Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Neil Dutta & Kate Moore

Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.

In this episode, we feature conversations with Neil Dutta & Kate Moore.

Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news on a Friday after
an historic week. It is single best idea. Too many
voices to pick from today. Thank you particularly to Dartmouth College.

(00:23):
They have Douglas Erwin with us the other day and
David Blancheflow this morning. Was an honor, but so many
others have Claudias sam with us in Neil Dudda on
the Jobs Day, all the work the team has done,
particularly to Bloomberg people at Bloomberg News in Bloomberg Intelligence
weighing in on this historic moment. Let us start with

(00:44):
Neil Dudda after the jobs report, Neil Duddy here in
the state of the consumer in what was fascinating looking
at the upper decile, upper quintile of American prosperity when
in doubt, save.

Speaker 2 (00:58):
What you're gonna SAE. Basically the high end consumer, which
has been the core source of support for consumer spending
over the last year, they are going to jack up
their savings rate as a result of this. I mean
you're in a situation now where stock prices are going down. Right.
The elevated level of stock prices is one reason why

(01:19):
net worth was rising relative to income last year, which
is why consumer spending was so strong, because people drew
down their savings As a result, you have the opposite
situation now, So what do you think is going to
happen with the savings rate? It's going to go up.
As a baseline, consumer spending wasn't going to be really
much stronger than one and a half percent right now,
because that's where real income growth has kind of been

(01:40):
tracking net of transfers. So we've already seen quite sluggish income.
So even a stable savings rate gets you that if
the savings rates going up, you're going to have something
weaker than that. So you can see already how it's
very challenging to get to a anything better than Really
the best I can come up with is like below
potential growth environment.

Speaker 1 (02:01):
Still Neil Dudda there, he was absolutely brilliant on the
labor dynamic. He made very clear that he's more interested
in the revisions back one month, back two months than
the actual data point today. I just noticed it's a
blur here in our world headquarters where you see headlines
out of all different sources of media. To see Canada

(02:23):
lose twenty two thousand jobs today is really something we
didn't talk about that live on the program, we had
the pleasure of speaking with Kate Moore of City Group,
She's in charge of City Group Wealth Management, and coming
up with a kogent tone on the present crisis the
view forward. Kate Moore of City Well, here's why.

Speaker 3 (02:45):
I don't want to hear them say, Paul. I don't
want them to say we're pulling guidance all together because
we have no visibility. I want them to at least
present scenario analysis and in some ways that they may
be able to buffer the challenges overcoming months and quarters.
This scenario where companies coal guidance would be so sentiment negative,
I think we see actually a big leg down in

(03:06):
that scenario. And I'm going to be watching very very
closely what companies talk about not just for the next
three months, but for the balance of the year.

Speaker 4 (03:14):
You know, whatever they talk about in terms of their
first three months of performance, yes, that's going to be important,
but it's really going to be the earnings revisions that
come out of the supporting season that are going to
be critical for risk.

Speaker 1 (03:25):
Kate marsh City there and yesterday at the Game Forum
of Quinnipiac College, sixteen hundred kids Matt Lazetti said exactly
the same thing from Deutsche Bank that you just heard
from Kate Moore, This idea that within an economy things
can drift away. We'll have to see how that goes.

(03:45):
Thank you so much for your interest this week on YouTube,
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is a single best idea seven