Full Show Podcast: 08 October 2024

Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
The newsmakers and the personalities of the big names. Talk to
Mike Costing breakfast with the Jaguar f base come from
a different class.

Speaker 2 (00:10):
News talk said, been can go ahead of the Navy
on his insurance? Whose shipping is clean up? Why are
some bank still stress testing at just under nine percent
of the primement of store and everything? From Nicole the
Key to underwriting house building? Nick Bryant gives us his
reader or were the months to go? On the US vote?
Catherine Field is in France. Rob Liddle is in the
UK for US tasking Welcome to Tuesday seven past six.

(00:31):
So I guess the first thing to say about marking
the one year anniversary of the Hamas attack is why
do we always mark one year, especially when it comes
to terror or wars? I mean, what's the difference one year,
one month, three years? Does it make it any better
or worse? More or less significant? So observations I've made
well won. I think I was right when the war
broke out, and given I said at the time, there
is no difference to the last or the one before,
or the one before or the one before. The hate

(00:53):
hasn't changed the view and the outlook hasn't changed. The
sides haven't changed. I do note our bandwidth his tested.
The original war Ukraine is not mentioned anywhere near the
way it used to be. The Middle East has taken precedence.
We seem incapable. All the editors who put together the
coverage seem to think we're incapable of more than one war. Apparently,
the media as always a bias towards the Palestinians as

(01:15):
they have always been, which is not to side, of course,
with Israel at all. It's just to point out the
go to stance the media has always taken to is
to walk through rubble or show some homeless or some
blood or some pleading doctors. Doesn't mean their plight isn't
real or urgent. It's just very one sided. Another observation,
we seem to have been lucky here. Some of the
angst and the anger that the Australians for example, have

(01:35):
scene hasn't arrived here. Yes, we've had the old protest,
but not really in large numbers, and you never really
got the sense it was growing in spirit. It seems
to have been the same old Pickacau's rabble. The UN
has failed, as it always does gueterists saying it must
stop now really has never been, nor is it now
any effective means of diplomacy. Anthony Blincoln deserves a medal.

(01:56):
You can't claim he hasn't worked as butt off trying
to sort it all out. So given its presidential year
in America, and given it's not just Israel v. Hamas
but Israel v Hesbala, and it's in Lebanon and it's
in Iran, now you can probably point a figure towards
the White House and say Biden's failed. The problem today
is the problem it's always been. Of course, was Nitnyah
who justified to respond, Yes, was he ever going to

(02:18):
get rid of Hamas or his Balabo? No? Was he
ever going to stop Iran wanting Israel wiped off the map? No?
Will this come to an end eventually? Yes? How I
don't know. But this is indistinguishable from every other time
this lot go at each other. So marking twelve months
means nothing.

Speaker 1 (02:36):
Who news of the world in ninety seconds.

Speaker 2 (02:40):
Y's October seventh and many parts of the world, so
they remember.

Speaker 3 (02:43):
You change for every as well.

Speaker 4 (02:47):
We want to live in peace with everybody, but we
cannot live when there is an organization like Hamas and Physibla.

Speaker 5 (02:56):
Total collapse and what we thought it was very safe.

Speaker 2 (03:00):
Israel's president, the world has to realize and understand that
in order to change the course of history and bring
peace into a better future to the region.

Speaker 6 (03:08):
It must support Israel and its battle against its enemies.

Speaker 2 (03:12):
Britain's Prime minister fifteen British citizens for brutally slain that day.
Another has since died in captivity. Our thoughts today are
with the Jewish people around the world, the Jewish community
here in the United Kingdom, Britten's former Prime minister.

Speaker 7 (03:30):
We should not forget the base cause of all these events,
Iran's refusal to accept Israel's right to exist and its
desire to destabilize the region through arming and funding its
terrorist proxies Hamas, has Bila and the Hooties.

Speaker 2 (03:45):
Questions, of course, as to what has been achieved in
whether Israel is any more or secure.

Speaker 6 (03:49):
Even if we shall kill all Hamas activists and all
the political leaders, and we shall destroy all the military installations.
On the day after two Politinian children that lost their families,
we'll try to to get a knife and to kid
his ali.

Speaker 2 (04:05):
Then Stateside Advance knows who he blames.

Speaker 8 (04:07):
What we've seen from the current administration is a lot
of wavering, a lot of waffling, and I think because
of that, it's prolonged the war. It's gotten a lot
of people, civilians on the Palestinian and the Israeli side,
unnecessarily killed, and it's made it harder to achieve any
real peace in the Middle East.

Speaker 2 (04:22):
Finally, thirty one year old treasure hunt in France finally
come to a need sly. In fact, in nineteen ninety
three we had a book of riddles. It was published
on the trail of the Golden Owl. It had eleven
puzzles and a hidden twelfth one. The idea was to
find the location of an owl token that you could
then exchange for a golden owl three kgs of gold,
seven kgs of silver and diamonds on its face. Now,

(04:43):
the more than two hundred thousand hours have been told
that someone found a golden ol countermark last night and
all of that, all that's left now is for the
person to handle them and receive their golden own. That
golden owl is worth about two hundred and seventy thousand dollars,
and that is news of the world. In ninety seconds.
They've done a deal. The more leaves in Indiana. This
is interesting because the relationship between India and the Maldives

(05:03):
is a fascinating one. You probably should look up sometime
when you're a little bit bored. But anyway, they've agreed
to extend hundreds of millions of dollars. It's all about
influence in that particular part of the world, and the
Maldives is troubled financially despite the fact that to Meca
for tourists of course, So they've cut a deal. The
Maldes president, he's had the red carpet rolled out. He's
gone to see Moody. They've had a chat. Hundreds of
millions of dollars are exchanging hands as we speak in

(05:23):
the Maldives of state financially for now. Twelve Pars six.

Speaker 1 (05:29):
The Mic Asking Breakfast Full Show podcast on iHeartRadio powered
by News Talks EV.

Speaker 2 (05:36):
Tell you what Ireland's got us here of troubles this morning,
We've got the shin Fane in dreadful trouble over a
person who turned out to be a sexual offender. I'll
work you through that later, but we also got an
unfolding honey trap plot that involves an Irish politician as
yet unnamed and a Russian spy. So more shortly fifteen
Pars six JM by Wealth Andrew Keller Her, Good morning, Mike,

(06:00):
Very glad you've raised this because I don't know that
it's got enough coverage in this particular part of the world.
This stimulus that's going on in China, I don't know.
Is it good. I mean in the sense it's been
spectacular in numbers, but I mean is this the way
we want to run the world economy?

Speaker 3 (06:16):
Well, I mean it's interesting, and as you're right, it
probably hasn't got enough coverage because this is, after all,
our largest trading partners. So essentially, look what we're doing
here is I'm checking in with markets following some pretty
major developments over the last week.

Speaker 2 (06:29):
And so yeah, China.

Speaker 3 (06:30):
You've had this stunning, stunning rally in Chinese share markets,
the timing of which was all sort of quite notable
because you've got this turbo charged move and then the
share markets shut down, but it keeps back into trading
this week with potential for another boost. So you had
this monetary policy stimulus package now that was announced by
People's Bank of China. At the end of September, we

(06:51):
write a great, big booster sentiment and directly impacted on
share markets and your right mic.

Speaker 5 (06:57):
The effect was huge.

Speaker 3 (06:58):
Shanghai Compson index has gained twenty percent since the middle
of September. Now there are other indexes that follow the
Chinese markets, they have gained even more than that. And
this has followed what was a pretty extended period of
underperformance to the Chinese share market, you know, versus other
share markets around the world. But then we had these
celebrations connected with China National Day which shut trading down

(07:20):
and for China National Day that shut the market down
for over a week. As say, it all kicks back
in today, but in what seems to be very fortuitous timing,
at ten am in Chinese time zone, China's top economic
planner is going to hold a press conference. This is
the National Development and Reform Commission, and it doesn't look
like any ordinary press conference because they've got i think

(07:41):
five of the most senior members of the commission fronting,
including the chairman. Now, the press conference is addressing policies
aimed at boosting growth. So speculation is now swirling that
this conference will announce further stimulus measures. It's a big
deal because you're potentially going to get fiscal support to
match the monetary policy moved announced earlier.

Speaker 2 (08:02):
So I mean, just looking at that.

Speaker 3 (08:04):
Share market movement, Mike, You're right, the big questions whether
it's sustainable, whether or not these stimulus measures announced today
will actually stimulate economic activity because they're han't a good
crack at it. And obviously this has potential implication for US.
There our biggest trading partner, and I think one analyst
comments sort of pointed this out and said, the success
of the stimulus measures will have direct, direct implications for

(08:28):
nations that have close trading links with China, and that
is US.

Speaker 2 (08:32):
It's going to be fascinating. So then we come to
the American job market. How did that play through?

Speaker 3 (08:36):
Well, so this is used non fun payrolls and it
was absolutely blowout, much stronger than expected.

Speaker 2 (08:41):
So that was Friday and out at our time.

Speaker 3 (08:42):
It's reverberating right around the world because all the world
has got back trading now and had a chance to
react to it. So it's given markets a decent short
term shunt. It's moving markets around. So let's look at currencies.
First of all, so we're seeing an impact on the
New Zealand dollar. Why well, it's boosting the US dollar,
so stronger UIs dollar week in New Zealand dollar, and
big dollar always trumps little dollar. So it's been quite

(09:05):
a volatile period for the key. We'll go back to
late July. It fell to below fifty nine cents, and then.

Speaker 2 (09:11):
The little flightless bird clawed its way back up.

Speaker 3 (09:13):
To almost sixty four cents. That's quite a big move,
fifty nine cents to sixty four pretty decent. But now
you've got expectations of quicker falls in our interest rates
and a slower path projected for US interest rate cuts,
so we're seeing a pretty swift reversal. The New Zealand
dollar has fallen quite slightly this morning when I checked,
sixty one to twenty one. Good for exporters, But if

(09:36):
you're worried about what's happening right now in the in
the Middle East, a sustained spike in the oil price
a week in New Zealand dollar exacerbates the impact of
this price hepe because the lower New Zealand dollar means
imported oil related products costs more because they are priced
in US dollars.

Speaker 2 (09:54):
So that's the problem for your wallet.

Speaker 3 (09:56):
But the rbn Z, if you worry about the inflation impact,
they'll probably look through that sort of short term price
like then it's impacted on interest rates as well. That
power supports has shunted up wholesale rates. Our wholesale rates
have been falling since about April. Our longer term rates
do have a reasonably strong correlation to US interest rates,
and US interest rates have done, for the time being,
a very swift recalibration of expectations of a fifty basis

(10:20):
point cut of the next FED meeting that's in early November.
They've pulled that back to twenty five basis points. So
that's pushed up interestrate for US treasuries ten years. They're
above four percent now, we haven't seen that since late July.

Speaker 2 (10:31):
Really, that's fascinating. Time is not right. I give us
the numbers.

Speaker 3 (10:35):
So the US share makes under a bit of pressure,
not not a lot, but the Dow Jones down half
percent four to two one three two, that's two hundred
and twenty point four, the S and P five hundred,
it's down point three eight as we look at it now,
five seven two nine and then Nasdaq is down point
four of a percent seventy two points eighteen thousand and
sixty five overnight. The fort SEE one hundred gained zero

(10:55):
point two eight of a percent eight three oh three.
The Nickey is up one point eight percent thirty nine thousand,
three hundred and thirty three Shangha comps.

Speaker 2 (11:03):
It hasn't traded yet, so.

Speaker 5 (11:04):
We'll skip right past that.

Speaker 3 (11:06):
The ASX two hundred YESA gained two point six eight
percent eight two oh five. The NZCX fifty lost twenty
three points to twelve thousand, five hundred and ninety six
Kimi dollar as I said, point six one two one
against the US, point nine oh five eight against the ossie,
point five five seven six euro, point four to six
seven eight against the pound, ninety points six eight. Japanese

(11:27):
en gold is still hanging in there and holding up
quite strong. Two thousand, six hundred and forty five US
dollars and Brent crude back over the eighty dollar mark
eighty dollars and seventy two cents, So I'll keep an
eye on that.

Speaker 2 (11:38):
Okye, we go, Well, we'll see you tomorrow. Andrew callaher
jomowealth dot co dot m Z Steve Fox Coln. They're
out of Taiwan. They make a lot of iPhones anyway,
The point is they're making money like there is no tomorrow,
which all AI generated. Their revenue for the quarter was
fifty seven billion fifty seven point three total revenue for
September and loan. By the way, because everyone's getting excited
about Christmas, demand for iPhones goes up blah blah blah,

(12:00):
so the revenue for September a loan was almost up
eleven percent. Peak season is coming, so the second half
of the year looks fairly good for them, although I
am noting interestingly enough a lot of commentary starting to
bubble around the place that AI is not what they
made it out to be. So it's the same old story.
Get a trend, get excited, then realize whoops might have
overregged that one. Six twenty one Here at Newstalk ZEDBYO.

Speaker 1 (12:24):
The Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show podcast on iHeartRadio powered
by News Talk.

Speaker 2 (12:29):
ZB Yeah, do blay trouble in Ireland. Michelle O'Neil, who's
the head of shin Faine. She's going to have to
answer questions in the National Island Assembly. So anyway, they've
got this guy called mcmonical. He wanders off and he's
been a member of shin Faine and part of the
parliamentary system. He wanders off to get a job at
the British Heart Foundation. This was last year after references

(12:51):
and he got employed because the references given by former
colleagues in shin Faine did not raise concerns about his
suitability for employment. Is a suitability issue, Well, he's a
sex offender and they might have wanted to have raised that.
So that's problem number one, and that's before we get
to the Russians. More shortly, Sex twenty five.

Speaker 1 (13:09):
Trending now with chemist Wells keeping Kiwi's healthy.

Speaker 9 (13:13):
All year out.

Speaker 2 (13:14):
That ruffle feathers in the bird community. You see what
I did. They're the American Ornithological Society. They're looking to
drop bird names that honor people, and they're going to
have a vote at the Society's annual meeting in Colorado.
Birds like the Backman sparrow, the Scott's oreole, the towns
Ends warbler, they're going to potentially get changed to new
names that would identify a feature of the bird instead
of being named after Confederate offices or people who had slaves.

(13:36):
This bloke is from the society.

Speaker 10 (13:39):
We can either cheap living with those awful legacy histories,
or we can do something to change them, and at
the same time be giving these birds names that are
actually useful to people. Like if you say to somebody, oh,
I want to see a Wilson's warbler, nobody knows what
you're talking about. But if you say to somebody who
does know birds, oh, I want to see a black
capped warbler, you at least know you're looking for a

(14:00):
warbler with the black cap. And so it's a really
keis of genocide. And this guy has a bird named
after him that every time an indigenous birder says the
guy's the bird's name and the bird has nothing to
do with the guy, they've got to put that man's name.

Speaker 5 (14:14):
In his nut.

Speaker 2 (14:14):
That guy's finn at parties. He makes a lot of
sense to me. Biggest birding controversies controversy since they debated
whether you had to actually see a bird. You remember
this one, whether you just had to see a bird
or hear it in order to add it to your
birding list. I run on my birding list, it's just audio.
I don't need to see the bird myself. I'm happy

(14:35):
to hear it and know that I've heard it, and
I don't need to prove anything to do anything.

Speaker 11 (14:39):
Quite like when you think what's making that noise and
then you go outside and you see the bird that
sitting on the top of the.

Speaker 2 (14:44):
I've got pheasants at my place and I go often,
I'll stand on the lawn and I'll hear, and I'll
go phasn't and Katie doesn't go. I don't think, so
let's go.

Speaker 5 (14:55):
Look.

Speaker 2 (14:55):
She never says that I just go fissant, and it's
just broadly accepted that it was indeed a fisant. It
was or not, but fortunately it was because I know
my birds. News for you in a couple of moments,
then stress testing at Banks, Why is it still so high?

Speaker 1 (15:10):
The Breakfast Show You Can Trust, the Mic Hosking Breakfast
with Bailey's real Estate, your local experts across residential, commercial
and rural news.

Speaker 2 (15:19):
Togs Head been Nobel Prize Week. You know I love
Nobel Prize Week. Tomorrow it's physics, then chemistry, literature and peace.
Today it is medicine or physiology and medicine. Are The
winners are US scientists Victor Ambrose and Gary Rubkin. What
did they discover? They discovered micro RNA molecule that governs
house sells and bodies function. One of them Ambrose, he's

(15:39):
a professor of natural science at the University of Massachusetts
Medical School and Rothkin is a professor of genetics at Harvard.
They reveal an entirely new dimension to gene regulation. So
they are honored by the Nobel Committee.

Speaker 11 (15:52):
Do we forget out how to make it bluetooth come
out of ourself with heav the vaccine?

Speaker 1 (15:56):
No?

Speaker 2 (15:56):
I think that's that's Thursdays right, nounce, Okay, it doesn't
feel shortly meantime, questions issermaly around the bank's designed to
get money into the market. Despite the fact interest rates
are falling, some banks are still apparently stress testing at
a shade under nine percent now. A loan market mortgage
advisor Bruce Patten's with us on this. Bruce, very good

(16:16):
morning to you.

Speaker 12 (16:18):
Good morning Mike.

Speaker 2 (16:19):
How wide spreads that at just under nine percent.

Speaker 12 (16:23):
They're starting to drop just some of them are waiting
at the moment. I mean, you need to understand the
reason the banks introduced these test rates in the first
place was to try to prove to the Reserve Bank
that they didn't need to introduce DTIs, and now that
they have, the banks really could review some.

Speaker 2 (16:38):
Of this exactly. I see, I'm getting a mixed message.
I thought the banks were into getting money into the market,
hence you had a bit of competition and the interest
rates were falling. And if that's the case, how then
do you want to Is it just safety or they're
being overly cautious.

Speaker 12 (16:53):
Well, I think they've been overly cautious at the moment,
but with the cost of living being so high, they're
just really conscious that it's it's extremely expensive for people
all around. It isn't just about mortgages anymore. It's everything
is costing more, insurances, you know, you've seen it all.
So until those inflation rates get back to normal, I
think they're just going to be cautious. They're trying to

(17:15):
act below the dtiyes. So at the moment you can't
actually even get to the level that the Reserve Bank
is set with like a six times income. You can
get that high with the test rights. So I think
it'll balance out as we see these interest rates start
to drop, and I think tomorrow's announcement will be very
key in seeing some of those test rates come from.

Speaker 2 (17:33):
Well, I was going to say, if they go fifty points,
I mean, you can't possibly still stress test just underlying,
can you.

Speaker 13 (17:40):
That's right.

Speaker 12 (17:40):
So I think you'll see a big move once the
Reserve Bank signals it's intentions. And you know, if they
don't go fifty, I think they'll be they'll be a
bit of anarchy out there about it.

Speaker 2 (17:50):
Well, I reckon, and what's the demand for money? Like,
did the first move make a material difference in your
view or not?

Speaker 13 (17:58):
Absolutely?

Speaker 12 (17:58):
And we've seen it and you've talked about it this morning. Already,
open homes are busier. There's definitely a better feeling out there.
So there's moll people out and about. So it's all
going to flow through, and it's just really a timing
thing about how long it'll be before they bring these down.
They're not that far away. You can borrow about five
and a half times your income on average at the moment.

(18:19):
It's going to stop at six, So the test rates
become irrelevant once the interest rates drop.

Speaker 2 (18:23):
Anyway, Yeah, exactly, with all the rules that we've got
you d to you guys, I mean, are they working?
I mean, I've forgotten what they were trying to achieve
at the end of the day. So many bloody rules
to go through now, I mean, is it all sort
of working?

Speaker 12 (18:36):
I think so. I think the fact is the DTO
is a very blunt instrument, and they're probably not the
way we should have gone. But it was a reaction
to the fact that the Reserve bank rates get to
two percent if people could borrow ten times their income.
And it's their reaction to that to say, GF rates
get down again to say four four and a half.
If we were lucky enough to sit them there. I

(18:56):
don't think we will. But if we were and you
could still borrow a times your income, then that's a problem.
So it's a reaction to something that's in the past.
They could have fixed it long ago. They had the
ability to do teeth duties when ranked for that loan,
they chose not to.

Speaker 2 (19:11):
It's almost as though Adrian cocked it up. Bruce preciated
Bruce Patten, who's the loan market mortgage advisor with us
this morning. Are you remember what I said at the time,
nineteen minutes away from seven Adrian or on the program.
I said, why are you giving the banks all the
money at no percent and then telling not telling them
because you know where the money's going. You know where
the money's going. It's going into the housing market. And
he said, and I distinctly remember, well, it's not really

(19:31):
my problem, is it. Well, yes it was, Adrian, you
just didn't realize it at the time. By the way,
pol Out As regards the seventh of October, fifty nine
percent this is an Australia fifty nine percent of voters
opposed marches. Forty five percent say it's made Australia less safe.
This is the war, which is up from thirty six percent.
Interesting the fifty nine percent on the marches, because they
had some marches yesterday, they went to court the week before.

(19:53):
There was some real anks. They passed without real upset,
but there's been some real anks around some of the
protests Andustralia. Fifty one percent of voter to say Australia
should not voice in principal support for either Israel or Gaza.
Strongest support for Israel among those remaining voters twenty three
percent in favor of voicing and principal support for Israel
only twelve percent. For Gaza, thirty two percent say there

(20:14):
was an increase in anti Semitism and fourteen percent say
there was more Islamophobia. Speaking of Poults as a very
good one about the amount of anti Semitic behavior and
the states that will come to later in the program
eighteen to two the.

Speaker 1 (20:28):
Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show podcast on iHeartRadio powered by.

Speaker 2 (20:32):
Newstalksp Starting to deal with Milton and Florida. They're still
mopping up from Helene. Forty seven point five billion. They've
at last put a number on at forty seven point
Milton's five Category five. Helen was four, but it swept
through Florida, North Carolina, South Carolina and Georgia. And of
course you've got massive insurance problems in that particular part
of the world. So the number they put on that
forty seven point five billion dollars in loss of property

(20:56):
somewhere between twenty and thirty billion on uninsure flood losses. So,
as Richard said yesterday, you don't recover from that six forty.

Speaker 1 (21:06):
Five international correspondence with ends and eye insurance. Peace of
mind for New Zealand business is brance.

Speaker 2 (21:12):
Did catron Field. Very good morning to you. Good morning mane.
Well I was away last week and you were away
the week before and you went somewhere. Where'd you go?
And was it fun?

Speaker 14 (21:20):
Oh, it's lots of fun. I went to peninsula off
the west coast of France called Kibon and it was fabulous.

Speaker 2 (21:27):
Good on you. And did you get a tan or
did you drink a lot? Or did you cause any
scandal or what happened there?

Speaker 14 (21:32):
The noose scandals?

Speaker 5 (21:34):
Like?

Speaker 14 (21:35):
No, it's a lovely peninsula. You know that one side
of it goes out towards Atlantic, another goes into Bay,
so you have two very distinct sides of the peninsula.
On one side that's very sheltered. One of it's most
famous plants there is something called the pahuta kawa.

Speaker 2 (21:51):
Stop it.

Speaker 14 (21:53):
I can send you photos.

Speaker 2 (21:54):
And when do you and when you see the pahota
kawa bloom in that part of the world early, does
that mean a good summer or is it reversed like
the sink goes round the other one and it means
a good winter At No.

Speaker 14 (22:07):
We weren't just notice that it blooms all year round
because it's got such a micro climate.

Speaker 5 (22:11):
There.

Speaker 14 (22:11):
Wow, and everyone's really impressed that I know the name too,
so they said, oh, wow, she knows what she's talking about.

Speaker 2 (22:17):
Well exactly, and that's why you're on the program cast
because you know what you're talking about.

Speaker 13 (22:21):
Right.

Speaker 2 (22:21):
Get me to NATO and they got a new head,
mister Rutter of course, and mister Fico still causing the problem.
And this is Ukraine, so what do they do?

Speaker 14 (22:29):
Oh enormous prot me a new NATO sexty general been
in the job what seven days or really having problems.
It was supposed to be the great start to his
leadership of NATO with he went to Ukraine last week,
he spectors Zelenski and we're all meant to be looking
forward to the end of this week make for that
big summit that's happening in Germany. Biden Macron shorts. Everyone's

(22:52):
going to be there, and it was meant to be
the time when NATO hands Ukraine if you're like a
concrete pathway to integration and possible membership of NATO. But
it hasn't really worked out. We've now got Fico in
in Slovakia as well as the Hungarians saying pretty much

(23:12):
not in our lifetime that NATO membership will not be
available for Ukraine. So you're a lot of fudging around
over this next couple of days. Might because Zelenski is
essentially going to come to Germany at the end of
this week with what he calls is a victory plan.
He wants his victory plan endorsed by NATO. He also

(23:33):
wants to reinforce that idea that they need to be
part of Western Security Alliance. But he also needs more resources.
This war has now been going on since February twenty
twenty two. He needs NATO to step up, just at
a time when NATO's trying to keep its own members
on site exactly now.

Speaker 2 (23:53):
Listen, I made an observation on the program earlier on
this morning. I'd be interested to know and how it's
covered in your part of the world. We don't get
coverage of Ukraine the way we used to, because my
argument is the people who put the news together these
days think we don't have the bandwidth the deal with
two wars at once. So we're very much dominated by
the Middle East at the moment. Is it the same
in Europe? Will not say, pretty.

Speaker 14 (24:12):
Much dominated by the Middle East, but also still a
lot about Ukraine mainly because of just everything that flows
from Ukraine. Or you've got the migration, you've got the
strain on the economy, you've got so many strains, you've
got it always happening. And you know, we are very
close to Ukraine, as it's not that far away, so
it's still un alvels.

Speaker 1 (24:34):
Plus you still have.

Speaker 14 (24:35):
A lot of Ukrainian refugees who live in France, who
live in Europe, and they lead this very strange existence, mate,
because you can actually go back to Ukraine and you
see people who go back for holidays, go back and
see their family in Kiev and then come back, and
buses leave and they take people. And if you want
to send parcels to relatives in Ukraine, you take it
down to the bus station, put on the bus and

(24:57):
they drop it off in Levev or Kiev. So it's
something that's always there, even though it might not always
be number one on the news bullets. And of an evening, very.

Speaker 2 (25:06):
Interesting us to talk to Catherine and go, well, we'll
catch up soon, Catherine Field and France, and of course
western side of the country is largely untouched, isn't it.
Just quickly on Ireland because I've got to so this
honey trap thing, here's the important part about it. So
it's been revealed that an Irish MP was hooked up
by a Russian during the Brixit talks, and the Irish

(25:28):
MP promised to do a whole bunch of inferious stuff,
a lot of which he had no right to be
able to say, not only legally, but he had no
real connection with the bricks At talks anyway, and he
was going to basically cause trouble. This has become public.
The Prime Minister an Ireland's guy called Harris, Simon Harris.
They asked him yesterday do you know who this person is?
And all he could say was, you know, the fact

(25:48):
that Russia's trying to interfere is of no surprise to anybody.
But the important part is this guy still in the Parliament.
So we don't know who he is, and we don't
know what he's doing there, and we don't know what
he promised or what he did he didn't do, and
how nefarious the whole thing's got so between the shin
Fein and the Prime Minister, Ireland has got itself in
a fair amount of pop It's nine minutes away from seven.

Speaker 1 (26:12):
On My cost Breakfast with the Jaguar f Base News
Dogs FV.

Speaker 2 (26:16):
What is it with labor governments? Elban easy first term government,
every chance of losing next year and Britain's got the
same problem. One hundred days and they're doing a reset
literally as we speak, they are resetting their government's agenda.
Are one hundred days in poll out this morning on
Starmer he now sits at minus thirty three. Rushi they
thought was bad at minus twenty six Starmers now minus

(26:38):
thirty three, which is a drop of forty four points
since he won the election. So what they're looking at
now They've got the budget coming up and that's a
disaster as well. Value added tax on private school fees.
They're rethinking that because they don't think that they can
get it implemented in time. They're reconsidering a planned overhaul
of the tax regime for non doms that's the foreigners,

(27:00):
because all the non doms are going to leave the
country and they don't even think they'll get the money
they thought they were going to get the first place. Also,
proposals to close loophole on carried interest, that sort of
private equhen he may don't worry about that. But anyway,
that's been looked at again because Treasury has had a
look at that and they say that could end up
costing the chancell of money instead of actually saving money.

(27:20):
So all of this was part of a big promise.
They were going to raise about nine billion dollars out
of all of this, and then they were going to
hire six and a half thousand new teachers, forty thousand
more operations scans and appointments in eight and a half
thousand new mental health staff. But given the getting none
of that, and they've been accepting freebies from Lord R.
Lee in the form of suits and glasses, things have

(27:41):
gone a bit pear shaped, five away from seven.

Speaker 1 (27:44):
While the ins and the outs, it's the farz with
business favor. Take your business productivity to the next.

Speaker 2 (27:50):
Level, you know, Rod with us after thirty this morning,
news from the Employment Relations Authority and NIB the Workplace
Well Being Survey. I love NIB. I've got to come
back to that because I had some troubles with NIB
the other day. Anyway, what have we got for their survey?
Sixty seven percent of us are concerned about personal finance.
That's up from fifty one percent from a couple of
years ago. A lot of us worried. Eighty three percent
of us worried about the state of the economy, up

(28:11):
from seventy nine percent. No wonder. Fifty percent of us
worried about the ability to serve us our current level
of personal debt. That's up from thirty nine. Forty four
percent of us are worried about job security. That's up
from thirty three. When it comes to jobs and looking
for something new, seventeen percent of us are looking for
a second job.

Speaker 5 (28:27):
Ha ha ha that.

Speaker 2 (28:28):
Old, that old don't turn up Monday. And lazy resigning
or whatever the hell that particular trend that's over, isn't it.
When it comes to our mental and physical strain, what
are we were stressed? Oh my god, we're stressed forty
nine percent more stress. Forty nine percent of us are
more stressed. Forty three percent of us are having troubled sleeping.
I had trouble sleeping last night, but I think it
was the heat because I'm not remotely and we've got

(28:49):
lovely new linen sheets, and can I make a personal
recommendation to you, I've gone from cotton to linen and
there is nothing more curious than linen sheeting. Absolutely delightful.

Speaker 11 (29:03):
So not that you were different your pheasants outside and
your I've got my.

Speaker 2 (29:07):
Peasants outside and I've gotten the linen sheeting inside. Not
that it helped me sleep, but I think that's down
to the heat.

Speaker 11 (29:12):
And the dog went out and backed at something.

Speaker 2 (29:14):
There's a bit of that. Thirty eight percent of anxiety,
thirty eight percent of anxiety, thirty percent of feelings of worthlessness.
Seventy five percent, though, let me give you some good news.
Seventy five percent do say we are satisfied at work.
There you go. Three quarters of us are satisfied at work,
so why would you want to quit your satisfied sexty
you get some linen sheets, that'll go to eighty two.
If you sleep in linen sheets, you'll be loving your work.

(29:36):
Sixty one percent say they're unlikely to leave because we
value stability. Right now, that's just another way of saying
where shit's skicking of getting sent and we won't fight
another job. That's what that's about.

Speaker 9 (29:48):
Now.

Speaker 2 (29:49):
You could, of course be the head of the navy,
so fortunately you're not. But Garners and he's with us.

Speaker 1 (29:55):
Shortly used bold the mic asking breakfast with al Vida,
Retirement Communities, Life Your Way News.

Speaker 2 (30:06):
Togsad be Wed seven past seven, So we have more
detail on our insurance question we raised with the Defense
Ministry yesterday, the monument that we had third party which
will to some degree help cover the clean up costs apparently,
so not exactly replacement insurance. So where are we at
the tub of maybe rare. Admiral Garren Golding is with us.
Very good morning to you.

Speaker 4 (30:23):
Yeah, good morning, Mike.

Speaker 2 (30:24):
Just from a personal point of view, when you got
the news, could you believe what was happening?

Speaker 4 (30:28):
It's pretty devastating news. It's a bad day in our navy,
but one that's not going to define us.

Speaker 2 (30:35):
But literally when the phone rang, which I assume that
you must have thought what I mean, you can never
have thought that you would ever hear those words.

Speaker 4 (30:45):
Look, well, when I got the phone, it was all
about priority as the safety and well being off the crew.
That was at the forefront of my mind, fair enough,
and being there last night when they arrived back and
he's yelling with the Prime Minister and Minister's pink and Collins.
It was to be there and present to welcome them
back to event quite through, quite an ordeal.

Speaker 2 (31:05):
Right as far as the dive is, the assessment, the
time frame, the job, the cost, where are we at
with that?

Speaker 4 (31:11):
So at first light this morning, subject to favorable whether
the diver is going to head out to the site.
They've got a remotely operated vehicle which they'll send down
as well as do a number of dives. Their primary
purposes to assess the depth, the condition of the ship
and any presence of oil coming out of the vessel.

Speaker 2 (31:32):
Beyond that, you've got no idea as to cost, time frame,
any of that.

Speaker 4 (31:37):
No, the key focus for us is supporting the small
and government, so we've got a number of lines of effort.
As I mentioned, the diving will be conducted. Also have
maritime New Zealand experts with the light spilkit and some
environmental wildlife experts. They will be supporting the government authorities
with the cleanup and spill activities. We also got a

(32:00):
real navy ship, Tamar, which is nearby. They have a
spilkit on board. Unfortunately they have been unable to deploy
that due to the weather, but hopefully if the weather permits,
they'll get that out today and then we've got a
heavy spilkit from Maritime New Zealand that we're loading onto
Canbury and that will deploy tomorrow.

Speaker 2 (32:16):
Who makes decisions? Are you in charge or are the
Simons in charge?

Speaker 4 (32:21):
It's a Samoan lead. We will provide support to them
and it's a cross agency response from a New Zealand perspective.

Speaker 2 (32:30):
You got any clues as to what went wrong, that's.

Speaker 4 (32:34):
The important part of it is not to do any speculation.
So we've got a Court of Inquiry team that we
are standing up. We're just close to finalizing that composition
and the terms of reference, making sure that the inquiry
covers the lead up, the event itself and also posts
so we can learn the lessons and not a repeat

(32:55):
event like this.

Speaker 2 (32:56):
But what's the vibe? I mean, you must have a
hunt as to or you must have heard as to
what they think happened.

Speaker 4 (33:04):
Again, my speculating is not what we want to do.
We need to understand the facts and that's the whole
reason we're setting up the Court of Inquiry and they
will do a number of interviews get to the bottom
of what went on and in time we'll release that.

Speaker 2 (33:20):
What's your role with the Minister in an assessment of
a replacement. Do you have any say at all or not?

Speaker 4 (33:25):
Really, that's up to the government to decide that as
part of our defense capability plan, and that is being
presented to them in the coming months.

Speaker 2 (33:35):
All right, I appreciate time very much. Garren Golding, who
is a rear admiral head of the Navy. Ten minutes
past seven Principles Bill gets another outing today. David Tumill's
accepted a request from NATI Tower to debate that the
invitation came from the EE leader Helmet Modlika a couple
of months ago. The event's going to be screamed tonight.
The ACT leader, David Seymour is with us. David, very
good morning to you.

Speaker 15 (33:55):
Good morning mate.

Speaker 2 (33:56):
Is it a proper debate with rules of engagement in
the time framers? It are free for all.

Speaker 15 (34:01):
Well, if you've ever watched the Working Group podcast, they
have four people. Two are kind of hosts, Martin Bradbury,
the former radio people. God yeah, but look they've also
got Damian Grant, who I'm sure you're.

Speaker 13 (34:17):
Yeah. Yeah.

Speaker 15 (34:18):
So look, it's it's a bit free flowing to be there,
but I think it's actually a really good format because
it allows people to make their points. It's a bit
of fun and it sounds like it's going to be
similar casts by indied me. The Herald's website are in
z on Sky eighty three and just about everyone who's
got anything kind of vaguely digital tonight.

Speaker 2 (34:39):
You should have got David Higgins involved and how to
pay for you.

Speaker 15 (34:42):
Well, actually, if I'd thought about that, if this one
goes well, and see if we can capitalize, does.

Speaker 2 (34:48):
The Twain ever meet here? I mean, it's such rightly
or wrongly, whatever side you're on, it's such an angsty
debate now, isn't it.

Speaker 5 (34:56):
I don't.

Speaker 15 (34:56):
I think that's true. But the people that have been
making the most noise are not the people that you want.
And that's why I accepted a debate with Helmut that
I've met in quite a few times, had dinner a
few times. There are actually reasonable thinking people who are
just saying, look, you know, we need to figure out
how to make this country work. And of course, you know,

(35:17):
Helmet has some different views to me in some sense,
but I just believe it has to come back to
equal rights for all New Zealanders and the treaty provides
for that. So I think It's going to be a
good discussion, and I think it'll be a model for
what can happen with us Treaty Principles Bill, because ultimately
there are people that want it to be all bad
and we can't have an opinion and we shouldn't be

(35:38):
able to say anything because we're not experts. But I
actually think that New Zealand needs to mature a little
bit to the point where ordinary people can have an
opinion about their country's constitutional future.

Speaker 2 (35:48):
It'll be nice. Well go well Ton, I appreciate it.
David Seymore, the act leader with us. This morning twelve
and it is past seven, I get comment on the
PvdA conference yesterday. Please tell me you're joking. I wasn't
joking that it was so weird. If you missed it,
go back online and look it up. It was extraordinary morning.
MIKEE what brand of linen sheet? Good question, no doubt.
Kate brought them correct, So can you please check with

(36:10):
her and let us know. Are they the French linen
from Foxtrot? Mike, We have recently changed from cotton to linen.
We just love them. Tell them. I'm here to tell you.
Once you go, never come back. Thirteen past the.

Speaker 1 (36:26):
Mike Asking Breakfast Full Show podcast on iHeartRadio, Howard By
News talks, that'd be.

Speaker 2 (36:32):
Good point Linen Mike for winter, Crisp Cotton for summer,
sixteen minutes past seven, and so the debates unfurls now.
The ongoing carnage that is at least part of our
media landscape had another chapter added to it. Of course, yesterday,
once again at TV and said looking to cut costs,
retrench numbers, new consultation periods underway. They're looking to save
another thirty million dollars. Media commentator doctor Gavin Ellis witherus
good morning, good morning mate, without being too mean about it,

(36:54):
do you think to a degree anyway, they've missed the
boat on tech and transformation and they're now reaping what
they've sowd.

Speaker 9 (37:01):
I'm not sure that's yet to fully play out, you know,
the streaming. The streaming strategy is one that both they
and TV three are still working on, although I have
to say that there are plenty of others in the
market ahead of them. So from a you know, in
one sense, yes, they are late to the game. Let's

(37:23):
say that, do you.

Speaker 2 (37:26):
Know what they actually said yesterday? And do they have
a specific plan, because in the headlines I read it
seemed to be sort of will outsource a bit of this,
and we'll set up a team here and we'll have
a creative hub. What does any of that mean.

Speaker 9 (37:38):
Well, I think that they were being very, very cautious
because of the mess they got themselves into with negotiations
with staff last time. Remember, they got a bit of
a slap over the wrist. So they're hedging their bets
here and not saying too much until the negotiating processes

(37:59):
is out. But look, I think the one thing that
we do know for sure is that the one news
website is going to be scrapped. I don't think there's
any doubt about that.

Speaker 2 (38:08):
No, indeed, not do we need week I thought websites
were you've got to have a website, and then suddenly
you don't have to have a website.

Speaker 9 (38:15):
Well, it depends what they do with streaming, you know.
I mean, I regret the loss of any news outlet,
but you know, look, these people are in the same position.
TV broadcasters are in the same position now that newspapers
were in years ago, but with a compressed time frame.

(38:35):
The commercial realities are that they don't have the money
they used to have. So what they're doing is they're
reverting to their core skills, visual production, rather than the
written word. So I can understand that it's a risk, sure,
but you know, let's face it, One News is not
the top website.

Speaker 2 (38:54):
No it is not, by long shot, No it is not.
My other concern is they seem to think streaming is
the answer, which of course it is, but they've also
got to have the heft and then wherewithal to be
a great streamer and compete with the big Do they
have that or not.

Speaker 9 (39:08):
That's their real challenge because moving from a broadcast environment
into a you know, now they are the dominant player,
into a streaming environment where they clearly aren't. You know,
Netflix is dominant there. There are some huge risks there.
The other thing is that you know, they will face

(39:29):
pressure not to turn off terrestrial television because there'll be
people who you know, can't afford streaming or in areas
where it's difficult to get So they're going to be
in a position where they've got conflicting pressures on them
and they're not getting any more money. That's quite clear.
The government's not going to bail them out.

Speaker 2 (39:49):
No, you and I have been around Gavin for about
three hundred and twelve.

Speaker 9 (39:52):
Years, three hundred and fifteen.

Speaker 2 (39:54):
Fifteen, I stand corrected. Have you ever seen a bigger mess?
Not just TV and Z but the mess the media
is in?

Speaker 9 (40:02):
Probably not. I think that that things are getting to
a point where we might have what, you know what
a friend of mine calls a cathartic moment, you know
where where something really major happens and it resets the
whole of the of the landscape. Now that's a pretty

(40:23):
dystopic view, I know. But we're seeing a lot of
negative things happening and not a lot of positives that
are that are coming up to, you know, to to
counteract them. I mean, I think that ENZ and means
move with with one roof, for example, is a way
in which a company is diversifying to to try and

(40:46):
overcome the commercial realities of traditional media. But many don't
have quite the same options that that has had.

Speaker 2 (40:58):
All right, good inside, Kevin shout at Dr Gavin Ellis,
who is with us this morning, Prime Minister still to come.
But in the moment, jobs and what they're paid.

Speaker 1 (41:06):
Seven The Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show podcast on aheart
Radio Power by Newstalks b.

Speaker 2 (41:16):
Now, if you're a business leader, you're always looking for
investment opportunities, of course, so how does a risk free
return on investment of five hundred plus percent sound? Sounds unbelievable,
of course, but it can It can, It can be
true for your business. By letting your knowledge workers harness
the power of AI, you'll generate a very higher return
on investment. So remove the routine, the boring work from
their day. The returns are going to accelerate. They'll make

(41:36):
better decisions and come up with new innovative ideas with AI.
This is where one net comes in. They've got a
sister company called Grizzly AI. They've built a safe and
secure path for risk averse businesses to access generative AI.
It is low touch software, works right out of the box,
great user experience, no integrations, no training, no delays to
get started. So if you want to make a profit,
one dot co dot nz and get your free seven

(41:57):
day trial of Grizzly AI, download the white paper they've
got going there. It's all good. One net plus Grizzly
AI helping you succeed in business Pasking now seven twenty four.
I was going to suggest we're a bit petty in
this country, but I've been saved, fortunately by the bricks.
They're having a couple of debates over money at the moment.
One's involving a woman called Sue Gray who's quit, and

(42:18):
the other is over the role of Cabinet Secretary, which
is the country's top civil servant, a job which is
currently vacant given the incumbent step down for health reason.
Sue Gray, as it turns out, was earning more than
the Prime Minister, which, for reasons I'm not entirely sure about,
needed to be turned into a scrap. There are plenty
of civil servants here, of course, who earn more than
the Prime minister. We don't seem to have a problem
with that, but we don't like it. It appears that the

(42:40):
pms are a little bit wealthy. But I'll come back
to that. The Cabinet Secretary in Britain has paid a
couple of hundred thousand dollars a year, and a bloke
called Lord O'Donnell who used to do it, is busy
running a campaign arguing it's grossly underpaid. As for Miss Gray,
she was on one hundred and seventy thousand dollars a
year the prime minister's one hundred and sixty six. When
this was revealed, she became a distraction. Quit Ironically, she's

(43:01):
got a new job that no one seems to understand
what it means, which is one of the ironies of
this whole jealousy driven nonsense. Would you rather a person
in a high performance role get more in a job
that you understand, or they get less than a job
that you've got no idea just what it is they do.
But because it isn't more than the Prime minister, that

(43:22):
then looks okay. The fact that they may or may
not do anything is beside the point, which brings us
back to the current Prime minister here, who, because he
sold a couple of rentals, is clearly far too wealthy,
so we need a good bitch about that as well.
The fact that the National Party Prime minister before the
current one was a mile more wealthy again never really
seem to bother anybody. So maybe it's this post COVID

(43:44):
cost of living angst that's got so many people upset
at the moment. If you want something to exercise yourself with,
how about the prime minister who ran the country into
the ground, then scarpe it to write a book and
wander around the speaking circuit, creaming it by making money
from her in aptitude and subsequent economic misfortune. What's worse
a civil servant working god knows how many hours for
two hundred thousand dollars a year, a prime minister in

(44:05):
New Zealand on four hundred and eighty four thousand dollars
a year, but a couple of properties he made money on,
or or a fly by nighter who came second in
one election locked us down for the second. Buggeted up
in record fashion, fled to make a fortune telling people
how kind she is. See, some people in jobs are
worth the money, some aren't. But jealousy is a waste
of e motion asking Mike O Kate didn't choose Irish

(44:28):
linen suit. She's a sheet, She's a full It's expensive,
but so worth it. Thank you, Pete. Sam went out
the other day and brought some satine sheets from Briskets.

Speaker 11 (44:37):
I don't think he did.

Speaker 2 (44:38):
I think was his mum do.

Speaker 5 (44:39):
It for him.

Speaker 2 (44:40):
Mum bought it for him, some lovely satin le.

Speaker 11 (44:43):
Some serteine sheets have turned up at his face and.

Speaker 2 (44:45):
He's beautiful, lovely.

Speaker 11 (44:47):
I see a great deal, great deal at Risco's.

Speaker 2 (44:50):
Very very good deal, very good deal. But you always
get a good deal at Brisco's, and that's why they're
a successful business. Mike. The navy accident shouldn't have occurred
due to failed engines and the ship drifting on to
the reef. The half decent marinerd knows the first thing
to do is drop the anchor, which is not a
bad point, Mike. Great interview with a rear admiral. I'm
smelling cover up already. But Jonathan, then again, do you
always smell a cover up? Or are you just smelling
a cover up? Because a lot of people who smell

(45:11):
a cover up on anything these days. The aforementioned Prime Minister.
We'll be with us in the studio in a couple
of moments after the news, which is Nick Nick Bryant,
by the way, Nick Bryant with his call on the
US election for you after eight he read newstalks edb.

Speaker 1 (45:25):
Demanding the answers from the decision makers. The mic asking
breakfast with the Jaguar f pace cut from a different class.

Speaker 2 (45:33):
Newstalk's Eddy Times back on the program after eight o'clock
with US call the months ago to the US vote.
Of course, meantime it is Tuesday, the Prime Minister is
Willis bring good morning to you. Okay, Mike, howay, very well?
Inde Cole a couple of quick things. Nicole McKee. Is
she a liar?

Speaker 16 (45:48):
No, No, she's she's doing a great job. She cares
about gun safety, and she's doing a good job reviewing
an arms Act that's over forty years old and needs
some better work.

Speaker 2 (45:57):
The inference from TV one appears to be she was
hired by haul of Bennett to do a report. They
found a loophole. She claims that she raised it with Bennett.
It's not in the report she wrote. Bennett says it
was never raised. Therefore she said she raised something she didn't,
hence the inference.

Speaker 16 (46:12):
She yees, yeah, Look, I mean the bottom line, she's
always advocated for restrictions on what's called high magazines, high
capacity magazines, and she still does to today as well.
But that report was about illegal firearms that Paula was
running at that time, and actually high capacity magazines was
actually out of scope of that report. You know, how
these reviews happened, and so there are lots of ways

(46:32):
that advice has passed through, but it didn't need to
be in the report for her to hold that position,
And so she still holds that position, which is high
capacity magazines need restrictions on them. But that report was
about illegal firearms, not high capacity magazines.

Speaker 2 (46:43):
Just for clarity's sake, ye, if she wasn't in chargeable,
there just seemed to be tremendous numbers of people angsty
about what she's trying to do or not trying to do.
If she wasn't in charge of this, would you still
be doing the same thing legally speaking?

Speaker 16 (46:56):
Well, I mean, or is this all act Tom mcla
and I had talked about before the election at The
Arms Act is actually forty years old, and it actually
does need a bit of overhauling and reviewing because we've
got to make sure that we've got good gun safety.
We would have also been looking at the review of
the register because we want to make sure that's actually
working efficiently. I want to make sure that it's actually
getting good levels of compliance. There's a bunch of things

(47:18):
that we would do, So yeah, we would have done
some of the same things, but this is you know,
we've got a program of work after forty years of
an Arms Act that actually does need to be re wrestiled.

Speaker 2 (47:27):
The stoff that people we were doing it in like.

Speaker 16 (47:28):
Four phases, and one of the basics was like, you know,
I saw a report this week saying, look, you know
there's a loophole now for gang members at gun rangers. Well,
no disrespect, but a gang member is not going to
a gun range where you learn gun safety.

Speaker 2 (47:41):
Through the politics of this workout. Do you believe in
what you're doing, whether the cole the key's running it
or not.

Speaker 16 (47:47):
Yeah, I think it's entirely appropriate. We revisit the Arms
Act and do a good rewrite and make sure it's
that for purpose and it's driving safety.

Speaker 2 (47:54):
Is Casey Costello a distraction now?

Speaker 16 (47:56):
And as she trouble, Well, she's, I mean, honestly, in
my conversations with she is really fixated on lowering smoking rates, genuinely. So, yes,
she's We've tried some things around heated tobacco products, she's
put some better security around vapes and child proofing and
all that good stuff. So look, I think you know
she's actually very focused on.

Speaker 2 (48:14):
Well she may be focused, but do you believe that
what she's doing by giving tax breaks effectively to a
tobaccota is a smart move.

Speaker 16 (48:21):
Well, yeah, yeah, because I mean we've got some of
the lowest smoking rates in the world. Right, We've gone
from eight points six down to six point eight percent.
We've got the Smoke Free twenty twenty five, which gets
us to five percent daily smoking. We're on track to
deliver that. In fact, the New Zealand legislation has worked
incredibly well to give us lower smoking rates in the world,
or some of them. She's now saying, look, let me
let us try any alternative to get people off cigarettes.

(48:41):
We've done obviously with vaping coming in. I think over
that period has been and that four year period has
been two hundred and thirty thousand people give up cigarette smoking.
If heated tobacco products work and the sense of it
gets people off cigarettes, that's a good thing. That tax
loss of tax ex size excised tax, just so you clear,
is actually us putting a count unting treatment aside saying look,

(49:01):
depending upon how much people switch, depending upon whether these
products are made available in the Zeland marketplace or not
and are compliant with our childproof regulations, that will depend
upon how many people move off smokes into the heat
of tobacco products. And therefore, if it was a mass amount,
we've got a big number put aside as we should do.
It's not the tex SISE revenue will go up from
because there'll be people still smoking.

Speaker 2 (49:21):
The reason I asked the question is that both of
these aren't your ministers. They are your ministers, but they're
not from your party. Is it optically getting awkward?

Speaker 5 (49:29):
Look?

Speaker 16 (49:29):
I mean, I appreciate these politics at play, and they
want to know the other side we want to go
after them. But I can tell you Nicole McKee is
very focused on gun safe. I can tell you know
Casey Costello is very focused on lowing smoking rates. And
I'm comfortable, Okay.

Speaker 2 (49:41):
So by the time you then add this up, Casey Costello,
who have been your target since you've been in government?
Casey Costello, Penny Simmons, Nicole McKee, Karen Schuaw, all women
all new Yeah, if you read a new thing into.

Speaker 16 (49:55):
That, well, I just think that's the opposition tactic to
go after new ministers, and many of those are actually
outside cabinet as well. And and Penny Simmons is probably
the other one that's been in the gun at times
as well. So you know that's why I'm saying, no, no.

Speaker 2 (50:08):
You sacked her. Yeah no, no, no, no.

Speaker 16 (50:10):
We've focused, We've refocused. No, you sacked her, you sacked
I've refocused them.

Speaker 2 (50:15):
We can depeat that all day long.

Speaker 16 (50:16):
But but what I have to say to you is
they are good ministers who are focused on what I'm
asking them to do, which is lower smoking rates, make
sure our gun laws are safe.

Speaker 2 (50:23):
Makes you out, Casey Costello, Nicole McKee are safe in
their portfolios. They're doing a good job. They're backed by
the government. All on this, we're all on the same page. Yes, okay.
Dunedin Hospital the three billion dollar number, where is that?

Speaker 16 (50:39):
Well, that's our latest assessment that it's approaching three billion.

Speaker 2 (50:42):
Who it's basically the.

Speaker 16 (50:45):
One point nine that we've put in. We put another
three hundred million in. It started at one point two,
went to one point six, gone to one point nine.
There's been a latest review where several hundred million dollars
over there's another four hundred million dollars of ancillary stuff
on it, and that gets you approaching three billion.

Speaker 2 (50:58):
Who's done the review because it's not public. There's three
billion dollars, isn't public, No one can see find it,
and so the inferences you're making it up. No, we're
not making it up. This is just a labour special
that we've inherited.

Speaker 16 (51:09):
Whether it's been Fairies, school project, school buildings, or now
to need an hospital. All of these things are ideas
that end up running without budget that actually backs them
up from behind. I tell you, at three billion dollars,
that would be the most expensive hospital building.

Speaker 2 (51:23):
If it is do we haven't seen the three billion.
We've only got your word on it. If it isn't
three billion and it's say two point one or two
point two, that's a whole different scenario. And you've got
a really angry town, as you found out yesterday. Yeah yeah, yeah,
but that's Look, I get the frustration.

Speaker 16 (51:37):
I mean, I'm frustrated as a new government ten months
and having to clean this mess up and sort it out.
But we are said we'd make tough decisions. We said
that we'd get financial discipline in the joint and we've
taken the budget from one point six to one point nine.
We can build a very good hospital in Otago for
the people of the South for one point nine billion dollars,
but it will be one point nine billion dollars. And
that's why we've got the urgent review with Chris Bishop

(51:58):
and Shane Reti looking at do you stage the old
site or do you scale back.

Speaker 2 (52:02):
The new site.

Speaker 16 (52:03):
But we've got to get this thing back within the
one point nine billion we're up for. We'll do that
very quickly and then we've got to get it.

Speaker 2 (52:09):
But if you're running it on one point nine and
what as opposed to what the region actually needs. What
if one point nine becomes basically a ten shed on
the court of the site blows out? Again? I just
look all around the world.

Speaker 16 (52:21):
You can build some pretty amazing buildings for one point
nine billion dollars.

Speaker 2 (52:24):
Yeah, but we don't know.

Speaker 16 (52:25):
But we need to and we need to get a
hell of a lot better at building infrastructure. And so
that's part of the thing that maybe there's some different
ways of doing this. We've said we're open to public
private partnerships. There's all sorts of ways that we could
deliver it.

Speaker 2 (52:37):
We are delivering. Get the Chinese and you remember when
COVID came along and they built those hospitals. Yeah, and
they've built them in a week and everyone said they're
fall down. They didn't fall down. Why you get the Chinese, Well,
we will look.

Speaker 16 (52:46):
At all options. I won't be the Chinese, but we
will look at all options. The Chinese, Well, we'll look
at all options to make sure we can build a
kick as if a hospital down in another south.

Speaker 2 (52:55):
What's the wrong with the Chinese. No, there's nothing wrong
with the Chinese.

Speaker 16 (52:57):
But I'm just saying we're up for anything to look
at getting this infrastructure built because we do a problem
like I mean, you would have seen it with the
school property buildings, right. I'm sure that report came back saying, man,
we've got massive mission creep. We've got all these architectural buildings,
everything's bespoke, huge costs. Four hundred and fifty schools from memory,
you know, a couple almost two billion dollars, not.

Speaker 2 (53:16):
Literally, that's what we do a standardized way. Because I
was watching Bishop and Erica stand there in front of
these new buildings. I understand what they're buildings. So they're
building prefare buildings. I get that. But what I don't get,
because they haven't seen the three billion dollars, is whether
the three billions real or you're just making it up
for excuse yet no in not getting the hospital they deserve,
and we're promise no, no, did anyone.

Speaker 16 (53:36):
Get the hospital? They'll get a great hospital for one
point nine billion dollars. Okay, that's what we're going to do.

Speaker 2 (53:40):
Because you need another hundred million plus for the ship
that's sunk. So are you going to replace it?

Speaker 16 (53:44):
Well, it'll be dependent upon our defense capability plan that
we've got going on.

Speaker 2 (53:48):
So what I've asked.

Speaker 16 (53:50):
We've got new leaders of the military on all the
three forces. We've actually got a new Minister with Judith Collins,
and a new Secretory of Defense. I've asked that new
leadership group to write us a strategy for the next
ten to twenty years because I actually want to know
that where we're going to add value to our relationships
and our partnerships, you know, particularly Australia. So we've got
to choose, as a small country, what we're going to
be really brilliant and well class at and capability we're

(54:11):
going to bring to our alliance partners and choose actually
what we're not going to do. And so I want
that strategy and that leadership team to come together. That
plan will come together probably end of year early next year,
and obviously now with an anticipated loss of this this ship,
we need to put that into the considerations.

Speaker 2 (54:28):
Can you believe what's going on in this country at times?

Speaker 16 (54:31):
We've got a lot of things to sort out, my friend. Yeah,
there are moments where you pick up every rock and
you go jeeves. Okay, the healthcare is Thistin has got
some challenges education, but we can fix it.

Speaker 2 (54:40):
Might speaking of healthcare, the deficits blown out nine hundred
and something million dollars has lest the leady. Actually I'm
not criticizing, I'm just asking has he actually done anything yet,
because he's the fear When you got appointed, it was
a million dollars.

Speaker 16 (54:51):
And they started in July one, and those reports that
that fit seut of finances to June thirty.

Speaker 2 (54:57):
I saw Labor have a go at.

Speaker 16 (54:58):
Us trying to sort of distract from having botched the
system up by saying, oh, I know, we've faked the numbers.

Speaker 2 (55:03):
We haven't faked the numbers.

Speaker 16 (55:04):
The reality is, even if you put the pay equity
money on that side of the financial year, you still
have six hundred million dollar sort of deficit. So now
he's doing a great job and he's trying to you know,
he's got a lot to sort through. You know, you've
got to make sure they've got financial capability. And we
understand when we're putting seventeen billion dollars more in and
we're putting two billion into farmacts, six hundred million more

(55:25):
into those cancer drugs, we're putting a lot of money
in and I need to know that good money is
going into a good organization, not a bad one.

Speaker 2 (55:31):
And so he's sorting it out. I asked Chris Boshop
this yesterday. But you're sitting in the studio this morning
because once again parliament's not sitting in this country. And
one of the things you need to do when you
open parliament has passed the fast Track law. Yes, so
we can get on and build some stuff. Yes, why
aren't you opening parliament and passing the fast track law.

Speaker 16 (55:45):
Well, we will have that as law before the end
of the year. With the aill and gas ban overturned
by the end of the year. We've got a big
program between now and Christmas. So Chris's Leader of the House,
he's got to work that schedule up with the other
political parties in the Parliament and the Speaker. But you know,
we've got a lot of wit to do.

Speaker 2 (56:02):
Okay, just quickly from Dinegan yesterday. The other heat you
got was this business of an alleged buyout or whatever.
So Mitchell says, the blueprints coming is a buyout of
any description in difficult parts of the country. Your problem
or a council's problem.

Speaker 16 (56:15):
Well, actually it's a number of players challenges, and that's
why we want a proper a thought. You know, we
want to need a proper sort of framework and approach
to it over many years, because it's going to be
over decades. But actually the property owner has a piece
of this and some resk to share, banks, insurance companies,
local government, regional councils and central government. And it's going
to be our generation but also to be the generation
in thirty years time.

Speaker 2 (56:35):
But does anyone addressing this, because I mean South the
Needin has been flooding forever. We all know it's a
basin and so when it's a basin yet again, and
they go, what do you do now?

Speaker 16 (56:43):
But I just say, actually, what was good having gone
down there yesterday and seen actually what they did is
like the pump station guy. So I actually went and
met with them that do wastewater and stormwater pumping. Incredible job,
like they were moving six thousand liters a second of
stormwater out of that system. They kept South toned and
in great shape and are through that. And so the
eleven red sticker buildings that are down there actually more

(57:04):
to to a slip risk at the moment. So we
just need to ascertain whether that's red stick at as
we would talk about here in Auckland or on Hawk's
Bay or not.

Speaker 2 (57:12):
And we'll work that through with the council. Good to see.
Good See Christopher Luxem twelve away from eight.

Speaker 1 (57:19):
The Vike Asking Breakfast Full Show podcast on iHeartRadio powered
by News Talks.

Speaker 2 (57:24):
It'd be Mike Parliament not sitting because at school holidays
it's been that way for years. You know, well it's
been that way for years. Doesn't make it right though,
for goodness sake, Ree Mitchell yesterday and of course Luxan,
who were in Donedan yet again see the South Duneda.
I mean, anyone who knows anything about Dneda, knows about
South the need, knows about the risk, knows about the
whole ongoing year's long discussion about sort of shifting out

(57:47):
of the area and what they're going to do and
buying people out anyway, there's a blueprint coming and what
I was trying to work out is that the Dunedin
City Council's issue, is it the Otaga Regional Council's issue,
is that the government's issue? Is it your issue? If
you live in South the need and you've got insurance
troubles and you know you flood, you know, And this
is what I've been trying to raise on the program
for the last couple of years. You're going to get
like America where you can't afford insurance, or you don't

(58:09):
want insurance, or you're going to have large events in
which people who didn't have insurance are going to have
all sorts of problems. And as always, it always comes
back to the government. Now, speaking of property generally, are
the numbers out this morning? House prices? I'll give you
a little little hint of light here. National average asking
price for property in September is up zero point six percent,
first time since March that prices have seen month on

(58:31):
month increases. So we're on the move here. West Coast
is up over three percent, Northland up over two by
a plenty, up over one point nine. Four regions going
down unfortunately, Nelson down a bit, Taranaki down a couple,
gives been down one, Southland down two, but the rest
the rest of the country on the up and up
seven away from eight.

Speaker 1 (58:52):
Costing Breakfast with Bailey's real estate news dogs the FV.

Speaker 2 (58:56):
While we're on the economy in general. West Pax regional
report this morning they do a chili or hot thing.
It's reasonably chilly household and businesses every region reporting ongoing challenges,
but some of the frosty conditions are showing early signs
of thawing. This is good. Very few firms told them
they were looking to take on new staff. Many have
been reducing the size of their workforce. Number of businesses,

(59:17):
though noted that demand has been flat or mixed in
recent months. That's an improvement. Got some bright spots in
the economy. Continued to trend higher in international visitor numbers,
firming outlook for some of our key agricultural exports. That
part's encouraging. Feedback on cost pressure is also less worrying
than it has been for some time.

Speaker 5 (59:37):
Good.

Speaker 2 (59:38):
Most notable change, they say since their last survey, is
the sense the worst is finally behind us, So I think,
at last we're on the right track. North Island a
bit more downbeat than the South Island, but slowly but
surely things are coming right. News Next.

Speaker 1 (59:54):
Your trusted source for news and views, the my Hosking Breakfast,
Bailey's Real Estate, your local experts across residential, commercial, and
rural news dogs'd be.

Speaker 2 (01:00:08):
Time hit, a seven class ape a month ago, a
couple of assassination attempts, any number of ongoing court cases,
several debates went involving a candidate no longer in the race,
and polls that are so tight you can't separate Harris
from Trump. So let's get a feel for where we
think we might be at with our favorite America. Watching

(01:00:29):
Nick Bryan, who's back with us next morning, to you.

Speaker 5 (01:00:31):
They might were at the point where the rubber meets
the road.

Speaker 2 (01:00:33):
That's exactly right. Since we last talked, what are your
thoughts on Harris as a candidate?

Speaker 17 (01:00:38):
Well, I think she's a lot better candidate than we
thought she was going to be. I mean, it was
all this Carmela mania stuff that came as a real surprise.
I mean, Mike, a lot of people when Joe Biden
really sort of destroyed himself in that first televised debate
with Donald Trump. Really thought that Karmla wasn't ready for
prime time. They were thinking of people like the California

(01:01:00):
governor Gavin Usam. They were thinking of people like the
Michigan governor Gretchen Whittner, a woman who's proven that she
can do well in the Rost Belt. Obviously as vice
president as the supposed next in line. Karmala Harris was
on that list, but a lot of people didn't want
her to end up the nominee, including I think people
like Barack Obama who were mooting the possibility of some

(01:01:21):
sort of nominating process that was shorthand for saying let's
not go with Kamala.

Speaker 5 (01:01:25):
I think they were worried about.

Speaker 17 (01:01:27):
Two really big negatives in their mind. At least one
was her gender and one was her race. I mean,
I think there are a lot of people who were
worried that a black woman could not win those crucial
states in the Roust Belt. But Mike, I mean, she
really surprised people. I mean, then it started off with
the speed at which she got the nomination. I think
that showed that she was a politician to be reckoned

(01:01:47):
with I think people started looking at her anew They
thought it was crazy that she'd been hidden away really
for the first two years of the Biden presidency. And
I think on the very night Mike, there was a
turning point. She did an you with Alison Cooper on
CNN very shortly after, but Biden's disastrous pull of debate performance,
she came across very well. She admitted what we'd all

(01:02:09):
seen that it wasn't a very good performance. She was commanding.
She's sat in front of American flag, she looked presidential,
she sounded presidential. I think in a lot of verde
As minds, that was when the turnaround began. I think
she is strong, but I do think she still has weaknesses,
particularly on the economy and particularly on immigration.

Speaker 2 (01:02:26):
All Right, a couple of things out of that as
separating herself out from the Biden record. And Trump is
making much of this at the moment. If you want
to do all of this, how come you haven't done
it in the last three and a half years. It's
not an unfair attack, is it.

Speaker 5 (01:02:38):
Yeah?

Speaker 17 (01:02:38):
I think she beat him in a televised debate, but
I think his strongest response and his strongest statement was
right at the end where he said, You've been speaking
about all these things you want to do, but you've
had four years to do them, so why haven't you
done them? I think that is a statement that really resonates.
She's trying to come across as a change candidate. Obviously,
in an election where people do want change, Trump has

(01:02:59):
a harder thing to persuade people on because he was
the president four years ago. I think one of the
problems that Krmala Harris has it's the same problem in
some ways that Al Gore had in two thousand. He
tried to distance himself with Bill Clinton, and in doing so,
he distanced himself stuff that was good a parat the
Clinton presidency. He was so keen to distance himself from

(01:03:20):
the sort of scandal and the Monica Lewitzki side of
the Clinton presidency that he didn't embrace the good, which
was a really strong economy. And I think to a
certain extent, Karmala Harris says the same problem. She's trying
to distance herself from Biden. She's trying to say I'm
the change candidate, and that makes perfect sense, but there
are some stuff that's happening in the Biden administration, which
is good. And I think, you know, you've got to
kind of trust the American lecture on stuff like this.

(01:03:41):
They can differentiate what's good and what's bad. I mean,
the economy is coming out of a slump. You know,
the job numbers last week with very good inflations coming down.
I realized the felt economy for a lot of voters
doesn't feel the same. There's a lot of nostalgia for
the Trump economy, lower interest rates, lower gas prices. But
I think it's a tricky one to sort of say,
you know, there are some good things that have happened

(01:04:02):
during the Biden presidency, and there are things I need
to distance myself from. And that leads to some of
the mixed messaging and on questions like the economy, Mike,
I mean this, this strikes me as just amazing. She
still hasn't got a brilliant, really well home response. So
that simple question, what do you do to solve the
cost of living crisis?

Speaker 5 (01:04:18):
What do you do on the economy?

Speaker 17 (01:04:20):
She does serve up these word salads on that basic
question when she'd have thought she'd have figured out.

Speaker 2 (01:04:25):
By it exactly. So I'm going to come to a
thing called the Breakthrough, which is a polling project that
tracks how public perceive and what they hear on this.
But one of the things they are saying about her
is she doesn't actually say anything. She just gibbles is
that true or fear or not.

Speaker 5 (01:04:41):
It's a real problem for her.

Speaker 17 (01:04:42):
I think during that debate performance, right she was in
excellent form. I thought that the messaging was was pretty sharp.
The one problem I thought she had was in the
first question, which was the economy. And the problem for
Kamala Harris, of course, is the economy is the paramount
issue for most focus It's more important than what happened
on January the sixth, It's more more important than what's
happening in the Middle East right now.

Speaker 5 (01:05:02):
It is more important than abortion. It is the single
most important issue.

Speaker 17 (01:05:06):
And I think on that she hasn't got a particularly
good answer. They pursued a media strategy up until this week, really,
which is to not do much media, and I think
that's been a real problem because she just doesn't sad
match for it.

Speaker 5 (01:05:18):
You know what It's like, man, the more you do it,
the more fluid you get.

Speaker 17 (01:05:22):
You get into kind of responses that are familiar you've
used them before, You've used formulations that work, and the
problem with the media strategy she hasn't had the chance
to do that. I thought she was very good when
she came out of the gate. She went straight to Wisconsin,
which is one of the key states. She gave that
great line. You know, I'm a prosecutor. I've dealt with cheats,

(01:05:42):
I've dealt with felons. I'm used to Donald Trump's type.
That was very good messaging and it really cut through
a straight away. But I think the message on the
economy has been really, really poor, and her messaging on immigration,
which is another key is she hasn't been great either.
And I think you know, if you looking for the
weaknesses in the in the Biden camp, I.

Speaker 5 (01:06:02):
Think that's that's a really huge weakness.

Speaker 2 (01:06:05):
All right, let's go to the other side in a
couple of months. Stow with us Nicknickbrian out of Australia
this morning. More on Trump in a moment thirteen past.

Speaker 1 (01:06:12):
The Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show podcast on iheard radio
powered by News Talks.

Speaker 2 (01:06:17):
It'd be news Talks. It'll be sixteen past eight. One
month ago. In the US race, Errol made mcbriand is
with us this morning. So Trump Nick last time, the
argument was he's got the vote that he's got. They
love them, they're electioned on, they're rusted on. He's not
growing it. Is that still true?

Speaker 9 (01:06:34):
Yeah?

Speaker 5 (01:06:34):
I mean he does have this ceiling, doesn't hear?

Speaker 17 (01:06:36):
Forty seven percent, it seems, and that may be enough
to win the president's seaman. Let's face it, they've got
an electoral college advantage. I mean, Trump won't win the
nationwide vote i'd have thought, but he could win the
presidency as he did in twenty sixteen, by winning the
key states that you need to win, and in that
in that election, of course, it was the Ross Belt.
I don't think Donald Trump's as strong candidate as he
was in twenty sixteen. We were talking about the problems

(01:06:58):
with Carmla Harris's messaging. I think Trump has too. I mean,
he's just not as articular, he's not as sharp, he's
not as match fit as he was in twenty sixteen. Crucially,
he's not doing so many rallies. He's sowing a really
small number.

Speaker 5 (01:07:11):
Compared to what he did in twenty sixteen.

Speaker 17 (01:07:14):
I think sometimes presidential election is are a little bit
like sport, Mike, the person who shows they are.

Speaker 5 (01:07:19):
Desperate to win it and king to win it often
wins it.

Speaker 17 (01:07:22):
And I just don't get that same hunger for victory
in twenty twenty four that Trump had in twenty sixteen.
And that's reflected in the number of rallies that he's doing.

Speaker 5 (01:07:31):
And he's an older man.

Speaker 17 (01:07:32):
I mean, he's seventy eight years old now, and obviously
the age issue in this election has been completely upended.
It was a thing that obviously force Biden from the race,
but now it's a problem for Donald Trump as well.
He just doesn't seem to be quite as strong a
candidate as he was in twenty sixteen, and he does
have this problem about growing the base. And I mean, Mike,

(01:07:53):
it's such a close race now, isn't it. I Mean,
it's just all down to these seven states. And I mean,
of those seven, I keep on looking at those restpot
states and Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan. The race is just
so tight there. It does look like Carmena Harris is
a slight advantage at the moment, but we're talking about
shifts of just a few thousand votes. We're talking about
who can get their vote out. You know, one of

(01:08:14):
the things that Trump always thinks is that there are
people out there who don't ordinarily vote, many of them
young men, who they hope can get to the polls,
And anything that happens in the next few weeks, anything
that just shifts a few votes in a few different places,
could have the impact to actually decide this race.

Speaker 2 (01:08:32):
The old October surprise walls the Vance. Have they made
a material difference or not.

Speaker 5 (01:08:38):
I thought it was a really interesting debate.

Speaker 17 (01:08:39):
I think we found out that Tim Wills perhaps isn't
the kind of huge bonus to the Democratic ticket that
we thought he was initially. That was surprised how in
particular he was who's sort of seen a bit gaff prone,
didn't he when he said he's sort of befriended mass shooters,
that kind of weird thing.

Speaker 5 (01:08:52):
He wasn't sort of.

Speaker 17 (01:08:54):
He emerged as this sort of great communicated didn't he
the kind of America's dad, that high school football coach,
the Friday night lights thing.

Speaker 5 (01:09:01):
And of course, you know, Jady Vance.

Speaker 17 (01:09:04):
Was sort of characterized as this kind of oversized frat boy,
you know, somebody who's really nasty or the childless cat Laders.
I mean, he came out just trying to show there's
no more mister nasty guy, didn't he He's had this
nice guy persona. But that final question, I mean, I
think for ninety minutes in the debate he was totally
on top. But it was that final question about Jeremy
the sixth, wasn't it, And that final refusal to accept

(01:09:27):
that button had actually won in twenty twenty, that is
the clip that has sort of survived the debate and
had the big after life after the debate. So I think,
you know, as I say, anything that shifts the doll
in this election. Normally vice presidential debates don't matter at all,
but I think that one could because I think a
lot of women, especially are really not that keen on
Jady Vance and often Mike. It just comes down to

(01:09:50):
wavering women. A lot of them live in these suburbs
of the rost belt states like Philadelphia, like Milwaukee. You
know a lot of them just don't like Jady Vance.
And that could be especially his answers on abortion, which
is another issue which is going to drive.

Speaker 5 (01:10:03):
A lot of vote for Kamla Harris.

Speaker 2 (01:10:05):
So I take it from your comment to riderpiece yesterday
suggested it's not unlikely, it's not impossible that you could
get a result on the night college vote of two
seventy to two sixty eight. It's that tight. Do you
see that?

Speaker 5 (01:10:17):
Yeah?

Speaker 17 (01:10:17):
And this is really crucial because that would involve a
state that we don't often talk about, which is Nebraska.

Speaker 5 (01:10:24):
Forty eight out of.

Speaker 17 (01:10:25):
The fifty states might a lot there electoral votes on
the basis of winner Texall, if.

Speaker 5 (01:10:29):
You win just one vote more than your.

Speaker 17 (01:10:31):
Rival in Pennsylvania, you get all of Pennsylvania's nineteen electoral
college votes. There are two states that don't do that,
Nebraska and Maine. Now, there is one congressional district in
May in Nebraska, Omaha the second congressional district which went
Democrat in twenty and twenty. And what the Republicans has
been trying to do is change the rule so that

(01:10:52):
Nebraska becomes a Winner's Texas state. It's a reliabie red
state that would deliver all of its electoral college votes
to Donald Trump. But there was an attempt last month
to change the rules, and one Republican decided the rules
should stay the same. And we talk about the blue dot.
This this one electoral college vote in Nebraska that is

(01:11:15):
based on a congressional district, and it looks like Kamala
Harrison will win Omaha, which is that congressional district, and
that could tilt her from two sixty nine to two seventy.

Speaker 5 (01:11:24):
Two seventy is a magic number you need to win.

Speaker 17 (01:11:26):
So we look at these seven states, but let's not
forget Nebraska as well, because if she won those three
Ross Belt states, right Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, that gets
her to two sixty nine. The thing that gets her
over the top is that one blue dot in Nebraska.

Speaker 5 (01:11:44):
Everything matters, Mike, in this final stage, does not.

Speaker 2 (01:11:46):
Just And I asked you last time we interviewed. I said,
last question, call it and you wouldn't. You couldn't any change.

Speaker 5 (01:11:52):
No, not at all.

Speaker 17 (01:11:53):
And I think anybody who tells you with any certainty
who's going to win in this stage isn't worth listening to.

Speaker 5 (01:11:58):
You know, we could have more October surprise.

Speaker 17 (01:12:00):
Frankly, I think the October surprise in the twenty twenty
four election came in twenty twenty three with the Hammers
attack on Israel. I think the ramifications of that are
still working through I think Benjamin Att Yahoo could end
up having quite an impact on this election, depending what
happens in Iran. And it's not only the turmoil in
the Middle East politically, it's the impact economically.

Speaker 5 (01:12:23):
You know, there's a spiking gas prices before the election.

Speaker 17 (01:12:25):
Again, that nostalgic feeling about the Trump economy comes into
play again. You know, there are so many things that
could impact this race between.

Speaker 5 (01:12:32):
Now and then.

Speaker 17 (01:12:33):
As I said, I've been saying this all year, Mike,
it's just a few thousand votes in a few states
that'll decide this election. Who can get out their vote.
It's a squeaker. It's gonna be a photo finish.

Speaker 2 (01:12:42):
Gonna have to get you on again talk So Mike,
appreciate it as all Waynick Brian out of Australia in
the early hours and Australian Morning is Lad's book as
The Forever War. If you haven't read that, well Worth
at eight twenty two the.

Speaker 1 (01:12:54):
Mic asking breakfast with l Vida Retirement Community News togs,
he'd be.

Speaker 2 (01:13:00):
A twenty five speaking of the more as we were
a mama ago. These are the numbers I promised you
earlier on the camict yesterday from the Anti Defamation League
centerper extremesm ADL in America more than ten thousand incidents
in this year, so, which is a two hundred percent increase.
It's the highest ever level of anti Semitic activity they've
seen since nineteen seventy nine, which is when they started

(01:13:21):
recording things. Eighty fifteen incidents of verbal or written harassment,
eighteen hundred and forty incidents of vandalism, one hundred and
fifty incidents of physical assault. Not that I defend any
this in any way, shape or form, but when you
think of the size of America, and you think of
three hundred plus million Americans, one hundred and fifty incidents
of physical assault, isn't actually that many. California twelve hundred
and sixty six, New York twelve hundred and eighteen, New

(01:13:43):
Jersey eight hundred and thirty, Florida four hundred and sixty three,
as farmers Air, as far as anti Muslim incidents are concerned,
eight thousand and sixty one. So there is more anti
Semitism than there is Islamophobia. And I referenced with Nick
a couple of moments ago this thing called the Breakthrough,
which is a polling project that tracks how the public
is following the election news, and there's a new trend developing.

(01:14:07):
The word liar is used increasingly often with both of them.
Obviously Trump you wouldn't be surprised about, but Harris is
increasingly seen as a liar. But the other trend I
will tell you about in a couple of moments, which
is equally fascinating, and it doesn't bode well for her.
We need to go to the UK. Sue Grave's the

(01:14:27):
talking point, the big one hundred day reset for the
Labor Party that has found themselves in no end of trouble.
Will get the detail from darfter the news, which is next.
You're a newstalg zed B.

Speaker 1 (01:14:40):
Setting the news agenda and digging into the issues. The
Mic Hosking Breakfast with Alveda, Retirement, Communities, Life your Way,
News togs EDB.

Speaker 2 (01:14:49):
Now, if you haven't heard the news already this morning,
it's very good news. Graham Norton is going to be
touring the country for the very first time, and Evening
with Graham Norton is what he's decided to call it,
which is wise because it's sort of as what he does.
It'll be in the Evening with Graham Norton. So we're
talking March next year into April in fact, and so
interestingly that'll be good for Christmas. You can do something
about Christmas gift. So christ it's the twenty fifth of March, Wellington,

(01:15:11):
twenty ninth of March and Auckland the first of April.
Tickets are going on sale this coming Friday. So if
you want to follow us on the old Facebook or
the Insta later on today, we've got tickets to be one,
so you might want to avail yourself of that opportunity.
Twenty three minutes away from.

Speaker 1 (01:15:27):
Nine International Correspondence with ends an eye insurance, peace of
mind for New Zealand business.

Speaker 2 (01:15:33):
Well we'll go to Rik and our older in Rod
Little's Withers Roderick. Good morning to you.

Speaker 13 (01:15:38):
Good morning to you mate, Nice to hear you back.

Speaker 2 (01:15:40):
Nice to be back. Now do explain this to me,
Sue Gray Earns one hundred and seventy thousand pounds and
Key Starmer Earns one hundred and sixty six. Now in
this country we have the same scenario. There are plenty
of public servants who earn more than politicians. We don't
seem to make that bigger deal about it. Why is
it a big deal for you guys?

Speaker 13 (01:16:00):
It never used to be a big deal. I mean,
it's been this kind of corrosive thing over the last
twenty to thirty years that anybody who earns more than
the Prime minister is earning too much. That's a matter
of fact. That's true if you're on the left and
you're looking at kind of the bosses of corporations, and

(01:16:23):
it's true if you're on the right and you're looking
at council chiefs, because the majority of council chiefs across
the country will earn more than the Prime minister does.
And Sue Gray, as you know, a senior civil servant,
earned more than the Prime minister. It just happens to
be the case that, you know, in the case of

(01:16:43):
Sue Gray, she was overpaid by roughly amount of the
amount of money which she received in most people's opinions,
but it's always been the case made and it's stupid,
you know, I mean, because it's one of the things
we should talk about and perhaps are barred from doing so,

(01:17:06):
and no politician will raise it. It's that both our
MPs and indeed our Prime minister don't get enough money No,
it really is as simple as that exactly.

Speaker 2 (01:17:17):
See, our prime minister gets four hundred and eighty one
thousand dollars, which in your money is two forty so
way more, yeah, than the Prime Minister of Great Britain.
Mind you, our prime minister doesn't accept glasses and free suits,
so it's sort of all balances up, doesn't it.

Speaker 13 (01:17:32):
Well, I suppose you might say that, But then by
the same tone of your prime minister is also the
prime minister of a small hermit state tucked away at
the end near the it is. It seems to me
an absurdity that the prime Minister of this country doesn't
get somewhere in the original three to four hundred thousand pounds,

(01:17:52):
you know, it seems to be an absurdity.

Speaker 2 (01:17:55):
So Gray's new job as the Overseer of Nations or
whatever the hell they call it? What what is there?

Speaker 13 (01:18:02):
It isn't anything. She doesn't have a job. She's been
shuffled off, and I one could see her being shuffled
off a year ago when she was first appointed. She's obviously,
of course, a lot of dissension, or been the occasion
of a lot of dissension within Downing Street and within
the people who who who have been working for Kierstar's campaign.

(01:18:28):
She's very simple minded, she's dogmatic. I think the phrase
which is usually used is doesn't suffer fools gladly, which
means she's a rude cow. I think it's the way
one has to translate these civil service epists. But it's

(01:18:48):
also true that much as with Alistair Campbell, she had
to become the story. And it's not just that, because
this is quite a remarkable decision. If you look at
Kierstar over the last six to eight months, whether since
becoming Prime Minister or even before then, he hasn't sacked people.

(01:19:08):
There have been calls for him to sack people and
he's never done it. But clearly the howl round within
his own camp rather than in the press at large,
had become so grave that he could do nothing other
than that. And so we have a new chief of
staff now, who is Morgan McSweeney or boating mcboat faces.

(01:19:29):
He's almost certainly going to become known. And who's an
Irish guy who's been working with Starma for a long time.

Speaker 2 (01:19:36):
Right, So I'm watching Lord O'Donnell, who was the former
Cabinet secretary, and you're looking for a cabinet secretary at
the Minment and that's a couple hundred thousand pounds a
year Ken, and he's arguing you should get paid more
because he, subsequent to being the Cabinet's secretary, has been
he says, paid a lot more to do a lot less.
Do you not run the risk if you don't pay
people properly that the only reason they're really there is
for the power or the authority or the ego, and

(01:19:59):
not actually for the money, because half decent people can
earn decent money elsewhere.

Speaker 13 (01:20:04):
Of course you do. And it's not just that, mate.
I mean forgive me for defending Starmer for a moment,
but you know, if you are supposedly the most powerful
man in the country but you're being paid at the
level of the manager of Driffield City Council, you know

(01:20:29):
then you are prone to the kindnesses of aids who
offer you a million pound apartment or an eighteen million
pound department and buy some clothes for your poor wife.

Speaker 5 (01:20:42):
You know.

Speaker 13 (01:20:44):
The fact that we pay our elected politicians so little
comparatively is that it means that they are at risk
always of this kind of accusation and that they're taking
money on the free and yet if you try to
suggest that the money should be raised, you know you

(01:21:06):
will hear it on Question Time on the BBC. I've
said before on Question Time the MP should get more
and there will always be a Nursey says I.

Speaker 18 (01:21:15):
Get thirty four thousand pounds a year. You have to
try to explain to them, yes, well okay, and I'm
sure you do a great job, but this is the
Prime minister, you know, this is an important job.

Speaker 2 (01:21:29):
I had a poll out this morning. I had a
poll out this morning on Starmer who's knit favorability, and
favorability is now sitting at minus thirty five and this
resets on and they're looking at the non don text
and the equity texts and the private pensiontech. How have
things gone so wrong so fast?

Speaker 13 (01:21:45):
Because he's not very good. I think it's the first
thing to say. I mean, I think that does have
to be said that there never seem to be any
driving force behind Starma other than the desire to win.
And he won on a very shallow basis. You know,
he didn't carry within the sorts of people which Teddy

(01:22:08):
Blair carried with him in ninety seven and still far
less that Margaret Thatcher carried with her in seventy nine,
even though it's a comparable landslide. He is not very adept,
He is not very agile politically. There is no great
imagination about how to make this country better, which is

(01:22:29):
what we all rather hoped for. There are people within
his shadow go or within his cabinet who suggest a
degree of imagination, such as we're streeting, for example. But
nonetheless this is a grey managerial, boring labor regime and

(01:22:49):
people don't like it.

Speaker 2 (01:22:50):
Always a pleasure. Might we'll catch up on Thursday. Rod
Little out of Britain this morning. I wonder if there's
a ca See we had this discussion in this country,
didn't we with the Adoon government. They weren't really They
set there for no years, allegedly getting prepped up. When
they arrived, they didn't know what they were doing, so
it was endless working groups. We've seen the same with
Albanisi in Australia. Small honeymoon, but now a disaster starmer
hasn't even lasted one hundred days. I wonder if there's

(01:23:11):
a connection. Eight forty five.

Speaker 1 (01:23:14):
The Mike Asking Breakfast Full Show podcast on iHeartRadio powered
by news talks that be so.

Speaker 2 (01:23:20):
To this the breakthrough. So this is a polling project
in the States as regards the American election, and the
big trend is that there are more and more Americans
who are not hearing what Harris says. So I mentioned
before the news the word lie. They're increasingly associating the
word lie with Harris. Obviously they've associated it with Trump
for a sustained period of time. The fourth most mentioned

(01:23:41):
word after border, polls and campaign they worry about her
saying nothing issues like immigration and the economy later started
makes a notable or marx and noticeable shift in responses
about Harris herself on those issues. Most mentions for immigration
related words in relation to her campaign since she entered

(01:24:02):
the race in late July. Now, she doesn't want the
attention drawn to things like immigration and the economy. As
Nick was trying to point out earlier on what they
were hoping to talk about was abortion, the female vote
and abortion, Roe v. Wade, the Supreme Court, the Trump appointments.
That was their campaign because they don't have a lot
to say on the economy, which is a weird thing
because the economy, if you look at the FED and

(01:24:22):
follow the FED seem to have managed, unlike US, a
soft landing, So if you look at the paperwork, it
looks reasonably good and the job numbers the other day.
There's nothing really to moan about in terms of the
American economy, all things being equal, But they don't want
to talk about the economy, and they certainly don't want
to talk about immigration because they're week on that. They
want to talk about abortion. So people are seeing her

(01:24:43):
or marking her down increasingly. But on Trump's side of
the equation, the assassination attempts remained prominent. As far as
what people are hearing about Trump or thinking about Trump,
immigrations faded a little bit. His meeting with Zelensky last
week is in play. Still at the moment, a lot
of people think he's a liar. Sixty four percent reported seeing, reading,

(01:25:05):
or hearing something about Harris in the past week. Now
that's significant because the week before it was sixty eight,
So it's gone from sixty eight to sixty four. So
the main point being the trend developing is fewer and
fewer people are following what's going on. In other words,
the inferences they've made up their mind. They're not following
the story, So a fourth week in which more people

(01:25:27):
reported hearing about Trump more than they heard or reported
hearing about Harris, and that if you're in a campaign
for your life, is the last bit of information you
want to hear interesting A nine away from nine.

Speaker 1 (01:25:41):
The mic Costing Breakfast with the Jaguar Mbase News Talks dB.

Speaker 2 (01:25:46):
Jane Reddy's office has been in touch as regards our
interview this morning with the Prime Minister. And my big
thing about the Dunedin Hospital, having been born in Dunedin
and therefore born in the hospital, is that there's nothing
wrong with Look, we can't afford this and this is
just life. But we didn't get the three billion dollar figure,

(01:26:06):
and so the Prime Minister partially explained it. But this
has come from and this was the great argument that
seems to be two arguments at the moment. One is
it's not fair, it's not right. Wow, And I've got
no time for that. The cold hard reality is sadly
we don't have any money in this country and everything
we do costs more than we thought it would and
the cost is already blowing out, and so the three
billion dollar hospital is ridiculous and I would like to

(01:26:29):
think most people would accept that if, however reluctantly. But
we hadn't actually seen where they got the three billion from.
So total appropriation one point eight recent cost estimates several
hundred million dollars over that approximation, plus we got four
hundred million for pathology, the lab of the car parking,
the refuge, decommissioning of buildings all up, that's coming in
at three billion dollars, and Shane Retti's office says there

(01:26:51):
is more to come, so that's not over yet. So
I'd like to think that if they can show that
the number is three, it's unrealistic, it's not acceptable. We'll
build at one, eight, one, nine, and the ego that
is your hospital, and you don't want to. I'm sure
even the people of Dunedin would argue that at three
you don't want to take facilities and costings and projects

(01:27:12):
and infrastructure away from other people because you say, noe,
three it is, and we want what we want and
never the twain shall meet. So at least we got
a little bit more clarity on the numbers. At the
end of the day, five away from nine.

Speaker 1 (01:27:24):
Trending now with Chemist Warehouse, the home of big brand ftamens.

Speaker 5 (01:27:29):
Right.

Speaker 2 (01:27:29):
So we've got ourselves a new hit song and this
is by a guy called John karn canonell smiling through
the taste blood, and it's called Fighter, Got Brosy and
Broken Bone. It's number one on the Billboard charts.

Speaker 13 (01:27:52):
They don't know in this ring alone.

Speaker 2 (01:27:56):
Digital sales list. That is not the overall chance of dios.
No one can see flight winning the supporting actress, not
the real thing. But I wason to be too dire
naked rider. Who's this about? Listen to this? Not tell
me who's about?

Speaker 6 (01:28:16):
Don't cash in that last bell all the wind of time.

Speaker 18 (01:28:24):
I'm a fighter, I'm a fighter.

Speaker 5 (01:28:28):
Uh.

Speaker 2 (01:28:28):
He's never written a popular song before get back, and
he's only got five thousand followers on the socials. But
that will try and come questionably, I'm sure one. I
didn't soldier on on this far just lose. I didn't
soldier on the spinal So shot, who's he talking about?

Speaker 6 (01:28:46):
You said?

Speaker 2 (01:28:47):
All you got come a fighter? Is it wrong of
me to side quite likeness? I was born minor.

Speaker 11 (01:29:02):
Song well, and plenty of other people have made similar
comments on the videos. It's things like please get this
man back in office. Lord, you have let him survive
so much?

Speaker 2 (01:29:13):
Can are you of those sentiments? Can it's about Trump?
Because it's about Trump, and because it's election year, and
probably because Fox went, I know, we'll play this quite
a lot. It's gone to number one on the Billboard
Charts Digital sales listing. John Can't Remember We at First
back tomorrow morning from six on the Mic Hosking Breakfast,

(01:29:35):
as always Happy Days.

Speaker 1 (01:29:38):
For more from the Mic Asking Breakfast, listen live to
news talks. It'd be from six am weekdays, or follow
the podcast on iHeartRadio.

All Episodes

Episode Transcript

Popular Podcasts

40s and Free Agents: NFL Draft Season

Dateline NBC

The Bobby Bones Show

.css-15opob5{left:0;position:absolute;top:0.8rem;} All Episodes

.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}Full Show Podcast: 08 October 2024

Episode Transcript

Popular Podcasts

.css-r6mb8g{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:1;overflow:hidden;}40s and Free Agents: NFL Draft Season

Dateline NBC

The Bobby Bones Show

All Episodes

Full Show Podcast: 08 October 2024

40s and Free Agents: NFL Draft Season