Sir John Key: Former Prime Minister talks Donald Trump's victory and impact on NZ

Donald Trump's victory in the United States is being hailed as historic.

He is promising to turn around America, upon his return to the White House.

While Kamala Harris is yet to concede defeat, CNN projects Trump will secure 276 votes, while Kamala Harris will secure 223.

Plus, CNN projects the Republicans will win control of the Senate, while control of the House is still up for grabs.

Former Prime Minister Sir John Key told Ryan Bridge he's not surprised by the scale of the victory. 

"Once you've got polls indicating that two thirds, if not more, of the country think you're going in the wrong direction, when the big issues are the issues you're campaigning on, then a change is very likely," Sir John say. 

He told Bridge there is likely to be a downside for New Zealand - with Trump's proposed tariffs on foreign goods. 

"I think there will be some tariffs, he's talking about 60 percent in China and 10 to 20 percent around the rest of the world," he said. 

"But of course, that has some quite big repercussions, not only for us, but actually the consumers that pay that so I wonder whether that might be tempered a little bit," Sir John says. 

"There is some downside for New Zealand and I'm not going to sugarcoat that, and they concern me." 

But he says there are upsides as well - like a strong stock market and a vibrant capital market. 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Yeah, a pretty resounding victory for Donald Trump. Obviously the
votes have still been counted, but the first time since
the eighteen hundreds that a president has made on consecutive
return to the oval office. Not just that, but at
the moment, winning the popular vote, flipping the Senate, likely
to keep the House, and you've got the keys to
the White House. John Key is, Sir John Keys, the

(00:20):
former Prime Ministries with US is in San Francisco at
the moment, Sir John, Welcome to the show.

Speaker 2 (00:25):
Ron, How are you very well?

Speaker 1 (00:27):
Thank you? What are you thinking about what happened last night?

Speaker 2 (00:32):
Yeah, look, I think there's a few things. I mean, Firusly,
you've got to give Donald Trump some credit for what
has been a very comprehensive when they's supported about he's
really taking control of every every part of government really
from Congress right through.

Speaker 3 (00:47):
I think.

Speaker 2 (00:47):
Secondly, I'm not as surprised. I mean, I know, from
a New Zealand perspective and from a lot of the
media's perspective, they couldn't understand that, they couldn't see it.
But you know, once you've got polls indicating that, you know,
two thirds or if not more, of the country think
you're going in the wrong direction when the big issues
are the issues you're campaigning on this in this case

(01:09):
with Donald Trump, they were the economy, you know, the
border and law and order. Then it changes very likely
and then I think the last bit of it, and
it's a bit I think everyone's really struggled to understand.
And Donald Trump really said that last night when he
was talking, is that this is a movement. And I
think a lot of us might feel uncomfortable with it.

(01:31):
We might not like it. There might be elements of
it that we just can't understand. But truthfully, there is
a movement happening around the world. And I think you've
seen it a bit with Brexit. You certainly seen it
with Donald Trump and the grouping behind him, and you know,
I mean say, you can feel, you know, all sorts

(01:51):
of emotions about that, but you can't deny that it's happening.

Speaker 1 (01:54):
It also turns, does it not, the identity politics on
its head a bit. You've got a billionaire who's getting
support from the struggling middle class. You've got a Republican
who's getting union workers. You've got a white old man
who's getting an increased share of black and Latino voters.

Speaker 2 (02:11):
Yeah, well that's what I mean. I think the question is, well,
what brings all of those groupings together, What are making
those people say, you know, President Trump is my president,
He's the person I want to see in the White House.
How they totally together because they're very disparate groups.

Speaker 3 (02:28):
But it's all of that.

Speaker 2 (02:30):
Yeah, well that's right, fiercely one. They are doing it
really tough. I mean, it's easy to be on the
West Coast or the East coast and that's all left
fland and great. But actually out there in middle of
America and rust belt of America, those flyover estates, people
are shrugging from paycheck to paycheck and we can sit
around talking about globalization, lost things. They just say, the

(02:51):
system makes fair, it's broken, and it's left me behind.
And I think there's something weirdly in Donald Trump's personality.
He is a bit of a brawler, a bit of
a fighter. He kind of identifies with these people. And
I was saying someone earlier, I mean, this is a
guy who gets shot in the head. You can't fake

(03:12):
this stuff. And he gets up in the first reactions
to say fight, fight, fight.

Speaker 3 (03:16):
No one else in the world does that.

Speaker 2 (03:18):
Right. I mean there's nothing, there's something in there about it.

Speaker 3 (03:22):
And I'm not idolizing. I'm just saying it's real that
there's a movement.

Speaker 1 (03:26):
And there's nothing sanitized about him like there often is
about other politicians. What about the terroriffs? This is our
big worry this morning. You've got exporters, the primary industries,
waking up in New Zealand thinking, oh god, we are
about to be hit by ten twenty percent. We don't know.
Plus you've got the trade war potential with China. How
worried should we be here?

Speaker 3 (03:48):
Yeah?

Speaker 2 (03:48):
Okay, I don't think there's any doubt that Donald Trump
will delivered what he said, which is an America First policy.
On the other side of the Queen, the positive news
is we had long we have a long seating relationship
as historical allies, we're part of the Five Eyes Agreement.
We are seen as a sort of friendly country, and
I think there'll be good political relations between the New

(04:10):
Zealand government and the new administration. I think there will
be some tariffsam He's talking about sixty percent potentially in
China and ten to twenty percent around.

Speaker 3 (04:21):
The rest of the world.

Speaker 2 (04:21):
But of course there has some quite big repercussions, not
only for us, but actually for the consumers that pay that.
So I wonder whether that might be tempered a little
bit actually, and then the counterargment. All of it is
as you can see the stock market reaction. You know,
the US economy for at least for a period of
time is going to be very stimulatory, and it is

(04:44):
going to spend money, it's going to invest, and the
capital markets is going to be very vibrant. So you know,
there is some downsides for New Zealand. I'm not trying
to sugar tope that. And they do consume me because
we need trade.

Speaker 3 (04:59):
But I think won't all be the won't all be negative.
It won't all be one way traffic.

Speaker 1 (05:03):
What does Luxeon need to do right now to try
and get us in Trump's ear? Do you think that
we can use the primacy to get a special deal here,
a special exception?

Speaker 2 (05:13):
Well, the thing it can help. I mean, as I said,
you know, we do have a very good relationship and
to a certain degree, you know, Donald Trump's been notorious
for being a deal doer. I mean, like I think
they like New Zealand. We're a little country.

Speaker 3 (05:25):
A lot of what they buy from us they need anyway.

Speaker 2 (05:29):
So yeah, I'm not sure we're going to be hammered
like like you know, there'll be some other countries which
would be much more concerned and worried.

Speaker 3 (05:37):
I think the New Zealand would be.

Speaker 2 (05:40):
So yeah, Look, I think the government's just got to
do it. It's job is ZOO, which is to form
the best relationship it can with any administration. I mean,
the people of New Zealand and the government of New
Zealand doesn't elect the President of the United States of America,
whoever that person is, but it's their job to have
the best relationship they can and you know who knows.

(06:00):
We'll see how it all plays out.

Speaker 1 (06:02):
Thank you very much a for your time, Sir John.
I'll let you get back to your day in San Francisco.
Great to have you on the show.

Speaker 3 (06:08):
No worries mate, all of this.

Speaker 1 (06:09):
Sir John Key, former Prime Minister.

Speaker 3 (06:11):
For more from Early Edition with Ryan Bridge. Listen live
to News Talks.

Speaker 2 (06:15):
It'd be from five am weekdays, or follow the podcast
on iHeartRadio.