Sibylline: What Just Happened?
What Just Happened is a short-format, informal podcast brought to you by the intelligence analysts at Sibylline LTD, a strategic risk firm based in London. Hosted by Ignacio Ayala, this podcast features brief conversations between the host and his fellow analysts, updating you on major geopolitical events as soon as they happen.
Episodes
In this episode, Ignacio is joined by Karan Vassil, Intelligence Analyst for Europe and Eurasia, to discuss the ongoing political crisis in France. They examine the recent announcement by Prime Minister Bayrou, who has called for a vote of confidence on 8 September to secure support for his 2026 budget. The discussion explores the implications of this move and its potential impact on France’s governance. Karan provides insights int...
In this episode, Ignacio is joined by Megan Sutcliffe, Principal Analyst for the Middle East and Africa, to discuss Israel's new push to occupy the entirety of Gaza. They delve into the recent announcements by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the implications of these plans, and the potential humanitarian impact on Gaza's densely populated areas. Megan provides insights into the geopolitical dynamics and the international...
In this episode, Ignacio delves into the recent shifts in Japanese politics following the upper house election. Our Principal Analyst for the Asia Pacific region, Jonah Kaplan, joins Ignacio to explain the fragmentation of political power as the ruling Liberal Democratic Party loses its majority, and smaller parties rise with distinct policy proposals. Together they explore the implications of this power shift, the challenges faced...
In this episode, Ignacio is joined by Eurasia Intelligence Analyst Layla Guest to discuss the recent developments between Ukraine, the US and Russia. They delve into President Donald Trump's notable policy shift aimed at pressuring Russia to end the war in Ukraine, the new military assistance plans for Ukraine, the potential impact of severe tariffs on Russia and the broader implications for international relations. Layla also prov...
In this episode, Alexander Marciniak from the Latin America desk joins Ignacio to explore the complex dynamics of drone warfare in Haiti. They discuss the increasing use of drones by Haitian security forces, the impact on civilian safety and the broader implications for the region. The conversation also covers the formation of the 'Viv Ansanm' gang coalition and the adoption of drone warfare across Latin America, including Mexico a...
In this episode, Ignacio is joined by Megan Sutcliffe from the Middle East and Africa desk to understand the recent strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities and discuss the damage inflicted, the current state of Iran's nuclear capabilities and the implications for Iran's intentions regarding nuclear weapon development. Megan provides insights into the complexities of nuclear weapon development, the stages involved and the geopolitical ...
In this episode, Alexander Marciniak from the Latin America desk joins Ignacio to unpack the current political situation in Colombia, focusing on President Gustavo Petro's labor reform, the implications of a popular consultation and the potential for a constitutional assembly. It also addresses the ongoing violence in the country and the upcoming elections, highlighting key candidates and voter concerns.
In this episode, Ignacio Ayala is joined by Lead Americas Analyst Lewis Galvin and Principal Middle East and Africa Analyst Megan Sutcliffe to unpack the recent escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict, focusing on Israel's Operation Rising Lion, which involved high-intensity airstrikes targeting Iranian military and nuclear infrastructure. Megan and Lewis discuss the implications of these strikes, the potential for U.S. involvement ...
In this episode, Ignacio Ayala is joined by Associate Americas Intelligence Analyst Azul Hidalgo Solá to discuss the recent protests in Los Angeles triggered by the Trump administration's immigration enforcement actions. They walk through the deployment of the National Guard, the legal implications surrounding the protests, the escalating tensions between state and federal authorities, the potential for further protests in other ci...
In this episode, Ignacio Ayala is joined by Karan Vassil to review the recent Ukrainian drone operation targeting Russian air bases, its implications for military capabilities and the potential impact on ongoing negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. The discussion highlights the unprecedented use of first-person view (FPV) drones, the operational planning behind the attack and the subsequent effects on Russian strategic assets a...
Today, Ignacio Ayala is joined by Claire Brady for a different sort of episode. Together they discuss multiple significant political developments in the U.S., including the implications of a sweeping mega bill passed by the House, the Trump administration's conflict with Harvard University and shifts in U.S. foreign policy. The conversation highlights the potential socioeconomic impacts of the mega bill, the administration's stance...
In this episode, Ignacio Ayala is joined by Layla Guest to discuss the ongoing peace negotiations surrounding the Russia-Ukraine war. They focus on recent developments, the contrasting positions of Russia and Ukraine, and the differing approaches of the EU and the US. They also explore the potential future of these negotiations and the role of China in the conflict.
If you enjoyed this episode, let us know by liking, subscribing ...
In this episode, Ignacio Ayala is joined by Noam Ostfeld (Principal Analyst - Middle East & North Africa & Turkey) to discuss the recent Israeli military strategy in Gaza, focusing on the intensification of operations and the implications for both domestic politics and humanitarian conditions. They explore the so-called 'Rafah' model, which involves holding territories for longer periods, and the potential impact on ceasefi...
In this episode, Ignacio Ayala is joined by Claire Brady (Principal North America Analyst) to discuss the recent Canadian federal elections. Claire outlines the Liberal Party's victory under Mark Carney, the context of Trudeau's resignation, the influence of Donald Trump on Canadian politics, Carney's approach to US relations and the implications for Quebec and other political parties like the NDP.
In this episode, Ignacio Ayala is joined by Shiza Abbasi, Sibylline's Principal Analyst for South Asia. Together, they explore J.D. Vance's visit to India, focusing on the implications for U.S.-India trade relations amidst ongoing tariff tensions. Shiza discusses the historical context of the visit, the domestic political dynamics in India, and the challenges posed by agricultural tariffs.
In this episode, Ignacio Ayala is joined by Alex Marciniak from the Latin America desk here at Sibylline to discuss the recent presidential elections in Ecuador. Alex explains the newly elected President Daniel Noboa, his policies and the ongoing security crisis in the country. Alex also highlights Noboa's approach to governance, particularly his security measures against organised crime, the economic challenges facing Ecuador and ...
Please note that this episode was recorded on April 9th, and further developments may occur. Stay tuned for future episodes!
In this episode, Ignacio Ayala and his guest, Jonah Kaplan (Principal Analyst for Asia Pacific at Sibylline) delve into the escalating US-China trade war, examining the recent tariff increases and China's retaliatory measures. Jonah lays out the implications of these actions on both economies and the broad...
In this episode, Ignacio Ayala and Claire Brady discuss President Trump's recent tariff announcements. They explore the motivations behind these tariffs, their calculation, global reactions, and potential domestic economic implications. The discussion highlights the significant impact these tariffs may have on international trade relations and the U.S. economy.
If you enjoyed this episode, let us know by liking, subscribing or le...
In this episode, Ignacio Ayala speaks with Middle East and Africa Analyst Megan Sutcliffe about the recent IDF airstrike on Beirut, its implications for the ceasefire with Hezbollah and the potential perpetrators behind recent rocket attacks. They explore the recent historical context of the ceasefire, the dynamics of the current situation and the likely future developments in the region.
In this episode, Ignacio Ayala is joined by Associate North America Analyst Azul Hidalgo Solá to discuss the recent political developments in Canada. Azul focuses on Mark Carney's decision to call for a snap election and the implications for the Liberal Party and its competition. The discussion highlights the shifting political landscape, the impact of tariffs, and the leading candidates' contrasting policies.
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