December 17, 2024 • 14 mins
China’s property crisis has become a massive headache for the world’s second-largest economy. Tens of millions of newly built apartments lie vacant, home prices have tumbled and cash-strapped developers are struggling to finish construction.
On today’s Big Take Asia Podcast, host K. Oanh Ha talks to Bloomberg’s Lulu Chen about what China is doing to try and solve its housing crisis. We go to Zhengzhou, home to the world’s biggest iPhone factory and the city where the housing market first imploded. It's now become a testing ground for government efforts to revive the ailing property sector. We look at whether they’re working, and what it will mean for China’s economy if the big push fails.
Read more: China’s Housing Rescue Falls Short in City That Signaled the Crisis
Further listening: What Comes Next in China’s Property Crisis
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:03):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. It's been more than
three years since China Evergrand Group collapsed and sent a
shockwave through the country's property market. EVERGN shares down about
thirty percent this week alone. That's, of course, the stock
that's lost more than ninety percent of its value since
(00:23):
the peak.
Speaker 2 (00:24):
The authorities are trying to ring fence this situation at Evergram.
Speaker 1 (00:28):
We know it is the most indebted developer in the world.
You know, there's concern that you miss these payments, there
could be cross default. The stunning fall of one of
the country's largest builders marked the beginning of a property
slump that continues to drag down the Chinese economy. Today,
Chinese property crisis will probably not be resolved anytime soon.
Speaker 2 (00:50):
Real estate has gone down, stocks have gone down, salaries
have gone down.
Speaker 1 (00:57):
China's real estate market was once valued at more than
fifty trillion dollars and made up a full quarter of
the economy, But now, more than three years later, the
housing crisis doesn't seem to be getting any better. All
across China, tens of millions of newly built apartments lie vacant.
Developers are struggling to finish construction and homeowners are watching
(01:20):
their property values plummet. All of this is putting the
central and local governments under immense pressure to turn the
property market around.
Speaker 2 (01:30):
So the big question is where are we in this
property crisis and what has been done? Is it working?
Speaker 1 (01:38):
Lulu Chen is Bloomberg's editor for Asia Finance and Investing.
Speaker 2 (01:42):
And I would say that Seizinping and his government came
up with this miracle pill, which is that they are
going to let the local governments by the unsold inventory,
access inventory and converted into affordable housing. Now, in theory,
great idea, but on the ground it's running into all
kinds of challenges.
Speaker 1 (02:07):
Welcome to the Big Take Asia from Bloomberg News. I'm Wanha.
Every week we take you inside some of the world's
biggest and most powerful economies and the markets, tycoons and
businesses that drive this ever shifting region. Today on the show,
China's Housing Rescue Plan. What is the Chinese government doing
(02:27):
to save the property market, Is it working, and what's
at stake if it fails. To take a closer look
at what exactly the Chinese government has tried to do
to boost the housing market, Lulu and other Bloomberg reporters
decided to focus in on a city called junk Joo.
Speaker 2 (02:52):
Chung Sho is ground zero for a China's housing crisis.
It was one of the first few studies that saw
its real estate market crash. It was at the center
of the mortgage boycotts if you remember a few years back,
when people refused to pay their mortgages because the developers
were not able to finish the construction on the houses
(03:14):
that they already pre sold.
Speaker 1 (03:16):
Junk Jo is a city of about twelve million people.
It's located in the Yellow River Valley in the heartland
of China.
Speaker 2 (03:24):
It's the capital of Nam Province and that used to
be one of the nation's forest provinces. Junzhou these days
is most famous for being home to the largest iPhone factory,
Fox Cohn. They have their largest factory there.
Speaker 1 (03:38):
The arrival of factories supporting Fox KHN and the ev
maker byd kicked off a period of rapid growth in
the city and new residential communities sprouted up.
Speaker 2 (03:50):
Before the market crash. Junho was super ambitious. They wanted
to attract talent and investment. They wanted to become a
financial center, a logistics hub, hub and they even built
this massive artificial lake and Mammadde Financial Island.
Speaker 1 (04:07):
But Lulu says, even in the early days, there were
signals that jung Chou probably had overbuilt.
Speaker 2 (04:14):
I was reporting a story about China's property bubble about
twelve years ago, and we did look at Jungzhou, and
that was a place back then already attracted a lot
of skepticism. People were calling a ghost town. And even
back then it was you could see construction everywhere and
plots and plots of fields being converted into land for
(04:36):
real estate. Given how things have panned out, for sure,
and I think like the skepticism of them being overreaching
and taking on too much debt was evident even more
than a decade ago.
Speaker 1 (04:49):
Bloomberg reporters recently traveled to Junchhou, and Lulu says the
city feels less of a ghost town these days, but
it still looks like a gigantic construction site.
Speaker 2 (05:00):
If you travel to Junjo today, you would see the
whole city just rife with half finished projects and government
loans are having some effect. Cranes are warring again, but
it's still stacks and stacks of empty buildings, empty skyscrapers,
and these massive boulevards with very few cars, lands that
were slated for development sitting idle, so much so that
(05:22):
locals have turned them into vegetable gardens.
Speaker 1 (05:25):
In the decade through twenty twenty, junk Jou's urban area
more than doubled, but the population only grew less than
fifty percent. And Lulu, why is it that junk jo
never realized its goals? Why can't it just build its
way into prosperity.
Speaker 2 (05:40):
Yeah, well location, so Junjo is in the heartland of China,
and the context for their ambition is while they were
plotting this out, there were one hundred other cities who
wanted to be the saying they all wanted to be
technology hubs, they all wanted to be financial hubs. So
think of Junjho, but times by dozens or even hundreds.
(06:03):
And this was happening across China at the time.
Speaker 1 (06:05):
And when the city government in junk Joe finally realized
that they were in trouble in twenty twenty two, they
sprang into action.
Speaker 2 (06:13):
Juanjou threw everything on the wall after the property crisis happened.
They've tried so many ideas that officials from other cities
have been flocking there to study the model. They gave
loans to developers, trying to help them complete and finish projects.
They offer to buy surplus units, and even subsidies payments
to residents who would replace their outdate at homes.
Speaker 1 (06:37):
Junk Cho's government purchased more than one hundred thousand unsold
units from real estate developers. It didn't say how much
money it spent, but local media Taishin reported the amount
could be around thirty billion yuen or about four billion dollars.
According to a state backed magazine, about three quarters of
the funding comes from commercial bank loans and the interest
(06:59):
rate was only three percent. And what did they do
with the properties that they bought.
Speaker 2 (07:04):
They convert the mental affordable housing, which is something that
she has tried to champion. And these public units would
be both for sale or for rent.
Speaker 1 (07:14):
And how is that going slowly?
Speaker 2 (07:16):
Is going slowly? I think on the rental friend they
made some progress in attracting more people. On the sales front,
it seems that there's simply not enough demand where people
are willing to buy public housing even at such low
prices because of the belief that the prices are still
going to drop.
Speaker 1 (07:35):
In theory, it sounds like a great idea. By purchasing
these apartments and converting them into public housing, the government
is trying to kill two birds with one stone to
absorb the oversupply on the market and to answer present
She's call to make housing more affordable. But Lulu says,
in reality, there are a lot of challenges on the ground.
Speaker 2 (07:57):
So something as specific as finding enough apartments that fit
the criteria of what the government wants. Often they want
to find entire apartment blocks of small units that can
be converted into public housing, and that's a huge challenge
in itself. They also need to access cheap financing to
(08:17):
make money off of these projects, and then they have
to persuade the developers to sell these apartments at steep discounts,
which is another at tension. Goldman Sachs estimates that a
discount of thirty percent may be needed when they buy
these properties from the developers. What High Securities was even
(08:37):
more aggressive. They said that need to mark down the
property prices by fifty percent when they buy them from
the developers.
Speaker 1 (08:44):
That's quite a bit.
Speaker 2 (08:45):
Yeah yeah, So the developers aren't willing or simply can't
afford to do this.
Speaker 1 (08:50):
What the government ideally wants is that in some ways
the developers, even though they're selling it for discount, they
can at least.
Speaker 2 (08:58):
What offload the inventory since they're gonna go belly up
or get liquid at to restructured.
Speaker 1 (09:05):
It sounds like the government has to jump through a
lot of hopes to make that happen. Yes, and Lulu,
is this strategy working in Junjo?
Speaker 2 (09:15):
I don't think that's working. Junjo's property prices are still falling,
and what's happening in Junjo is very indicative of what's
happening in the rest of China.
Speaker 1 (09:27):
What is happening in the rest of China. What else
is Beijing doing to shore up the property market and
can they succeed? That's after the break. China's property crisis
(09:48):
has become a massive headache for the world's second largest economy.
Across the country, there are tens of millions of unsold homes.
Speaker 2 (09:56):
Yeah, so, Bloomberg Economics estimates that the country has as
an inventory of about five point two billion square meters
of unsold housing. It would be the equivalent of sixty
million apartments.
Speaker 1 (10:09):
Sixty million apartments, that's enough to house the entire population
of France. Bloomberg Economics estimates that it would take more
than four years to sell that inventory. That's assuming sales
don't keep falling Lulu. These numbers are staggering. What else
is Beijing doing to support the property market.
Speaker 2 (10:29):
Yeah, They've made it easier and cheaper for people to
buy homes. They've lowered the existing mortgage rates, which would
lessen the burden for homeowners. In addition, the government has
been easing its monetary and fiscal policies since late September,
and they've also provided lending to developers so they can
finish approved projects. And this is what we commonly refer
(10:53):
to as the white list. The goal for whitelist loans
is to reach Fortrillionnuan, which would be about five hundred
and fifty billion dollars by the end of twenty twenty four.
That amount was more than three trillion yuan as of November.
Speaker 1 (11:09):
That's a huge number. That's half a trillion US dollars.
Speaker 2 (11:12):
Yeah, that's one of the issues. And then the other
thing is the whitelist loans only address the issue of
finishing unbuilt projects. Right, there's the other part of the issue,
which is this excess supply of inventory, and unless the
government can address this excess inventory issue, the prices are
(11:33):
not going to rebound.
Speaker 1 (11:35):
Even with the tons of money the central government is
pouring into the market to turn the property crisis around,
these fixes don't seem to be working so far. Used
home prices have declined for thirty nine straight months through
October to a level about thirty percent below the July
twenty twenty one peak. Lulu says there's a perfect storm
(11:56):
of structural issues that helps explain why the government isn't
really seeing the results they're hoping for.
Speaker 2 (12:02):
Demographic challenges, which means that people are aging, population is dropping,
not enough demand. Also, the developers persistent liquidity crunch, unfinished
homes weighing on buyer confidence, and families stuck with this
mindset that home prices won't rise. Ceazingping has made it
quite clear that he doesn't want housing as a speculative investment.
(12:26):
With that kind of messaging, people are going to interpret that.
The overarching guidance is still that there is no upside
in investing in real estate, and what would be the
point in buying apartments.
Speaker 1 (12:39):
Fundamentally, it all boils down to simple economics. There's too
many apartments and there's not enough people who want to
buy them, And Lulu says, if the government can't figure
out a way to ease the crisis and stabilize the
housing market, there could be even bigger consequences for the country.
Speaker 2 (12:58):
At this moment, the property crisis is the greatest threat
to China's economy, and to a certain extent, it's the
government's owndoing because they're policy restrictions on developer leverage exacerbated
and triggered this unfolding of the real estate sector that
was already facing so many structural issues. You combine this
(13:20):
with the job losses, youth unemployment, China's export challenges, Trump tariffs,
and aging society that where all these households are counting
on real estate for about eighty percent of household wealth.
And what you have to is the perfect storm.
Speaker 1 (13:40):
This is the Big take Asia from Bloomberg News. I'm Wanha.
Listen to our previous episode on China's real estate meltdown
after the nation's biggest developer, Country Garden, defaulted, and how
it upended hundreds of thousands of lives. You can find
the link in the show notes. This episode was produced
by Young Yah Naomi Um and Jessica Beck. It was
(14:02):
mixed by Alex Suguiera and fact checked by Adrianna Tapia.
It was edited by Caitlin Kenney and David Scanlan. Naomi
Shaven is our senior producer, Elizabeth Ponso is our senior editor,
Nicole Beemster Bower is our executive producer, and Sage Bauman
is Bloomberg's head of podcasts. Please follow and review The
Big Tick Asia wherever you listen to podcasts. It really
(14:24):
helps new listeners find the show. See you next time.
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. It's been more than
three years since China Evergrand Group collapsed and sent a
shockwave through the country's property market. EVERGN shares down about
thirty percent this week alone. That's, of course, the stock
that's lost more than ninety percent of its value since
(00:23):
the peak.
Speaker 2 (00:24):
The authorities are trying to ring fence this situation at Evergram.
Speaker 1 (00:28):
We know it is the most indebted developer in the world.
You know, there's concern that you miss these payments, there
could be cross default. The stunning fall of one of
the country's largest builders marked the beginning of a property
slump that continues to drag down the Chinese economy. Today,
Chinese property crisis will probably not be resolved anytime soon.
Speaker 2 (00:50):
Real estate has gone down, stocks have gone down, salaries
have gone down.
Speaker 1 (00:57):
China's real estate market was once valued at more than
fifty trillion dollars and made up a full quarter of
the economy, But now, more than three years later, the
housing crisis doesn't seem to be getting any better. All
across China, tens of millions of newly built apartments lie vacant.
Developers are struggling to finish construction and homeowners are watching
(01:20):
their property values plummet. All of this is putting the
central and local governments under immense pressure to turn the
property market around.
Speaker 2 (01:30):
So the big question is where are we in this
property crisis and what has been done? Is it working?
Speaker 1 (01:38):
Lulu Chen is Bloomberg's editor for Asia Finance and Investing.
Speaker 2 (01:42):
And I would say that Seizinping and his government came
up with this miracle pill, which is that they are
going to let the local governments by the unsold inventory,
access inventory and converted into affordable housing. Now, in theory,
great idea, but on the ground it's running into all
kinds of challenges.
Speaker 1 (02:07):
Welcome to the Big Take Asia from Bloomberg News. I'm Wanha.
Every week we take you inside some of the world's
biggest and most powerful economies and the markets, tycoons and
businesses that drive this ever shifting region. Today on the show,
China's Housing Rescue Plan. What is the Chinese government doing
(02:27):
to save the property market, Is it working, and what's
at stake if it fails. To take a closer look
at what exactly the Chinese government has tried to do
to boost the housing market, Lulu and other Bloomberg reporters
decided to focus in on a city called junk Joo.
Speaker 2 (02:52):
Chung Sho is ground zero for a China's housing crisis.
It was one of the first few studies that saw
its real estate market crash. It was at the center
of the mortgage boycotts if you remember a few years back,
when people refused to pay their mortgages because the developers
were not able to finish the construction on the houses
(03:14):
that they already pre sold.
Speaker 1 (03:16):
Junk Jo is a city of about twelve million people.
It's located in the Yellow River Valley in the heartland
of China.
Speaker 2 (03:24):
It's the capital of Nam Province and that used to
be one of the nation's forest provinces. Junzhou these days
is most famous for being home to the largest iPhone factory,
Fox Cohn. They have their largest factory there.
Speaker 1 (03:38):
The arrival of factories supporting Fox KHN and the ev
maker byd kicked off a period of rapid growth in
the city and new residential communities sprouted up.
Speaker 2 (03:50):
Before the market crash. Junho was super ambitious. They wanted
to attract talent and investment. They wanted to become a
financial center, a logistics hub, hub and they even built
this massive artificial lake and Mammadde Financial Island.
Speaker 1 (04:07):
But Lulu says, even in the early days, there were
signals that jung Chou probably had overbuilt.
Speaker 2 (04:14):
I was reporting a story about China's property bubble about
twelve years ago, and we did look at Jungzhou, and
that was a place back then already attracted a lot
of skepticism. People were calling a ghost town. And even
back then it was you could see construction everywhere and
plots and plots of fields being converted into land for
(04:36):
real estate. Given how things have panned out, for sure,
and I think like the skepticism of them being overreaching
and taking on too much debt was evident even more
than a decade ago.
Speaker 1 (04:49):
Bloomberg reporters recently traveled to Junchhou, and Lulu says the
city feels less of a ghost town these days, but
it still looks like a gigantic construction site.
Speaker 2 (05:00):
If you travel to Junjo today, you would see the
whole city just rife with half finished projects and government
loans are having some effect. Cranes are warring again, but
it's still stacks and stacks of empty buildings, empty skyscrapers,
and these massive boulevards with very few cars, lands that
were slated for development sitting idle, so much so that
(05:22):
locals have turned them into vegetable gardens.
Speaker 1 (05:25):
In the decade through twenty twenty, junk Jou's urban area
more than doubled, but the population only grew less than
fifty percent. And Lulu, why is it that junk jo
never realized its goals? Why can't it just build its
way into prosperity.
Speaker 2 (05:40):
Yeah, well location, so Junjo is in the heartland of China,
and the context for their ambition is while they were
plotting this out, there were one hundred other cities who
wanted to be the saying they all wanted to be
technology hubs, they all wanted to be financial hubs. So
think of Junjho, but times by dozens or even hundreds.
(06:03):
And this was happening across China at the time.
Speaker 1 (06:05):
And when the city government in junk Joe finally realized
that they were in trouble in twenty twenty two, they
sprang into action.
Speaker 2 (06:13):
Juanjou threw everything on the wall after the property crisis happened.
They've tried so many ideas that officials from other cities
have been flocking there to study the model. They gave
loans to developers, trying to help them complete and finish projects.
They offer to buy surplus units, and even subsidies payments
to residents who would replace their outdate at homes.
Speaker 1 (06:37):
Junk Cho's government purchased more than one hundred thousand unsold
units from real estate developers. It didn't say how much
money it spent, but local media Taishin reported the amount
could be around thirty billion yuen or about four billion dollars.
According to a state backed magazine, about three quarters of
the funding comes from commercial bank loans and the interest
(06:59):
rate was only three percent. And what did they do
with the properties that they bought.
Speaker 2 (07:04):
They convert the mental affordable housing, which is something that
she has tried to champion. And these public units would
be both for sale or for rent.
Speaker 1 (07:14):
And how is that going slowly?
Speaker 2 (07:16):
Is going slowly? I think on the rental friend they
made some progress in attracting more people. On the sales front,
it seems that there's simply not enough demand where people
are willing to buy public housing even at such low
prices because of the belief that the prices are still
going to drop.
Speaker 1 (07:35):
In theory, it sounds like a great idea. By purchasing
these apartments and converting them into public housing, the government
is trying to kill two birds with one stone to
absorb the oversupply on the market and to answer present
She's call to make housing more affordable. But Lulu says,
in reality, there are a lot of challenges on the ground.
Speaker 2 (07:57):
So something as specific as finding enough apartments that fit
the criteria of what the government wants. Often they want
to find entire apartment blocks of small units that can
be converted into public housing, and that's a huge challenge
in itself. They also need to access cheap financing to
(08:17):
make money off of these projects, and then they have
to persuade the developers to sell these apartments at steep discounts,
which is another at tension. Goldman Sachs estimates that a
discount of thirty percent may be needed when they buy
these properties from the developers. What High Securities was even
(08:37):
more aggressive. They said that need to mark down the
property prices by fifty percent when they buy them from
the developers.
Speaker 1 (08:44):
That's quite a bit.
Speaker 2 (08:45):
Yeah yeah, So the developers aren't willing or simply can't
afford to do this.
Speaker 1 (08:50):
What the government ideally wants is that in some ways
the developers, even though they're selling it for discount, they
can at least.
Speaker 2 (08:58):
What offload the inventory since they're gonna go belly up
or get liquid at to restructured.
Speaker 1 (09:05):
It sounds like the government has to jump through a
lot of hopes to make that happen. Yes, and Lulu,
is this strategy working in Junjo?
Speaker 2 (09:15):
I don't think that's working. Junjo's property prices are still falling,
and what's happening in Junjo is very indicative of what's
happening in the rest of China.
Speaker 1 (09:27):
What is happening in the rest of China. What else
is Beijing doing to shore up the property market and
can they succeed? That's after the break. China's property crisis
(09:48):
has become a massive headache for the world's second largest economy.
Across the country, there are tens of millions of unsold homes.
Speaker 2 (09:56):
Yeah, so, Bloomberg Economics estimates that the country has as
an inventory of about five point two billion square meters
of unsold housing. It would be the equivalent of sixty
million apartments.
Speaker 1 (10:09):
Sixty million apartments, that's enough to house the entire population
of France. Bloomberg Economics estimates that it would take more
than four years to sell that inventory. That's assuming sales
don't keep falling Lulu. These numbers are staggering. What else
is Beijing doing to support the property market.
Speaker 2 (10:29):
Yeah, They've made it easier and cheaper for people to
buy homes. They've lowered the existing mortgage rates, which would
lessen the burden for homeowners. In addition, the government has
been easing its monetary and fiscal policies since late September,
and they've also provided lending to developers so they can
finish approved projects. And this is what we commonly refer
(10:53):
to as the white list. The goal for whitelist loans
is to reach Fortrillionnuan, which would be about five hundred
and fifty billion dollars by the end of twenty twenty four.
That amount was more than three trillion yuan as of November.
Speaker 1 (11:09):
That's a huge number. That's half a trillion US dollars.
Speaker 2 (11:12):
Yeah, that's one of the issues. And then the other
thing is the whitelist loans only address the issue of
finishing unbuilt projects. Right, there's the other part of the issue,
which is this excess supply of inventory, and unless the
government can address this excess inventory issue, the prices are
(11:33):
not going to rebound.
Speaker 1 (11:35):
Even with the tons of money the central government is
pouring into the market to turn the property crisis around,
these fixes don't seem to be working so far. Used
home prices have declined for thirty nine straight months through
October to a level about thirty percent below the July
twenty twenty one peak. Lulu says there's a perfect storm
(11:56):
of structural issues that helps explain why the government isn't
really seeing the results they're hoping for.
Speaker 2 (12:02):
Demographic challenges, which means that people are aging, population is dropping,
not enough demand. Also, the developers persistent liquidity crunch, unfinished
homes weighing on buyer confidence, and families stuck with this
mindset that home prices won't rise. Ceazingping has made it
quite clear that he doesn't want housing as a speculative investment.
(12:26):
With that kind of messaging, people are going to interpret that.
The overarching guidance is still that there is no upside
in investing in real estate, and what would be the
point in buying apartments.
Speaker 1 (12:39):
Fundamentally, it all boils down to simple economics. There's too
many apartments and there's not enough people who want to
buy them, And Lulu says, if the government can't figure
out a way to ease the crisis and stabilize the
housing market, there could be even bigger consequences for the country.
Speaker 2 (12:58):
At this moment, the property crisis is the greatest threat
to China's economy, and to a certain extent, it's the
government's owndoing because they're policy restrictions on developer leverage exacerbated
and triggered this unfolding of the real estate sector that
was already facing so many structural issues. You combine this
(13:20):
with the job losses, youth unemployment, China's export challenges, Trump tariffs,
and aging society that where all these households are counting
on real estate for about eighty percent of household wealth.
And what you have to is the perfect storm.
Speaker 1 (13:40):
This is the Big take Asia from Bloomberg News. I'm Wanha.
Listen to our previous episode on China's real estate meltdown
after the nation's biggest developer, Country Garden, defaulted, and how
it upended hundreds of thousands of lives. You can find
the link in the show notes. This episode was produced
by Young Yah Naomi Um and Jessica Beck. It was
(14:02):
mixed by Alex Suguiera and fact checked by Adrianna Tapia.
It was edited by Caitlin Kenney and David Scanlan. Naomi
Shaven is our senior producer, Elizabeth Ponso is our senior editor,
Nicole Beemster Bower is our executive producer, and Sage Bauman
is Bloomberg's head of podcasts. Please follow and review The
Big Tick Asia wherever you listen to podcasts. It really
(14:24):
helps new listeners find the show. See you next time.
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Sarah Holder
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