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April 23, 2025 44 mins

One of the stated goals for the current trade war is to build more industrial capacity in the United States. So far there doesn't seem to be much of it happening. In fact, all of the manufacturing surveys (and all evidence) so far suggests the reverse. But not that long ago there was a concerted effort to build more factories in the United States. Under President Biden there was a whole host of new industrial announcements funded in part via the CHIPS Act and the Inflation Reduction Act. But did we get anything from these bills? Do we have anything to show for it? Why is building more capacity in the United States so difficult? On this episode, we spoke with Hassan Khan, who recently left his position as the director of economic security in the CHIPS Program Office at the Department of Commerce, about what he learned, what he saw, what could be done differently, and what the results are actually were.

Read more:
With US Chips Act Money Mostly Divvied Up, the Real Test Begins
TSMC’s Arizona Chip Production Yields Surpass Taiwan’s
US Chip Grants in Limbo as Lutnick Pushes Bigger Investments

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    Episode Transcript

    Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
    Speaker 1 (00:02):
    Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News.

    Speaker 2 (00:18):
    Hello and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots podcast.

    Speaker 3 (00:21):
    I'm Joe Wisenthal and I'm Tracy Alloway.

    Speaker 2 (00:24):
    Tracy, I just wrote about this in our newsletter like
    five minutes ago. But it drives me nuts. How on
    all of the talk about reindustrialization of America everyone had
    just completely memory hold, like twenty twenty two and twenty
    twenty three.

    Speaker 3 (00:38):
    Well, this is the amazing thing, right, We did have
    a big investment program actually announced under the Biden administration,
    like huge amounts of money, billions of dollars, and no
    one seems to be talking about it that much, or
    at least a very important segment seems to be ignoring it,
    and that is the Trump administration. Trump. I think he

    (01:01):
    said before that he thought it was a horrible policy.

    Speaker 2 (01:04):
    Yeah.

    Speaker 3 (01:05):
    I suspect the reason he thinks it's horrible is because
    it was a Biden thing. But it is also amazing
    that like even this, even making more semiconductors in the US,
    ended up being politicized and a sort of culture war issue.

    Speaker 4 (01:21):
    It's just crazy to me.

    Speaker 2 (01:23):
    It's totally insane to me, of all these influencers and
    LARPers or so we need to bring back physical manufacturing
    and national security, etc. As if this hasn't been a
    dominant thing in US discourse for years, is if there
    weren't literally battery and chip factories being announced almost every day.
    Throw at twenty twenty two and twenty twenty three, all
    across the US. It was not just a program. It

    (01:45):
    was like an actual like breaking ground and new things
    were going up and dollars spent by the private sector
    partially to get public subsidies, et cetera. You could certainly
    say that it was like badly designed, or that it
    was wrong, or there were too many rules whatever, like
    all you know, that's all of this is fair play.
    But the idea that suddenly this is just some new

    (02:07):
    impulse and not like something that's real, existing reindustrialization that's
    going on, I find it infuriating or at the very
    least very annoying.

    Speaker 3 (02:17):
    Shall we fix that, Joe, Let's fix it.

    Speaker 2 (02:19):
    Well, we should talk about what actually happened, right, because
    it does seem like, either literally or de facto or
    dejerie or whatever, the plug is being pulled on a
    lot of these different programs, and now there's talk about
    industrialization but the hope is that tariffs themselves spur all
    of this domestic investment in physical things for people to

    (02:39):
    do assembly line jobs, et cetera. But we should learn
    a little bit more.

    Speaker 3 (02:44):
    We should talk about what trips actually are as well,
    because you know, yes, boost manufacturing in the US, create
    new jobs, spur some private investment, sort of public private idea,
    But there are a lot of different like threads that
    you can pull here into in terms of the actual goals.

    Speaker 2 (03:01):
    Well, we should learn a little bit more about what
    the Chips program actually was, and I it does still exist,
    but I'm not really sure if it seems like it's
    more of a husk than it was. We're going to
    be speaking with someone we know very well, someone we've
    known on the internet a long time, someone who even
    came on Odd Lots one several years ago, who actually
    worked in the Chips Program office. We were speaking with

    (03:22):
    Hussan Khan. He was the director of Economic Security at
    the Chips Program Office. I believe he's officially left the
    job so he could talk now about what he saw
    inside Hustin. Thank you so much for coming back on
    Odd Lots Joe Tracy.

    Speaker 4 (03:39):
    It's always a pleasure you know your intro there. I
    feel very similarly. I really do feel like we forgot
    about what was accomplished in honestly less than two years,
    so excited to talk about it. What are you tells us?

    Speaker 2 (03:51):
    What did you do as the Director of Economic Security
    at the Chips Program Office? What was that job?

    Speaker 4 (03:57):
    So if you look at why we passed the Chips
    and Science Act, Congress and the President came together and said,
    our reliance on offshore manufacturing for semiconductors presents both an
    economic and national security threat. And we saw that play
    out in real time during the pandemic. When we couldn't

    (04:18):
    make cars, we couldn't make a whole host of goods.
    Prices went up that posed an economic security threat because
    people were losing their jobs. Obviously there's a national security
    angle as well, because we were reliant on overseas factories
    for chips that go into military equipment. And as the
    Director of Economic Security, my role was for it was
    sort of twofold first, helping sort of set the strategy.

    (04:40):
    What was our vision for what we wanted to accomplish
    with the Chips Program Office. So before I joined, we
    published a vision for success paper in February of twenty
    twenty three. I'm actually quite astonished. I think very few
    people who talk about chips actually read that paper, and
    I still think it's worth reading because it laid out
    a roadmap for what we wanted to do within the
    different categories. And then the second job that I had
    was helping our teams understand the value of each proposed

    (05:05):
    project to US economic security. So why would the factory
    that X company is proposing improve our economic security? And
    obviously there are different ways in which you can do that,
    whether that's advancing technological capabilities, improving supply chain resilience, plugging
    various gaps in the supply chain, et cetera, et cetera.
    And that's why we did sort of a deal by
    deal analysis on those metrics. But it was really that

    (05:26):
    twofold going not just strategically across the portfolio, but on
    a deal by deal basis.

    Speaker 3 (05:32):
    I wanted to ask you about exactly this because I
    imagine there are trade offs when you're deciding what or
    who to fund. Do you fund stuff that's going to
    have the most immediate impact make headlines, or do you
    finance stuff that maybe it takes longer to build but
    it's going to have a bigger effect on the economy
    or national security. If you're looking at two pitches on

    (05:54):
    your desk or I guess it was an online application
    like a portal, but you're looking at those applications and
    one is for building I don't know, in video GPUs
    and the other is like making an improvement on basic
    chips that go into MCUs and cars or whatever, lagging
    versus leading. How do you decide between those different proposals.

    Speaker 4 (06:16):
    So, Tracy, that's a great question, and I would say
    what complicated that decision making process was when the bill
    was passed in August of twenty twenty two, we were
    solely focused as a country on the impact of shortages.
    And then it was in November of twenty twenty two
    that chat GPT came out and suddenly the conversation shifted

    (06:37):
    very rapidly to AI supremacy. So in real time, you know,
    if you ask Congressman why are you passing this bill,
    they would have said, well, we can't have these car shutdowns,
    or we can't have car factory shutting down. Appliances are
    too expensive. And then by early twenty twenty three, it
    was what we have to win the AI race so
    we sat back as an office and we really said,
    we don't want to be chasing just one category. And

    (07:00):
    I think again our strategy was, we want to make
    sure we're making investments across the entire supply chain. So
    we said, hey, we're going to functionally target a majority
    of our funding, the vast majority of our funding towards
    the leading edge. Why those are the most expensive facilities.
    So Intel, TSMC, Samsung and Micron between them got nearly
    twenty eight twenty nine billion dollars and don't you know,
    you can check my math afterwards. Knowing that getting those

    (07:24):
    facilities in the United States at the scale that they
    were investing in has downstream consequences too, because now you're
    building out the supply chain necessary for the entire industry,
    and that spills over to some of the other facilities
    that are going to come up online. We did have
    a statutory requirement to invest at least two billion dollars
    in what we're called legacy node chips, and our office
    spend a lot of time trying to understand what our

    (07:47):
    strategy could be on shoring up legacy supply. So we
    made investments, you know, large ones in TI and global
    foundries that are in the sort of meat of the
    legacy node supply chain. But we also made actually dozens
    of investments that I think at short shrift because they
    just aren't as headline grabbing, but they plugged up a
    lot of our capabilities in rf in power, summi conductors,

    (08:09):
    the sort of un sexy types of electronics that are
    critical not just for infrastructure today but infrastructure in the future.
    And how we thought about trade offs. I think the
    way we tried to think about it was we really
    tried to bucket our funds and say, hey, for the
    leading edge, we want to be able to say, preserve
    x amount of our budget. It was about that twenty
    eight billion dollars for the leading edge and make sure

    (08:31):
    that we retain sufficient funding on the back end for
    the legacy nodes, for advanced packaging, for the supply chain,
    because we knew that we needed to make investments across
    the entire supply chain just get to the resilience. That was,
    you know, the reason that the bill was passed.

    Speaker 2 (08:46):
    All right, I have a question, and you could just
    be totally honest, you know, I'll give it to one
    of the criticisms of Biden era industrial policy that is
    frequently made from our abundance brothers and sisters, is that yes,
    there were all of these efforts, but you know, you
    couldn't get the money unless you had a certain amount
    of workforce diversity, and you had to do a land

    (09:08):
    acknowledgment on where you were going to build the factory,
    and also you had to have like childcare, etc. And
    it's like, well, do you want to build the chip
    plant or not? Because if you do, then why did
    you put all of these other burdens that have nothing
    to do with building chips per se onto the money?
    In your experience, what is the role of these other
    elements in the speed of grant programs or project development

    (09:33):
    in the US?

    Speaker 4 (09:35):
    I know this is a topic that gets Frankly, I
    think it gets way too much air time. And I'll
    tell you why. First, there were statutory requirements that came
    from Congress on what the proposals had to be. Right.
    So Congress themselves came and said, hey, if you're making
    a project proposal, you need to have opportunity and inclusion
    language or what your commitments are to community investments. If

    (09:58):
    you look at the DFAs that we write, the direct
    funding agreements, the terms that we had around what you
    might call everything. Bagel policy basically codified the commitments the
    firms themselves had made to the communities that they were
    investing in. It essentially said, hey, you told the community
    that you were going to be investing in, you know,
    the schools or water reclamation projects, whatever those community investment

    (10:20):
    funds could be. All we're doing is memorializing that commitment
    that you've made. Secondly, on childcare, this is another one
    that first in terms of the amount of funding that
    we put towards it, I think it was a total
    of about ten million dollars across the thirty nine billion, Okay,
    So it was never a focus. It never became in

    (10:40):
    any of the negotiations that I set in a discussion
    where the company came back and said, hey, we really
    want to build this plant, but the million dollars that
    you're giving us for childcare and the requirements that you
    have simply aren't enough. Many of these firms are investing
    in child care facilities for their workers anyways, and you
    see it like there's Wall Street Journal report a few
    months ago about a company that wanted to expand and
    with new workers that were mostly coming from like Hispanic background,

    (11:03):
    and they found that the biggest thing they could do
    to help bring them on was have childcare on site,
    because their workers were like, I can't come to the
    office because I don't have a place to leave my kids.
    So it's just it's actually what the private sector is
    doing anyway, And oftentimes the funding that we brought to
    those initiatives actually helped them think outside the box and
    think across firms to come up with regional solutions that

    (11:24):
    scaled better than they would on a firm by firm basis.
    I will say, however, where I think critics of sort
    of the everything bagel approach do have a point is
    whereas a lot of the terms that I just described
    were not deal stoppers. They didn't slow down negotiations, they
    weren't the points of contention where there are points of
    contention between different stakeholders, I think you need top leadership

    (11:46):
    to be able to come and say our number one
    goal is to get the factory built, and various stakeholders
    have to get in line. And where I'm talking about
    stakeholders is where I think the abundance folks also speak
    to them, groups like labor and environment, right, you have
    to come and say, hey, do we want this project
    to happen? There will inevitably be trade offs. There is
    no world in which you can build a massive factory

    (12:08):
    and have zero environmental impact. Right. You have to also
    even in the context of labor, we have to understand
    that this is a globally competitive industry, and so the
    demands that labor is making have to be viewed from
    the context of like what does it take for the
    factories in the US to be globally competitive? And I
    think you need top leadership to come and say we're

    (12:30):
    not going to allow concerns that are being raised by
    the community to sort of halt negotiation. So there is
    a balance to be struck in terms of what's our
    number one goal. Is it to get the factory done
    or is it to make sure that no one's upset
    at the fact that the factory is getting done.

    Speaker 3 (13:03):
    Give us a sense of the actual timeline for the
    application process, like how quickly could you actually approve things
    on average? And then I'm curious, like what was the
    longest negotiation that you had and what were the sticking
    points there?

    Speaker 4 (13:19):
    Okay, so the process the way it worked, you first
    had to submit a what's called the statement of interest,
    and this was honestly like a one to two paragraph
    submission via Salesforce portal that basically said, we are from
    company why, and we want to build a manufacturing plant
    for semiconductors in Excity. It did not require a lot
    of details that basically, you know, it puts you on

    (13:42):
    the map of our office to say, hey, we should
    go and talk to these people and understand what they're
    really trying to build. Then we had what we called
    a pre app process, and we can come back to
    that in just a moment my thoughts on the process,
    but it essentially said, hey, submit a simplified version of
    your final application and we'll give you some preliminary a
    feedback kind of like a draft application, and will help

    (14:03):
    identify where we think on our scoring rubric you need
    to make adjustments in order to score better. By the way,
    our response to the pre app was non binding, so
    if we basically said hey we don't like your pre app,
    you could still apply and submit a full application. But
    you know, we did take into consideration whether or not
    you responded to the feedback from the pre app. The
    full application was sort of your final submission. We started

    (14:25):
    to receive for our first full applications in the late
    summer early fall of twenty twenty three, and so you
    saw we got to a first preliminary announcement by the
    end of twenty twenty three with BAE. So it took us,
    you know, on the order of about a little more
    than a quarter to get through a first full announcement.
    The exact longest negotiations that it took, I have to

    (14:49):
    think back for a moment, but we had one final
    step after the preliminary announcement following sort of exactly how
    you do it in the private equity world, you know,
    have a preliminary announcement saying, hey, we intend to make
    this investment, we intend to go forward with this, but
    it's subject to due diligence and i'd be the direct
    funding agreement. Those negotiations did drag on through twenty twenty four,
    and I think a lot of it came down to

    (15:10):
    sort of dotting the eyes and crossing the t's on
    what did it mean for the government and semiconductor firms
    to make a commitment to each other on these facilities. Right,
    There was a lot of not on the sort of
    everything bagel terms, but there was a lot of negotiation
    and what does it mean if your company is sold?
    What does it mean if you violate guardrails statutory requirements? Right?

    (15:32):
    We really had to work through that because we'd never
    worked through it as a country before with firms at
    this scale. But what you saw routinely was as we
    reached a milestone, So as we reached the first preliminary
    memorandum of terms and we reached the first direct funding agreement,
    the second, third, fourth agreements would happen much faster because
    we at that point had worked out a template and
    could say, hey, here's how other firms are thinking about

    (15:53):
    doing it. There's already comfort with this format. Let's try
    and you work off that, and you saw them happen
    in rapid succession.

    Speaker 2 (16:01):
    I want to go back to what you said we're
    talking about earlier, that the abundance people do have some
    sort of point when it comes to environmental and labor stakeholders.
    What did you see specifically? Now you don't have to
    like identify the names of the projects, but look, these
    are different parts of the Democratic Party constituency. Late, I'll

    (16:23):
    say this, the Democratic Party really wants to be liked
    by organized labor. I don't know if the organized labor,
    especially in the private sector, is a big Democratic constituents anymore.
    But Democratic Party certainly wants to be liked by organized labor.
    They certainly want people who concern about the environment talk
    to us about the reality of how these different impulses
    can collide with each other.

    Speaker 4 (16:44):
    So I think we have to take one step back
    and be honest about where we stand in terms of
    our manufacturing competitiveness. Right. I think they're a broad understanding
    that we are no longer at the frontier in a
    range of industries, and so what is it going to
    take for us to catch up to the frontier and
    be globally competitive again? We have cost disadvantages to operating

    (17:07):
    in this country, it takes longer to build. We do have,
    you know, existing regulatory frameworks that can complicate some of
    these projects, right. So, I think one of the consequences
    of this tension of there's an urgency to move fast,
    an urgency to catch up to our geopolitical competitors, but

    (17:27):
    not really a readiness to sort of tear down the
    frameworks that we had. And I think for good reason,
    you have to come back and say, well, what is
    it going to take for us to catch up and
    so on. A lot of these projects, you saw environmental
    groups raising concerns on you know, pollution impacts. You saw
    labor groups sort of saying, hey, unions are being left
    out in the cold. And I would come back and say,
    I think a lot of that really was noise because

    (17:48):
    there was like an open negotiation going on sometimes through
    the media where these various groups were trying to say, hey,
    make sure you don't forget about us. But I do
    also think for policy, you have to be able to
    come out and say what is the most important thing.
    Is it for the factory to get done on time,
    or is it that we leverage union labor or is

    (18:12):
    it that we make no impact to the environment. And
    there will be times in every complex project in the
    public or private sector, you have to make trade offs
    between different objective functions, and I think for what we
    saw was there was like an unwillingness sometimes to really
    say to stakeholders, hey, we hear your needs, but they're

    (18:34):
    gonna be second priority in order to get the project
    done right. And that complicates the discussion on how are
    we going to get these things done quickly? And I
    think there was a tension between the urgency that firms
    and folks within the Chips Program Office felt, and outside
    stakeholders who really were saying, well, don't forget about us.

    Speaker 3 (18:55):
    So you mentioned a bunch of competitive disadvantages that the
    US has, you know, things like we're starting from a
    lower base at least in terms of manufacturing, higher labor costs,
    more rules and regulations, whether it's about the environment or
    something else. Do we have any competitive advantages? I'm actually
    struggling here, but there must be something.

    Speaker 4 (19:18):
    You know. Okay, so I think maybe not? No, I
    do we do? Right? We have? If you think about it,
    the world's most advanced firms were all designing the best
    chips in the world. They're all based in the US.
    We have the best university system, so we have a
    deep talent pipeline. We have a tech stack than in
    the United States, I think is unparalleled anywhere else. But
    when it comes to being able to build a factory,

    (19:41):
    you know, I like to use the analogy of we
    basically stopped going to the gym. Do you know before
    the TSMC fab came online in late twenty twenty four,
    when the last leading edge fab in the United States
    was built, came online, No it's good. What is it?

    Speaker 2 (19:54):
    What's the answer?

    Speaker 4 (19:55):
    Twenty thirteen. So for basically a decade, we stopped building large,
    leading edge fabs in the United States, and so the
    muscle for how to build those factories atrophied. And that
    doesn't just mean construction workers, like obviously all those people
    went and probably found jobs elsewhere, but it also means
    for the regulatory apparatus for what does it mean to

    (20:15):
    understand the environmental impacts of these facilities? And so when
    you talk about the delays in construction, oftentimes those delays
    are from the permitting processes that are handled at the
    state and local level. Well, in a lot of the
    places that we're building these facilities, state and local regulators
    hadn't seen a facility like this before because we hadn't
    been building them in over a decade, and so they
    didn't know what the impacts were, and you know, it

    (20:38):
    required an education process. And I think a lot of
    the noise that we heard in the last two years
    was because we were kind of starting this again after
    not going to the gym for over a decade. And
    you know what happens when you don't go to the gym,
    you go back one time you're really really sore the
    next day, but if you keep going, your body kind
    of gets used to it. And that's why, for example,

    (20:58):
    take TSMC's FABS in Arizona, you don't hear the same
    noise about labor unions or permitting concerns over Fab two
    because the entire system sort of got into shape, right.
    And I think if the chips program off is going
    to be looked at as a success, it's going to
    be because the second, third, fourth, fifth facilities that are

    (21:19):
    being built at these sites are showing rates of learning
    in how long it takes for them to get brought online,
    brought up to speed, brought up to a similar capacity
    to what they have and their overseas benchmarks. So I
    would look at it's like the first fabs are like
    a proof of concept, can we do this? And it's
    really in the second, third, fourth fabs at these local

    (21:39):
    projects that you'll start to see the ecosystems of the church.

    Speaker 2 (21:57):
    I asked earlier about whether environmentalists in unions are restraint.
    Something else that I'm very interested in is you mentioned,
    you know, the top semiconductor companies in the world are
    actually in the United States. We just don't really make them,
    but we design them, and that's actually much more valuable.
    And in Nvidia is a much more valuable company than TSMC,

    (22:18):
    the legendary TSMC. And so, you know, I've been writing
    about for a while like how much of this is
    an issue of capitalism? And investors in semiconductor companies don't
    want US manufacturing because that's lower margins. You move that overseas,
    et cetera. You don't want design and fabrication in house

    (22:38):
    together because then you mix a high margin company with
    a low margin company, et cetera. Obviously, to some extent,
    the idea of using public money is to solve this problem.
    But just when you're look in general at the questions
    of US manufacturing and high tech areas or whatever, how
    much is it about capitalist incentives.

    Speaker 4 (22:55):
    I do think there is a tension here. I know
    you've covered this as well. You saw TI, which is
    engaging in one of the most aggressive expansions in the
    United States, hoping to build seven fabs by the middle
    of next decade. Overall, had activist investors basically pressuring them
    to reduce their capital investments. And there is a tension
    where shareholders are going to say, hey, you could return

    (23:17):
    money to me that would have better and I could
    go use it in other use cases. Yeah, I mean famously,
    look at the case of Intel, which for a long
    time was returning a lot of cash to shareholders through
    dividends and stock buybacks and fell behind the leading edge curve.
    So that tension is absolutely real. But I do think
    firms and investors understand the value of having these facilities.

    (23:39):
    I think the challenges creating a structure where the government
    can help equalize the returns so that the private value
    is similar to the public value. Let me put it
    in another way, the government highly values these manufacturing facilities being
    in the United States for the economic and national security
    reasons I laid out above, right, But private shareholders don't

    (24:01):
    value them as much. But there are levers that we
    can pull to help make them look more attractive. And
    I think the biggest under discuss lever was the Investment
    tax credit. Right. The investment tax credit is a twenty
    five percent tax credit for firms that invest in manufacturing
    in the United States. I think there's a world where
    the future of industrial policy I'm putting quotes around that

    (24:23):
    really comes and says, hey, the focus should be on
    tax credits that give firms certainty on what their cost
    structure and return structure is going to look like for
    capital investments made in the United States, and maybe the
    disbursement funding that's subject to review by bureaucrats is a
    smaller pot that is really geared towards firms that have

    (24:45):
    capital shortcomings or capital concerns. Right, So, I think you
    could plausibly make the claim that the intels and tsmcs
    of the world don't necessarily need cash from the government
    because what they're optimizing for is like an NPV function
    on their capital investments, and tax credits can solve all
    of that, in fact, can happen with less government intervention.

    (25:06):
    But there are smaller firms who really do need cash
    infusions in order to bring, you know, to bridge the
    value of death that we've been talking about for decades
    in this country but never really had an approach to SAULT.
    And I think there's a slim down version of industrial
    policy in the future that really focuses on ay tax
    credits can equalize our cost structure and make investments attractive
    where you know, we take target smaller amounts of funding

    (25:29):
    to critical technologies that we want to make sure happen
    in the United States.

    Speaker 3 (25:33):
    So on this note, I mean one of the discussions
    that inevitably pops up when you're doing this type of
    policy is public versus private and the sort of crowding
    in or crowding out effect on private capital. I imagine
    that part of the intent of the Chips Act was
    to encourage private investors to get excited about not only

    (25:56):
    you know, the importance of manufacturing here in the US,
    but also the potential returns. To your point about the
    tax credit, did you see a change in behavior on
    the part of private investors. Did you ever talk to
    them about, you know, what their concerns were or what
    they wanted to see from this program. And were you successful,

    (26:16):
    I guess in making chips manufacturing cool again.

    Speaker 4 (26:20):
    I think we were. I think the Investment Office, led
    by Todd Fisher, did a lot of outreach to the
    investment community broadly to help them understand not just our approach,
    but how we were working with firms to make these
    investments more attractive in the United States. And you know,
    I think there's a broad recognition that being able to

    (26:40):
    build industrial capacity in the US has benefits beyond just
    the balance sheet. That being said, I do think it's
    an ongoing discussion with the investment community on how do
    we build certainty in these you know, government programs. Right. So,
    the the biggest thing that the Chips Program Office did

    (27:02):
    was it gave firms confidence in what their returns would
    look like if they invested in the US because they
    had a tax credit and award dollars that would come
    to them, and they could go to their investors and say, hey, look,
    there is a cost disadvantage, but we feel confident that
    we'll be able to reduce it with the public dollars
    that are coming in. And I really think the biggest

    (27:23):
    lever that the government can pull is giving firms certainty
    when they're making twenty to hundred billion dollar investments, because
    they don't want to be caught on the wrong side
    by a policy change that now gets them underwater on
    a facility that's half done, And the sunk costs of
    building a facility and half getting it half equipped are

    (27:43):
    really large, and so I think that is the challenge
    for a lot of these firms and for investors. They
    want to be able to say, hey, is what we're
    modeling really going to hold in the long term from
    a cost structure basis for us to feel comfortable in
    what the returns are going to be.

    Speaker 2 (27:59):
    I just have one last question myself, is what was accomplished?
    We don't know what the future is or maybe you
    can give some insight into what is going on at
    CHIPS today in April twenty twenty five. But you said
    at the beginning about like what was accomplished during CHIPS
    And I'm aware the projects have been started and some
    have been completed, et cetera. But what did we get

    (28:19):
    from all of these efforts and should we be happy
    with it?

    Speaker 4 (28:23):
    So if the top line number that you know, we
    used while the Biden administration was still around was four
    hundred and fifty billion dollars in announced investment, and you
    started to see this with the data from the Census
    showed that we were making more investments in electronics facilities
    construction spend in twenty twenty three and twenty twenty four
    than we had in the last two decades combined.

    Speaker 2 (28:45):
    What about like actual like production? What I care about
    is actual things to go into computers, cars.

    Speaker 4 (28:51):
    And one hundred percent. So we got to recognize too,
    right that these are not going to happen overnight. These
    facilities aren't going to over The bill was passed in
    August of twenty twenty two, right, so within a couple
    of years you had you know, four hundred, like I said,
    four and fifty billion dollars if investments announced. And I
    think the biggest thing is that firms have to feel
    comfortable moving forward with those plans. So let's take TSMC

    (29:14):
    as an example. TSMC, by the end of the Biden
    administration has started pumping chips out for Apple and AMD
    out of its facility in Arizona. And as it continues
    to move forward with the second and third facilities, that
    ecosystem is going to mature to the point where the
    cost differentials versus Taiwan are going to be reduced. The
    scale is going to bring more suppliers on shore, so

    (29:35):
    they're going to have more of their coems and their
    gases and their you know, consumable materials sourced from the
    United States. And as that happens, you start to you know,
    build out a broader ecosystem because you know, we heard
    all the time from suppliers who were saying, Hey, we're
    building a facility in the United States to service all
    the fabs that are coming online. Because we can now

    (29:56):
    justify the investment based off of the number of downstream
    investments that have been made. And as they build out
    their facilities, then their suppliers are going to come here.
    So I think there's going to be an ecosystem maturation
    that's going to continue, hopefully through the rest of the decade.
    That's going to bring not just you know, front end
    fabrication facilities, but their suppliers facilities and then their suppliers

    (30:18):
    suppliers facilities, And now you talk about getting the sort
    of industrial ecosystems that really had atrophy in the United States.
    And when you start to go you know, N plus
    two in terms of the supplier level, you're no longer
    just serving the semiconductor industry. You're building fabricated machine parts
    that go into semiconductor manufacturing equipment and also going to
    say airplanes or automobiles, and you now you know, buttress

    (30:41):
    the entire industrial ecosystem, even though you're starting from just
    building semiconductor manufacturing plants. Right. So I think that is
    what the long term is going to look like. But
    we have to you know, in this where I have
    to come back to the point on we have to
    also be honest about where we were right. We weren't
    building these fabs. There's a reason it took so long,

    (31:01):
    and it's not going to happen overnight. And if we're
    not willing to maintain the investments and the programs that
    we have, I think a lot of firms are going
    to say, Hey, the uncertainty isn't worth it for me
    to continue to invest. Because I can't go to my
    shareholders and say this investment has a solid return. They're
    going to look at it and they're gonna discount it

    (31:22):
    with all that uncertainty and pressure me to not make
    these investments, or to reduce the investments I make and
    focus on places where the returns are much more solid.
    I think that's the situation that we absolutely should avoid.
    And you even hear that from the Trump administration, where,
    for example, Jade Vance at a speech at the American
    Dynamism Conference talked about making adjustments to tax credits for

    (31:42):
    firms in terms of bonus appreciation and the R and
    D tax credit, those are very much in line with
    making these investments less risky for firms the United States.
    So if the Trump administration continues down that vein, I
    think you'll see firms feel confident that they can expand
    these investments and build out these ecosystems to a a
    size and scale that's globally competitive. Right. And then you

    (32:04):
    tap into the broader tech stack that we have here,
    where now the smartest engineers from Nvidia, Apple, and am
    D don't have to fly to Taiwan. They can fly
    to Arizona to make sure that they're getting their designs
    taped out correctly, and they're working with universities all across
    the United States on future designs and technologies. And then
    you get an industrial ecosystem that really leverages our capabilities. Right.

    (32:27):
    One last point on this one. I think a lot
    of people made this criticism when the Chips Act was
    passed that the United States should have just continued to
    invest in R and D and that's what we should leverage.
    We should leverage our R and D capabilities. But here's
    another trivia question for the two of you. When was
    the quiz?

    Speaker 2 (32:46):
    Right now? So actually we're going to use these and
    just we're putting on a trivia event. So we're going
    to use your questions and turn them into questions.

    Speaker 4 (32:52):
    All right, keep going, I'll send you some When was
    the first EUV machine installed in the United States. It
    was two thousand and six at Sunny Albany, which is
    the nanotech complex in upstate New York. We didn't have
    high volume manufacturing with an EUV machine until December of

    (33:12):
    twenty twenty four out of TSMC eighteen years, right, So
    I think the critics who said we should double down
    on R and D actually failed to grapple with the
    fact that the R and D first approach was empirically failing. US.
    We invented EUV technology through our DD National Labs and

    (33:33):
    in partnership with ASML, we installed the first alpha tools
    in both Europe and the United States. And then, I
    mean the United States was a half decade behind East
    Asia in bringing EUV manufacturing to scale, right, so that
    formula wasn't working. And one of the shortages that TSMC
    talked about was that they didn't have enough workers who

    (33:54):
    knew how to install and bring up EUV machines. So
    you can see how this sort of scades the ecosystem atrophies.
    And then when firms come and try to do foreign
    direct investment, they come and say, well, you don't have
    the skills that we need, even though we can point
    to all the R and D investments, and I think
    the problem was we were sort of making these R
    and D investments in a vacuum and kind of hoping
    that they'd get sucked into an industrial ecosystem that, you know,

    (34:18):
    despite what a lot of economists say about America still
    having a very high value add for manufacturing, you look
    on the ground and there are tons of anecdotes that
    the manufacturing ecosystem has atrophied and we have to make
    investments in order to bring it back up to be
    globally competitive. And I think an anecdote exactly like the
    delay in bringing EUV manufacturing to scale in the US,

    (34:38):
    exemplifies why the old approach wasn't working. And we can
    debate like what the right ways are and how industrial
    policy should be structured, and what tax credits, etc. Need
    to be done, and trade reforms need to be done,
    but I don't think you can debate whether or not
    the old you know, let's call it pre twenty twenty
    approach was actually maintaining America's industrial competitiveness, because it wasn't.

    Speaker 3 (35:03):
    I have just one more question, and that is what's
    next for the Chips Program Office itself? Because I mean,
    under the Trump administration, fiscal spending doesn't really seem to
    be very popular, to put it mildly, and there's obviously
    a bon fight over who gets to control the pocketbook
    of America, whether it's Congress or the president. At the

    (35:24):
    same time, we have DOGE, which is implementing sweeping changes
    on the government itself, you know, entire agencies going away
    and stuff like that. And then finally, the other thing
    happening which we should definitely ask about, is tariffs. Right,
    and maybe tariffs end up being good for domestic manufacturing
    like semiconductors, but I can imagine that there are also

    (35:48):
    still either components or materials that chips manufacturing actually needs
    to import. So I guess my question is, how are
    you weighing all these different things that are going on
    right now?

    Speaker 4 (36:00):
    Now?

    Speaker 3 (36:00):
    What do they mean for the actual Chips Act and
    for manufacturing.

    Speaker 4 (36:04):
    So let me give you one one small anecdote to
    show you how firms are trying to understand what's happening. Right,
    I was talking to a supplier that wants to build
    a facility outside of Arizona. Right, they're exemplifying that ecosystem
    development that I talked about that's coming out of TSMC's investment.
    And I was on a call with them in late
    March and they basically said, we don't understand what's happening.

    (36:27):
    We don't know what our cost structure is going to
    look like, and you know, our project is undergoing change
    constantly because our cost structure is undergoing change. So, you know,
    for a lot of these firms, before they're willing to
    make bets that you know, in some of these smaller
    firms can be like, you know, life or death size
    bets for the firm, they really want to have an

    (36:49):
    understanding of what the policy framework is going to look like.
    And I think we have to sort of get through
    the period of you know, a new headline rocking markets
    every day or it to shake out to understand how
    it'll affect the long term decisions a lot for a
    lot of these firms. You know, the sense I got
    from talking to that firm and from other firms was
    that they're going to kind of wait it out and
    see They're going to try and buy as much time

    (37:10):
    as they can to see where things reach a steady
    state before reevaluating their investment plans. I think on the
    flip side, However, there is a bipartisan agreement on the
    need to bring industrial manufacturing back to the United States, right,
    So I think the question is going to be on
    the methods by which we do it. So you know,
    I go back and you say, is it through tax incentives,

    (37:32):
    is it through trade policy? Is it through industrial policy?
    I think all of those tools interact with each other. Obviously,
    different administrations have different approaches, so I don't know where
    we'll end up with that. The last thing I'll say
    is the methods that we developed in the Chips Program
    Office for trying to get firms comfortable with making investments
    in the United States and working to accelerate their investments

    (37:54):
    by working with stakeholders across you know, environment, workforce, and
    other policy objectives. I think that is actually going to continue.
    If you look at the Investment Accelerator Executive Order that
    was announced by President Trump a few weeks back, the
    sorts of activities that he's saying, the White Glove Service,
    I think that was pioneered in the Chips Program Office,
    where we worked with firms to get through the labor issues,

    (38:17):
    to get through the environmental issues, and permitting questions to
    make sure that these projects could move forward. It's why
    I've said repeatedly that there were no Chips Act construction
    projects that were held up by Neeper review. And I
    think they're going to take that recipe that was developed
    and try to scale it across multiple sectors. You know,
    certainly going to be different contextual challenges. But if they
    do that, I think it's going to be a vote

    (38:39):
    in favor of the work that we were doing at
    the policy level to make sure in manufacturing investments in
    the United States are viable for firms, and that's going
    to have to be complemented with a you know, approach
    to make them financially viable. I don't know, and I
    don't know that any of us can say what the
    Trump administration is going to finalize its policy mix on.
    And I think firms are going to wait to see

    (38:59):
    what that policy mix looks like from the Trump administration
    before you know, placing further large bets. So if there's
    a lot of policy uncertainty, you may see some companies
    come out and say, hey, we're gonna do price increases
    and we're gonna maybe pause equipment purchases until we really
    know what the fiscal impact of tariffs or other. You know,
    new trade negotiations are going to be for our project.

    Speaker 2 (39:21):
    Huss and con. Thank you so much for coming back
    on odd Lage, and I'm sharing with us lessons that
    you learned during your stint in the public sector. Thank
    you for your service. I learned a lot, so appreciate
    you coming back on.

    Speaker 4 (39:33):
    Joe Tracy. Always a pleasure. And the last thing I'll
    say is, I think the CHIP was an experiment in
    what industrial policy could look like. The scoreboard, the early
    returns look good, but I think the real measure of
    whether it was successful we'll know by the end of
    the Trump administration if these other projects come on.

    Speaker 2 (39:53):
    Fine, all right, well have you.

    Speaker 4 (40:08):
    Tracy? That was really good.

    Speaker 2 (40:10):
    It's cool that one of our past guests like started
    this whole other career between the last time we talked
    to them, Yeah, which is like in maybe early twenty
    twenty one, then went and got this job. And then
    we've been doing this a long time and someone had
    like a whole chunk of their career that they could
    fill us in on between times that we talked to them.

    Speaker 3 (40:26):
    Yeah, that's kind of crazy. So we feel old. Yes,
    On the plus side, we get an inside look at
    the Chips Program Office, which is pretty cool. I do
    take a Hassan's point about I guess like building up
    the muscle of manufacturing and his point that, well, we
    had been doing it a certain way, which is basically
    all through private capital for many many years, and it

    (40:49):
    hasn't resulted in the purpose that we now want, which
    is actually building factories to produce these things. And so
    you really need some sort of catalysts to get stuff going,
    to get people excited about it. Yeah, maybe change the
    calculation in terms of profit margins and the result is
    the Chips Act.

    Speaker 2 (41:08):
    I'm so depressed about the twenty tens and like, seriously,
    just like the way we let everything hollow out, you know,
    we talk about it with housing and sawmills and all
    of this stuff that we just like didn't do when
    we could have, and then the costs that imposes on
    us or we haven't like build a fab in forever
    and we forgot. I do think it's interesting like this
    question of you know, even with TSMC's second fab or

    (41:30):
    you know, you don't see any of those same headlines
    that you saw with the first one. That is encouraging.
    Maybe you have a sort of template to quickly navigate
    the state and local issues. Some of the questions around
    you know, the quote stakeholders, et cetera. Which every system
    has stakeholders. If this isn't not unique in that, I mean, obviously,
    you know, every system has to have a way. I

    (41:52):
    think what's important, you know some of the I remember
    we did a conversation about nuclear construction in China, and
    it's like they have their own you know, it's not
    like there aren't environmentalists in China, et cetera. What they
    have is like a system for allocating like who wins
    and what the priorities are, et cetera.

    Speaker 3 (42:07):
    And top down leadership.

    Speaker 2 (42:09):
    Yeah, there are many. Yeah, a much more sort of
    straightforward system in that respect. But uh no, I thought
    that was interesting, and you know, I'm hopeful that Husson
    wasn't totally dooming.

    Speaker 3 (42:19):
    You know what they say about factories, Joe, No, the
    best time to build a factory was twenty years ago. Yeah,
    the second best time to build a factory is today.

    Speaker 2 (42:28):
    All right, Well, you know, I wonder, I wonder we're
    recording this April eighth. I wonder if there's a single
    new factory green broken ground today right now. I kind
    of doubt it.

    Speaker 3 (42:36):
    Yeah, all right, shall we leave it there?

    Speaker 2 (42:38):
    Let's leave it there.

    Speaker 3 (42:39):
    This has been another episode of the odd Lots podcast.
    I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me at Tracy Alloway.

    Speaker 2 (42:45):
    And I'm Joe Wisenthal. You can follow me at the
    Stalwart Fellow Husson Khan. He's at Husson Khan. Follow our
    producers Carman, Rodriguez at Carmen Erman, Dash Ol Bennett at
    dashbod and kel Brooks at cal Brooks. More Odd Laws content,
    go to Bloomberg dot com odd Lots. We have all
    of our episodes in the daily newsletter, and you can
    chat about all of these topics, including semiconductors twenty four

    (43:07):
    to seven in our discord discord dot gg slash Oddlins.

    Speaker 3 (43:11):
    And if you enjoy when we talk about industrial policy
    and remind everyone that the Chips Act actually exists, then
    please leave us a positive review on your favorite podcast platform.
    And remember, if you are a Bloomberg subscriber, you can
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