Henry Olsen: political analyst on Kamala Harris beating out Donald Trump in Iowa poll

There's questions whether polls from Iowa will affect Republicans on election day.

Donald Trump previously won the state in 2016 and 2020 - but is three percentage points behind Democratic candidate Kamala Harris 

Political analyst Henry Olsen says those figures seem out of step with Iowa's usual trend.

"I can see Trump doing a little worse, but it's hard to see Trump losing a state that he carried by 8 points in 2020."

Olsen is predicting Trump will re-enter the White House.

More than 78 million Americans have already cast votes ahead of polling day on Wednesday, New Zealand time.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:01):
The only Drive show you can trust to ask the questions,
get the analysis, find the facts and give the analysis
together due to clam Drive with one New Zealand, let's
get connected and news talk zid be.

Speaker 2 (00:16):
Good afternoon. We've got another twist in the US election,
which is now only two days away. A poll and
ioware considered a safe Trump state now has Kamala Harrison
the lead by three points. Now. Donald Trump has disputed
the poll in a post on social media, saying polster
j Anne Seltzer as a Trump hater and that Iowa
was farmers love him. Henry Olsen is an American polster
who's been on the show many many times before. Welcome back, Henry,

(00:39):
thank you for having me about now, Henry. Is this
a rogue poll or do you reckon? It's on the money.

Speaker 3 (00:45):
She has a great reputation, so it's hard to say
it's a rogue pole. But it's so far out of
mainstream of where Iowa's been over the last decade that
I have to think that she's got one of those
samples that bolsters say you get one out of every
twenty times. I can see Trump doing a little worse,
but it's hard to see Trump losing a state that

(01:05):
he carried by eight points in twenty twenty.

Speaker 1 (01:08):
Yeah.

Speaker 2 (01:09):
The weird thing about the selection is it feels like
Karmela's in the lead this week. Trump was in the
lead last week. A couple of weeks before that, Karmela
was in the lead. Have you ever seen a race
change the lead this much?

Speaker 3 (01:21):
Not really, And I've never seen a race that's been
fifty to fifty like this. You've seen races that have
a convergence, like carold Ford and Carter where it moved
to fifty to fifty. You have a race like Reagan
and Carter in nineteen eighty where it starts at fifty
to fifty and then it breaks the idea that it's
just been neck and neck, like horses running nose to

(01:44):
nose for half of the race. That I've never seen
anything like that in the presidential campaign.

Speaker 2 (01:49):
Who do you reckon? Is at the moment showing the
greatest signs of strength. I meancause at the moment you've
got a lot of women turning up, giving the Democrats hope.
But then you've also got a lot of Republicans voting early,
which is unusual, giving the Republicans vote hope, So what
are you reading here?

Speaker 3 (02:05):
Yeah, I think there's signs for both candidates. It's very
hard to call this race. But you take a look
at the data on the early voting, and they slightly
favor the Republicans, that women are voting but not at
as great a rate, more than in the past, and
whereas Republicans are voting at a greater rate than in

(02:26):
the past. And we'll find out if those are new
Republicans or if those are just election day Republicans who
have moved up the timing of their ballot.

Speaker 1 (02:34):
Okay, Well, then.

Speaker 2 (02:34):
Explain something to me, Henry, because I thought the Republicans
were getting really nervous, which is why Trump was starting
to behave increasingly weird because I just assumed he was
worried and desperate. If he's not worried and desperate, why
is he behaving like this?

Speaker 3 (02:50):
Well, I think because he's Donald Trump, you know. I
think I think he is older. I think he's wearing
down a bit. I mean, it's difficult for him to
keep up the physical pace that he's been going on
to three rallies a day across the country, and tired

(03:11):
people make mistakes Joe Biden when he was tired, would
have more gaffes, and I suspect for Donald Trump when
he's tired, he lashes out more.

Speaker 2 (03:19):
Okay, so what does your gut say if you can't
actually call it based on what you're seeing, who do
you think wins?

Speaker 3 (03:25):
Well, my actual prediction is going to be posted in
the New York Post Monday morning, and I'm calling a
very narrow victory for Trump in the electoral college. Why
because I think that when I look at the polling averages,
Harris is not winning the degree of independence that she needs,

(03:47):
and that the country has changed. It's moved slightly to
the right in the last couple of years, and that's
reflected in the polling. This might be the first election
in twenty years where the Democrats don't have a partisan
edge on election day, And when you put those two
factors together, it suggests a narrow but wide breath of

(04:11):
victory for Trump in the electoral college.

Speaker 2 (04:13):
Henry, it's really good to talk to you. Thank you
so much for having a chat to us. Appreciate it.
We'll talk to you in soon. Henry Olsen, American polster.

Speaker 1 (04:20):
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