You believe the 1000 people (10 March 2025)

Marcus runs a little mid-term political prediction, and talks gold reserves and the Warriors' first game in 1995.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:07):
You're listening to the Marcus Lush Nights podcast from Newstalks.

Speaker 2 (00:11):
I'd be.

Speaker 3 (00:13):
Greenning's and welcome. Woman. Name is Marcus. I hope it's good.
We you are brilliant. How are you all going? Oh eight
hundred and eighty ten eighty nine two nine to detect?
I for one, I'm glad I didn't stay able night
to watch the cricket, so there we go. So yeah,
I'm just seeing a bit of that on the replay now.
But anyway, I'm fantastic to get second. That should be
commended firstly as excited. Well, firstly, no, let's there is

(00:39):
a bit of talk today about politics for several reasons.
One is a poll and one is a member of Parliament,
a former cabinet minister off to climb the base camp
of Everest after just having fourteen weeks off on holiday.

(01:05):
I think it's all the parliamentaryans get anyway, so there
might be some comments about that. That's kind of a
story that's just kind of come out. But however, the situation, firstly,
with the poll, thinking about that today, there are four options.
Christopher Luxon remains the leader of the opposite of the

(01:25):
leader of the National Party, the leader of the Coalition
and he goes to election next year and he is victorious.
The second option is that Christopher Luxen remains the leader
of National and goes to election next year and is

(01:50):
not successful. The third option is that National changes its
leader and goes to the next election and is successful,

(02:13):
or that National changes its leader and goes to the
next election and is unsuccessful. I imagine they are the
four scenarios that really are likely to play out. So
our next prime Minister will be either Christopher Luxen or
Chris Hipkins or some as new person who is to

(02:36):
become the National leader. I don't think I've missed any options.
Remind me if I have. I don't know what people
want to say about that. I certainly don't know what
people's opinions will be, although I did see someone replying

(02:57):
to a using any Herald article about that because it
was the taxpayer's union poll, I think, and the common said, boy,
oh boy, haven't we got anything better to do with
the taxpayer's money than spend it on poles? So not
everyone really understands how polling worked, and there are all

(03:20):
sorts of people saying, well, I wasn't polled too so
there's always a bit of that still remains. Some people
think anysh, you've polled every single person. It's not accurate anyway.
If you got some comment on that, I'd be curious
to know what your comment would be. Oh eight hundred
eighty ten eighty nine two nine two to text. Some
people are blaming the media, but they say politicians blaming

(03:46):
the media is like sailors blaming the sea. It's just there.
Get in touch of you want to comment. Oh eight
hundred eighty ten eightyan nine two nine two to text.
Polls polls. Polls in eighteen months away, so it's a

(04:06):
long long time, a long, long, long long time. Then
we're off to India. I'm not quite sure which way
the trade balance goes with India. I'm not quite sure
what we're expected to buy from India or sell to India.
But this is a biggie. Yeah. I think India is
the most populous country in the world these days. I

(04:27):
think it has overtaken China. So there we go. You
might want to mention that also polls, polls poles. Oh, wait,
one hundred and eighty eight to eighty and nine two
nine two to text. I think you can say anything
you like, but I guess probably it's more better for

(04:47):
the debate if we assume that the poles are done
credibly and with a degree of accuracy, although I don't
know if it's the most decorate of the polling companies.
But anyway, onwards and upwards, I see there's plenty of
people talk about that. Good evenings. It's Marcus welcome.

Speaker 4 (05:11):
Yeah, hi mate, Hey, yeah, you don't often start your
shows we'll talk much about politics these days. And that's fine.

Speaker 3 (05:20):
I tell you what's saying. There's been very little it's
happened this year. I mean, it's always a slow start.

Speaker 4 (05:26):
And yeah, the biggest controversy, well, what was it this
year or late last year, was was some of the
right wingers complaining about Mikey Schumann's presentation of probably the
first pole that Nationals started to go down. I tell you,
here's what I find interesting, just just talking of Mikey

(05:46):
Schuman TV and Z TV and Z did not mention
pole at all, and I'm wondering what is going on.

Speaker 3 (05:55):
So I would imagine, I would imagine I don't watch
the bulletin live, but from what I could see, I
think I just suppose their lead story was about Andrey
Bailey going to climb a base camp of Everest. Am
I right, Make you can't remember what the come on?
Did you watch the bulletin?

Speaker 4 (06:16):
I had it all in the background and I was
waiting for the poll to come on. I mean you
could see the graphics see if I were going to
show the pole. So I flipped over to TV three
on demand, you know, and people, I think I'm a
bit of a lunatic, but I did that and TV
three lead with that pole.

Speaker 3 (06:33):
Okay, there's a lot of people want to talk. You
want to go about Makeey Schumann or do you have
a point to make?

Speaker 4 (06:42):
My point is why is tv Z not okay?

Speaker 3 (06:45):
Yeah, I mean we can discuss the situation. We discussed
the media. I'd rather discuss the situation. Otherwise you're just
going to start chasing political editors and their decisions or
TV editors and that's there's all sorts of reasons for that.
TV is complicated, you know, because for stories you need

(07:05):
often need pictures because if it's just talking heads, it's
not interistic.

Speaker 4 (07:09):
I'll make my point then about the extra politics. I
still godspect the TVs.

Speaker 3 (07:14):
He didn't have at all okay, sorry, mate, Pete, Marcus welcome.

Speaker 5 (07:19):
You know, Marcus, I reckon that. Just let old Chrys
lax and do what he's doing, because what what other
choice do we have? We don't want to have.

Speaker 3 (07:28):
So your your outcome would be lux and remains leader
and wins the next election.

Speaker 5 (07:36):
I think so. I think he's not doing too bad
and don't begin to give a guy a charge. I
think he's not doing too bad and he's been dead
with dealt with add.

Speaker 3 (07:45):
But that's your scenario. He remains and wins the next time.

Speaker 2 (07:50):
Yeah, well, I think so, okay, okay, good.

Speaker 3 (07:53):
On your people. See what happens, Chris, it's Marcus welcome,
good evening.

Speaker 6 (07:58):
Yeah, mate. My observation, whether it's required for anyone, only
people who don't like mister Luxeon are the ones that
aren't kind of vote for him.

Speaker 3 (08:13):
Say that again.

Speaker 6 (08:16):
The only people that don't like the people that don't
like them, they're not going to vote for him. But
as we saw in the last election, he won the election. Yes,
with New Zealand First and Act, but they got rid
of Hipkins and Cinder, and I don't think we are

(08:37):
so shortsighted to give the key to the office back
to Chris Hipkins, I mean, were they.

Speaker 3 (08:44):
So you're saying, okay, if we start working out who
we're polling or going down that it's kind of a
full's Errand political polling companies poll people. That's their business,
you know, so they make a decent fist out of it.
And the polls in New Zealand have really been fairly

(09:05):
accurate the last election. They are fairly accurate. You can
ring up and say brexit, do you want to look
back ten years? Was it twenty sixteen? But poles are
pretty accurate. So so I've had one some person says
that TVNZ's got the wrong agenda to not lead with it.
I think that was their point and now it's the

(09:26):
Poles aren't to be trusted, which is fine, but it
makes it difficult to get a discussion about that. I
just want to know which are the four outcomes of
thing's going to happen? Lux and remains and winds, remains
and losers. They change and they win, they change and
they lose. There are some stories out there doing the
roalds because they are fact. I think that every time

(09:50):
they have changed a leader during a time within government,
that person has gone on and been defeated by the way,
just to say it seems as though TVNZ will never
lead with a They've got their own polling companies, so
they're not going to They're not going to to give
credit to another Polka. That's what people the texts have said. Patty,

(10:13):
it's Marcus. Welcome.

Speaker 6 (10:14):
Good evening, Jay, Marcus.

Speaker 7 (10:17):
Great to talk with you, mate. I love the way
you speak and your last comment TV and JED, you're
dang right. Anyway, short of it is, my thought on
Luxy is.

Speaker 3 (10:37):
That, yeah, Luxy, Christopher Luxeon, he inherited.

Speaker 7 (10:49):
A hot potato and with a name like Patty, you'd
understand that. I would understand that meaning the poor biker
these labor rights. Clearly, I'll vote for Christopher lux Or lustily, but.

Speaker 8 (11:17):
That they blew out.

Speaker 3 (11:19):
So much, Patty, I think we've got a poll out.
We're talking about the scenarios, about what you think is
going to happen. Already we've had tonight, We've had people
commenting about the bias of TV and Z, commenting about
the accuracies of the polls, and now you want to
go back and relitigate the last labor government. I think
we're talking about what's happened with national with eighteen months

(11:43):
and what you think is going to happen in the
next eighteen months.

Speaker 7 (11:46):
Well, hopefully they retain, you know.

Speaker 3 (11:52):
So he stays and they win the next election. Yes,
do you think that's the likely that's what you hope.
Do you think that is.

Speaker 7 (12:02):
Because a lot of people can't see through the fiscal
challenges that this guy and his government has taken on
and partly achieved.

Speaker 3 (12:16):
Okay, so you think he's doing well, but a lot
of people can't see it, that's right. Okay, So if
he's doing well and a lot of people can't see it, right, Ye,
they're not selling their success. There's something wrong with their comms.

Speaker 9 (12:32):
Well, what he is is is that what you're saying,
because the people, if people can't see the success that
he's having, then that's also his problem because he's not
managing to cut through where they all to talk about
school lunches and about Bailey and say this is the
wins we are having.

Speaker 7 (12:52):
Sure, I understand where you're coming from.

Speaker 3 (12:54):
And that is also a criticism of him, isn't it.

Speaker 7 (12:59):
Well, yes, because he is up there as the blue
boy and he's got to take it on the chin.
He's the captain of the All Blacks, I feel like, And.

Speaker 3 (13:14):
What what's Winston? Is Winston first five or the hooker?

Speaker 7 (13:19):
Well, he's a He was a Mary all Black, very
good one too.

Speaker 3 (13:26):
Hang on, hang on, hang on, hang on. Winston Peters
was a Maudy all Black. Yes, you sure that he
was a school teacher.

Speaker 7 (13:43):
Yeah, okay, Winston was. And the three of the guys
that have played footy with and Taraniki were Mardi all
Blacks and total respect, total respect.

Speaker 3 (14:04):
Okay, So what David Seymour then if he's the hoker
wants David Seymour to keep the ruggy going, he'd.

Speaker 7 (14:13):
Be first five.

Speaker 3 (14:17):
You got a little arps gone, hi, Marcus, roll luxel
and get keyback if not. If not, Hopkins will eat
Luxelon in the selection. As for the minister who went overseas,
don't have an issue as long as the tax pay
taxpayers are not paying for it. Well, I don't know
how they leave works or the holidays work, but there's

(14:37):
plenty of time in Parliament's not sitting to go on
your holiday. I would have thought.

Speaker 2 (14:45):
Mm.

Speaker 3 (14:51):
I think Winston played for the Auckland Mauldi rugby team.
You might have been captain there we go. I don't
know that he himself was a Muori all black, but

(15:13):
thank you, Marcus. Are these polls? Are these polls attempting
to reflect public opinion or shape it?

Speaker 7 (15:25):
Chairs?

Speaker 3 (15:26):
John? I think option two equals eighty percent for losing.
If option three and four is evoked, I give it
fifty to fifty. Depeg on who replaces them? Bring on
four years term? Marcus, that guy's right. TV three News
went broke and blamed the coalition, so maybe they both.
They both both love Hipskins cheapest. What are people saying

(15:53):
so talk about my four scenarios? Someone says, Marcus, the
fifth option you left out is whoever replaces Hipkins, he
has to go. He was deep in it with the
excess of crawl Auckland lockdowns and wrecking New Zealand. Don't
forget the winning options. And didn't he make luxon the
prime minister as he claimed last week? Lull Yeah. I
don't see if there's a fifth scenario where Winston Peters

(16:14):
or David Seymour become prime minister. I can't see that happening.
I guess the fifth scenario is a snap election, because
if there is a new leader that comes up that
perhaps Luxon or Seymour says hey, sorry not Seymour or
Peter says, hey, we did our deals with Luxon. We

(16:38):
don't think that the coalition is going to go ahead
and withdraw their support. I don't know how likely they
is because I haven't read the coalition document. Chris Marcus welcome.

Speaker 10 (16:54):
Hey, how's it going good?

Speaker 3 (16:55):
Chris?

Speaker 10 (16:57):
Yeah, there's another scenario that could be at play, like
based on current poll and Winston could swing the other
way to stop Murray Party coming in, if that makes sense.

Speaker 3 (17:10):
This is it the this is it the next election
or this is election? Okay, yeah, but that okay, but
but but Winston, But Winston wouldn't become prime minister. Is
that what you're saying?

Speaker 10 (17:23):
No, no, but to stop that in his sort of
words or thoughts, it might be to stop the lesser
of two evils, like he might decide to go with
Labor and Greens, so to kick the Murray Party out
sort of thing off. The numbers fall that way, so.

Speaker 3 (17:40):
That would still be that would so you say, label
wins and then Hipkins becomes prime minister, right, Well.

Speaker 10 (17:45):
Not necessarily label wins, but it could be sort of
almost parliament, and they might decide to go.

Speaker 3 (17:52):
Talk about winning now, can you Okay, Well.

Speaker 10 (17:55):
He might decide to go that way. So if he's
not going to be in government, he might prefer to
be in government and kick the Murray Party up because
him and the Murray Party don't aligne you know.

Speaker 3 (18:05):
But but that's that's still one of the four scenarios,
and that lux and remains in a successful lux and
remains in its unsuccessful lux and goes and the new
person successful or lux and goes a new person is unsuccessful.
Those still four scenarios are still in play, aren't they.

Speaker 10 (18:20):
Yes, I suppose so, yeah, seems a long way, but
it seems a long way away, it doesn't eighteen months. Yeah, well, no,
things could get better. I mean, the results of the
of what they're doing now could come to fruition for them,
and things might look better for them. But at the moment,
they they're not, you know, they're not.

Speaker 3 (18:42):
But they need to communicate. They need to communicate that.
And all the stories seem to be about lunches and stuff.
That's the thing.

Speaker 10 (18:48):
Yeah, yeah, and without beating on the media and stuff,
that does seem to be you know, what's in the
media at the moment and not Yeah, sort of good
stories coming out, so yeah, nice.

Speaker 3 (18:58):
To hear from you, Chris, Thank you.

Speaker 2 (19:00):
Oh.

Speaker 3 (19:01):
Eight nineteen nine detext the different scenarios in the next
eighteen months and New Zealand politics, what do you think
will happen? And also the former minister Andrew Bailey who
resigned after touching as staffer between the I think it

(19:22):
was between the elbow and the shoulder. He's gone trekking
to Himalaya base camp. Do you ever feel about that? Good? Bad,
or indifferent? Kind of curious? Have you taken that well?

(19:47):
I presume he'll be gone at the next election. I
presume he'll be well down the listed on the list
at all. That's my take. That tends to be how
those things work. Bad stories, they want distance, they want
to be clear of them. Do you have a problem
with that, because I guess the situation was that the

(20:08):
press conference Luxlan was talking about the numbers and then
talk about Andrew Bailey. So once again the story of
a minister that was not fit for purposes highlighted again
the guy that did the l with the forehead for
loser at the vineyard and then touch the person between

(20:32):
the shoulder and the air. We don't really know what
went on there.

Speaker 10 (20:35):
Now.

Speaker 3 (20:35):
You might want to comment on that as well. Eight
hundred and eighty ten eighty nine nine to text Marcus,
it's it's way off the next election. Polls swing up
and down. Give Luson a break, please, it's sounding like
a media beat up against the government, Sharon. I'm just

(20:55):
asking what you think is going to happen. Are we
not allowed to talk about the polls? Could we not
mention them? Because that would be weirder. I think if
we had a pole and we weren't allowed to talk
about it, that would actually be really weird. It would
be like, hang on, we've got a pole here, but
no one can mention it. Because we don't get as

(21:17):
many like we used to. We only get them a
couple of times, although there's several different companies running get
them a couple of times. We're not polled. There are
as many poles as there once were. Sometimes people bring
up about poles and say, are they landlines or are
they cell phones? I think they've got beyond that now.

(21:40):
I think they do landlines and cell phones, and they
do some online. Who knows. I don't a TEXTA says,
I love Luxeon with a passion, great, brilliant, so you
imagine he'll stick around fantastic, love them with a passion, Marcus.

(22:07):
The feeling we get is that we wouldn't want to
be in a tent with him going to first base. Yeah,
the base camp, I think, Marcus not trying to defend
everybody at all, but there are limited windows when you
can track to the every space camp. The best time
of trap are between March to May and September and November.

(22:29):
These seasons are known for their clear skies and stable weather.
Winston was not a Maldy All Black. His brother Wayne
was j M getting touched by names. Marcus httled twelve

(22:50):
oh eight hundred and eighty ten eighty nineteen nine two
to text Bailey needed time to cool off. That's from NOL.
Thank you NOL. So, which are the four scenarios? Do
you think is the most likely? It seems by a
lot of the texts people think Luxon will remain and
be victorious. Is that what you think is going to happen?

(23:16):
I'll drop this down to see if we can compare
Night in eighteen months oh eight hundred and eighty ten
if you want to email Marcus at Newstalks, he'd be
dot co dot ended. And also to this guy Bailey
heading off overseas to go to base Cambiviverest and I'm
sure it's not what Luckson would have wanted. Marcus, do

(23:42):
these polls have any meaning? We are a funny nation.
We go halfway around the world to fight for democracy,
then we don't even cross the street to vote for it.
Cheers John, John, Do you think we should have gone
halfway across the world to fight for democracy?

Speaker 4 (23:55):
Ay?

Speaker 3 (23:55):
You talking about World War two? Is that what you're
referring to? Because a long time ago. Now Argus Bailey
will not return to Parliament, will be reported, there's left
to spend more time with their abominable snowman. Thank you,

(24:16):
get in touch twenty four away from nine your comments,
which the four have I missed you?

Speaker 4 (24:20):
In?

Speaker 3 (24:20):
The scenario is one, two, three, four, lucks and Stays
they win, Lux and Goes they win, lucks and Stays
they lose, lux and Goes they lose. And I think
probably the scenario people that are excited about a two

(24:40):
or three term national government, the one that they are
terrified of is that lucks and stays and they lose
an ex election. It's very very rare for a one
term party, and this normally you get them, you get
the honeymoon, and you go through the roof with your poles.
So I think probably why they are reporting on this
pole is that it's probably against the way things normally go.

(25:06):
What is the PM's favorite vehicle, the Toyota High Luxon
very good vote for the party that looks after peaching
his labor and Winston bad, Luxton and Nets have done.
Now people are quite good with their play on words. Tonight, Marcus,

(25:30):
I think Luson will stay and win. Marcus, I would
like Luxon to stay just to see him lose. Goodness. Oh,
by the way, Winston's off to see Marco Rubio and
it's going to be exciting. George Marcus. Welcome, good evening, Marcus.

Speaker 2 (25:51):
Now, is this's going to be a normal thing that
any MP can take half for two weeks to clear
their head. I think we've got a very weak prime
minister and weak excuation. That's what he says is going
away his head. Yeah, so any MP isn't happened to that.

(26:12):
Now go for two weeks to clear their head?

Speaker 3 (26:19):
You think it's a bad luck.

Speaker 2 (26:21):
It is a bad look. Now what I'm saying, it
might not be a bad look. What I'm saying is
is going to be normal that any member of any
empt they can just take off for two weeks to
clear their head. So it's just the standard. So I
think it's a very weak leader, you know, saying because
I understand that.

Speaker 3 (26:41):
I understand that the parliamentarians get breaks over the summer
because Parliament doesn't meet, and then Parliament starts meeting and
they meet three days a week and it's assumed you're
going to be there.

Speaker 2 (26:51):
Yeah, that's I can't understand, because you know, we are
playing his wages to go and clear his head. In
my ears, you.

Speaker 3 (26:59):
Know, he's also he's also a constituenty MP as well,
so he is here to represent. It always sounds repeat
about the people of Port Wait at all, and he
won't be doing local you know, local committee local meetings

(27:19):
with them. That's not going to happen because he's away.

Speaker 2 (27:22):
Yeah well, well, Crystal equill call people enough bottom seeds
and all that, people who are less fortunate. He's not
to be a primus sinner.

Speaker 3 (27:34):
Nice tear from it, George. They could keep it going people, oh,
eight hundred and eighty eighteen eighty and what do you
think the most likely scenario is of the four lux
and stays and winds and or he goes to national wins.
I think if you change your leader, they say, I mean, look,
you listen to the commentators. The comments say say that
there's going to be a leadership change, but they also

(27:55):
say that if you change your leaders you lose then
next election. So it seems like miss messages to me.
Eighteen from nine Marcus. What Bailey did was not a
sacking offense, and good on him for going tramping somewhere
better than New Zealand. Luxon will see the next eighteen

(28:20):
months through no problem. The fake pole is a storm
and a teacup for the squirming wosters. I think probably
it's fairly interesting to look who did the pole, and
it's the pole certainly not of any left wing party.

(28:42):
That's why people are surprised at it. Of course poles
are done with robustness, but it's depending on the results
on whether they are leaked or not. This is a
taxpayer Union curier pole now the taxpayers union, and I
don't even like to to tear it into your lingua franca.

(29:05):
But the tax pails, the taxpayers Union are not what
you call the wokesters. They would see themselves as the
anti wosters, the fighters of all that is woke. So
that's why people Yeah, so you can't start. Yeah, well,
let me do what you want, Marcus Hipkins all day.

(29:29):
Our country is not a corporate business. How are people
even considering? Luxin is beyond me. Luxon hasn't done anything
but closed businesses and more homeless off these days. Another
eighteen months they will only do more damage. I have
no faith in national Too many jobs lost and people
still wondering how safe their jobs are. I just don't
want to know what happens. Which of the four scenarios

(29:50):
think is the most likely? Oh Gary, it's Marcus. Good evening.

Speaker 11 (29:53):
Huh Gary, you good evening, Marcus, Marcus. I think it
could be the.

Speaker 7 (30:01):
What do I do?

Speaker 12 (30:02):
Mind?

Speaker 11 (30:02):
You just an opinion. I think it could be the
the direction they take in this country regarding for foreign policy,
and that it's very quick to get us into walls
and things like that, and you know, like the health
systems run down, and and now's they're going to find
penny of money for weapons and all the sort of
carry on and you know, you know, give them money

(30:28):
to and training soldiers.

Speaker 3 (30:33):
You're still there, Gary, Hope, Gary's all right? Twelve to nine.
I'm sick of journalists trying to start issues rather than
reporting properly. When will a journalists say what the state
of New Zin would be a labor on the last election?
Labor luck sible when the next lection is leader nationally?

(30:55):
So who's the journalists doing this year? This was a
poll that came out by the Taxpayers Union. They are
a pressure group. They're not journalists. They're a company that

(31:15):
pays a polling company, which they have quite a close
association with money to do polls, and they release those
polls no journalists involved. Then Christopher Luxon has a press
conference and one of the journalists asks him about his
reaction to the poll that says that more people support

(31:41):
Hopkins as prime minister, and Luxon does what any leader
would do and says a variety of things. Is I'm
not really focusing on the poles, I'm focusing getting the
country back on track, or polls go up and down,
or the only poll that counts as the one on
election day next year. Then the reporter said, what's your

(32:05):
reaction to the fact that Andrey Bailey is away tramping
to HIMLA base camp, which makes you wonder what the
person's motivation politics is. Anyway, I'll read the texts as

(32:29):
they come, Marcus, national are and likely to bother changing
their leader because they know the vast majority of voters
find a National Labor Green multi coalition aphurrent. Well, that's
not according to the poll. But so you're saying the
poll is wrong, Thank you, Marcus. Chris Luxon spends more
time overseas in New Zealand, won't stand up to see

(32:51):
more selling assets after twenty twenty six. Gotta go chairs,
Mark Marcus, given the comments from Judith Collins in the
wake of the Chinese gunshments, and I'm pretty sure that
their responsible fiscal savings being made by Willis and lux
And are focused on having his inn realign itself much
more strong with the five eyes of military alliance with
the USA all arranged out of the public eye. Evening, David,

(33:13):
it's Marcus.

Speaker 13 (33:14):
Welcome, Marcus. I support Luxon and have confidence in this government.
But I've got a question for you. Where do you stand?

Speaker 3 (33:29):
So we're talking about which of the scenarios is most likely, right,
that's the question I've put.

Speaker 13 (33:35):
Yes, and this government will go full turn along with Luxon.

Speaker 3 (33:40):
That so okay, So it's a really good question. I mean,
if Luxon, if they go full term with Luxon, will
he win?

Speaker 7 (33:52):
Yes?

Speaker 3 (33:52):
Well, will he win?

Speaker 2 (33:54):
So?

Speaker 7 (33:54):
Will he?

Speaker 3 (33:54):
I guess that's the thing I'm thinking about. So the
first scenario, they'll stay with Luxon. Okay, I think they'll
stay with Luxon. Will he win the next election?

Speaker 13 (34:03):
I guess along with the coalition, Yes, he will hang on.

Speaker 3 (34:07):
David, you asked me which way I stood yes, And
I'm trying to answer that, and I'm saying I haven't decided.
I think they'll stay with him, but I'm not quite
sure if he can change his messaging and turn it
around and and manage interviews to cut through and sound

(34:30):
precise and ask the questions that people love him. I mean,
he's had some media coaching. I don't know if he's
suddenly going to become a much better communicator. I think
that's probably what people are worried about. Are you worried
about that?

Speaker 13 (34:44):
Yes? It concerns me, though I wish he would give
a straight you. So no'll answer and a lot of
questions which are very straightforward.

Speaker 3 (34:52):
But why can't he because he's used to talking points
or he can't think on his feet.

Speaker 13 (34:58):
Yes, I don't know. I think he's just trying to
be the politician that he doesn't want to.

Speaker 3 (35:04):
What's not it's not working?

Speaker 13 (35:07):
Well, I know it's not my agree with you there,
but the alternative doesn't be the thought. Really, I mean where.

Speaker 3 (35:15):
We've been, David. I'm not asking you what you want
to happen. I'm asking you what you think is going
to hit. So you think Luxon will stay and you
think Luxon can win the next election.

Speaker 13 (35:25):
Along with a coalition, So I do I've got to
they must, for the sake of the.

Speaker 3 (35:30):
Country, remove remove that that politicking out of it. I
just try to think what you think is going to
So suddenly he's going to start find his he's going
to become a great communicator and people are going to
see him as one of the great orators.

Speaker 13 (35:45):
Yes, with him at the helm, I think we're best off.

Speaker 3 (35:49):
No, but I'm not asking you that because you yourself
wouldn't be frustrated. You'd be frustrated with him and hosking
and not even giving an answer. It was unbelievable.

Speaker 13 (35:57):
Well, I can give you a yes or no answer.
The yes is that he will be at the helm
and along with a coalition.

Speaker 14 (36:03):
So.

Speaker 3 (36:06):
Suddenly people will find that he's that they will see
how much what a great leader he is.

Speaker 13 (36:13):
Well, yes, yes, because the Canadive doesn't be.

Speaker 3 (36:19):
But the thing is his favorability is going down. That's
the thing. So when does it? When does it turn around?
What does it is?

Speaker 4 (36:25):
It?

Speaker 3 (36:26):
Is it India? Is it the Foreign Investment Summit?

Speaker 13 (36:30):
Is it a is my confidences in this current government,
this coalition. I don't believe in these polls. I think
it's far.

Speaker 3 (36:40):
Okay, So the Poles are wrong, Okay, David, you can't
just always say if you don't like what's happening, the
polls are wrong. It just means that we've got that
these conversations not to have. Marcus electure is October November

(37:01):
next year, which at least eighteen months away, plenty of
time for Pole's medical fortunes to change, my friend, And
that's exactly the point. If they're going to put a
new leader in, they need to do that and get
the person around the countries so people know what they're like.
There will be people within the National Party that will
be panicked about this. I'm not panicked. I couldn't care,
but there were people that will be so so that's

(37:24):
the exact point. There is eighteen months left to go
because you couldn't change the leadership within a year. So
these are the discussions people in the back office will
be having because last time nationally I didn't go well
with leaders they've had Simon bridges, they've had due to Colin.
There were all sorts of people and it was kind

(37:45):
of a little bit fractious. There was people leaking that
you know, and Luxeon came and no one leak. Got
it all together, but people don't, according to the pole,
seem to be in love with him. So that's the
question of asking, which are the four scenarios you think
is likely? Greetings and welcome. I hope you're good where

(38:08):
you are? Eight past nine, My name is Marcus, how
are you?

Speaker 2 (38:11):
Oh?

Speaker 3 (38:11):
Eight hundred and eighty ten eighty And the question that
I asked at the beginning of the show ar coterial.
I'll rephrase it. Out of the four scenarios for the
next eighteen months in politics, what do you think is
the most likely not what you want to happen or
what you think should happen. Well, what do you think
is the most likely? Is that lucks and stays and
wins the next election, lucks and stays and loses, they

(38:33):
change their leader and the new leader wins, or they
change the leader and the new leader new leader losers.
Would I imagine for those people involved in politics and
the two outcomes they don't want is to not change
and lose. Well, I guess it's the only ready, the

(38:54):
only option they don't well, I'm supposed to change and lose. Also,
what's their best path to winning in twenty twenty six?
I guess that's the question. So what do you think
the most likely? Putting aside all what you think is
about polling, about the last labor government, about all those things.
Because I'm hearing a lot of I don't know what,

(39:20):
I'm hearing a lot of metical thinking, but get in
touch if you want to talk funny and very interesting.
Actually where people go and what the snapshot is? Halfway through?
Is it halfway through the cycle? When was the elections?
It took a while before we got the new government,
didn't it because coalition talks took a little bit of time,
do we get it? In November? Was election in September.

(39:42):
We've got a governor in November, September, September, twelve months, October, November, December,
January fifty. You must be the halftime stage. How Come
there's less to non political polls on local government mayors

(40:02):
and counselors than there are for members of Parliament. Okay,
whilst Andrew Bailey's and the Pool on a tax paid
mind clearing exercises. Also a counselor in Scotland on South
Iron ratepayers time and money. So who's going to give
Phil GoF a job when he gets back? I think
there was a poll. They had a poll recently about
which means of which towns people were happiest with. I

(40:26):
think the town that people are the mere that people
are happy with is the Miror of the far North.
Not so much down this way anyway. Get in touch.
My name's Marcus. Welcome, Keen, good evening, Hi Ken, welcome.

Speaker 15 (40:40):
Thank you.

Speaker 16 (40:41):
I'm calling from Wellington, just listening to your quarters and
choices they're regarding the National Party. I was thinking just
as as to move about the Labor Party, and I'll
tell you why they're probably more likely to have a

(41:01):
leadership change.

Speaker 15 (41:02):
And my theoris.

Speaker 3 (41:05):
Hang on, so you think there is a fifth scenario. Yeah,
And the fifth scenario is that Labor changes their leader
and then loses and then loses the next election.

Speaker 16 (41:17):
Well what, well, I'm not sure what the outcome will be,
but what needs me to think that is because Chris
Hitchins lost the last election. And I struggled to think
of a prime minister who lost an election and then
won the next one in New Zealand's history.

Speaker 3 (41:42):
Helen Clark, Oh, you mean that was you mean that
was already prime minister? Yes, was prime minister, although he
wasn't elected. He was elected prime minister, was he?

Speaker 16 (41:57):
No, he he was appointed after Yeah. So yeah, that
probably throws a little bit of gray color.

Speaker 3 (42:05):
And okay, your fifth scenario is that Labor changes their
leader for whom by the way.

Speaker 16 (42:11):
Wow, that's the question.

Speaker 3 (42:14):
And then you think they'll win or they'll lose the
next time.

Speaker 16 (42:18):
I think they'll lose because I think, referring back to
your first your four choices, I think they'll drop Luxton
because the next one and look at either Eric of
Stanfield or Simian Brown.

Speaker 3 (42:33):
So they're both but Luxe and will go and Hapkins
will go.

Speaker 16 (42:37):
Yes, that's what I think.

Speaker 3 (42:39):
Brilliant. Great to have a new scenario in there. Stanfield, Yep, brilliant.
Well she's got the right thing. She's got the confusing
last name that work with Keys and Luxton as they say,
and your center you mispronounce the name. People said to
enjoy that, Denise, Denise, it's Marcus welcome.

Speaker 17 (43:04):
Oh hi Marcus. Look, I'm just SEPs astonished. I mean,
what on earth this is coalition have been doing? I
mean allowing that.

Speaker 3 (43:14):
Denise, What do you think will happen? And which are
the four scenarios will happen? Oh?

Speaker 17 (43:19):
Well definitely lest it won't get in next time.

Speaker 3 (43:22):
Do you think they'll stick with Luxen Yeah.

Speaker 17 (43:27):
I think, well the pretty stupid if they do. No,
I don't think they will.

Speaker 3 (43:34):
Who do you think they'll put in? And do you
think they'll who do you think they'll put in?

Speaker 17 (43:39):
Well? If if my pick would be bishop?

Speaker 3 (43:44):
Okay? And would Bishop go forward?

Speaker 2 (43:46):
And one?

Speaker 18 (43:47):
I think so.

Speaker 3 (43:48):
He's quite popular, he's a good debater.

Speaker 17 (43:52):
And also he's he's got quite a family friendly profile
and he's out there is but I mean the thing that.

Speaker 3 (44:04):
Completely about family tell me a family friendly profile PDA.
Tell me, did you say he's got a family friendly
pope like with Yankee?

Speaker 17 (44:13):
Yes, well he does. He's he's got a really nice wife,
he's got a lovely dog, dog's meat and it's always
about having nice hamburgers. I'm saying with that shows I
mean he's really profile.

Speaker 3 (44:28):
Are following on Facebook?

Speaker 17 (44:31):
Oh no, No, I follow on all sorts of places,
you know, I do listen to Parliament and.

Speaker 3 (44:38):
He's got to meet it. I know he's got a
dog and eating a lot of burgers. I've never seen
all this.

Speaker 17 (44:42):
Oh well, well I have seen them on photos? Would
that would be Facebook? Probably a dog?

Speaker 3 (44:48):
Okay, sounds like your Facebook follower, Greg Marcus.

Speaker 8 (44:51):
Welcome, Hey Marcus?

Speaker 3 (44:54):
Have you good?

Speaker 7 (44:55):
Greg?

Speaker 3 (44:56):
Good?

Speaker 19 (44:57):
I think Blacks is gonna take it all the way. Yes,
we've had a small increases and a few things, but overall,
I think we're in a good step foot and I
think we're going to make it.

Speaker 9 (45:09):
So.

Speaker 3 (45:10):
You think he will stay, and you think he'll win
the next election and he will turn around his popularity absolutely,
and how will he How will he turn that around?
Do you think if your scenario as he stays and wins.
What do you think will happen?

Speaker 19 (45:25):
I think people will get to know him and understand
the way he thinks, and as soon as the country
turns around, they'll see what he is really.

Speaker 20 (45:35):
Do you think you've got to know him, understand maybe
more than know him, understand the way he thinks, and
once the country starts to turn around, I think they'll
a lot more people.

Speaker 12 (45:48):
Would back him.

Speaker 3 (45:49):
How does he think, greg? He said you understand how
he thinks? Tell me a bit about that.

Speaker 19 (45:57):
No, maybe, and to do with the way that he
thinks about monetary and the way that he's just slown
a few things down to be able to understand, take
grip of what he's got and move forward.

Speaker 3 (46:14):
So tell me, So what does that mean about how
he thinks? He thinks slowly?

Speaker 21 (46:18):
Are you saying, yeah, he's just taking in?

Speaker 19 (46:21):
I mean it's not. It's his first time being prime minister.
I think he's just taking a bit of a backfoot.
I don't understand why he's not answering the questions like
he should be, but I think he's just maybe on
his back foot when he's out in the open.

Speaker 3 (46:38):
Okay, so it's okay. Such a media kind of performance yes,
just the media.

Speaker 19 (46:44):
I think he's just got to understand and get a
bit of used to that.

Speaker 3 (46:48):
What is a hard part of the job. It's also
a very important part of the job is communicating clearly,
isn't it.

Speaker 12 (46:55):
No, I agree with you.

Speaker 3 (46:58):
Okay, so he gets the hang of that. But a
media coaching will be good to go.

Speaker 12 (47:02):
I think so.

Speaker 3 (47:03):
Brilliant, Greg, nice to talk, thank you. Sixteen past nine.
Bishop is not family friendly. He's a former tobacco tobacco lobbyist. Marcus. Yes,

(47:31):
it is halftime because Seymour has just become deeply pim see.
I don't think he has yet. I think I think
Seymour became acting primeinis because Winston was away and Luckson
was away. I don't think he is deeply pay but
let me just check that because it will be about now.
But of course there was coalition negotiations took a while.

(47:56):
I don't know what the date is for deep I
think I would have seen more about it, but I'm
prepared to be wrong. Yeah, Seymour will assume the position
of Deptly pro Minister from thirty first of May twenty five,
so we're still March April May. We're still thirty first
of May, We're still ten weeks away, could be eleven,

(48:19):
could be nine. Family friendly nacts, can't face reality, lots
of wishful thinking, tonight, enjoying, knocking myself out, laughing at

(48:43):
their desperation, not the actual words. My Facebook post earlier
this week read has luxeen or Luxey been rolled?

Speaker 4 (48:52):
Yet?

Speaker 3 (48:52):
Must be suit? Its obvious that's from Murray Mark's absolutely
amazing people ambasting Andrew Bailey for going on a trick
to every space camp. What about labor deputy leader buggering
off to Treasure Yland for how many weeks? People in
glasshouses shouldn't throw stones? Who's in the glass house?

Speaker 10 (49:11):
Oh?

Speaker 3 (49:12):
You talk? And that was a Benedict's story on TV.
I don't forget his her name. It's not like he's
a mate. I don't know him. But I think I
would imagine that Carmel Ceppoloni would have gone on Celebrity
Treasure Island with support of her party as a profile

(49:34):
building exercise. So I think it's slightly different. That would
be my take on that. I mean, does that make it?
You might want to comment on that. I don't quite
know the it's a different thing. One guy's lost his job,
resigned and verted Commas and gone away for two weeks,

(49:56):
which looks like a fit of peak. It's not a
good look. I don't even know how, Like yeah, it's
interesting with honestly tries rungs. I don't even know how
if you know how long you're going to be away for.
But anyway, Marcus Luxon resigns, Mark Mitchell, the most likable

(50:16):
National MP, becomes PM, wins the next election of Landslide
and doesn't need Seymour. Oh, he'll go all the way
and get over a fifty crack the fitty. Marcus. I
think National will win. That will stick with lux and
I think they will win the next election narrowly. I

(50:37):
think Seymour will increase the number of seats and Luxon
will reduce his cheers en, which would mean that Luxon
would do that Seymour would get a bigger coalition deal.
Of course, Seymour will be higher profile for the last
eighteen months because the seventeen months or however long it
has succeis Prime Minister Deputy prime Minister, because he'll be

(50:57):
in a strong position. Marcus, I don't think they will
change anything before the next election. Which they will win,
but I think they wolf for the next next one
after that with Erica Standford and Simeon Brown in charge. Ah,
thank you, Hemmy. I won't read that because it's libelous.
Well can you get libelness? Yeah, I don't know. I'm

(51:19):
not going to read that, but I'm hearing you. HEMI
email from Vietnam afternoon from Vietnam. For what it's worth,
I believe the polls are Philly accurate. PM Luxon doesn't
come across well. If the economy in you then lifts,
I believe he will win. If in one year New
Zealanders are still struggling in wages are staying stagnant, then
the many people who voted for him to get rid

(51:40):
of labor will return to labor. Mister Bailey and the
support given to him being away shows the hypocrisy of
national all their talk about teachers having long holidays and
doubts they do any work during them, but saying ministers
are special, they work during their holidays and need more
holidays as a joke. Thanks Roy, hope your holiday is
going Roy. Nice to hear from you. Janet. It's Marcus, Welcome,

(52:03):
good evening, who says it's Jeanette. Is that you Jeanette? Hi,
Jeanette say, I made a bit of a hash of
your names. I apologize, Jeanette.

Speaker 22 (52:13):
No, that's okay. Look now, I don't like Chris Buxton
and Nikola Willis. I think they're really bad for the
National Party and that's the reason why a lot of
people won't vote for them, because they're only interested in
wealthy people. They're not interested in the people that are
struggling with two or three children and they can't even

(52:37):
afford to buy decent food for them.

Speaker 3 (52:40):
So so what do you think is going to happen? Jeanette?
Do you think that he will stay and win the
next election, or stay and lose the next election, or
you think that he will be gone?

Speaker 22 (52:51):
I hope you will be gone.

Speaker 3 (52:53):
What do you think? What do you think will happen?

Speaker 22 (52:57):
I think they'll lose the next election because it's affected
too many people and the prices of things that have
gone up, and in the jobs that people can't find
now are finding it really difficult to live. And I

(53:17):
just feel so sorry for them because you know, we've
had our children and they're growing up now and we
were so lucky. But these people now are finding it very,
very difficult to get by and even to go to
a doctor sometimes.

Speaker 3 (53:34):
But Jeanette, do you suspect that they will stick with
lux in the National Party. Do you think that's what
they will do?

Speaker 4 (53:43):
What?

Speaker 22 (53:44):
No, I don't know.

Speaker 3 (53:47):
That's the question I'm asking you after the poll today
that seems to have been talked on the drive show
and talked on the afternoon show, and it's got a
lot of people talking. I'm asking people what they think
is going to happen in the next eighteen months, if
they're going to stick with the leader and when the
next election, or if they're going to change and win
it as well.

Speaker 22 (54:06):
I just hope that they lose an extellection, That's what
I hope, and I hope that we get somebody decent
in the other in labor that can be more realistic
about people, not just look after the wealthy people who

(54:26):
they don't even make them. A lot of texts they
reduce on a lot of very wealthy people.

Speaker 3 (54:34):
Okay, I live with theregnet, but thank you for coming
through twenty six past nine. Marcus wouldn't trust Luxe as
far as I could throw on the fact he used
the black Mercedes limousine to literally cross the road to
Parliament when he got it, when he got and says
it all hope he's rolled. Net's a spune of smart
crew on the team right now. As long as the
economy improves, labor won't get in with whomever. At the helm,

(55:04):
someone says, well, Winston Peter's ever become prime Minister Bailey
going to red wristers like a political satire, like a
John Clark skit. Get in touch. Oh eight hundred and
eighty ten. In nineteen ninety to text Grant, it's Marcus, welcome,

(55:25):
good evening.

Speaker 23 (55:27):
Oh, good evening, Marcus, how are you good?

Speaker 3 (55:28):
Thank you Grant?

Speaker 23 (55:30):
It went just before we get to the politics thing.
Did we solve the problem with the car and the
excretions from the birds?

Speaker 3 (55:39):
I hadn't thought of that yet, stopped must be it
must be seasonally or al.

Speaker 23 (55:45):
Those positive or the power of positive thinking and everybody thinking. Woman,
it's not very nice those things doing that to Marcus. Karen.

Speaker 3 (55:53):
I hadn't thought of that until you mentioned it, So
thank you for that.

Speaker 23 (55:56):
Hmmm, oh that's good now anyway, the politics right, what
with the scenario this four scenarios, but I may have
thought of another one. I think Luxton will stay there
and show how good national is till the term. Well,
you know, if there's any anybody with their weight in

(56:17):
their golden as a politician would do that. If the
ship gets rough, you don't make you know, you batten
down the hatches and grant.

Speaker 3 (56:26):
Sometimes it's out of your hands because if there's MPs
that think they're going to lose their seat because of
the leader they're trying in, a leader that's going to
be more popular, if you're weld on the list, you
won't want that person.

Speaker 23 (56:37):
Yes, I know, but how could how could that? That's ridiculous.
The person that would lose their seat would be because
they're not performing for the statue.

Speaker 3 (56:48):
When it comes to lists and things like that, you've
got to have the The more support for your party,
the more likely you get back. If you're if you're
a politician that's down the list, you know you want
to you want your good numbers for your party.

Speaker 23 (57:02):
Yeah for sure, But like ah SO list, the MP
it's placed in an area and he has to work
for that area or do the people in that area
vote to that person to represent them in Parliament?

Speaker 3 (57:16):
Yeah? And that's the Yeah, well there's two things. You've
got your list MPs and you've got your electrical MP's
and some are both. Some have electoral enlisted positions, some
are list only, so it is complicated. But if you're
down the list and you're in Parliament and it's looking
you start thinking, hang about things have got to change.

(57:38):
I mean, if Luxon doesn't stay, it won't be by
his choice. That's the way politics works. And yes, of
course he you know. I mean you never quite know.
Someonee ever checked to him. But who knows what's going on?
That's the question, Allison, it's Marcus. Good evening.

Speaker 14 (57:54):
I'm just going to say something about the Carmel Seperoni.
Once you went on the Treasurer Island. They're actually raising
money for charity on that and she came back with
a moon boot on, so it wasn't much of a holiday.
And what they go through on we'll see them, Paul.
There's no fun on there that's different to this trip
that this chap's on. I was surprised they had all
those photos of him. Why didn't he just go undercover

(58:14):
there and just have a secret trip. He didn't need
to tell anyone about it did he I.

Speaker 3 (58:19):
Don't know when that might be from his face, but
I think when Camil Cipoloni went on celeby trees rolling
and she got a huge there was there was huge
criticism from the political parties that she went on there.
So so that seems a bit rich when they're criticizing who,
but they think that it's the right of egos.

Speaker 14 (58:39):
I would have Winston Peter's as the prime minister in
Judah CON's the deputy and there were no cut all
the other people out, and because he's been so wonderful
when Simpeter's I think he's done has just been so wonderful. Well,
I think so anyway, and it's going to be a change.

Speaker 8 (58:56):
That's what I would have, although.

Speaker 3 (59:01):
I can't see any scenario how that could happen. Probably
not No, well, I mean, I mean I don't think
you said in first's going to be the the lead.
Well Nessie says, okay, yeah, I mean he couldn't negotiate
his way and to it, I agree, okay, thank you.
Oh eight hundred eighty Tendyon nineteen nine. Tow to text

(59:21):
let us know what's going on if you want something
to talk about. Oh eight hundred eighty Tenentian nineteen nine
two to text Marcus Luxon to stay and win the
next election. Then Luxon will resign and pass the bat Non.
Marcus can't see how switching out Luxon will change the

(59:41):
direction of the coalition, which is all signed up on agreements.
Reckon their dog, Tucker cheers bears. Luxon will resign, Willis
also step down. Labor will be the next government with
Carmel Ceppaloni as deputy or Chloe Shrawbrook. Jeanette was right,
National will be out. Too many people are strugging under

(01:00:02):
the government. Marcus does It's ever occurred to Jeannette that
most of us wealthy people have worked our backsides off
in our jobs and worked our way up. Our money
was not given to us. We have worked hard, some
of us in the face of much adversity our lives.
Texting us for working hard does not seem very fair either.
Susan Luxeon will go, Winston will be Prome Minister, the

(01:00:26):
National will stay, and I can't see any scenario where
Winston becomes prime minister. I can't see it happening. It
does say well about more about Bailey. While personal leave
during parliament is very rare in the National Party. The
whip considers requests on a case by case basis, according

(01:00:48):
to Luxon spokesperson, and leave granted as with a caveat.
Parliamentary duties are covered and constituents remain supported and the
House sits on Tuesday, Wednesdays and Thursdays for thirty weeks
this year. MPs are office holes and don't get annual
leave like employees. Although standing orders does allow for compassion

(01:01:11):
or parental leave, Permission to be absent must be granted
by a party leader, Whipple the speaker, so it's frowned
upon to leave during the term. And I think wages
a doct if you skip more than three days, so

(01:01:39):
that's a situation with Bailey. No MPs had taken holidays
this year, he said, but no one took leave to
attend one look took leave to attend a family wedding.
No New Zealand First MPs had taken leave for personal travelers.
Yere Party president Julian Paul said they're expected to attendant's
acrcial service for New Zealand. All our MP all our

(01:02:02):
MPs are aware of this Green Party muster of Ricata
Merman in there's march shed while none of their MPs
have taken leave, taken a personal home of the party
to believe it's members taking time to support their family
in times of needs and show them show up for
them on special occasions, so it's frowned upon during the

(01:02:25):
year to go. I don't know where the photos are
of him.

Speaker 15 (01:02:32):
Oh.

Speaker 3 (01:02:32):
I think the photos of him of other places. He
seems to like being in the outdoors of the mountains.
I think he's been to the South Pole. Marcus. It
would be interesting to find out when Bailey actually applied
for the sleeve. Marcus. There's a lot to fix. Interest

(01:03:00):
rates are coming down and Adrian Or has gone we
can't vote out labor and vote in the present government.
I need to take I need to vote Labour back in. Well,
you can do anything you want.

Speaker 7 (01:03:11):
We're in a.

Speaker 3 (01:03:11):
Democracy, Marcus. Luxon spent a million hosting one hundred international
money people to sell news end of the Highest bit
a health and crisis mess, redundancies McKee one of the
return of the Banned weapons et cetera. Will help Luxe
and plummet in the poles and get rolled chairs. Nikki

(01:03:33):
eighteen away from ten Marcus till twelve. If you want
to be a part of the show, keep those texts
coming through or emails. I just said, which are the
four scenarios you think is the most likely? The pretty
straightforward question, Marcus. The government is anti Moldy, anti worker,
anti union, anti environment, anti tenant, pro landlorord, pro employer,

(01:03:56):
pro corporate, pro absence, profit, obscene profit. The government has
made the cost of liling to the cost of greed crisis.
They are out of touch with many enders and will
be gone next elections. So I guess that scenario is
the one that lucks and stays and they get voted out.
Is that what you're saying? But thank you, Ian. He stays,

(01:04:21):
he wins, he stays. They when he goes, they when
he stays, they lose. He goes, they lose. That makes
it sense. That was an eight words, wasn't it. Not
what you think is going to happen, not what you
think's wrong when they go, and just what you suspect
is going to happen, not why or not what you want.
Scenario five, Shane Jones will unite the electorate with an

(01:04:42):
eloquent Churchillisque soliloquy and become the new leader and in
the first Winston will applaud and take up position to
speak at the House Luxe and was ring to take
an unexpected position of the High Comasi of London. Nichola
Willis becomes the most attractive leader of the National Party's
ever had. Wow, here's the classic text. You believe the

(01:05:07):
thousand people polled lull Marcus Luxon will win the next election.
Then Simeon Brown will take up prim Minister with Stanford
as the deputy Evening Marcus, given Luxon is all about

(01:05:30):
KPI's and his down, he should resign and National lose
regardless if he stays or goes. That's Ellen for those
who don't know. KPI is a key performance indicator. Does
everyone know that now? I don't even always know that,
but thank you get real. There's only one pole that matters,

(01:05:55):
and that's October twenty twenty six. That's a line straight
from Winston. Didn't Winston Winston the king maker takeover of
just Sinder for a period when she stood down from
a maternity leave. Could he not stand and again, with
a three way agreement of Luxeon was to pull back Cindy.
I don't think LuxI would want that to happen. I mean,

(01:06:15):
you've got to realize that the National Party will be doing.
What they want to do is to get as much
percentage of the votes as they can. I mean, some
would say if they are having difficulties getting through to

(01:06:37):
the public, and that poll that was released today that
people have been talking about probably would reflect that they
have been that a lot of those problems are to
do with their coalition agreement, that perhaps they made too
many concessions to their coalition partners, so probably wanting their

(01:07:02):
coalition partners, they'll be desperate, I think, would to get
to below five percent and get four percent of votes
that just disappear. And probably the same I think with actors.
I've always had to deal with them and EPSOM, but
I don't know if they require that now. So yeah,
they won't want to. They won't be wanting to give
oxygen to Winston. And that's what makes it so fascinating.

(01:07:27):
It's a tricky kind of time, Marcus. The most likely
scenario is that someone who doesn't know the price of
milk gets replaced by someone who doesn't know the price
of eggs and in other news, who doesn't want other news.
Today in history, this day in nineteen ninety five, thirty

(01:07:50):
years ago today, and I was surprised. I turned on
the news to see in the sports them talking about
this and this day. In nineteen ninety five, the Warriors
had their very first match at Mount Smart. I think
it was called Ericson. Was perchance anyone there? I don't

(01:08:14):
know how big a field they would have got. I
presume it was on a Saturday. There was a all
in the coverage. There was a pre match war based
pre entertainment which I think was to do with Frankie

(01:08:39):
goes to Hollywood war like that one someone would have
gone there. So I thought we'd talk about the Warriors
in their initial game thirty years ago. And yeah, it
was thirty years ago today, So I think we need
to acknowledge that if anyone happened to have been there,

(01:09:00):
thirty thousand were there. Yep. And since then there have
been seven hundred and thirty one matches and the club

(01:09:21):
has had fourteen official captains. Didn't realize Ridgie was the captain.
Brandy Alexander he was there for a year, wasn't he.
There's been a number of coaches and twice the club
has reached the NRL Grand Final and won the Minor

(01:09:45):
Premiership in two thousand and two. So yes, Dean Belly
come home from England to plan that initial match. I'm
pretty sure it was against the Brisbane Broncos. I'll try
and find the team list as well. But if you
were at that match, let me know. We really keen

(01:10:07):
to have a chat about that. What was surprising about
the story on the news was the Jowzy has kind
of remained fairly similar. So yeah, I think too that
they led most of the way against Brisbane and Brisbane
beat them at the end, although probably they should have

(01:10:27):
let them win. But I reckon. But if you're the
original Warriors match thirty years ago, they would be keen
to hear from you. I'll try and find out that. Oh,
here's the team, No, here's the yeah, Phil Blakeshawn Hoppy,
Dean Bell, Manoa Thompson, Fetti, Taiwa, Genamu, Greg Alexander, Gavin Hill,

(01:10:48):
Dwayne Mannhtar Cassini. Here was the crowd favorite, ran with
his head down, Stephen Kenny, Tony Tatupu, Tony Tumavave, Sisamolono,
Tiero Pati, Jason Mackei and Martin Malwana they were the
team and they lost, looking to the website twenty two
twenty five to the Broncos. So I'm curious if you

(01:11:10):
had that inaugural match that was twenty thirty years ago today,
that's the and I think they're called the Auckland Warriors
there and I think the news in Warriors now are they?
But if you were there, it's probably one of the
biggest crowds they've had at eric and I think it
was called Ericson Stadium there. Ericson was the cell phone brand.

(01:11:32):
So if you were at that match, let me know
what the atmosphere was like, what that was like. That
was thirty years ago today. I'm pretty sure it was
a Saturday. Yeah, of course it would have been. And
I don't know if it was round one or round two. Ye,
it would have been their inaugural match. It would have
been round one. I don't think they had a match
in Australia first. So if you're at that match, let

(01:11:56):
me know what that was like. Bere very keen to
hear from you. Just some more texts about lux and
I hope he continues. I like him a lot and
the way he expresses his party, the way he can
tell us about them, and we are talking about the
Warriors the initial match. If you were there eight hundred

(01:12:18):
and eighty ten eighty nineteen, nine, thirty thousand will be
some of you will have been. We're not about tonight.
I'd love to hear from you. Change your topic for
the second half. Two topic note. I don't know what
Dean Bell does now, but he's on the news saying
that one time the Warriors will win the premiership, and
hopefully it will be in his lifetime. They still look

(01:12:41):
quite fit, look like it a few more years to give.
And I think people quite liked the match as well.
It was quite exciting. There might have been a helicopter there. Yeah,
John Marcus welcome.

Speaker 19 (01:12:56):
Yeah, now are you good?

Speaker 7 (01:12:58):
John?

Speaker 24 (01:12:59):
I felt them I should bring you up and say,
and just on perflection, he sounds if you're sort of
wanting someone to ring you up.

Speaker 7 (01:13:08):
So I do that.

Speaker 3 (01:13:10):
Oh yeah, yeah yeah. We sort of spent two hours
discussing that, but you can. I don't want to give
people too much politics, but Ye'll talk to you about it.

Speaker 24 (01:13:17):
Fine, yep, yeah, yeah, no, I think he's he will
win in twenty twenty six. People will see that the
economy is turned by then, and a lot of other
positive things will have happened, and it's the whole team approach.

Speaker 3 (01:13:35):
So out of the four scenarios, you think that he
will remain and they will win.

Speaker 24 (01:13:41):
Yes, and you'll also see he's own first and an
act back and coalition with him.

Speaker 3 (01:13:48):
And why do you think suddenly that has before? What
will what will he do to turn around the Poles
because they say that Poles tend to go one way?
What what will lead to? What will happen for him
to win the people back?

Speaker 24 (01:14:02):
Just the fact that the economy is beginning to improve.

Speaker 3 (01:14:08):
Are you seeing that, John?

Speaker 2 (01:14:12):
Yes?

Speaker 23 (01:14:13):
I believe that's.

Speaker 24 (01:14:17):
There have been a lot of changes. Yes, but then
it was happening prior to the last election. Things are
on the improved.

Speaker 3 (01:14:27):
Now do you think things are on the improve already
and he hasn't managed to convince people of that? Or
do you reckon he hasn't got the story to tell yet.

Speaker 17 (01:14:37):
No.

Speaker 24 (01:14:38):
I just believe people can't see it yet, but they
will see it very soon.

Speaker 3 (01:14:44):
Okay, appreciate your faith, John, Thank you. Marcus still have
the original sign, cap and jersey from the Warrior's second
game given to my brother in Mercy by one of
the nurses. Last smiles from my brother. Great memories. Yes,
my husband and I were there thirty years ago. We
had a group called the Winfield Faro a bunch of

(01:15:06):
friends in the group. When we gathered for games from Tokaro,
we travel up by bus. The atmosphere was amazing. Bumma
Warriors lost was ericson stadium, then Orkan Warriors then been
to that stadium. Heaps Joyce Ross quite a bit discussion
online I assume about Fort Knox. Don't quite know why,
but I've been involved in a couple of discussions away

(01:15:27):
from work with people talk about Fort Knox. So I
have googled up how much golds there. There's one hundred
and forty seven million Troy ouncers, which is about two
hundred and twenty billion dollars worth of gold at Fort Knox.
But what I thought was interesting, the only president that's
been to Fort Knox is Franklin Delano Roosevelt. So I

(01:15:52):
don't know why he's the only guy, because I guess
that's when it happened. They moved it away from coastal
places Inland. I think they're worried about something I don't
know how well secured it is, but they reckon Elon
Musk and Don Trump. Donald Trump are going to go
visit it to make sure the gold is there. Must
have become one of those Internet conspiracies that had all
disappeared or was just painted bars. I don't think we

(01:16:17):
only see footage of it. But yeah, that's going to happen.
But yeah, one hundred and forty seven million Troy ouncers.
I don't know what the measurements of the pile are.
I'll try and find that out. Apparently it goes down
slightly only the amount of gold there because they take
samples to check the purity. Although you think that would

(01:16:39):
be stable, wouldn't you the purity. I'll see how big
a stack it is. But get in touch and also
the Warriors and Luxen and what do you think is
going to happen? Calvin, good evening, Welcome, very good.

Speaker 8 (01:16:53):
Evening to you too, Marcus. I looked on my easy
to see calendar and the tenth of March ninety ninety
five was definitely a Friday.

Speaker 3 (01:17:03):
Oh Friday night match. Wow.

Speaker 8 (01:17:05):
Yeah, and gold. I recall in the last couple of
years reading the amount of gold which has been found
and you know, assembled or whatever in the planet Earth.
It would fill two Olympic sized swimming pools.

Speaker 3 (01:17:18):
It's not much, is it?

Speaker 2 (01:17:20):
Not?

Speaker 8 (01:17:20):
Really? No, so there must be still a lot of
gold on them. They're hills.

Speaker 3 (01:17:25):
It's amazing that Sony people could move so many mountains
to have such a little amount of gold.

Speaker 8 (01:17:30):
It's an absolute waste of time, energy and fuel. Surely,
the sure they can be doing something else because you know,
medically gold isn't use very often and space travel gold
gold doesn't use very much. The other thing is mainly
for people to look how pretty they look in the mirror.

Speaker 3 (01:17:50):
And interesting enough, I was watching a video from pawn Brokers,
you know that American from the Pawn.

Speaker 8 (01:17:58):
Show and porn sars? Is that what it's called porn sars?

Speaker 3 (01:18:04):
Here and a guy arrived with a bar of gold.
But for a long long time it was illegal to
keep gold in the States.

Speaker 8 (01:18:13):
Oh yeah, yeah.

Speaker 3 (01:18:14):
You couldn't have it. Yet you had to hide it
like hide it. You wouldn't to you wouldn't allow to
stop pilot.

Speaker 8 (01:18:22):
Yeah. I don't know anything about that, but it's wonderful
thing that their dollar note is a green color? Is
a green back? Green back?

Speaker 3 (01:18:29):
Why?

Speaker 8 (01:18:31):
Well, I just think it's great because many a song
has been written about today, that green back dollar.

Speaker 3 (01:18:36):
Oh yeah, okay, well I can tell you how big
a pilot is. Yes, I thought I could. I thought
it would be fifty meters by fifty meters or something.

Speaker 13 (01:18:54):
Yeah.

Speaker 8 (01:18:54):
Or the the article I read it said two Olympic
swimming pool pools. Let's going back a few years ago there,
but it is, you know, it's madness taking up go
up TIERR and look at their buddy, big hole. What
a waste of time.

Speaker 3 (01:19:09):
If it were brought together, all the gold deposits ever
mined were just would fill just a little over three
Olympic sized swimming pools. It might have gone, that's gone
up another swimming pools at your day.

Speaker 8 (01:19:23):
Yeah. But my answer was pretty good though, because nobody
else came on board and suggested swimming pools.

Speaker 3 (01:19:29):
Although if you had a football pitch, right, you had
a football pitch and the gold was spread out, it
would be one meter high. That's not much, is it?

Speaker 8 (01:19:39):
Well? What about that that that new glass what do
you call it? What they're playing with the racquet and
the ball and what is it called that game?

Speaker 3 (01:19:48):
Pickleball?

Speaker 17 (01:19:50):
No?

Speaker 8 (01:19:50):
No, no, no, no, No, it's the indoors. Was the
glass squash? Squash?

Speaker 3 (01:19:56):
It's not you?

Speaker 8 (01:19:57):
How many? How many? How many squash? What did you
just say?

Speaker 3 (01:20:02):
Then it's not you squash?

Speaker 8 (01:20:05):
No, No, they glass? The glass is new.

Speaker 3 (01:20:08):
Oh yeah, I like that. Look at the at the
Isaac Royal and christ Church.

Speaker 8 (01:20:11):
Yeah. I was just going to say, Dan, yeah, yees.
So I don't know how many of those full up
with gold would be, but it'll be a few, wouldn't it.

Speaker 3 (01:20:22):
You were in at the Warriors initial match.

Speaker 8 (01:20:24):
Were your Calvin, No, I don't play, don't follow a league?

Speaker 3 (01:20:29):
No, are you're missing out? Nice to talk Calvin. Twenty
five away from eleven. My name is Marcus. Welcome Lux
and Gold and the Warriors. I thought we're going to
stir a nice pivot from luxon to the Warriors. But
now we're going to go into muddy territory. We're going
to combine all three topics. I think, I suspect and
as far as lucks, And I said, which are the

(01:20:49):
four scenarios you think it is going to be the
most likely? He stays and wins, stays and loses, goes
and loses, goes and wins. Marcus Warriors Game was a
Friday night. We were there, great night and great game
and entertainment. Marcus. Remember the first game and the drums

(01:21:10):
watched on TV. There you go true? So far we
get pinged for not back ten meters, Marcus, gold is
at three point five Olympic swimming pools and there is

(01:21:34):
more US currency and overseas countries in the US. Marcus.
Since when was it a rugby union rule that a
player running with a ball cannot jump over an opposing
player avoid being tackled. Yes, I saw that during the
weekend that was disallowed or is it just a northern

(01:21:54):
hemisphereal I swear Rugby Union changes their rules more times
than the worries of changing their jusies. Marcus. First game
was a night game and the end goals were painted blue.
I was gifted the number twenty jersey after the game
and has the blue and gold paint on it. Number

(01:22:17):
twenty was Willy Poaching. I gave the juty to my
grand nephew is currently sixteen years old and with the
Broncos development team in the Australia, going to be a
superstar from Manaewa in time. That first year, the Doggies
beat the Eagles in the final. Wow, that's mainly okay,
thank you for that is I was at the initial

(01:22:40):
Warriors match and I went to several met I was
actually fortunate enough to go to I've told you the
story before. I was fortunate enough to go to the
one of the Warriors matches with Alan Davies, of all people,
he was in town. I said, do you want to
go to the Warriors? He couldn't believe it was hysterical,
as he would because its quite funny. Guy anyway, even
thought the snacks were funny. But talk about the original

(01:23:01):
Warriors year if you're that original match, Oh, Teddy, twenty
three away from eleven and gold. I'm not entirely sure
what the point of Fort Knox is, but I know
that people love gold and love backing the US currency
or know it's no longer backed, and talking about things
like that, And now I think they end of a
Fort Knox of crypto. I don't know what I'll be

(01:23:23):
in there, like a laptop, but do talk you want
to talk. But that's funny about all the gold has
been Mine would cover a football pitch to a depth
of one meter, hardly any at all when you think
of all those fields that Parker digs up, all the

(01:23:44):
dirty moves, and that stupid family that says the prayer. Oh,
they drive me crazy. You watch them. I'm not the
what's their name? They go with the silly beard. Oh,
for goodness sake, you know that. The gold miners, you
know them? Oh, what's the family? The stupid Hoffman's. They

(01:24:08):
never find anything. I don't say a prayer, you probably
have more luck. Jeepers. They drive me crazy. Don'll gather
around say the prayer. I don't know what the prayer

(01:24:28):
is actually anyway. Mark has googled Todd Hoffman singing Sound
of Silence. The man can sing even if you can't
take gold. I won't google that. This sort of thing
I would google. I think they get their grandfather in

(01:24:52):
to say the prayer. He seems to be sort of
like the pastor of the family. Someone's made the very
good point via text. How far back does the amount
of gold go? Is it back to the old days
or later? Is it records are kept. I don't know
the answer about that, but I presume I'm just reading
a book at the moment about the Nevus and gold

(01:25:13):
up there. I can't say too much but I suspect, well,
I suspect when there's always been records kept of how

(01:25:34):
much gold has taken. But then why would you if
you're just trying to use it as a legal currency.
I don't know how they know how much, but in
the book they always talk about how much gold came
out of fields and things like that. It's a very
good point, Marcaus I've just checked on my computer. On
the tenth of March nineteen ninety five was a Friday,
so the Warriors game was on a Friday night. I
hope this helps. Why did you talk to people that

(01:25:55):
were there on the Warriors at their first match against Grisbone.
There was much There was much excitement at the beginning
of the match, there was kind of a war thing,
and then the game happened and the Worries it very
well but lost toward the end. Then people spent the
next hour wandering around Penrose looking for their cars because

(01:26:16):
for a lot it was unfamiliar territory. Tell you what.
Speaking of Mount Smart, I'm watching the drifting on TV
in the car packet. Mount Smart looks like it's quite
a good venue for that. I thought it was going
to be inside the stadium, which I surprised at. But
it's a kind of in the area. Outside looks like
quite a good venue. I've got no idea how drifting works.

(01:26:39):
It must be quicker ways to get around a track,
but I think you judged on how good your skids
are or something. But yeah, I'm not really a drifter,
although I've watched all the Fast and the Furious movies
over the summer. Marcus Today, tenth of March is also
the thirdieth anniversary of the Judith Durham and the Seekers

(01:27:01):
content the Bowl of Brooklyn's and New Plymouth. Next stage
after the show, Bruce Woodley asked me if I knew
the score of the Warrior's Game. I didn't. I'd been
watching a fantastic Seekers concert. It was a great night
and Judith and the boys were in fine voice, but

(01:27:23):
at Team Down we got soaked. Judith remarked that they
glad wrap the speakers. It was a Friday night. Barbara, gosh,
what about Ethel? Was he there on the double bass.
I'm trying to think the last year I saw the
The last year I saw the Seekers was probably that year. No,
it's probably slightly earlier. It was probably nineteen ninety three.

(01:27:44):
I think, what a great band, but great the bowl
of Brooklyn's cheapest. Someone has said online that Andrew Bailey
could be the first person to touch a Yetti's upper arm.
It's quite a funny thing, right, That's made my night anyway,

(01:28:06):
I get in touch by name's Marcus, Welcome. It's Gold
and the Gold Reserve, Marcus on Footune. Judith passed away
on the fifth of August twenty twenty two, age seventy nine.
The three Boys are still with us. That must be
not her boys, but Ethel and the Ethel with the
abe link and bed and the double bass and the

(01:28:26):
other two. What a band, Marcus. The Seekers music was
a soundtrack in our home growing up. I saw them
in ninety nine out and Willington, their last TI. It
was so nostalgic. Judith has passed away. My favorite song
would be Colors of My Life and I think of
my recently past mother when I hear it. You think

(01:28:47):
we all had a bit of the Seekers in our background.
I mean with train whistle blowing jeepest creepers, what a
bang that was, Marcus. Don't knock it till you've tried.
At Re Hoffman it's what's your recommendation, Try the devil.
It's a show. What does that mean? Fort Knox Gold

(01:29:08):
probably lead covered in pretty paint and he's in the
next PM. Don't forget Winston. There's no way that Winston
could become prime minister. He's not gonna get New Zedand
first about thirty five percent. He's done. No way all
your people think are he's going to be No way
in the world could he be prime minister? Someone says.

(01:29:31):
Fifth scenario NATS drop barely and polls Lux and stays
leader of the GNATS. Winston takes over his prime minister's election.
David Seymour, Deputy, they win Landslide. I think the point
you don't the point you don't get is that the

(01:29:53):
whole point of National is to get as many votes
as possible and to make Nash, to make news Land
first and ACT. They want them to disappear. They don't
want to be going into negotiations with ACT in New
Zealand First when they've got ten to fifteen percent of demand.

(01:30:13):
Too much. They gave them too much this time anyway,
they want to be taking votes off New Zealand First
and ACT, so they're not going to make Winston prime minister.
Do not make any sense, not to me anyway. But
I like your fifth scenario. I say this fourth scenarios

(01:30:34):
one is that Luxon remains and he remains a leader,
and in twenty twenty six they have a victory, or
he remains and they lose, or they change leader. And
if that's their decision, they'd need to do it soon
for the new leader to bed in and the new
leader wins, and they'd be exciting for everyone they think

(01:30:55):
that was a great thing, or I mean the people
involved in the party. Or they get a new leader
and the new leader losers, and I'm sure that the
people on the right I would say that as a catastrophe.
That's the discussion for tonight. Yeah, seven away from eleven.

(01:31:19):
Good evening, Scott, ats Marcus, Welcome and greetings.

Speaker 21 (01:31:23):
Good leading Marcus.

Speaker 4 (01:31:24):
How are you good?

Speaker 3 (01:31:25):
Thank you? Scott.

Speaker 21 (01:31:27):
I hear you, hear you, hear you. Play out your
four scenarios. I'll tell you my crystal ball gazing of this.
I don't see Christopher lux And lasting beyond this month,
to be honest, I think, unfortunately the talk of his
leadership is now the talk we're having the conversation now,

(01:31:48):
and as people with a lot of experience in politics
like yourself would agree, is these generally become self fulfilling prophecies.
So the fact we're talking leadership probably means it will happen, although.

Speaker 3 (01:32:03):
There's although there are other people who say that they've
never managed to change a leader midterm and have that
person win the next election.

Speaker 21 (01:32:18):
Oh, look, I would do. I would say that is
I would There's many, many, many things I'd push back,
but sort of the point I would make is, well,
they continue to talk about his leadership, he hasn't warmed
with the electorate. They don't like him. I don't think
that can be undone. Whereas I think there's definitely figures
within the labor cabinet, which is sorry, not the labor cabinet,

(01:32:42):
the national cabinet who could definitely possibly win some more
votes back, but also just give a remove that sense
of chaos from government. Ultimately, ultimately, you know, you're damned
if you're doing you're damned if you don't. But if
they can stop, if we can stop talking about leadership
and stop talking about chaos, maybe the government are be
able to get on and start talking about what they've

(01:33:04):
done what they intend to do and get them hit
and get the narrative back, which at the moment Luxon
has no ability to do that in my opinion.

Speaker 3 (01:33:12):
But there's not a Bob Hawk or a John Key
type person waiting. That's I mean, when you talk about
who replaces them, it's just which you know, there's four
names that are mentioned, Mark Mitchell, Erica Stanford, Chris Bishop
and Sibby and Brown. Well none of those are the
clear leader, are they?

Speaker 21 (01:33:33):
Absolutely not? But I think the other side that you've
got to look at, And I mean, look, you know,
I'm very happy that the NATS are in the position
there and I'm not a national party voters, so therefore
is you know, I'm happy, but take if you take
a look at my side of the aisle for a
minute and talk about who the labor leader is and
what's there on the labor side of things is. I'd

(01:33:55):
also say there are a number of people who aren't
necessarily that fond or think too much of the labor
leadership either. So I think, you know, it's important right
now that we, you know, sort of get some perspective
back to what the issues are and do that. And
I think unfortunately for the current government. I think that

(01:34:16):
Christopher Luxon probably is not able to do that in
a way that any of those other full names quite
possibly could. Irrespective of I totally agree with you. They're
not a John Key or a or any of these
other figures who would just light up the room.

Speaker 7 (01:34:29):
Yeah.

Speaker 3 (01:34:30):
I mean Bob Haork was the extraordinary god because he
was a Hither of trade Union just came in and
became Prominus of straight away. He was so sort of
love from a different sphere.

Speaker 21 (01:34:39):
Absolutely. I mean, you know, look, I've just been over
in Australia the last week or two, so you take
a look in Australia and the Australians suffer from the
same kind of thing. They don't have these big charismatic
figures that you're going to be people that people just
ride along with. And I think that's where you know,

(01:35:00):
you're going to focus on what you're doing and where
we're going. And the difficulty is as well than that,
continuing to have internally what we what should we do
and you continue to have the likes of Winston and
David Seymour make him look weak and foolish as he's
not going to be able to have any control of

(01:35:22):
his government at all, and so you can either have
the slow death to the election or make a change
and try and do something different.

Speaker 3 (01:35:30):
I'm good to live at there s God, but thank
you ruvery much for that. So far tonight we've talked
about what you think is going to happen before the election,
and you said in politics, which are the four scenarios.
We've also talked about the Warriors their first match this day,
this date, March ten, thirty years ago, nineteen ninety five
at Ericson Stadium as it was thirty thousand watch the

(01:35:53):
Warriors play the Brisbane Broncos and lose, came close to
winning it. I don't know how that first season when
you go unlock, but yeah, and there we go. There's
been thirty years of Oh it's been a tough thirty
years for Warriors. There's been some highlights, but there's also
been times where they've thought that they've had it all

(01:36:15):
going on and then things have kind of gone badly.
I was going to say disciplines. It's gone a lot
better these days, but I'm hearing about the assistant coach
or something. Anyway, do get in touched you on tour
that and also gold and how much gold there is
in the world, and why they bother with Fort Knox,

(01:36:35):
although it's a great punchline because it's a secure as
Fort Knox, because Trump and Trump and Musk are going
to go look at how much gold was here. The
last present was Franklin Delano Roosevelt. If I was present,
I want to go and see it. That's the discussion tonight.
So if you want too about those things or anything else,
be my guest. Absolutely, oh eighty nine nine would love

(01:37:00):
to hear from you. I'll get that. My computer's just
really gone badly. Dan, I've got the text one. It's
just everything seems to be very slow to build up.
Now do you know what that's about? Marcus, No other

(01:37:21):
current Prime MINISTERI or candidate has any suitable issue to
empower them. Hang on, bring this. Luxon will use fair
tactics to get the electorate to vote for his plan
to cozy up to the American and August he will
win a narrow victory and be re elected. Marcus, mister
Luckson is working well, getting the country back on track

(01:37:42):
and holding the coalition together. I don't know anyone who
is talking about his leadership except the media. Well the
story of the polls when he just come out, so
you probably won't. Although all the people that run tonight
were talking about that. I think he is the best

(01:38:04):
person for the job at the moment. Yes, he has
a different style from John Key and Jacinda Ardun, perhaps
more business like. Please give him a break. I don't
fancy any of the others mentioned as a leader currently.
There is still time until the election. Can't regard to
enjoy progger much love Penny Maus. Chris Hopkins will win

(01:38:39):
the next election. My friends and family are down on
this coalition government. I'm not surprised with the current poll.
No one in the coalition Peters or Seymour are standing
by Luckson. They are both doing the opposite. What the
heck they are destroying their own coalition. That's from Die Marcus.
Christopher Luxon is the new zeenand version of Australian's Malcolm Turnbull.

(01:39:00):
Alert to the left of politics and centrists that quickly
switched followers off. Luxon must decide what stands for. He's
brassed off the rural sector, farmers and conservatives alike. He's
harder on his own MPs in his opposition and his
own MPs present veteran media with concise distinct answers. Mark

(01:39:21):
Mitchell would be a good replacement, but it's too early
for Simeon Brown. I haven't heard any Could someone tell
me why he's brassed off the rural sector. I haven't
heard that Marcus Luxon has one last chance with a

(01:39:42):
summit failure. There off to India. Louise Upston Leeds, Marcus,
totally agree with you. Hoffman's drive me crazy. Well, they're
just so bad at gold who suggested Mark Mitchell for
prominence and Luxe is bad enough, but Mitchell would be
even worse. Doesn't matter who takes over, they are gone
on the next election because we'll get messy with Peters

(01:40:04):
and Seymour if there's a change of PM. They are
running the show. Marcus, The thought of disposing Luxon in
a short stint is such a short sighted attitude. I
feel he's there a lot to clean up required he inherited,
but for God's sake, given at least a term to
carry out his game plan. Sometimes we have to go

(01:40:25):
backwards to go forwards, rather than tell everyone what they
need to hear. We just need someone to be passionate
in front up and he has. Sometimes he's just doing
what he can to drive positive outlooks. It doesn't come
off like a perfect politician, but those perfect politicians before
him were enough said, maybe trying a wild cut isn't
such a bad way to go to change up the

(01:40:45):
old boys club, putting in a new manager, supervisor, coach
or the CEO of the biggest operation. No, it doesn't
make sense for the end anyway, Marcus. No, one of
my circle of friends likes Luxon and most despised Seymour.
You'd agree Peters is a great foreign minister, Susie Bruce.

(01:41:06):
It's Marcus.

Speaker 6 (01:41:07):
Welcome, Hello, Marcus. Hi, Hey, you look.

Speaker 12 (01:41:13):
You know I've been a little bit of an observer
over time. I'm only young, if you like. I'm forty
years old or thereabouts, and I've been a bit of
an observer of New Zealand politics for for a couple
of decades, if you like. And I guess I live
in a town where Winston Peter's always been a bit
of a champion, you know, with the older population. Yeah,

(01:41:35):
but he's obviously had his own.

Speaker 7 (01:41:39):
He's had his.

Speaker 12 (01:41:40):
Own winnings and failures, and we can see all that
if we can to look back. But with regards to
where the country's at right now, if we're talking about
polling right now, we're basically just fantasizing. Really only we're
fantasizing about what Luxe and could do. You know, what

(01:42:03):
the political left or right will bring to the discussion
and the table.

Speaker 3 (01:42:08):
Sorry, Bruce, you've got a bit vague on me. The
question I was asking, which are the four scenarios do
you think is the most likely to happen? Lux and
stays and wins, stays and losers gets rolled and they win,
gets rolled and they lose.

Speaker 12 (01:42:21):
I don't really buy into any of those scenarios, Marcus,
hang on, think it's worth.

Speaker 3 (01:42:27):
Hang I've given you four scenarios. One of them will
have to happen. Which one do you think is going
to happen?

Speaker 12 (01:42:33):
Well, it's not a checkbox, mate, there's not a multiple
choices that. It's like the economy.

Speaker 3 (01:42:38):
Literally, the question I've asked is this four scenarios, what
do you think is the most likely.

Speaker 12 (01:42:44):
I've crushed your phones before?

Speaker 3 (01:42:46):
And who oh, I at eighty to nineteen ninety to text.
I don't know what, I don't know. I don't know
what the situation is with Luxon and the rural sector.
Have people not notice? This is a text of people

(01:43:08):
not notice that Seymour dropped and Pollen Act also dropped.
I think people are probably just digesting that. And if
everything I've said tonight, the thing that's given me the
most joy and hope is that so many people have
a lot to say about the Hoffmans as gold miners
because they're so dreadful Marcus. The Hoffman clan are clearly

(01:43:30):
known as the migraine miners. They give me a migraine
every time I watch them, which is which isn't that often?
Never seen any West Coast alluvial miners doing the high
five rubbish or huddles that saying God we pray total rubbish.
Coast miners just are like crowbars, hard, tough, do the
job and never bend. That's a that's a West Coast

(01:43:51):
gold miner I've got about there. I think they did
their dosh pretty keen that pretty quickly. The old Hoffit,
I don't know where they got their money from. Was
the old guy look something of a Simpson's cartoon who
did the prayers? Anyway? Rural sector farmers, rural communities are
brassed off with a relentless commitment to net zero. Are

(01:44:13):
no policy changes of climate change at Farmers and growers
are some of our most resourceful as stuarts of the land.
But we need another farmer running the country. Have we
got any farmers there? That's what we need. When was
the last time a farmer ran the country? Was it Bulger?

(01:44:34):
Was Shipley a farmer or kindy teacher? Cald be both?
I suppose, Marcus, I'd like to know how many people
used have gold stalled or buried at their house doomsday prepased? Well,
they're not going to tell you, are that in case
you come around, Marcus? You are asking the one sided question.

(01:44:55):
What about does hip can stay or go? And do
they win or lose? You don't think that's right. More
businesses would have died before they hadn't been paid to
stay in business. The middle central voters lived off the
taxpayer through labor paying their wages. How soon they forget
they were the cause of handouts and money printing. We

(01:45:16):
sure have just let more companies go broke than that
would have cost us less. Now seniors and young families
cannot afford to be a national voter. Oh, twenty five past. Hello, Joseph,
it's Marcus. Good evening, Holy Marcus.

Speaker 15 (01:45:37):
On lost and I think I'm going to give you
a fifth option.

Speaker 16 (01:45:40):
Oh yay.

Speaker 15 (01:45:43):
And the fifth option is New Zealand First will Act
win and National gets relegated to second place.

Speaker 3 (01:45:51):
But I didn't. I mean that looked that looked very
unlikely given the poll today, didn't it?

Speaker 7 (01:45:57):
It did?

Speaker 15 (01:45:57):
Actually, it quite surprised me when I looked at the
poll that looked like Labor had picked up National's loss. Yeah,
because I would have thought.

Speaker 3 (01:46:04):
I think I think Labour might have taken some votes
from the Greens were down, weren't they?

Speaker 15 (01:46:09):
Oh there was. I think they were within the normal
fluctuation the Greens. But it was noticeable that that Nationals
drop was matched by Labors pick up.

Speaker 3 (01:46:18):
Yes, no, I think I was sorry, just I just
I just have to question you on that. From what
I saw, National was up and Labor was up.

Speaker 15 (01:46:37):
Maybe I'm thinking of another one. I saw another pole.
I thought it was the Curier one, but.

Speaker 3 (01:46:42):
No Labors on thirty Labors on thirty four up two
point eight, Nationals on thirty three up one point seven.
The Greens are down three point two x down two
point three, MAULTI parties up two point one. You said
in first down one point three to ride on five percent?

Speaker 15 (01:47:01):
Okay, I might might be finished thinking about when I
saw earlier in the week, because it looks like when
I saw the up and down that it looked like
they had gone from from National to Labor. But no,
maybe not, it's not the case.

Speaker 3 (01:47:13):
So I think that Labor might have taken some up
from the greensman. Oh well, time will tell. Oh watch
your scenario, Joseph.

Speaker 15 (01:47:18):
Anyway, Yeah, because I think that National we'll lose votes
to Act into New Zealand first, and actually I think
on the polls it's a huge jump anyway. But the
possibility is that one of them will pick up enough
notes and they're actually bigger a National and they will
become the next leading party.

Speaker 3 (01:47:38):
And would that be the government? Would that be Act
on New Zealand First?

Speaker 15 (01:47:43):
It could be either At the moment I'm thinking probably
more likely New Zealand First and Act.

Speaker 3 (01:47:48):
Okay. Jeepers Marcus granddad Jim has lived through many political cycles.
He's already highlighted ericas Stanford and making all the right
moves to position herself to roll Luxon. Thank you for that, Marcus.
I'd like to take my wife away to some sort
of beach North Island, a beautiful setting in the classic
KEEPI Holiday. Can you or interview list to suggest a spot?

(01:48:12):
What time of the year, Dave Marcus getting on text
or phone in with a percent of games won by
the Worries in the last thirty years, My guess is
eight percent of games. Thank you, Steve. Oh there we
gotn't know that. There we go, Bears, Thank you Bears.

(01:48:32):
It's a good text. Visited Fort Knox in two thousand
and five. Good visitor center and tour open to the public,
gold off limits though still enjoyable. Jeers, Bears. I had
no idea that you could go there. I don't even
know where it is. All I know is Fort Knox

(01:48:52):
is used more as a metaphor than an actual place,
with people saying things like jeez, like Fort Knox in
there that means very hard to get into, Like Fort Knox.
It's in Kentucky. Why is that not on the chase.

(01:49:15):
It's south of Louisville and north of Elizabethtown. And yes,
I'm going to go look at a Google Maps. Zeb's
obscured jupist creepers. It's like Fort Knox. Wow, what is that?

(01:49:40):
It's like a whole military center. It's like in the
middle of nowhere Fort Knox. I had no idea. There's
an airport. Well, I'm an airstrip and on the airport
as such, I'm not quite sure where the gold is. Oh,
there is Fort Knox. Huh, fascinating. Thank you for that.

(01:50:05):
That's texted me about that.

Speaker 16 (01:50:08):
Good on you.

Speaker 3 (01:50:08):
Going on a tour feels looks like it's in bush
and forest. Hard to get into. Eight hundred and eighty
eight twenty away from twelve. My name is Marcus. Welcome
Beach is why poo Cove or halpy Mahia Beach? Oh harpy,
He's got two votes. I'd like to take my wife

(01:50:29):
away to some sort of beach nor thigh on a
beautiful setting, Lang's Beach, whypoo Cove anytime of the year,
as long as you have a lovely shower at the end.
I've got bad memories of Lang's Beach. Played an insufferably
long game of risk there. I can't think why, why's

(01:50:55):
else will we be playing risk on holiday? I think
someone thought it was a good idea. And no one
actually decided to give up on It went for days
like risk does and you never finish. It wasn't risk.
It was risk where you have cards for your task,
not like it wasn't good. But one of the kids

(01:51:20):
asked the weekend, can we play risk where we can?
But let's do something else instead. I valued my time.
Hello Barbara at s Marcus Welcome, good evening.

Speaker 18 (01:51:34):
How are you tonight?

Speaker 15 (01:51:35):
Much do you?

Speaker 3 (01:51:35):
Barbara? Thank you yourself? Oh yeah, not.

Speaker 17 (01:51:38):
Too bad, not too bad.

Speaker 18 (01:51:39):
We've had a few cups over the last twelve months,
but we're getting there. Than listen, what's the story on
the sky dishes?

Speaker 3 (01:51:49):
I don't know. I find it really confusing and sky wet,
Sky ain't good with communication.

Speaker 18 (01:51:58):
We don't have sky, but we have got a sky
dish for our reception for our TV.

Speaker 3 (01:52:03):
Oh yeah, of course.

Speaker 18 (01:52:06):
And I was just wanting to find out do we
have to get do we have to get something else?
Or what's the story Dan?

Speaker 3 (01:52:12):
Do you know anything? I don't think you have to
change something new satellite. We'll come in sooner replace that.

Speaker 18 (01:52:22):
Okay, So do we have to do we have to
get somebody to come in and put a.

Speaker 3 (01:52:25):
New dishup or what I think the satellite will go
in the same spot.

Speaker 18 (01:52:30):
Okay, because we don't have Sky, but we have the
dish for the reception for our TV.

Speaker 3 (01:52:35):
I think a lot of people in that situation. I
don't know what happens.

Speaker 4 (01:52:37):
Then.

Speaker 3 (01:52:38):
Is your reception been all right recently?

Speaker 18 (01:52:40):
Yeah?

Speaker 3 (01:52:41):
Yeah, yeah, you're fighting much to watch, you're finding much
to watch?

Speaker 18 (01:52:49):
No, No, we don't. We don't don't watch a lot
of TV a tour. We don't turn our TV onto
about five o'clock and then turn it off about well,
we've just turned it off now. So yeah, so yeah,
I enjoy listening to you, and I enjoy listening to
all your hosts that you have on as well.

Speaker 3 (01:53:08):
Barbara, hang on, Barbara, yep, I'm here. There's something from
Sky I can tell you. The satellite caring is in
free too. A TV transmission to retire soon to freeview
satellite TV service must move to replacement satellite in early April.

(01:53:31):
That won't matter if you use a uh IF aeriel
or the freeview steaming TV app to watch live TV
and the and the app that will be seamers for
most people tuned in through a satellite dish However, old
ted light boxes should be replaced before April to keep
accessing live TV.

Speaker 9 (01:53:51):
We don't.

Speaker 18 (01:53:51):
We don't have a box or anythink. We just we
just we just have the freeview TV that's connected up
to the dish.

Speaker 3 (01:54:00):
Not sure how you're getting freeview? Here's an easy way
to tell. Have you got freeview? Are you getting if
you're getting three?

Speaker 15 (01:54:10):
Right?

Speaker 18 (01:54:11):
We can watch TV one, TV two, TV three TV
for all the other all the main channel.

Speaker 3 (01:54:17):
Do you have Georgia femone channel seventy?

Speaker 19 (01:54:20):
No?

Speaker 3 (01:54:25):
This is how do I know if I'm getting free
v VIR? I said you were fear for streaming. If
you're getting free V through a satellite dish, you should
have Georgia fem one channel seventy. You probably have.

Speaker 18 (01:54:33):
Well, we don't. We don't even like we we don't
even go up to TV seventy. We just watched what
we watched one from one till twenty five on TV
and that's about it.

Speaker 3 (01:54:48):
However, oldest satellite boxes should be replaced before April.

Speaker 18 (01:54:52):
We haven't got a box. We haven't got a box
or anything.

Speaker 3 (01:54:55):
Sure, we haven't.

Speaker 18 (01:54:56):
No, no, no, we just got the dish.

Speaker 3 (01:55:01):
Would that be right? Dan? Wh should not have the box.
What channel is Sky open on, Barbara.

Speaker 17 (01:55:20):
Look if I go and.

Speaker 18 (01:55:21):
Turn our TV on, now I can get all the channels,
bar bar for anything to do with Sky. Well, we
don't have Sky sports or anything.

Speaker 3 (01:55:33):
So she gonna We're gonna say, she's fine. You'll be fine.
You can get a sky pod which plugs into an
hd M I put on your TV to watch sky
Wire via Wi Fi. You don't need a dish. No,
I think that woman's got a dish, but she doesn't
watch Sky. She hasn't got a TV aerial. Jesus, the
sky dishes your TV aerieal A lot of our people

(01:55:57):
want to get a lot of us want to get
rid of Sky, but we we need it for our
TV viewing on Free to Wear. Now, I'm going to
be to you. I'm not watching any TV. Actually, I'm
just getting up in gardening, so I'm not seeing much.
Actually I'm missing out on TV. I still don't watch
that show begins with S. They all watch. I still
haven't watched that. No, the other one, No, the one

(01:56:29):
that they're all watching. No, it begins with S. You
know they're all mad about it. It's a second series.
Oh No, the Succession's finished. It's like sustenance or something.

(01:56:49):
I don't even know what format it's on because it's
quite dark about the office they're all watching. It's like
it's three syllable. It's like succession, but it's not that.

Speaker 15 (01:57:07):
You know what it is.

Speaker 3 (01:57:11):
Successions finished, succession. The one about like the moodog's right, severance.
See this similar word, isn't it severance? But were you
thinking severance?

Speaker 4 (01:57:23):
Were you?

Speaker 20 (01:57:24):
Yeah?

Speaker 3 (01:57:25):
Well, yeah, yeah, that's right. So we're severance. Then Apple TV?
Where do I get that? Okay, I think we've got Hulu.
Who knows what we've got severance? Yeah? I was going
mad there for I don't know how it's going to

(01:57:46):
come up with that word, because googling v TV series
to start with s second TV series begins with this soap,
so awkward, so cosmos. I don't know. I didn't every
well with that. What TV shows up with it? It
is Stepford and Sons, Sepphire and Steel. It wasn't good
for me, Seinfeld.

Speaker 1 (01:58:09):
For more from Marcus Slash Nights, listen live to News
talkst B from eight pm weekdays, or follow the podcast
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