Fighting with Numbers: UFC Betting Through An Analytical Lens
Fighting With Numbers is the UFC betting podcast where analytics meet fight talk. Hosted by Rob Moreno of VSiN's First Strike, each episode breaks down upcoming cards through model grades, matchup data, and betting angles that actually matter. No hype, no clickbait — just data-driven analysis that helps you read the lines, not the headlines. Whether you’re chasing sharp value, tracking fighter trends, or just love hearing the story behind the stats, this show gives you the edge every fight week. New episodes drop every week — where numbers tell the story inside the Octagon.
Episodes
The UFC closes out the PPV era with a monster card at UFC 323, live from T-Mobile Arena — and we’re breaking down all the numbers that matter. Two championship fights headline the final mega-event of 2025: Alexandre Pantoja vs Joshua Van for the flyweight belt, and Merab Dvalishvili vs Petr Yan 2 for the bantamweight championship. With only two events left in the year and a long six-week offseason ahead, this is a cru...
UFC Qatar is here — and with only three events left in the year, it’s all about tightening the screws and finding the smartest possible spots. This week’s card is a morning start with a smaller batch of model predictions, but there are some sharp angles to attack, including live underdogs and stylistic matchups the numbers actually like.
In today’s episode, we break down three key fights ...
UFC 322 is one of the deepest cards of the entire year, with two massive title fights — Jack Della Maddalena vs Islam Makhachev for the welterweight belt, and Valentina Shevchenko vs Weili Zhang for the women’s flyweight championship.
This week, the model is coming off a 5–4 event and now sits at 159-92-12 on the year. With only five UFC events left on the calendar, we’re digging into the...
The UFC returns to the Apex for UFC Vegas 110 — and Rob’s breaking down the numbers!
After a few rough weeks for the model (now at 63.56%), it’s time to bounce back with a stat-driven look at this post-PPV card headlined by Steve Garcia vs David Onama.
Tune in for the usual mix of betting talk, model insights, and fight-week storylines, all in one data-powered episode.
The UFC heads to Abu Dhabi for a massive double-title event at UFC 321: Tom Aspinall vs Ciryl Gane, and Fighting With Numbers is breaking it all down!
Rob Moreno (@TheRobbeo) dives deep into the data and betting angles across five key matchups — from Umar Nurmagomedov’s bounce-back fight to the vacant strawweight title clash between Mackenzie Dern and Virna Jandiroba. Plus, full analysis ...
The Fighting With Numbers podcast is back for UFC Vancouver! And this week, the model digs into a stat-stacked card headlined by Reinier de Ridder vs Brendan Allen.
Rob Moreno (@TheRobbeo) breaks down the key metrics, betting trends, and model grades for some featured matchups as we look for sharp angles and possible underdogs hiding in the data.
💥 Full brea...
We’re back in Brazil for UFC Rio, headlined by former lightweight champ Charles Oliveira taking on Mateusz Gamrot in a high-stakes main event. Rob Moreno breaks down all the key fights using the Fighting With Numbers model — including xR% stats, striking metrics, and potential value spots across the card.
The model sits at 65.58%, and while it’s a cautious week after UFC 320, there’s stil...
The light heavyweight title is back on the line as Magomed Ankalaev and Alex Pereira run it back at UFC 320. Bobby Knuckles breaks down the rematch, plus deep dives into Merab Dvalishvili vs Cory Sandhagen, Jiri Prochazka vs Khalil Rountree Jr, and more. Can the champ hold strong, or is another upset brewing? Tune in for stats, storylines, and betting angles from the model.
If you enjoy t...
The UFC returns to Australia with UFC Perth, headlined by Carlos Ulberg vs Dominick Reyes. After a week off, we’re back in the lab breaking down some key fights: Including Jamie Mullarkey vs Rolando Bedoya, Jake Matthews vs Neil Magny, and the big main event.
The model is steady at 133-70-10 (65%), and this week it’s pointing toward some surprising angles. We’ll dig into the stats, talk x...
Noche UFC is here, headlined by Diego Lopes vs Jean Silva. I break down the key matchups, digs into the stats, and set the stage for a stacked night of fights. From Tatiana Suarez’s return, a clash of styles, every angle gets covered. Tune in for sharp insights, model talk, and a few storylines you won’t want to miss.
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After a one-week break, the UFC returns with a morning card from Paris, headlined by Nassourdine Imavov vs Caio Borralho in a matchup that could get violent fast. This week on Fighting With Numbers, we’re breaking down a slate full of finish potential, a couple of sharp underdog plays, and the fights worth targeting — and skipping — from a betting perspective. Let’s get back to work and see what the model likes in the...
It’s UFC Shanghai, live from the other side of the world and kicking off at 3AM Eastern. The headliner? Johnny Walker vs Mingyang Zhang in a fight that could launch Zhang into the spotlight. With the model rolling at 66% after last week’s 6-2 performance, we break down the stats, storylines, and betting angles across the card — value spots and parlay anchors. This is a card to approach cautiously, and we’ll walk you t...
The middleweight belt is on the line at UFC 319 as Dricus Du Plessis faces the undefeated Khamzat Chimaev. We break down the styles, the stats, and where the edge really lies in this clash of chaos vs control. Model insights, betting angles, and why this fight could redefine the division.
Time Stamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:30 - Bryan Battle vs Nursulton Ruziboev
It’s not the prettiest card for betting — but that’s where value hides. In this episode, we break down UFC Vegas 109 from top to bottom, including the pressure-heavy main event between Anthony Hernandez and Roman Dolidze. With the model at 65% and fresh off a 6-1 week, we’re betting smart, spotting underdogs, and making the best out of a tricky slate. Stats, strategy, and sneaky edges.
T...
It’s a lighter slate for UFC Vegas 108, with Tatsuro Taira now facing Hyun Sung Park in a last-minute main event switch. While it might not be the most stacked card on paper, the model still found spots worth a closer look. This week on Fighting with Numbers, I’ll break down where the data finds value, what the main event shift means, and which fights are actually worth betting. Let’s nerd out.
We’re running the numbers for UFC Abu Dhabi, headlined by Robert Whittaker vs Reinier de Ridder. Every fight is broken down by the stats, with model scores, xR percentages, and key striking and grappling data to find the best betting angles.
The model is still hitting at 65% overall accuracy, let's keep it rolling this week.
SHOW NOTES:
Time St...
This week on Fighting with Numbers, it’s UFC 318 — and the stakes couldn’t be higher. Max Holloway and Dustin Poirier meet for the third time, this one for the BMF Title in what’s also Poirier’s retirement fight. The model’s dialed in on this matchup, plus some sneaky value elsewhere on the card. Let’s break down the trilogy, the title, and where the numbers are pointing for UFC 318.
Time...
After a week off, we’re back in action for UFC Nashville, headlined by a heavyweight showdown between Derrick Lewis and rising prospect Tallison Teixeira. This week on Fighting with Numbers, the model gets back to work breaking down where the data points us — including a few key betting spots beyond the main event. It’s good to be back. Let’s get into the numbers and find the angles worth playing.
It’s a big one. This week on Fighting with Numbers, we’re diving into the double-title card at UFC 317. Flyweight champ Alexandre Pantoja defends against Kai Kara-France, and the vacant lightweight strap is on the line between Ilia Topuria and Charles Oliveira. The model’s fired up for this one — with value showing in both title fights and a few sleeper matchups deeper on the card. Stats, edges, and smart spots only —...
This week on Fighting with Numbers, the UFC heads to Baku, Azerbaijan for a more compact data card headlined by Jamahal Hill vs Khalil Rountree Jr. While the slate is smaller for us, the model still found spots worth watching — including a few potential value plays buried deeper on the lineup. We’re keeping it tight and focused this week: just the fights that matter, the stats that stand out, and the bets that make se...
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