John Zogby: Pollster on Trump leading in swing states

Trump is leading in swing states and pollster John Zogby tells Heather du Plessis-Allan the “path to victory” for Kamala Harris is narrowing. 

Zogby says within her campaign Harris swung the female vote due to fear of abortion laws under a Trump presidency. 

LISTEN ABOVE 

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Heather due to see Ellen.

Speaker 2 (00:01):
But it looks like North Carolina has fallen to Donald Trump.
This is the first of the hotly contested battleground states.
It's been called by ap for him. Trump is so
far leading all other swing states bar Nevada, because counting
hasn't started the yet. Polster John Zogby has been watching
the numbers roll in all night and he's with.

Speaker 1 (00:16):
Us A John, Yes, Hi, how are you.

Speaker 2 (00:18):
I'm very well? Thank you.

Speaker 1 (00:19):
Now.

Speaker 2 (00:19):
We just had Mark Gilbert from the Democrats on with
us about half an hour ago, arguing that there are
still paths to victory for Kamala Harris. Can you see them?

Speaker 1 (00:28):
Yeah, there is a path to victory. It is getting narrower,
to be honest with you. However, in terms of the
popular vote, which is still important California, the big Kahuna
has not been counted yet, and Joe Biden had a
five million vote differential there, so I would kind of
discount the widely that Donald Trump has in the popular vote.

(00:51):
But losing North Carolina was a major blow. I don't
know that the Harris folks were necessarily expecting to win
North Carolina, but it's a big state. Sixteen electoral votes,
and it now makes it a bit tougher for her
to win. Now where things stand, she needs to win

(01:15):
what we call the blue Wall Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania. Two
of those are real possibilities. That would be Wisconsin and Michigan.
But Pennsylvania. God knows when we're going to know about Pennsylvania.

Speaker 2 (01:32):
I mean Pennsylvania. He's got a lead of fifty one
according to AP fifty one to her forty eight with
seventy nine percent of votes county. Can you see her
flipping that?

Speaker 1 (01:43):
Well? You know, what we do know is that typically
in most states, the smaller rural counties have fewer votes
to count, and they get their votes in much more quickly.
It's the bigger cities in this instance, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh

(02:04):
to some degree, Scranton and Allentown, smaller cities, but those
are democratic places, and their votes are are not entirely
in yet. Uh. And then there are the early votes,
the mandatory vote count and so I'm not betting on
anything right now, but it does look like a very

(02:30):
much more narrow path for Kamala Harris.

Speaker 2 (02:34):
That Iowa poll that we got a few days ago,
that really sent a shockwave through the campaign. Can we
call that a rug now?

Speaker 1 (02:42):
Well, we thought that it was going to be, you know,
where it was possible. That's a very good pollster. They're
really one of the platinum standards. Anne Seltzer who polls Iowa.
We do know that she revealed the women's vote was

(03:02):
heavily in favor of Donald of Kamala Harris, and a
lot of it had to do with abortion and fear
of a Trump presidency. We also know that the early
votes have not been counted yet and there was a
differential of eleven points more women voting in early votes

(03:26):
than men voting in early votes. So, in short, this
thing is not over yet.

Speaker 2 (03:32):
When John, when would you say it's over? What is
the thing that you got? Okay, that's what I give up?
Trump wins.

Speaker 1 (03:44):
Well, you know, I was looking closely at North Carolina.
But if there is a loss in Michigan for Kamala Harrison,
I think it's going to be that may be a
bellweather at this point.

Speaker 2 (04:00):
John, it's good to talk to you. Thank you very much.
As John Zogby Polster. For more from Hither Duplessy Allen Drive,
listen live to news talks, it'd be from four pm weekdays,
or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio