
we're seeing a lot of activity in this space from
the coalition about cutting public service numbers and also about
getting them back to work. That there are too many
public servants working from home. That was a policy announcement
this week, but I wouldn't call it a very fulsome
policy agenda. So far, what they would say is we're
(15:48):
waiting for the election and we will roll out more policies.
Then we saw them say they would add some more, uh,
jets to the Air Force that were cut by labor
last year. That's not a major transformation of our defence
force in any way. It's adding some more planes. Um, actually,
(16:10):
what many military experts say is that's maybe not the
big priority right now. What we need to do is
to get the Navy into shape. We need to be
getting things like drones for the Defence force. So yeah,
I'd say, uh, the coalition has certainly more policy announcements
that they need to roll out, particularly in the economic space.
S1 (16:32):
Yeah, they're very small target at the moment. Okay. Let's
go to election speculation. It's getting very annoying because it
is so speculative. But let's play the game anyway quickly
David Cyclone Alfred is bearing down on Queensland and northern
New South Wales as we speak. And it might affect
the election timing. How so?
S5 (16:52):
Well, I think Anthony Albanese would like to have the
option of calling the election on Sunday or Monday so
that the election could be held on April 12th, if,
in his judgment, that put the government in a strong
position of winning Cyclone Alfred has basically, you know, wiped
away that prospect.
S3 (17:10):
Prime Minister, I know it pales in significance when we're
talking about property and lives.
S7 (17:14):
But sure.
S3 (17:15):
For you? Does this cyclone basically rule out an election
being called this weekend or early next week?
S7 (17:21):
I'm focused as much as some people here are focused
on something else. I'm focused on the needs of Australians.
This isn't a time to for party politics. I'm just
focused on doing my job and governing, and that's something
I've been focused on.
S5 (17:37):
It's highly unlikely for Cyclone Alfred to dissipate in a
way that leaves south east Queensland and northern New South
Wales unscathed, so therefore an election can't be called while
there's a national emergency on like that. And that limits
the government's options. Anthony Albanese on Thursday morning was much
(17:57):
clearer about the prospect of a March 25th federal budget.
And I think looking at that as a signal, it
means that a may election is now more likely than not.
S1 (18:08):
Yeah, Matt, because basically the calculus is if he doesn't
call it this weekend or by Monday at the latest,
it won't be an April 12th election. And then he
misses a window because there's Easter. Easter holidays, Anzac day.
S4 (18:21):
Exactly. We're running into Easter. May 7th would still be
a possibility. That's an option. Yeah. Look, if if the
storm really does go the way it's looking, which is
not very good at all, and the rhetoric does seem
to be shifting around the budget, as David says. And
that just creates more time for unforeseen events to come
(18:45):
in and and change the the lay of the land.
The polling hasn't been moving in a great direction for
the government. We don't expect another interest rate cut. So
what they could deliver in a budget in terms of
more cost of living relief, you know, they could they
could use that as a platform. But we're seeing that
(19:07):
the Prime Minister is beholden to not just Donald Trump,
but also to the weather.
S1 (19:12):
Yeah, yeah. An act of God, as it were. None
of that really brings us closer to an answer on
when it might be, but we will know more by Monday.
It'll either be a pre-easter election or a post-easter election,
so the Easter Bunny will be unscathed by politics. Gentlemen,
thank you so much for your time. Let us do
this again very soon.
S4 (19:30):
Thank you.
S5 (19:31):
Cheers, Jackie. See you. Matt.
S1 (19:34):
Today's episode of Inside Politics was produced by Tammy Mills
with technical assistance from Debbie Harrington and Josh towers. Tom
McKendrick is our head of audio. Inside politics is a
production of The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald. To
support our journalism, subscribe to us by visiting The Age
or smh.com.au. Slash, subscribe and sign up for our Inside
(19:58):
Politics newsletter to receive a comprehensive summary of the week's
most important political news, analysis and insights in your inbox
every week. Links are in the show. Notes. I'm Jacqueline Maley,
this is inside politics. Thank you for listening.
From the newsrooms of the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age.
This is inside politics. I'm Jacqueline Maley, it's Friday, March 7th.
S2 (00:07):
You're gambling with World War three. We stand with Ukraine.
S3 (00:11):
President Zelensky is a modern day hero. He's a war hero.
S1 (00:16):
Well, the world order is rocky and it's looking to
get even rockier. US President Donald Trump has had a
spectacular falling out with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, and he
has ended US military aid to Ukraine. This puts him
completely at odds with his European allies. Meanwhile, Trump is
waging a trade war and China is cruising warships off
(00:39):
the Australian coast. The conflict in Gaza remains unresolved. So
how will all this international uncertainty affect our election campaign?
How much will the rest of the world intrude upon
that campaign? And how can our domestic leaders keep focus
on ordinary voting Australians when there is so much else
(00:59):
going on around us? For this episode, we welcome our
chief political correspondent, David Crowe, as usual, and also our
national security guru correspondent Matthew Knott. Welcome, gentlemen.
S4 (01:12):
Hi, everyone.
S5 (01:13):
Hello to both of you.
S1 (01:14):
Matt, I want to start with you. Following Donald Trump's
extraordinary clash with President Volodymyr Zelensky last Friday, what was
the reaction in Canberra? Was there widespread sort of acknowledgement
that this really changes the game in terms of our
foreign policy settings, changes the world order? Or do people
just shrug their shoulders?
S4 (01:32):
I know, definitely not a shrug of the shoulders. I
think this is very much in the category of shocking,
but not surprising. In terms of Trump's approach to Ukraine,
it was pretty clearly spelled out well ahead of Election
Day how he felt about it. He promised that he
would end the war on day one of his administration.
And now reality is coming home to to bite. But
(01:56):
it was still incredible and alarming to see that a
white House press conference that went so badly off the rails.
S6 (02:05):
I think we've seen enough. What do you think? What's
this negotiation? This is going to be great television. I
will say that.
S4 (02:13):
People in Canberra are policymakers. Politicians were just as shocked,
as alarmed as everyone else, clearly showing that the US
is essentially abandoning a Ukraine. Our closest partner is stepping away.
Europe is having to step up and play more of
a role. Where does that leave a country like Australia
(02:34):
that is not on the continent, that is, that has
provided important support to Ukraine, but is not a key
player in the conflict. It went further also to show
how unreliable America has come and lots of thoughts about
how we would be affected. You know, if we can
rely ourselves on a Trump administration.
S1 (02:56):
Mhm. David, what was the sort of public reaction from
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and the opposition leader Peter Dutton
following that falling out.
S5 (03:05):
I think that both of them have really downplayed the impact,
and I think their public remarks really are at odds
with what we can all see in front of our
very eyes, which is this, you know, really startling message
from Donald Trump and from Washington, DC about alliances. They've
(03:26):
turned their back on Ukraine. Donald Trump seems quite sympathetic
to Vladimir Putin, the Russian president of all people. The
response from Peter Dutton and Anthony Albanese is not to
amplify this anxiety about America's direction in the world, and
what that means for the American alliance.
S7 (03:46):
Well, I am responsible for Australia's foreign policy. Australia's foreign
policy is determined, determined by Australia.
S5 (03:56):
We've seen the government sort of talk about what it's
doing with the Aukus pact on nuclear submarines, for instance,
to show that they're still on course. Peter Dutton and
Anthony Albanese both expressed strong support for the US alliance.
But at the same time there are differences opening up
in terms of how they handle this US alliance and
how they respond to Donald Trump. And we know that
(04:17):
this is going to be a factor in the election campaign,
because when we asked voters in our most recent resolve
political monitor about responding to Donald Trump, a lot of
Australians don't like some of the Donald Trump policies, but
they think that Peter Dutton would be a better prime
minister to handle Donald Trump. So this is a live
issue during the election campaign, not the most compelling issue
(04:39):
when you put it next to things like health and education,
but still a factor.
S1 (04:43):
On Tuesday, it was reported following that sort of catastrophic
falling out in the white House on Friday, it was
then reported that the US had suspended all military aid
to Ukraine. And then following that news, Anthony Albanese said
he would be willing to deploy Australian troops to Ukraine. David,
how big a force are we talking? Under what conditions?
(05:04):
You know, how sort of fulsome was that offer?
S5 (05:07):
It was a very general will consider it kind of statement.
S7 (05:13):
We're open to consideration of any proposals going forward.
S5 (05:18):
And that's interesting in the sense that previous statements had
kind of said that this wasn't something the Australian government
was envisaging. So Anthony Albanese opened the door to it.
But our peacekeeping deployments around the world are not measured
in hundreds of soldiers. They're measured in dozens. And there
(05:39):
are none in hotspots quite like Ukraine. I think we
have some in Cyprus, for instance. So it was a very,
you know, general offer. But I think the important thing
is that it meant that what Anthony Albanese was saying
was supportive of the message from the British prime minister,
Keir Starmer, and the French president, Emmanuel Macron, who are
(05:59):
developing this idea of a peacekeeping force. If there can
be a truce in Ukraine. I mean, we're nowhere near
a truce at the moment. We're nowhere near a truce.
So it's a highly hypothetical scenario. But the message from
Anthony Albanese lined us up with those European powers.
S1 (06:16):
In contrast, Matt, the opposition leader, Peter Dutton, ruled out
sending troops to Ukraine. So, I mean, what do you
make of that sort of split? It's quite a clear split,
as David has just said. Albanese is lining himself up
with the sort of European allies. Dutton is very clearly not.
S4 (06:33):
Yes, it is an interesting split, as David says, over
quite a hypothetical scenario. You could imagine this going the
other way. Peter Dutton has been a very strong on
the issue of Ukraine rhetorically. He actually came out and said.
S3 (06:48):
No, I was disappointed by the scenes out of the
white House. And I believe that President Zelensky requires the
support of European countries of the United States.
S4 (06:57):
He went further than Anthony Albanese in terms of taking
on Trump directly over Ukraine. But on this, he's said
clearly that this isn't our fight. It's Europe's job to
take up the responsibility. We don't know how big Australia's
contribution would be to any peacekeeping force, but people are
(07:18):
saying that what we're talking about here may not be
a peacekeeping force like we are talking about in a
place like Cyprus, the way Keir Starmer is talking about it,
the British prime minister, he's talking about boots on the ground,
jets in the air. It's perhaps more of an active,
essentially fighting force potentially, rather than just observing and helping
(07:41):
to ensure this wonderful peace. Whether we're ever going to
get there, there are a lot of people in the
military space, you know, former army commanders and whatnot that
you'll find who are saying essentially our military is really
stretched at full capacity in terms of what we're trying
to do in our region. The Army has been being
(08:03):
cut back in recent times to try and reprioritise towards
the Navy, towards Aukus submarines. We've seen the Chinese ship
circumnavigating the continent. So many people in the defence space
say we don't have big resources to be sending significant
numbers of Australian troops over to Europe right now, in
(08:24):
a way, backing up what Peter Dutton is saying. But
other people have argued, well, look, we're dealing with Vladimir Putin.
We're in a big negotiation here. We need to keep
him off balance. And why not say that we're open
to contributing to a force like this as we try
and get a piece here that doesn't just give Putin
(08:46):
everything he wants?
S1 (08:47):
David, last week we had Chinese warships off the Australian coast.
We've got a trade war that Trump is waging with Canada,
China and Mexico. Pretty much the whole world, possibly even us.
There's a lot of international distractions around for the upcoming
election campaign. I just wonder what you think of how much,
how much of the campaign will focus on these external
threats and pressures, and how much of it will be domestic?
S5 (09:08):
I think it it'll still be overwhelmingly domestic. Um, it
will be about the cost of living. And I think, um,
there are signals from Peter Dutton that he's got something
in his back pocket on the cost of living. He
basically said during one of his appearances during the week,
we'll have an announcement that'll help households. He's biding his
(09:29):
time on that for when the campaign begins in earnest.
The government still has a March 25th budget on its schedule,
so it can announce more on the cost of living.
And I think that's where election campaigns go. But I
think it's very important that the backdrop is global uncertainty,
economic uncertainty as well as strategic uncertainty, in large part
(09:50):
because of Donald Trump. Whether it's the tariffs hitting Australian
industry or it's the concerns about Chinese ships, admittedly not
Donald Trump's problem or the changes that are happening with
Europe and Ukraine. Global uncertainty makes security part of the
election campaign, and I think it will be a factor.
(10:11):
It is something where the coalition and Peter Dutton have
an advantage. Uh, voters tend to think of the coalition
as the party to trust on security and defence, and
we see that in our polling. So it's something where
the government's got to make sure it's got a very
clear message about security, because it will be a factor
(10:32):
during the campaign.
S1 (10:33):
Yeah. And I mean, the public does need to be
reassured on these matters. Matt, how much do you think
that all of this international danger and uncertainty will affect
the election campaign, or how will it affect the election campaign?
S4 (10:46):
Well, just to add in, one more factor that we
haven't even discussed are the war in Gaza. There's an
incredibly fragile ceasefire there at the moment that looks like
it really could fall apart at any moment. The war
could resume. We've already seen Israel implementing a full on siege,
not allowing fuel and food to go into the strip.
(11:09):
So this issue that has dominated and so divided Australia
for long, could really roar back into prominence on top
of everything else. It is an interesting divide because I
think most Australians, the issues they're interested in are cost
of living, health, education, they're there day to day lives, security.
But the news cycle and what we're talking about is
(11:31):
going to be so dominated by the chaos in Washington,
in Ukraine, if everything's unravelling there in the Middle East,
it's hard for some of these pretty small bread and
butter promises. A funding announcement for here, a policy announcement there.
They're not going to compete with these big issues of
our time that we're living through. And I think it's
(11:53):
going to be a fascinating campaign. I don't think there's
been one in recent times where there's been so many
foreign policy, so many external issues that could disrupt the campaign.
S1 (12:06):
Mhm. Yeah, that's a really interesting point because both leaders
will need to focus as much as they can on
domestic issues and to wrest back the agenda. But the
vortex of the international news cycle, and particularly the Trump
news cycle, is almost impossible to not be sucked into that.
(12:29):
Getting back to pure domestic policies, in the last week,
we've seen the PM roll out two pledges, which are
very much heartland labor stuff. David, we had one on
Medicare and one on schools funding. Tell us quickly about those.
S5 (12:40):
The the main Medicare um initiative was the $8.5 billion
to improve bulk billing at GPS. The aim is to
make sure that I think as many as 90% of
people should be able to get bulk billing at GPS
with this 8.5 billion. There are questions about whether it's enough.
There are always questions about that, but it's a significant
contribution to Medicare. There's also money going into urgent care clinics,
(13:03):
which do seem to be popular. These are clinics funded
by the federal government that offer an alternative going to
the emergency department at the hospital. And that's, you know,
something that helps people in the real world. Um, but
I think the other big thing that happened was we
got good economic news. We had an economic boost, in
a sense, from the national accounts during the week. And
(13:26):
this showed that there was an end to the per
capita recession. One of the most cut through lines for
the coalition has been saying that households are in a
per capita recession. And we found that that ended, according
to the figures that came out from the Bureau of
Statistics on Wednesday. That's really positive for the government and
got totally lost in all the geopolitical news. So maybe
(13:50):
a lot of voters might not have even noticed it.
But it was something the government, you know, was hopeful
about in terms of launching their election campaign.
S1 (13:59):
I mean, it's a slightly technical point. It doesn't exactly.
I mean, I think the growth rate was 0.1 of
a percentage as opposed to being negative. So, you know,
it's not a huge win for the government, is it.
S5 (14:10):
It was it was a better growth number. Well, it
was a growth number, right? Yeah, but it was extremely small.
The thing is, the thing is the government does have
some numbers that that show inflation is falling.
S1 (14:26):
Yeah.
S5 (14:26):
It's way down on where it was when they got
into power. All these things are factors that can help
the government with an economic message, but it needs sharper
communications to make a compelling economic message while coping with
all these, you know, shocks from overseas. It's very challenging
for the government to actually cut through.
S1 (14:47):
And also, I mean, it does it accord with people's
lived experience. You know, they make a set of statistics
is one thing, but whether or not you feel it
at the, at the, at the till when you go
to the supermarket is another matter. We want to talk
about the coalition, because what have we seen in the
way of new domestic policies from Dutton over the last
week or so?
S4 (15:06):
Uh, you wouldn't say a huge amount. They were extremely
quick to match the Medicare promise, because I think they
saw that that was a huge vulnerability, that that is
very much a labour strength. And they didn't want to
have any daylight between the government and the opposition. We've
seen a lot of talk still about cutting the public service.
(15:27):
You can tell they're not chasing votes in Canberra, because
we're seeing a lot of activity in this space from
the coalition about cutting public service numbers and also about
getting them back to work. That there are too many
public servants working from home. That was a policy announcement
this week, but I wouldn't call it a very fulsome
policy agenda. So far, what they would say is we're
(15:48):
waiting for the election and we will roll out more policies.
Then we saw them say they would add some more, uh,
jets to the Air Force that were cut by labor
last year. That's not a major transformation of our defence
force in any way. It's adding some more planes. Um, actually,
(16:10):
what many military experts say is that's maybe not the
big priority right now. What we need to do is
to get the Navy into shape. We need to be
getting things like drones for the Defence force. So yeah,
I'd say, uh, the coalition has certainly more policy announcements
that they need to roll out, particularly in the economic space.
S1 (16:32):
Yeah, they're very small target at the moment. Okay. Let's
go to election speculation. It's getting very annoying because it
is so speculative. But let's play the game anyway quickly
David Cyclone Alfred is bearing down on Queensland and northern
New South Wales as we speak. And it might affect
the election timing. How so?
S5 (16:52):
Well, I think Anthony Albanese would like to have the
option of calling the election on Sunday or Monday so
that the election could be held on April 12th, if,
in his judgment, that put the government in a strong
position of winning Cyclone Alfred has basically, you know, wiped
away that prospect.
S3 (17:10):
Prime Minister, I know it pales in significance when we're
talking about property and lives.
S7 (17:14):
But sure.
S3 (17:15):
For you? Does this cyclone basically rule out an election
being called this weekend or early next week?
S7 (17:21):
I'm focused as much as some people here are focused
on something else. I'm focused on the needs of Australians.
This isn't a time to for party politics. I'm just
focused on doing my job and governing, and that's something
I've been focused on.
S5 (17:37):
It's highly unlikely for Cyclone Alfred to dissipate in a
way that leaves south east Queensland and northern New South
Wales unscathed, so therefore an election can't be called while
there's a national emergency on like that. And that limits
the government's options. Anthony Albanese on Thursday morning was much
(17:57):
clearer about the prospect of a March 25th federal budget.
And I think looking at that as a signal, it
means that a may election is now more likely than not.
S1 (18:08):
Yeah, Matt, because basically the calculus is if he doesn't
call it this weekend or by Monday at the latest,
it won't be an April 12th election. And then he
misses a window because there's Easter. Easter holidays, Anzac day.
S4 (18:21):
Exactly. We're running into Easter. May 7th would still be
a possibility. That's an option. Yeah. Look, if if the
storm really does go the way it's looking, which is
not very good at all, and the rhetoric does seem
to be shifting around the budget, as David says. And
that just creates more time for unforeseen events to come
(18:45):
in and and change the the lay of the land.
The polling hasn't been moving in a great direction for
the government. We don't expect another interest rate cut. So
what they could deliver in a budget in terms of
more cost of living relief, you know, they could they
could use that as a platform. But we're seeing that
(19:07):
the Prime Minister is beholden to not just Donald Trump,
but also to the weather.
S1 (19:12):
Yeah, yeah. An act of God, as it were. None
of that really brings us closer to an answer on
when it might be, but we will know more by Monday.
It'll either be a pre-easter election or a post-easter election,
so the Easter Bunny will be unscathed by politics. Gentlemen,
thank you so much for your time. Let us do
this again very soon.
S4 (19:30):
Thank you.
S5 (19:31):
Cheers, Jackie. See you. Matt.
S1 (19:34):
Today's episode of Inside Politics was produced by Tammy Mills
with technical assistance from Debbie Harrington and Josh towers. Tom
McKendrick is our head of audio. Inside politics is a
production of The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald. To
support our journalism, subscribe to us by visiting The Age
or smh.com.au. Slash, subscribe and sign up for our Inside
(19:58):
Politics newsletter to receive a comprehensive summary of the week's
most important political news, analysis and insights in your inbox
every week. Links are in the show. Notes. I'm Jacqueline Maley,
this is inside politics. Thank you for listening.
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