John MacDonald: Orr's job was to re-build the rock star economy - not be the rock star

I'm neither happy or unhappy that Adrian Orr is no longer Reserve Bank Governor, but I do have a piece of advice for whoever ends up taking over from him.  

Just be the complete opposite.   

Because I reckon he fell into a trap that ended up with him getting too big for his boots. Which, maybe, is very hard to avoid when you’re in a job like his, but the next person needs to make sure they stay in their lane and keeps themselves in check.  

When you’re the Reserve Bank Governor, your job is to work on creating a rock star economy - you’re not the rock star yourself.  

No one can argue that his tenure coincided with a time when what you would consider to be the most grey and dull jobs in the world, took on a whole new meaning.  

Ashley Bloomfield, for example. Because of COVID, everyone knew who he was.   

And Adrian Orr. Because of COVID, he was elevated to a level no other reserve bank governor got to in terms of profile and recognition.  

If you ask me to name another Reserve Bank Governor, the only name that comes to my head straight away is Don Brash. That’s because of his political career that he got into after he left the bank.  

And if I think a little bit more, there’s Alan Bollard. But that's it.  

But everyone pretty much knows who Adrian Orr is and I think it went to his head. I think he loved the limelight, and, in the process, he got a bit too cocky. I think he lost sight of what his job was actually all about.  

Nevertheless, I don’t think he personally is to blame for everything when it comes to us feeling more hard up than ever.  

And, if he hadn’t fallen into the trap of letting the job go to his head, he might not be copping as much criticism as he has and is. 

I’m with economist Tony Alexander who is saying today that business people and homeowners who blame Orr for their cashflow problems are both right and wrong.  

He’s saying that they're right in that he oversaw the continuation of excessively loose spending during 2021 and into 2022, which over-stimulated the economy and pushed inflation up to 7.3%.  

He also was boss of the Reserve Bank when the official cash rate reached 5.5%. And then got it down to 2.2% by what Tony Alexander describes as Orr “crunching the economy”.  

But he also says, let’s not forget Labour’s Grant Robertson’s role in all of this.  

He was the guy who kept fiscal policy loose.  

My understanding is that staff at the Reserve Bank had no idea this was coming until after it was announced to the media. Which is a shocker. And, apparently, staff at the bank have no idea what’s behind it.  

I’m picking that he’s thrown his toys out of the cot because the Government wants to cut the budgets at the Reserve Bank. And a lot of that will have to do with what the Government probably sees as the former Governor’s obsession with things outside what it considers core business for the central bank.  

But, from the very limited things that have been said since the announcement yesterday afternoon, it’s obvious that he’s quit.  

Because when the chair of the bank Neil Quigley said it was “a personal decision” by Adrian Orr, that says he’s quit. It doesn't say he’s leaving for personal reasons, it says he’s walking away.  

He’s going to be on the payroll until the end of the month, but he’s not Governor of the bank anymore. An acting Governor took over at midday yesterday.  

The other thing too about all this secrecy, is that I don't think it’s acceptable when you’ve got a senior public servant who earns more than $800,000 a year quitting like this.  

On the basis of what we kind-of know, I think we deserve more of an explanation.  

If the guy’s thrown a hissy fit - tell us. Because, for someone who see

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:06):
You're listening to the Canterbury Morning's Podcast with John McDonald
from NEWSTALKSB.

Speaker 2 (00:13):
Now, I've got to tell you I am neither happy
or unhappy that Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Or is going
either happy or unhappy because I don't think he can
cop the blame for everything that's gone wrong with the
economy in recent years. I'll explain more on that shortly,

(00:33):
but I do have a piece of advice for whoever
ends up taking over from him. Just be the complete
opposite from the last guy, because I reckon Adrian Or
fell into a trap that ended up with him getting
too big for his boots, which maybe maybe it's very
hard to avoid when you're in a job like his,

(00:54):
But the next person needs to make sure they stay
in their lane and keep themselves in check. You know,
when you're the Reserve Bank governor, your job is to
try and create a rock star economy. You're not the
rock star yourself, and no one can argue that his
tenure is boss of the Reserve Bank. Well coincidab with

(01:17):
the time, didn't.

Speaker 3 (01:17):
It, which you would think is the or When you
would think the most dull and gray jobs in the world,
they actually talk on a whole new meaning.

Speaker 2 (01:28):
They were elevated. Ashley Bloomfield, for example, because of COVID,
everyone knew who he was, and Adrian Or his job
was elevated to a level no other Reserve Bank governor
has got to in terms of profile and recognition because
of COVID. If you ask me to name another Reserve

(01:50):
Bank governor, the only name that comes to my head
straightaway is Don Brash. But that I think that's because
of his political career that he got into after he
left the bank. And if I think a little bit more,
there's a guy with glasses a bit of a point.
He knows when I want to. Tried to remember him
earlier this morning. I remembered his name was Allen, but
that was googled at Alan Bollard was a guy was

(02:12):
thinking of. But they're the only two. But everyone pretty
much knows who Adrian Or is and I think it
went into his head. I think he loved the limelight,
and in the process of that he got a bit
too cocky. He lost sight of what his job is
actually all about, which is why I'm giving the advice

(02:32):
to his predecessor just be the opposite of him. Nevertheless,
I'm not going to pile in on his performance as
much as some people are, because I don't think he
personally is to blame for everything when it comes to
us feeling more hard up than ever. And if he
hadn't fallen into the trap of letting the job go
to his head, he might not be copying as much
criticism as he has and is. And I'm with Tony

(02:56):
Alexander a columnist, Tony Alexander who saying today business people
and homeowners who blame Adrian or for their cash flow problems,
where they both right and they're wrong. But me being
not happy or happy that he's going. You see, Tony Alexander,
he's saying that people are right and that he oversaw
this is agent, or that he oversaw the continuation of

(03:16):
excessively loose spending during twenty twenty one into twenty twenty two,
which of course I overstimulated the economy and pushed inflation
up to seven point three percent, what a figure. He
also was bossed of the Reserve Bank when the official
cash rate reached five point five percent and then got
it down to two point two percent by what Tony
Alexander describes as Ore's Adrian Or crunching the economy. But

(03:43):
he also says, let's not forget Labour's Grant Robinson's role
in all of this. He was a guy who kept
fiscal policy so loose, which stimulated things so much that
government debt increased eighty four percent in just six years.
And all that growth it meant unemployment plummeted, spending skyrocket
and what happened inflation went nuts. Now my understanding is

(04:05):
that staff at the Reserve Bank they had no idea
this was coming until after it was announced to the media,
which is a shocker. And apparently staff at the bank
have no idea still have no idea what's behind it.
I'm picking you might be as well. I'm picking that
he's thrown his toys out of the cot because the
government wants to cut the budgets at the Reserve Bank,
and a lot of that would probably have to do

(04:25):
with the government seeing some of the stuff he's been
doing is outside the core business for the Central Bank.
An example is probably Adrian Or's pushed for the bank
to embrace to al Maori or the Maori view of
the world. Although I was reading that he does have
Maori ancestries that might be part of it. But from

(04:47):
the very limited things that have been said by the
Bank since the announcement yesterday afternoon, it's obvious to me
he's quit. He's walking away, because when the Chair of
the Bank, Neil quickly said that it was quote a
personal decision by Adrian Orr. It says he's quoite, doesn't
It says he's leaving. It doesn't say he's leaving for
personal reasons. It says he's walking away.

Speaker 3 (05:08):
Now.

Speaker 2 (05:08):
It's going to be on the payroll until the end
of the month, but he's not the governor anymore, and
acting governor took over at midday yesterday, gone by lunchtime.
And the other thing too about all this is the secrecy.
I don't think it's acceptable that when you've got a
senior public servant who earns more than eight hundred thousand
dollars a year. I don't think the secrecy is acceptable

(05:32):
when someone quits like this. As I say, if it
was for personal reasons, I'd be more forgiving. But on
the basis of what we kind of know, I think
we deserve more of an explanation. He's thrying to HERSSI
fit tell us because for someone we seem to crave
the limelight. Disappearing the way he has is not only
very strange, it's also somewhat disrespectful.

Speaker 1 (05:56):
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