February 6, 2025 • 64 mins
Nick Wright celebrates his 300th episode by breaking down every angle of Super Bowl LIX between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles. Then, Nick discusses where the Chiefs dynasty would rank historically with a win and whether or not this team is the greatest team ever. Later, Nick makes the case that Patrick Mahomes is already the GOAT and makes his official Super Bowl prediction. Finally, Nick and Damonza dig through a pile of prop bets to pick their favorites.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome In, We'll Driving the Great Episode three hundred on
the eve of a potential three peat for the Kansas
City Chiefs. Tuesday's pod was super NBA heavy. There's more
NBA stuff we could get to. It is trade deadline day, however,
it's also the last pod before the Super Bowl, so
(00:23):
we're when we go to what missed the cut, it's
going to be all the NBA stuff because this is
a super Bowl only dynasty goat gambling show. That's what
we're talking about, the game, legacy implications and bets you
should make as we get ready for Super Bowl fifty nine.
(00:44):
So what did miss the cut? Luca's introductory press conference
not on there, the rest of the NBA trade deadline
not on there. Demands you want to be tell it,
says demands. A coin toss equels good bet? Is this
an old take or a current take? Welcome in?
Speaker 2 (00:59):
Demand's the go ahead? Uh, thank you, pops, great bet.
I still stand by it. I mean you either it
or you don't see us or no, but Wales I
would go.
Speaker 1 (01:08):
With, uh, you want you want it right now? Yeah? Tails? Yeah,
you're taking tails? Yeah right, yeah, you got it. Listen,
it's twenty one dollars to win twenty. I'm charging your
minus one oh five juice like the So that's I
want it, you can have it.
Speaker 2 (01:26):
I thought it was even.
Speaker 1 (01:26):
Well, sports books are not going to give you true
even money. Oh they're Oh so the sports books they
are giving you even money on it. Yeah, they're giving
you a true even money wager.
Speaker 2 (01:38):
So I'll just little prob services to FanDuel.
Speaker 1 (01:40):
So it's almost like single uh single zero roulette, like
a three to two double deck blackjack, like it's like
old school Vegas.
Speaker 2 (01:51):
And the bat is a tail on the back of
the quarter of the original quarter has got very similar
wings to the Eagles logo.
Speaker 1 (01:58):
So oh intriguing. I didn't think about that. I thought
you were gonna say one side's heavier than the other.
So it's actually a smarter but doesn't matter. Like great
subscriber view. This has been one of our best subscription
and subscriber subscription and subscriber same thing weeks ever, so
we appreciate that it is episode three hundred and I'm
(02:20):
told we have a little look back coming, so demande
take it away.
Speaker 2 (02:24):
Yeah, so, I mean we have done three hundred episodes.
At the beginning of this podcast, the Rams had just
beaten the Bengals in the Super Bowl, and you were
talking about the Chiefs becoming a possible dynasty with what
comes next. So we've got a little sot we're gonna
play for you guys.
Speaker 1 (02:40):
Oh, let me hear now. As far as Chiefs dynasty,
I guess you know, how do you define dynasty? If
the Chiefs win the Super Bowl this next year? Is
that a dynasty? If in four years or the five
years since Mahomes was the starter, they made three super Bowls,
won two of them and made five conference championship games,
is that a dynasty? I don't know. If they were
(03:01):
to win the next to it obviously is. But winning
back to back's really hard. So dynasty to me is
not the most important thing here. Most important thing is
can that Chiefs from multiple Super Bowls? Wow?
Speaker 2 (03:14):
What I'm looking at where you're at now?
Speaker 1 (03:17):
You know? But what a moment. And also that was
definitely pre never a doubt era because and again even
in the home setup, I can't figure out how to
show this. Damn. I've never learned how to show my
arm to the camera. You could see my arm. In
this week's Washington Post that picture in the post of
my tattoo looked awesome. I've never looked more badass than
(03:39):
that picture in the post. I feel like they photoshopped
my forearms out here looking like Brad pitt On once
onon a time in Hollywood. H And So what I
said there was, if they win the next one, maybe
it's a dynasty. If they win the next two, obviously
(04:03):
two dynasty. But it's really hard to win back to back.
And now we sit here on the precipice of three
in a row. Man. That really that really great man. Yeah,
it also remind you how lucky we are. I mean,
(04:24):
that was a that was a that was coming off
the worst loss in my opinion, of the entire Mahomes era,
there have only been three losses, three playoff losses in
the Mahomes era. The first one was kind of the
way sports should be, Like, Mahomes was great, but they
(04:49):
didn't kill the Patriots dead. And then it goes to
overtime and we're gonna actually later in this podcast talk
about that exact game, the twenty eighteen AFC Championship Game,
because it is such an important one in the story
of Mahomes and in the goat argument and all of it,
(05:10):
and then Brady wins the coin toss. The Chiefs never
get the ball, he goes right down the field. They
win the game. Uh lost number two. The Chiefs were
never in it. And you can put that on Patrick
if you want. That'd be ridiculous. They couldn't block Tampa
and it was thirty one to nine. Oh yeah, be
in the super Bowl and lost. Number three is the
(05:32):
only one that still It's like, what the what happened?
They were up twenty one to three on Cincinnati. They
then had an opportunity to score right before the half.
Mahomes made a mistake, like there was seven seconds before
the half. You can take one more shot to the
(05:54):
end zone. He threw it short of the end zone.
They run out of time. He and the enemy getting
a bit of an argument going into the tunnel. They
should have at least gotten three and then they fall
apart and they lose. They get to overtime, win the
coin toss. In overtime, you have third and ten. Mahomes
blows a perfect ball to Tyreek, goes off his hands,
(06:15):
the Bengals interception in four plays letter Bengals kicking the
field goal season over and it's like, oh my god,
what just happened? And that also they then traded Tyreek
killins the last playoff game they lost, and so from
that moment forward they won nine consecutive playoff games. No, Listen,
the Patriots won ten playoff games in a row, but
(06:37):
in the middle of that they missed the playoffs. So
as far as over three without ever missing the playoffs,
they're on the longest playoff winning streak ever. If they
win the super Bowl, it's the longest playoff winning streak ever,
whether you miss the playoffs or not. All the history
stuff is coming later. The actual game breakdown is coming
(06:59):
right now. So go ahead, demonsay.
Speaker 2 (07:01):
Yeah, on Tuesday's pod, you said that you felt either
team could win. You obviously are gonna go with the
Chiefs here, But what how do you see the game
playing out? Actually?
Speaker 1 (07:10):
All right, so let's You're right, I'm obviously gonna go
with the Chiefs. But let's talk about what would have
to happen for the Eagles to win. First. Okay, where
the Eagles the matchups the Eagles can win. Okay that
(07:34):
the first thing that would have to happen is Jalen Carter,
the Eagles great young defensive tackle would have to dominate
his matchup on the inside, whether it be Trey Smith
or Mike Calliando. Jalen Carter would have to dominate that
(07:54):
matchup and really push, get up, push from the interior
of the pocket to get Mahomes off this spot and
get Mahomes uneasy. Jordan Davis, the other excellent Georgia d tackle,
not nearly as good as Jalen Carter, but good player
(08:16):
would have to stuff the run and force the Chiefs
into an exclusive drop back passing game. And even if
those things happen, it doesn't tilt the scales enough defensively
for Philly. The other thing that would have to happen
is Slay and Quinnyon Mitchell would have to consistently win
(08:43):
one on one with the Chiefs outside receivers Hollywood and
Xavier Worthy and allow them to double Travis with Chauncey
Gardner Johnson being the safety help. That is the recipe
for the Eagles to slow down the Chiefs offense. It's
(09:07):
incredibly difficult to do, but that's how they would do it.
Flip side, when the Eagles have the ball, it's far
more straightforward what they would have to do that. I
do not think they're going to be able to do
what they've done to everyone, which is Saquon just kill them.
(09:35):
That is, the Chiefs are too well coached, too good
of a tackling team for Saquon to just butt break
out these twenty forty sixty yard runs. What they could do, however,
is Saquon consistently keep them ahead of the sticks and
(09:55):
get them in second and six, and then third and
two and on a few of those run past downs.
One of the things that makes the Eagles so difficult
to deal with is they are just they stay consistently
in a down and distance where you could run or
(10:17):
pass right, and so the defense is gonna pick your
poison situation. And if on some of those downs where
if Saquan has just been getting four, six eight yards
of pop, the Chiefs sell out to stop him and
aj Brown gets deep down the sideline, then you pop
a big play. So that's the recipe for Philadelphia, a
(10:43):
lot of Saquon pop the big play, your best players
on defense playing like your best players. That's the recipe
for Philadelphia. That makes you nervous if you're a Chiefs fan.
The problem in My opinion for the Eagles in this
spot is there are just too many other ways for
(11:06):
Kansas City to beat them. So here's what I think
is going to happen. I think Chris Jones is going
to dominate his matchup. I think that with the Eagles
interior offensive linemen not being one hundred percent even if
(11:28):
you expect them all to play. Talking about Dickerson and
Cam Jurgens, I think Chris Jones is going to wreak havoc.
Jalen Hurts all year has been one of the most
efficient quarterbacks in the league when not pressured, and one
of the least efficient quarterbacks in the league win pressured.
(11:52):
The Chief's ability to get to the quarterback has changed
dramatically since Charles Amena, who came back from his tour
ACL You have a minil who carloftis, Michael Dana all
rotating on as defensive ends. You have Chris Jones, one
(12:13):
of the best players in league history, at the peak
of his powers, wreaking havoc up the middle, and all
of a sudden, you find yourself in must pass spots
and where the Chiefs have been unbelievable and what I
imagine they will do is trust Trent McDuffie to cover
(12:38):
DeVante Smith one on one, use Jalen Watson along with
the safety to double A. J. Brown, and dare Jalen
Hurts to throw the ball over the middle of the
field where he's not comfortable throwing. He likes throwing outside
into the sidelines. And I think defensively, the Chiefs are
(13:03):
going to be far and away the biggest challenge Philadelphia
has dealt with this postseason flip side when kan City
has the ball. This is not so much deep x's
and o's analysis as much as it is you have
(13:23):
one of the greatest athletes and maybe more important, one
of the greatest competitors in the history of sports, who knows,
probably this is my only chance to do this. Patrick
Mahomes walks onto this field knowing I probably I could
(13:50):
play thirty more years and I probably will never have
another chance where if I win one game, I three
p where I win one game, we become the greatest
team in NFL history. And I think a dialed Patrick.
When you add to it, Vic Fangio's running this defense.
(14:14):
Vic Fangio his teams have played Patrick eight times. They
are zero to eight. Patrick has played this defense more
than he's played any other defense in the league because
the Fangio kind of too high safety make him take
(14:36):
the short stuff. Defense used to give Patrick real trouble.
So everyone started doing it, so Patrick learned how to
deal with it. Well, now you've taught the guy and
given him immense experience against it, and now in the
biggest game of his life, he's up against it. You
(15:00):
add to it a fresh Travis Kelcey and a fully
whole receiving corps for the first time really all year.
I think the Chiefs are gonna be able to move
the football. And if they are able to move the
football through the air the way I think they're going
(15:21):
to be able to, it will open up some run
looks for Kareem Hunt more than Isaiah Pacheco. And then
you add the ultimate X factor, which is the greatest
postseason rushing quarterback ever is Patrick Mahomes and it is
(15:42):
a superpower. He saves for the postseason, but it is
so hard to account for. And unlike the last time
they played the Philadelphia Eagles, he's fully healthy, and unlike
the last Super Bowl they played against San Francisco, he
(16:03):
doesn't have an entire position group openly revolting against him,
and they're not coming off back to back to back
brutal games that they had to kill themselves to win
Super Bowl Him. Well, I mean last year it was
just I mean, it was just drop after drop after drop.
Speaker 2 (16:24):
Crazy.
Speaker 1 (16:25):
And last year, remember the route to the super Bowl
was the coldest game played in the NFL in thirty years,
followed by Road Buffalo Nip and Tuck Road Baltimore. The
route to the super Bowl this year was back to
(16:48):
back bye weeks, followed by Houston at home and then
Buffalo at home. Not the same. So they come in fresher,
they come in healthier, and the Eagles got here a
lot of different ways. But here's one of them demons.
This number will blow your mind. In these playoffs, the
(17:12):
Eagles have committed zero turnovers. That's not shocking, that won't
blow your mind. That's a good team. They have forced
or received some force some given ten. The Eagles are
plus ten in the turnover margin in these three playoff games.
The chiefs in these playoffs have forced zero turnovers. They
(17:38):
have committed one. So the Eagles got to the super
Bowl being plus ten in the turnover battle. The Chiefs
got to the Super Bowl being minus one in the
turnover battle.
Speaker 2 (17:50):
They are the Chiefs are going to force the turnover
for the Eagles.
Speaker 1 (17:54):
Well, I think this I didn't got The Chiefs don't
have to win the turnover battle to win, but if
they win the turnover battle, they can't lose. Again. My
favorite stat in football right now is this one. During
the run to the three peat, there have been twenty
(18:15):
three games the Chiefs lost the turnover battle playoffs in
regular season last three years. In those twenty three games,
they are a good but not great thirteen and nine.
Now that is a great record in games you lose
the turnover battle, but thirteen and nine is not. You know,
that's like a eleven and six pace, ten and seven
(18:38):
pace right In games they win or tie the turnover battle.
Over the last three years, the Kansas City Chiefs are
thirty four and one and the one loss was Week
one against Detroit two years ago when the one turnover
(18:58):
was a pick six. So if the if the Chiefs
don't commit turnovers, they can't lose. They are undefeated. In
games they don't turn the ball over, they are thirty
four and one. In games they don't lose the turnover battle.
So now you can say, well, Philadelphia is averaging, you know,
(19:21):
forcing on average more than three game in the playoffs.
I don't think that's I don't think that's gonna keep
up this week. And so all those reasons, I like
Kansas City to score. I like Kansas City to score
a season high in points. I think Kansas City gets
to thirty four in this game. If you guys remember
(19:43):
in the Bills game, I predicted thirty one. They got
to thirty two, thirty four in this game. And I
think this is a if I give you a score
right now, I probably should do this later. But I'm
gonna say thirty four four Kansas City not an easy win.
(20:03):
I am not arguing that, but oh game that ends
up being a ten point margin. One other note about
the Chiefs in Super Bowls down double digits, every single
one of them against the Niners, down twenty to ten
with seven minutes left, and won the game thirty one
(20:27):
to twenty one of the craziest results honestly in league history.
Down twenty to ten seven minutes left in the game,
won the game thirty one to twenty. Zero defensive scores
involved against the Eagles. The first time everyone talks about
that Jalen Hurts fumble score flipping the game. The Eagles
(20:50):
were up fourteen to seven when that happened. The Chiefs
scooped and scored, and it's fourteen to fourteen. The Eagles
went into half up twenty four to fourteen. They rallied, recovered,
had a ten point lead going into the half, and
the Chiefs then and probably my favorite that.
Speaker 2 (21:11):
Say it again, they also got blessed there after they
got in scoring position off an incomplete pass. But what
do you mean the DeVante that didn't lead to a touchdown?
I guess, I guess it's minor. But they were saying that,
which one the DeVante Smith caught a pass off the sideline.
It was for like forty yards and it was incomplete
and it was complete Eagles.
Speaker 1 (21:32):
Yeah, yes, ye, yeah, sorry, I didn't I didn't know
what you're doing about. Yeah. Yeah, they very small. They
called it at the point they know still it's something
and then no. But my favorite stat of all these
chief stances are the second half of the Eagles Super Bowl.
(21:53):
They got every single yard they could have gotten, meaning
if you get the ball on your own thirty you
can get seventy yards on that possession. If you get
the ball on your own twenty two, you can get
seventy eight yards on that possession. In the second half,
the Chiefs got every single yard they could get on
(22:15):
every single drive except for the final yard on the
final drive because they went down so they could kick
the field goal. The Eagles couldn't stop. In the second half.
Mahomes was an absolute machine. And then the Niners Super Bowl,
they were down ten as well, and Mahomes threw a
pick and they came back. So I we have yet
(22:40):
to see a great first half from Patrick in a
Super Bowl. I think we see it and the Chiefs
win thirty four to twenty four. All right, demonse, Let's
move on to some history stuff.
Speaker 2 (22:54):
All right, So people can hate and say whatever they
want to say if they end up th repeating. But
if they do end up repeating, what is it? What
does this put the franchise historically in my homes? Let's
start with the franchise, Yeah, franchise, Yeah.
Speaker 1 (23:10):
Well, as far as where it is amongst all time
NFL franchises, we'll go kind of macro macro to micro
and down all time NFL franchises. If the Chiefs pull
this off, I believe.
Speaker 2 (23:30):
That only.
Speaker 1 (23:36):
The Niners and the Cowboys will have definitive case for
better historic franchises. And you might say, why the Cowboys
or the cow Because the Cowboys were unbelievable across multiple
(23:57):
ears that were unbelievable in the seventies, they were unbelievable
in the nineties, and they have managed to stay relevant
for the last twenty five years. The Niners had the
unbelievable run of the eighties, they were great in the
nineties and won a Super Bowl. They have been to
three Super Bowls in the two thousands. And you might say,
(24:20):
why am I not including Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh did a disproportionate
amount of it. Well, I want to be fair here.
Pittsburgh and the Chiefs I think actually would be I
guess similar just with the recency bias being on Kansas
City side. Pittsburgh did all that work in the seventies
(24:43):
and then was really good and consistent in the aughts, Like, yeah,
maybe Pittsburgh would have six super Bowls kin Stidy would
have five. I guess Pittsburgh's got to be there. And
then you say the Patriots, I think you can put
the Chiefs head to head with the Patriots, even though
(25:04):
the Patriots have six because the Chiefs were great at
the very beginning of the league. We're in Super Bowl one, one,
super Bowl four and then have the greatest stretch of
football in the history of the league. But they here's
you know what, let's redo that. Not redo that, but
let me rephrase it. They become a gold standard franchise.
(25:29):
We don't need to rank them. But the gold standard
franchises in the NFL right now are the Niners, the Steelers,
the Cowboys, the Patriots, the Packers. That's them. The Chiefs
join that group and you can't argue against it. They
(25:50):
are in that tier. And then we could rank them
however we wanted to. All right, So that's franchise. Now
we go to dynasty. It's the greatest dynasty in football history.
If they win. Now people are going to make the argument, no,
New England's is New England's is not one dynasty, and
(26:14):
I will go to my grave believing it. Because here's
the thing people don't want or I don't want to say,
don't want to think about, but I think don't remember
about the Patriots run everyone knows. They didn't win a
Super Bowl for a decade from you know, after the
(26:36):
four to one, they didn't win another one until fourteen.
That's not the disqualifying That's not why it's two separate dynasties.
It's two separate dynasties because five to twenty ten was
bad and it so let me walk you through why
you have to separate the dynasties. For New England, one
(26:57):
to four is a dynasty. And and then you can
either say eleven to eighteen, twelve to eighteen, or the
accurate way to put it is fourteen to eighteen. That's
the dynasty. But one to two or five to twenty ten.
Here is what happened to the Patriots going for a
three peat. They get clocked in round two by Jake Plumber.
(27:24):
They were ten and six, they had to play in
the wild card round and Jake Plumber and the Broncos
ended their quested history. So for some like the comp
to that would have been if this year the Chiefs
were a middling team that won their Round one playoff
(27:45):
game and then in round two Russell Wilson in the
Steelers beat him. Kind of put a sour taste in
your mouth on the season, but you're owing for a
three peat. Then next year six they are up twenty
one to three in the AFC Championship Game. This happened
(28:07):
to the Chiefs and they lost to Peyton Manning. He
came all the way back. The next year they were undefeated,
playing a ten win Giants team in the Super Bowl
as fourteen point favorites and lost. Next year, insane, that
(28:32):
demands what's crazy about that? Is that used to happen
all the time. Remind me to come back to that.
Remind me when I finished this. The next year, two
thousand and eight, they missed the playoffs. The next year,
two thousand and nine, they lose in Round one by
(28:52):
nineteen points to Joe Flacco. The next year, in twenty ten,
they get the buye. They're the number one seed, and
they lose their first playoff game at home to Mark Sanchez.
So don't tell me your one dynasty. If a six
(29:16):
year stretch of that dynasty, you have wait, hold on one, two, three, Yeah,
six year stretch of that dynasty. Three years, you don't
win a single playoff game. One year a fourth year,
I should say, you don't make it to the conference
(29:36):
Championship Game. The year you do make it to the
conference championship game, you blow a twenty one to three lead.
And the year you do make it to the Super Bowl,
you have one of the most disappointing Super Bowl performances ever.
And when the quarterbacks who sent you home in your
playoff losses were Peyton Manning, who's awesome, and then Joe Flacco,
(29:59):
Eli Mann who at that point had done nothing, uh,
Jake Plumber and Mark Sanchez. So the Patriots dynasty is
one to four and then fourteen to eighteen. And what
a dynasty looks like is what they did fourteen to eighteen.
Fourteen win the Super Bowl fifteen, lose in the AFC
(30:21):
Championship Game by two sixteen, win the Super Bowl seventeen,
lose the Super Bowl eighteen, win the Super Bowl. Those
are your two dynasties for New England. Okay, the Patriots
are the chief six year run win Super Bowl, lose
Super Bowl, lose in overtime at the conference title game,
(30:44):
win Super Bowl, win, super Bowl wins super Bowl. Nothing
comes close to it, nothing, not even the Steelers of
the seventies who went back to back then missed it
by two years. And then back to back again because
the that if we're again we got to pick nits.
Here they went to four, the Chiefs will have gone
(31:05):
to five. And those Steelers' two playoff losses were in
the conference championship game by seventeen and a road Round
one playoff game by thirteen. So the Steelers are out
of there. If the Chiefs win this, that trump's that.
(31:25):
And you say that the Niners in the eighties, the
Niners won four, went to just four and it was
over nine years. So it is the greatest dynasty ever.
That's not for debate. I would argue this, and this
would be for debate. They become the greatest team in
(31:45):
the history of the league this year, this team, and
people are going to push back. The argument for it
is the following. No team will have ever won more
games in a season than the Chiefs. And it's not
because of the extra game, because they didn't even play
their guys in the extra game. They lost it. Anyway,
(32:08):
they would have beaten ten won ten games against playoff teams.
One team all year would have beaten them straight up,
and they then beat that team in the playoffs. They
would be doing it under the weight of going for
a three peat. They would be doing it under the
(32:30):
weight of catastrophic injuries to one side of the ball
at the beginning of the season. They would be doing
it in today's media climate, which is so so different
and so much more day to day pressure and stress
(32:51):
and all of it. And they would have done it
when the league is built to prevent this exact thing.
They would have done it playing a game on every
single day of the week. They would have done it
without any any scandal, correct and so, and they would
(33:18):
have They would have done it against all odds and
with not even anything close to like an easy draw.
They got the best team in the NFC in the
Super Bowl. With respect to the Lions. The Lions weren't
the best team after the injuries and they had to
(33:41):
go through Buffalo. So I think it'd be the greatest
team ever. Now I do want to tell you just
quick sidebar year by year super boring. Yeah, so, uh,
this will blow your mind demand because it great. We eat.
Super Bowls are something you get to grow up with.
(34:05):
I did not, so super Bowls were just constantly blowouts
forever likes no fun. Here's some super Bowl scores. Demanse
starting in the mid eighties Okay Raiders thirty eight, Washington nine,
San Francisco thirty eight, Miami sixteen, Chicago forty six, New
(34:28):
England ten Giants thirty nine, Denver twenty, Washington forty two,
Denver ten. These are in order. San Francisco twenty, cinc.
Ninety sixteen a good one, San Francisco fifty five, Denver
ten Giants twenty, Buffalo nineteen and then Buffalo after losing that.
(34:48):
They lost that they had a field goal at the
gun to win it, nor would missed it. They then
went to three more in a row. They lost thirty
seven to twenty four, fifty two to seventeen, th to thirteen,
San Francisco forty nine, San Diego twenty six just blowout city. Well,
my whole life's.
Speaker 2 (35:08):
Going on there? Why is that? Was it?
Speaker 1 (35:09):
Because the NFP was dramatically better than the AFC, And
that's why, I mean, the NFC won every Super Bowl
from eighty four till I'm looking ninety seven. So the
(35:31):
NFC won fourteen in a row or thirteen in a row.
But here are the point spreads. Demanse just San Francisco
favored by twelve, one by forty five, Dallas favored by
ten and a half, one by seventeen. San Francisco favored
by eighteen and a half, one by twenty three, eighteen
(35:53):
and a half point line in the super Bowl. It's
super Bowl. We were like Dallas favored by thirteen and
a half, won by ten. Green Bay favored by fourteen,
one by fourteen. This one will blow your mind. Green
Bay favored by eleven. Lost, damn to Denver, all right,
(36:13):
charge tables, the Tables of Christ. And then and then
it happened again. Saint Louis favored by fourteen over Brady's
Patriots lost, Greatest Show on Turf favored by fourteen and lost.
And then obviously famously, New England favored by I guess
it ended up going off at twelve. They lost. But
(36:35):
we haven't had a Super Bowl since New England was
favored by twelve and the seven Super Bowl the next
year Pittsburgh is favored by seven. They won by four.
We have not had a single Super Bowl with a
favorite of more than four and a half. And that
also kind of speaks to why this should be impossible
(37:00):
because the league is so different. Now everything's supposed to
be close. You just know close super Bowls, and the
Super Bowl lines have been you know, Niners by two,
Eagles by two, Rams by four, Kse by three, Case
by one and a half, New England by two and
a half, New England by four, and app New England
by three, Carolina by four and a half, Seattle by one,
(37:22):
Denver by two, like as opposed to these giant spreads
of when I was a kid. And so the I mean,
that's just, by the way, the most famous game maybe
in NFL history. You've seen the picture of Joe Namat
Demonse running off the field pointless. Finger Jets Colts Baltimore
(37:43):
was favored by eighteen. They scored seven in the game,
lost sixteen to seven. And so it just sounds like Vegas.
Speaker 2 (37:55):
I don't know, man.
Speaker 1 (37:58):
Well the I mean, well, you see in the eighties
and the early nineties, they couldn't set a line high enough.
Like I was telling you, all these teams that were
favored by double digits, they just kept covering. Chicago favored
by ten, they win by thirty six. The Giants favored
by nine and a half, they win by nineteen. San
Francisco favored by twelve, they win by forty five points.
(38:21):
You can't set a lot like they try to set
a line in San Francisco. Favored by eighteen and a half,
they win by twenty three. Like you just couldn't set
a line high enough. And so yeah, you could just it.
Speaker 2 (38:36):
Was I mean even regular season games like it's rare
that you get.
Speaker 1 (38:39):
Never plus eighteen, they never do. That's what I'm so,
that's why this that's why this was actually a good
exercise because it speaks to why what the Chiefs are
doing should be impossible, right because all the games it's
so different. Now you don't get these games where you're
just a huge, huge favorite. All right, let's let's talk.
(39:02):
We're going too long. Let's talk Patrick here before we
get to our bets.
Speaker 2 (39:06):
So yeah, earlier, earlier this week, you made the point
of with the three peet in the wind, that Patrick
Mahomes would be the unanimous goat. But it died to
be a little difficult to call in the unanimous goat
considering Brady as seven and you know, the head to head,
So I want to talk about that.
Speaker 1 (39:22):
I don't think it'll be unanimous, but I think here's
what I think. I think that if you truth serumed
football fans who's the best player you've ever seen? Mahomes
would win that. I think that.
Speaker 2 (39:45):
People are lying when they say Patrick Mahomes isn't the
greatest be.
Speaker 1 (39:49):
Like, well, I think that they are being too uh
reliant or dedicated to the hardware. But I which the
hard ware does matter. But I so I'll take a
step further. I think if you told people, hey, here's
the deal, weird scenario, but I have access to give
(40:14):
you any player ever, and I can't tell you what
type of team or what team I'm dropping them on,
but I can tell you this. You get to pick
one player, and if that team wins, you get a
(40:36):
million dollars. Who are you picking which player? Any position,
any era, and I'm not telling you where when the
game is playing, who they're against, who's on their team.
I think people would pick peak Mahomes over Peak Brady,
(41:00):
and I don't think that would be particularly close. I
also think that this is a relevant data point, which
is Tom Brady, who is amazing, went to ten Super
Bowls and won seven. Do you know how many of
(41:22):
those teams did not have a top eight scoring defense?
Top eight? So the reason I said top eight is
there's thirty two teams that's top quarter of the league
right ten super Bowl appearances, seven ranks. One team that
he took to a Super Bowl did not have a
(41:43):
top eight scoring defense. Zero teams that he won a
championship with did not have a top eight scoring defense.
Patrick Mahomes has just now recently had really good defenses.
Patrick Mahomes has already been to two Super Bowls and
one Wondering without a top eight scoring defense. For all
of Tom Brady's amazing playoff numbers, he is he is
(42:07):
six and five in his career in the playoffs without
a top eight scoring defense. Mahomes is six and two,
So he's already won as many playoff games as Tom
did his whole twenty some year career without a top
eight scoring defense. So people are going to bring up
the head to head and the Super Bowls, the Super Bowl,
(42:28):
Brady was very good, Mahomes was running for his life
and was not. And if people want to say that's
you know that one game determines it, so be it.
But if people are going to argue the two to
zero piece of it, I am going to not only
ask them to go back and watch that Chiefs Patriots
(42:49):
AFC Championship game, but I am going to remind them
of this. Tom Brady in that game through one touchdown,
had two picks and threw the pick to lose the
game that was nullified by a correct but meaningless DFOURD
off sides penalty. He had a seventy seven rating. Patrick
Mahons had three touchdowns, zero picks in a one to
(43:10):
seventeen rating. And that was actually the game demands a
that set the legend of Mahomes in the playoffs late,
because here's the situation. Patrick Mahomes, in his first year
as a starter with one of the worst defenses in
the league, found himself down ten going into the fourth
quarter against Tom Brady. He led the Chiefs all the
(43:33):
way back and they took the lead midway through the fourth.
The Chiefs defense then immediately gave up a touchdown with
three point thirty two left in the game. Patrick Mahomes
in ninety seconds drove them down the field to take
the lead with two minutes left. The Chiefs defense then
immediately gave up a touchdown and Patrick Mahomes found himself
(43:58):
in his second playoff game in the AFC Championship game
in his first year as a starter down three with
thirty seconds left at his own thirty yard line with
one time out, and he got him in field goal
range twenty one seconds later, and they tied the game.
(44:22):
And then they go to overtime, coin toss, didn't get
the ball. Brady third and ten completion to Edelman, third
and ten completion to Edelman, third and ten completion to
Gronk and I'm a puddle on the ground. Game over.
They and they won, and they earned it. But Patrick
(44:42):
Mahomes in that game threw more touchdown passes then Tom
Brady did his entire postseason run to the Super Bowl
his first year as a starter. And so if we
want to if we're gonna say the head to head matters,
the fair reading of it is, in the regular season,
(45:06):
it's three to one Patrick, and in the postseason it's
two oh Tom. But Patrick thoroughly outplayed Tom the first
time they met, and Tom thoroughly outplayed Patrick the second
time they met. So that's to me, not as drastic
(45:29):
as folks want to make it. The other argument people
will make is man, Tom Brady walked into a disaster situation.
Mahomes walked into an amazing situation. One way to look
at it. Another way to look at it is this
Tom Brady walked into a franchise that had been that
was in the Super Bowl six years prior. It was
a franchise and it was in another Super Bowl a
(45:52):
decade before that. When Patrick Mahomes took over for Alex Smith.
I'll put it in terms of I was thirty four
years old. Okay, I was thirty four years old when
Patrick Mahomes took over. The Chiefs had won one playoff
(46:16):
game since I was nine. Patrick Mahomes took over for
a franchise that had won one playoff game in twenty
five years of football. They have now since he's been there,
won seventeen playoff games. Patrick Mahomes took over for a
(46:37):
team that before he had gotten there, had been to
the AFC Championship Game once in fifty years. They've now
been there seven times in a row. Patrick Mahomes took
over for a team that had been to zero Super
Bowls in the fifty years before he got there. They've
(46:57):
now been to five in the last six years. Patrick
Mahomes took over a team that had won one Super
Bowl ever, and it was fifty years prior. They have
now won three and on the precipice of four. There
is not a single thing Tom Brady could do on
the football field that Patrick Mahomes can't. There are a
(47:21):
few things Patrick Mahomes can do that Tom Brady can't.
Patrick Mahomes has won a Super Bowl with the terrible defense.
Patrick Mahomes has won a Super Bowl with bombs away.
Patrick Mahomes won a Super Bowl dinking and dunking. The
absolute floor for Patrick Mahomes is make the AFC Championship game.
(47:46):
Tom Brady missed the playoffs when he was defending his
first title. So if they pull off a three peat,
if they do this under these auspices of how the
(48:11):
NFL tries to make this impossible, not only are they
the greatest team ever, He's the greatest player in the
history of the league, and deep down I think everyone
will know it. This episode of wat Trot has brought
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Let's get to the gambling show playoffs nine to three
(49:38):
and one, No Shame, No? Nine? What am I? All right? No? Eight?
Three and one. In the playoffs, No shame in that
not gonna be able to get obviously didn't wasn't perfect
and not gonna get to the ten wins. But I
really am only focused on the ninth. Uh you but
go ahead, you can ask me official pick and e else.
(50:00):
Go ahead.
Speaker 2 (50:00):
This is uh just a formality here. But you know
you've got the Chiefs, uh dear, what's your I mean,
what's your official peak? I mean you've got Chiefs minus
one and a half.
Speaker 1 (50:09):
Thirty four to twenty four, Kansas City, Kansas City minus
one and a half. Obviously, this game demands does really
put my never hedge position uh to the test.
Speaker 2 (50:27):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (50:28):
So here's so here's why I'll share something with the audience.
If they've been watching this long, they deserve to hear it.
So you know, I'm in that that gambling group, right,
a bunch of guys that we all the no not survivors,
just like a big group chat where we you know,
bet futures with each other. But the other thing we
(50:51):
do is you can trade teams. So as of for instance,
the going into the playoffs, the Chiefs and the Lions
had very similar Super Bowl lones. So let me just
explain this group to the audience real quick. The way
this works is bets work as stocks, where they if
(51:16):
they if a bet wins, it's worth one hundred dollars
a share, and if it loses, it's worth zero dollars
a share, and it trades throughout the year. So like,
if the Chiefs are ten to one to win the
super Bowl, then they would be worth essentially nine dollars
a share. And then if they at some point are
(51:38):
five to one to win the super Bowl and they're
like eighteen dollars a share, then I could you can
sell it and whatever. Again, it's complicated, doesn't matter. Point
is this, You can also trade. So like all give
you one hundred shares of the Lions. If you give
me one hundred shares of the Chiefs, meaning hundred times
(52:00):
one hundred is ten thousand. Meaning if the Lions win
the super Bowl, I would if I gave someone a
hundred sold someone one hundred shares of the Lions, I
would owe them ten thousand dollars. If the Chiefs win
the Super Bowl, they would owe me ten thousand dollars.
And if anything else happens, there's no action, no money
changes hands, whatever it is, So I give that whole
(52:22):
context to say this. Now, I am now in a
position where let me check my ledger. Because I traded
the Lions with a handful of people, I also got
the Chiefs at a few moments where they're on to dipped,
like six to one, seven to one. Essentially, this where
(52:43):
I find myself where once again we have a real
big number on the Chiefs to win that I can
win a big number and I can't really lose that much.
So it is let me do the actual math on this.
I essentially have the short version of this would be
(53:06):
I essentially have the Chiefs at effectively eight to one
to win the super Bowl. That's how all the math
of this ends up sorting out. So I could bet
a relatively small amount on the Eagles to win this
game to just guarantee that I don't actually lose money
(53:28):
on the Super Bowl. I could bet a big amount
on the Eagles to win this game to lock in
a very good profit because I have one side at
eight to one and it's essentially an even money game.
Or I could do absolutely nothing and just let it
(53:48):
ride and trust in the three peat. I'm obviously gonna
do absolutely nothing and let it ride and trust in
the three peat. But it is it would be Chiefs
winning would make it the only bigger win of my life.
Would have been betting Biden to win the election after
(54:08):
the election had been called four years ago. It'll be
the second biggest gambling hit of my life if the
Chiefs win.
Speaker 2 (54:16):
A while ago. This is before the season, I imagine.
Speaker 1 (54:20):
It was before the season, was during It's a bunch
of it's accumulation of bets. It's you know what I mean,
some before the season, some during the season when the
Chiefs odds drops a lot of Chiefs swaps. I had
a bunch of swaps for the I'll give you the Lions,
you give me the Chiefs after the Lions suffered those
injuries and I thought they were drawing dead, and I
(54:40):
did a lot of Ravens swaps where I'll give you Ravens.
I'll give you one hundred shares of the Ravens if
you give me one hundred and ten shares of the Chiefs,
because the Ravens had better odds than the Chiefs. And
now the Chiefs will last me in standing. And I
have no Eagles liability, So that's all that's going on.
I don't know if the audience cares. Now, let's play
two wrongs in a right.
Speaker 2 (55:01):
Uh, so we're gonna run through. We're gonna play a
game two wrongs on right, but we're doing it in
the Super Bowl betting fashion, So it would be two drops,
you know, take a couple leave one. So first off,
we've got my homes here as passing yards at over
under twenty two hundred and fifty one and a half
plus I mean minus one ten at minus one ten,
(55:21):
and then.
Speaker 3 (55:21):
You got the pass both sides yep, yeah, and then
you got so go ahead, sorry, pass passing touchdowns over
under one and a half at minus one seventy five,
rush attempts over under six and a half.
Speaker 2 (55:33):
Plus one twenty and minus one fifty.
Speaker 1 (55:36):
Yeah. So yeah, no, you got that right. I would
I'm not gonna bet over on the touchdowns at minus
one seventy five. I if I had to just bet
(55:57):
one of these all take over six and a half
Rushi attempts. You figure, go ahead, de manse. You gotta
take two, though, I don't think so it's two wrongs
one right least one you have it exactly backwards, but
I might pick two actually, Okay, because you got it.
(56:19):
And here's the thing. I need to hit over seven.
I need four scrambles and three Neil downs at the
end and I get to my seven and so and
I'm getting plus money on that, and he just had
eleven in the last game. I also do like over
two hundred and fifty one and a half passing yards,
(56:41):
so I actually would I would not do the passing
touchdowns because of the big number and because they could
hand them all off to Xavier Worthy. There's different things
that could happen. I would do the Russia attempts and
the pass yards. Let's do Saquon all right.
Speaker 2 (56:56):
For rushing yards, he got the over under at one
hundred and twelve and a half. Our rush attempts over
under twenty one and a half, and anytime touchdown score
one is at minus one ninety two's at plus two
ninety five.
Speaker 1 (57:08):
Though I will take Sequon under attempts under twenty one
and a half because I think they're gonna be behind now.
He might still hit the total in yards, so I
would be afraid to take the Like. Listen, he's averaging
(57:31):
one hundred and thirty yards a game this year, so
I'd be scared to take, you know, one twelve and
a half seems like a light number. The any time
touchdown problem is is Jalen Hurtzel snipe them with the
tush push. So I would take sequon under twenty one
and a half.
Speaker 2 (57:48):
All right, next, Oh, next, we got your guy Kelsey.
Reception over under six and a half. Our reception yards
is sixty one and a half and reception touchdowns one
is plus one forty five twos plus one thousand.
Speaker 1 (58:03):
He's listen, he's having it.
Speaker 2 (58:05):
Javilardy said, you were taking Mahomes on the touchdown.
Speaker 1 (58:07):
So he is, no, I'm taking the yards. I'm taking
Kelsey over sixty one a half yards. He had seventy
at least seventy yards in fourteen straight playoff games. Now,
because one team slowed him down and that, by the way,
they resulted in the Chiefs scoring thirty two points, we
think he's not gonna have a big super Bowl might
be the last game of his career. Now. He did
(58:29):
say it media Day that he was asked, what are
you gonna be doing in three years? In three years,
you're like, hopefully still playing for the Chiefs. That seems optimistic,
but he doesn't seem to think he's gonna, you know,
be retiring, But no, Kelsey's gonna have at least sixty
five yards. That's my favorite one of these. Yet is
so far? All right?
Speaker 2 (58:46):
Next Chiefs touchdown score Hollywood Brown one at plus two
eighty two at plus twenty five hundred, Xavier Worthy one
for one sixty five, and then two for plus twelve hundred,
and then Andre Hopkins won for plus five fifty twos
plus five thousand, five hundred.
Speaker 1 (59:08):
What's Kareem Hunt? Can you guys look that up and
put it on the screen. You guys know, I like this.
Kareem Hunt, and tell me Kareem Hunt? And tell me Mahomes?
Speaker 2 (59:18):
I feel like cream Hunts. So's I'm bind you for?
I'm sorry? Actually plus two ninety?
Speaker 1 (59:22):
No? I bet that. No, I bet he's lower than that. Yeah,
the mahomes? What's mahomes plus three ten? I? I gosh,
I don't know, man. If this game were to potentially
get out of hand, Demansey, could we see Andy do
(59:45):
a Philly special Travis passing to Patrick, I don't know.
Could the Chiefs do their own Mahomes? Is my answer?
Kareem's gonna score, but I'll take the I'll take Mahomes
plus three ten and I'll take Kareem plus one forty.
(01:00:06):
I'll parlay those two adds good money. All right, what's
the Eagles ones go ahead?
Speaker 2 (01:00:11):
Uh, Eagles touchdown? You got Jalen Hurts one touchdowns minus
one ten two plus five fifty. You got a j.
Brown ones at plus one sixty five, twos at plus
twelve hundred, and you got Devonte Smith one's plus two
forty twos two thousand plus two thousand.
Speaker 1 (01:00:27):
Jalen Hurts minus one ten just to score a touchdowns? Yeah, yeah,
that's an easy one. And Hunt and Mahomes to scores
plus nine fifty. Love it, love it um at Barkley's
minus one ninety five to score a touchdown. I understand.
I would. I would take the other side of that.
(01:00:49):
I would. I the Again, I'm not saying you won't score,
but if I choose he's it's plus four point fifty.
No TD, that can't be right. No that I was
gonna say the arbitrage that and crush. No, it's probably
like plus one forty no TV or something. All right,
(01:01:09):
what's this triple crown thing we're doing? Uh?
Speaker 2 (01:01:12):
Yeah, So who lead the game in past passing yards,
reception yards, and rushing yards.
Speaker 1 (01:01:18):
Between Mahomes, Kelsey Saquon. I was, I was bet here's
what I would do on that. Honestly, I would consider
doing Mahomes in Saquon and then betting a number of
different guys, Like if I were like Mahomes and Saquon
plus Kelsey, Mahomes and Saquon plus Worthy, Mahomes and Saquon
(01:01:41):
plus A. J. Brown. But I would do Mahomes, Kelsey
and Saquon, and I would imagine that's the favorite.
Speaker 2 (01:01:49):
Yep.
Speaker 1 (01:01:50):
I know that's probably the square bet, but I imagine that's
the favorite. All right, let's do the offer because this
podcast is going on too long, but then we've got
other stuff to do. Yeah, so it's you.
Speaker 2 (01:02:00):
Their offer has been rough. You didn't like a lot
of the offers this year, so I feel like I've
got it. But they were hitting you and you weren't
taking them, so we got to reach it.
Speaker 1 (01:02:11):
They even you guys gave me a Falcons first drive
missed field goal. It's like a thousand to one I do, Yeah, go.
Speaker 2 (01:02:17):
Ahead, Uh so we're gonna go through them. Yeah, fifty
nine seconds we're gonna run through here. You just tell
me yes or no if you like them.
Speaker 1 (01:02:24):
Okay, go all right?
Speaker 2 (01:02:25):
First off any quarter scoreless plus four ten, yeah your name?
Speaker 1 (01:02:29):
No?
Speaker 2 (01:02:30):
Yes? Any tight end to record first touchdown at plus
four fifty maybe okay. Chiefs to win by exactly three
points is at plus nine to fifty. Maybe keep going
the Xavier Worthy to have fifty plus yard fifty one
fifty plus yard reception at plus sixteen nine. No, okay,
(01:02:52):
Kelsey to score first and last touchdown at plus nine thousand.
Speaker 1 (01:02:56):
And ninety to one. Yes for yeah me up? Okay, Uh,
here're one your score. Prediction.
Speaker 2 (01:03:05):
Chiefs to win thirty four to twenty four is at
plus thirteen thousand, one.
Speaker 1 (01:03:09):
Hundred and thirty to one. Yes, sign me up.
Speaker 2 (01:03:12):
Octopus plus thirteen hundred.
Speaker 1 (01:03:15):
No, I don't you. Guys just hit me what octopus
were last year, and I thought it was dumb and
then it kept happening.
Speaker 2 (01:03:21):
Oh no, Uh, who will have more? Who have more?
Patrick Mahomes past attempts for Scottie Barnes points plus rebounds
and assists.
Speaker 1 (01:03:30):
That's it helps. I'm not I don't want to have
to pay attention on superol Sunday to the route, be like,
I've got a sweat out a Raptors game. That's stupid.
I'll take Kelsey first and last at ninety to one.
I'll take my score at one hundred and thirty to one.
And I guess if I'm taking Kelsey first and last, no,
then I won't even need the action on any tight
(01:03:50):
end to score the first TD because I've already got
that juice there. And sure, and Chiefs win by exactly
three points plus nine fifty. They win a lot of
Super Bowls by three points. I'll take that one as well.
All right, So last thing before we go to Monday
for episode three hundred. Uh so, yeah, we played the
side at the beginning. This shit's kind of highlight how
far the Chiefs have gotten. We just want to show
(01:04:12):
how far we've come in the three hundred episodes. Oh
for the what's right pot, We've got another shot for
you guys, let me hear it. But I said come
work with me on the podcast. Something got lost in translation.
I meant like, set up the cameras, make sure the
audio is right. And some genius back in LA was like, hey,
why don't we have him host it with you so
(01:04:32):
so far, so good. I'm enjoying it. Wow, I didn't
even remember.
Speaker 2 (01:04:37):
That betting you off in the middle of your yeah
on the show.
Speaker 1 (01:04:41):
And that was I mean three years. We're coming up
on three years, three hundred episodes. Pretty good. All right,
great job, see everyone in New Orleans. Enjoy the shows.
Talk to you guys soon. What's right,
Welcome In, We'll Driving the Great Episode three hundred on
the eve of a potential three peat for the Kansas
City Chiefs. Tuesday's pod was super NBA heavy. There's more
NBA stuff we could get to. It is trade deadline day, however,
it's also the last pod before the Super Bowl, so
(00:23):
we're when we go to what missed the cut, it's
going to be all the NBA stuff because this is
a super Bowl only dynasty goat gambling show. That's what
we're talking about, the game, legacy implications and bets you
should make as we get ready for Super Bowl fifty nine.
(00:44):
So what did miss the cut? Luca's introductory press conference
not on there, the rest of the NBA trade deadline
not on there. Demands you want to be tell it,
says demands. A coin toss equels good bet? Is this
an old take or a current take? Welcome in?
Speaker 2 (00:59):
Demand's the go ahead? Uh, thank you, pops, great bet.
I still stand by it. I mean you either it
or you don't see us or no, but Wales I
would go.
Speaker 1 (01:08):
With, uh, you want you want it right now? Yeah? Tails? Yeah,
you're taking tails? Yeah right, yeah, you got it. Listen,
it's twenty one dollars to win twenty. I'm charging your
minus one oh five juice like the So that's I
want it, you can have it.
Speaker 2 (01:26):
I thought it was even.
Speaker 1 (01:26):
Well, sports books are not going to give you true
even money. Oh they're Oh so the sports books they
are giving you even money on it. Yeah, they're giving
you a true even money wager.
Speaker 2 (01:38):
So I'll just little prob services to FanDuel.
Speaker 1 (01:40):
So it's almost like single uh single zero roulette, like
a three to two double deck blackjack, like it's like
old school Vegas.
Speaker 2 (01:51):
And the bat is a tail on the back of
the quarter of the original quarter has got very similar
wings to the Eagles logo.
Speaker 1 (01:58):
So oh intriguing. I didn't think about that. I thought
you were gonna say one side's heavier than the other.
So it's actually a smarter but doesn't matter. Like great
subscriber view. This has been one of our best subscription
and subscriber subscription and subscriber same thing weeks ever, so
we appreciate that it is episode three hundred and I'm
(02:20):
told we have a little look back coming, so demande
take it away.
Speaker 2 (02:24):
Yeah, so, I mean we have done three hundred episodes.
At the beginning of this podcast, the Rams had just
beaten the Bengals in the Super Bowl, and you were
talking about the Chiefs becoming a possible dynasty with what
comes next. So we've got a little sot we're gonna
play for you guys.
Speaker 1 (02:40):
Oh, let me hear now. As far as Chiefs dynasty,
I guess you know, how do you define dynasty? If
the Chiefs win the Super Bowl this next year? Is
that a dynasty? If in four years or the five
years since Mahomes was the starter, they made three super Bowls,
won two of them and made five conference championship games,
is that a dynasty? I don't know. If they were
(03:01):
to win the next to it obviously is. But winning
back to back's really hard. So dynasty to me is
not the most important thing here. Most important thing is
can that Chiefs from multiple Super Bowls? Wow?
Speaker 2 (03:14):
What I'm looking at where you're at now?
Speaker 1 (03:17):
You know? But what a moment. And also that was
definitely pre never a doubt era because and again even
in the home setup, I can't figure out how to
show this. Damn. I've never learned how to show my
arm to the camera. You could see my arm. In
this week's Washington Post that picture in the post of
my tattoo looked awesome. I've never looked more badass than
(03:39):
that picture in the post. I feel like they photoshopped
my forearms out here looking like Brad pitt On once
onon a time in Hollywood. H And So what I
said there was, if they win the next one, maybe
it's a dynasty. If they win the next two, obviously
(04:03):
two dynasty. But it's really hard to win back to back.
And now we sit here on the precipice of three
in a row. Man. That really that really great man. Yeah,
it also remind you how lucky we are. I mean,
(04:24):
that was a that was a that was coming off
the worst loss in my opinion, of the entire Mahomes era,
there have only been three losses, three playoff losses in
the Mahomes era. The first one was kind of the
way sports should be, Like, Mahomes was great, but they
(04:49):
didn't kill the Patriots dead. And then it goes to
overtime and we're gonna actually later in this podcast talk
about that exact game, the twenty eighteen AFC Championship Game,
because it is such an important one in the story
of Mahomes and in the goat argument and all of it,
(05:10):
and then Brady wins the coin toss. The Chiefs never
get the ball, he goes right down the field. They
win the game. Uh lost number two. The Chiefs were
never in it. And you can put that on Patrick
if you want. That'd be ridiculous. They couldn't block Tampa
and it was thirty one to nine. Oh yeah, be
in the super Bowl and lost. Number three is the
(05:32):
only one that still It's like, what the what happened?
They were up twenty one to three on Cincinnati. They
then had an opportunity to score right before the half.
Mahomes made a mistake, like there was seven seconds before
the half. You can take one more shot to the
(05:54):
end zone. He threw it short of the end zone.
They run out of time. He and the enemy getting
a bit of an argument going into the tunnel. They
should have at least gotten three and then they fall
apart and they lose. They get to overtime, win the
coin toss. In overtime, you have third and ten. Mahomes
blows a perfect ball to Tyreek, goes off his hands,
(06:15):
the Bengals interception in four plays letter Bengals kicking the
field goal season over and it's like, oh my god,
what just happened? And that also they then traded Tyreek
killins the last playoff game they lost, and so from
that moment forward they won nine consecutive playoff games. No, Listen,
the Patriots won ten playoff games in a row, but
(06:37):
in the middle of that they missed the playoffs. So
as far as over three without ever missing the playoffs,
they're on the longest playoff winning streak ever. If they
win the super Bowl, it's the longest playoff winning streak ever,
whether you miss the playoffs or not. All the history
stuff is coming later. The actual game breakdown is coming
(06:59):
right now. So go ahead, demonsay.
Speaker 2 (07:01):
Yeah, on Tuesday's pod, you said that you felt either
team could win. You obviously are gonna go with the
Chiefs here, But what how do you see the game
playing out? Actually?
Speaker 1 (07:10):
All right, so let's You're right, I'm obviously gonna go
with the Chiefs. But let's talk about what would have
to happen for the Eagles to win. First. Okay, where
the Eagles the matchups the Eagles can win. Okay that
(07:34):
the first thing that would have to happen is Jalen Carter,
the Eagles great young defensive tackle would have to dominate
his matchup on the inside, whether it be Trey Smith
or Mike Calliando. Jalen Carter would have to dominate that
(07:54):
matchup and really push, get up, push from the interior
of the pocket to get Mahomes off this spot and
get Mahomes uneasy. Jordan Davis, the other excellent Georgia d tackle,
not nearly as good as Jalen Carter, but good player
(08:16):
would have to stuff the run and force the Chiefs
into an exclusive drop back passing game. And even if
those things happen, it doesn't tilt the scales enough defensively
for Philly. The other thing that would have to happen
is Slay and Quinnyon Mitchell would have to consistently win
(08:43):
one on one with the Chiefs outside receivers Hollywood and
Xavier Worthy and allow them to double Travis with Chauncey
Gardner Johnson being the safety help. That is the recipe
for the Eagles to slow down the Chiefs offense. It's
(09:07):
incredibly difficult to do, but that's how they would do it.
Flip side, when the Eagles have the ball, it's far
more straightforward what they would have to do that. I
do not think they're going to be able to do
what they've done to everyone, which is Saquon just kill them.
(09:35):
That is, the Chiefs are too well coached, too good
of a tackling team for Saquon to just butt break
out these twenty forty sixty yard runs. What they could do, however,
is Saquon consistently keep them ahead of the sticks and
(09:55):
get them in second and six, and then third and
two and on a few of those run past downs.
One of the things that makes the Eagles so difficult
to deal with is they are just they stay consistently
in a down and distance where you could run or
(10:17):
pass right, and so the defense is gonna pick your
poison situation. And if on some of those downs where
if Saquan has just been getting four, six eight yards
of pop, the Chiefs sell out to stop him and
aj Brown gets deep down the sideline, then you pop
a big play. So that's the recipe for Philadelphia, a
(10:43):
lot of Saquon pop the big play, your best players
on defense playing like your best players. That's the recipe
for Philadelphia. That makes you nervous if you're a Chiefs fan.
The problem in My opinion for the Eagles in this
spot is there are just too many other ways for
(11:06):
Kansas City to beat them. So here's what I think
is going to happen. I think Chris Jones is going
to dominate his matchup. I think that with the Eagles
interior offensive linemen not being one hundred percent even if
(11:28):
you expect them all to play. Talking about Dickerson and
Cam Jurgens, I think Chris Jones is going to wreak havoc.
Jalen Hurts all year has been one of the most
efficient quarterbacks in the league when not pressured, and one
of the least efficient quarterbacks in the league win pressured.
(11:52):
The Chief's ability to get to the quarterback has changed
dramatically since Charles Amena, who came back from his tour
ACL You have a minil who carloftis, Michael Dana all
rotating on as defensive ends. You have Chris Jones, one
(12:13):
of the best players in league history, at the peak
of his powers, wreaking havoc up the middle, and all
of a sudden, you find yourself in must pass spots
and where the Chiefs have been unbelievable and what I
imagine they will do is trust Trent McDuffie to cover
(12:38):
DeVante Smith one on one, use Jalen Watson along with
the safety to double A. J. Brown, and dare Jalen
Hurts to throw the ball over the middle of the
field where he's not comfortable throwing. He likes throwing outside
into the sidelines. And I think defensively, the Chiefs are
(13:03):
going to be far and away the biggest challenge Philadelphia
has dealt with this postseason flip side when kan City
has the ball. This is not so much deep x's
and o's analysis as much as it is you have
(13:23):
one of the greatest athletes and maybe more important, one
of the greatest competitors in the history of sports, who knows,
probably this is my only chance to do this. Patrick
Mahomes walks onto this field knowing I probably I could
(13:50):
play thirty more years and I probably will never have
another chance where if I win one game, I three
p where I win one game, we become the greatest
team in NFL history. And I think a dialed Patrick.
When you add to it, Vic Fangio's running this defense.
(14:14):
Vic Fangio his teams have played Patrick eight times. They
are zero to eight. Patrick has played this defense more
than he's played any other defense in the league because
the Fangio kind of too high safety make him take
(14:36):
the short stuff. Defense used to give Patrick real trouble.
So everyone started doing it, so Patrick learned how to
deal with it. Well, now you've taught the guy and
given him immense experience against it, and now in the
biggest game of his life, he's up against it. You
(15:00):
add to it a fresh Travis Kelcey and a fully
whole receiving corps for the first time really all year.
I think the Chiefs are gonna be able to move
the football. And if they are able to move the
football through the air the way I think they're going
(15:21):
to be able to, it will open up some run
looks for Kareem Hunt more than Isaiah Pacheco. And then
you add the ultimate X factor, which is the greatest
postseason rushing quarterback ever is Patrick Mahomes and it is
(15:42):
a superpower. He saves for the postseason, but it is
so hard to account for. And unlike the last time
they played the Philadelphia Eagles, he's fully healthy, and unlike
the last Super Bowl they played against San Francisco, he
(16:03):
doesn't have an entire position group openly revolting against him,
and they're not coming off back to back to back
brutal games that they had to kill themselves to win
Super Bowl Him. Well, I mean last year it was
just I mean, it was just drop after drop after drop.
Speaker 2 (16:24):
Crazy.
Speaker 1 (16:25):
And last year, remember the route to the super Bowl
was the coldest game played in the NFL in thirty years,
followed by Road Buffalo Nip and Tuck Road Baltimore. The
route to the super Bowl this year was back to
(16:48):
back bye weeks, followed by Houston at home and then
Buffalo at home. Not the same. So they come in fresher,
they come in healthier, and the Eagles got here a
lot of different ways. But here's one of them demons.
This number will blow your mind. In these playoffs, the
(17:12):
Eagles have committed zero turnovers. That's not shocking, that won't
blow your mind. That's a good team. They have forced
or received some force some given ten. The Eagles are
plus ten in the turnover margin in these three playoff games.
The chiefs in these playoffs have forced zero turnovers. They
(17:38):
have committed one. So the Eagles got to the super
Bowl being plus ten in the turnover battle. The Chiefs
got to the Super Bowl being minus one in the
turnover battle.
Speaker 2 (17:50):
They are the Chiefs are going to force the turnover
for the Eagles.
Speaker 1 (17:54):
Well, I think this I didn't got The Chiefs don't
have to win the turnover battle to win, but if
they win the turnover battle, they can't lose. Again. My
favorite stat in football right now is this one. During
the run to the three peat, there have been twenty
(18:15):
three games the Chiefs lost the turnover battle playoffs in
regular season last three years. In those twenty three games,
they are a good but not great thirteen and nine.
Now that is a great record in games you lose
the turnover battle, but thirteen and nine is not. You know,
that's like a eleven and six pace, ten and seven
(18:38):
pace right In games they win or tie the turnover battle.
Over the last three years, the Kansas City Chiefs are
thirty four and one and the one loss was Week
one against Detroit two years ago when the one turnover
(18:58):
was a pick six. So if the if the Chiefs
don't commit turnovers, they can't lose. They are undefeated. In
games they don't turn the ball over, they are thirty
four and one. In games they don't lose the turnover battle.
So now you can say, well, Philadelphia is averaging, you know,
(19:21):
forcing on average more than three game in the playoffs.
I don't think that's I don't think that's gonna keep
up this week. And so all those reasons, I like
Kansas City to score. I like Kansas City to score
a season high in points. I think Kansas City gets
to thirty four in this game. If you guys remember
(19:43):
in the Bills game, I predicted thirty one. They got
to thirty two, thirty four in this game. And I
think this is a if I give you a score
right now, I probably should do this later. But I'm
gonna say thirty four four Kansas City not an easy win.
(20:03):
I am not arguing that, but oh game that ends
up being a ten point margin. One other note about
the Chiefs in Super Bowls down double digits, every single
one of them against the Niners, down twenty to ten
with seven minutes left, and won the game thirty one
(20:27):
to twenty one of the craziest results honestly in league history.
Down twenty to ten seven minutes left in the game,
won the game thirty one to twenty. Zero defensive scores
involved against the Eagles. The first time everyone talks about
that Jalen Hurts fumble score flipping the game. The Eagles
(20:50):
were up fourteen to seven when that happened. The Chiefs
scooped and scored, and it's fourteen to fourteen. The Eagles
went into half up twenty four to fourteen. They rallied, recovered,
had a ten point lead going into the half, and
the Chiefs then and probably my favorite that.
Speaker 2 (21:11):
Say it again, they also got blessed there after they
got in scoring position off an incomplete pass. But what
do you mean the DeVante that didn't lead to a touchdown?
I guess, I guess it's minor. But they were saying that,
which one the DeVante Smith caught a pass off the sideline.
It was for like forty yards and it was incomplete
and it was complete Eagles.
Speaker 1 (21:32):
Yeah, yes, ye, yeah, sorry, I didn't I didn't know
what you're doing about. Yeah. Yeah, they very small. They
called it at the point they know still it's something
and then no. But my favorite stat of all these
chief stances are the second half of the Eagles Super Bowl.
(21:53):
They got every single yard they could have gotten, meaning
if you get the ball on your own thirty you
can get seventy yards on that possession. If you get
the ball on your own twenty two, you can get
seventy eight yards on that possession. In the second half,
the Chiefs got every single yard they could get on
(22:15):
every single drive except for the final yard on the
final drive because they went down so they could kick
the field goal. The Eagles couldn't stop. In the second half.
Mahomes was an absolute machine. And then the Niners Super Bowl,
they were down ten as well, and Mahomes threw a
pick and they came back. So I we have yet
(22:40):
to see a great first half from Patrick in a
Super Bowl. I think we see it and the Chiefs
win thirty four to twenty four. All right, demonse, Let's
move on to some history stuff.
Speaker 2 (22:54):
All right, So people can hate and say whatever they
want to say if they end up th repeating. But
if they do end up repeating, what is it? What
does this put the franchise historically in my homes? Let's
start with the franchise, Yeah, franchise, Yeah.
Speaker 1 (23:10):
Well, as far as where it is amongst all time
NFL franchises, we'll go kind of macro macro to micro
and down all time NFL franchises. If the Chiefs pull
this off, I believe.
Speaker 2 (23:30):
That only.
Speaker 1 (23:36):
The Niners and the Cowboys will have definitive case for
better historic franchises. And you might say, why the Cowboys
or the cow Because the Cowboys were unbelievable across multiple
(23:57):
ears that were unbelievable in the seventies, they were unbelievable
in the nineties, and they have managed to stay relevant
for the last twenty five years. The Niners had the
unbelievable run of the eighties, they were great in the
nineties and won a Super Bowl. They have been to
three Super Bowls in the two thousands. And you might say,
(24:20):
why am I not including Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh did a disproportionate
amount of it. Well, I want to be fair here.
Pittsburgh and the Chiefs I think actually would be I
guess similar just with the recency bias being on Kansas
City side. Pittsburgh did all that work in the seventies
(24:43):
and then was really good and consistent in the aughts, Like, yeah,
maybe Pittsburgh would have six super Bowls kin Stidy would
have five. I guess Pittsburgh's got to be there. And
then you say the Patriots, I think you can put
the Chiefs head to head with the Patriots, even though
(25:04):
the Patriots have six because the Chiefs were great at
the very beginning of the league. We're in Super Bowl one, one,
super Bowl four and then have the greatest stretch of
football in the history of the league. But they here's
you know what, let's redo that. Not redo that, but
let me rephrase it. They become a gold standard franchise.
(25:29):
We don't need to rank them. But the gold standard
franchises in the NFL right now are the Niners, the Steelers,
the Cowboys, the Patriots, the Packers. That's them. The Chiefs
join that group and you can't argue against it. They
(25:50):
are in that tier. And then we could rank them
however we wanted to. All right, So that's franchise. Now
we go to dynasty. It's the greatest dynasty in football history.
If they win. Now people are going to make the argument, no,
New England's is New England's is not one dynasty, and
(26:14):
I will go to my grave believing it. Because here's
the thing people don't want or I don't want to say,
don't want to think about, but I think don't remember
about the Patriots run everyone knows. They didn't win a
Super Bowl for a decade from you know, after the
(26:36):
four to one, they didn't win another one until fourteen.
That's not the disqualifying That's not why it's two separate dynasties.
It's two separate dynasties because five to twenty ten was
bad and it so let me walk you through why
you have to separate the dynasties. For New England, one
(26:57):
to four is a dynasty. And and then you can
either say eleven to eighteen, twelve to eighteen, or the
accurate way to put it is fourteen to eighteen. That's
the dynasty. But one to two or five to twenty ten.
Here is what happened to the Patriots going for a
three peat. They get clocked in round two by Jake Plumber.
(27:24):
They were ten and six, they had to play in
the wild card round and Jake Plumber and the Broncos
ended their quested history. So for some like the comp
to that would have been if this year the Chiefs
were a middling team that won their Round one playoff
(27:45):
game and then in round two Russell Wilson in the
Steelers beat him. Kind of put a sour taste in
your mouth on the season, but you're owing for a
three peat. Then next year six they are up twenty
one to three in the AFC Championship Game. This happened
(28:07):
to the Chiefs and they lost to Peyton Manning. He
came all the way back. The next year they were undefeated,
playing a ten win Giants team in the Super Bowl
as fourteen point favorites and lost. Next year, insane, that
(28:32):
demands what's crazy about that? Is that used to happen
all the time. Remind me to come back to that.
Remind me when I finished this. The next year, two
thousand and eight, they missed the playoffs. The next year,
two thousand and nine, they lose in Round one by
(28:52):
nineteen points to Joe Flacco. The next year, in twenty ten,
they get the buye. They're the number one seed, and
they lose their first playoff game at home to Mark Sanchez.
So don't tell me your one dynasty. If a six
(29:16):
year stretch of that dynasty, you have wait, hold on one, two, three, Yeah,
six year stretch of that dynasty. Three years, you don't
win a single playoff game. One year a fourth year,
I should say, you don't make it to the conference
(29:36):
Championship Game. The year you do make it to the
conference championship game, you blow a twenty one to three lead.
And the year you do make it to the Super Bowl,
you have one of the most disappointing Super Bowl performances ever.
And when the quarterbacks who sent you home in your
playoff losses were Peyton Manning, who's awesome, and then Joe Flacco,
(29:59):
Eli Mann who at that point had done nothing, uh,
Jake Plumber and Mark Sanchez. So the Patriots dynasty is
one to four and then fourteen to eighteen. And what
a dynasty looks like is what they did fourteen to eighteen.
Fourteen win the Super Bowl fifteen, lose in the AFC
(30:21):
Championship Game by two sixteen, win the Super Bowl seventeen,
lose the Super Bowl eighteen, win the Super Bowl. Those
are your two dynasties for New England. Okay, the Patriots
are the chief six year run win Super Bowl, lose
Super Bowl, lose in overtime at the conference title game,
(30:44):
win Super Bowl, win, super Bowl wins super Bowl. Nothing
comes close to it, nothing, not even the Steelers of
the seventies who went back to back then missed it
by two years. And then back to back again because
the that if we're again we got to pick nits.
Here they went to four, the Chiefs will have gone
(31:05):
to five. And those Steelers' two playoff losses were in
the conference championship game by seventeen and a road Round
one playoff game by thirteen. So the Steelers are out
of there. If the Chiefs win this, that trump's that.
(31:25):
And you say that the Niners in the eighties, the
Niners won four, went to just four and it was
over nine years. So it is the greatest dynasty ever.
That's not for debate. I would argue this, and this
would be for debate. They become the greatest team in
(31:45):
the history of the league this year, this team, and
people are going to push back. The argument for it
is the following. No team will have ever won more
games in a season than the Chiefs. And it's not
because of the extra game, because they didn't even play
their guys in the extra game. They lost it. Anyway,
(32:08):
they would have beaten ten won ten games against playoff teams.
One team all year would have beaten them straight up,
and they then beat that team in the playoffs. They
would be doing it under the weight of going for
a three peat. They would be doing it under the
(32:30):
weight of catastrophic injuries to one side of the ball
at the beginning of the season. They would be doing
it in today's media climate, which is so so different
and so much more day to day pressure and stress
(32:51):
and all of it. And they would have done it
when the league is built to prevent this exact thing.
They would have done it playing a game on every
single day of the week. They would have done it
without any any scandal, correct and so, and they would
(33:18):
have They would have done it against all odds and
with not even anything close to like an easy draw.
They got the best team in the NFC in the
Super Bowl. With respect to the Lions. The Lions weren't
the best team after the injuries and they had to
(33:41):
go through Buffalo. So I think it'd be the greatest
team ever. Now I do want to tell you just
quick sidebar year by year super boring. Yeah, so, uh,
this will blow your mind demand because it great. We eat.
Super Bowls are something you get to grow up with.
(34:05):
I did not, so super Bowls were just constantly blowouts
forever likes no fun. Here's some super Bowl scores. Demanse
starting in the mid eighties Okay Raiders thirty eight, Washington nine,
San Francisco thirty eight, Miami sixteen, Chicago forty six, New
(34:28):
England ten Giants thirty nine, Denver twenty, Washington forty two,
Denver ten. These are in order. San Francisco twenty, cinc.
Ninety sixteen a good one, San Francisco fifty five, Denver
ten Giants twenty, Buffalo nineteen and then Buffalo after losing that.
(34:48):
They lost that they had a field goal at the
gun to win it, nor would missed it. They then
went to three more in a row. They lost thirty
seven to twenty four, fifty two to seventeen, th to thirteen,
San Francisco forty nine, San Diego twenty six just blowout city. Well,
my whole life's.
Speaker 2 (35:08):
Going on there? Why is that? Was it?
Speaker 1 (35:09):
Because the NFP was dramatically better than the AFC, And
that's why, I mean, the NFC won every Super Bowl
from eighty four till I'm looking ninety seven. So the
(35:31):
NFC won fourteen in a row or thirteen in a row.
But here are the point spreads. Demanse just San Francisco
favored by twelve, one by forty five, Dallas favored by
ten and a half, one by seventeen. San Francisco favored
by eighteen and a half, one by twenty three, eighteen
(35:53):
and a half point line in the super Bowl. It's
super Bowl. We were like Dallas favored by thirteen and
a half, won by ten. Green Bay favored by fourteen,
one by fourteen. This one will blow your mind. Green
Bay favored by eleven. Lost, damn to Denver, all right,
(36:13):
charge tables, the Tables of Christ. And then and then
it happened again. Saint Louis favored by fourteen over Brady's
Patriots lost, Greatest Show on Turf favored by fourteen and lost.
And then obviously famously, New England favored by I guess
it ended up going off at twelve. They lost. But
(36:35):
we haven't had a Super Bowl since New England was
favored by twelve and the seven Super Bowl the next
year Pittsburgh is favored by seven. They won by four.
We have not had a single Super Bowl with a
favorite of more than four and a half. And that
also kind of speaks to why this should be impossible
(37:00):
because the league is so different. Now everything's supposed to
be close. You just know close super Bowls, and the
Super Bowl lines have been you know, Niners by two,
Eagles by two, Rams by four, Kse by three, Case
by one and a half, New England by two and
a half, New England by four, and app New England
by three, Carolina by four and a half, Seattle by one,
(37:22):
Denver by two, like as opposed to these giant spreads
of when I was a kid. And so the I mean,
that's just, by the way, the most famous game maybe
in NFL history. You've seen the picture of Joe Namat
Demonse running off the field pointless. Finger Jets Colts Baltimore
(37:43):
was favored by eighteen. They scored seven in the game,
lost sixteen to seven. And so it just sounds like Vegas.
Speaker 2 (37:55):
I don't know, man.
Speaker 1 (37:58):
Well the I mean, well, you see in the eighties
and the early nineties, they couldn't set a line high enough.
Like I was telling you, all these teams that were
favored by double digits, they just kept covering. Chicago favored
by ten, they win by thirty six. The Giants favored
by nine and a half, they win by nineteen. San
Francisco favored by twelve, they win by forty five points.
(38:21):
You can't set a lot like they try to set
a line in San Francisco. Favored by eighteen and a half,
they win by twenty three. Like you just couldn't set
a line high enough. And so yeah, you could just it.
Speaker 2 (38:36):
Was I mean even regular season games like it's rare
that you get.
Speaker 1 (38:39):
Never plus eighteen, they never do. That's what I'm so,
that's why this that's why this was actually a good
exercise because it speaks to why what the Chiefs are
doing should be impossible, right because all the games it's
so different. Now you don't get these games where you're
just a huge, huge favorite. All right, let's let's talk.
(39:02):
We're going too long. Let's talk Patrick here before we
get to our bets.
Speaker 2 (39:06):
So yeah, earlier, earlier this week, you made the point
of with the three peet in the wind, that Patrick
Mahomes would be the unanimous goat. But it died to
be a little difficult to call in the unanimous goat
considering Brady as seven and you know, the head to head,
So I want to talk about that.
Speaker 1 (39:22):
I don't think it'll be unanimous, but I think here's
what I think. I think that if you truth serumed
football fans who's the best player you've ever seen? Mahomes
would win that. I think that.
Speaker 2 (39:45):
People are lying when they say Patrick Mahomes isn't the
greatest be.
Speaker 1 (39:49):
Like, well, I think that they are being too uh
reliant or dedicated to the hardware. But I which the
hard ware does matter. But I so I'll take a
step further. I think if you told people, hey, here's
the deal, weird scenario, but I have access to give
(40:14):
you any player ever, and I can't tell you what
type of team or what team I'm dropping them on,
but I can tell you this. You get to pick
one player, and if that team wins, you get a
(40:36):
million dollars. Who are you picking which player? Any position,
any era, and I'm not telling you where when the
game is playing, who they're against, who's on their team.
I think people would pick peak Mahomes over Peak Brady,
(41:00):
and I don't think that would be particularly close. I
also think that this is a relevant data point, which
is Tom Brady, who is amazing, went to ten Super
Bowls and won seven. Do you know how many of
(41:22):
those teams did not have a top eight scoring defense?
Top eight? So the reason I said top eight is
there's thirty two teams that's top quarter of the league
right ten super Bowl appearances, seven ranks. One team that
he took to a Super Bowl did not have a
(41:43):
top eight scoring defense. Zero teams that he won a
championship with did not have a top eight scoring defense.
Patrick Mahomes has just now recently had really good defenses.
Patrick Mahomes has already been to two Super Bowls and
one Wondering without a top eight scoring defense. For all
of Tom Brady's amazing playoff numbers, he is he is
(42:07):
six and five in his career in the playoffs without
a top eight scoring defense. Mahomes is six and two,
So he's already won as many playoff games as Tom
did his whole twenty some year career without a top
eight scoring defense. So people are going to bring up
the head to head and the Super Bowls, the Super Bowl,
(42:28):
Brady was very good, Mahomes was running for his life
and was not. And if people want to say that's
you know that one game determines it, so be it.
But if people are going to argue the two to
zero piece of it, I am going to not only
ask them to go back and watch that Chiefs Patriots
(42:49):
AFC Championship game, but I am going to remind them
of this. Tom Brady in that game through one touchdown,
had two picks and threw the pick to lose the
game that was nullified by a correct but meaningless DFOURD
off sides penalty. He had a seventy seven rating. Patrick
Mahons had three touchdowns, zero picks in a one to
(43:10):
seventeen rating. And that was actually the game demands a
that set the legend of Mahomes in the playoffs late,
because here's the situation. Patrick Mahomes, in his first year
as a starter with one of the worst defenses in
the league, found himself down ten going into the fourth
quarter against Tom Brady. He led the Chiefs all the
(43:33):
way back and they took the lead midway through the fourth.
The Chiefs defense then immediately gave up a touchdown with
three point thirty two left in the game. Patrick Mahomes
in ninety seconds drove them down the field to take
the lead with two minutes left. The Chiefs defense then
immediately gave up a touchdown and Patrick Mahomes found himself
(43:58):
in his second playoff game in the AFC Championship game
in his first year as a starter down three with
thirty seconds left at his own thirty yard line with
one time out, and he got him in field goal
range twenty one seconds later, and they tied the game.
(44:22):
And then they go to overtime, coin toss, didn't get
the ball. Brady third and ten completion to Edelman, third
and ten completion to Edelman, third and ten completion to
Gronk and I'm a puddle on the ground. Game over.
They and they won, and they earned it. But Patrick
(44:42):
Mahomes in that game threw more touchdown passes then Tom
Brady did his entire postseason run to the Super Bowl
his first year as a starter. And so if we
want to if we're gonna say the head to head matters,
the fair reading of it is, in the regular season,
(45:06):
it's three to one Patrick, and in the postseason it's
two oh Tom. But Patrick thoroughly outplayed Tom the first
time they met, and Tom thoroughly outplayed Patrick the second
time they met. So that's to me, not as drastic
(45:29):
as folks want to make it. The other argument people
will make is man, Tom Brady walked into a disaster situation.
Mahomes walked into an amazing situation. One way to look
at it. Another way to look at it is this
Tom Brady walked into a franchise that had been that
was in the Super Bowl six years prior. It was
a franchise and it was in another Super Bowl a
(45:52):
decade before that. When Patrick Mahomes took over for Alex Smith.
I'll put it in terms of I was thirty four
years old. Okay, I was thirty four years old when
Patrick Mahomes took over. The Chiefs had won one playoff
(46:16):
game since I was nine. Patrick Mahomes took over for
a franchise that had won one playoff game in twenty
five years of football. They have now since he's been there,
won seventeen playoff games. Patrick Mahomes took over for a
(46:37):
team that before he had gotten there, had been to
the AFC Championship Game once in fifty years. They've now
been there seven times in a row. Patrick Mahomes took
over for a team that had been to zero Super
Bowls in the fifty years before he got there. They've
(46:57):
now been to five in the last six years. Patrick
Mahomes took over a team that had won one Super
Bowl ever, and it was fifty years prior. They have
now won three and on the precipice of four. There
is not a single thing Tom Brady could do on
the football field that Patrick Mahomes can't. There are a
(47:21):
few things Patrick Mahomes can do that Tom Brady can't.
Patrick Mahomes has won a Super Bowl with the terrible defense.
Patrick Mahomes has won a Super Bowl with bombs away.
Patrick Mahomes won a Super Bowl dinking and dunking. The
absolute floor for Patrick Mahomes is make the AFC Championship game.
(47:46):
Tom Brady missed the playoffs when he was defending his
first title. So if they pull off a three peat,
if they do this under these auspices of how the
(48:11):
NFL tries to make this impossible, not only are they
the greatest team ever, He's the greatest player in the
history of the league, and deep down I think everyone
will know it. This episode of wat Trot has brought
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Let's get to the gambling show playoffs nine to three
(49:38):
and one, No Shame, No? Nine? What am I? All right? No? Eight?
Three and one. In the playoffs, No shame in that
not gonna be able to get obviously didn't wasn't perfect
and not gonna get to the ten wins. But I
really am only focused on the ninth. Uh you but
go ahead, you can ask me official pick and e else.
(50:00):
Go ahead.
Speaker 2 (50:00):
This is uh just a formality here. But you know
you've got the Chiefs, uh dear, what's your I mean,
what's your official peak? I mean you've got Chiefs minus
one and a half.
Speaker 1 (50:09):
Thirty four to twenty four, Kansas City, Kansas City minus
one and a half. Obviously, this game demands does really
put my never hedge position uh to the test.
Speaker 2 (50:27):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (50:28):
So here's so here's why I'll share something with the audience.
If they've been watching this long, they deserve to hear it.
So you know, I'm in that that gambling group, right,
a bunch of guys that we all the no not survivors,
just like a big group chat where we you know,
bet futures with each other. But the other thing we
(50:51):
do is you can trade teams. So as of for instance,
the going into the playoffs, the Chiefs and the Lions
had very similar Super Bowl lones. So let me just
explain this group to the audience real quick. The way
this works is bets work as stocks, where they if
(51:16):
they if a bet wins, it's worth one hundred dollars
a share, and if it loses, it's worth zero dollars
a share, and it trades throughout the year. So like,
if the Chiefs are ten to one to win the
super Bowl, then they would be worth essentially nine dollars
a share. And then if they at some point are
(51:38):
five to one to win the super Bowl and they're
like eighteen dollars a share, then I could you can
sell it and whatever. Again, it's complicated, doesn't matter. Point
is this, You can also trade. So like all give
you one hundred shares of the Lions. If you give
me one hundred shares of the Chiefs, meaning hundred times
(52:00):
one hundred is ten thousand. Meaning if the Lions win
the super Bowl, I would if I gave someone a
hundred sold someone one hundred shares of the Lions, I
would owe them ten thousand dollars. If the Chiefs win
the Super Bowl, they would owe me ten thousand dollars.
And if anything else happens, there's no action, no money
changes hands, whatever it is, So I give that whole
(52:22):
context to say this. Now, I am now in a
position where let me check my ledger. Because I traded
the Lions with a handful of people, I also got
the Chiefs at a few moments where they're on to dipped,
like six to one, seven to one. Essentially, this where
(52:43):
I find myself where once again we have a real
big number on the Chiefs to win that I can
win a big number and I can't really lose that much.
So it is let me do the actual math on this.
I essentially have the short version of this would be
(53:06):
I essentially have the Chiefs at effectively eight to one
to win the super Bowl. That's how all the math
of this ends up sorting out. So I could bet
a relatively small amount on the Eagles to win this
game to just guarantee that I don't actually lose money
(53:28):
on the Super Bowl. I could bet a big amount
on the Eagles to win this game to lock in
a very good profit because I have one side at
eight to one and it's essentially an even money game.
Or I could do absolutely nothing and just let it
(53:48):
ride and trust in the three peat. I'm obviously gonna
do absolutely nothing and let it ride and trust in
the three peat. But it is it would be Chiefs
winning would make it the only bigger win of my life.
Would have been betting Biden to win the election after
(54:08):
the election had been called four years ago. It'll be
the second biggest gambling hit of my life if the
Chiefs win.
Speaker 2 (54:16):
A while ago. This is before the season, I imagine.
Speaker 1 (54:20):
It was before the season, was during It's a bunch
of it's accumulation of bets. It's you know what I mean,
some before the season, some during the season when the
Chiefs odds drops a lot of Chiefs swaps. I had
a bunch of swaps for the I'll give you the Lions,
you give me the Chiefs after the Lions suffered those
injuries and I thought they were drawing dead, and I
(54:40):
did a lot of Ravens swaps where I'll give you Ravens.
I'll give you one hundred shares of the Ravens if
you give me one hundred and ten shares of the Chiefs,
because the Ravens had better odds than the Chiefs. And
now the Chiefs will last me in standing. And I
have no Eagles liability, So that's all that's going on.
I don't know if the audience cares. Now, let's play
two wrongs in a right.
Speaker 2 (55:01):
Uh, so we're gonna run through. We're gonna play a
game two wrongs on right, but we're doing it in
the Super Bowl betting fashion, So it would be two drops,
you know, take a couple leave one. So first off,
we've got my homes here as passing yards at over
under twenty two hundred and fifty one and a half
plus I mean minus one ten at minus one ten,
(55:21):
and then.
Speaker 3 (55:21):
You got the pass both sides yep, yeah, and then
you got so go ahead, sorry, pass passing touchdowns over
under one and a half at minus one seventy five,
rush attempts over under six and a half.
Speaker 2 (55:33):
Plus one twenty and minus one fifty.
Speaker 1 (55:36):
Yeah. So yeah, no, you got that right. I would
I'm not gonna bet over on the touchdowns at minus
one seventy five. I if I had to just bet
(55:57):
one of these all take over six and a half
Rushi attempts. You figure, go ahead, de manse. You gotta
take two, though, I don't think so it's two wrongs
one right least one you have it exactly backwards, but
I might pick two actually, Okay, because you got it.
(56:19):
And here's the thing. I need to hit over seven.
I need four scrambles and three Neil downs at the
end and I get to my seven and so and
I'm getting plus money on that, and he just had
eleven in the last game. I also do like over
two hundred and fifty one and a half passing yards,
(56:41):
so I actually would I would not do the passing
touchdowns because of the big number and because they could
hand them all off to Xavier Worthy. There's different things
that could happen. I would do the Russia attempts and
the pass yards. Let's do Saquon all right.
Speaker 2 (56:56):
For rushing yards, he got the over under at one
hundred and twelve and a half. Our rush attempts over
under twenty one and a half, and anytime touchdown score
one is at minus one ninety two's at plus two
ninety five.
Speaker 1 (57:08):
Though I will take Sequon under attempts under twenty one
and a half because I think they're gonna be behind now.
He might still hit the total in yards, so I
would be afraid to take the Like. Listen, he's averaging
(57:31):
one hundred and thirty yards a game this year, so
I'd be scared to take, you know, one twelve and
a half seems like a light number. The any time
touchdown problem is is Jalen Hurtzel snipe them with the
tush push. So I would take sequon under twenty one
and a half.
Speaker 2 (57:48):
All right, next, Oh, next, we got your guy Kelsey.
Reception over under six and a half. Our reception yards
is sixty one and a half and reception touchdowns one
is plus one forty five twos plus one thousand.
Speaker 1 (58:03):
He's listen, he's having it.
Speaker 2 (58:05):
Javilardy said, you were taking Mahomes on the touchdown.
Speaker 1 (58:07):
So he is, no, I'm taking the yards. I'm taking
Kelsey over sixty one a half yards. He had seventy
at least seventy yards in fourteen straight playoff games. Now,
because one team slowed him down and that, by the way,
they resulted in the Chiefs scoring thirty two points, we
think he's not gonna have a big super Bowl might
be the last game of his career. Now. He did
(58:29):
say it media Day that he was asked, what are
you gonna be doing in three years? In three years,
you're like, hopefully still playing for the Chiefs. That seems optimistic,
but he doesn't seem to think he's gonna, you know,
be retiring, But no, Kelsey's gonna have at least sixty
five yards. That's my favorite one of these. Yet is
so far? All right?
Speaker 2 (58:46):
Next Chiefs touchdown score Hollywood Brown one at plus two
eighty two at plus twenty five hundred, Xavier Worthy one
for one sixty five, and then two for plus twelve hundred,
and then Andre Hopkins won for plus five fifty twos
plus five thousand, five hundred.
Speaker 1 (59:08):
What's Kareem Hunt? Can you guys look that up and
put it on the screen. You guys know, I like this.
Kareem Hunt, and tell me Kareem Hunt? And tell me Mahomes?
Speaker 2 (59:18):
I feel like cream Hunts. So's I'm bind you for?
I'm sorry? Actually plus two ninety?
Speaker 1 (59:22):
No? I bet that. No, I bet he's lower than that. Yeah,
the mahomes? What's mahomes plus three ten? I? I gosh,
I don't know, man. If this game were to potentially
get out of hand, Demansey, could we see Andy do
(59:45):
a Philly special Travis passing to Patrick, I don't know.
Could the Chiefs do their own Mahomes? Is my answer?
Kareem's gonna score, but I'll take the I'll take Mahomes
plus three ten and I'll take Kareem plus one forty.
(01:00:06):
I'll parlay those two adds good money. All right, what's
the Eagles ones go ahead?
Speaker 2 (01:00:11):
Uh, Eagles touchdown? You got Jalen Hurts one touchdowns minus
one ten two plus five fifty. You got a j.
Brown ones at plus one sixty five, twos at plus
twelve hundred, and you got Devonte Smith one's plus two
forty twos two thousand plus two thousand.
Speaker 1 (01:00:27):
Jalen Hurts minus one ten just to score a touchdowns? Yeah, yeah,
that's an easy one. And Hunt and Mahomes to scores
plus nine fifty. Love it, love it um at Barkley's
minus one ninety five to score a touchdown. I understand.
I would. I would take the other side of that.
(01:00:49):
I would. I the Again, I'm not saying you won't score,
but if I choose he's it's plus four point fifty.
No TD, that can't be right. No that I was
gonna say the arbitrage that and crush. No, it's probably
like plus one forty no TV or something. All right,
(01:01:09):
what's this triple crown thing we're doing? Uh?
Speaker 2 (01:01:12):
Yeah, So who lead the game in past passing yards,
reception yards, and rushing yards.
Speaker 1 (01:01:18):
Between Mahomes, Kelsey Saquon. I was, I was bet here's
what I would do on that. Honestly, I would consider
doing Mahomes in Saquon and then betting a number of
different guys, Like if I were like Mahomes and Saquon
plus Kelsey, Mahomes and Saquon plus Worthy, Mahomes and Saquon
(01:01:41):
plus A. J. Brown. But I would do Mahomes, Kelsey
and Saquon, and I would imagine that's the favorite.
Speaker 2 (01:01:49):
Yep.
Speaker 1 (01:01:50):
I know that's probably the square bet, but I imagine that's
the favorite. All right, let's do the offer because this
podcast is going on too long, but then we've got
other stuff to do. Yeah, so it's you.
Speaker 2 (01:02:00):
Their offer has been rough. You didn't like a lot
of the offers this year, so I feel like I've
got it. But they were hitting you and you weren't
taking them, so we got to reach it.
Speaker 1 (01:02:11):
They even you guys gave me a Falcons first drive
missed field goal. It's like a thousand to one I do, Yeah, go.
Speaker 2 (01:02:17):
Ahead, Uh so we're gonna go through them. Yeah, fifty
nine seconds we're gonna run through here. You just tell
me yes or no if you like them.
Speaker 1 (01:02:24):
Okay, go all right?
Speaker 2 (01:02:25):
First off any quarter scoreless plus four ten, yeah your name?
Speaker 1 (01:02:29):
No?
Speaker 2 (01:02:30):
Yes? Any tight end to record first touchdown at plus
four fifty maybe okay. Chiefs to win by exactly three
points is at plus nine to fifty. Maybe keep going
the Xavier Worthy to have fifty plus yard fifty one
fifty plus yard reception at plus sixteen nine. No, okay,
(01:02:52):
Kelsey to score first and last touchdown at plus nine thousand.
Speaker 1 (01:02:56):
And ninety to one. Yes for yeah me up? Okay, Uh,
here're one your score. Prediction.
Speaker 2 (01:03:05):
Chiefs to win thirty four to twenty four is at
plus thirteen thousand, one.
Speaker 1 (01:03:09):
Hundred and thirty to one. Yes, sign me up.
Speaker 2 (01:03:12):
Octopus plus thirteen hundred.
Speaker 1 (01:03:15):
No, I don't you. Guys just hit me what octopus
were last year, and I thought it was dumb and
then it kept happening.
Speaker 2 (01:03:21):
Oh no, Uh, who will have more? Who have more?
Patrick Mahomes past attempts for Scottie Barnes points plus rebounds
and assists.
Speaker 1 (01:03:30):
That's it helps. I'm not I don't want to have
to pay attention on superol Sunday to the route, be like,
I've got a sweat out a Raptors game. That's stupid.
I'll take Kelsey first and last at ninety to one.
I'll take my score at one hundred and thirty to one.
And I guess if I'm taking Kelsey first and last, no,
then I won't even need the action on any tight
(01:03:50):
end to score the first TD because I've already got
that juice there. And sure, and Chiefs win by exactly
three points plus nine fifty. They win a lot of
Super Bowls by three points. I'll take that one as well.
All right, So last thing before we go to Monday
for episode three hundred. Uh so, yeah, we played the
side at the beginning. This shit's kind of highlight how
far the Chiefs have gotten. We just want to show
(01:04:12):
how far we've come in the three hundred episodes. Oh
for the what's right pot, We've got another shot for
you guys, let me hear it. But I said come
work with me on the podcast. Something got lost in translation.
I meant like, set up the cameras, make sure the
audio is right. And some genius back in LA was like, hey,
why don't we have him host it with you so
(01:04:32):
so far, so good. I'm enjoying it. Wow, I didn't
even remember.
Speaker 2 (01:04:37):
That betting you off in the middle of your yeah
on the show.
Speaker 1 (01:04:41):
And that was I mean three years. We're coming up
on three years, three hundred episodes. Pretty good. All right,
great job, see everyone in New Orleans. Enjoy the shows.
Talk to you guys soon. What's right,
Host
Nick Wright
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