April 21, 2025 • 19 mins
Governments in developed countries around the world are grappling with their migration policies and Australia is no exception, with the Labor and Liberal parties proffering competing plans on how to slash the number of people arriving at its borders.
This week on the podcast, host Rebecca Jones asks immigration expert Abul Rizvi about Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton’s migration policies ahead of the May 3 federal election — and whether they will actually help Australia’s housing crisis.
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
We have to have a properly managed migration program. In
terms of the permanent migration program, which is running at about
one hundred and eighty five thousand a year now, but
we will reduce that to one hundred and forty thousand.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
The biggest thing that you could do area where you
could reduce the amount is in students because some of that, frankly,
was being abused and we want people to come here
who are involved in construction.
Speaker 3 (00:26):
Hello. I'm Rebecca Jones, and welcome to the second in
our series of bonus episodes of the Bloomberg Australia podcast,
coming to your earbuds every Tuesday's we count down to
the Australian federal election. Each week we scour the nation
for the sharpest takes on the biggest issues that will
decide what box Ossie voters will check come May third. Today.
(00:48):
To help me unpack the issue of immigration and how
that may play out in the coming election, I have
one of the best qualified people for the job, doctor
Abilt Rivesey, who holds a PhD in immergration policy from
the University of Melbourne and was a senior executive and
then the Deputy Secretary at the Department of Immigration, where
(01:08):
he worked for more than sixteen years.
Speaker 4 (01:11):
Up. Well, welcome, thank you, Rebecca.
Speaker 3 (01:13):
So let's start with the basics. We've seen an uptick
in immigration since the pandemic. Why has that happened?
Speaker 4 (01:21):
It happened for a couple of reasons. The first was,
prior to COVID the government had put in place policies
that were steadily leading to an increase in overseas students
coming to Australia. During COVID, and particularly towards the end
of COVID, the government put in place a number of
policies that really really would have accelerated immigration net migration
(01:45):
if there was a strong labor mark, and those two
things coincided, and the moment they coincided, we got the
zoom in immigration that we got as soon as international
borders reopened. In fact, the labor market was so strong
through twenty twenty two that mister Dutton in September twenty
(02:05):
twenty two said we do need to increase the level
of migration, but he was skeptical the government could achieve
the increase quickly enough, and it was only six to
twelve months after that that mister Dutton was saying Oh,
the immigration numbers are totally out of control. How could
this have happened? Well, you know, it was pretty obvious
(02:27):
why it happened, and.
Speaker 3 (02:28):
I think it's been quite interesting what has dominated the
news cycle since the pandemic and one of the key things.
You can't pick up a newspaper, log on to a
news website without seeing the words cost of living crisis
and housing crisis. I want to talk a little bit
about the interconnectedness of policy, specifically about those two elements,
(02:48):
immigration and housing. I think anyone with even a cursory
understanding of policy would guess that it's not a linear
equation right where one family of immigrants he calls one
new house required. Can you break it down for me?
I'd also like to understand a little bit better anything
about that equation that is particularly unique to Australia.
Speaker 4 (03:11):
Well, different types of migrants have different demands on immigration
on housing. So for example, a working holidaymaker who tends
to travel quite a bit through Australia, particularly through regional Australia,
will tend to live in backpack or accommodation that most
dozzies probably wouldn't use overseas. Students similarly tend to congregate
around the CBD of our major cities, and they tend
(03:33):
to use apartments rather than suburban houses, so they have
again a different demand on housing. We then have family migrants,
predominantly's partners, dependent children, and parents who tend to live
with their sponsors, so they don't actually increase demand for housing.
So as you're breaking this down, you have to think
about the composition of the intake in terms of what
(03:56):
impact it will have on demand.
Speaker 3 (03:58):
In terms of the of housing required. Is it fair
to blame immigrants for the housing crisis? Are they the
cause of this? Even when we account for those ozzies
that go on their study abroad, working holidays overseas, fall
in love with a foreign person, want to marry them
(04:19):
and bring them back home, they probably won't be taking
up a whole other house. They may be moving in
with the parents or something like that. It's more complicated, though, right,
isn't it.
Speaker 4 (04:28):
Absolutely there are multiple drivers of our current housing crisis,
and as I think a number of analysts have written,
this has been coming at us for twenty thirty years.
The failure of governments to put in place adequate housing
policies to accommodate our growing population.
Speaker 3 (04:45):
Why can't they get it right?
Speaker 4 (04:47):
That's a very good question. I think part of the
problem is that housing policy is predominantly the responsibility of
state governments, whereas immigration policy is predominantly the responsibility of
the Common Laald government, and the two always have difficulties
in coordinating.
Speaker 3 (05:04):
And that is something I would imagine is quite unique
to Australia as well. We do have this system of
state and federal and local councils governing all different bits
of our lives, quite unique to Australia. Is there any
examples from a broader I know you're a scholar of
immigration too, that's what your whole PhDs in right that
we could potentially use for inspiration. Has anyone else got
(05:26):
it right where we haven't?
Speaker 4 (05:28):
Well, certainly if you look at how governments in Scandinavia
have managed this, they have managed it. They've had relatively
rapid population growth too, but they have not had the
housing crisis that we have had, and their housing policies
are really quite different to Australia's, as is the situation
in most of Europe, where long term rental is a
(05:48):
more natural approach for most people, whereas in Australia. Owning
your home is the big.
Speaker 3 (05:54):
Deal and that's certainly something that the Albanezi government has
been looking at, is this bill to rent scheme and
in challenging the idea of what the great Australian dream
might be, Peter Dutton has taken a different tact and
he's looking at cutting international student numbers, pledging to limit
(06:16):
the commencements to two hundred and forty thousand. That's some
thirty thousand fewer than what Labor is proposing. I know, Aubil,
you've said in the past that caps are a poor
policy tool.
Speaker 4 (06:26):
Why is that because the cap on each provider would
have to be firstly renegotiated every year, an extraordinarily complex
and difficult and fraud process where no one will agree
to the allocation they get given, and then we run
that process again every year with fourteen hundred providers. Absolute nightmare. Secondly,
(06:49):
caps don't provide certainty in terms of providers planning how
they should work their business for the next few years.
They have to wait every year for that fraud negotiation
on the cap. Thirdly, caps do nothing about the quality
of the student that we're attracting. They do nothing about
(07:09):
the quality of education provided. They do nothing about issues
of integrity in this space, and integrity is very important
in this space. They do nothing about targeting the skills
we need, and targeting skills is really important. I can't
think of a positive for CAPS.
Speaker 3 (07:25):
You hit on something really, really poignant there. I think
back to when I was at UNI and some of
my best mates were from other places, right, you know,
the US, Malaysia, Japan. Now, they all pretty much packed
up and left straight after graduation and to me, like,
at least on a personal level, that was kind of
sad to see those big brains just walking out the door.
Speaker 4 (07:45):
Now.
Speaker 3 (07:46):
I know, Australia's Group of Eight, like the big university
groups here, seem to be concerned about cutting these international
student numbers and the risk that poses to their reputation
as service providers. But well, should they be taking more
longer term view here?
Speaker 4 (08:02):
I think that need to be taking a longer term,
more holistic view. Ultimately, the government is responsible for managing
net overseas migration. That is the rate at which immigration
contributes to Australia's population growth, and overseas students must fit
within that as a subset to that. At the moment.
We have a situation where the universities are saying no, no, no, no,
(08:24):
we're separate from all that, we don't count in all
of that. Well, you can't pretend that that's not the case.
Students form part of Australia's population whilst they're here, and
if they remain here long term, they remain part of
the population. Universities can't ignore that. The big issue in
terms of students is the portion of students who get
left in immigration limbo. That is, people who have invested
(08:47):
a fortune in getting a pathway to permanent residence can't
get it either because they haven't studied the right area,
can't get a job in the right area, et cetera,
or there aren't enough places. So the stuff in that
situation and can't go home having spent one hundred and
fifty thousand dollars in trying to get permanent residents. The
(09:07):
size of that group is the public policy problem. If
you can keep the size that group small, the system's
running well. If the size that group becomes very large,
you're in trouble. And that's why the universities can't just
keep growing numbers unless they can keep the size of
that group relatively small?
Speaker 3 (09:26):
What percentage do students make of Australia's overall immigration picture?
Just so we can get some broader context here.
Speaker 4 (09:33):
So in anyone year, students represent between forty to fifty
percent wow net migration. It'ssive represent a bigger portion of
migration net migration than permanent residents or skilled temporary entrants,
or working holidaymakers or visitors.
Speaker 3 (09:48):
And even if we wanted to curb immigration substantially, is
that even possible? Are there just jobs that we can't
fill with Australians either you know of work age or
you know of students about to graduate? What are the
numbers that of tell us about that?
Speaker 4 (10:06):
There are fundamentally two reasons why we can't reduce immigration
to the kinds of levels that for example, mister Dutton
was talking about, and certainly not to the kinds of
levefols that Pauline Hanson and others are suggested. And that's
for two well, it's actually for three reasons. One, we
have a family migration program where we fundamentally say, if you,
(10:28):
as an Aussie, decide to marry a foreigner, we think
you have a right to live with that foreigner in Australia,
and I think most people think, oh yeah, not fair enough.
And that's why we have a law which says governments
can't prevent you if you've married your foreigner, that you
can't bring that person to Australia to live with you.
So that's a fundamental bedrock that you can't get around. Secondly,
(10:52):
you're absolutely right there are jobs that we cannot possibly
fill in the short term, and that will always be
the case because of the dynamic nature of the population
the economy. It's constantly changing and so demand constantly changes.
You can certainly tell which way demand is going to head.
I mean, it is absolutely inevitable that demand in the
(11:13):
health and aging space will just keep rising. It just
will not stop, and we can't pretend that it's going
to stop. The third reason is a demographic reason. The
lower that you drive net migration, the faster we age,
and the more quickly we bring forward the date in
which deaths exceed births in Australia. Over the next fifty years,
(11:38):
the vast majority of countries on the planet will reach
a point where deaths exceed births. That is a situation
the human race has never before encountered. There will over
the next fifty years be an extraordinary competition for young,
skilled migrants in a context where the vast majority of
(12:01):
countries are facing a situation where deaths exceed births.
Speaker 3 (12:05):
And that's certainly the case in places like China too,
isn't it.
Speaker 4 (12:09):
A lot more countries will go there in the next
fifty years, including India.
Speaker 3 (12:15):
And when we come back, Australia isn't the only place
where immigration is playing a role in its elections. This
is the Bloomberg Australia Podcast and welcome back to the
Bloomberg Australia Podcast. You're here with me Rebecca Jones, and
I'm talking to Abbil Rivsey about migration policy ahead of
(12:36):
the Australian election. This is a special bonus episode, part
two of a series of exclusive sit downs with experts
around Australia. You can find last week's episode wherever you listen,
and indeed the complete archive of all our conversations there too. Now,
immigration policy is something that governments and people talk about
all over the world. We saw how it's showed up
in the exit of Canada's PM Justin Trudeau. For a
(13:00):
certain new slash old occupant in the White House well,
is there any part of our lives that Donald Trump
isn't affecting right now? Abbil, do you think that either
major party here in Australia is being influenced by Trump's
maga approach to migration and are we seeing that filter
through to the political debate here?
Speaker 4 (13:20):
Sadly, I think that is the case. I mean what
we're seeing is things like, as you're aware the previous
Trump administration, they want to implement a Muslim ban. How
you'd ever implement one of those? I have absolutely no idea.
And I managed the austral his migration system for a decade.
It just wouldn't work. And that's what Trump found out,
and he moved to a different sort of ban where
(13:42):
he banned people from certain countries, but even that was
limited in how it worked. I suspect he will now.
His administration is now taking an approach where they are
less likely to observe due process in terms of people's rights,
and people will get deported, people get refused, people will
(14:05):
get turned around at the airport for reasons that are
quite bewildering. What it's leading to in America is that
the number of overseas visitors to America has plunged, not surprising,
but has plunged. And I think what that will do
is hurt America in many, many ways. Most directly and
immediately PEO will smash its international tourism industry. And I
(14:30):
don't think mister Trump thinks much about services exports, but
tourism is a major services export for the United States.
I would not want to be the owner of a hotel,
an airline, an attraction Disneyland right now in the United States.
Speaker 3 (14:47):
And do you think it is only a matter of
time before we start seeing those I mean, even ideologies
that Trump is offering filter through to our public discourse
here in Australia.
Speaker 4 (15:00):
I think that's right. I think, in particular the deportation
side of mister Trump's policies, I am surprised up till now.
Whilst Pauline Hanson has talked about mass deportation, mister Dutton
has not yet done that. Whether he decides to turn
to that later in the election, I don't know. I suspect,
(15:21):
having been Immigration minister, he understands how phenomenally difficult mass
deportation would be and that may lead to him not
going down that Trump's path. But if he gets desperate enough,
he may choose to do that. I think Australians should
understand that mass deportation is no matter how attractive you
(15:42):
think it is, it is extraordinarily difficult, and mister Trump
is gradually working that out.
Speaker 3 (15:48):
Do you think that leading up to May third, that
immigration is going to be one of those key influences
that motivate Australians to vote one way or the other.
It strikes me as interesting that you talk to a
group of younger people, say gen Z, first time voters,
would they be able to tell you? I know, you
(16:11):
know the answer? Who coined the phrase stop the votes?
Is the level of education and productive public debate around
these sort of issues enough for Australians to make an
inform decision come voting day or should we be doing more?
Speaker 4 (16:27):
I think, on average around the world, ossies aren't too
bad at understanding immigration. There's a reasonably good because we've
been doing it since World War Two at an extraordinary level,
and so Australians have understood it. Having said that, our
politicians for the last twenty years appear to have given
up on the idea of explaining the rationale of Australia's
immigration policy. To the public. I recall Philip Braddock used
(16:51):
to it every year religiously go around the country running
town hall meetings. Incident wasn't that used in those days
explain immigration policy. And he would sit there for an
hour an hour and a half taking questions on immigration
policy and explaining it to Australians. And there used to
be lots of media those at those town hall type
(17:13):
meetings and that helped I think Australians understand over the
last twenty years, our politicians have become very timid about
explaining the rationale for immigration policy to the Australian public.
As a result, I think there probably is a portion
of the population that is now quite ignorant on how
it all works.
Speaker 3 (17:34):
So, as someone finally who has led Australia's migration program
four years has studied it for even longer, if you
were still running the migration program up, well, what advice
would you give Peter Dutton and Anthony albineasy.
Speaker 4 (17:50):
I would love it if either of them would make
a commitment to saying we are going to have a
rational immigration policy, to commission proper research into what our
long term net migration level should be, and we are
going to put in place arrangements to ensure Australians understand
(18:11):
the target, that we have a framework for delivering the target,
and that we have a single minister responsible for delivering
that target. That would be a great outcome, I think,
because it would give the Australian public confidence that the
government is managing the program in our national interests and
that's what we desperately.
Speaker 3 (18:33):
Some great insight there are bought so great to chat today.
Thank you for joining me.
Speaker 4 (18:38):
You're welcome, Rebecca, and thank.
Speaker 3 (18:39):
You for listening to the Bloomberg Australia podcast. I'm Rebecca Jones.
This episode is recorded on the traditional lands of the
Wolvuntary and Daryl Wall People. It was produced by Paul
Allen and edited by Chris Burke, Anthley Chandler and Amy Bainbridge.
Don't forget to follow and review the show wherever you
get your podcasts, and sign up out to Bloomberg's free
(19:01):
daily newsletter, Australia Briefing. Go to Bloomberg dot com to subscribe.
We have to have a properly managed migration program. In
terms of the permanent migration program, which is running at about
one hundred and eighty five thousand a year now, but
we will reduce that to one hundred and forty thousand.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
The biggest thing that you could do area where you
could reduce the amount is in students because some of that, frankly,
was being abused and we want people to come here
who are involved in construction.
Speaker 3 (00:26):
Hello. I'm Rebecca Jones, and welcome to the second in
our series of bonus episodes of the Bloomberg Australia podcast,
coming to your earbuds every Tuesday's we count down to
the Australian federal election. Each week we scour the nation
for the sharpest takes on the biggest issues that will
decide what box Ossie voters will check come May third. Today.
(00:48):
To help me unpack the issue of immigration and how
that may play out in the coming election, I have
one of the best qualified people for the job, doctor
Abilt Rivesey, who holds a PhD in immergration policy from
the University of Melbourne and was a senior executive and
then the Deputy Secretary at the Department of Immigration, where
(01:08):
he worked for more than sixteen years.
Speaker 4 (01:11):
Up. Well, welcome, thank you, Rebecca.
Speaker 3 (01:13):
So let's start with the basics. We've seen an uptick
in immigration since the pandemic. Why has that happened?
Speaker 4 (01:21):
It happened for a couple of reasons. The first was,
prior to COVID the government had put in place policies
that were steadily leading to an increase in overseas students
coming to Australia. During COVID, and particularly towards the end
of COVID, the government put in place a number of
policies that really really would have accelerated immigration net migration
(01:45):
if there was a strong labor mark, and those two
things coincided, and the moment they coincided, we got the
zoom in immigration that we got as soon as international
borders reopened. In fact, the labor market was so strong
through twenty twenty two that mister Dutton in September twenty
(02:05):
twenty two said we do need to increase the level
of migration, but he was skeptical the government could achieve
the increase quickly enough, and it was only six to
twelve months after that that mister Dutton was saying Oh,
the immigration numbers are totally out of control. How could
this have happened? Well, you know, it was pretty obvious
(02:27):
why it happened, and.
Speaker 3 (02:28):
I think it's been quite interesting what has dominated the
news cycle since the pandemic and one of the key things.
You can't pick up a newspaper, log on to a
news website without seeing the words cost of living crisis
and housing crisis. I want to talk a little bit
about the interconnectedness of policy, specifically about those two elements,
(02:48):
immigration and housing. I think anyone with even a cursory
understanding of policy would guess that it's not a linear
equation right where one family of immigrants he calls one
new house required. Can you break it down for me?
I'd also like to understand a little bit better anything
about that equation that is particularly unique to Australia.
Speaker 4 (03:11):
Well, different types of migrants have different demands on immigration
on housing. So for example, a working holidaymaker who tends
to travel quite a bit through Australia, particularly through regional Australia,
will tend to live in backpack or accommodation that most
dozzies probably wouldn't use overseas. Students similarly tend to congregate
around the CBD of our major cities, and they tend
(03:33):
to use apartments rather than suburban houses, so they have
again a different demand on housing. We then have family migrants,
predominantly's partners, dependent children, and parents who tend to live
with their sponsors, so they don't actually increase demand for housing.
So as you're breaking this down, you have to think
about the composition of the intake in terms of what
(03:56):
impact it will have on demand.
Speaker 3 (03:58):
In terms of the of housing required. Is it fair
to blame immigrants for the housing crisis? Are they the
cause of this? Even when we account for those ozzies
that go on their study abroad, working holidays overseas, fall
in love with a foreign person, want to marry them
(04:19):
and bring them back home, they probably won't be taking
up a whole other house. They may be moving in
with the parents or something like that. It's more complicated, though, right,
isn't it.
Speaker 4 (04:28):
Absolutely there are multiple drivers of our current housing crisis,
and as I think a number of analysts have written,
this has been coming at us for twenty thirty years.
The failure of governments to put in place adequate housing
policies to accommodate our growing population.
Speaker 3 (04:45):
Why can't they get it right?
Speaker 4 (04:47):
That's a very good question. I think part of the
problem is that housing policy is predominantly the responsibility of
state governments, whereas immigration policy is predominantly the responsibility of
the Common Laald government, and the two always have difficulties
in coordinating.
Speaker 3 (05:04):
And that is something I would imagine is quite unique
to Australia as well. We do have this system of
state and federal and local councils governing all different bits
of our lives, quite unique to Australia. Is there any
examples from a broader I know you're a scholar of
immigration too, that's what your whole PhDs in right that
we could potentially use for inspiration. Has anyone else got
(05:26):
it right where we haven't?
Speaker 4 (05:28):
Well, certainly if you look at how governments in Scandinavia
have managed this, they have managed it. They've had relatively
rapid population growth too, but they have not had the
housing crisis that we have had, and their housing policies
are really quite different to Australia's, as is the situation
in most of Europe, where long term rental is a
(05:48):
more natural approach for most people, whereas in Australia. Owning
your home is the big.
Speaker 3 (05:54):
Deal and that's certainly something that the Albanezi government has
been looking at, is this bill to rent scheme and
in challenging the idea of what the great Australian dream
might be, Peter Dutton has taken a different tact and
he's looking at cutting international student numbers, pledging to limit
(06:16):
the commencements to two hundred and forty thousand. That's some
thirty thousand fewer than what Labor is proposing. I know, Aubil,
you've said in the past that caps are a poor
policy tool.
Speaker 4 (06:26):
Why is that because the cap on each provider would
have to be firstly renegotiated every year, an extraordinarily complex
and difficult and fraud process where no one will agree
to the allocation they get given, and then we run
that process again every year with fourteen hundred providers. Absolute nightmare. Secondly,
(06:49):
caps don't provide certainty in terms of providers planning how
they should work their business for the next few years.
They have to wait every year for that fraud negotiation
on the cap. Thirdly, caps do nothing about the quality
of the student that we're attracting. They do nothing about
(07:09):
the quality of education provided. They do nothing about issues
of integrity in this space, and integrity is very important
in this space. They do nothing about targeting the skills
we need, and targeting skills is really important. I can't
think of a positive for CAPS.
Speaker 3 (07:25):
You hit on something really, really poignant there. I think
back to when I was at UNI and some of
my best mates were from other places, right, you know,
the US, Malaysia, Japan. Now, they all pretty much packed
up and left straight after graduation and to me, like,
at least on a personal level, that was kind of
sad to see those big brains just walking out the door.
Speaker 4 (07:45):
Now.
Speaker 3 (07:46):
I know, Australia's Group of Eight, like the big university
groups here, seem to be concerned about cutting these international
student numbers and the risk that poses to their reputation
as service providers. But well, should they be taking more
longer term view here?
Speaker 4 (08:02):
I think that need to be taking a longer term,
more holistic view. Ultimately, the government is responsible for managing
net overseas migration. That is the rate at which immigration
contributes to Australia's population growth, and overseas students must fit
within that as a subset to that. At the moment.
We have a situation where the universities are saying no, no, no, no,
(08:24):
we're separate from all that, we don't count in all
of that. Well, you can't pretend that that's not the case.
Students form part of Australia's population whilst they're here, and
if they remain here long term, they remain part of
the population. Universities can't ignore that. The big issue in
terms of students is the portion of students who get
left in immigration limbo. That is, people who have invested
(08:47):
a fortune in getting a pathway to permanent residence can't
get it either because they haven't studied the right area,
can't get a job in the right area, et cetera,
or there aren't enough places. So the stuff in that
situation and can't go home having spent one hundred and
fifty thousand dollars in trying to get permanent residents. The
(09:07):
size of that group is the public policy problem. If
you can keep the size that group small, the system's
running well. If the size that group becomes very large,
you're in trouble. And that's why the universities can't just
keep growing numbers unless they can keep the size of
that group relatively small?
Speaker 3 (09:26):
What percentage do students make of Australia's overall immigration picture?
Just so we can get some broader context here.
Speaker 4 (09:33):
So in anyone year, students represent between forty to fifty
percent wow net migration. It'ssive represent a bigger portion of
migration net migration than permanent residents or skilled temporary entrants,
or working holidaymakers or visitors.
Speaker 3 (09:48):
And even if we wanted to curb immigration substantially, is
that even possible? Are there just jobs that we can't
fill with Australians either you know of work age or
you know of students about to graduate? What are the
numbers that of tell us about that?
Speaker 4 (10:06):
There are fundamentally two reasons why we can't reduce immigration
to the kinds of levels that for example, mister Dutton
was talking about, and certainly not to the kinds of
levefols that Pauline Hanson and others are suggested. And that's
for two well, it's actually for three reasons. One, we
have a family migration program where we fundamentally say, if you,
(10:28):
as an Aussie, decide to marry a foreigner, we think
you have a right to live with that foreigner in Australia,
and I think most people think, oh yeah, not fair enough.
And that's why we have a law which says governments
can't prevent you if you've married your foreigner, that you
can't bring that person to Australia to live with you.
So that's a fundamental bedrock that you can't get around. Secondly,
(10:52):
you're absolutely right there are jobs that we cannot possibly
fill in the short term, and that will always be
the case because of the dynamic nature of the population
the economy. It's constantly changing and so demand constantly changes.
You can certainly tell which way demand is going to head.
I mean, it is absolutely inevitable that demand in the
(11:13):
health and aging space will just keep rising. It just
will not stop, and we can't pretend that it's going
to stop. The third reason is a demographic reason. The
lower that you drive net migration, the faster we age,
and the more quickly we bring forward the date in
which deaths exceed births in Australia. Over the next fifty years,
(11:38):
the vast majority of countries on the planet will reach
a point where deaths exceed births. That is a situation
the human race has never before encountered. There will over
the next fifty years be an extraordinary competition for young,
skilled migrants in a context where the vast majority of
(12:01):
countries are facing a situation where deaths exceed births.
Speaker 3 (12:05):
And that's certainly the case in places like China too,
isn't it.
Speaker 4 (12:09):
A lot more countries will go there in the next
fifty years, including India.
Speaker 3 (12:15):
And when we come back, Australia isn't the only place
where immigration is playing a role in its elections. This
is the Bloomberg Australia Podcast and welcome back to the
Bloomberg Australia Podcast. You're here with me Rebecca Jones, and
I'm talking to Abbil Rivsey about migration policy ahead of
(12:36):
the Australian election. This is a special bonus episode, part
two of a series of exclusive sit downs with experts
around Australia. You can find last week's episode wherever you listen,
and indeed the complete archive of all our conversations there too. Now,
immigration policy is something that governments and people talk about
all over the world. We saw how it's showed up
in the exit of Canada's PM Justin Trudeau. For a
(13:00):
certain new slash old occupant in the White House well,
is there any part of our lives that Donald Trump
isn't affecting right now? Abbil, do you think that either
major party here in Australia is being influenced by Trump's
maga approach to migration and are we seeing that filter
through to the political debate here?
Speaker 4 (13:20):
Sadly, I think that is the case. I mean what
we're seeing is things like, as you're aware the previous
Trump administration, they want to implement a Muslim ban. How
you'd ever implement one of those? I have absolutely no idea.
And I managed the austral his migration system for a decade.
It just wouldn't work. And that's what Trump found out,
and he moved to a different sort of ban where
(13:42):
he banned people from certain countries, but even that was
limited in how it worked. I suspect he will now.
His administration is now taking an approach where they are
less likely to observe due process in terms of people's rights,
and people will get deported, people get refused, people will
(14:05):
get turned around at the airport for reasons that are
quite bewildering. What it's leading to in America is that
the number of overseas visitors to America has plunged, not surprising,
but has plunged. And I think what that will do
is hurt America in many, many ways. Most directly and
immediately PEO will smash its international tourism industry. And I
(14:30):
don't think mister Trump thinks much about services exports, but
tourism is a major services export for the United States.
I would not want to be the owner of a hotel,
an airline, an attraction Disneyland right now in the United States.
Speaker 3 (14:47):
And do you think it is only a matter of
time before we start seeing those I mean, even ideologies
that Trump is offering filter through to our public discourse
here in Australia.
Speaker 4 (15:00):
I think that's right. I think, in particular the deportation
side of mister Trump's policies, I am surprised up till now.
Whilst Pauline Hanson has talked about mass deportation, mister Dutton
has not yet done that. Whether he decides to turn
to that later in the election, I don't know. I suspect,
(15:21):
having been Immigration minister, he understands how phenomenally difficult mass
deportation would be and that may lead to him not
going down that Trump's path. But if he gets desperate enough,
he may choose to do that. I think Australians should
understand that mass deportation is no matter how attractive you
(15:42):
think it is, it is extraordinarily difficult, and mister Trump
is gradually working that out.
Speaker 3 (15:48):
Do you think that leading up to May third, that
immigration is going to be one of those key influences
that motivate Australians to vote one way or the other.
It strikes me as interesting that you talk to a
group of younger people, say gen Z, first time voters,
would they be able to tell you? I know, you
(16:11):
know the answer? Who coined the phrase stop the votes?
Is the level of education and productive public debate around
these sort of issues enough for Australians to make an
inform decision come voting day or should we be doing more?
Speaker 4 (16:27):
I think, on average around the world, ossies aren't too
bad at understanding immigration. There's a reasonably good because we've
been doing it since World War Two at an extraordinary level,
and so Australians have understood it. Having said that, our
politicians for the last twenty years appear to have given
up on the idea of explaining the rationale of Australia's
immigration policy. To the public. I recall Philip Braddock used
(16:51):
to it every year religiously go around the country running
town hall meetings. Incident wasn't that used in those days
explain immigration policy. And he would sit there for an
hour an hour and a half taking questions on immigration
policy and explaining it to Australians. And there used to
be lots of media those at those town hall type
(17:13):
meetings and that helped I think Australians understand over the
last twenty years, our politicians have become very timid about
explaining the rationale for immigration policy to the Australian public.
As a result, I think there probably is a portion
of the population that is now quite ignorant on how
it all works.
Speaker 3 (17:34):
So, as someone finally who has led Australia's migration program
four years has studied it for even longer, if you
were still running the migration program up, well, what advice
would you give Peter Dutton and Anthony albineasy.
Speaker 4 (17:50):
I would love it if either of them would make
a commitment to saying we are going to have a
rational immigration policy, to commission proper research into what our
long term net migration level should be, and we are
going to put in place arrangements to ensure Australians understand
(18:11):
the target, that we have a framework for delivering the target,
and that we have a single minister responsible for delivering
that target. That would be a great outcome, I think,
because it would give the Australian public confidence that the
government is managing the program in our national interests and
that's what we desperately.
Speaker 3 (18:33):
Some great insight there are bought so great to chat today.
Thank you for joining me.
Speaker 4 (18:38):
You're welcome, Rebecca, and thank.
Speaker 3 (18:39):
You for listening to the Bloomberg Australia podcast. I'm Rebecca Jones.
This episode is recorded on the traditional lands of the
Wolvuntary and Daryl Wall People. It was produced by Paul
Allen and edited by Chris Burke, Anthley Chandler and Amy Bainbridge.
Don't forget to follow and review the show wherever you
get your podcasts, and sign up out to Bloomberg's free
(19:01):
daily newsletter, Australia Briefing. Go to Bloomberg dot com to subscribe.
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