Trade with Conviction
In-depth analysis of current trends and future expectations for different segments of the oil market, with a focus on understanding both the supply and demand dynamics at play.
Episodes
Neil Crosby, June Goh and Abhishek Kumar unpack Brent's shock flip into contango as Hormuz reopens and AG crude floods back. Dubai swaps at minus one, the "Asian crude buffet," a potential Russian diesel ban, and why jet looks weaker than diesel into summer.
Chapters:
(01:23) Brent flips to contango: the crude sell-off
Brent and Dubai flip into contango as Hormuz reopens...
Felipe Elink Schuurman, Neil Crosby and James Noel-Beswick dig into the signed Iran-US MOU and a market pricing rapid de-escalation. Crude under $80, Dubai swaps in contango, an oversold barrel. They weigh whether Hormuz reopens cleanly or shipping delays keep oil short for longer.
Chapters:
Neil Crosby hosts with Michael Ryan and June Goh. Growing Hormuz transits, a record 262 VLCC orders, Atlantic tonnage oversupply, softening Dubai premiums, and why Singapore VLSFO blend margins are building a bullish case into Q3.
Chapters:
(00:48) Atla...
Felipe Elink Schuurman hosts Neil Crosby and first-time guest Jay Maroo. The episode covers the stalled US-Iran peace process, Hormuz transit at 10% of pre-crisis levels, Indian and Chinese product exports collapsing, Cushing approaching its 20 million barrel floor, and why crude, distillates, and gasoline all look too cheap. Chapters:
(01:15) Sleepwalking into the inventory crisis
Lebanon complic...
Neil Crosby and June Goh cut through the noise on US-Iran deal speculation, unpacking why flat price is off, what 7 million bpd of Chinese crude imports means for diesel east-west dynamics, and why Sing FOGO holds up when bunker demand proves more inelastic than diesel.
00:00 – Hormuz risk and deal pricing Why the market is pricing an imminent de...
Felipe Elink Schuurman, June Goh, and new analyst Abhishek Kumar cover a record 19.5mb stock draw that barely moved prices, the Russia OFAC waiver with no new barrels, India's supply strategy, Asia's group buying trend, and trade views across distillates, jet, fuel oil, and gasoline.
Felipe Elink Schuurman, Neil Crosby, and James Noel-Beswick cover the stalling Iran deal, Karg Island's loading disruption, US diesel and gasoline stocks nearing commercial minimums, growing export ban risk, collapsing Brent differentials, and why the market keeps surprising on timing.
Neil Crosby hosts with June Goh and Jorge Molinero. Iran deal uncertainty keeps markets trading headlines as US diesel stocks head for critical lows within weeks. June covers Saudi OSPs, record Japanese US crude purchases, and TMX. Jorge runs through the ARA-PAD1 gasoline arb and GASNAP strength.
Felipe Elink-Schuurman, Neil Crosby, and Jorge Molinero on the crisis shifting West. Neil unpacks a 25-million-barrel US stock draw and trade ideas across Hogo, regrade, and diesel cracks. Jorge covers gasoline East-West flows and the US TAR opening.
Chapters:
Felipe Elink-Schuurman and June Goh cover the FT Commodities conference, where major trading house CEOs signalled no short-term resolution to Hormuz. June runs through crude premium collapse, EU sanctions, and a bullish fuel oil case into Q3.
Chapters:
...
Host Neil Crosby talks with June Goh and Michael Ryan about a week of conflicting signals on Iranian vessels, accelerating refinery run cuts across Asia, and the secondary unit squeeze nobody's talking about. The team unpacks why a peace deal wouldn't fix markets overnight, how freight rates could spike if tankers can't reposition in time, and where th...
The ceasefire is two days old. Nothing has changed on the water.
Sea mines in the channel. IRGC still threatening vessels. No owners willing to move. Hormuz flows stuck below 50% for at least another month.
Paper sold off hard on the headlines. Already rebounding. Physical premiums at records across crude, naphtha, and diesel. Every risk-off dip is looking like a buying opportunity.
Chapters:
(00:43) Ceasefire r...
In this episode of Trade with Conviction, Felipe, Phil, and James break down the supply crisis rattling every product market, and where traders can find edge right now.
Chapters(00:17) Geopolitics: The Hormuz Standoff
Felipe and Phil debate whether anything has really cha...
Paper market has been calm… but physical still flashes risk. In the latest episode of Trade with Conviction, we break down a market that doesn’t add up. Middle East escalation. Russian supply under threat. West-East flows rising.
Chapters:
(00:37) Headlines: Middle East escalation & price volatility The team breaks down rising tensions between Iran, Israel, and the US, Hormuz risks, and why pos...
In this emergency episode of the Trade with Conviction podcast, host Felipe is joined by analysts June and Neil to break down one of the most volatile weeks in recent oil market history. Trump's 48-hour ultimatum to Iran, Monday's shock de-escalation, suspicious pre-announcement trading in oil, bonds and equities, drone attacks across Saudi Arabia and ...
The war in the Middle East escalated again. Israel struck South Pars. Iran responded with attacks on Ras Laffan and Saudi refineries. And as this episode was recorded, Reuters confirmed Yambu had stopped loading oil.
Flat price pushed above $115. WTI collapsed to a $20 dis...
This episode focused on how the escalating conflict is moving beyond headline risk and into a full physical market disruption, with tanker attacks, port damage, refinery outages and force majeure declarations reshaping crude and product flows across the Middle East and Asia. The team unpacked why government intervention, including SPR releases and possible demand controls, is only a partial fix, and why the deepest st...
This emergency episode unpacks the market fallout from the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz and why the real issue is no longer just crude, but the knock on impact across products, refinery runs and freight. The team looks at why SPR releases are unlikely to solve a disruption of this scale, how Asia is absorbing the biggest immediate hit, why gasoline, jet and distillates are becoming the real pressure point...
In this emergency episode, the team unpacks the fast moving market impact of the Iran conflict, focusing on how disruptions are showing up first through shipping and insurance, then cascading into crude and refined products.
Chapters
(00:50) Emergency episode: What happened, what matters, what to watch A rapid briefing on the Iran conflict, early market signals, and the key variables for tr...
In this special episode, the team reacts to the sudden escalation in the Middle East following attacks involving Iran, Israel and the US, focusing on the immediate market impact rather than long term forecasts. With shipping through the Strait of Hormuz effectively halted, the discussion centres on whether the market is facing a logistical bottleneck or a genuine supply shock, and how that distinction is driving sharp...
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