April 1, 2025 • 49 mins
Peter Dutton vows to scrap funding for Victoria’s Suburban Rail Loop, Malcolm Turnbull remains coy on who he’ll vote for. Plus, Labor’s latest blunder on the issue of freed foreign criminals.
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Peedo Krandland Live on Sky News Australia.
Speaker 2 (00:08):
Good evening, day two of the campaign, at least the
first formal week feels like it's been going rare for
hasn't it? All Right, Let's get into the show. He's
what's coming up tonight on Kredlin. Darton takes on both
Victorian and federal state labor over the two hundred billion
dollar suburban railroad. It's a controversial project in Victoria, in
a state that's drowning in debt.
Speaker 1 (00:27):
Both leaders.
Speaker 2 (00:28):
Tonight too in Melbourne as we cross into the campaign
traveling teams and get you the latest plenty of polling
data out there too. So tonight we've got to bring
in the leading labor polster, cause Samarus to go through
the detail. Plus a little bit of perspective for me
in a moment on exactly where the coalition sits in
this race.
Speaker 1 (00:48):
A bit of.
Speaker 2 (00:48):
History here because trumpst be it's a lot closer than
some would believe. Plus Malcolm Turnbull won't be campaigning for
the Liberals, he says, and he remains coy on who
he's even going to vote for. Well, I'll be joined
by a proud Liberal Tony Abbott. He's out there campaigning,
not afraid to say he's a liberal either, A better
(01:08):
Darton too, laying down the gold feller to the Prime Minister,
challenging him to a series of debates.
Speaker 3 (01:14):
We offered four debates. We haven't heard back from the
Prime minister. The Prime Minister is now committing to one debate.
I think. Is it committing to a second debate or.
Speaker 1 (01:23):
A third or a fourth?
Speaker 3 (01:24):
I don't think so.
Speaker 2 (01:27):
But first, a whole lot of issues I want to
get through tonight, especially now that both leaders have made
their way to Victoria for the first time in many years.
The state will be a key decider in the election
today off the back of various polls, though there's a
lot of analysis and some handbrigging from liberals too. So
right now, let's have some history and perspective, because while
(01:47):
the political class obsess over the polls, the last thing
they should do is let poles drive policy. All that
polls persuade supporters that they can't win. Back in twenty
in my first election as chief of staff to the
opposition leader, Tony Abbott was behind in every poll that year,
(02:08):
but he went on to win more seats to the
twenty ten election than Labor then led by Julia Gillard. Now,
as I often say to people, in that election, we
won the seats, but we lost the negotiation and with
the support of those disreputable former Nationals Oakshott and Windsor,
Gillard then got into bed with the Greens and we
ended up with that infamous hung parliament in twenty nineteen.
(02:33):
Who can forget that Scott Morrison, Well, he too was
behind in every poll that year, but he went on
to win his miracle victory. Other people in the media
love to tell you what they think about the polls. Well,
here's what I know as a campaigner. Polls don't drive results,
its policy and performance. It drives political outcomes. And that's
(02:56):
what coalition candidates and supporters should be focused on right now. Now,
not fretting because the Laatest News polls turned a narrow
Coalition lead into a narrow Labor one.
Speaker 1 (03:08):
Both.
Speaker 2 (03:08):
Of course, this poll is in because this pole is
within the margin of error.
Speaker 1 (03:13):
But let's have a look at the others.
Speaker 2 (03:15):
Resolve, Well, that's got the neck and neck fifty to fifty,
and then there's a freshwater pole that's got them in front.
Speaker 1 (03:22):
Let's go back to the history again.
Speaker 2 (03:23):
A month out from the twenty ten election, not long
after Labor had swapped out Kevin rud for Julia Gillard,
the coalition was behind in News poll forty five fifty
five a fortnight, and then a week before polling day
we were still behind forty eight fifty two. Now at
the time I can report people questioning to me saying,
(03:46):
just how hungry was aver to win?
Speaker 1 (03:47):
Did you really want to win government?
Speaker 2 (03:51):
So he answered them with that remarkable burst of energy,
the forty eight hour continuous campaign that took us right
up to polling day. And it was that blitz that
brought home the soft vote that's won, the working class vote,
Abbots way and the fighter result. As I said, seventy
two Labor, seventy three to the Coalition, and of course
(04:12):
Gilli then did that deal to save her skin with
the cross Bench. And that's the nearest of first term
governments ever come to losing in nearly a century, or
at least so far. Fast forward to twenty nineteen. At
the start of that campaign too, News poll had the
Coalition again behind forty eight to fifty two, and right
up to polling day did it was on polling day
(04:34):
that the final News poll had the Coalition still behind
forty eight point five to fifty one point five.
Speaker 1 (04:41):
Well, it wasn't just use Pole too.
Speaker 2 (04:43):
Every single poll in that campaign had the Coalition behind
for the entire duration. Yugov, Essential, Lipsos and Morgan. It
famously Morrison had his come from behind win, partly because
Labor had its big target tack and retirees and uncosted
emissions reductions policies, but mostly because Morrison was relentlessly focused
(05:07):
on how Labor would hurt your finances and drive up
your power deals. Now, it's worth noting that whenever the
Coalitions fought power prices and made climate change an economic
issue rather than a moral one, it's done well. It's
only when it's effectively me too Labour's climate and emissions policies,
(05:28):
as it did with turbul in twenty sixteen when he
threw away fourteen seats, and again in twenty twenty two
when Scott Morrison signed the Coalition up to net zero.
Speaker 1 (05:38):
That the Coalition's gone backwards today.
Speaker 2 (05:42):
One or two Coalition MPs indulged themselves to become commentators,
offering free advice rather than prosecuting the case as to
why the cost of living crisis is Labour's fault. A
cost of living is issue one, two and three in
this campaign. You've heard miss say it's cost of living,
(06:02):
then it's daylight and it's this Prime minister that's causing
the hurt in your household. It's Labour's renewables only energy
policy that sends your power bill through the roof. In
its own budget papers, they say but for the unsustainable
federal and state subsidies, so payments that you make as
(06:23):
tax payers back to yourselves or power prices would be
forty five percent.
Speaker 1 (06:27):
Higher than they are now.
Speaker 2 (06:31):
Labour's emissions obsession will get worse if they're re elected,
particularly if if they're relying on the Greens to survive
in the new parliament. It's Labour's big Australia record numbers
in its immigration policy that's depressing your wages, making housing
unaffordable and clogging up our roads. Again, all of this
(06:53):
will get worse if Labor is sustained by the Greens
in minority government. It's Labour's spending addiction that's stopping the
Reserve Bank from cutting interest rates and that's adding around
fifty thousand dollars a year to the average mortgage. And
that's Peter Darton's clear message. If you want real cost
of living relief, you must change the government.
Speaker 3 (07:16):
This government has made an economic disaster of the last
three years and families, Australian families are paying the price.
And so we will always manage the economy.
Speaker 2 (07:27):
More effectively, he says, You'll get more gas into the system,
He'll end the nuclear ban, you'll make it easier for
young people to get a deposit for the first time,
and he'll cut immigration hard that too, and he'll cut
the petrol tax in half. Now, this is my ninth
election campaign. Is either a staff or a commentator, and
(07:49):
none has been as important as this one for the
future of our country. Labour's policies are destroying our economy,
especially industry, manufacturing and the resources sector, and they're weakening
our society via out of control migration with no emphasis
at all on Australian values. Labour's emissions madness will threaten
(08:10):
our energy security and with that our national security at
a time with the world has not been this uncertain
or unstable in decades. If Labor is re elected, if
this week Prime Minister gets another go, we will be
poorer and more divided than ever before. And that's why
I say, don't I that this election matters as much.
Speaker 1 (08:32):
As it does?
Speaker 2 (08:38):
Right, there's a bit of a reality check there from
polling in the past. Let's go now, though, to Peter Dunton,
who moved into Victoria today for the first time in
the official campaign period.
Speaker 1 (08:47):
He was in the set of Carwell.
Speaker 2 (08:49):
Now that's fairly safe labor territory, but today it was
all about funding road and rail and that big fight
that is now pulled on with state and federal labor.
He wants to cut two one hundred billion dollars. He
won't cut, Sorry, he won't go ahead with Labour's two
hundred billion dollars spend on that much beligned suburban rail loop.
(09:10):
But in that spend was also a billion dollars to
upgrade one only train station in the suburbs of Melbourne.
This is for the new Airport rail line. Dutton's rejecting both.
He says, we'll do something with that train station, but
we're not going to spend a billion.
Speaker 1 (09:26):
Dollars on it.
Speaker 2 (09:27):
We'll scrap the suburban rail loop and he'll put that
extra money.
Speaker 1 (09:31):
It'll stay in Victoria.
Speaker 2 (09:32):
But he'll put that extra money into new roads and
pothole something that's desperately needed.
Speaker 1 (09:37):
I know as a Victorian.
Speaker 2 (09:38):
Let's crossing now to his traveling media pack and speak
to our camera reporter Can Redd and Can welcome. I
say this is big news because I tell you what.
That rail loop in Victoria, the suburban rail loop two
one hundred billion dollars Jesus, been controversial.
Speaker 4 (09:56):
Yeah, and there was a two point two billion dollar
commitment at least as part of that. Peter the Peter Dutton,
as you mentioned, wants to put to other things. He
says that this would never be delivered anyway, so why
is their money going towards it? The Allen government, we
know this was a feature of Daniel Andrews's time as
the premier in Victoria. He had a decade's long vision
of getting the suburban rail loop up. Ever since that
(10:17):
was rolled out, it's been controversial here, Peter Dutton calling
it a cruel hoax, which of course he is also
used to describe Labour's promise on power bills and the
tax cuts, so that's where it ranks in his view
when it comes to Victorian's You mentioned that we were
in the seat of Callwell today. That's up in the
northern suburbs of Melbourne. The local member there for Labour
is retiring, not really one that we're expecting to change hands,
(10:38):
but a little further south in Mkew and some of
those other seats in the outer suburban ring is where
the Coalition is really targeting. There was a slightly lighter
moment in amongst all of this. Peter Bridget McKenzie, the
National Senate Leader, the Shadow Transport spokesman for the smokesperson
for the Coalition. She was there with a big prop,
a big map. We love a prop on a campaign.
There was only one little problem. The map wasn't big
(11:00):
enough for her to show us exactly where we were
standing and the rest of the rail line.
Speaker 5 (11:05):
I managed to get there in the.
Speaker 4 (11:06):
End with her, though eventually go I can see you've
got a prop there, you've got the map here. I
know you how to go at this before can you
just point out where are the set of Call Well?
Exactly where are we on the map at the moment?
Speaker 1 (11:16):
Well, Call Well, where we're we're up here in the north,
So where's the airport?
Speaker 4 (11:20):
So there's the airport on the map.
Speaker 5 (11:21):
Where are we looking?
Speaker 6 (11:22):
You saw Cam, the planes were flying that way when
we were out here before. So Airport's over there, Melbourne's
over there, geelongs over there where I live, Wodonga, way
up the Hume.
Speaker 5 (11:33):
Very good, I got it.
Speaker 1 (11:39):
All right, Cam, I'll over there.
Speaker 2 (11:40):
I suspect you in Melbourne overnight, but we'll see where
you are tomorrow. We'll see if the PM stands next
to the very unpopular Labor premier in Victoria. Let's go
now to the Prime Minister's camp joining us and now
of course from Melbourne too. He's moved there late this afternoon.
I've seen your political reporter Tritty Macintosh.
Speaker 1 (11:57):
I made the point that you've landed back in Victoria.
Speaker 2 (12:01):
It will be the first time he's campaigning here in
the official campaign, like the opposition leader. But she started
off the day in the very marginal seat of Boothby
in South Australia. He then moved into Karrenga MIT. This
is in Victoria, but it's down towards Geelong out on
the surf coast. It's held currently by Labor. This is
the seat of Karenga MIT. We've got Boothby up there
on the screen. But the seat of Karenga, mine's interesting.
(12:24):
My mum lives down that way and there's a challenger
on there against Libby Kocha by a former SAS soldier,
Darcy Dunster, and I think he's really going to take
the fight up to her.
Speaker 1 (12:36):
It feels truly to me.
Speaker 2 (12:39):
But this is about the last couple of days at
least trying to sandbag the seats that Labor currently holds.
Speaker 7 (12:48):
Yeah, Ethony ibneas heniece to soundbag Peter. That's the truth.
He's got a slim majority and he wants to keep it.
He does not want to have to be in a
position of a hung Parliament where he's then going to
have to try and negotiate to get confidence and supply.
We saw that though this morning in Adelaide, the seat
of Boothby, as you say, held by Labor just since
the last election. The Liberals are confident that they can
flip that with the former MP there, Nicole Flint. He
(13:11):
also though on the offensive today he went into Sturt,
the seat that's been blue ribbon Liberal for a long time,
Christopher Pine territory, if you want to put it that way.
But the margin is way for thin just zero point
three percent, three cornered contests there, the Prime Minister just
taking the cameras there for a coffee and then flying
here to Melbourne. The contests in and around Melbourne, as
you know though, are so vital for labor, Peter.
Speaker 1 (13:33):
And that key question is tomorrow do we see.
Speaker 7 (13:36):
Anthony Albanezi alongside just Into Alan the premier here. It's
going to be strange, to be honest, if she's not
there because the last two days he stood shoulder to
shoulder with the labor premier when he's been in that
state capital. We saw it with Peter malanowskis today Roger
Cook in the West. There will be questions if just
Into Allen is not there alongside Anthony Albanezi.
Speaker 1 (13:56):
We don't know yet. We'll find out soon enough.
Speaker 2 (14:00):
Oh, I suspect he'll give you pictures, so we stopped
talking about it. But he won't have a Q and
a why she's there. And I don't think we'll see
her much during the campaign, but he'll do it to
quarterize the commentary from people like us, Trudy, but we'll
we'll see a doct you tomorrow night. Okay, let's get
into some broader political themes. Here we join now and
by Sky's political editor who's also been on the road.
(14:22):
He's down in Melbourne tonight, Andrew clanel Hey, I must say,
made a big win for Sky News the Daily Telly
today confirmation we'll host the first of the leader's debate
in this campaign. It'll be one of our famous People's
Forums Western Sydney next Tuesday night. Cam asked Peter Datton
about this today.
Speaker 1 (14:41):
Here's what he said.
Speaker 4 (14:42):
What's your strategy going into that night and are you
ready to take questions from undecided voters.
Speaker 3 (14:47):
I wrote to the Prime Minister what must have been
a month or so ago, we offered four debates. We
haven't heard back from the Prime minister. The Prime Minister
is now committing to one debate. I think is he
committing to a second debate.
Speaker 1 (15:00):
Or fourth?
Speaker 3 (15:00):
I don't think so.
Speaker 2 (15:04):
Well, you and I know there's a lot of back
and forth that goes on behind the scenes with party
organizations and a whole lot there, but Gauntland, the gauntlet's
being laid down by Peter Dutton. Do you think we'll
get more of them?
Speaker 5 (15:18):
Yeah, well you'd hope so.
Speaker 8 (15:19):
But having said that, ours is the best, So who
really cares?
Speaker 5 (15:22):
The main thing is we've.
Speaker 8 (15:22):
Got one with a daily Telegraph there, Peter, I think
ours is the best ordinary voters, ordinary voters essentially asking
the leaders questions, not just journos like may I get
to do it all the time, don't I?
Speaker 5 (15:37):
And don't they love it? So I think it will
be a big test for both leaders. I think Peter
Dutton's got an advantage there.
Speaker 8 (15:42):
He's got a three year record to attack anthy Aberanezi
last time had various problems in a nine year record
to attack of the previous government.
Speaker 5 (15:51):
So he should be winning that.
Speaker 8 (15:53):
He'd be disappointed if he didn't, and if he does,
maybe it can give him some momentum.
Speaker 5 (15:57):
So it comes at a key time in the care campaign.
Speaker 8 (16:00):
I might also note Peter that Melbourne has given us
by far the best weather.
Speaker 5 (16:06):
Of the campaign. There's just it's a no contest sunning Melbourne.
Great to be here.
Speaker 2 (16:12):
Hey, yeah, I would love to have a People's forum
with a Herald sundown in Victoria because I think that
the anger from Victorians has been pent up for a
long time.
Speaker 1 (16:22):
Do you think that might happen?
Speaker 8 (16:27):
Look, I'd love to see it happen, but there's usually
only one that we get, let's face it, and there
are other networks jostling for it. I think the situation
in Victoria is quite worrying for federal labor. I mean,
if you look at them losing their majority, it only
takes three seats, you'd really expect that to happen here,
Like that's definitely they're definitely losing three seats here. Can
(16:49):
they lose up? Can Peter Dutton went up to six
or seven including Teals. I think it may be possible
because the state government's.
Speaker 5 (16:56):
On the nose.
Speaker 8 (16:57):
Peter Dutton was out at a community crime for him today,
crime is a problem. We know inflation has been a problem,
the perceptions of the state government have been a problem.
And if there is anger in an electorate, ironic really,
given Dan Andrews dominance a couple of years ago, it
would be the Victorian electorate. So yeah, I think he
(17:19):
would face a tougher time here than he might in
Western Sydney. Anthony albinezy, but I'm not suggesting that that
will be particularly easy for him either.
Speaker 2 (17:30):
I'd be interested when you're out and about just to
be looking at the collateral that's out there with campaign teams.
We see him out there on the hustings with Roger Cook.
Of course, I don't think he'll ever go west unless
he stands next to the WA Premier. He was out
there yesterday with Peter Malanowskis. I made the point, yes,
he's probably going to stand next to just Into Alan tomorrow.
(17:51):
That's only to shut us up. I don't think he'll
take questions with her there. But interestingly, we know that
there are campaigns, labor campaigns where they do not want
a visit for the Prime minister. And I also myself
picked up some material in the seat of Boothby. In Boothby,
Malanowskis is on the brochure, not the Prime Minister, and
Luisa Lafrost there in the seat is fighting to hang on.
Speaker 1 (18:15):
What do you make of ease?
Speaker 8 (18:19):
Well, that's extraordinary, isn't it. I mean it's one thing
for the leader not to be on there. That often
happens when the leaders don't have great approval ratings, let's
face it. But to check the premier on there and
to be honest, that's why the Liberals are worried about Stert.
One Liberal source said to me, look, we might win
Boothby and lose Stt because of the Malinowskis factor. So
I guess from Anthony Albanezi's point of view, of course
(18:41):
he's going to play on that and there will be
one time he's in Perth with it.
Speaker 5 (18:45):
Well maybe Roger Cook will be there as well.
Speaker 8 (18:46):
That's his launch. He's decided to launch him Perth again.
That was revealed on the front page of The West
Australian today. I believe it's April thirteen and about a
week and a half and that took.
Speaker 5 (18:57):
Me by surprise.
Speaker 8 (18:57):
I thought he'd do it over east where he needs
to retain seats. The perceptions is going a bit better
in the West, so it is an intriguing decision to
do it again over there.
Speaker 2 (19:08):
Well, he won't be going well over there if he
brings back the nature positive plan as he said it would.
I'll get to that bit a bit later on the show.
Hey the Independent, the seat of Mayo. This is the
old downer seat in South Australia in the Adelaide Hills.
Rebecca Sharky. She has said she'll call Peter Dutton first
in the case of the hung parliament. Now doesn't surprise me.
She needs traditional liberals to keep voting for her to survive.
(19:32):
But all the other tials there're a bit coy on
who they might support. Now, surely they've got to come
clean before they vote.
Speaker 8 (19:43):
Yeah, what's an interesting statement from her, But she knows
very well that if she supported labor, she'd be gone.
As you say, so a lot of self interest at
play there. I think the interesting quandary for the tials
in other seats if they get up, is out of
Liberal and Labor. A lot of them would want a
lot of the voters would want them to go with
(20:04):
the Liberals, but their policies are so different to Peter Dunton's.
Speaker 5 (20:10):
How can that occur?
Speaker 8 (20:11):
But surely if he got to a situation where he
won more seats and the two party preferred, they'd look
pretty silly if they went any other way. So that
would be an intriguing situation. I have to say at
the moment, the polls don't reflect that. The polls the
pole suggests that Anthony Albaneese would get seventy or seventy one.
(20:33):
But we've really got a long way to go, and
momentum matters, particularly over these next couple of weeks, and
that's why Tuesday night at the People's for him is
such an important night in this campaign.
Speaker 2 (20:44):
Peter I made the point of the top of the show, Andrew,
you wouldn't have heard it. But we ended up in
twenty ten with seventy three seats. Labor had seventy two.
Now we lost the negotiation, but part of the reason
we went through that seventeen day dance was there were
two seats held by former Nationals with very conservative electorates
who had to go through the motions. They had to
(21:06):
look like they were negotiating with Tony Abbott. They had
no intention of doing anything to assist him to hold on.
They are absolutely and always were backing in Julia Gilla
and I think that's the dance that some of these
independents may do. The tials will not support the coalition.
Maybe sharky, but the others no way known. What do
(21:27):
you make of what's happened today in Bradfield? It was
revealed on Radio two GB with Ben Fordham, but the
TiAl candidate there banned from a hairdresser over a really
inappropriate sexual comments she made to a young female apprentice.
Now I have to say, if you had said that
or a male Conservative MP had said that they wouldn't
(21:51):
just apologize, you'd have lost your job.
Speaker 1 (21:53):
Is this going to hurt her in the seat?
Speaker 8 (21:55):
Yeah?
Speaker 5 (21:56):
Game over? Yeah?
Speaker 8 (21:58):
I think it will. Yeah, I think it will. I
think the issue is a woman to a woman, you
could have a joke like that, maybe, but not really
to a nineteen year old, to be perfectly frank about it,
that looks completely inappropriate. And so yeah, if that seat,
there's two or three percent in that seat and that
could swing it. I've seen it before. I've seen these
(22:19):
sort of things happen before. Monique Ryan two with a
husband and the sign. If it's a tight race in
a particular seat, people often vote for the candidates in
the seat these days, particularly when they're not inspired by
the major parties.
Speaker 5 (22:32):
That could really that could finish it. We'll see.
Speaker 9 (22:38):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (22:38):
I think the comment's creepy and it's completely out of line,
and I do hope it is well understood by how electric.
Thanks Andrew and Joy Melbourne. All right, let's move today
to the meny of the Reserve Bank and the decision
has predicted to keep the cash rate on hold at
four point one zero percent. Joined me now to discuss
this Judobank's economic advisor, Warren Hogan.
Speaker 1 (22:58):
No surprises here, Warren.
Speaker 2 (22:59):
The Bank noted that conditions are still quite still and
I quote restrictive. There was quite a decent exchange with
the Governor Michelle Bullock after the decision. She went into
some of the reasonings. She made the point it was
a consensus decision. What did you make from her comments today?
Speaker 5 (23:18):
Yeah, good evening, Peter.
Speaker 10 (23:20):
Very very big swing from the sort of decision around
a rate cut six weeks ago. And I think, of
course this is further evidence that there's not a series
of rate cuts coming, which does beg the question about
why they did the rate cut in the first place.
But the restrictiveness that they're identifying our rates are higher
than neutral is all you need to know in terms
(23:44):
of economic management, and that is we are seeing rates
remain elevated above neutral because government policy is propping up inflation.
And if there was a different fiscal strategy then I
think rates would be lower. That's the mess. I think
the political message from this this, even though the RBA
Governor ourself has done everything today to stay out of
(24:05):
the political line of fire.
Speaker 2 (24:10):
And do you think that they would have poured over
the budget and seen there was no strategy there, there
was still out of control spending.
Speaker 1 (24:17):
There was no debt strategy.
Speaker 2 (24:18):
There were deficits as far as the eye can see.
Are they the sort of things that would have been
on the table in today's discussion.
Speaker 10 (24:26):
Well, I think the fact that they were not on
the table speaks volumes. The Governor did actually say pretty
much the budget as it came out was factored into
their forecasts from February, which is to say, record levels
of government spend, record levels of government spending growth outside
of times of crisis. And of course the government had
(24:47):
an opportunity to sort of shift or at least not
its new spending and tax cuts, and they didn't. So
the fact that nothing changed is that message that they're
not helping us bring rates down.
Speaker 1 (25:01):
Gotcha.
Speaker 2 (25:01):
So we warned you we wanted to see some action.
We didn't see it. So we're being forced into this
whole position. Hey, talk to me about the coalition's policy today.
They've made a pledge to shake up home lending rules,
particularly relevant to young Australians. This is about the serviceability
the loan buffer. Currently it's three percent. They say it
should come down to two point five percent. What's your
(25:24):
thoughts here.
Speaker 10 (25:26):
Look, I'm not sure it's going to do much. I mean,
it may let a few more people in. This is
all about having the ability to access a loan. The
reality is these sorts of measures increased demand that only
puts upward pressure on house prices. We know the solution
is that we have to get about building a further
(25:46):
coalition to focus on sort of putting pressure on state
and local governments to increase housing supply.
Speaker 2 (25:55):
We saw a story today that a whole lot of
your economic brethren are concerned in the swag of demands
from the Greens that if they are in a position
to negotiate with the governor in the event of a
hung parliament, their wish list runs to some one hundred
and ten billion. They want to hike taxes on billionaires,
on miners, on so called excessive profits of big corporations.
(26:20):
I have no doubt, Warren, the death duties and all
the other holy grails of the left will also be
on the table too.
Speaker 1 (26:28):
What did you make of this.
Speaker 10 (26:30):
Well, I think this just shows you how out of
touch with economic reality the Greens are. It's just massive
overreach from a party that has no sort of fundamental
understanding of the economy and the consequences. I mean, for
a start, you cannot raise one hundred billion dollars a
year by taxing billionaires, I mean all large corporations. And
(26:50):
I'm all for people paying their share and getting more
money out of particularly global enterprises. But then mobile they
will leave if you tax them too much. You're never
going to raise that kind of money out of them.
And the fact that they're out there trying to put
this forward shows you just how they have no concept
of reality. And of course it's a scary concept to
think that they are going to be potentially governing with
(27:12):
some influence, yes, in the next term of parliament.
Speaker 2 (27:17):
And also underscore that point you made about capital being mobile.
We've already got a corporate tax rate in this country
that's set to be double what it will be when
the cuts come into the United States, which makes us
it completely uncompetitive. Then factor in their cheaper energy, cheaper
labor costs, we're out of the game.
Speaker 1 (27:37):
Just quickly.
Speaker 2 (27:38):
Thursday our time, we're going to see this new announcement
for the President in the.
Speaker 1 (27:42):
US about tariffs.
Speaker 2 (27:44):
There's talk of media bargaining codes our PBS, what are
you hearing.
Speaker 10 (27:51):
Look, it's really unclear. We've got to wait and see
what happens, and even tomorrow we may not get a
full picture of this. But you know, this is a
world that is shifting and it's a world that's clearly
going to be very different and challenging for us, and
that means we need to have our budget in order,
we need to make sure our economy is operating efficiently.
(28:13):
I don't think there's any pending doom for the Australian economy.
We're well placed, but of course we just don't know
what it's going to do to the rest of the world,
and that will eventually affect us. But it is highly uncertain.
This is as uncertain as it gets in terms of
the economic outlook.
Speaker 2 (28:29):
All right, well they were there at costs. We're in, Hogan,
thanks very much. Cos of Mars is joining me. Have
to break his top of mine now I'm a bit
keen to see what he's picking up in focus gripts
in the middle of the campaign. And the other bloke, well,
he can't help himself. Kenny Malcolm Turbull today casting doubt
over Orcus a whole lot more, including how he's going
(28:50):
to vote at the coming election after the break. Welcome
back still the can Tony Abbitt will join as August
comes under attack from one time Liberal leader Malcolm Turnbull.
Now to yesterday's news poll springing labors step.
Speaker 1 (29:08):
We can see it there.
Speaker 2 (29:09):
Already primary vote improving, but across the several poles it's
a bit of a mixed bag, labor either just ahead
or just behind in one pole even even with the coalition.
All of them two are within the margin of era,
which highlights just how tight things are week one in
this election campaign. So how patch you the polls, how
(29:29):
soft the vote and are the margins movie in the
seats that matter? To discuss this and more, Joining me
now Red Bridge director cos Samaris, because welcome to the campaign.
I know you love these things as much as I do.
It's hectic, but we're in the box seat here to
get into some of these numbers. What's your assessment both
of the campaign right now thus farther that the battle
(29:52):
for the narrative, if I can call it that, and
how much the soft vote is in this early.
Speaker 9 (30:01):
Well let's start with a second bit, because the vote
is extremely soft and it still is to this day.
Half of Labour's vote is soft. A third of the
Coalition's vote is soft. And so what's going on right
now with the Poles is the bounce around a bit.
There is there is a skew towards Labor because they
(30:22):
are successfully bringing back some of those voters that they
lost over the last eighteen months to minor parties. There
is some exchange between the two majors, that's there's no
doubt about that, but it ain't significant and it's regionally based.
And then of course the Coalition is losing some votes
to its flanks. Now that will bring that. I think
(30:43):
they'll bring that back, you know, once the campaign is
in full swing in it you can see buttons now
out in the hustings and filling that that gap that
was created over the last few weeks. So I think
it's very much in the margin of error and much
doing play.
Speaker 2 (31:03):
I made the point of the time of the show,
you know, we need a bit of perspective here in
the twenty ten campaign. For the entire year of twenty ten,
and indeed the entire campaign, Abbott was a long long
way behind Gillard.
Speaker 1 (31:17):
He ended up with more seats than Herbert.
Speaker 2 (31:19):
Obviously, we ended up with hung Parliament out of that,
out of the negotiation. Scott Morrison too behind right up
until an including poling day he won. Of course we
know that now, So right now it's about trying to
get that early momentum and keeping it, isn't it.
Speaker 9 (31:35):
Yeah, that's right. And look, I'll make the other point
about how people interpret poles for us, when we talk
to people about our data, it's a diagnostic tool. It's
not a fortune cookie, right, And much of the inter
polling industry makes the really critical mistake of trying to say, well,
this is what the result's going to be, Like, well,
we don't know. Right to your point, in four weeks time,
(31:58):
you and I might be having an absolute different conversation
with regards to the numbers. Yeah, we're still seeing the
sort of volatility out there that should worry both major
parties but particularly incumber governments. That's still there, and it's
there in very big way in Victoria.
Speaker 1 (32:18):
A reality check too.
Speaker 2 (32:19):
You know, I was at the gym this morning and
one of the guys that I talked to there quite
a bit is a trainer. You know, basically it runs
a small business, so is not uninformed, I said, was
I wasn't going to be able to make one of
the days this week. He said, oh, why is that.
I said, well, the elections on mate. He said, oh shit,
have they called it yet? I went, yeah, they have,
And I thought that is such a reminder. You know,
(32:43):
we need deeping this stuff. The real world is only barely.
Speaker 1 (32:46):
Waking up to what's going on.
Speaker 2 (32:49):
Give me a sense of where the groups are, what
people are saying to you in the groups.
Speaker 9 (32:54):
Yeah, and this is the important point you just made.
So when we're surveying people, we are aware that the
people that are completing our surveys are are not the
person you spoke to this morning. People who don't really
care about politics don't engage in political surveys, so you
have to really factor in that skew. And these days
it's skews to the left with online panels. So that
(33:19):
will part that for the moment. I mean, there's a
methodological challenge there which the industry has to always overcome.
Then of course you've got what a voters telling us
in groups where you are able to have and now
and a half conversation with people like the person who
spoke to this morning, and they're basically still in the
same space. They are largely think that the system is
(33:41):
stacked against them. They think that the economy is not
working for them. And you know, I'm talking about largely
people under the age of forty five, you know, particularly
young mums in the our sabers and regions. They're still
quite agnostic about the world around them, as in the
political world around them, and they're not really tuned in yet.
So that's where it's at.
Speaker 2 (34:04):
And what about the younger voters and the point you've made,
I think on social media recently about the trust deficit.
Speaker 9 (34:12):
Yeah, yeah, it's huge. So younger people in this country,
and I think across most of the Western world have
a really big issue with trusting institutions, thinking that the
economy is working for them. And I may say that
younger people are extremely difficult to poll and can be
(34:35):
quite volatile for incomement governments right now, So if there's
a and why was that?
Speaker 1 (34:41):
Because why are they hard to poll? Why are they
hard to poll?
Speaker 9 (34:44):
Explain that you can't get him on the phone. It's impossible,
you know, like they won't answer their phones. And then
if you're trying to get him engaged in political poll
and they're uninterested. They because if their anti establishment, and
this is some of the recesses that we've done, they
think the systems stack to get instant. There are anti establishments,
so sometimes commentators will misconstrue them as being right wing
(35:06):
because they are gravitated to people like Trump or Wilders
in Holland. But at the same time, if you're anti establishment,
you're not going to fill in a polling survey because
you think it's part of the problem, part of the system.
So very difficult.
Speaker 5 (35:24):
Cod to talk to you.
Speaker 1 (35:27):
And also next week going on to talking to you
about this.
Speaker 2 (35:30):
Yeah, next week I on to talk to you about
influencers too, because they are I think the big game
changer in this campaign in a way we haven't seen
at this scale for four twenty twenty five.
Speaker 1 (35:42):
We'll leave it for next week.
Speaker 2 (35:43):
I'll leave it there cos thank you as always. After break,
Tony Aviatt joins me out campaigning today in South Australia
as another former Liberal PM says they's not going to
campaign for the Liberals this election.
Speaker 1 (35:56):
Plus a bit later.
Speaker 2 (35:57):
On yet another bungle for labor around the whole issue
of foreign criminals. A major leguer loophole exposed Welcome back
the farce of Chris Bowen's batteries promise, just twenty in
operation despite the promise of over four hundred and a
(36:18):
spend of two hundred million dollars. But First former Prime
Minister Malcolm Turnbull renewed his criticism of ORCUST today in
an address to the National Press Club in Canberra.
Speaker 11 (36:30):
In recent years, our influence in the region has been
diminished by the perception that we are just a rubber
stamp for Washington.
Speaker 5 (36:36):
I've heard this.
Speaker 11 (36:37):
Directly from leaders and foreign ministers in the region. UCAS
did not help in that regard, as it was seen
in the region as US running back to our former
and current imperial masters.
Speaker 2 (36:49):
Joining me out to discuss this and more from the
Elizabeth RSL Club in South Australia. Former Prime Minister Tony
Abbott well Tony in The Australian Today, spy Boss, our
former Defense Department Chief Ambassador of course to the United States,
Dennis Richardson, he accused Malcolm Turnbull of undermining ORCUS.
Speaker 1 (37:10):
Now what's his real.
Speaker 2 (37:11):
Beef here, Tidy The fact that Malcolm didn't think of
Aucus himself.
Speaker 12 (37:18):
I think that's right. He still wedded to the French
submarine deal and the folly of the French submarine deal
is that it was going to take an existing French
nuclear submarine and spend fifteen years redesigning it and rebuilding
it in Adelaide to give us a sub less operationally
(37:39):
capable than something that exists now. So it was never
a good idea. And thank God for Ugus because August
will give us first of all three and maybe five
Virginia class submarines for America and then we'll get the
successor to the British student class. And I think this
is going to give us the strategic deterrent that we
(38:03):
need in these very difficult times. I just wish the
Orcus subs were coming now and not in ten years time.
Speaker 2 (38:12):
Yeah, and I wish the Prime minister former Prime Minister
decided to voice his concerns earlier than leave it for
the middle of the election campaign. I note that you're
on the election campaign trial today. You were out with
a good friend of this show, former IPA deputy director
Dan Wild. He's a candidate the Liberal set of Spence.
Speaker 1 (38:30):
Now.
Speaker 2 (38:30):
Malcolm Turnbull was asked today would he also be campaigning
for the Liberal Party. He had this to say, are
you planning on campaigning at all for the Liberal Party?
Speaker 11 (38:40):
No, I think it looks no I have no, I'm not.
I'm not campaigning for anyone voting Liberal vote. I'm secret ballot.
Speaker 2 (38:52):
What about the fact you know he was asked the
question will vote for the Liberals and he says a
secret ballot at In fact, he won't even commit to
voting for his former party, sorry, his current party, he says.
Speaker 12 (39:09):
Peter, No former Liberal prime minister should ever be bashful
about who he's voting for. Simple as that.
Speaker 2 (39:20):
All right, let's I'll leave you there to be gracious.
Good on your Tony Abbott. What about and Adam Band
who has come out to say that Israel's to blame
for the latest atrocities committed by Hummas in their crackdown
on the protesters. This is obviously a brave individual in
Gaza who was campaigning against Hummas tortured and kill. It's
(39:43):
all Israel's fault, says Adam Band.
Speaker 1 (39:46):
And surely is disqualifies.
Speaker 2 (39:48):
Him from leading any political party, even the Greens.
Speaker 12 (39:54):
And look, what I think is most appalling is that
the Labor part is still going to give the Greens
their preferences ahead of the Coalition, whereas Peter Darton, to
his credit, is going to preference Labor ahead.
Speaker 1 (40:10):
Of the Greens.
Speaker 12 (40:12):
I mean, this sympathy for her mass that the Greens
have and which sections of the Labor Party is just outrageous,
as shown by the fact that a mass have just
butchered in cold blood at least six of the people
who had the temerity to protest in favor of freedom
and to stop the war.
Speaker 2 (40:33):
I want to ask you about this Chinese spiship of
our coast. The Australians reported the Defense Force has passed
on responsibility for monitoring it to Australian brought a force,
so not our Navy, not other intelligence services.
Speaker 1 (40:47):
It'll be brought a force now.
Speaker 2 (40:49):
The PM, when asked about it this week, has been
pretty timid in his response. He said, well, I'd prefer
it wasn't there. I mean, surely we've got to have
a stronger response to what's happened on our coastline over
the past couple of months.
Speaker 12 (41:05):
There's a couple of problems here, Peter. First, we don't
have enough Navy ships. That's why the Navy's not doing
this job. And second, there's got to be more of
a tit for tat response to these acts of intimidation
from Beijing. Why doesn't our navy do live fire exercises
(41:26):
off the coast of China? Why don't our oceanographic ships
do these sorts of things in the South China Sea.
A serious country does not put up with being bullied
and pushed around, and unfortunately we have been bullied and
pushed around by Beijing under the current government.
Speaker 2 (41:48):
I just want to say tonight, you know there's a
few despondent liberals as the poles have been bouncing around
at the last couple of days starting this campaign, behind
in news poll aheaded another nil or draw it another poll,
desperate as they are level supporters for a change of government.
I'm made the point at the top of the show.
When you were their first time as opposition leader in
twenty ten, you were behind every single day that year,
(42:12):
including a campaign, but one more seats in the race
against Julia Gillard Scott Morrison, similarly one in twenty nineteen,
being behind in the polls the whole time.
Speaker 1 (42:22):
If you could send a message.
Speaker 2 (42:24):
To coalition supporters tonight and candidates, what would it.
Speaker 1 (42:27):
Be, Well, just push on.
Speaker 12 (42:33):
I mean there is a cost of living crisis in
this country, and Anthony Alberizi is to blame because his
government has made it worse. And as far as I
can work out, Peter Dutton has a very simple message.
You'll get more gas into the system, you'll end the
nuclear ban, You'll make it easier for first home buyers
(42:53):
to get a deposit. He'll cut immigration hard. And here's
the beauty. He's game to take fourteen dollars off the
cost of a tank of petrol. Now I've been out
in Spence today. It's the most car dependent seat in
the country. Seventy two percent of the people in this
(43:13):
seat and out of Metropolitan Adelaide use their cars to
go to work. Fifty four percent have two cars, twenty
percent have three cars, ninety eight percent have internal combustion engines.
These are the beneficiaries of a coalition win and I
think it's all there for the taking.
Speaker 1 (43:38):
There you go.
Speaker 2 (43:38):
I know you love to get out on the hustings.
I know you love a campaign, so I'll leave you
to get back to it. In South Australa, Tony Abbitt
thank you after the Rag Labour's let us foreign criminals
blunder class, Roger Cook well, he's gone a bit rogue
with Labor very angry that the nature positive plans are
coming back. If Albanese's reelected, welcome back. Let's bring in
(44:06):
my panel from the campaign trail in Western City, in
the seat of werrowa senior fellow at the Mensies Research Center,
columnists at Australian Nikata and the chief executive at the
Page Institute, Jered Holland. Gents welcome this loophole. I cannot
believe it in relation to foreign criminals. It turns out
that there is no mandatory minimum sentencing. As the bloke
(44:29):
allegedly involved in that shooting over the weekend in Melbourne,
he's back out on bail. He's had five bail releases today.
This is Doneber six. They rush this legislation through Nick.
They've got powers in it that they have never used
and now we find a soft judge can drive a
(44:49):
truck through the legislation.
Speaker 13 (44:54):
It's extremely poor legislation, Peter. And if you remember, as
I do, when it went through the Parliament, it only
went through the Parliament because Peter Dutton insisted that it
did and Labor was shamed into doing it. They didn't
want to do it. And my understanding is actually called
on Peter Dutton's people to help them draft it at
the last minute. It was rushed through. It was not
what Labor wanted to do. They did it because of
(45:16):
the tremendous outcry there was at the time. They have
not made any attempt to improve or to make sure
it's applied properly, and we are seeing the results and
people are very angry.
Speaker 2 (45:29):
Stay on Immigration and the departments involved here, if I
can jured, it's been revealed that Home Affairs automatically registered
a whole in a migration agent that they suspected of
criminal activity and then they dismissed without investigation hundreds of complaints.
Now this is the same area, the same department that
say trust us. We vetted all the three thousand people
(45:53):
that came to Australia from Gaza.
Speaker 1 (45:55):
I don't buy it.
Speaker 14 (46:00):
Exactly right, Peter. As I understand it, less than ten
percent of complaints were actually followed through an investigated and
forty percent of these migration lawyers were suspected of criminal
activity were waived right through due to the way that
the system works. And we've brought in forty thousand new
public servants since labor has taken government and they're clearly
not doing their job, and people are losing trust in
(46:21):
their institutions because the institutions are no longer serving them
in the way they should be.
Speaker 2 (46:27):
Hey, it might have been happy Families Dick when they
stood together just the other day. But Roger Cook, the
Premier in Wa, he's gone rogue now. He's really angry
at the thought that the Prime minister who's made an
announcement is going to bring back those very controversial nature
positive laws.
Speaker 1 (46:43):
He's not stupid, Roger Cook.
Speaker 2 (46:44):
He knows that these laws were really hurt the economy
in Wa. I don't think it's going to be as
friendly when they meet again.
Speaker 13 (46:54):
No, I don't think so. Peter Dutton's onto this.
Speaker 5 (46:56):
Of course.
Speaker 13 (46:57):
He's promised to expand the browse base in thirty days
if he becomes prime minister. You see, this is the
important thing, isn't it, Peter. For the future prosperity of
our country, we need to be developing these sort of
things now. And of course these nature positive laws are
they affect farming, they affect the resource industry. They will
affect gas, So the gas that we desperately need right
(47:19):
now will take even longer in coming if it comes
at all, if these laws go ahead, So you have
a clear choice at this election, I think between a
pro resources, pro prosperity government and one that is deep
in the pockets of the Greens.
Speaker 2 (47:37):
That King clown, Chris barn was out there today, not
a big press conferences, a little bit of social media
announcing or opening formally opening. I think it was one
of those new community batteries. But it just then reminded
us to look into the detail of the project. I mean,
he promised four hundred of them. He's got twenty of
them out there. He's just announced one, so number twenty one.
(48:00):
I'm up there and kicking a two hundred million dollar cost.
Speaker 1 (48:05):
Jeret Peter.
Speaker 14 (48:09):
It's an astronomical cost. And the other thing to remember
is these batteries will only power about one hundred homes
each for two to four hours, and they rely on
the excess energy being generated from solar panels on people's
homes in order to then recharge them again. The fact
is that there is no better peaking fuel then gas
batteries cannot do the job, and there is no better
baseload power source than colon nuclear and the entire strategy
(48:33):
that the government has been running at for the last
couple of years is why power bills continue to rise
and will continue to rise unless we have a really
quick change.
Speaker 2 (48:40):
Of course, Nick, our race Discrimination commissioner, says that linking
the housing shortage, as I do often to the surge
in migration, isn't I quote bile, the bile of racism.
Speaker 1 (48:57):
It's not. It's an economic reality.
Speaker 13 (49:01):
You've heard the expression having to do a man with
a hammer, Everything looks like a nail and I think
if you're the race commissioner, everything looks like racism.
Speaker 5 (49:08):
Of course it's reality, Peter. You can just do the numbers.
Speaker 13 (49:11):
You know, you bring in a million people, every one
of them presumably wants a home to live in. It's
going to put pressure on the housing market. So I
think it is absolute nonsense what he's saying.
Speaker 5 (49:21):
I mean, I'm here in.
Speaker 13 (49:22):
This part of the world and where were people of
saving up going to get a new block of land
which have been made available and they're suffering all the
mortgage stress for that. People naturally want houses and good
on them. But I think that this is just nonsense
from the Race Relations Commissioner, who I Gather is a
labor lawyer from a long time back.
Speaker 1 (49:44):
I'll over there, Gens. Just before we go, Kamala Harris.
Speaker 2 (49:46):
The very Interestingly, she's been paid half a million dollars
despute to real estates on the Gold Coast in a
couple of months time.
Speaker 1 (49:53):
Unbelievable. That's it for me. Cenamo ninited six. Here's Andrew
Peedo Krandland Live on Sky News Australia.
Speaker 2 (00:08):
Good evening, day two of the campaign, at least the
first formal week feels like it's been going rare for
hasn't it? All Right, Let's get into the show. He's
what's coming up tonight on Kredlin. Darton takes on both
Victorian and federal state labor over the two hundred billion
dollar suburban railroad. It's a controversial project in Victoria, in
a state that's drowning in debt.
Speaker 1 (00:27):
Both leaders.
Speaker 2 (00:28):
Tonight too in Melbourne as we cross into the campaign
traveling teams and get you the latest plenty of polling
data out there too. So tonight we've got to bring
in the leading labor polster, cause Samarus to go through
the detail. Plus a little bit of perspective for me
in a moment on exactly where the coalition sits in
this race.
Speaker 1 (00:48):
A bit of.
Speaker 2 (00:48):
History here because trumpst be it's a lot closer than
some would believe. Plus Malcolm Turnbull won't be campaigning for
the Liberals, he says, and he remains coy on who
he's even going to vote for. Well, I'll be joined
by a proud Liberal Tony Abbott. He's out there campaigning,
not afraid to say he's a liberal either, A better
(01:08):
Darton too, laying down the gold feller to the Prime Minister,
challenging him to a series of debates.
Speaker 3 (01:14):
We offered four debates. We haven't heard back from the
Prime minister. The Prime Minister is now committing to one debate.
I think. Is it committing to a second debate or.
Speaker 1 (01:23):
A third or a fourth?
Speaker 3 (01:24):
I don't think so.
Speaker 2 (01:27):
But first, a whole lot of issues I want to
get through tonight, especially now that both leaders have made
their way to Victoria for the first time in many years.
The state will be a key decider in the election
today off the back of various polls, though there's a
lot of analysis and some handbrigging from liberals too. So
right now, let's have some history and perspective, because while
(01:47):
the political class obsess over the polls, the last thing
they should do is let poles drive policy. All that
polls persuade supporters that they can't win. Back in twenty
in my first election as chief of staff to the
opposition leader, Tony Abbott was behind in every poll that year,
(02:08):
but he went on to win more seats to the
twenty ten election than Labor then led by Julia Gillard. Now,
as I often say to people, in that election, we
won the seats, but we lost the negotiation and with
the support of those disreputable former Nationals Oakshott and Windsor,
Gillard then got into bed with the Greens and we
ended up with that infamous hung parliament in twenty nineteen.
(02:33):
Who can forget that Scott Morrison, Well, he too was
behind in every poll that year, but he went on
to win his miracle victory. Other people in the media
love to tell you what they think about the polls. Well,
here's what I know as a campaigner. Polls don't drive results,
its policy and performance. It drives political outcomes. And that's
(02:56):
what coalition candidates and supporters should be focused on right now. Now,
not fretting because the Laatest News polls turned a narrow
Coalition lead into a narrow Labor one.
Speaker 1 (03:08):
Both.
Speaker 2 (03:08):
Of course, this poll is in because this pole is
within the margin of error.
Speaker 1 (03:13):
But let's have a look at the others.
Speaker 2 (03:15):
Resolve, Well, that's got the neck and neck fifty to fifty,
and then there's a freshwater pole that's got them in front.
Speaker 1 (03:22):
Let's go back to the history again.
Speaker 2 (03:23):
A month out from the twenty ten election, not long
after Labor had swapped out Kevin rud for Julia Gillard,
the coalition was behind in News poll forty five fifty
five a fortnight, and then a week before polling day
we were still behind forty eight fifty two. Now at
the time I can report people questioning to me saying,
(03:46):
just how hungry was aver to win?
Speaker 1 (03:47):
Did you really want to win government?
Speaker 2 (03:51):
So he answered them with that remarkable burst of energy,
the forty eight hour continuous campaign that took us right
up to polling day. And it was that blitz that
brought home the soft vote that's won, the working class vote,
Abbots way and the fighter result. As I said, seventy
two Labor, seventy three to the Coalition, and of course
(04:12):
Gilli then did that deal to save her skin with
the cross Bench. And that's the nearest of first term
governments ever come to losing in nearly a century, or
at least so far. Fast forward to twenty nineteen. At
the start of that campaign too, News poll had the
Coalition again behind forty eight to fifty two, and right
up to polling day did it was on polling day
(04:34):
that the final News poll had the Coalition still behind
forty eight point five to fifty one point five.
Speaker 1 (04:41):
Well, it wasn't just use Pole too.
Speaker 2 (04:43):
Every single poll in that campaign had the Coalition behind
for the entire duration. Yugov, Essential, Lipsos and Morgan. It
famously Morrison had his come from behind win, partly because
Labor had its big target tack and retirees and uncosted
emissions reductions policies, but mostly because Morrison was relentlessly focused
(05:07):
on how Labor would hurt your finances and drive up
your power deals. Now, it's worth noting that whenever the
Coalitions fought power prices and made climate change an economic
issue rather than a moral one, it's done well. It's
only when it's effectively me too Labour's climate and emissions policies,
(05:28):
as it did with turbul in twenty sixteen when he
threw away fourteen seats, and again in twenty twenty two
when Scott Morrison signed the Coalition up to net zero.
Speaker 1 (05:38):
That the Coalition's gone backwards today.
Speaker 2 (05:42):
One or two Coalition MPs indulged themselves to become commentators,
offering free advice rather than prosecuting the case as to
why the cost of living crisis is Labour's fault. A
cost of living is issue one, two and three in
this campaign. You've heard miss say it's cost of living,
(06:02):
then it's daylight and it's this Prime minister that's causing
the hurt in your household. It's Labour's renewables only energy
policy that sends your power bill through the roof. In
its own budget papers, they say but for the unsustainable
federal and state subsidies, so payments that you make as
(06:23):
tax payers back to yourselves or power prices would be
forty five percent.
Speaker 1 (06:27):
Higher than they are now.
Speaker 2 (06:31):
Labour's emissions obsession will get worse if they're re elected,
particularly if if they're relying on the Greens to survive
in the new parliament. It's Labour's big Australia record numbers
in its immigration policy that's depressing your wages, making housing
unaffordable and clogging up our roads. Again, all of this
(06:53):
will get worse if Labor is sustained by the Greens
in minority government. It's Labour's spending addiction that's stopping the
Reserve Bank from cutting interest rates and that's adding around
fifty thousand dollars a year to the average mortgage. And
that's Peter Darton's clear message. If you want real cost
of living relief, you must change the government.
Speaker 3 (07:16):
This government has made an economic disaster of the last
three years and families, Australian families are paying the price.
And so we will always manage the economy.
Speaker 2 (07:27):
More effectively, he says, You'll get more gas into the system,
He'll end the nuclear ban, you'll make it easier for
young people to get a deposit for the first time,
and he'll cut immigration hard that too, and he'll cut
the petrol tax in half. Now, this is my ninth
election campaign. Is either a staff or a commentator, and
(07:49):
none has been as important as this one for the
future of our country. Labour's policies are destroying our economy,
especially industry, manufacturing and the resources sector, and they're weakening
our society via out of control migration with no emphasis
at all on Australian values. Labour's emissions madness will threaten
(08:10):
our energy security and with that our national security at
a time with the world has not been this uncertain
or unstable in decades. If Labor is re elected, if
this week Prime Minister gets another go, we will be
poorer and more divided than ever before. And that's why
I say, don't I that this election matters as much.
Speaker 1 (08:32):
As it does?
Speaker 2 (08:38):
Right, there's a bit of a reality check there from
polling in the past. Let's go now, though, to Peter Dunton,
who moved into Victoria today for the first time in
the official campaign period.
Speaker 1 (08:47):
He was in the set of Carwell.
Speaker 2 (08:49):
Now that's fairly safe labor territory, but today it was
all about funding road and rail and that big fight
that is now pulled on with state and federal labor.
He wants to cut two one hundred billion dollars. He
won't cut, Sorry, he won't go ahead with Labour's two
hundred billion dollars spend on that much beligned suburban rail loop.
(09:10):
But in that spend was also a billion dollars to
upgrade one only train station in the suburbs of Melbourne.
This is for the new Airport rail line. Dutton's rejecting both.
He says, we'll do something with that train station, but
we're not going to spend a billion.
Speaker 1 (09:26):
Dollars on it.
Speaker 2 (09:27):
We'll scrap the suburban rail loop and he'll put that
extra money.
Speaker 1 (09:31):
It'll stay in Victoria.
Speaker 2 (09:32):
But he'll put that extra money into new roads and
pothole something that's desperately needed.
Speaker 1 (09:37):
I know as a Victorian.
Speaker 2 (09:38):
Let's crossing now to his traveling media pack and speak
to our camera reporter Can Redd and Can welcome. I
say this is big news because I tell you what.
That rail loop in Victoria, the suburban rail loop two
one hundred billion dollars Jesus, been controversial.
Speaker 4 (09:56):
Yeah, and there was a two point two billion dollar
commitment at least as part of that. Peter the Peter Dutton,
as you mentioned, wants to put to other things. He
says that this would never be delivered anyway, so why
is their money going towards it? The Allen government, we
know this was a feature of Daniel Andrews's time as
the premier in Victoria. He had a decade's long vision
of getting the suburban rail loop up. Ever since that
(10:17):
was rolled out, it's been controversial here, Peter Dutton calling
it a cruel hoax, which of course he is also
used to describe Labour's promise on power bills and the
tax cuts, so that's where it ranks in his view
when it comes to Victorian's You mentioned that we were
in the seat of Callwell today. That's up in the
northern suburbs of Melbourne. The local member there for Labour
is retiring, not really one that we're expecting to change hands,
(10:38):
but a little further south in Mkew and some of
those other seats in the outer suburban ring is where
the Coalition is really targeting. There was a slightly lighter
moment in amongst all of this. Peter Bridget McKenzie, the
National Senate Leader, the Shadow Transport spokesman for the smokesperson
for the Coalition. She was there with a big prop,
a big map. We love a prop on a campaign.
There was only one little problem. The map wasn't big
(11:00):
enough for her to show us exactly where we were
standing and the rest of the rail line.
Speaker 5 (11:05):
I managed to get there in the.
Speaker 4 (11:06):
End with her, though eventually go I can see you've
got a prop there, you've got the map here. I
know you how to go at this before can you
just point out where are the set of Call Well?
Exactly where are we on the map at the moment?
Speaker 1 (11:16):
Well, Call Well, where we're we're up here in the north,
So where's the airport?
Speaker 4 (11:20):
So there's the airport on the map.
Speaker 5 (11:21):
Where are we looking?
Speaker 6 (11:22):
You saw Cam, the planes were flying that way when
we were out here before. So Airport's over there, Melbourne's
over there, geelongs over there where I live, Wodonga, way
up the Hume.
Speaker 5 (11:33):
Very good, I got it.
Speaker 1 (11:39):
All right, Cam, I'll over there.
Speaker 2 (11:40):
I suspect you in Melbourne overnight, but we'll see where
you are tomorrow. We'll see if the PM stands next
to the very unpopular Labor premier in Victoria. Let's go
now to the Prime Minister's camp joining us and now
of course from Melbourne too. He's moved there late this afternoon.
I've seen your political reporter Tritty Macintosh.
Speaker 1 (11:57):
I made the point that you've landed back in Victoria.
Speaker 2 (12:01):
It will be the first time he's campaigning here in
the official campaign, like the opposition leader. But she started
off the day in the very marginal seat of Boothby
in South Australia. He then moved into Karrenga MIT. This
is in Victoria, but it's down towards Geelong out on
the surf coast. It's held currently by Labor. This is
the seat of Karenga MIT. We've got Boothby up there
on the screen. But the seat of Karenga, mine's interesting.
(12:24):
My mum lives down that way and there's a challenger
on there against Libby Kocha by a former SAS soldier,
Darcy Dunster, and I think he's really going to take
the fight up to her.
Speaker 1 (12:36):
It feels truly to me.
Speaker 2 (12:39):
But this is about the last couple of days at
least trying to sandbag the seats that Labor currently holds.
Speaker 7 (12:48):
Yeah, Ethony ibneas heniece to soundbag Peter. That's the truth.
He's got a slim majority and he wants to keep it.
He does not want to have to be in a
position of a hung Parliament where he's then going to
have to try and negotiate to get confidence and supply.
We saw that though this morning in Adelaide, the seat
of Boothby, as you say, held by Labor just since
the last election. The Liberals are confident that they can
flip that with the former MP there, Nicole Flint. He
(13:11):
also though on the offensive today he went into Sturt,
the seat that's been blue ribbon Liberal for a long time,
Christopher Pine territory, if you want to put it that way.
But the margin is way for thin just zero point
three percent, three cornered contests there, the Prime Minister just
taking the cameras there for a coffee and then flying
here to Melbourne. The contests in and around Melbourne, as
you know though, are so vital for labor, Peter.
Speaker 1 (13:33):
And that key question is tomorrow do we see.
Speaker 7 (13:36):
Anthony Albanezi alongside just Into Alan the premier here. It's
going to be strange, to be honest, if she's not
there because the last two days he stood shoulder to
shoulder with the labor premier when he's been in that
state capital. We saw it with Peter malanowskis today Roger
Cook in the West. There will be questions if just
Into Allen is not there alongside Anthony Albanezi.
Speaker 1 (13:56):
We don't know yet. We'll find out soon enough.
Speaker 2 (14:00):
Oh, I suspect he'll give you pictures, so we stopped
talking about it. But he won't have a Q and
a why she's there. And I don't think we'll see
her much during the campaign, but he'll do it to
quarterize the commentary from people like us, Trudy, but we'll
we'll see a doct you tomorrow night. Okay, let's get
into some broader political themes. Here we join now and
by Sky's political editor who's also been on the road.
(14:22):
He's down in Melbourne tonight, Andrew clanel Hey, I must say,
made a big win for Sky News the Daily Telly
today confirmation we'll host the first of the leader's debate
in this campaign. It'll be one of our famous People's
Forums Western Sydney next Tuesday night. Cam asked Peter Datton
about this today.
Speaker 1 (14:41):
Here's what he said.
Speaker 4 (14:42):
What's your strategy going into that night and are you
ready to take questions from undecided voters.
Speaker 3 (14:47):
I wrote to the Prime Minister what must have been
a month or so ago, we offered four debates. We
haven't heard back from the Prime minister. The Prime Minister
is now committing to one debate. I think is he
committing to a second debate.
Speaker 1 (15:00):
Or fourth?
Speaker 3 (15:00):
I don't think so.
Speaker 2 (15:04):
Well, you and I know there's a lot of back
and forth that goes on behind the scenes with party
organizations and a whole lot there, but Gauntland, the gauntlet's
being laid down by Peter Dutton. Do you think we'll
get more of them?
Speaker 5 (15:18):
Yeah, well you'd hope so.
Speaker 8 (15:19):
But having said that, ours is the best, So who
really cares?
Speaker 5 (15:22):
The main thing is we've.
Speaker 8 (15:22):
Got one with a daily Telegraph there, Peter, I think
ours is the best ordinary voters, ordinary voters essentially asking
the leaders questions, not just journos like may I get
to do it all the time, don't I?
Speaker 5 (15:37):
And don't they love it? So I think it will
be a big test for both leaders. I think Peter
Dutton's got an advantage there.
Speaker 8 (15:42):
He's got a three year record to attack anthy Aberanezi
last time had various problems in a nine year record
to attack of the previous government.
Speaker 5 (15:51):
So he should be winning that.
Speaker 8 (15:53):
He'd be disappointed if he didn't, and if he does,
maybe it can give him some momentum.
Speaker 5 (15:57):
So it comes at a key time in the care campaign.
Speaker 8 (16:00):
I might also note Peter that Melbourne has given us
by far the best weather.
Speaker 5 (16:06):
Of the campaign. There's just it's a no contest sunning Melbourne.
Great to be here.
Speaker 2 (16:12):
Hey, yeah, I would love to have a People's forum
with a Herald sundown in Victoria because I think that
the anger from Victorians has been pent up for a
long time.
Speaker 1 (16:22):
Do you think that might happen?
Speaker 8 (16:27):
Look, I'd love to see it happen, but there's usually
only one that we get, let's face it, and there
are other networks jostling for it. I think the situation
in Victoria is quite worrying for federal labor. I mean,
if you look at them losing their majority, it only
takes three seats, you'd really expect that to happen here,
Like that's definitely they're definitely losing three seats here. Can
(16:49):
they lose up? Can Peter Dutton went up to six
or seven including Teals. I think it may be possible
because the state government's.
Speaker 5 (16:56):
On the nose.
Speaker 8 (16:57):
Peter Dutton was out at a community crime for him today,
crime is a problem. We know inflation has been a problem,
the perceptions of the state government have been a problem.
And if there is anger in an electorate, ironic really,
given Dan Andrews dominance a couple of years ago, it
would be the Victorian electorate. So yeah, I think he
(17:19):
would face a tougher time here than he might in
Western Sydney. Anthony albinezy, but I'm not suggesting that that
will be particularly easy for him either.
Speaker 2 (17:30):
I'd be interested when you're out and about just to
be looking at the collateral that's out there with campaign teams.
We see him out there on the hustings with Roger Cook.
Of course, I don't think he'll ever go west unless
he stands next to the WA Premier. He was out
there yesterday with Peter Malanowskis. I made the point, yes,
he's probably going to stand next to just Into Alan tomorrow.
(17:51):
That's only to shut us up. I don't think he'll
take questions with her there. But interestingly, we know that
there are campaigns, labor campaigns where they do not want
a visit for the Prime minister. And I also myself
picked up some material in the seat of Boothby. In Boothby,
Malanowskis is on the brochure, not the Prime Minister, and
Luisa Lafrost there in the seat is fighting to hang on.
Speaker 1 (18:15):
What do you make of ease?
Speaker 8 (18:19):
Well, that's extraordinary, isn't it. I mean it's one thing
for the leader not to be on there. That often
happens when the leaders don't have great approval ratings, let's
face it. But to check the premier on there and
to be honest, that's why the Liberals are worried about Stert.
One Liberal source said to me, look, we might win
Boothby and lose Stt because of the Malinowskis factor. So
I guess from Anthony Albanezi's point of view, of course
(18:41):
he's going to play on that and there will be
one time he's in Perth with it.
Speaker 5 (18:45):
Well maybe Roger Cook will be there as well.
Speaker 8 (18:46):
That's his launch. He's decided to launch him Perth again.
That was revealed on the front page of The West
Australian today. I believe it's April thirteen and about a
week and a half and that took.
Speaker 5 (18:57):
Me by surprise.
Speaker 8 (18:57):
I thought he'd do it over east where he needs
to retain seats. The perceptions is going a bit better
in the West, so it is an intriguing decision to
do it again over there.
Speaker 2 (19:08):
Well, he won't be going well over there if he
brings back the nature positive plan as he said it would.
I'll get to that bit a bit later on the show.
Hey the Independent, the seat of Mayo. This is the
old downer seat in South Australia in the Adelaide Hills.
Rebecca Sharky. She has said she'll call Peter Dutton first
in the case of the hung parliament. Now doesn't surprise me.
She needs traditional liberals to keep voting for her to survive.
(19:32):
But all the other tials there're a bit coy on
who they might support. Now, surely they've got to come
clean before they vote.
Speaker 8 (19:43):
Yeah, what's an interesting statement from her, But she knows
very well that if she supported labor, she'd be gone.
As you say, so a lot of self interest at
play there. I think the interesting quandary for the tials
in other seats if they get up, is out of
Liberal and Labor. A lot of them would want a
lot of the voters would want them to go with
(20:04):
the Liberals, but their policies are so different to Peter Dunton's.
Speaker 5 (20:10):
How can that occur?
Speaker 8 (20:11):
But surely if he got to a situation where he
won more seats and the two party preferred, they'd look
pretty silly if they went any other way. So that
would be an intriguing situation. I have to say at
the moment, the polls don't reflect that. The polls the
pole suggests that Anthony Albaneese would get seventy or seventy one.
(20:33):
But we've really got a long way to go, and
momentum matters, particularly over these next couple of weeks, and
that's why Tuesday night at the People's for him is
such an important night in this campaign.
Speaker 2 (20:44):
Peter I made the point of the top of the show, Andrew,
you wouldn't have heard it. But we ended up in
twenty ten with seventy three seats. Labor had seventy two.
Now we lost the negotiation, but part of the reason
we went through that seventeen day dance was there were
two seats held by former Nationals with very conservative electorates
who had to go through the motions. They had to
(21:06):
look like they were negotiating with Tony Abbott. They had
no intention of doing anything to assist him to hold on.
They are absolutely and always were backing in Julia Gilla
and I think that's the dance that some of these
independents may do. The tials will not support the coalition.
Maybe sharky, but the others no way known. What do
(21:27):
you make of what's happened today in Bradfield? It was
revealed on Radio two GB with Ben Fordham, but the
TiAl candidate there banned from a hairdresser over a really
inappropriate sexual comments she made to a young female apprentice.
Now I have to say, if you had said that
or a male Conservative MP had said that they wouldn't
(21:51):
just apologize, you'd have lost your job.
Speaker 1 (21:53):
Is this going to hurt her in the seat?
Speaker 8 (21:55):
Yeah?
Speaker 5 (21:56):
Game over? Yeah?
Speaker 8 (21:58):
I think it will. Yeah, I think it will. I
think the issue is a woman to a woman, you
could have a joke like that, maybe, but not really
to a nineteen year old, to be perfectly frank about it,
that looks completely inappropriate. And so yeah, if that seat,
there's two or three percent in that seat and that
could swing it. I've seen it before. I've seen these
(22:19):
sort of things happen before. Monique Ryan two with a
husband and the sign. If it's a tight race in
a particular seat, people often vote for the candidates in
the seat these days, particularly when they're not inspired by
the major parties.
Speaker 5 (22:32):
That could really that could finish it. We'll see.
Speaker 9 (22:38):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (22:38):
I think the comment's creepy and it's completely out of line,
and I do hope it is well understood by how electric.
Thanks Andrew and Joy Melbourne. All right, let's move today
to the meny of the Reserve Bank and the decision
has predicted to keep the cash rate on hold at
four point one zero percent. Joined me now to discuss
this Judobank's economic advisor, Warren Hogan.
Speaker 1 (22:58):
No surprises here, Warren.
Speaker 2 (22:59):
The Bank noted that conditions are still quite still and
I quote restrictive. There was quite a decent exchange with
the Governor Michelle Bullock after the decision. She went into
some of the reasonings. She made the point it was
a consensus decision. What did you make from her comments today?
Speaker 5 (23:18):
Yeah, good evening, Peter.
Speaker 10 (23:20):
Very very big swing from the sort of decision around
a rate cut six weeks ago. And I think, of
course this is further evidence that there's not a series
of rate cuts coming, which does beg the question about
why they did the rate cut in the first place.
But the restrictiveness that they're identifying our rates are higher
than neutral is all you need to know in terms
(23:44):
of economic management, and that is we are seeing rates
remain elevated above neutral because government policy is propping up inflation.
And if there was a different fiscal strategy then I
think rates would be lower. That's the mess. I think
the political message from this this, even though the RBA
Governor ourself has done everything today to stay out of
(24:05):
the political line of fire.
Speaker 2 (24:10):
And do you think that they would have poured over
the budget and seen there was no strategy there, there
was still out of control spending.
Speaker 1 (24:17):
There was no debt strategy.
Speaker 2 (24:18):
There were deficits as far as the eye can see.
Are they the sort of things that would have been
on the table in today's discussion.
Speaker 10 (24:26):
Well, I think the fact that they were not on
the table speaks volumes. The Governor did actually say pretty
much the budget as it came out was factored into
their forecasts from February, which is to say, record levels
of government spend, record levels of government spending growth outside
of times of crisis. And of course the government had
(24:47):
an opportunity to sort of shift or at least not
its new spending and tax cuts, and they didn't. So
the fact that nothing changed is that message that they're
not helping us bring rates down.
Speaker 1 (25:01):
Gotcha.
Speaker 2 (25:01):
So we warned you we wanted to see some action.
We didn't see it. So we're being forced into this
whole position. Hey, talk to me about the coalition's policy today.
They've made a pledge to shake up home lending rules,
particularly relevant to young Australians. This is about the serviceability
the loan buffer. Currently it's three percent. They say it
should come down to two point five percent. What's your
(25:24):
thoughts here.
Speaker 10 (25:26):
Look, I'm not sure it's going to do much. I mean,
it may let a few more people in. This is
all about having the ability to access a loan. The
reality is these sorts of measures increased demand that only
puts upward pressure on house prices. We know the solution
is that we have to get about building a further
(25:46):
coalition to focus on sort of putting pressure on state
and local governments to increase housing supply.
Speaker 2 (25:55):
We saw a story today that a whole lot of
your economic brethren are concerned in the swag of demands
from the Greens that if they are in a position
to negotiate with the governor in the event of a
hung parliament, their wish list runs to some one hundred
and ten billion. They want to hike taxes on billionaires,
on miners, on so called excessive profits of big corporations.
(26:20):
I have no doubt, Warren, the death duties and all
the other holy grails of the left will also be
on the table too.
Speaker 1 (26:28):
What did you make of this.
Speaker 10 (26:30):
Well, I think this just shows you how out of
touch with economic reality the Greens are. It's just massive
overreach from a party that has no sort of fundamental
understanding of the economy and the consequences. I mean, for
a start, you cannot raise one hundred billion dollars a
year by taxing billionaires, I mean all large corporations. And
(26:50):
I'm all for people paying their share and getting more
money out of particularly global enterprises. But then mobile they
will leave if you tax them too much. You're never
going to raise that kind of money out of them.
And the fact that they're out there trying to put
this forward shows you just how they have no concept
of reality. And of course it's a scary concept to
think that they are going to be potentially governing with
(27:12):
some influence, yes, in the next term of parliament.
Speaker 2 (27:17):
And also underscore that point you made about capital being mobile.
We've already got a corporate tax rate in this country
that's set to be double what it will be when
the cuts come into the United States, which makes us
it completely uncompetitive. Then factor in their cheaper energy, cheaper
labor costs, we're out of the game.
Speaker 1 (27:37):
Just quickly.
Speaker 2 (27:38):
Thursday our time, we're going to see this new announcement
for the President in the.
Speaker 1 (27:42):
US about tariffs.
Speaker 2 (27:44):
There's talk of media bargaining codes our PBS, what are
you hearing.
Speaker 10 (27:51):
Look, it's really unclear. We've got to wait and see
what happens, and even tomorrow we may not get a
full picture of this. But you know, this is a
world that is shifting and it's a world that's clearly
going to be very different and challenging for us, and
that means we need to have our budget in order,
we need to make sure our economy is operating efficiently.
(28:13):
I don't think there's any pending doom for the Australian economy.
We're well placed, but of course we just don't know
what it's going to do to the rest of the world,
and that will eventually affect us. But it is highly uncertain.
This is as uncertain as it gets in terms of
the economic outlook.
Speaker 2 (28:29):
All right, well they were there at costs. We're in, Hogan,
thanks very much. Cos of Mars is joining me. Have
to break his top of mine now I'm a bit
keen to see what he's picking up in focus gripts
in the middle of the campaign. And the other bloke, well,
he can't help himself. Kenny Malcolm Turbull today casting doubt
over Orcus a whole lot more, including how he's going
(28:50):
to vote at the coming election after the break. Welcome
back still the can Tony Abbitt will join as August
comes under attack from one time Liberal leader Malcolm Turnbull.
Now to yesterday's news poll springing labors step.
Speaker 1 (29:08):
We can see it there.
Speaker 2 (29:09):
Already primary vote improving, but across the several poles it's
a bit of a mixed bag, labor either just ahead
or just behind in one pole even even with the coalition.
All of them two are within the margin of era,
which highlights just how tight things are week one in
this election campaign. So how patch you the polls, how
(29:29):
soft the vote and are the margins movie in the
seats that matter? To discuss this and more, Joining me
now Red Bridge director cos Samaris, because welcome to the campaign.
I know you love these things as much as I do.
It's hectic, but we're in the box seat here to
get into some of these numbers. What's your assessment both
of the campaign right now thus farther that the battle
(29:52):
for the narrative, if I can call it that, and
how much the soft vote is in this early.
Speaker 9 (30:01):
Well let's start with a second bit, because the vote
is extremely soft and it still is to this day.
Half of Labour's vote is soft. A third of the
Coalition's vote is soft. And so what's going on right
now with the Poles is the bounce around a bit.
There is there is a skew towards Labor because they
(30:22):
are successfully bringing back some of those voters that they
lost over the last eighteen months to minor parties. There
is some exchange between the two majors, that's there's no
doubt about that, but it ain't significant and it's regionally based.
And then of course the Coalition is losing some votes
to its flanks. Now that will bring that. I think
(30:43):
they'll bring that back, you know, once the campaign is
in full swing in it you can see buttons now
out in the hustings and filling that that gap that
was created over the last few weeks. So I think
it's very much in the margin of error and much
doing play.
Speaker 2 (31:03):
I made the point of the time of the show,
you know, we need a bit of perspective here in
the twenty ten campaign. For the entire year of twenty ten,
and indeed the entire campaign, Abbott was a long long
way behind Gillard.
Speaker 1 (31:17):
He ended up with more seats than Herbert.
Speaker 2 (31:19):
Obviously, we ended up with hung Parliament out of that,
out of the negotiation. Scott Morrison too behind right up
until an including poling day he won. Of course we
know that now, So right now it's about trying to
get that early momentum and keeping it, isn't it.
Speaker 9 (31:35):
Yeah, that's right. And look, I'll make the other point
about how people interpret poles for us, when we talk
to people about our data, it's a diagnostic tool. It's
not a fortune cookie, right, And much of the inter
polling industry makes the really critical mistake of trying to say, well,
this is what the result's going to be, Like, well,
we don't know. Right to your point, in four weeks time,
(31:58):
you and I might be having an absolute different conversation
with regards to the numbers. Yeah, we're still seeing the
sort of volatility out there that should worry both major
parties but particularly incumber governments. That's still there, and it's
there in very big way in Victoria.
Speaker 1 (32:18):
A reality check too.
Speaker 2 (32:19):
You know, I was at the gym this morning and
one of the guys that I talked to there quite
a bit is a trainer. You know, basically it runs
a small business, so is not uninformed, I said, was
I wasn't going to be able to make one of
the days this week. He said, oh, why is that.
I said, well, the elections on mate. He said, oh shit,
have they called it yet? I went, yeah, they have,
And I thought that is such a reminder. You know,
(32:43):
we need deeping this stuff. The real world is only barely.
Speaker 1 (32:46):
Waking up to what's going on.
Speaker 2 (32:49):
Give me a sense of where the groups are, what
people are saying to you in the groups.
Speaker 9 (32:54):
Yeah, and this is the important point you just made.
So when we're surveying people, we are aware that the
people that are completing our surveys are are not the
person you spoke to this morning. People who don't really
care about politics don't engage in political surveys, so you
have to really factor in that skew. And these days
it's skews to the left with online panels. So that
(33:19):
will part that for the moment. I mean, there's a
methodological challenge there which the industry has to always overcome.
Then of course you've got what a voters telling us
in groups where you are able to have and now
and a half conversation with people like the person who
spoke to this morning, and they're basically still in the
same space. They are largely think that the system is
(33:41):
stacked against them. They think that the economy is not
working for them. And you know, I'm talking about largely
people under the age of forty five, you know, particularly
young mums in the our sabers and regions. They're still
quite agnostic about the world around them, as in the
political world around them, and they're not really tuned in yet.
So that's where it's at.
Speaker 2 (34:04):
And what about the younger voters and the point you've made,
I think on social media recently about the trust deficit.
Speaker 9 (34:12):
Yeah, yeah, it's huge. So younger people in this country,
and I think across most of the Western world have
a really big issue with trusting institutions, thinking that the
economy is working for them. And I may say that
younger people are extremely difficult to poll and can be
(34:35):
quite volatile for incomement governments right now, So if there's
a and why was that?
Speaker 1 (34:41):
Because why are they hard to poll? Why are they
hard to poll?
Speaker 9 (34:44):
Explain that you can't get him on the phone. It's impossible,
you know, like they won't answer their phones. And then
if you're trying to get him engaged in political poll
and they're uninterested. They because if their anti establishment, and
this is some of the recesses that we've done, they
think the systems stack to get instant. There are anti establishments,
so sometimes commentators will misconstrue them as being right wing
(35:06):
because they are gravitated to people like Trump or Wilders
in Holland. But at the same time, if you're anti establishment,
you're not going to fill in a polling survey because
you think it's part of the problem, part of the system.
So very difficult.
Speaker 5 (35:24):
Cod to talk to you.
Speaker 1 (35:27):
And also next week going on to talking to you
about this.
Speaker 2 (35:30):
Yeah, next week I on to talk to you about
influencers too, because they are I think the big game
changer in this campaign in a way we haven't seen
at this scale for four twenty twenty five.
Speaker 1 (35:42):
We'll leave it for next week.
Speaker 2 (35:43):
I'll leave it there cos thank you as always. After break,
Tony Aviatt joins me out campaigning today in South Australia
as another former Liberal PM says they's not going to
campaign for the Liberals this election.
Speaker 1 (35:56):
Plus a bit later.
Speaker 2 (35:57):
On yet another bungle for labor around the whole issue
of foreign criminals. A major leguer loophole exposed Welcome back
the farce of Chris Bowen's batteries promise, just twenty in
operation despite the promise of over four hundred and a
(36:18):
spend of two hundred million dollars. But First former Prime
Minister Malcolm Turnbull renewed his criticism of ORCUST today in
an address to the National Press Club in Canberra.
Speaker 11 (36:30):
In recent years, our influence in the region has been
diminished by the perception that we are just a rubber
stamp for Washington.
Speaker 5 (36:36):
I've heard this.
Speaker 11 (36:37):
Directly from leaders and foreign ministers in the region. UCAS
did not help in that regard, as it was seen
in the region as US running back to our former
and current imperial masters.
Speaker 2 (36:49):
Joining me out to discuss this and more from the
Elizabeth RSL Club in South Australia. Former Prime Minister Tony
Abbott well Tony in The Australian Today, spy Boss, our
former Defense Department Chief Ambassador of course to the United States,
Dennis Richardson, he accused Malcolm Turnbull of undermining ORCUS.
Speaker 1 (37:10):
Now what's his real.
Speaker 2 (37:11):
Beef here, Tidy The fact that Malcolm didn't think of
Aucus himself.
Speaker 12 (37:18):
I think that's right. He still wedded to the French
submarine deal and the folly of the French submarine deal
is that it was going to take an existing French
nuclear submarine and spend fifteen years redesigning it and rebuilding
it in Adelaide to give us a sub less operationally
(37:39):
capable than something that exists now. So it was never
a good idea. And thank God for Ugus because August
will give us first of all three and maybe five
Virginia class submarines for America and then we'll get the
successor to the British student class. And I think this
is going to give us the strategic deterrent that we
(38:03):
need in these very difficult times. I just wish the
Orcus subs were coming now and not in ten years time.
Speaker 2 (38:12):
Yeah, and I wish the Prime minister former Prime Minister
decided to voice his concerns earlier than leave it for
the middle of the election campaign. I note that you're
on the election campaign trial today. You were out with
a good friend of this show, former IPA deputy director
Dan Wild. He's a candidate the Liberal set of Spence.
Speaker 1 (38:30):
Now.
Speaker 2 (38:30):
Malcolm Turnbull was asked today would he also be campaigning
for the Liberal Party. He had this to say, are
you planning on campaigning at all for the Liberal Party?
Speaker 11 (38:40):
No, I think it looks no I have no, I'm not.
I'm not campaigning for anyone voting Liberal vote. I'm secret ballot.
Speaker 2 (38:52):
What about the fact you know he was asked the
question will vote for the Liberals and he says a
secret ballot at In fact, he won't even commit to
voting for his former party, sorry, his current party, he says.
Speaker 12 (39:09):
Peter, No former Liberal prime minister should ever be bashful
about who he's voting for. Simple as that.
Speaker 2 (39:20):
All right, let's I'll leave you there to be gracious.
Good on your Tony Abbott. What about and Adam Band
who has come out to say that Israel's to blame
for the latest atrocities committed by Hummas in their crackdown
on the protesters. This is obviously a brave individual in
Gaza who was campaigning against Hummas tortured and kill. It's
(39:43):
all Israel's fault, says Adam Band.
Speaker 1 (39:46):
And surely is disqualifies.
Speaker 2 (39:48):
Him from leading any political party, even the Greens.
Speaker 12 (39:54):
And look, what I think is most appalling is that
the Labor part is still going to give the Greens
their preferences ahead of the Coalition, whereas Peter Darton, to
his credit, is going to preference Labor ahead.
Speaker 1 (40:10):
Of the Greens.
Speaker 12 (40:12):
I mean, this sympathy for her mass that the Greens
have and which sections of the Labor Party is just outrageous,
as shown by the fact that a mass have just
butchered in cold blood at least six of the people
who had the temerity to protest in favor of freedom
and to stop the war.
Speaker 2 (40:33):
I want to ask you about this Chinese spiship of
our coast. The Australians reported the Defense Force has passed
on responsibility for monitoring it to Australian brought a force,
so not our Navy, not other intelligence services.
Speaker 1 (40:47):
It'll be brought a force now.
Speaker 2 (40:49):
The PM, when asked about it this week, has been
pretty timid in his response. He said, well, I'd prefer
it wasn't there. I mean, surely we've got to have
a stronger response to what's happened on our coastline over
the past couple of months.
Speaker 12 (41:05):
There's a couple of problems here, Peter. First, we don't
have enough Navy ships. That's why the Navy's not doing
this job. And second, there's got to be more of
a tit for tat response to these acts of intimidation
from Beijing. Why doesn't our navy do live fire exercises
(41:26):
off the coast of China? Why don't our oceanographic ships
do these sorts of things in the South China Sea.
A serious country does not put up with being bullied
and pushed around, and unfortunately we have been bullied and
pushed around by Beijing under the current government.
Speaker 2 (41:48):
I just want to say tonight, you know there's a
few despondent liberals as the poles have been bouncing around
at the last couple of days starting this campaign, behind
in news poll aheaded another nil or draw it another poll,
desperate as they are level supporters for a change of government.
I'm made the point at the top of the show.
When you were their first time as opposition leader in
twenty ten, you were behind every single day that year,
(42:12):
including a campaign, but one more seats in the race
against Julia Gillard Scott Morrison, similarly one in twenty nineteen,
being behind in the polls the whole time.
Speaker 1 (42:22):
If you could send a message.
Speaker 2 (42:24):
To coalition supporters tonight and candidates, what would it.
Speaker 1 (42:27):
Be, Well, just push on.
Speaker 12 (42:33):
I mean there is a cost of living crisis in
this country, and Anthony Alberizi is to blame because his
government has made it worse. And as far as I
can work out, Peter Dutton has a very simple message.
You'll get more gas into the system, you'll end the
nuclear ban, You'll make it easier for first home buyers
(42:53):
to get a deposit. He'll cut immigration hard. And here's
the beauty. He's game to take fourteen dollars off the
cost of a tank of petrol. Now I've been out
in Spence today. It's the most car dependent seat in
the country. Seventy two percent of the people in this
(43:13):
seat and out of Metropolitan Adelaide use their cars to
go to work. Fifty four percent have two cars, twenty
percent have three cars, ninety eight percent have internal combustion engines.
These are the beneficiaries of a coalition win and I
think it's all there for the taking.
Speaker 1 (43:38):
There you go.
Speaker 2 (43:38):
I know you love to get out on the hustings.
I know you love a campaign, so I'll leave you
to get back to it. In South Australa, Tony Abbitt
thank you after the Rag Labour's let us foreign criminals
blunder class, Roger Cook well, he's gone a bit rogue
with Labor very angry that the nature positive plans are
coming back. If Albanese's reelected, welcome back. Let's bring in
(44:06):
my panel from the campaign trail in Western City, in
the seat of werrowa senior fellow at the Mensies Research Center,
columnists at Australian Nikata and the chief executive at the
Page Institute, Jered Holland. Gents welcome this loophole. I cannot
believe it in relation to foreign criminals. It turns out
that there is no mandatory minimum sentencing. As the bloke
(44:29):
allegedly involved in that shooting over the weekend in Melbourne,
he's back out on bail. He's had five bail releases today.
This is Doneber six. They rush this legislation through Nick.
They've got powers in it that they have never used
and now we find a soft judge can drive a
(44:49):
truck through the legislation.
Speaker 13 (44:54):
It's extremely poor legislation, Peter. And if you remember, as
I do, when it went through the Parliament, it only
went through the Parliament because Peter Dutton insisted that it
did and Labor was shamed into doing it. They didn't
want to do it. And my understanding is actually called
on Peter Dutton's people to help them draft it at
the last minute. It was rushed through. It was not
what Labor wanted to do. They did it because of
(45:16):
the tremendous outcry there was at the time. They have
not made any attempt to improve or to make sure
it's applied properly, and we are seeing the results and
people are very angry.
Speaker 2 (45:29):
Stay on Immigration and the departments involved here, if I
can jured, it's been revealed that Home Affairs automatically registered
a whole in a migration agent that they suspected of
criminal activity and then they dismissed without investigation hundreds of complaints.
Now this is the same area, the same department that
say trust us. We vetted all the three thousand people
(45:53):
that came to Australia from Gaza.
Speaker 1 (45:55):
I don't buy it.
Speaker 14 (46:00):
Exactly right, Peter. As I understand it, less than ten
percent of complaints were actually followed through an investigated and
forty percent of these migration lawyers were suspected of criminal
activity were waived right through due to the way that
the system works. And we've brought in forty thousand new
public servants since labor has taken government and they're clearly
not doing their job, and people are losing trust in
(46:21):
their institutions because the institutions are no longer serving them
in the way they should be.
Speaker 2 (46:27):
Hey, it might have been happy Families Dick when they
stood together just the other day. But Roger Cook, the
Premier in Wa, he's gone rogue now. He's really angry
at the thought that the Prime minister who's made an
announcement is going to bring back those very controversial nature
positive laws.
Speaker 1 (46:43):
He's not stupid, Roger Cook.
Speaker 2 (46:44):
He knows that these laws were really hurt the economy
in Wa. I don't think it's going to be as
friendly when they meet again.
Speaker 13 (46:54):
No, I don't think so. Peter Dutton's onto this.
Speaker 5 (46:56):
Of course.
Speaker 13 (46:57):
He's promised to expand the browse base in thirty days
if he becomes prime minister. You see, this is the
important thing, isn't it, Peter. For the future prosperity of
our country, we need to be developing these sort of
things now. And of course these nature positive laws are
they affect farming, they affect the resource industry. They will
affect gas, So the gas that we desperately need right
(47:19):
now will take even longer in coming if it comes
at all, if these laws go ahead, So you have
a clear choice at this election, I think between a
pro resources, pro prosperity government and one that is deep
in the pockets of the Greens.
Speaker 2 (47:37):
That King clown, Chris barn was out there today, not
a big press conferences, a little bit of social media
announcing or opening formally opening. I think it was one
of those new community batteries. But it just then reminded
us to look into the detail of the project. I mean,
he promised four hundred of them. He's got twenty of
them out there. He's just announced one, so number twenty one.
(48:00):
I'm up there and kicking a two hundred million dollar cost.
Speaker 1 (48:05):
Jeret Peter.
Speaker 14 (48:09):
It's an astronomical cost. And the other thing to remember
is these batteries will only power about one hundred homes
each for two to four hours, and they rely on
the excess energy being generated from solar panels on people's
homes in order to then recharge them again. The fact
is that there is no better peaking fuel then gas
batteries cannot do the job, and there is no better
baseload power source than colon nuclear and the entire strategy
(48:33):
that the government has been running at for the last
couple of years is why power bills continue to rise
and will continue to rise unless we have a really
quick change.
Speaker 2 (48:40):
Of course, Nick, our race Discrimination commissioner, says that linking
the housing shortage, as I do often to the surge
in migration, isn't I quote bile, the bile of racism.
Speaker 1 (48:57):
It's not. It's an economic reality.
Speaker 13 (49:01):
You've heard the expression having to do a man with
a hammer, Everything looks like a nail and I think
if you're the race commissioner, everything looks like racism.
Speaker 5 (49:08):
Of course it's reality, Peter. You can just do the numbers.
Speaker 13 (49:11):
You know, you bring in a million people, every one
of them presumably wants a home to live in. It's
going to put pressure on the housing market. So I
think it is absolute nonsense what he's saying.
Speaker 5 (49:21):
I mean, I'm here in.
Speaker 13 (49:22):
This part of the world and where were people of
saving up going to get a new block of land
which have been made available and they're suffering all the
mortgage stress for that. People naturally want houses and good
on them. But I think that this is just nonsense
from the Race Relations Commissioner, who I Gather is a
labor lawyer from a long time back.
Speaker 1 (49:44):
I'll over there, Gens. Just before we go, Kamala Harris.
Speaker 2 (49:46):
The very Interestingly, she's been paid half a million dollars
despute to real estates on the Gold Coast in a
couple of months time.
Speaker 1 (49:53):
Unbelievable. That's it for me. Cenamo ninited six. Here's Andrew
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