November 9, 2022 • 49 mins
Jeremy Hobson takes calls from around the country with Mike Noble, the Chief of Research and Managing Partner of OH Predictive Insights, Emory University professor of political science Dr. Andra Gillespie and DJ Anthony Valadez. The topic: What do the election results mean and what do they say about the country?
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Speaker 1 (00:05):
Welcome to the Middle of Jeremy Hobson Live this evening
from KJAZZ in Phoenix, Arizona. This is the last of
our four live election specials, and we'll talk a bit
later about what happens with the Middle going forward. But
first let me bring in our house, DJ Anthony valadez
Hi Anthony, Hey, Jeremy, how's it going. It's going very well.
How are you. It's feeling really good at busy night
(00:26):
last night, but it's so great to be back here today. Yeah,
it didn't get a lot of sleep plus night, but
it's good that we were in Arizona, where you know,
the election results come in a bit earlier than they
do when you're further east in the country. You get
to go to bed slightly earlier. But we still don't
know in this state the winner of the Senate race.
That could determine the balance of power in Washington. That
(00:47):
is the power of the Middle. And I have to
tell you there has been so much response in terms
of the calls we've been getting all across the country
At eight four four four Middle last week, as you know,
we were in Kansas City. We asked what is an
area where you disagree with the political party that you
affiliate with, and listen to some of the calls we
got that didn't make it on the air. Hi, my
(01:09):
name is David Brossard. I'm out of Kansas. Hi. I'm
Dan Brashears. I am in Hot Springs, Arkansas. My name
is Katherine Bowman and I live in Columbia, Missouri. I
am a Republican and I have been all my life,
but for me, I no longer trust most of the
members of the Republican part of the government or voting
for them. I have watched the Republican Party evolved. So
(01:33):
I am a Democrat rare in Arkansas and pretty much
Democrat on almost all social issues, except I do have
a hard time with I can't not think about what
I believe to be the life of an unborn child.
And my issue is with my party, Republicans, refusing to
view things through a systemic lens, and it really leads
(01:56):
to some detriments when it comes to just talking about
policy in general. That's where I'm coming from. Thank you,
Thank you very much. Again. We are listening to all
our voicemails. If you can't get through at eight four
four four Middle because the lines are jammed, just leave
a message for us. Okay, here's what we're asking this hour.
What do the election results mean for you and your community?
(02:18):
And what do you hope can be accomplished? Anthony, what
is our number? The number is eight four four four
six four three three five three threats eight four four
four Middle, and remember, as we have this conversation, I
want to hear from you, whatever your point of view.
There's no condescension here. We're going to have respect for
one another and have a civil conversation even when we disagree.
Let's bring in our guests. Joining me in the studio
(02:41):
is Mike Noble, chief of research at OH Predictive Insights,
a nonpartisan polling firm here in Arizona. Mike, thank you
for joining us. Jeremy, thanks for having me well. And
is it fair to say, by the way, that the
polls were wrong yet again, as a pollster in attendance here, No,
absolutely not. Not only that the polls are actually incredibly accurate.
You look at the States of Georgia which said it
(03:01):
is gonna be incredibly tight race. Not only is it
forty nine forty nine is going to runoff Federman slide
edge in Pennsylvania, which we saw there tight in Nevada
and Arizona, and as we're seeing right now, the polls
are very much spot on. So it's a good year
for polsters, all right. We're also joined from Atlanta, Georgia,
by Emory University political scientist Andrew Gillespie. Andrew, welcome to you.
(03:24):
And it's fair to say you're also in a state
that could determine the balance of power when the Senate
runoff happens next month. But were you surprised by the
results overall across the country? I mean, I think all
of us are still waiting to see what the final
House races look like, to see whether or not Republicans
gained the predicted number of seats. We have seen some
(03:45):
surprises in some of these Senate races. I don't think
anybody could have predicted that Lauren Bober would be behind
seventy three votes right now, congresswoman from Colorado, very far
right congresswoman as well, very very far right. And so
you know, there's certainly, you know, have been some things
that we have seen before. But the things that I
am not surprised by our things that were perhaps discussed
differently in the press, and so I think there was
(04:07):
a lot of hype around the red Wave, and you know,
a lot of that was just hype, right, And it
was a lot of people just trying to fill airspace
to talk about the horse race. And we probably could
have done a little bit better not talking about that
as much as we did. Well, let's see what our
callers think about what happened and what it means for them.
Once again, our number is eight four four four Middle.
Our first call is Mary in Lexington, Kentucky. Mary, Welcome
(04:31):
to the Middle. Hello, and thanks for having me. Well,
thanks for being here, and tell us what is the
meaning of the election to you, How does it impact
you in your community, and what do you hope now
for the future. Well, in August, our Supreme Court allowed
an abortion band to go into effect as long as
(04:53):
once the fetal heartbeat is detected, then as sixth day
on abortions and less to save the mother's life. We
recently had a Kentucky seemed a Kentucky Supreme Court ballot
that well, basically, the government wanted to put into our
(05:17):
constitution for our state that it would not allow abortions,
and overwhelmingly, luckily, the people of Kentucky denied that. Yeah,
that one of a number of referendums that happened across
the country yesterday, and all five of them, the people
in different states from California to Kentucky to Michigan, decided
that they wanted abortion rights exactly. And that's you know,
(05:41):
I'm a mother, I'm a grandmother. You know, I also
have a master's degree in assist reproduction. I don't work
in that field anymore, but still, you know, I mean,
you know, I've I've been in that field, you know,
where mothers are really start struggling to have children and stuff.
But then you know, sometimes even if they have, if
they have a pregnancy, they may still end up having
(06:03):
to lose that child or give up that child before
it's born because of health issues either to the mother
or non viability of la fetus. Well, yeah, it's a
it's a great topic that you brought up there. Mary,
Thank you so much for your call. I'm gonna go
to you first, Mike on this because I imagine, as
you see state after state after state after state, including
(06:26):
some red states like Kansas earlier this year, vote in
favor of abortion rights, the people going and voting in
favor of abortion rights. Did that surprise you, Actually it doesn't.
I think what really the surprisal was is that prior
to the Roe v. Wade decision that came out, it
was that Republicans had a double digit lead and voter enthusiasm.
Midterms are all about who comes out and shows up,
(06:49):
and when Roe v. Wade happened, it basically jumps started
the anemic support that Democrats had at the time and
got them motivated. But also we see, like from the polling,
it really impacted especially of females, because once they pulled
back that federal law, and it goes down to the states,
like here in Arizona went back to the law that
was during the territorial day, so before we were even
(07:09):
a state. And so you see that, and you know,
people really started to pay attention when things start to
impact them. But when you look at the numbers among
females very much it was the number two issue overall
that was going on outside of jobs, in economy, inflation,
but among women it was just huge where females eighteen
to thirty four year old females or suburban women or
(07:30):
even independent women all were very much leaning much more
to the Democratic candidate than the Republican candidate. Do you
think that abortion was a big factor in what happened
yesterday and sort of tamping down what people expected to
be more of a red wave. I think it was
a factor. I do question how we asked the question
and surveys to try to figure this out. So, you know,
(07:52):
if we asked the question what is the most important
issue in the election? Abortion was certainly an issue for
some people, but it didn't rank at the top of
the list they that inflation did. And so the question
that we would ask using multivariate statistic models would be,
you know, what is the predictive value of saying that
the inflation was first or abortion was first in predicting
(08:13):
a person's vote choice. It may still play a role,
but what it doesn't quite capture is people who may
care most about abortion or immigration, but who are also
using abortion attitudes as a litmus test. And so I
think there's another version of the question that's not in
all surveys. The Public Religion Research Institute does ask this question,
(08:34):
does a candidate's views on abortion like affect your vote choice?
In other words, would you not vote for somebody who
does not share your views? On abortion. I think that
that's actually probably a much more accurate question that's not
asking a lot of surveys. So we do won't know
the answer to the question. But what we do know
is that right after the dab's decision, pr I asked
this question and they noticed that the number of Democrats
(08:56):
who said that yes, a person's views on abortion could
be a deal breaker in terms of voting for them
basically doubled after that. So we do know that there
were some voters who were at least poised. We need
to see whether or not they actually followed through and
turned out to vote. But we're in the summer poised
to make this the defining issue of their election. Let's
go to another call. This is Victoria in San Diego.
(09:17):
Joins us. Now, Victoria, how does the election there? Hey? Great,
great to have you with us. What does the election
result mean to you? It means we're becoming more moderate again.
I've been a life time Democratic voter. However, I was
raised by moderate Republicans from Michigan Ann Arbor, and so
(09:43):
I just it was so relieved today to know that
women's health careaters passed in winder you know, was kept
in office in Michigan on class and life fingers about
Mark Kelly in Arizona because that's where my grandson lives.
(10:05):
And so I'm just sitting here making a stew from
Alice waters because I you know, I know that it
takes another hour. So we're good. But you're happy that
you're saying you're happy that that that the country you
see it as getting more moderate? Yes, And I mean
(10:28):
that even from my side, I'm kind of like almost
what you'd call a blue dog Democrat, and I just,
you know, I was thinking, do I have to move
back to the family home in Portugal or what. So
I feel relieve like maybe I could stay all right
in the States because I was really getting worried. Victoria,
(10:51):
thank you for that car. I'll say, by the way,
as a person who's from Champagne or ban Illinois, where
they have, you know, bumper stickers on the cars that
say I break for all animals of Wolverines, referring to
the mascot of the University of Michigan. Hey, I love
Ann Arber. It's a great town. Mike, just real quick
before we have to go to break here, your thoughts
on that, you know, it did show kind of the
(11:12):
power of the middle. Well, no, what absolutely did, because
you're seeing kind of this civil war breakout in the GOP,
this battle between the Republican Party of old, what's based
on a platform or issue compared to the mega crowd
that's kind of more centered around a bit of Donald Trump,
and he saw that. You know a lot of these
cans like Arizona is a prime example. You look at
our Republican primaries, is that everyone that Trump endorsed won
(11:36):
their primaries. Like you could. You could be this water
bottle I got sitting here. If Trump endorset it would
probably win that Republican primary. We're talking with political polster
Mike Noble and Andrew Gillespie of Emory University and taking
calls from around the country. You're listening to the Middle.
(12:04):
This is the Middle. I'm Jeremy Hobson. If you're just
tuning in, we're live. We are a new national call
and show focused on bringing voices from the middle into
the national conversation. By the way, if you miss any
of the show you want to hear more, you can
check out our podcast The Middle with Jeremy Hobson wherever
you get your podcast. You can also go to listen
to the Middle dot com and we will link you
to it there. My guest this hour, our Arizona based
(12:27):
polster Mike Noble of oh Predictive Insights and Emery University
political science professor Andre Gillespie in Atlanta. Our question, what
do last night's election results mean for your community and
what are your hopes about what can get done now?
Our number eight four four four Middle. That's eight four
four four six four three three five three. Let's go
(12:50):
to Julie in Springville, Utah. Julie, Welcome to the Middle, Connie,
thanks for taking my call. Well, what do the election?
Thanks for taking my call? Yeah, you know, to be honest,
I'm living in Utah. I'm not surprised by the results
at all. I'm disappointed. There's no democratic or even independent
(13:11):
representation kind of for the state of Utah now and
there won't be any for you know, for the foreseeable future,
basically due to gerrymandering, and they redrew the district lines
to completely dilute the democratic areas, and I just think
it really puts the people of Utah at a disadvantage
(13:34):
without any kind of like representation, and definitely not in Washington. Well,
given that you're disappointed by that, let me ask you
part two of our question, which is what are your
hopes for the future. Do you have any hopes for
the future of is there anything you expect we'll be
able to get done that you want given the situation?
(13:54):
I mean, maybe not at the Washington level, or to
be honest, I kind of think that politics is best
practice when you even kind of like do the small stuff,
when you show up at like community community board meetings,
city hall meetings, like, that's where the stuff that really
affects you in your community and the people that you
share your community with. And so I just hope that
(14:17):
people who may feel like there's no point it's like, well,
show up at the local level. That's really the place
to direct your efforts and your passions. Julie, thank you
for calling in. Andre. Let me ask you. You know,
as you look at the map across the country of
the House seats, many analysts have said, if it weren't
for jerrymandering, Republicans probably wouldn't even be taking a majority.
(14:40):
If they do indeed do that which they're now expected
to do, that they wouldn't be doing that except for jerrymandering. Well,
at this story is more nuanced than that. I do
want to acknowledge that in most parts of the country,
partisans are still allowed to draw maps, and this is
a place where paying attention to local and state politics matters,
because it's your state legislators who redraw those maps every
(15:02):
ten years. There are some states, like California that have
moved to nonpartisan redistricting, and from a normative standpoint, that
does make sense. I think we need to ask ourselves
philosophically whether or not it makes sense to allow people
who are holding office to draw their own districts and
to draw the districts of their friends and people that
they may aspire to be one day if they have
(15:23):
federal aspirations. But then there's also this larger issue of
a lot of the polarization that we see today is
not only manifesting itself in terms of, you know, districts
not being competitive by design and by the parties that
control the most state legislatures kind of having the most
way and actually being able to determine how many congressional
seats they can draw to their advantage. But we also
(15:46):
have to acknowledge the ways that we have changed and
how our behavior has actually contributed to polarization. And so
one of the other things that we see is that
the Democratic and the Republican parties used to be really
big tents, and they were ideologically heterogeneous, and so you'd
have liberals and conservatives in both parties, and the moderates
(16:07):
could be bridges towards each other. The middle has shrunk.
The liberals are are by and large Democrats, with the
exception of people of color, particularly African Americans, and the
conservatives are Republicans and never the Twain shall meet. And
there are fewer people who lose. So if we think
about the places where we have seen seat flips, it's
(16:29):
not the Louren Berberts a Boberts of the world who
are losing, even though she may lose in this case. Right,
if you look at Marjorie Taylor Green she won handily
last night. You know it is not Paul Gossar or
Andy Biggs. It is not that you know, the election deniers.
It's not on the far left, your AOC's and your
ilhan Omar's right, it's the people in the middle who
are the most vulnerable. And so we have to on
(16:51):
a personal level think about ideological heterogeneity, own it, and
then also stop using that as a means to other
our opponents. So even when we disagree with members of
the party, and I know that's hard to do in
this particular moment, as much as possible, I think you
can call out people without sort of proclaiming them the
other end, right mortal, right, right, right, which I think actually,
by the way, is one of the things that has
(17:13):
attracted people to the idea of the middle as we
as we have done this show, I will also say, Mike, yeah,
I remember, just to make the point that jerrymandering is
not new. I remember, I remember a clip of the
Texas Governor, the late Texas governor and Richard's like on
Larry King Live twenty years ago saying Larry, some of
these districts are so jerrymandered you could drive down the
(17:35):
street with both your car doors open and hit every house.
You're exactly right. And that's what's interesting is that depending
on which state, some have independent redising commissions commissions, but
in the partisans, whether it's a blue or red team
that is controlling it, they both do it. They basically,
you know, the party in power will typically take advantage
of that. But it's interesting even within independent redistricting commissions,
(17:59):
you have two Republicans Democrats, but any of that fifth independent,
but as you know, as one truly independent. And so
it's but what we're seeing right now because this hyperpartisanship.
Like ke Research asked the question in the twenty twenty election,
you know, if a Biden would win or Trump would win,
what would that mean? And basically both of them are like,
this would be cataclysmic, and so I both feel like
they're battling for the soul of the country. Let's go
(18:23):
to Jonathan, who is joining us from Kentucky. Jonathan, Welcome
to the Middle Hi, Love PBS, Thanks for taking my call.
I'm in a state like your earlier caller from Kentucky,
where we're kind of starved for political choice. You know,
McConnell and Rand Paul, it's really about all you have
(18:49):
got re elected pretty handily. Yes, absolutely, and so as
as a moderate, it's difficult to get your voice heard.
But I guess my hope for the future is that
with moderation. If you remember Clinton Bill Clinton's second term
when it was a heavy Republican House and Clinton was president,
(19:14):
probably one of the best four years I remember for
creative and positive legislation, and I'm hoping that the Democrats
will propose a non buying solution for the presidency and
we can have some moderation because it looks like the
Republicans they're going to take the House in the Senate.
(19:34):
Maybe not, but by the next two years, I think
they will for sure. So moderation, I guess, is what
I'm hoping for because there's a lot of hateful elements
on either side, you know what I mean, on the
Democratic side and on the Republican side, and we need
to quell those voices and keep that hatred down and
(19:55):
work towards positive solutions. I guess it's my hope for everything. Jonathan,
thank you so much for that call. Again. Our number,
by the way is eight four four four Middle. That
is eight four four six four three three five three.
You can also reach out to us at Listen to
the Middle dot com. Let me take a look at
some of the notes that are coming in online. John
(20:15):
writes from Wisconsin that he's frustrated by the impact of
the Citizens United case equating political donations as speech and
how the Supreme Court, he says, disabled the Voting Rights Act.
Larry and Phoenix says his number one issue is political dysfunction.
He says malfeasance, misfeasance, and nonfeasance, and a political public
(20:37):
school teacher writes from Oklahoma concerned about two things, the
safety of transgender students as a result of the election,
and says criminalizing teaching history strangles the opportunity for our
youth to learn from the past. Andrew, let me ask
you about that, because we did hear we have heard
from a number of listeners over the last few weeks
(20:57):
about trans rights. I've actually been surprised at how many
people have called in on that issue. But clearly many
people see that as one of the things that's at
stake right now with the results of this election, especially
in places where more socially conservative Republicans have taken control.
You know, this is an issue that's likely going to
(21:19):
play out at the local level and at the state level.
And so you know, where we have seen legislation regarding
transgender youth issues, it's it's largely come up in state legislatures,
and so what we don't have the bandwidth to do,
but lots of people at the state and local level
can do or pay attention to what the balance of
power looks like in state legislatures and what not, the
(21:39):
types of candidates who are getting elected who are going
to make that their issue, and so as your listeners
are well aware that's you know, it encompasses a wide
range of issues. It's started with bathroom bills, you know,
in some instances, it's talking about gender affirm and care
and lots of places right now. I mean, we saw
(22:00):
this happen in the last session, and I wouldn't be
surprised if we see more of this in future legislative
sessions around the country. The bills that come up about
preventing transgender youth, particularly transgender girls, from participating in girls
sports with cisgender girls. So you know, this is an
issue that I suspect isn't going away. And in states
(22:20):
that have Republican majorities and have the Republican trifecta where
both the state House, the state Senate, and the governor's
office are Republican, we may see the passage of more
of these types of bills. Mike, do you see that
show up in polling trans trans rights issues? Not so much,
because basically, when we have at least from my experience
(22:43):
of going through the polling, and I've done a lot
even studies specifically on this, is that you know, when
you get to the LGBT crowd, that's great, but then
as they've kept expanding it, but once you get to
the transgender stuff, what we found is a lot of
folks don't. Like the ones that say they understand it,
they actually really don't at the end of the day
when you run them through a battery of questions, and
that it's just tough because on that issue, especially with
(23:05):
competing et cetera, it's they're incredibly small population, if I
would guess probably one point one percent if that of
the population, So they're again they're a very very small group,
and so with that issue. But also I think that's
one of the issues that like, for example, folks on
the left that pushing it again it is kind of
really push more moderate Democrats or more socially conservative Democrats
(23:27):
out of that tent as the kind of pushing some
of these other, you know, issues. I will say, by
the way, I think the number is higher than point
one percent. I think actually, now they've done surveys about this, PEW,
I'm looking at a Pew survey about five percent of
young adults in the US consider themselves trans or non binary.
So it's certainly an issue that's coming up more and
more and more people are identifying that way. Let's go
(23:49):
to another call. Tim in Gilbert, Arizona is with us. Tim,
Welcome to the middle. Hello, Hello, hello, tell us what
is the what is the meaning of the election to you?
How do what do the results mean for you in
your community? So I'm a pretty young voter. This is
the first ever election where I voted in person. My
(24:11):
girlfriend and I just went down to the ballots together
for the first time in person. And for me, it's
it's been somewhat concerning because you know, I've I've always
you know, mean, lest my entire life in this election.
You know, I'm not thrilled with the candidate's election on
my side, but I also, you know, I recognize that
(24:31):
the opposing party in the Arizona election is a very
clear platform of you know, kind of these theories of
election fraud, and to me, that's just you know, to
elect those officials would be so damaging to the integrity
of our democracy. And you know, as a young person
participating in this process. It's just it's so concerning to
me to see that, you know, we're walking such a
(24:52):
fine line between these two parties in Arizona, and you know,
to me, it seems that the Republican Party in Arizona
is just you know, the consequences would just be damning
to you know, our our democratic process. Do you feel
like your you said that you're your first time voter, yes,
Do you feel like your vote will make a difference?
(25:17):
I think so. I'm given how tight of a race
it is, you know, we're we're still waiting for for
a good amount of the votes to come in. But
just looking at some of these preliminary results that have
come in from Arizona, you know, it's it's margins of
thousands of votes, which is I mean, that's that's barely anything.
I feel like, you know, so yeah, to see that,
and then just to think of how many young people
(25:38):
I know who you know, probably weren't at the polls yesterday,
just because I know, you know, voter engagement just isn't
where it ought to be with people my age. It's
just it's really concerting to see those one margins. Well, Tim,
thank you for for voting and thank you for calling.
And Mike, we did see in the last day or
so that the numbers are showing that more young people
(25:59):
turned out than in past elections. Well, yeah, we see that.
Obviously with the social media and ability to interconnect and
actually pass information much quicker that you can raise that awareness,
so that has helped increase turnout. Also the abortion issue
and of course threats to democracy which has been pushed along.
Member Arizona was home to the nationally watched audit that
(26:22):
was going on. So we spent after last election usually
you're done, and spent six months talking about it watching
that very unprofessional audit go happen, and it was interesting
that they found that, you know, there's no malfeasance going on. Plus,
Arizona is actually a really good election system in place,
and it's been good for some time and it's really
just been propagated due to really just you know, from
(26:47):
the powers that be over on the Republican side and
the mega side. But it is definitely concerning because if
you don't have trust in the electoral system, how do
you have a republic Let's go to line three here,
deb in Toledo, Ohio. Dev Welcome to the middle and
what do the election results mean for you? Hi, thanks
(27:08):
for having me on the program. I'm being in Ohio.
I was really sad to see Tim Ryan's loss because
I think that Jim Ryan sort of represents a way
forward for the Democratic Party in terms of he has
a real understanding, I think of working class people that
(27:29):
Democrats have sort of lost over the last several years.
But I also just wanted to say that I think
that his concession speech just show what a class act
he really is, because in his concession speech, he talked
about the fact that it was his privilege to concede
and to congratulate his opponent. Because in this country, when
(27:51):
the people have spoken, that's what we do is we
get over the loss and we move on. And I
think that's a message that this whole country really needs
to hear and pay attention to. Deep Thank you for
your call, Andra. She's talking about Tim Ryan, who's running
for Senate as a Democrat in Ohio lost that race
to the venture capitalist j d Vance, who had been
(28:13):
endorsed by Trump, and Tim Ryan came out and gave
this concession speech and said something to the effect of
it's an honor to give this speech. Because this is
what you do when you lose an election in this country.
What do you think of that? You know, I was
in Georgia, so I watched Stacy Abrams enough going on
in Georgia yourself, exactly right, Yeah, but well, I mean,
you know, the issue was is that that's come up
(28:34):
in the national precedent had become a talking point that
you know, if Donald Trump didn't concede the twenty twenty electible,
Stacey Abrams didn't either. And you know, having lived in
Georgia in twenty eighteen, you know what Abrams did was
acknowledge that she wasn't going to be the governor, even
though she thought it was unfair, and at the time,
she was convinced that enough of voters had been suppressed
or turned away from the polar discouraged from voting by
(28:55):
long lines, that if she was able to make a
case for it, that she might be able to kind
of like, you know, get their votes counted in some way,
shape or form. And you know, that proved to be
a feudal effort. But you know, ultimately, at the end
of the day, the way that that that I looked
at it was she acknowledged she wasn't going to win.
She wasn't plotting to you know, move into the governor's
mansion while Brian Kemp was being inaugurated. She certainly didn't
(29:19):
foment a riot in order to make that happen. But
this time around, that strategy, which you know, you know,
may not have been the most gracious, but was handled
very definitely and very professionally, because that's how Stacy Abrams
carries herself, you know, could still end up being weaponized
a few years later when other people were doing things
that were actually very very different and very very dangerous.
(29:41):
So I think it was really incumbent upon Democratic candidates
to last night, and as we're seeing election results come in,
model a different type of behavior to draw a sharp contrast.
That is Emery University political scientist Andrew Gillespie. And you're
listening to the Middle. We'll be right back. This is
(30:13):
the Middle. I'm Jeremy Hobson. We are live from kJ
ZZ and Phoenix, Arizona. We're asking you what the election
results mean for you and your community and what your
hopes are about what can happen now. Our number is
eight four four four Middle. That's eight four four four
six four three three five three. You can also reach
out to us at Listen to the Middle dot com.
Our guests are Arizona based polster Mike Noble and Emery
(30:36):
University political science professor Andrey Gillespie. Let's get back to
the phones, and we've got Alex here in Phoenix, Arizona. Alex,
Welcome to the Middle. Thanks for having me, Thank you
being here. The election results so far, obviously in Arizona
(30:57):
there's a lot of what's undecided, so locally I can't
speak to that, but nationally, I do think it's really notable.
What's hardening to me is the fact that a lot
of what I call election deniers have actually conceded their races.
I had a lot of concern before this election that
if that were to occur, we'd have a large swap
(31:18):
of candidates basically calling into question our election system as
a whole. And I am more positive about the rebustness
of our electoral system than I was before him. Great,
that's another call on that issue of people happy that
we're seeing concession speeches. I'm just going to go straight
(31:39):
into another call if I can. Here from Benjamin in
Oa Claire, Wisconsin. Benjamin welcome to the middle. What do
the election results mean for you? Thanks Jeremy. It's actually
a doctor faustic and I am a practicing ob G.
I n the Marshfield Clinic. I am incredibly relieved that
we uh, you know, have a democratic governor that will
(32:02):
be staying on in twenty vers as well as likely
democratic Attorney general, because right now I am unable to
practice medicine the way that I've always practiced and provide
the standard of care to women that may happen to
have a fetal cardiac myosite rhythmic beating. If I were
(32:26):
to do anything to that fetus, regardless of the women's status,
I could be you know, prosecuted, criminally, lose my license
and potentially end my career. And it's it's a it's
a literal day to day practice for me and a
life and death issue for my patients. So just a
real sense of relief that the Democrats look to have
(32:50):
held on to at least those positions. Hopefully the Republican
Party won't get a supermajority in both of the Senate
and the Assembly. And looking forward to the April election
of a new Supreme Court justice that may be able
to flip the composition of our state Supreme Court and
(33:12):
look into overturning that eighteen forty nine law. Let me
just ask you one question, what would you have done
if the Republican had won the governorship instead of Tony Evers?
Would have continued what we're doing now, which is unfortunately,
either you know, denying care to some patients at our
(33:33):
facilities or referring them over to the Twin Cities, which
thankfully is close enough that most patients can get to
fairly easily, but it is still a significant concern. Thank
you so much, and looking yeah, yeah, thanks for your call,
and let me go to you Andre, because you're in
(33:54):
a state that now does have much more restrictive abortion laws. Correct.
Following the DABS decision in Georgia. Correct In twenty nineteen,
the Georgia's legislature and Governor Bryant Kemp passed a law
that restricted abortion after the detection of a fetal heartbeat,
so at the six week mark. It was enjoined until
(34:16):
the DABS decision, and then after the DABS decision, the
current interpretation, which I believe, don't quote me on this
is still actually up for litigation, might open that up
to actually allow for the abortion ban to go into effect.
Do you think that do you think that voters made
different decisions about who they were voting for, let's say,
for the Senate or for governor if they lived in
(34:38):
a state like Georgia where there were more restrictive laws
after Dabbs, versus if they lived in a state like
Illinois where abortion was not an issue in the same
way because the laws didn't change Postdobs. I can't answer
that question right now. Political scientists do run a big
(34:58):
national survey that has suffic sample sizes in each congressional district.
I have no doubt that abortion questions were answered. Are
you know? We're asked on that survey, so you know,
within the next year or so, I expect that somebody
is going to be writing that paper that's actually going
to look at that data per each congressional district and
actually be able to answer that question. Mike, you haven't
done any pulling on that. Oh, We've asked a lot
(35:21):
of questions basically as we've we've tested in the states.
Is that you know, really, and it's funny a lot
of the answers, frankly, in politics are usually common sense
ones of that. You know, when you talk about how
this impact, like, once the thing's impact you, you start
paying attention. So when the law gets passed and again
ROVIE was talked about for four decades and then all
of a sudden it dropped in the middle of When
(35:42):
it did, it was kind of too late for folks
to kind of get ballot into ships on there. And
that's why I'll be a big twenty twenty four point.
But when you have that, and once you have certain
things impacting, they really start thinking, they start getting involved.
And actually, I wouldn't not be surprised whatsoever when the
results come out of some of these more larger studies
that it did in fact play an impact, especially again
(36:02):
those most impacted females, especially younger females and Republican female. Well,
and we haven't talked that much about inflation this hour,
but that is obviously something that impacts just about everybody
in this country in some way, especially people who are
lower on the economic ladder, where you know, the cost
of gas, the cost of milk, the cost of housing,
the cost of transportation really does affect what they are
(36:25):
able to do on a day to day basis. Let's
go to a call in Texas. Quinn is joining us. Quinn,
Welcome to the middle. What do the election results mean
for you? Hey, thanks so much for having me. Probably
appropriate for the title of your show. I found myself
kind of lamenting the loss of the middle. Generally, I
(36:48):
tend to be I want my government small, and I
don't want laws that the legislate my personal liberty. So
let family planning decisions be left to the family, and
if somebody wants to hunt, and let him make the
decision to go hunt. And I started looking through voting
records and issues, and it just seemed that generally my
(37:10):
choices were all very It was a very divisive lot,
like the rhetoric and the narrative is all or nothing,
far left or far right. And I got to thinking
about other geographies where they have multiparty systems, where there
may be six parties and they have to share power
and come to compromise, and I think maybe that's kind
(37:33):
of the recipe for finding the middle. And I just
didn't seem that I felt like I had candidates that
represented a common sense middle ground approach to our problem solving.
Can I ask who you voted for in the Texas
governor's race that a lot of people were watching between
Governor Greg Abbott who won and Beto O'Rourke who lost,
(37:55):
And there you go. I voted libertarian almost straight ticket,
largely because some of the rhetoric around gun policies from
Vetto were a little bit leftist for me. But on
the family planning issue, I couldn't in good conscious vote
for the incumbent and I would have basically written in
(38:17):
anybody except Dan Patrick. Well, that's very interesting, Quinn, Thank
you so much for calling andre I knew we'd get
to this issue, which is, you know, people not happy
with the two parties and they don't know what to do. Well,
I don't have a good answer for you, probably have
an answer that your listener will not like. The reason
(38:37):
why we have a two party system is because we
have single member districts in first past the post elections,
and that tends to lend itself to two dominant parties
emerging from that. And the proportional representation system that the
listener speaks about works very well in a parliamentary democracy
where the executive and the legislative branch are one and
(38:59):
the same. But our separation of powers would actually probably
make that a little bit more unwieldy here in the
United States. So moving to a multi party system, I
don't know is going to have the exact same type
of impact that the listener and visions. What I would say, though,
is that there may be other opportunities for people to
(39:19):
be able to exert influence on elections in other ways.
And so, you know, one of the ways that people
talk about this, and I will defer to my colleagues
who specialize in social choice to answer this question, but
you know, one way we could sort of alter our
election system to think about this a little bit differently
is to think about moving towards ranked choice voting, where
people where you have to get a clear majority of support,
(39:41):
but where people actually get to rank their choices. You know,
in a multiple field of candidates, it's likely going to
be Democrats and Republicans and who just have many of
them running, as we have seen happen in the places
where this is being used, like New York City, in
San Francisco and now Alaska. So you know, this is
an opportunity for people to say this is my first choice,
this person is my second choice, this person is my
(40:03):
third choice, and the hope of lots of proponents of
ranked choice voting is that it actually allows for the
moderate candidate, the compromise candidate too, if not outright win
on the first ballots, to perhaps end up being the
second or third choice and actually being able to cobble
together a victory there. Mike Dobell, what about the issue
of people not being able to find what they want
and the choices that are available to them, and do
(40:25):
you think ranked choice voting is the way forward? I
think rank choice voting definitely will help with the current system.
But it's actually one of the most common questions I
get asked in the last few years, and I've noticed
it's bubbled up more and more. But you see it
in the current numbers, for example like Arizona, Nevada. You
look at party registration levels, actually both Democrats and Republicans
are both dropping Independence or actually the fastest growing party.
(40:48):
But the problem is currently is that third party vote
share is at it's all time low. I mean the
heydays of Ross Perot, those are long gone and so
right now that what we're seeing is that there is
a clamoring for that. And you look at yeah, like
you look at in England or Israel, they have multiple parties. Heck,
in India they got like thirty over there. But it's
interesting when you have a lot more parties, it makes
(41:09):
you have to make deals and cobble together coalitions. Right now,
you got red team and blue teams. I like to
refer to mass and as they're getting pulled to their
respective fringes, the people are finding there's really not a
home for them and not much of a viable choice
in the middle. You know, we've got some comments coming
in online to this issue. Maggie and Wisconsin calls herself
a split ballot voter and she wishes there was a
(41:32):
candidate who would protect my uterus, the environment, and my
right to firearms. Let's go to Noah in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Noah,
welcome to the middle, and what do the election results
mean for you. I was happy to see Fetterman win.
I know that was really close and a lot of
(41:53):
people were concerned after the only one debate that they had,
you know, so it's really hoping for him to win,
especially now that I know you guys have a lot
of people who's talking about split ticket voting. You see
that at a big difference between Shapiro and Fetterman. Shapiro,
(42:13):
the governor, got more more votes from Democrats than Fetterman did.
It wasn't even close with Shapiro, but with Fetterman, as
you say, it was pretty close, right right. And I
just think I think the previous follower you were just
talking to talking about protecting her uterus and also her gun,
her gun rights. You know, I think I called previously
(42:36):
and talked about gun rights briefly to you know, I
left the message. But I think that you know, there's
room there. You know, was the ring choice voting and
and with the Georgia race, you know, going into a
runoff and they have two percent libertarian vote that they're
going to have to basically go for. I think that,
you know that that could be a you know, should
(42:58):
be a bigger thing and bigger growth and maybe a
third party or our fourth party or more parties. Is
there is there one thing? Is there one issue with
Fetterman that you're excited about now that he'll be in
the Senate. Yeah, I think that his stance on like
he has a libertarian Santon cannabis, you know, And I
(43:19):
think that you know, I used to be a Canvasser recently,
I switched jobs, but a top people where a lot
of people were talking about that was a top issue
for them, you know, just as like this, and they
used it medically for that nature and just taking away
the stigma or you know, allowing more people to have
jobs from that. So I think that he to think
(43:39):
he represents a good direction for the party picking up
you know, more role voters in that aspect, like a
libertarian way. No, thank you so much for that call.
I guess you know that as a that's a topic
we should talk about because honestly, a couple of states
at least yesterday voted to legalize marijuana, including Missouri, just
(43:59):
more and more and more. Is this an issue that
you think, Mike Noble, that we are going to see
federal action on? Is the Are the polls catching up
to the point are the people's attitudes changing to the
point where somebody's it's going to be a popular position
to say we're going to legalize it nationwide. That's a
great question, Jeremy. I think it is actually an inevitability.
So for Arizona, for example, for back in twenty sixteen,
(44:22):
it was on the ballot, it was closed and only
lost by like, you know, half a percentage point, came
back again and four years later and it passed with
sixty percent of the vote. And you know what is
kind of considered more conservative, right Arizona, And so I
think you're gonna because the way the folks view it,
it's kind of very normalize it. People kind of treat
it like alcohol. It's very similar in that respect, but
(44:45):
actually actually significantly safer. But I think it's it's an inevitability,
and I think it's going to happen sooner rather than later.
But I think more and more states are going to
be piling on as your years ago thinking. Yeah. So
even though it passes in three states, I believe it
also failed in the Dakotas, both north and South. I'd
behave So, you know, this still doesn't quite stem the
(45:09):
tide of it having been legalized in so many parts
of the country, but there is the potential for backlash
and not everybody seems to be completely on board with this.
And by the way, the middle is on all the
way across the Dakotas. So if you're in the Dakotas,
please write to us from either North Dakota or South
Dakota to listen to the middle dot com and let
us know what you think about those measures on cannabis.
(45:31):
Failing there, we have run out of time, which means, well,
we run out of time for the serious part, which
is the cause, which means we now have time for
the fun part, which is the Anthony Anthony Valades. It's
back with us with the most fun part of the show,
The Notorious Needle to be infamous. It is the infamous
and the Notorious Needle drop. Now here's what we're gonna do.
I'm gonna drop the needle in the middle of the record,
(45:54):
and I'm going to play a five second snippet. And
you need to tell me who this British band is,
which features and I Conic Phoenix born vocalists. Bonus points
if you can name her now a little hint. They
were inducted into the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame
in nineteen ninety eight. And for a little fun, because
you political folks are really good at this game, I'm
gonna play a remix version. All right, Jeremy Andre, Mike,
(46:14):
are you all ready to play the needle? All right?
Here we go, Okay, needle drop time. Who's the band.
Who's the artist to go? I'm gonna have to take
a pass. I was born in nineteen eighty four. Oh
my gosh, Andra, I don't know this on my own,
(46:38):
but the producer here is is telling me it's Fleetwood
mac Oh. That's not fair. That is not fair. That's
a friend. This isn't who wants to be a millionaire?
All right? Andre Gillespie at Emory University and Mike Noble
with O H Predictive Insights. Thank you both so much
for for your your the context you brought and your
(46:59):
ex for tease tonight. Thanks for having it. Thank you, Anthony.
Let's talk for a minute, because we just did four
live shows on over five hundred public radio stations with
no distributor. There's no NPR, no APM, no PRX. We
did this all by ourselves. It has never been done before.
We did it thanks to four wonderful public radio stations
that lent us their resources to make this happen. KJAZZ
(47:22):
and Phoenix, Kcure in Kansas City, WGCU and Fort Myers,
and of course WILLL in my hometown of Urbana, Illinois,
which helped us get all the shows up to the
satellite so that public radio stations could carry them live.
We did that all with this wonderful team Alex Ashlock,
John Bart, Sam Burmstaws, Ccfatape, Lisa Napoli, and Harrison Patino.
(47:43):
So what happens now, Anthony, what happens now? Well, we
would like to make this don't needle drop, I don't know.
We would like to make this into a regular program
in twenty twenty three to keep giving voice to so
many Americans in the middle, whether the geograph fuckle middle,
the political middle, the middle class, or just the middle
is a state of mind. We'd like to keep a
(48:05):
live national call in show on public radio. It has
not existed with this kind of reach since the end
of Talk of the Nation back in twenty thirteen. We
are going to need support to keep this going, so
we're gonna be on the hunt for funding. This isn't
a pledge drive. Don't worry unless you were a big
foundation and have a lot of money, in which case,
please call us. In the meantime, subscribe to our podcast
The Middle with Jeremy Hobson, reach out to us and
(48:27):
listen to the Middle dot Com. Tell us what you think, Anthony,
I want to Thank you so much for being a
part of this. Your energy is so infectious and the
music you brought was really wonderful. Thank you, Jeremy. Such
an honor and such an honor to hear from the
voices from everybody listening. Our theme music was composed by
Andrew Hague, our technical director here in Phoenix. Tra Van
here at KJAZZ also helped from Ben Overbon John Hoban,
(48:48):
one of the first station leaders to say Yes to
the Middle. Thanks also to WABE, KCRW, Jason Kropp and
Lilly Duncanson and the more than five hundred public radio
stations that made it possible for the whole country to
listen to the Middle. I'm Jeremy Hobson. I hope to
talk to you again very soon.
Welcome to the Middle of Jeremy Hobson Live this evening
from KJAZZ in Phoenix, Arizona. This is the last of
our four live election specials, and we'll talk a bit
later about what happens with the Middle going forward. But
first let me bring in our house, DJ Anthony valadez
Hi Anthony, Hey, Jeremy, how's it going. It's going very well.
How are you. It's feeling really good at busy night
(00:26):
last night, but it's so great to be back here today. Yeah,
it didn't get a lot of sleep plus night, but
it's good that we were in Arizona, where you know,
the election results come in a bit earlier than they
do when you're further east in the country. You get
to go to bed slightly earlier. But we still don't
know in this state the winner of the Senate race.
That could determine the balance of power in Washington. That
(00:47):
is the power of the Middle. And I have to
tell you there has been so much response in terms
of the calls we've been getting all across the country
At eight four four four Middle last week, as you know,
we were in Kansas City. We asked what is an
area where you disagree with the political party that you
affiliate with, and listen to some of the calls we
got that didn't make it on the air. Hi, my
(01:09):
name is David Brossard. I'm out of Kansas. Hi. I'm
Dan Brashears. I am in Hot Springs, Arkansas. My name
is Katherine Bowman and I live in Columbia, Missouri. I
am a Republican and I have been all my life,
but for me, I no longer trust most of the
members of the Republican part of the government or voting
for them. I have watched the Republican Party evolved. So
(01:33):
I am a Democrat rare in Arkansas and pretty much
Democrat on almost all social issues, except I do have
a hard time with I can't not think about what
I believe to be the life of an unborn child.
And my issue is with my party, Republicans, refusing to
view things through a systemic lens, and it really leads
(01:56):
to some detriments when it comes to just talking about
policy in general. That's where I'm coming from. Thank you,
Thank you very much. Again. We are listening to all
our voicemails. If you can't get through at eight four
four four Middle because the lines are jammed, just leave
a message for us. Okay, here's what we're asking this hour.
What do the election results mean for you and your community?
(02:18):
And what do you hope can be accomplished? Anthony, what
is our number? The number is eight four four four
six four three three five three threats eight four four
four Middle, and remember, as we have this conversation, I
want to hear from you, whatever your point of view.
There's no condescension here. We're going to have respect for
one another and have a civil conversation even when we disagree.
Let's bring in our guests. Joining me in the studio
(02:41):
is Mike Noble, chief of research at OH Predictive Insights,
a nonpartisan polling firm here in Arizona. Mike, thank you
for joining us. Jeremy, thanks for having me well. And
is it fair to say, by the way, that the
polls were wrong yet again, as a pollster in attendance here, No,
absolutely not. Not only that the polls are actually incredibly accurate.
You look at the States of Georgia which said it
(03:01):
is gonna be incredibly tight race. Not only is it
forty nine forty nine is going to runoff Federman slide
edge in Pennsylvania, which we saw there tight in Nevada
and Arizona, and as we're seeing right now, the polls
are very much spot on. So it's a good year
for polsters, all right. We're also joined from Atlanta, Georgia,
by Emory University political scientist Andrew Gillespie. Andrew, welcome to you.
(03:24):
And it's fair to say you're also in a state
that could determine the balance of power when the Senate
runoff happens next month. But were you surprised by the
results overall across the country? I mean, I think all
of us are still waiting to see what the final
House races look like, to see whether or not Republicans
gained the predicted number of seats. We have seen some
(03:45):
surprises in some of these Senate races. I don't think
anybody could have predicted that Lauren Bober would be behind
seventy three votes right now, congresswoman from Colorado, very far
right congresswoman as well, very very far right. And so
you know, there's certainly, you know, have been some things
that we have seen before. But the things that I
am not surprised by our things that were perhaps discussed
differently in the press, and so I think there was
(04:07):
a lot of hype around the red Wave, and you know,
a lot of that was just hype, right, And it
was a lot of people just trying to fill airspace
to talk about the horse race. And we probably could
have done a little bit better not talking about that
as much as we did. Well, let's see what our
callers think about what happened and what it means for them.
Once again, our number is eight four four four Middle.
Our first call is Mary in Lexington, Kentucky. Mary, Welcome
(04:31):
to the Middle. Hello, and thanks for having me. Well,
thanks for being here, and tell us what is the
meaning of the election to you, How does it impact
you in your community, and what do you hope now
for the future. Well, in August, our Supreme Court allowed
an abortion band to go into effect as long as
(04:53):
once the fetal heartbeat is detected, then as sixth day
on abortions and less to save the mother's life. We
recently had a Kentucky seemed a Kentucky Supreme Court ballot
that well, basically, the government wanted to put into our
(05:17):
constitution for our state that it would not allow abortions,
and overwhelmingly, luckily, the people of Kentucky denied that. Yeah,
that one of a number of referendums that happened across
the country yesterday, and all five of them, the people
in different states from California to Kentucky to Michigan, decided
that they wanted abortion rights exactly. And that's you know,
(05:41):
I'm a mother, I'm a grandmother. You know, I also
have a master's degree in assist reproduction. I don't work
in that field anymore, but still, you know, I mean,
you know, I've I've been in that field, you know,
where mothers are really start struggling to have children and stuff.
But then you know, sometimes even if they have, if
they have a pregnancy, they may still end up having
(06:03):
to lose that child or give up that child before
it's born because of health issues either to the mother
or non viability of la fetus. Well, yeah, it's a
it's a great topic that you brought up there. Mary,
Thank you so much for your call. I'm gonna go
to you first, Mike on this because I imagine, as
you see state after state after state after state, including
(06:26):
some red states like Kansas earlier this year, vote in
favor of abortion rights, the people going and voting in
favor of abortion rights. Did that surprise you, Actually it doesn't.
I think what really the surprisal was is that prior
to the Roe v. Wade decision that came out, it
was that Republicans had a double digit lead and voter enthusiasm.
Midterms are all about who comes out and shows up,
(06:49):
and when Roe v. Wade happened, it basically jumps started
the anemic support that Democrats had at the time and
got them motivated. But also we see, like from the polling,
it really impacted especially of females, because once they pulled
back that federal law, and it goes down to the states,
like here in Arizona went back to the law that
was during the territorial day, so before we were even
(07:09):
a state. And so you see that, and you know,
people really started to pay attention when things start to
impact them. But when you look at the numbers among
females very much it was the number two issue overall
that was going on outside of jobs, in economy, inflation,
but among women it was just huge where females eighteen
to thirty four year old females or suburban women or
(07:30):
even independent women all were very much leaning much more
to the Democratic candidate than the Republican candidate. Do you
think that abortion was a big factor in what happened
yesterday and sort of tamping down what people expected to
be more of a red wave. I think it was
a factor. I do question how we asked the question
and surveys to try to figure this out. So, you know,
(07:52):
if we asked the question what is the most important
issue in the election? Abortion was certainly an issue for
some people, but it didn't rank at the top of
the list they that inflation did. And so the question
that we would ask using multivariate statistic models would be,
you know, what is the predictive value of saying that
the inflation was first or abortion was first in predicting
(08:13):
a person's vote choice. It may still play a role,
but what it doesn't quite capture is people who may
care most about abortion or immigration, but who are also
using abortion attitudes as a litmus test. And so I
think there's another version of the question that's not in
all surveys. The Public Religion Research Institute does ask this question,
(08:34):
does a candidate's views on abortion like affect your vote choice?
In other words, would you not vote for somebody who
does not share your views? On abortion. I think that
that's actually probably a much more accurate question that's not
asking a lot of surveys. So we do won't know
the answer to the question. But what we do know
is that right after the dab's decision, pr I asked
this question and they noticed that the number of Democrats
(08:56):
who said that yes, a person's views on abortion could
be a deal breaker in terms of voting for them
basically doubled after that. So we do know that there
were some voters who were at least poised. We need
to see whether or not they actually followed through and
turned out to vote. But we're in the summer poised
to make this the defining issue of their election. Let's
go to another call. This is Victoria in San Diego.
(09:17):
Joins us. Now, Victoria, how does the election there? Hey? Great,
great to have you with us. What does the election
result mean to you? It means we're becoming more moderate again.
I've been a life time Democratic voter. However, I was
raised by moderate Republicans from Michigan Ann Arbor, and so
(09:43):
I just it was so relieved today to know that
women's health careaters passed in winder you know, was kept
in office in Michigan on class and life fingers about
Mark Kelly in Arizona because that's where my grandson lives.
(10:05):
And so I'm just sitting here making a stew from
Alice waters because I you know, I know that it
takes another hour. So we're good. But you're happy that
you're saying you're happy that that that the country you
see it as getting more moderate? Yes, And I mean
(10:28):
that even from my side, I'm kind of like almost
what you'd call a blue dog Democrat, and I just,
you know, I was thinking, do I have to move
back to the family home in Portugal or what. So
I feel relieve like maybe I could stay all right
in the States because I was really getting worried. Victoria,
(10:51):
thank you for that car. I'll say, by the way,
as a person who's from Champagne or ban Illinois, where
they have, you know, bumper stickers on the cars that
say I break for all animals of Wolverines, referring to
the mascot of the University of Michigan. Hey, I love
Ann Arber. It's a great town. Mike, just real quick
before we have to go to break here, your thoughts
on that, you know, it did show kind of the
(11:12):
power of the middle. Well, no, what absolutely did, because
you're seeing kind of this civil war breakout in the GOP,
this battle between the Republican Party of old, what's based
on a platform or issue compared to the mega crowd
that's kind of more centered around a bit of Donald Trump,
and he saw that. You know a lot of these
cans like Arizona is a prime example. You look at
our Republican primaries, is that everyone that Trump endorsed won
(11:36):
their primaries. Like you could. You could be this water
bottle I got sitting here. If Trump endorset it would
probably win that Republican primary. We're talking with political polster
Mike Noble and Andrew Gillespie of Emory University and taking
calls from around the country. You're listening to the Middle.
(12:04):
This is the Middle. I'm Jeremy Hobson. If you're just
tuning in, we're live. We are a new national call
and show focused on bringing voices from the middle into
the national conversation. By the way, if you miss any
of the show you want to hear more, you can
check out our podcast The Middle with Jeremy Hobson wherever
you get your podcast. You can also go to listen
to the Middle dot com and we will link you
to it there. My guest this hour, our Arizona based
(12:27):
polster Mike Noble of oh Predictive Insights and Emery University
political science professor Andre Gillespie in Atlanta. Our question, what
do last night's election results mean for your community and
what are your hopes about what can get done now?
Our number eight four four four Middle. That's eight four
four four six four three three five three. Let's go
(12:50):
to Julie in Springville, Utah. Julie, Welcome to the Middle, Connie,
thanks for taking my call. Well, what do the election?
Thanks for taking my call? Yeah, you know, to be honest,
I'm living in Utah. I'm not surprised by the results
at all. I'm disappointed. There's no democratic or even independent
(13:11):
representation kind of for the state of Utah now and
there won't be any for you know, for the foreseeable future,
basically due to gerrymandering, and they redrew the district lines
to completely dilute the democratic areas, and I just think
it really puts the people of Utah at a disadvantage
(13:34):
without any kind of like representation, and definitely not in Washington. Well,
given that you're disappointed by that, let me ask you
part two of our question, which is what are your
hopes for the future. Do you have any hopes for
the future of is there anything you expect we'll be
able to get done that you want given the situation?
(13:54):
I mean, maybe not at the Washington level, or to
be honest, I kind of think that politics is best
practice when you even kind of like do the small stuff,
when you show up at like community community board meetings,
city hall meetings, like, that's where the stuff that really
affects you in your community and the people that you
share your community with. And so I just hope that
(14:17):
people who may feel like there's no point it's like, well,
show up at the local level. That's really the place
to direct your efforts and your passions. Julie, thank you
for calling in. Andre. Let me ask you. You know,
as you look at the map across the country of
the House seats, many analysts have said, if it weren't
for jerrymandering, Republicans probably wouldn't even be taking a majority.
(14:40):
If they do indeed do that which they're now expected
to do, that they wouldn't be doing that except for jerrymandering. Well,
at this story is more nuanced than that. I do
want to acknowledge that in most parts of the country,
partisans are still allowed to draw maps, and this is
a place where paying attention to local and state politics matters,
because it's your state legislators who redraw those maps every
(15:02):
ten years. There are some states, like California that have
moved to nonpartisan redistricting, and from a normative standpoint, that
does make sense. I think we need to ask ourselves
philosophically whether or not it makes sense to allow people
who are holding office to draw their own districts and
to draw the districts of their friends and people that
they may aspire to be one day if they have
(15:23):
federal aspirations. But then there's also this larger issue of
a lot of the polarization that we see today is
not only manifesting itself in terms of, you know, districts
not being competitive by design and by the parties that
control the most state legislatures kind of having the most
way and actually being able to determine how many congressional
seats they can draw to their advantage. But we also
(15:46):
have to acknowledge the ways that we have changed and
how our behavior has actually contributed to polarization. And so
one of the other things that we see is that
the Democratic and the Republican parties used to be really
big tents, and they were ideologically heterogeneous, and so you'd
have liberals and conservatives in both parties, and the moderates
(16:07):
could be bridges towards each other. The middle has shrunk.
The liberals are are by and large Democrats, with the
exception of people of color, particularly African Americans, and the
conservatives are Republicans and never the Twain shall meet. And
there are fewer people who lose. So if we think
about the places where we have seen seat flips, it's
(16:29):
not the Louren Berberts a Boberts of the world who
are losing, even though she may lose in this case. Right,
if you look at Marjorie Taylor Green she won handily
last night. You know it is not Paul Gossar or
Andy Biggs. It is not that you know, the election deniers.
It's not on the far left, your AOC's and your
ilhan Omar's right, it's the people in the middle who
are the most vulnerable. And so we have to on
(16:51):
a personal level think about ideological heterogeneity, own it, and
then also stop using that as a means to other
our opponents. So even when we disagree with members of
the party, and I know that's hard to do in
this particular moment, as much as possible, I think you
can call out people without sort of proclaiming them the
other end, right mortal, right, right, right, which I think actually,
by the way, is one of the things that has
(17:13):
attracted people to the idea of the middle as we
as we have done this show, I will also say, Mike, yeah,
I remember, just to make the point that jerrymandering is
not new. I remember, I remember a clip of the
Texas Governor, the late Texas governor and Richard's like on
Larry King Live twenty years ago saying Larry, some of
these districts are so jerrymandered you could drive down the
(17:35):
street with both your car doors open and hit every house.
You're exactly right. And that's what's interesting is that depending
on which state, some have independent redising commissions commissions, but
in the partisans, whether it's a blue or red team
that is controlling it, they both do it. They basically,
you know, the party in power will typically take advantage
of that. But it's interesting even within independent redistricting commissions,
(17:59):
you have two Republicans Democrats, but any of that fifth independent,
but as you know, as one truly independent. And so
it's but what we're seeing right now because this hyperpartisanship.
Like ke Research asked the question in the twenty twenty election,
you know, if a Biden would win or Trump would win,
what would that mean? And basically both of them are like,
this would be cataclysmic, and so I both feel like
they're battling for the soul of the country. Let's go
(18:23):
to Jonathan, who is joining us from Kentucky. Jonathan, Welcome
to the Middle Hi, Love PBS, Thanks for taking my call.
I'm in a state like your earlier caller from Kentucky,
where we're kind of starved for political choice. You know,
McConnell and Rand Paul, it's really about all you have
(18:49):
got re elected pretty handily. Yes, absolutely, and so as
as a moderate, it's difficult to get your voice heard.
But I guess my hope for the future is that
with moderation. If you remember Clinton Bill Clinton's second term
when it was a heavy Republican House and Clinton was president,
(19:14):
probably one of the best four years I remember for
creative and positive legislation, and I'm hoping that the Democrats
will propose a non buying solution for the presidency and
we can have some moderation because it looks like the
Republicans they're going to take the House in the Senate.
(19:34):
Maybe not, but by the next two years, I think
they will for sure. So moderation, I guess, is what
I'm hoping for because there's a lot of hateful elements
on either side, you know what I mean, on the
Democratic side and on the Republican side, and we need
to quell those voices and keep that hatred down and
(19:55):
work towards positive solutions. I guess it's my hope for everything. Jonathan,
thank you so much for that call. Again. Our number,
by the way is eight four four four Middle. That
is eight four four six four three three five three.
You can also reach out to us at Listen to
the Middle dot com. Let me take a look at
some of the notes that are coming in online. John
(20:15):
writes from Wisconsin that he's frustrated by the impact of
the Citizens United case equating political donations as speech and
how the Supreme Court, he says, disabled the Voting Rights Act.
Larry and Phoenix says his number one issue is political dysfunction.
He says malfeasance, misfeasance, and nonfeasance, and a political public
(20:37):
school teacher writes from Oklahoma concerned about two things, the
safety of transgender students as a result of the election,
and says criminalizing teaching history strangles the opportunity for our
youth to learn from the past. Andrew, let me ask
you about that, because we did hear we have heard
from a number of listeners over the last few weeks
(20:57):
about trans rights. I've actually been surprised at how many
people have called in on that issue. But clearly many
people see that as one of the things that's at
stake right now with the results of this election, especially
in places where more socially conservative Republicans have taken control.
You know, this is an issue that's likely going to
(21:19):
play out at the local level and at the state level.
And so you know, where we have seen legislation regarding
transgender youth issues, it's it's largely come up in state legislatures,
and so what we don't have the bandwidth to do,
but lots of people at the state and local level
can do or pay attention to what the balance of
power looks like in state legislatures and what not, the
(21:39):
types of candidates who are getting elected who are going
to make that their issue, and so as your listeners
are well aware that's you know, it encompasses a wide
range of issues. It's started with bathroom bills, you know,
in some instances, it's talking about gender affirm and care
and lots of places right now. I mean, we saw
(22:00):
this happen in the last session, and I wouldn't be
surprised if we see more of this in future legislative
sessions around the country. The bills that come up about
preventing transgender youth, particularly transgender girls, from participating in girls
sports with cisgender girls. So you know, this is an
issue that I suspect isn't going away. And in states
(22:20):
that have Republican majorities and have the Republican trifecta where
both the state House, the state Senate, and the governor's
office are Republican, we may see the passage of more
of these types of bills. Mike, do you see that
show up in polling trans trans rights issues? Not so much,
because basically, when we have at least from my experience
(22:43):
of going through the polling, and I've done a lot
even studies specifically on this, is that you know, when
you get to the LGBT crowd, that's great, but then
as they've kept expanding it, but once you get to
the transgender stuff, what we found is a lot of
folks don't. Like the ones that say they understand it,
they actually really don't at the end of the day
when you run them through a battery of questions, and
that it's just tough because on that issue, especially with
(23:05):
competing et cetera, it's they're incredibly small population, if I
would guess probably one point one percent if that of
the population, So they're again they're a very very small group,
and so with that issue. But also I think that's
one of the issues that like, for example, folks on
the left that pushing it again it is kind of
really push more moderate Democrats or more socially conservative Democrats
(23:27):
out of that tent as the kind of pushing some
of these other, you know, issues. I will say, by
the way, I think the number is higher than point
one percent. I think actually, now they've done surveys about this, PEW,
I'm looking at a Pew survey about five percent of
young adults in the US consider themselves trans or non binary.
So it's certainly an issue that's coming up more and
more and more people are identifying that way. Let's go
(23:49):
to another call. Tim in Gilbert, Arizona is with us. Tim,
Welcome to the middle. Hello, Hello, hello, tell us what
is the what is the meaning of the election to you?
How do what do the results mean for you in
your community? So I'm a pretty young voter. This is
the first ever election where I voted in person. My
(24:11):
girlfriend and I just went down to the ballots together
for the first time in person. And for me, it's
it's been somewhat concerning because you know, I've I've always
you know, mean, lest my entire life in this election.
You know, I'm not thrilled with the candidate's election on
my side, but I also, you know, I recognize that
(24:31):
the opposing party in the Arizona election is a very
clear platform of you know, kind of these theories of
election fraud, and to me, that's just you know, to
elect those officials would be so damaging to the integrity
of our democracy. And you know, as a young person
participating in this process. It's just it's so concerning to
me to see that, you know, we're walking such a
(24:52):
fine line between these two parties in Arizona, and you know,
to me, it seems that the Republican Party in Arizona
is just you know, the consequences would just be damning
to you know, our our democratic process. Do you feel
like your you said that you're your first time voter, yes,
Do you feel like your vote will make a difference?
(25:17):
I think so. I'm given how tight of a race
it is, you know, we're we're still waiting for for
a good amount of the votes to come in. But
just looking at some of these preliminary results that have
come in from Arizona, you know, it's it's margins of
thousands of votes, which is I mean, that's that's barely anything.
I feel like, you know, so yeah, to see that,
and then just to think of how many young people
(25:38):
I know who you know, probably weren't at the polls yesterday,
just because I know, you know, voter engagement just isn't
where it ought to be with people my age. It's
just it's really concerting to see those one margins. Well, Tim,
thank you for for voting and thank you for calling.
And Mike, we did see in the last day or
so that the numbers are showing that more young people
(25:59):
turned out than in past elections. Well, yeah, we see that.
Obviously with the social media and ability to interconnect and
actually pass information much quicker that you can raise that awareness,
so that has helped increase turnout. Also the abortion issue
and of course threats to democracy which has been pushed along.
Member Arizona was home to the nationally watched audit that
(26:22):
was going on. So we spent after last election usually
you're done, and spent six months talking about it watching
that very unprofessional audit go happen, and it was interesting
that they found that, you know, there's no malfeasance going on. Plus,
Arizona is actually a really good election system in place,
and it's been good for some time and it's really
just been propagated due to really just you know, from
(26:47):
the powers that be over on the Republican side and
the mega side. But it is definitely concerning because if
you don't have trust in the electoral system, how do
you have a republic Let's go to line three here,
deb in Toledo, Ohio. Dev Welcome to the middle and
what do the election results mean for you? Hi, thanks
(27:08):
for having me on the program. I'm being in Ohio.
I was really sad to see Tim Ryan's loss because
I think that Jim Ryan sort of represents a way
forward for the Democratic Party in terms of he has
a real understanding, I think of working class people that
(27:29):
Democrats have sort of lost over the last several years.
But I also just wanted to say that I think
that his concession speech just show what a class act
he really is, because in his concession speech, he talked
about the fact that it was his privilege to concede
and to congratulate his opponent. Because in this country, when
(27:51):
the people have spoken, that's what we do is we
get over the loss and we move on. And I
think that's a message that this whole country really needs
to hear and pay attention to. Deep Thank you for
your call, Andra. She's talking about Tim Ryan, who's running
for Senate as a Democrat in Ohio lost that race
to the venture capitalist j d Vance, who had been
(28:13):
endorsed by Trump, and Tim Ryan came out and gave
this concession speech and said something to the effect of
it's an honor to give this speech. Because this is
what you do when you lose an election in this country.
What do you think of that? You know, I was
in Georgia, so I watched Stacy Abrams enough going on
in Georgia yourself, exactly right, Yeah, but well, I mean,
you know, the issue was is that that's come up
(28:34):
in the national precedent had become a talking point that
you know, if Donald Trump didn't concede the twenty twenty electible,
Stacey Abrams didn't either. And you know, having lived in
Georgia in twenty eighteen, you know what Abrams did was
acknowledge that she wasn't going to be the governor, even
though she thought it was unfair, and at the time,
she was convinced that enough of voters had been suppressed
or turned away from the polar discouraged from voting by
(28:55):
long lines, that if she was able to make a
case for it, that she might be able to kind
of like, you know, get their votes counted in some way,
shape or form. And you know, that proved to be
a feudal effort. But you know, ultimately, at the end
of the day, the way that that that I looked
at it was she acknowledged she wasn't going to win.
She wasn't plotting to you know, move into the governor's
mansion while Brian Kemp was being inaugurated. She certainly didn't
(29:19):
foment a riot in order to make that happen. But
this time around, that strategy, which you know, you know,
may not have been the most gracious, but was handled
very definitely and very professionally, because that's how Stacy Abrams
carries herself, you know, could still end up being weaponized
a few years later when other people were doing things
that were actually very very different and very very dangerous.
(29:41):
So I think it was really incumbent upon Democratic candidates
to last night, and as we're seeing election results come in,
model a different type of behavior to draw a sharp contrast.
That is Emery University political scientist Andrew Gillespie. And you're
listening to the Middle. We'll be right back. This is
(30:13):
the Middle. I'm Jeremy Hobson. We are live from kJ
ZZ and Phoenix, Arizona. We're asking you what the election
results mean for you and your community and what your
hopes are about what can happen now. Our number is
eight four four four Middle. That's eight four four four
six four three three five three. You can also reach
out to us at Listen to the Middle dot com.
Our guests are Arizona based polster Mike Noble and Emery
(30:36):
University political science professor Andrey Gillespie. Let's get back to
the phones, and we've got Alex here in Phoenix, Arizona. Alex,
Welcome to the Middle. Thanks for having me, Thank you
being here. The election results so far, obviously in Arizona
(30:57):
there's a lot of what's undecided, so locally I can't
speak to that, but nationally, I do think it's really notable.
What's hardening to me is the fact that a lot
of what I call election deniers have actually conceded their races.
I had a lot of concern before this election that
if that were to occur, we'd have a large swap
(31:18):
of candidates basically calling into question our election system as
a whole. And I am more positive about the rebustness
of our electoral system than I was before him. Great,
that's another call on that issue of people happy that
we're seeing concession speeches. I'm just going to go straight
(31:39):
into another call if I can. Here from Benjamin in
Oa Claire, Wisconsin. Benjamin welcome to the middle. What do
the election results mean for you? Thanks Jeremy. It's actually
a doctor faustic and I am a practicing ob G.
I n the Marshfield Clinic. I am incredibly relieved that
we uh, you know, have a democratic governor that will
(32:02):
be staying on in twenty vers as well as likely
democratic Attorney general, because right now I am unable to
practice medicine the way that I've always practiced and provide
the standard of care to women that may happen to
have a fetal cardiac myosite rhythmic beating. If I were
(32:26):
to do anything to that fetus, regardless of the women's status,
I could be you know, prosecuted, criminally, lose my license
and potentially end my career. And it's it's a it's
a literal day to day practice for me and a
life and death issue for my patients. So just a
real sense of relief that the Democrats look to have
(32:50):
held on to at least those positions. Hopefully the Republican
Party won't get a supermajority in both of the Senate
and the Assembly. And looking forward to the April election
of a new Supreme Court justice that may be able
to flip the composition of our state Supreme Court and
(33:12):
look into overturning that eighteen forty nine law. Let me
just ask you one question, what would you have done
if the Republican had won the governorship instead of Tony Evers?
Would have continued what we're doing now, which is unfortunately,
either you know, denying care to some patients at our
(33:33):
facilities or referring them over to the Twin Cities, which
thankfully is close enough that most patients can get to
fairly easily, but it is still a significant concern. Thank
you so much, and looking yeah, yeah, thanks for your call,
and let me go to you Andre, because you're in
(33:54):
a state that now does have much more restrictive abortion laws. Correct.
Following the DABS decision in Georgia. Correct In twenty nineteen,
the Georgia's legislature and Governor Bryant Kemp passed a law
that restricted abortion after the detection of a fetal heartbeat,
so at the six week mark. It was enjoined until
(34:16):
the DABS decision, and then after the DABS decision, the
current interpretation, which I believe, don't quote me on this
is still actually up for litigation, might open that up
to actually allow for the abortion ban to go into effect.
Do you think that do you think that voters made
different decisions about who they were voting for, let's say,
for the Senate or for governor if they lived in
(34:38):
a state like Georgia where there were more restrictive laws
after Dabbs, versus if they lived in a state like
Illinois where abortion was not an issue in the same
way because the laws didn't change Postdobs. I can't answer
that question right now. Political scientists do run a big
(34:58):
national survey that has suffic sample sizes in each congressional district.
I have no doubt that abortion questions were answered. Are
you know? We're asked on that survey, so you know,
within the next year or so, I expect that somebody
is going to be writing that paper that's actually going
to look at that data per each congressional district and
actually be able to answer that question. Mike, you haven't
done any pulling on that. Oh, We've asked a lot
(35:21):
of questions basically as we've we've tested in the states.
Is that you know, really, and it's funny a lot
of the answers, frankly, in politics are usually common sense
ones of that. You know, when you talk about how
this impact, like, once the thing's impact you, you start
paying attention. So when the law gets passed and again
ROVIE was talked about for four decades and then all
of a sudden it dropped in the middle of When
(35:42):
it did, it was kind of too late for folks
to kind of get ballot into ships on there. And
that's why I'll be a big twenty twenty four point.
But when you have that, and once you have certain
things impacting, they really start thinking, they start getting involved.
And actually, I wouldn't not be surprised whatsoever when the
results come out of some of these more larger studies
that it did in fact play an impact, especially again
(36:02):
those most impacted females, especially younger females and Republican female. Well,
and we haven't talked that much about inflation this hour,
but that is obviously something that impacts just about everybody
in this country in some way, especially people who are
lower on the economic ladder, where you know, the cost
of gas, the cost of milk, the cost of housing,
the cost of transportation really does affect what they are
(36:25):
able to do on a day to day basis. Let's
go to a call in Texas. Quinn is joining us. Quinn,
Welcome to the middle. What do the election results mean
for you? Hey, thanks so much for having me. Probably
appropriate for the title of your show. I found myself
kind of lamenting the loss of the middle. Generally, I
(36:48):
tend to be I want my government small, and I
don't want laws that the legislate my personal liberty. So
let family planning decisions be left to the family, and
if somebody wants to hunt, and let him make the
decision to go hunt. And I started looking through voting
records and issues, and it just seemed that generally my
(37:10):
choices were all very It was a very divisive lot,
like the rhetoric and the narrative is all or nothing,
far left or far right. And I got to thinking
about other geographies where they have multiparty systems, where there
may be six parties and they have to share power
and come to compromise, and I think maybe that's kind
(37:33):
of the recipe for finding the middle. And I just
didn't seem that I felt like I had candidates that
represented a common sense middle ground approach to our problem solving.
Can I ask who you voted for in the Texas
governor's race that a lot of people were watching between
Governor Greg Abbott who won and Beto O'Rourke who lost,
(37:55):
And there you go. I voted libertarian almost straight ticket,
largely because some of the rhetoric around gun policies from
Vetto were a little bit leftist for me. But on
the family planning issue, I couldn't in good conscious vote
for the incumbent and I would have basically written in
(38:17):
anybody except Dan Patrick. Well, that's very interesting, Quinn, Thank
you so much for calling andre I knew we'd get
to this issue, which is, you know, people not happy
with the two parties and they don't know what to do. Well,
I don't have a good answer for you, probably have
an answer that your listener will not like. The reason
(38:37):
why we have a two party system is because we
have single member districts in first past the post elections,
and that tends to lend itself to two dominant parties
emerging from that. And the proportional representation system that the
listener speaks about works very well in a parliamentary democracy
where the executive and the legislative branch are one and
(38:59):
the same. But our separation of powers would actually probably
make that a little bit more unwieldy here in the
United States. So moving to a multi party system, I
don't know is going to have the exact same type
of impact that the listener and visions. What I would say, though,
is that there may be other opportunities for people to
(39:19):
be able to exert influence on elections in other ways.
And so, you know, one of the ways that people
talk about this, and I will defer to my colleagues
who specialize in social choice to answer this question, but
you know, one way we could sort of alter our
election system to think about this a little bit differently
is to think about moving towards ranked choice voting, where
people where you have to get a clear majority of support,
(39:41):
but where people actually get to rank their choices. You know,
in a multiple field of candidates, it's likely going to
be Democrats and Republicans and who just have many of
them running, as we have seen happen in the places
where this is being used, like New York City, in
San Francisco and now Alaska. So you know, this is
an opportunity for people to say this is my first choice,
this person is my second choice, this person is my
(40:03):
third choice, and the hope of lots of proponents of
ranked choice voting is that it actually allows for the
moderate candidate, the compromise candidate too, if not outright win
on the first ballots, to perhaps end up being the
second or third choice and actually being able to cobble
together a victory there. Mike Dobell, what about the issue
of people not being able to find what they want
and the choices that are available to them, and do
(40:25):
you think ranked choice voting is the way forward? I
think rank choice voting definitely will help with the current system.
But it's actually one of the most common questions I
get asked in the last few years, and I've noticed
it's bubbled up more and more. But you see it
in the current numbers, for example like Arizona, Nevada. You
look at party registration levels, actually both Democrats and Republicans
are both dropping Independence or actually the fastest growing party.
(40:48):
But the problem is currently is that third party vote
share is at it's all time low. I mean the
heydays of Ross Perot, those are long gone and so
right now that what we're seeing is that there is
a clamoring for that. And you look at yeah, like
you look at in England or Israel, they have multiple parties. Heck,
in India they got like thirty over there. But it's
interesting when you have a lot more parties, it makes
(41:09):
you have to make deals and cobble together coalitions. Right now,
you got red team and blue teams. I like to
refer to mass and as they're getting pulled to their
respective fringes, the people are finding there's really not a
home for them and not much of a viable choice
in the middle. You know, we've got some comments coming
in online to this issue. Maggie and Wisconsin calls herself
a split ballot voter and she wishes there was a
(41:32):
candidate who would protect my uterus, the environment, and my
right to firearms. Let's go to Noah in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Noah,
welcome to the middle, and what do the election results
mean for you. I was happy to see Fetterman win.
I know that was really close and a lot of
(41:53):
people were concerned after the only one debate that they had,
you know, so it's really hoping for him to win,
especially now that I know you guys have a lot
of people who's talking about split ticket voting. You see
that at a big difference between Shapiro and Fetterman. Shapiro,
(42:13):
the governor, got more more votes from Democrats than Fetterman did.
It wasn't even close with Shapiro, but with Fetterman, as
you say, it was pretty close, right right. And I
just think I think the previous follower you were just
talking to talking about protecting her uterus and also her gun,
her gun rights. You know, I think I called previously
(42:36):
and talked about gun rights briefly to you know, I
left the message. But I think that you know, there's
room there. You know, was the ring choice voting and
and with the Georgia race, you know, going into a
runoff and they have two percent libertarian vote that they're
going to have to basically go for. I think that,
you know that that could be a you know, should
(42:58):
be a bigger thing and bigger growth and maybe a
third party or our fourth party or more parties. Is
there is there one thing? Is there one issue with
Fetterman that you're excited about now that he'll be in
the Senate. Yeah, I think that his stance on like
he has a libertarian Santon cannabis, you know, And I
(43:19):
think that you know, I used to be a Canvasser recently,
I switched jobs, but a top people where a lot
of people were talking about that was a top issue
for them, you know, just as like this, and they
used it medically for that nature and just taking away
the stigma or you know, allowing more people to have
jobs from that. So I think that he to think
(43:39):
he represents a good direction for the party picking up
you know, more role voters in that aspect, like a
libertarian way. No, thank you so much for that call.
I guess you know that as a that's a topic
we should talk about because honestly, a couple of states
at least yesterday voted to legalize marijuana, including Missouri, just
(43:59):
more and more and more. Is this an issue that
you think, Mike Noble, that we are going to see
federal action on? Is the Are the polls catching up
to the point are the people's attitudes changing to the
point where somebody's it's going to be a popular position
to say we're going to legalize it nationwide. That's a
great question, Jeremy. I think it is actually an inevitability.
So for Arizona, for example, for back in twenty sixteen,
(44:22):
it was on the ballot, it was closed and only
lost by like, you know, half a percentage point, came
back again and four years later and it passed with
sixty percent of the vote. And you know what is
kind of considered more conservative, right Arizona, And so I
think you're gonna because the way the folks view it,
it's kind of very normalize it. People kind of treat
it like alcohol. It's very similar in that respect, but
(44:45):
actually actually significantly safer. But I think it's it's an inevitability,
and I think it's going to happen sooner rather than later.
But I think more and more states are going to
be piling on as your years ago thinking. Yeah. So
even though it passes in three states, I believe it
also failed in the Dakotas, both north and South. I'd
behave So, you know, this still doesn't quite stem the
(45:09):
tide of it having been legalized in so many parts
of the country, but there is the potential for backlash
and not everybody seems to be completely on board with this.
And by the way, the middle is on all the
way across the Dakotas. So if you're in the Dakotas,
please write to us from either North Dakota or South
Dakota to listen to the middle dot com and let
us know what you think about those measures on cannabis.
(45:31):
Failing there, we have run out of time, which means, well,
we run out of time for the serious part, which
is the cause, which means we now have time for
the fun part, which is the Anthony Anthony Valades. It's
back with us with the most fun part of the show,
The Notorious Needle to be infamous. It is the infamous
and the Notorious Needle drop. Now here's what we're gonna do.
I'm gonna drop the needle in the middle of the record,
(45:54):
and I'm going to play a five second snippet. And
you need to tell me who this British band is,
which features and I Conic Phoenix born vocalists. Bonus points
if you can name her now a little hint. They
were inducted into the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame
in nineteen ninety eight. And for a little fun, because
you political folks are really good at this game, I'm
gonna play a remix version. All right, Jeremy Andre, Mike,
(46:14):
are you all ready to play the needle? All right?
Here we go, Okay, needle drop time. Who's the band.
Who's the artist to go? I'm gonna have to take
a pass. I was born in nineteen eighty four. Oh
my gosh, Andra, I don't know this on my own,
(46:38):
but the producer here is is telling me it's Fleetwood
mac Oh. That's not fair. That is not fair. That's
a friend. This isn't who wants to be a millionaire?
All right? Andre Gillespie at Emory University and Mike Noble
with O H Predictive Insights. Thank you both so much
for for your your the context you brought and your
(46:59):
ex for tease tonight. Thanks for having it. Thank you, Anthony.
Let's talk for a minute, because we just did four
live shows on over five hundred public radio stations with
no distributor. There's no NPR, no APM, no PRX. We
did this all by ourselves. It has never been done before.
We did it thanks to four wonderful public radio stations
that lent us their resources to make this happen. KJAZZ
(47:22):
and Phoenix, Kcure in Kansas City, WGCU and Fort Myers,
and of course WILLL in my hometown of Urbana, Illinois,
which helped us get all the shows up to the
satellite so that public radio stations could carry them live.
We did that all with this wonderful team Alex Ashlock,
John Bart, Sam Burmstaws, Ccfatape, Lisa Napoli, and Harrison Patino.
(47:43):
So what happens now, Anthony, what happens now? Well, we
would like to make this don't needle drop, I don't know.
We would like to make this into a regular program
in twenty twenty three to keep giving voice to so
many Americans in the middle, whether the geograph fuckle middle,
the political middle, the middle class, or just the middle
is a state of mind. We'd like to keep a
(48:05):
live national call in show on public radio. It has
not existed with this kind of reach since the end
of Talk of the Nation back in twenty thirteen. We
are going to need support to keep this going, so
we're gonna be on the hunt for funding. This isn't
a pledge drive. Don't worry unless you were a big
foundation and have a lot of money, in which case,
please call us. In the meantime, subscribe to our podcast
The Middle with Jeremy Hobson, reach out to us and
(48:27):
listen to the Middle dot Com. Tell us what you think, Anthony,
I want to Thank you so much for being a
part of this. Your energy is so infectious and the
music you brought was really wonderful. Thank you, Jeremy. Such
an honor and such an honor to hear from the
voices from everybody listening. Our theme music was composed by
Andrew Hague, our technical director here in Phoenix. Tra Van
here at KJAZZ also helped from Ben Overbon John Hoban,
(48:48):
one of the first station leaders to say Yes to
the Middle. Thanks also to WABE, KCRW, Jason Kropp and
Lilly Duncanson and the more than five hundred public radio
stations that made it possible for the whole country to
listen to the Middle. I'm Jeremy Hobson. I hope to
talk to you again very soon.
Host
Jeremy Hobson
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