April 11, 2025 • 10 mins
Louis Navellier, Chairman, Founder and CIO of Navellier & Associates, explains why he's optimistic about markets with quarterly earnings set to start rolling out in full force, and why he believes "the bond vigilantes are in charge" at the White House following President Donald Trump's temporary tariff pullback.
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. This is Bloomberg Business
Week with Carol Masser and Tim Stenovek on Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 2 (00:14):
Can I just say I'm exhausted. I want to see
what Louis Navalier has to say. He has seen his
share of crises, volatility, market cycles. He's chairman, founder and CEO,
ce io excuse me of Navalier and associates. And he
joins us.
Speaker 1 (00:26):
From Rancho, Santa Fe, California.
Speaker 3 (00:29):
Nice. Nice?
Speaker 1 (00:30):
Are you just north of San Diego. I don't even
know why he's inside right now. He should be outside,
I know, but it's a beautiful.
Speaker 2 (00:37):
Play and go really, so then you're not worried about
the market.
Speaker 3 (00:42):
No, no, because I have good earnings and the real
good earnings kick off next week with Taiwan Semi Conductor,
although I don't own that stock, but it's a bell weather.
I think Netflix will probably okay, and then we'll start
to focus on earnings and I live core or so
I think there's four months of efficient markets, which is
(01:03):
earning season, and eight months of mean reversion, and the
mean reversion season will end soon.
Speaker 2 (01:09):
Wait, okay, so we wait.
Speaker 1 (01:12):
I'm just like this jumb found you. You know what,
you should have gone and played at golf of a
game of golf to Carrol because it relaxes you, apparently,
and everything is fine.
Speaker 2 (01:22):
How do you so, what's your read on Washington? What's
you read on the president?
Speaker 1 (01:28):
And what you read on tariffs?
Speaker 3 (01:30):
The bond vigilantes are in charge. Obviously they had a
Scott Best that had meeting with President Trump, and how
Howard was there our Commerce secretary. Those are both experts
in treasuries and the bond vigilanities took over, so they
had to they had to put the ninety day suspension on.
Speaker 2 (01:49):
But so then, what do you think was going on
in the White House today as we saw a bunch
of selling.
Speaker 3 (01:54):
I think the bond vigilantes are still in charge. We
had a thirty year bond auction and we got away
with it, but the dollars a week Apparently a lot
of people own our treasuries are net sellers, and they're
just not as friendly as they used to be. I
personally think that rates will collapse in Europe and then
the dollar will get its mojo back. But for the
(02:17):
short term, these big and soutional bond players are in charge,
and they allowed our treasure yields to spike, and they
had to do something, so they put the ninety days
suspension on.
Speaker 1 (02:28):
Hey, Rich we spoke, I mean, excuse me, Louis, we
spoke to Rich Weise at American Century Investments. I'm looking
at my notes here to go back to what he
told us. He called this uncertainty on steroids. He said
he's not buying the dips. He said, this downturn is
more serious than other ones. He called it man made
in a catastrophe. He was pretty dour. He had warnings,
(02:49):
it doesn't seem like you have the same sentiment.
Speaker 3 (02:53):
Well, I mean, I'm a quant, I'm a fundamental quant,
and I will confirm that our models toightened up, and
the models would like us to be in the top
five percent. The krem lakrem. The way those models work
is when the mark goes down five percent, we can
withstand that. When it goes down twenty, we can't withstand it.
(03:13):
They throw the baby out with the bath water. But
fortunately the baby's bounced yesterday. And I mean, you know,
I Portfolo is up over nineteen percent yesterday, and it
was a big bounce. I mean, obviously we got spanked today,
So I feel very confident that when earnings come out,
things will right itself.
Speaker 2 (03:32):
I mean, you just don't care about do you care
about backward earnings or you're saying that you are confident
that the outlooks are going to be good too.
Speaker 3 (03:40):
No, I'm on the outlooks. I don't have analyst cuts.
I have eighties bocks I own. I do not have
analyst cuts. I'm not talking about the top down strategists
of low where they're targets the SMP, and I'm talking
about the actual analysts that cover the companies. So I'm
pretty insulated right now, and I'm very comfortable. You know,
my largest holdings are Navidian super Micro. You saw how
(04:03):
they bounced. I have a big holding in Lily. Obviously
it's struggling here with the fear of you know, the
tariffs on the pharmaceutical ingredients and all. But yeah, this
could have been rolled out a lot better. Obviously Peter
Navarro was fighting with Elon and all that stuff, and
that didn't help. You know. Also, I did notice a
lot of the negative press was coming from outside America,
(04:26):
and you know, those markets would gap down and it
would put us in a pispour mood, and this is
the previous days. But you know, the good news is
they they're responding to the market. Who knew that Trump's
social was one of the best ways to call the market?
And that's controversial itself.
Speaker 1 (04:45):
Go on with that, What do you mean, well, he.
Speaker 3 (04:48):
Told everybody to buy yesterday morning before the market opened.
Speaker 2 (04:54):
You believe that?
Speaker 3 (04:56):
Yeah, No, he'd be put in print. It was all
in cap with three x on. No.
Speaker 2 (05:00):
No, I mean I saw that, but I mean, yeah.
Speaker 3 (05:05):
Well, we didn't tell us what to buy. I didn't
tell us why we should buy cars or houses or stocks.
You know. So he's not going to get persecuted for
I know Adam Shiff wants to persecute.
Speaker 1 (05:16):
Him, but.
Speaker 3 (05:17):
You know, it's it's uh. I found that to be
very interesting, you know.
Speaker 1 (05:22):
Louis, given what we learned in the last twenty seven hours,
this ninety day pause, does is that just kicking the
can down the road here? Did he? Why not?
Speaker 3 (05:36):
No? Well, there's two things. First, we're going to have
a ten percent tariff. Okay, those those are non negotiable.
And the reason they're doing that is we have a
big underground economy. So I'm in California where twenty percent
of people don't have bank accounts, and guess what, you
either have to put a vat tax on him or tariffs.
So that's what they're going to do to get more
tax revenue. As far as the reciprocal tariffs, it looks
(05:58):
like most countries will you know, Israel's at the standard,
and but even when they cave, Trump's still trying to
extract business from them, you know, like, what are you
gonna buy. You're gonna buy energy, you're gonna buy food.
What are you gonna buy? And so I think that's
what's complicating the tariff negotiations is they have to guilt
you to buy stuff. And so in the end, we
(06:21):
are going to get a lot of on shoring and
we are going to have a boom, but we've created
a tremendous amount of uncertainty. So any company that warns
okay or a guide's lower is obviously going to get shot.
And yeah, you said we're going to get a boom.
Speaker 2 (06:38):
So you believe that this trade policy is a good thing.
Speaker 3 (06:43):
Because in the end we're gonna have free or trade
in the end, except for the ten percent, and obviously
we're having a fight with China. We're having an economic
war with China right now.
Speaker 1 (06:51):
That's a that's a pretty big trading partner to have
a war with. Given that these are one hundred and
forty five percent tariffs, When do those get resolved?
Speaker 3 (07:01):
I don't think they get resolved. I think you know,
she's got his own problems in China, you know, and
he's got a deflation problem, and the Financial Times talked
about they might have to devalue the currency. Their rates
are lower than than Japan. The fact they are the
new Japan. They're losing millions of people a year, they're
(07:21):
losing households. They got problem after problem after problem. So
we'll see if cooler heads prevail. But she got rid
of all the reformers, the ones that were running the
economy a few years ago. So you know, it's just
two egos going at it, and they might respect each other,
but I don't know if they can get it done.
Speaker 2 (07:42):
Hey, Louis, have you been moving any money into like
Europe and money outside the United States?
Speaker 3 (07:49):
No? No, because I'm expecting the dollar to get its
mojo back. You know that. In fact, if the dollar
does get its mojo back, it's going to help squell
those temper tariffs. You know, you know, but we already
had a great CPI and we don't see the inflation yet.
(08:09):
But you know, if I'm a if I'm ordering things,
I think there's it's chaos right now. And in meantime,
we've had all these goods dumped on America. I assume
they're going to discount them and sell them. I mean,
you know, so I think that the you know, I
think we'll be okay, but we need some leadership and
I think we'll get it from our semiconductors and some
(08:32):
other places. And meantime, we do have an energy problem
because oil prices are so low, the permium is not
going to be profitable. So that's going to be interesting development.
So if I was Trump, I'd start putting oil in
the strategic patrol and reserve to put a floor under this.
Because he doesn't he doesn't need a boom bust in
the oil patch.
Speaker 1 (08:52):
What happens if we do get a boom bust.
Speaker 3 (08:55):
Well, we're already having a bus now. We don't have
a natural gas problem, we have an oil problem.
Speaker 1 (08:59):
You call this, you call it this a bust right now?
Speaker 3 (09:03):
Yes, because the permium will stop, will stop drilling.
Speaker 2 (09:06):
Yeah, because it's just not profitable, right, like you can't.
You got to have a certain price in order for
it to make business.
Speaker 3 (09:12):
H Alberta is hurting. You know, this hurts Alberta. You
know they have to you know, they have to use
natural gas to steam the tar sands. So this and
then now we put we will obviously want to a
tariff on the Alberta oil. I think it's ten percent.
So I was actually at our largo when the Alberta
premieer was there and she was not happy. Okay, this
(09:33):
is before things escalated. Okay, tell us more. She wasn't happy.
She's they're sucking up to Trump. She has to because
that's where the pipelines are. You know, Canada used to
put oil on trains, but in twenty thirteen one of
them overturned and wiped out a nice Quebec town and
killed forty some people. So basically there are there's no
(09:56):
place for Alberta to ship the oil except America, and
we have and and now we're putting a little terror
at least two percent tariff on that.
Speaker 2 (10:04):
Yeah, so Louis, I have to ask we just got
about I don't know thirty forty seconds here. Wait, you
said you were at mar A Lago, So were you
talking with the president?
Speaker 3 (10:12):
No? No, he's president now. When he before he was president,
he would run around kind of like he's the mater
d and he was very friendly. But when he is president,
his area is roped off, and you know, he waves
to everybody knows who some of us are.
Speaker 1 (10:29):
Were you talking with him before he was president.
Speaker 3 (10:32):
Yes, he'd come in and say hi, but he pretends
he knows me. I don't think he knows who I am.
I'm not a member. I guess can invite it a lot.
I do live in Florida.
Speaker 2 (10:40):
All right, listen, appreciate getting some time with you, and
I'm sure we'll come back to you in the near future.
Louis b While Louis Navalier, Chairman, founder and CIO of
Navalier and Associates.
Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. This is Bloomberg Business
Week with Carol Masser and Tim Stenovek on Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 2 (00:14):
Can I just say I'm exhausted. I want to see
what Louis Navalier has to say. He has seen his
share of crises, volatility, market cycles. He's chairman, founder and CEO,
ce io excuse me of Navalier and associates. And he
joins us.
Speaker 1 (00:26):
From Rancho, Santa Fe, California.
Speaker 3 (00:29):
Nice. Nice?
Speaker 1 (00:30):
Are you just north of San Diego. I don't even
know why he's inside right now. He should be outside,
I know, but it's a beautiful.
Speaker 2 (00:37):
Play and go really, so then you're not worried about
the market.
Speaker 3 (00:42):
No, no, because I have good earnings and the real
good earnings kick off next week with Taiwan Semi Conductor,
although I don't own that stock, but it's a bell weather.
I think Netflix will probably okay, and then we'll start
to focus on earnings and I live core or so
I think there's four months of efficient markets, which is
(01:03):
earning season, and eight months of mean reversion, and the
mean reversion season will end soon.
Speaker 2 (01:09):
Wait, okay, so we wait.
Speaker 1 (01:12):
I'm just like this jumb found you. You know what,
you should have gone and played at golf of a
game of golf to Carrol because it relaxes you, apparently,
and everything is fine.
Speaker 2 (01:22):
How do you so, what's your read on Washington? What's
you read on the president?
Speaker 1 (01:28):
And what you read on tariffs?
Speaker 3 (01:30):
The bond vigilantes are in charge. Obviously they had a
Scott Best that had meeting with President Trump, and how
Howard was there our Commerce secretary. Those are both experts
in treasuries and the bond vigilanities took over, so they
had to they had to put the ninety day suspension on.
Speaker 2 (01:49):
But so then, what do you think was going on
in the White House today as we saw a bunch
of selling.
Speaker 3 (01:54):
I think the bond vigilantes are still in charge. We
had a thirty year bond auction and we got away
with it, but the dollars a week Apparently a lot
of people own our treasuries are net sellers, and they're
just not as friendly as they used to be. I
personally think that rates will collapse in Europe and then
the dollar will get its mojo back. But for the
(02:17):
short term, these big and soutional bond players are in charge,
and they allowed our treasure yields to spike, and they
had to do something, so they put the ninety days
suspension on.
Speaker 1 (02:28):
Hey, Rich we spoke, I mean, excuse me, Louis, we
spoke to Rich Weise at American Century Investments. I'm looking
at my notes here to go back to what he
told us. He called this uncertainty on steroids. He said
he's not buying the dips. He said, this downturn is
more serious than other ones. He called it man made
in a catastrophe. He was pretty dour. He had warnings,
(02:49):
it doesn't seem like you have the same sentiment.
Speaker 3 (02:53):
Well, I mean, I'm a quant, I'm a fundamental quant,
and I will confirm that our models toightened up, and
the models would like us to be in the top
five percent. The krem lakrem. The way those models work
is when the mark goes down five percent, we can
withstand that. When it goes down twenty, we can't withstand it.
(03:13):
They throw the baby out with the bath water. But
fortunately the baby's bounced yesterday. And I mean, you know,
I Portfolo is up over nineteen percent yesterday, and it
was a big bounce. I mean, obviously we got spanked today,
So I feel very confident that when earnings come out,
things will right itself.
Speaker 2 (03:32):
I mean, you just don't care about do you care
about backward earnings or you're saying that you are confident
that the outlooks are going to be good too.
Speaker 3 (03:40):
No, I'm on the outlooks. I don't have analyst cuts.
I have eighties bocks I own. I do not have
analyst cuts. I'm not talking about the top down strategists
of low where they're targets the SMP, and I'm talking
about the actual analysts that cover the companies. So I'm
pretty insulated right now, and I'm very comfortable. You know,
my largest holdings are Navidian super Micro. You saw how
(04:03):
they bounced. I have a big holding in Lily. Obviously
it's struggling here with the fear of you know, the
tariffs on the pharmaceutical ingredients and all. But yeah, this
could have been rolled out a lot better. Obviously Peter
Navarro was fighting with Elon and all that stuff, and
that didn't help. You know. Also, I did notice a
lot of the negative press was coming from outside America,
(04:26):
and you know, those markets would gap down and it
would put us in a pispour mood, and this is
the previous days. But you know, the good news is
they they're responding to the market. Who knew that Trump's
social was one of the best ways to call the market?
And that's controversial itself.
Speaker 1 (04:45):
Go on with that, What do you mean, well, he.
Speaker 3 (04:48):
Told everybody to buy yesterday morning before the market opened.
Speaker 2 (04:54):
You believe that?
Speaker 3 (04:56):
Yeah, No, he'd be put in print. It was all
in cap with three x on. No.
Speaker 2 (05:00):
No, I mean I saw that, but I mean, yeah.
Speaker 3 (05:05):
Well, we didn't tell us what to buy. I didn't
tell us why we should buy cars or houses or stocks.
You know. So he's not going to get persecuted for
I know Adam Shiff wants to persecute.
Speaker 1 (05:16):
Him, but.
Speaker 3 (05:17):
You know, it's it's uh. I found that to be
very interesting, you know.
Speaker 1 (05:22):
Louis, given what we learned in the last twenty seven hours,
this ninety day pause, does is that just kicking the
can down the road here? Did he? Why not?
Speaker 3 (05:36):
No? Well, there's two things. First, we're going to have
a ten percent tariff. Okay, those those are non negotiable.
And the reason they're doing that is we have a
big underground economy. So I'm in California where twenty percent
of people don't have bank accounts, and guess what, you
either have to put a vat tax on him or tariffs.
So that's what they're going to do to get more
tax revenue. As far as the reciprocal tariffs, it looks
(05:58):
like most countries will you know, Israel's at the standard,
and but even when they cave, Trump's still trying to
extract business from them, you know, like, what are you
gonna buy. You're gonna buy energy, you're gonna buy food.
What are you gonna buy? And so I think that's
what's complicating the tariff negotiations is they have to guilt
you to buy stuff. And so in the end, we
(06:21):
are going to get a lot of on shoring and
we are going to have a boom, but we've created
a tremendous amount of uncertainty. So any company that warns
okay or a guide's lower is obviously going to get shot.
And yeah, you said we're going to get a boom.
Speaker 2 (06:38):
So you believe that this trade policy is a good thing.
Speaker 3 (06:43):
Because in the end we're gonna have free or trade
in the end, except for the ten percent, and obviously
we're having a fight with China. We're having an economic
war with China right now.
Speaker 1 (06:51):
That's a that's a pretty big trading partner to have
a war with. Given that these are one hundred and
forty five percent tariffs, When do those get resolved?
Speaker 3 (07:01):
I don't think they get resolved. I think you know,
she's got his own problems in China, you know, and
he's got a deflation problem, and the Financial Times talked
about they might have to devalue the currency. Their rates
are lower than than Japan. The fact they are the
new Japan. They're losing millions of people a year, they're
(07:21):
losing households. They got problem after problem after problem. So
we'll see if cooler heads prevail. But she got rid
of all the reformers, the ones that were running the
economy a few years ago. So you know, it's just
two egos going at it, and they might respect each other,
but I don't know if they can get it done.
Speaker 2 (07:42):
Hey, Louis, have you been moving any money into like
Europe and money outside the United States?
Speaker 3 (07:49):
No? No, because I'm expecting the dollar to get its
mojo back. You know that. In fact, if the dollar
does get its mojo back, it's going to help squell
those temper tariffs. You know, you know, but we already
had a great CPI and we don't see the inflation yet.
(08:09):
But you know, if I'm a if I'm ordering things,
I think there's it's chaos right now. And in meantime,
we've had all these goods dumped on America. I assume
they're going to discount them and sell them. I mean,
you know, so I think that the you know, I
think we'll be okay, but we need some leadership and
I think we'll get it from our semiconductors and some
(08:32):
other places. And meantime, we do have an energy problem
because oil prices are so low, the permium is not
going to be profitable. So that's going to be interesting development.
So if I was Trump, I'd start putting oil in
the strategic patrol and reserve to put a floor under this.
Because he doesn't he doesn't need a boom bust in
the oil patch.
Speaker 1 (08:52):
What happens if we do get a boom bust.
Speaker 3 (08:55):
Well, we're already having a bus now. We don't have
a natural gas problem, we have an oil problem.
Speaker 1 (08:59):
You call this, you call it this a bust right now?
Speaker 3 (09:03):
Yes, because the permium will stop, will stop drilling.
Speaker 2 (09:06):
Yeah, because it's just not profitable, right, like you can't.
You got to have a certain price in order for
it to make business.
Speaker 3 (09:12):
H Alberta is hurting. You know, this hurts Alberta. You
know they have to you know, they have to use
natural gas to steam the tar sands. So this and
then now we put we will obviously want to a
tariff on the Alberta oil. I think it's ten percent.
So I was actually at our largo when the Alberta
premieer was there and she was not happy. Okay, this
(09:33):
is before things escalated. Okay, tell us more. She wasn't happy.
She's they're sucking up to Trump. She has to because
that's where the pipelines are. You know, Canada used to
put oil on trains, but in twenty thirteen one of
them overturned and wiped out a nice Quebec town and
killed forty some people. So basically there are there's no
(09:56):
place for Alberta to ship the oil except America, and
we have and and now we're putting a little terror
at least two percent tariff on that.
Speaker 2 (10:04):
Yeah, so Louis, I have to ask we just got
about I don't know thirty forty seconds here. Wait, you
said you were at mar A Lago, So were you
talking with the president?
Speaker 3 (10:12):
No? No, he's president now. When he before he was president,
he would run around kind of like he's the mater
d and he was very friendly. But when he is president,
his area is roped off, and you know, he waves
to everybody knows who some of us are.
Speaker 1 (10:29):
Were you talking with him before he was president.
Speaker 3 (10:32):
Yes, he'd come in and say hi, but he pretends
he knows me. I don't think he knows who I am.
I'm not a member. I guess can invite it a lot.
I do live in Florida.
Speaker 2 (10:40):
All right, listen, appreciate getting some time with you, and
I'm sure we'll come back to you in the near future.
Louis b While Louis Navalier, Chairman, founder and CIO of
Navalier and Associates.
Hosts And Creators
Tim Stenovec
Carol Massar
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