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June 14, 2024 15 mins

Have you had the flu recently? Or RSV? Or just … some bug that you can’t quite shake? If so – you’re not alone. Bloomberg’s data team recently decided to investigate whether or not the perception that we’re all getting sick all the time is actually backed up by numbers. And what they found was truly surprising: in countries around the world, people are getting much sicker, much more often in the wake of the pandemic.

On today’s episode, host Sarah Holder and Bloomberg data reporter Jinshan Hong try to solve this global health mystery – including the potential culprits behind the surge in sickness and what we can do to avoid getting ill so often.

Read more: Yes, Everyone Really Is Sick a Lot More Often After Covid

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Episode Transcript

Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:03):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

Speaker 2 (00:09):
Earlier this year, Bloomberg data reporter Jinshawn Honk got hung
up on this question. It was something she kept noticing
at work, at home, everywhere she went. She couldn't shake it.

Speaker 1 (00:21):
Why does it seem like everyone everywhere like seems to
be getting sick all the time.

Speaker 2 (00:27):
Jinshahn's colleagues in Hong Kong and their family members all
seemed to be getting sick. Jinshawn kept catching things too.
Everybody was talking about it.

Speaker 3 (00:37):
I'm a person that rarely gets sick. I had pink eye,
my broat was swollen. I couldn't breathe through my nose.
It was the worst two months of my life.

Speaker 2 (00:48):
Here at the Big Take, we've been hearing similar laments
from our family and friends all year.

Speaker 3 (00:53):
My husband had COVID in September, my daughter and I
had stepped throat in October, RSV.

Speaker 2 (01:01):
In November, it seemed like everybody had their own sickness story.
I had pneumonia.

Speaker 1 (01:06):
It turns out I went to urging care twice.

Speaker 2 (01:08):
It probably took a little about three weeks before I
started feeling human again.

Speaker 3 (01:14):
In March, I had shingles at the age of twenty nine.

Speaker 1 (01:18):
At first I thought it was allergies, but now I
think I'm sick. My nose is running uncontrollably, and I
feel achy and tired.

Speaker 2 (01:27):
Back in Hong Kong, jinchn was hearing similar things. But
talk is cheap, and Jinchon is a data reporter, so
when she has a question, she doesn't just wonder about it,
she starts collecting data.

Speaker 1 (01:39):
We decided to look into this and find out whether
it's just a perception issue or is there something really
going on that we should figure out for the public.

Speaker 2 (01:49):
It was a mystery, so Jinchon and her team went
into detective mode, working with disease forecasters to gather case counts,
calling up doctors, combing through re search from all over
the world, and what they found was truly eye opening.
Today on the show, Grab your hand Sanitizer and your

(02:11):
n ninety five's for a data detective story, we joined
Jinshan as she scours the research for clues, culprits, correlations,
and causations as she takes on the case of why
everybody seems to be getting sick all the time. This
is the big take from Bloomberg News I'm Sarah Holder.

(02:36):
Tracking how sickness spreads is a massive data undertaking, and
to begin to understand how often it's spreading post COVID,
Bloomberg's Jinshawn Hang first had to narrow down a list
of illnesses to look at, so she enlisted the help
of a London based firm that forecast diseases worldwide called
air Affinity, and the help of her colleague Buma Shrivastava. Together,

(03:00):
we analyzed data from sixty public health agencies and organizations
like the WHO and UNSUFF and came up with a
grim list.

Speaker 1 (03:09):
We were able to identify at least thirteen communicable diseases
that are surging in parts of the world that's above
pre pandemic waves and in some cases it surpassed the
pre pandemic peak by a significant margin.

Speaker 2 (03:24):
These diseases included cholera, measles, tuberculosis, RSV, denay, and the flu.
But Jinjohn also wanted to know where these diseases were spiking.

Speaker 1 (03:35):
So before the pandemic we were able to find out
the peak of every disease in every country between twenty
seventeen to twenty nineteen, and after COVID we have twenty
twenty two to twenty twenty four, also three year and
we find out a peak and compare the two whenever
we see a spike. Then we market on a map,
and with that we were able to identify regions where

(03:57):
certain diseases are surging more profoundly.

Speaker 2 (04:01):
Now, this data wasn't completely exhaustive, but it did show
some notable trends. All thirteen of the diseases they tracked
had surged above post pandemic levels somewhere.

Speaker 1 (04:12):
It may not be higher in every country, but then
we do see every one of them seem to be
showing up in a variety of geographies at higher levels. So,
for example, den gey is making a very strong resurgence
in Americas. We also have likenisos like spreading to about

(04:33):
twenty states in the US and other countries in Europe.
And we are also seeing tuberculesis is like really making
a lot of spikes in the developing world. And with that,
everyday common diseases like cold and flu and RSV are
also reported about pre pandemic levels.

Speaker 2 (04:53):
Some of the surges are especially dramatic, and more than
forty places at least one of these diseases has seen
case counts leap tenfold or more from their pre pandemic baselines.
Influenza was up forty percent in the US during the
last two flu seasons compared to pre COVID levels. Besides
the health impacts and the strains to the medical system

(05:14):
this can create, there are also other economic impacts. All
those sick days are starting to add up.

Speaker 1 (05:21):
We were looking through workplace research reports from places like
UK and the US, and there is more absenteesan with that,
we are seeing people reporting more sick days or taking
longer sick leaves from work. Maybe in the pre COVID years,
when you were a little sick, you'll still go out

(05:41):
and have a drink. It's like, Ah, I'm sick, but
I'm not sick to a degree that I cannot function.
I'll still go to work. But now I think we
are also more aware that, oh I feel a bit
sick today, maybe I shouldn't go to work.

Speaker 2 (05:55):
That's one helpful lesson to come out of COVID. That's
staying home when you're sick curb infections. But illnesses are
spiking anyway, and that's concerning, especially because Ginean reminded me
the COVID nineteen pandemic was unprecedented, and so is our
post pandemic reality.

Speaker 1 (06:13):
According to who's chief scientist Jeremy Farral, we are really
in a new place because the last devastating major pandemic
we had was in nineteen eighteen, which was so called
the Spanish Flu, and back then we were not having
as many vaccinations, diagnosis, or even treatment like at that time.

(06:37):
It was really a different stage. So what we are
facing right now is really an unparallel situation that scientists
are raising to understand.

Speaker 2 (06:47):
Even though it was a massive data lift, Jinshan says
that figuring out that we were all getting sick more
often was actually the easy part coming up after the break,
unraveling the mystery of what's causing this spike in global illness.

(07:10):
If you think about this story as a big global
health mystery at this point, Bloomberg's Jinshawn Hank has identified
the say victims those of us who are getting sick
more often all around the world. But who or what
in this case is the culprit what's making everyone sick
in this post pandemic era. Well, Jinhawn told us there

(07:34):
are a few major theories floating around. I asked her
to introduce some of the prime suspects. So first, there's
this idea that we all lost our immunity because we
stayed home during the pandemic, there were quarantines, we weren't

(07:54):
being exposed to as many diseases. How much of that
is at play here?

Speaker 1 (08:00):
That theory, which was at one point very leading theory
during the pandemic, is that it's called immunity debt, where
people became more susceptible to various infectious respiratory diseases because
they were not exposed to the pathogen during the lockdown years.
But that's still quite controversial among scientists that we talked to.

(08:25):
Some of them think there's not enough data yet to
prove it, and some other thing. Even if they make resurgence,
they are not supposed to be the size of the
spikes that we actually see today.

Speaker 2 (08:40):
Well, this immunity debt theory is contested. Experts told Jinshn
that lockdowns could have contributed to the current spikes in
a different way. Babies who avoided catching respiratory diseases during
COVID quarantines and school closures maybe getting exposed and sick
for the first time as toddlers.

Speaker 1 (09:00):
It's more like a delayed education to their immune system.

Speaker 2 (09:05):
Delayed education. In other words, in the years since lockdowns ended,
more kids might now be getting sick all At the
same time, these kinds of COVID related delays are also
showing up in some countries mortality rates.

Speaker 1 (09:19):
Some countries that used to control COVID very well during
the pandemic years seem to have higher or couse mortality
rates right now. So one theory they presented was that
because those countries were able to keep frail elderly people
live longer and keep them away from regularly circulating disease

(09:41):
that are usually common in the communities, so with that
they are now facing a higher death burden.

Speaker 2 (09:47):
Another mystery doctors and scientists are trying to investigate is
the effect of COVID infections on people's longer term health.
Did you look into long COVID. Has COVID itself made
people more duptible to other illnesses?

Speaker 1 (10:02):
Yeah, that is also a very heated topic that scientists
are looking into because COVID definitely has changes on some
people that's much more than the general public, But that's
still like relatively a smaller population compared to the general
public in terms of everybody. I think there's no proof

(10:23):
at this point, according to our interviews, that we are
becoming much weaker than before.

Speaker 2 (10:31):
Our next suspect in the rise of illness across the
world the anti vaccine movement.

Speaker 1 (10:36):
For example, One thing that went very rampant during COVID
was the misinformation the social media and how the information
got spread to many many people, and the mistrust of
vaccination seems to continue.

Speaker 2 (10:53):
Vaccine hesitancy and misinformation, along with supply chain issues, have
led to a steep drop in childhood vaccination rate in Europe.
Musle's case suspect thirtyfold last year after a few years
where nearly two million infants missed their shots. And it's
not just Musles vaccines.

Speaker 1 (11:10):
Basic vaccinations for children such as DTP had declined and
that's resulting in a lot of the surges right now.

Speaker 2 (11:20):
Meanwhile, COVID exacerbated other issues that can keep people sick.

Speaker 1 (11:24):
There's also the social inequality caused indirectly by COVID policies,
So there are increasingly poorer communities living in crowded environments
and that prompts and potentially fuel disease circulating in the areas.

Speaker 2 (11:43):
So those are all the culprits that are potentially related
to the pandemic and its aftermath. But as any mystery
fan knows, oftentimes the real villain is completely unrelated to
the obvious suspect. So I asked Jinshan, were there any
other plot twists or culprits on r related to the pandemic.

Speaker 1 (12:02):
When we talked about climate change, we tend to think
about economic losses or risks to different kinds of countries
and people. But like in terms of diseases, now we
are seeing it playing out in multiple aspects, with more flooding,
with more extreme weather, with more warm weather. We are seeing,

(12:22):
for example, like den Gay, which relies on mosquitoes to
spread the disease, it's getting to more places because mosquitoes
were able to survive in previously colder environments.

Speaker 2 (12:36):
So turn, out of everything that we've talked about, what
did the experts tell you is the most likely reason
why sicknesses are surging?

Speaker 1 (12:46):
They tell us it's a perfect storm, and it is.

Speaker 2 (12:50):
A puzzle a perfect storm. What they mean is there's
not just one bad guy here. There's the disruption to
our immune systems, a rise in global poverty, climate change,
and a dip in childhood vaccination rates. It's that last one, vaccines,
that many scientists and health researchers agreed is most compelling.
In the meantime, I asked Jinshawn, what can we do

(13:14):
to stay healthier? I've been sick, You've been sick. Nobody
likes being sick. How can people at home buck the
global trend and stop getting sick all the time?

Speaker 1 (13:25):
That's something I think people have been trying to find
a balance with. Do we need to continue a lot
of the measures that we started with COVID, for example,
wearing masks on public transport and buses when you feel unwell.
The answer from some experts that we talked to is
probably yes, because there's kind of a public fear for

(13:50):
doing those measures again because they make them look weird. Like,
you know, COVID is over, Why are you still wearing masks?

Speaker 2 (13:59):
But actually, right, you're living in the past.

Speaker 1 (14:01):
Yeah, are you living the pause? What are you afraid of?
But if you really feel sick, that might help to
spare your colleague from this particular disease that you are
going through.

Speaker 2 (14:14):
So, after months of research and data collection and creating
her map. Jinhan did not end up being able to
name any one offender. There was no Kernel Mustard in
the library with the candle to really hammer home the metaphor.
He likely had some accomplices. The culprits seem to include
all of us have slightly wonky immune systems after being

(14:36):
isolated and inside for a long time, though that might
be a little bit of a red herring. There's the
effects of the COVID virus itself, fewer people are getting vaccines,
and climate change the wild card that's causing disease spreading
agents like mosquitoes to move to different places. But my
main takeaway from Jinshan's research is that even as we

(14:58):
try to move our minds away from the day of
COVID in a lot of ways, our bodies have not
moved on, at least not yet. This is the big
take from Bloomberg News. I'm Sarah Holder. This episode was
produced by Adriana Tapia. It was edited by Stacy Vanicksmith

(15:18):
and Rachel Chang. It was mixed by Veronica Rodriguez. It
was fact checked by Thomas lu Special thanks to Arafat
Jolasho Perry. Our senior producers are Kim Gettelson and Naomi Shaven.
Our senior editor is Elizabeth Ponso. Nicole beemsterbor is Our
executive producer. Sage Bauman is Head of podcasts. Thanks so
much for listening. Please follow and review The Big Take

(15:39):
wherever you get your podcasts. It helps new listeners find
the show. We'll be back next week.
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