Welcome to a Christmas like no other, where I wrestle with the absurdities of modern finance and the strange beauty of human existence. From the quiet shores of St. Bart's, and it’s a quiet one for sure, Christmas morning and i’m about to post this to you all. There’s a cool macro economic essay in there somewhere. I wanted to get something, anything out there for this holiday season; I hope you can forgive the heavy breathing…
This is a meditation on what it means to live in a world where financial systems are warped mirrors of reality. Why does the U.S. economy continue to thrive against the odds? What does it mean when a stock doubles in a month, only to face existential doubt the next? Are we all, prisoners of a system that was never truly rational to begin with?
I reflect on moments from my own career, like the time I wagered against the optimism of Nokia in 1999 or found myself apologizing to a Carphone Warehouse magnate, my words echoing through the Mayfair offices as traders placed bets on how many times I’d say “sorry.”
But this episode is mostly about life. About finding meaning in the noise, about letting go of the need for answers, and embracing the simple act of questioning.
So, as 2024 fades into memory, join me in this moment of quiet reflection. Let’s step away from the screens, the data, the endless rush to predict the unpredictable. Let’s sit with the questions, about markets, about ourselves, and see what they reveal.
Because, as I sit here on a stunning Christmas day, staring at the endless blue of the Caribbean Sea, I'm reminded, that you and me, we don't have all the answers. But we've got really good questions. What happens when the Chinese stop buying US risk capital? Does the global stock market music stop?
These are THE questions for today. But they're questions worth holding onto as we head into the new year. Answers that will reveal themselves when they're good and damned ready to reveal.
So, Good luck, my brothers and sisters.
The spirituality of curiosity.
I leave it for you to decide.
Hugh
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