Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Jeff deGraaf & Brian Belski

Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.

In this episode, we feature conversations with Jeff deGraaf & Brian Belski.

Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

Speaker 2 (00:14):
Single best idea, and I tell you it's really something
out there, folks. It's been twenty four to seven for
everyone at Bloomberg News. I think it's been written up nicely.
Our read O Gagory, I know, is out with an
interview in Semaphore about the absolute exhaustion of doing this
truly twenty four to seven. Let me describe the day,
and not my day, because nobody really cares what I'm doing,

(00:36):
but the staff here in the trenches, someone like Emily
Graffeo who joined us today from the equity team. It's
not like eight hours, Oh there's a crisis, Let's extend
out two or three hours. It's always there and the
constraint in the modern day is I'm not going to
look at my cell phone for twenty minutes. It's literally

(00:58):
what it's become. And it starts early in the morning.
We get through the day and there's a window somewhere
in the vicinity of four point thirty. We're from four
thirty to six twenty five. I'm making it up. There's
a gap where the markets don't matter, and then it
picks up right again at seven pm, as Tokyo opens,
and we see what the dollar will do, We see

(01:20):
what gold will do with the moonshot up thirty five
hundred today, and also, quite frankly, the different dynamics, very
sophisticated dynamics out there. John Ferroll sent me a chart
today of euro Chinese were in Minby. I looked at
it in ages and there it was. It's a hockey
stick chart of strong euro and we are in ninby something.

(01:42):
You know, the instabilities that you see over particularly with
European trade, much a larger world trade than what we
have in the United States on a percentage basis. We
did look at the equity markets Brian Belski in a moment,
but first Jeffrey de Graph of Renaissance Macro jeff de
Graph on this bear market.

Speaker 3 (02:01):
Our bear market is not about being down twenty percent.
It's not some magical number. It really is about the
combination of the increase in volatility, the decrease in returns
and what that's happening on a trend basis, and those
are all sloping downwards now. So in our book, that
is the definition of a bear market, and that really
kicked in about a month ago. So it's not. This
is not a new phenomenon. This has been something that's

(02:21):
in play, and I do think that that's important as
we think about it from a longer term perspective, the
question is is has sentiment outdone itself in the very
near term to get a really nice rally, And that's
where we are. We think we can rally back to
at least fifty five hundred, probably close to fifty seven hundred,
and then the question will be how did we get there.
Did we get there with momentum? Did we get there
with a change in the attitude? If we didn't, then

(02:44):
that's a rally to sell for those.

Speaker 2 (02:45):
Of you in the market. That's a brilliantly clear discussion
and that is the foundation of Jeff to graph with
the economics of Neil Dutta, his fundamental analysis and also
his important technical analysis as well. One of the things
that's important is to identify a trend or a point
of debate. The word is distinction that I use the

(03:08):
distinction between guest A and guest B. And right now,
absolutely the primary distinction within what we do in economics, finance, investment,
and international relations is are we in a sea change
shift in the this is from Thomas Kuhn. I'm going
to guess nineteen forty eight at Harvard a paradigmatic shift

(03:33):
or is it going to be Okay? This was harsh,
It's going to get fixed and we get back to
some kind of normal. It is a raging debate. I'm
trying to keep myself out of the debate. It's not
my job to have an opinion on it. I'm not
going to give you opinion now. But I know a
lot of you are laughing at me here because you
can hear the opinion through the show. What a joy

(03:56):
to speak to Brian Belski today, a BMO capital market
who doesn't know how to spell paradigm.

Speaker 1 (04:01):
Many of my compatriots, colleagues and competitors are not staying
in their lane. They've become now amateur psychologists that are
diagnosing personality disorders, where they should actually be focusing more
on what's happening in the economy in terms of the earnings.
Here's what we here's what we know. We don't know
exactly how long this is going to last. We've already

(04:23):
positioned we meaning consensus, that this is going to take
years and years and years and years to unfold. So
I believe that the majority of portfolios strategists economists are
already positioned for the worst case scenario. What we believe
in our standing in terms of the investment Strategy group
at BEMO, is this could all be over in a
matter of days. We're not trying to be Pollyanna or flippant.

(04:46):
We believe in the inherent strength of the US economy,
the US stock market, and we still believe that we
have the best assets in the world, and we're going
to take negativity to add to those assets.

Speaker 2 (04:57):
Brian Belski, BEMO Capital Markets. I should also suggest us
that he thinks the Minnesota Vikings are destined for the
Super Bowl this year. An extraordinary time we're living in,
of course, our team down at the meetings of the
IMF and the World Bank, as well as a good
team being put together for the remembrances of the Pope

(05:17):
this week in Rome, Italy. We're across the nation. Look
for us on YouTube, subscribe to Bloomberg podcasts and on
YouTube podcasts. It's single best idea