April 2, 2025 • 18 mins
Australians are set to go to the polls on May 3, with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese going head-to-head with opposition leader Peter Dutton in a knife-edge campaign which could potentially result in a minority government.
This week on the podcast, host Rebecca Jones asks Bloomberg News government reporter Ben Westcott about the key issues to be debated in the coming weeks, from tax cuts to Donald Trump, and the key things you should know about the battle for the top job.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
This election is a choice between Labour's plan to keep
building or Peter Dutton's promise to cut.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
That is the choice.
Speaker 3 (00:12):
I don't believe that we can simply afford to continue
down the current path, and that means that we can't
afford three more years of labor. What is at stake,
who should we be keeping an eye on, and what's
likely to happen. It's time to ask all of these questions, because,
believe it or not, we're already approaching the end of
week one of Australia's thirty six day federal election campaign
(00:36):
to decide who will lead the nation for the next
three years. Hello, I'm Rebecca Jones and welcome to the
Bloomberg Australia Podcast. Last week the countdown officially began for
what's looking like a knife edge federal election on May
the third. If you flick on the tally, you'll be
blasted with political ads. Take your dog for a walk.
(00:58):
You're going to pass by of campaign posters, hopefully ones
that haven't been to facedoor nicked.
Speaker 2 (01:05):
So hang on, mate, but what are you doing? I'm
taking the sign out, Yeah, bega Baba's I'm.
Speaker 1 (01:11):
Taking the signout.
Speaker 3 (01:13):
Nobody can tell me how this is all going to
play out. The only thing I do know is that
we're going to be chomping on our democracy sausages before
we know it. So let's cut through the noise and
lay out exactly what the top things Australians and those
invested here need to know. Ben Wescott is Bloomberg's man
in the Canberra Press Gallery and he joins me today.
(01:33):
Good a, Ben, great to have you back.
Speaker 2 (01:35):
Thanks for having me back back now.
Speaker 3 (01:37):
This will be the second election campaign you've reported on
for Bloomberg News here in Australia. What's the vibe like
in Canberra and how is that different to twenty twenty two.
Speaker 2 (01:49):
Look, there were two real differences between this election and
the last one. The first one is that the last
election was really seen from the offset as a change election.
The Liberal National Coalition government, our center right party was
nine years old, and it's always a big ask to
go for a fourth term in power. So there was
a feeling that, even though it was not something that
(02:12):
can be taken for granted, that it was probably a
change election. The other thing, however, was that the ghost
of the twenty nineteen election really hung over the whole proceedings.
That was an election similar to the twenty sixteen vote
in the US, where Australians had expected a Labor win,
expected the then six year old coalition government to be
(02:33):
taken out of power, and then in a shock turn
of events on election day, Morrison won his miracle election win.
So there was always this feeling around twenty twenty two
that you couldn't necessarily trust the polls, you couldn't necessarily
read the voters, and anything was possible. This time around
three years later, after Albernizi won, there is a feeling
(02:53):
more that you can trust the polls and that people
are more confident that we're probably going to see a
second term mister Anthony Albernezi. But as you said, it's
a knife edge vote, and if the polls keep trending
in Albanese's direction, people will in the Labor campaign will
be relaxing more. But we'll have to see. It's a
long five week election campaign for Australians to sit through.
Speaker 3 (03:15):
We already know a lot about the two main contenders
in this race, don't we. They've been everywhere in recent
weeks leading up to last Friday's election date announcement Ben
can you run us through the key big policies that
Anthony Albanesi and Peter Dutton will be going head to
head on.
Speaker 2 (03:33):
It's funny because the twenty twenty two election at the
time was very criticized for a lack of big ideas,
but looking back at it now, it almost seems like
a huge issue election. Back then, people were talking about
climate change a lot, we were talking about Indigenous rights
and a huge range of topics. Now this election is
really about cost of living. It's about after three years
(03:56):
of high inflation, high interest rates, high energy prices, which
party can do the most for Australians to help them
in their hip pocket. That's why one of the biggest
differences already that's emerged is between Anthony Albernesi's government, who's
promising a small tax cut in the coming three years
if they're re elected, and Peter Dutton's opposition they's promising
(04:18):
to remove that tax cut and instead cut the fuel excise.
There's other forms of dispute between the two. Peter Dutton
has said he'll put in place of gas reserve policy
if he comes to power saving in his words, more
Australian gas for Australians, and Anthony Abernzi has promised lots
more money for healthcare, including about nine billion dollars for
(04:38):
Medicare to improve the number of free health appointments for
Australian So those are sort of the lines we're seeing
at this stage, slowly developing over the course of the campaign.
Speaker 3 (04:48):
So Ben those are some really key points of debates
that we can expect to see come out in the
coming weeks. Let's pause for a second here and take
a listen to the ABC's and on the state of
Parliament as we head into this election campaign period.
Speaker 1 (05:05):
The Labour goes into the election with seventy eight seats,
the Coalition fifty seven. Theres one or two members left,
but fifty seven is their starting point and there's fifteen
on the cross bench. The swings that are needed the
Labor Party, a swing of about one percent would probably
deprive it of its majority. A swing of about three
and a half percent might allow the Coalition to end
(05:26):
up in more seats than Labor. But the swing for
the Coalition to each maturity government is beyond five percent,
so it's quite a substantial effort for them to get
into government.
Speaker 3 (05:35):
So given what we heard there, Ben, What are the
most likely outcomes that we're looking at for the evening
of May third, or indeed in the following days. If
there isn't a clear result, could Australia have a minority government?
Speaker 2 (05:49):
I think as a very strong likelihood of that, just
given the fact that both parties are seeing their primary vote,
that's people who are voting for them first, very very
low compared to historic results. If we look back to
elections in the seventies and the eighties, Labor and the
Liberal Party would see their votes in the forty percents easy,
(06:12):
sometimes as high as fifty percent. Now they're both scrounging
around thirty three to thirty seven percent. And that's why
at the last election we saw a record third of
all votes go to parties who are not one of
the two major parties, and I think that is a
clear indication of a trend in Australian politics. There's no
(06:34):
doubt that out of the last five elections, four have
been decided by just a handful of seats just in
either direction, and there's no reason to think that this
one will not be exactly the same. Now, what does
that mean for Peter Dutton and Anthony Albernesi. It means
that probably after election night they're going to have to
approach someone on the cross branch. It's a very broad
(06:57):
cross bench at this stage, but they'll have toro some
minor parties or independent lawmakers to get their support to
form government.
Speaker 3 (07:05):
And who are these actors who could be the king
makers if you like, if things are really tight.
Speaker 2 (07:12):
Well, one thing that is to both of the Prime
Minister and the Opposition leader's advantage is that they have
such a broad crossbench at this stage that they need
to find support. There's a lot of options for them.
So that goes from everything from on the left we
have the minor party, the Greens, who have got currently
four lawmakers and at least one will still be in
(07:34):
the House after the election. They then go into the
teal Independence, who are more centrist lawmakers who focus on
climate action and political integrity. There is a large number
of them, before we move to more populoist independence and
then finally right wing lawmakers like Bob Katter from Queensland,
(07:56):
who I'm sure would leap at the chance to support
a Peter Dutton guff. So they both have a wide
range of potential options for their minority governments should they
fall just a few sheets short of that majority.
Speaker 3 (08:10):
So you're saying it could come from anywhere, right, could
come from the Greens, could come from one of the
independents on both sides all the way to Bob catter.
Speaker 2 (08:18):
All we know is that Albanize will not be forming
any coalitions. He was a member of the Gillard minority
government in twenty ten. He was the Manager of the
House back then, and he knows the poisonous way in
which the Labor Greens Formal Pact was used against both
parties at the in the following three years and in
(08:41):
the election after that. So he will not be signing
any formal agreements. That doesn't mean he won't bet on
the Green support to pass laws in the Lower House,
particularly since Peter Dutton has said he will not be
going to the Greens and the Greens have said they'll
not be going to Peter Dutton.
Speaker 3 (08:57):
Speaking of Greens, you mentioned gas earlier, and that's one
of the big points of difference between the parties at
this stage. Can you talk me through Peter Dutton's plan there.
It's really upset the industry with the fact that you
know it's going to affect existing.
Speaker 2 (09:12):
Projects, right, yes, So Peter Dutton has said that if
he wins the election and he'll put in place a
gas reserve policy on the East Coast. There's already one
in place on the West Coast, but there never has
been one on the East Coast, and that's the heavily
populated part of Australia, with Sydney and Melbourne and Brisbane. Now,
under this policy it would mean that producers would have
(09:32):
to put aside a certain amount of their gas for
domestic consumption. Peter Dutton has spoken about fifty to one
hundred peda duels, or about ten to twenty percent of
the total gas needed by Australian consumers. Now in compared
to Australia's gas exports, that's an absolutely tiny amount we
export over a thousand pedadaeles, but it will still make
(09:57):
a mark, particularly for manufacturers and for companies on Australia's
East Coast and of course consumers. Now, the labor they
say that they've already convinced the gas companies to put
aside at least this amount of gas in past years
and in coming years, and therefore there's no need for
a gas reserve They also point to the domestic gas
(10:18):
trigger they have embedded in the laws, which means that
if there is a shortfall, they can demand that gas
companies will make up that shortfall from their exported gas.
But it's not the same thing as a reserve. The
final thing I would also say is that we've already
seen some response from Korea, which has reacted somewhat negatively
(10:40):
to the proposal. Given that Japan and South Korea are
so dependent on Australia's natural gas for their own industries, is.
Speaker 3 (10:48):
It going to be enough to have these voters that
you know, the big business, the gas companies, to switch
their vote that it like this plan of Peter Dunton's.
Speaker 2 (10:58):
I think that there's a real risk for Peter Dutton
that if he doesn't put out some very serious modeling
on how much this will reduce energy prices and how
much this will save consumers, they will just see instead
the Labor's the Labor Party's tax plan, which it has
(11:18):
very clearly how much money they'll save, and think that
is a more appealing quantity. Now there's a reason why
the Coalition is reluctant to put out their modeling of
exactly how much it will save because at the last election,
Anthony Alberzi promised a two hundred and seventy five dollars
cut to power bills and that never eventuated, partly through
international factors, partly through the varieties of domestic demand. So
(11:44):
they're reluctant to hang their own flag on the same
post that Anthony Aberzi was somewhat thwarded by. Nonetheless, I
think if there is not more clear numbers for Australian voters,
they might not be too enthrall by this policy.
Speaker 3 (12:00):
Now then you mentioned the cost of living crisis before,
and we know that the Reserve Bank of Australia has
started to cut raids, which has no doubt helped Labour's
popularity a bit. How is the debate on interest rates
and inflation likely to play out in the campaign.
Speaker 2 (12:18):
Well, if it stays as it currently is, then it
will probably be a net benefit to the Prime minister.
As you said, we've see the interest rates come down,
we've started to see inflation come down as well, and
he talks a lot about how it's now half what
it was when they came to office. And there's no
doubt that the last monthly figures were inside the Reserve
(12:40):
Bank's target ban. That being said, there will be one
very important read of inflation and the week before the election,
I believe on the thirtieth of April. On that day,
if inflation moves in the wrong direction, that will be
used as a stick by Peter Dutton to batter Anthony
Albneasy all the way to poll on Saturday. And it
(13:01):
could be a real fifth week surprise if it is
a nasty turn on inflation. That being said, a result
in the opposite direction, one that was weaker than expected
and promised more cuts immediately after the election with a
Reserve Bank meeting in May, that would be a real
wind at Albanese's back as he heads, in his words,
(13:21):
into the fourth quarter.
Speaker 3 (13:23):
Quite a delicate game, isn't it. And when we come back,
we discussed the elephant in the room, what does Trump
and his tariff may have mean for the election and
what are our biggest companies hoping will happen. This is
the Bloomberg Australia Podcast. Welcome back to the Bloomberg Australia Podcast.
(13:44):
You're here with me Rebecca Jones, and I'm talking to
Ben Westcott, Bloomberg's Canbra based government reporter Ben Donald Trump
and his tariffs are making our mornings pretty chaotic in
the Bloomberg bureaus these days. I imagine they aren't a
huge amount of fun for Anthony Albanesi either, who is
seen as best I guess given their track records to
(14:07):
handle Trump with all of his demands and day to
day pronouncements that are causing all of this global volatility.
Speaker 2 (14:14):
Well, former Prime Minister Malcolm Turm will put it very
well this week when he's hur at the National Press
Club that both Albanzi and Dutton have got their own
strengths and their own weaknesses when it comes to dealing
with Trump. So to start with Dunton, he has a
very good ideological links to Trump. You know, he is
one of his biggest supporters. Is Australian billionaire Gina Reinhart,
(14:36):
who is another big supporter of Trump's and was actually
at mar Laga on election night, So there's instantly a
sense of rapport between the two leaders. The downside, however,
is that ideologically Dunton's base will also be quite sympathetic
to Trump, which will maintain that if Dunton needs to
(14:58):
push back, it could be hard for him politically then
already we're starting to see that over the course of
the campaign that Dunton has to somehow distance himself from
Trump given the fact that the US president is not
terribly popular in Australia, while at the same time keeping
his ideological base on side. On the other hand, Primeister
(15:19):
at the Alberzi is not an ideological bedfellow of Donald Trump,
and that would leave him instantly a disadvantage. However, he
has no reason not to be tough on Trump other
than the fact that he has to be has to
balance Australia's national interest. His base would probably prefer him
to be a lot tougher on the US president, and
already we've seen some strong results from Alberzi. Now, although
(15:41):
we didn't get the exemption on aluminum and steel tariffs,
Trump described Albanese as a very fine man after just
two phone calls, something which I think not very many
people had really been expecting. And I think whoever wins
the election will still face an upheld battle to take
on Trump given the current disruptions in the US.
Speaker 3 (16:00):
So Ben we've talked so far about the key policy
positions that we know about on both sides, how interest
rates and the cost of living are also key influences
and how both Dutton and Albanesi may differ in ways
to handle whatever's next to come out of the White House.
But Ben, this is a Bloomberg podcast, so we do
need to talk about one other really important group here,
(16:23):
and that's big business. Who will Australian corporates be hoping
to see in power after all this is done. What
are the people you've been talking to for your reporting
telling you about that.
Speaker 2 (16:34):
This is one of the really interesting parts of this
election and it sort of reaches a turning point that
we've seen coming in Australian politics for some time, but
really kind of comes to fruition in twenty twenty five.
So for many, many years, the Liberal National Coalition was
the natural party of big business and it was seen
as that by voters. But there's no doubt that this
(16:57):
election marks a real turn away from that. Peter Dutton
is threatening to break up major companies if they don't
do the right thing by Australian consumers, a very unliberal
way of handling extray's economic policy. So, for instance, supermarkets
have been threatened by the Coalition with breakup if they
(17:18):
do not properly pass on price reductions to consumers, and
even potentially people like insurance companies have been threatened with
action if they don't pass on reductions in prices to consumers.
So this is a very different Liberal party to the
one we've seen in the past. This is as they
would describe at the Party of small Business rather than
(17:39):
the Party of big business. Now that being said, generally
in Australia, big business would probably still prefer a Dutton
government to an Albersi government, but there are other things
which need to be taken into account as well. Many
companies have started to bet on the energy transition to
renewable energy, given the fact that when Labor came to
power they were going to be there for some time.
(18:01):
If they were booted, that would require a big rethink.
Given Dunton has shown that he's not as keen on
the renewal energy transition as Anthony Abernezi and the Labor Party,
thereby requiring a lot of chaos.
Speaker 3 (18:13):
And by the sounds of all that, ben maybe the
Labor liberal duopoly could also be busted after this election.
Thank you for joining me and thank you for listening
to the Bloomberg Australia podcast I'm Rebecca Jones. This episode
was recorded on the traditional lands of the Wundry and
Nullable People. It was produced by Paul Allen and edited
(18:34):
by Chris Burke and Ainsley Chandler. Don't forget to follow
and review the show wherever you get your podcasts, and
sign up for Bloomberg's free daily Newshetter Australia Briefing. Go
to bloomberg dot com to subscribe.
This election is a choice between Labour's plan to keep
building or Peter Dutton's promise to cut.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
That is the choice.
Speaker 3 (00:12):
I don't believe that we can simply afford to continue
down the current path, and that means that we can't
afford three more years of labor. What is at stake,
who should we be keeping an eye on, and what's
likely to happen. It's time to ask all of these questions, because,
believe it or not, we're already approaching the end of
week one of Australia's thirty six day federal election campaign
(00:36):
to decide who will lead the nation for the next
three years. Hello, I'm Rebecca Jones and welcome to the
Bloomberg Australia Podcast. Last week the countdown officially began for
what's looking like a knife edge federal election on May
the third. If you flick on the tally, you'll be
blasted with political ads. Take your dog for a walk.
(00:58):
You're going to pass by of campaign posters, hopefully ones
that haven't been to facedoor nicked.
Speaker 2 (01:05):
So hang on, mate, but what are you doing? I'm
taking the sign out, Yeah, bega Baba's I'm.
Speaker 1 (01:11):
Taking the signout.
Speaker 3 (01:13):
Nobody can tell me how this is all going to
play out. The only thing I do know is that
we're going to be chomping on our democracy sausages before
we know it. So let's cut through the noise and
lay out exactly what the top things Australians and those
invested here need to know. Ben Wescott is Bloomberg's man
in the Canberra Press Gallery and he joins me today.
(01:33):
Good a, Ben, great to have you back.
Speaker 2 (01:35):
Thanks for having me back back now.
Speaker 3 (01:37):
This will be the second election campaign you've reported on
for Bloomberg News here in Australia. What's the vibe like
in Canberra and how is that different to twenty twenty two.
Speaker 2 (01:49):
Look, there were two real differences between this election and
the last one. The first one is that the last
election was really seen from the offset as a change election.
The Liberal National Coalition government, our center right party was
nine years old, and it's always a big ask to
go for a fourth term in power. So there was
a feeling that, even though it was not something that
(02:12):
can be taken for granted, that it was probably a
change election. The other thing, however, was that the ghost
of the twenty nineteen election really hung over the whole proceedings.
That was an election similar to the twenty sixteen vote
in the US, where Australians had expected a Labor win,
expected the then six year old coalition government to be
(02:33):
taken out of power, and then in a shock turn
of events on election day, Morrison won his miracle election win.
So there was always this feeling around twenty twenty two
that you couldn't necessarily trust the polls, you couldn't necessarily
read the voters, and anything was possible. This time around
three years later, after Albernizi won, there is a feeling
(02:53):
more that you can trust the polls and that people
are more confident that we're probably going to see a
second term mister Anthony Albernezi. But as you said, it's
a knife edge vote, and if the polls keep trending
in Albanese's direction, people will in the Labor campaign will
be relaxing more. But we'll have to see. It's a
long five week election campaign for Australians to sit through.
Speaker 3 (03:15):
We already know a lot about the two main contenders
in this race, don't we. They've been everywhere in recent
weeks leading up to last Friday's election date announcement Ben
can you run us through the key big policies that
Anthony Albanesi and Peter Dutton will be going head to
head on.
Speaker 2 (03:33):
It's funny because the twenty twenty two election at the
time was very criticized for a lack of big ideas,
but looking back at it now, it almost seems like
a huge issue election. Back then, people were talking about
climate change a lot, we were talking about Indigenous rights
and a huge range of topics. Now this election is
really about cost of living. It's about after three years
(03:56):
of high inflation, high interest rates, high energy prices, which
party can do the most for Australians to help them
in their hip pocket. That's why one of the biggest
differences already that's emerged is between Anthony Albernesi's government, who's
promising a small tax cut in the coming three years
if they're re elected, and Peter Dutton's opposition they's promising
(04:18):
to remove that tax cut and instead cut the fuel excise.
There's other forms of dispute between the two. Peter Dutton
has said he'll put in place of gas reserve policy
if he comes to power saving in his words, more
Australian gas for Australians, and Anthony Abernzi has promised lots
more money for healthcare, including about nine billion dollars for
(04:38):
Medicare to improve the number of free health appointments for
Australian So those are sort of the lines we're seeing
at this stage, slowly developing over the course of the campaign.
Speaker 3 (04:48):
So Ben those are some really key points of debates
that we can expect to see come out in the
coming weeks. Let's pause for a second here and take
a listen to the ABC's and on the state of
Parliament as we head into this election campaign period.
Speaker 1 (05:05):
The Labour goes into the election with seventy eight seats,
the Coalition fifty seven. Theres one or two members left,
but fifty seven is their starting point and there's fifteen
on the cross bench. The swings that are needed the
Labor Party, a swing of about one percent would probably
deprive it of its majority. A swing of about three
and a half percent might allow the Coalition to end
(05:26):
up in more seats than Labor. But the swing for
the Coalition to each maturity government is beyond five percent,
so it's quite a substantial effort for them to get
into government.
Speaker 3 (05:35):
So given what we heard there, Ben, What are the
most likely outcomes that we're looking at for the evening
of May third, or indeed in the following days. If
there isn't a clear result, could Australia have a minority government?
Speaker 2 (05:49):
I think as a very strong likelihood of that, just
given the fact that both parties are seeing their primary vote,
that's people who are voting for them first, very very
low compared to historic results. If we look back to
elections in the seventies and the eighties, Labor and the
Liberal Party would see their votes in the forty percents easy,
(06:12):
sometimes as high as fifty percent. Now they're both scrounging
around thirty three to thirty seven percent. And that's why
at the last election we saw a record third of
all votes go to parties who are not one of
the two major parties, and I think that is a
clear indication of a trend in Australian politics. There's no
(06:34):
doubt that out of the last five elections, four have
been decided by just a handful of seats just in
either direction, and there's no reason to think that this
one will not be exactly the same. Now, what does
that mean for Peter Dutton and Anthony Albernesi. It means
that probably after election night they're going to have to
approach someone on the cross branch. It's a very broad
(06:57):
cross bench at this stage, but they'll have toro some
minor parties or independent lawmakers to get their support to
form government.
Speaker 3 (07:05):
And who are these actors who could be the king
makers if you like, if things are really tight.
Speaker 2 (07:12):
Well, one thing that is to both of the Prime
Minister and the Opposition leader's advantage is that they have
such a broad crossbench at this stage that they need
to find support. There's a lot of options for them.
So that goes from everything from on the left we
have the minor party, the Greens, who have got currently
four lawmakers and at least one will still be in
(07:34):
the House after the election. They then go into the
teal Independence, who are more centrist lawmakers who focus on
climate action and political integrity. There is a large number
of them, before we move to more populoist independence and
then finally right wing lawmakers like Bob Katter from Queensland,
(07:56):
who I'm sure would leap at the chance to support
a Peter Dutton guff. So they both have a wide
range of potential options for their minority governments should they
fall just a few sheets short of that majority.
Speaker 3 (08:10):
So you're saying it could come from anywhere, right, could
come from the Greens, could come from one of the
independents on both sides all the way to Bob catter.
Speaker 2 (08:18):
All we know is that Albanize will not be forming
any coalitions. He was a member of the Gillard minority
government in twenty ten. He was the Manager of the
House back then, and he knows the poisonous way in
which the Labor Greens Formal Pact was used against both
parties at the in the following three years and in
(08:41):
the election after that. So he will not be signing
any formal agreements. That doesn't mean he won't bet on
the Green support to pass laws in the Lower House,
particularly since Peter Dutton has said he will not be
going to the Greens and the Greens have said they'll
not be going to Peter Dutton.
Speaker 3 (08:57):
Speaking of Greens, you mentioned gas earlier, and that's one
of the big points of difference between the parties at
this stage. Can you talk me through Peter Dutton's plan there.
It's really upset the industry with the fact that you
know it's going to affect existing.
Speaker 2 (09:12):
Projects, right, yes, So Peter Dutton has said that if
he wins the election and he'll put in place a
gas reserve policy on the East Coast. There's already one
in place on the West Coast, but there never has
been one on the East Coast, and that's the heavily
populated part of Australia, with Sydney and Melbourne and Brisbane. Now,
under this policy it would mean that producers would have
(09:32):
to put aside a certain amount of their gas for
domestic consumption. Peter Dutton has spoken about fifty to one
hundred peda duels, or about ten to twenty percent of
the total gas needed by Australian consumers. Now in compared
to Australia's gas exports, that's an absolutely tiny amount we
export over a thousand pedadaeles, but it will still make
(09:57):
a mark, particularly for manufacturers and for companies on Australia's
East Coast and of course consumers. Now, the labor they
say that they've already convinced the gas companies to put
aside at least this amount of gas in past years
and in coming years, and therefore there's no need for
a gas reserve They also point to the domestic gas
(10:18):
trigger they have embedded in the laws, which means that
if there is a shortfall, they can demand that gas
companies will make up that shortfall from their exported gas.
But it's not the same thing as a reserve. The
final thing I would also say is that we've already
seen some response from Korea, which has reacted somewhat negatively
(10:40):
to the proposal. Given that Japan and South Korea are
so dependent on Australia's natural gas for their own industries, is.
Speaker 3 (10:48):
It going to be enough to have these voters that
you know, the big business, the gas companies, to switch
their vote that it like this plan of Peter Dunton's.
Speaker 2 (10:58):
I think that there's a real risk for Peter Dutton
that if he doesn't put out some very serious modeling
on how much this will reduce energy prices and how
much this will save consumers, they will just see instead
the Labor's the Labor Party's tax plan, which it has
(11:18):
very clearly how much money they'll save, and think that
is a more appealing quantity. Now there's a reason why
the Coalition is reluctant to put out their modeling of
exactly how much it will save because at the last election,
Anthony Alberzi promised a two hundred and seventy five dollars
cut to power bills and that never eventuated, partly through
international factors, partly through the varieties of domestic demand. So
(11:44):
they're reluctant to hang their own flag on the same
post that Anthony Aberzi was somewhat thwarded by. Nonetheless, I
think if there is not more clear numbers for Australian voters,
they might not be too enthrall by this policy.
Speaker 3 (12:00):
Now then you mentioned the cost of living crisis before,
and we know that the Reserve Bank of Australia has
started to cut raids, which has no doubt helped Labour's
popularity a bit. How is the debate on interest rates
and inflation likely to play out in the campaign.
Speaker 2 (12:18):
Well, if it stays as it currently is, then it
will probably be a net benefit to the Prime minister.
As you said, we've see the interest rates come down,
we've started to see inflation come down as well, and
he talks a lot about how it's now half what
it was when they came to office. And there's no
doubt that the last monthly figures were inside the Reserve
(12:40):
Bank's target ban. That being said, there will be one
very important read of inflation and the week before the election,
I believe on the thirtieth of April. On that day,
if inflation moves in the wrong direction, that will be
used as a stick by Peter Dutton to batter Anthony
Albneasy all the way to poll on Saturday. And it
(13:01):
could be a real fifth week surprise if it is
a nasty turn on inflation. That being said, a result
in the opposite direction, one that was weaker than expected
and promised more cuts immediately after the election with a
Reserve Bank meeting in May, that would be a real
wind at Albanese's back as he heads, in his words,
(13:21):
into the fourth quarter.
Speaker 3 (13:23):
Quite a delicate game, isn't it. And when we come back,
we discussed the elephant in the room, what does Trump
and his tariff may have mean for the election and
what are our biggest companies hoping will happen. This is
the Bloomberg Australia Podcast. Welcome back to the Bloomberg Australia Podcast.
(13:44):
You're here with me Rebecca Jones, and I'm talking to
Ben Westcott, Bloomberg's Canbra based government reporter Ben Donald Trump
and his tariffs are making our mornings pretty chaotic in
the Bloomberg bureaus these days. I imagine they aren't a
huge amount of fun for Anthony Albanesi either, who is
seen as best I guess given their track records to
(14:07):
handle Trump with all of his demands and day to
day pronouncements that are causing all of this global volatility.
Speaker 2 (14:14):
Well, former Prime Minister Malcolm Turm will put it very
well this week when he's hur at the National Press
Club that both Albanzi and Dutton have got their own
strengths and their own weaknesses when it comes to dealing
with Trump. So to start with Dunton, he has a
very good ideological links to Trump. You know, he is
one of his biggest supporters. Is Australian billionaire Gina Reinhart,
(14:36):
who is another big supporter of Trump's and was actually
at mar Laga on election night, So there's instantly a
sense of rapport between the two leaders. The downside, however,
is that ideologically Dunton's base will also be quite sympathetic
to Trump, which will maintain that if Dunton needs to
(14:58):
push back, it could be hard for him politically then
already we're starting to see that over the course of
the campaign that Dunton has to somehow distance himself from
Trump given the fact that the US president is not
terribly popular in Australia, while at the same time keeping
his ideological base on side. On the other hand, Primeister
(15:19):
at the Alberzi is not an ideological bedfellow of Donald Trump,
and that would leave him instantly a disadvantage. However, he
has no reason not to be tough on Trump other
than the fact that he has to be has to
balance Australia's national interest. His base would probably prefer him
to be a lot tougher on the US president, and
already we've seen some strong results from Alberzi. Now, although
(15:41):
we didn't get the exemption on aluminum and steel tariffs,
Trump described Albanese as a very fine man after just
two phone calls, something which I think not very many
people had really been expecting. And I think whoever wins
the election will still face an upheld battle to take
on Trump given the current disruptions in the US.
Speaker 3 (16:00):
So Ben we've talked so far about the key policy
positions that we know about on both sides, how interest
rates and the cost of living are also key influences
and how both Dutton and Albanesi may differ in ways
to handle whatever's next to come out of the White House.
But Ben, this is a Bloomberg podcast, so we do
need to talk about one other really important group here,
(16:23):
and that's big business. Who will Australian corporates be hoping
to see in power after all this is done. What
are the people you've been talking to for your reporting
telling you about that.
Speaker 2 (16:34):
This is one of the really interesting parts of this
election and it sort of reaches a turning point that
we've seen coming in Australian politics for some time, but
really kind of comes to fruition in twenty twenty five.
So for many, many years, the Liberal National Coalition was
the natural party of big business and it was seen
as that by voters. But there's no doubt that this
(16:57):
election marks a real turn away from that. Peter Dutton
is threatening to break up major companies if they don't
do the right thing by Australian consumers, a very unliberal
way of handling extray's economic policy. So, for instance, supermarkets
have been threatened by the Coalition with breakup if they
(17:18):
do not properly pass on price reductions to consumers, and
even potentially people like insurance companies have been threatened with
action if they don't pass on reductions in prices to consumers.
So this is a very different Liberal party to the
one we've seen in the past. This is as they
would describe at the Party of small Business rather than
(17:39):
the Party of big business. Now that being said, generally
in Australia, big business would probably still prefer a Dutton
government to an Albersi government, but there are other things
which need to be taken into account as well. Many
companies have started to bet on the energy transition to
renewable energy, given the fact that when Labor came to
power they were going to be there for some time.
(18:01):
If they were booted, that would require a big rethink.
Given Dunton has shown that he's not as keen on
the renewal energy transition as Anthony Abernezi and the Labor Party,
thereby requiring a lot of chaos.
Speaker 3 (18:13):
And by the sounds of all that, ben maybe the
Labor liberal duopoly could also be busted after this election.
Thank you for joining me and thank you for listening
to the Bloomberg Australia podcast I'm Rebecca Jones. This episode
was recorded on the traditional lands of the Wundry and
Nullable People. It was produced by Paul Allen and edited
(18:34):
by Chris Burke and Ainsley Chandler. Don't forget to follow
and review the show wherever you get your podcasts, and
sign up for Bloomberg's free daily Newshetter Australia Briefing. Go
to bloomberg dot com to subscribe.
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