Fighting with Numbers: UFC Betting Through An Analytical Lens

It’s UFC Shanghai, live from the other side of the world and kicking off at 3AM Eastern. The headliner? Johnny Walker vs Mingyang Zhang in a fight that could launch Zhang into the spotlight. With the model rolling at 66% after last week’s 6-2 performance, we break down the stats, storylines, and betting angles across the card — value spots and parlay anchors. This is a card to approach cautiously, and we’ll walk you t...

The middleweight belt is on the line at UFC 319 as Dricus Du Plessis faces the undefeated Khamzat Chimaev. We break down the styles, the stats, and where the edge really lies in this clash of chaos vs control. Model insights, betting angles, and why this fight could redefine the division.

Time Stamps:

00:00 - Intro

01:30 - Bryan Battle vs Nursulton Ruziboev

It’s not the prettiest card for betting — but that’s where value hides. In this episode, we break down UFC Vegas 109 from top to bottom, including the pressure-heavy main event between Anthony Hernandez and Roman Dolidze. With the model at 65% and fresh off a 6-1 week, we’re betting smart, spotting underdogs, and making the best out of a tricky slate. Stats, strategy, and sneaky edges. 

T...

It’s a lighter slate for UFC Vegas 108, with Tatsuro Taira now facing Hyun Sung Park in a last-minute main event switch. While it might not be the most stacked card on paper, the model still found spots worth a closer look. This week on Fighting with Numbers, I’ll break down where the data finds value, what the main event shift means, and which fights are actually worth betting. Let’s nerd out.

We’re running the numbers for UFC Abu Dhabi, headlined by Robert Whittaker vs Reinier de Ridder. Every fight is broken down by the stats, with model scores, xR percentages, and key striking and grappling data to find the best betting angles.

The model is still hitting at 65% overall accuracy, let's keep it rolling this week. 

SHOW NOTES:

Time St...

This week on Fighting with Numbers, it’s UFC 318 — and the stakes couldn’t be higher. Max Holloway and Dustin Poirier meet for the third time, this one for the BMF Title in what’s also Poirier’s retirement fight. The model’s dialed in on this matchup, plus some sneaky value elsewhere on the card. Let’s break down the trilogy, the title, and where the numbers are pointing for UFC 318.

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After a week off, we’re back in action for UFC Nashville, headlined by a heavyweight showdown between Derrick Lewis and rising prospect Tallison Teixeira. This week on Fighting with Numbers, the model gets back to work breaking down where the data points us — including a few key betting spots beyond the main event. It’s good to be back. Let’s get into the numbers and find the angles worth playing.

It’s a big one. This week on Fighting with Numbers, we’re diving into the double-title card at UFC 317. Flyweight champ Alexandre Pantoja defends against Kai Kara-France, and the vacant lightweight strap is on the line between Ilia Topuria and Charles Oliveira. The model’s fired up for this one — with value showing in both title fights and a few sleeper matchups deeper on the card. Stats, edges, and smart spots only —...

This week on Fighting with Numbers, the UFC heads to Baku, Azerbaijan for a more compact data card headlined by Jamahal Hill vs Khalil Rountree Jr. While the slate is smaller for us, the model still found spots worth watching — including a few potential value plays buried deeper on the lineup. We’re keeping it tight and focused this week: just the fights that matter, the stats that stand out, and the bets that make se...

This week on Fighting with Numbers, I’m breaking down UFC Atlanta, headlined by Kamaru Usman vs Joaquin Buckley, with a strong co-main event featuring Rose Namajunas vs Miranda Maverick. The model found a few surprise underdogs this week—and I’ll walk you through where the value lies and which favorites might be worth fading. As always: sharp analysis, data-backed predictions, and no fluff. Let’s bet smarter for UFC A...

This week on Fighting with Numbers, we’re zeroing in on the key matchups from UFC 316, headlined by the rematch between Merab Dvalishvili and Sean O’Malley. I’ll break down what the stats say, where the value might be hiding, and why a few underdogs are worth a second look. No full-card filler—just analysis, model-backed predictions, and the fights with actual numbers. 

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This week on Fighting with Numbers, I break down the UFC Vegas 107 card with a data-driven look at the fights — including the main event: Erin Blanchfield vs. Maycee Barber. Get model predictions, finish probabilities, and betting insights to help you find value across the card. If you’re looking to bet smart, not emotional, this episode has you covered.

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In this first official episode of Fighting with Numbers, I break down 6 fights on the UFC Vegas 106 card — including the main event: Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales. Using a stat-based model, I deliver predictions, finish probabilities, and betting value for these matchups.

Whether you’re chasing sharp angles or just want to see who the numbers favor, this episode gives you everything you need to bet s...

Welcome to the introductory episode of Fighting with Numbers — a podcast for UFC fans and bettors who want more than just hype. In this intro, I’m breaking down what this show is all about: who I am, how my predictive model works, and what you can expect week to week. If you’re looking to make smarter, more analytical bets on UFC fights, you’re in the right place. Let’s get started.

Follo...

Join us for an exciting episode as we dive deep into the world of March Madness bracketology, college basketball betting, and the love of beer with our special guest, Greg “Hoops” Peterson.

Greg takes us on a fascinating journey through his personal history, sharing insights into his passion for bracketology and how he made his mark in the industry. From discussing the intricacies of sports betting in college basketball to unravel...

Join host Rob Moreno in the latest episode of "A Better Mind Podcast" as he explores the dynamic worlds of UFC and tennis betting with guest Britton Hess. Discover the surprising parallels between these sports, Britton’s journey from television to sports gambling, and the pivotal role of daily fantasy sports in shaping his approach.

Gain valuable insights into effective sports betting strategies, including the importance of strengt...

Join me on the latest episode of 'A Bettor Mind,' where I sit down with Brian Ortega, a former Las Vegas concierge and the host of 'Concierge Confidential.' We delve into the intriguing world of Oscar betting, exploring Ortega's unique insights and strategies. Gain exclusive tips from a seasoned expert in the hospitality industry turned Oscars prognosticator.

Follow Brian Ortega on Twitter/X @BrianOrtegaLV, TikTok @KeysToVegas, a...

In this episode of A Bettor Mind, we get to know Luke DiVasta! A producer over at DKN/VSiN. 

Learn what drew him into the world of sports betting along with what continues to push him to get better and win. Plus how he approaches his betting days and finds an edge in his bets. 

Join us as we get to know the people behind the bets. 

Make sure to rate, like, and subscribe to the pod so you never miss an episode. 

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