Unlocking Behaviour Change

In the previous episode, Robert castigated economics and economists' concept of 'utility' as fundamentally flawed, leading to models whose predictions keep being wrong. This week, Robert sketches out a way of thinking about utility that could improve economic modelling, yield more accurate predictions, and provide a more rational basis for macro-economic policy. A bold claim ... but this is a podcast, not an academic paper!

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Robert has a bone to pick with economic theory . . . In fact, he wants to pick its bones clean and start over with a much better theory for everyone! Join the duo as they discuss what economic theory gets wrong and how it might be put right . . .  

Want more? Check out our latest books:  

Energise: The Secrets Of Motivation: https://shorturl.at/bbA7y 

React: Harness Your Animal Brain: https://shorturl.at/yi...

Derisory amounts of money paid for a piece of work called an 'honorarium' seem ok when if they were a 'fee', it would be insulting! Robert and Jamie discuss how we react differently to the same things when they are classified and labelled differently. This includes clinical diagnoses, where receiving a 'diagnosis' can be a huge relief to sufferers but can also carry stigma.

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Energis...

Robert and Jamie discuss the crucial question of how we classify and label things: one of the most basic things that we do in our mental and social world. But in an infinitely complex universe, putting things into boxes is fraught with difficulties, and classifications lie at the heart of important disputes.

Want more? Check out our latest books:  

Energise: The Secrets Of Motivation: https://shorturl.at/bb...

Robert and Jamie pay tribute to Dolly Parton - and Jamie plugs his video on her which can be found here - and then discuss how our intuitions about probability can be seriously misleading - leading to disastrous decisions. Robert explains why decision-makers must understand numerical probability. Robert claims that 'stats beat experience every time (almost)'! If we can estimate probability based on evidence, we should always do tha...

Robert and Jamie discuss various ways in which we understand probability, including a tendency to 'overchunk' probabilities ('possible', 'likely'), and how these can lead to disastrous decisions.

Want more? Check out our latest books:  

Energise: The Secrets Of Motivation: https://shorturl.at/bbA7y 

React: Harness Your Animal Brain: https://shorturl.at/yiFQ9  

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Robert makes the bold claim that 'probability' underlies all knowledge and that behavioural scientist should always be thinking about knowledge and claims we make in terms of 'priors' (their judgement of the likelihood that something is true before gathering some evidence) and their 'posterior probabilities' (their judgement of the likelihood that it is true after having gathered some evidence), and should never be 100% certain abo...

Robert and Jamie discuss the ubiquitous phenomenon, illustrated by one of the episodes in The Odyssey, that the first priority of our motivational system is not necessarily our best interests, or even what we most enjoy - it's something else. Because humans kind of know this, we are sometimes willing to put in place regulation and barriers on our own and others' behaviour to counter this. When it comes to AI, we face a very dangero...

In the second half of a two-parter, Robert explains the limitations of the Theory of Planned Behaviour and how the COM-B model addresses these. The Theory of Planned Behaviour is EXTREMELY widely used and increasingly so despite its age. Among the limitations of the TPB that COM-B addresses are: 1) TPB focuses on beliefs and intentions when emotions, drives, desires, habit, instinct, physical and psychological capabilities and our ...

The COM-B model of behaviour was put forward in 2011 as a comprehensive model of behaviour, capturing influences that lay within individuals (capability and motivation) as well as the outside world (opportunity). It has become popular, with some 17,000 citations to the original paper, but nothing like as popular as the Theory of Planned Behaviour, whose primary reference, published in 1991, currently has 186,000 citations! In 2025 ...

Last but not least in our miniseries on decision fails we have 'I didn't ask'. Even when we think we know it all, we should often ask for another opinion or perspective. And we should always reflect on our own limitations and be willing to consult experts for important decisions that require technical expertise. And even when we might not have asked for it, we should be prepared to listen to advice. 

But there is a catch! How ...

In the mini-series on decision fails - common things that we fail to do that result in mistakes when making decisions - this episode covers our failures of imagination. Robert thinks this plays a large part in the well-known phenomenon of 'temporal discounting' - failing adequately to concern ourselves about things the further in the future they may occur. But failing to imagine goes far beyond this, which is why we often go to gre...

Continuing on the ‘Top 5 Decision Fails’, Robert and Jamie discuss: ‘I didn’t think’. Why don’t leaders appear to think through the consequences of starting wars? When will the AI bubble burst?

Thinking things through comes in three main flavours: depth of analysis, breadth of analysis, and choice of 'decision rule'. Depth in the sense of tracing the possible consequences and their consequences f...

In this mini-series on the top five decision fails, Robert and Jamie discuss five important things we fail to do, or do properly, that lead to mistakes in decision-making. We don't claim that this is the be-all and end-all, but we put them forward as ones that are probably really worth paying attention to in order to improve the way we make decisions.

This episode covers 'I didn't check'. We have information that is relevant to the...

In this new mini-series, Robert and Jamie go through candidates for the five biggest decision-making mistakes and how to avoid them - maybe. The first one is ‘I didn’t look’ . . . Sounds obvious - but there are important nuances.

Robert and Jamie also discuss psychologists trying to make people look stupid ... 

And in the podcast, Robert refers to a questionnaire he developed in the 1990s called 'The Decision...

The Behaviour Change Wheel is geared towards behaviour change interventions that might be delivered by governments, comms agencies, service providers, companies or teams whose role is to influence the behaviour of whole populations, subpopulations, groups or individuals. But what about the everyday behaviour change among families and friends? What can we say about how to influence behaviour in these cases?

At the request of a colle...

Robert and Jamie delve into a class of Behaviour Change Techniques called 'Advise specific behaviour BCTs' in the BCT Ontology. Some are a bit weird, but among them is advising on practice. They discuss what’s the best way to practice a new skill, like a musical instrument. Should you have a beer in the middle of a run? What’s it like driving with your dad before a driving test? Find out all this and more in today&rsquo...

What if you had a list of everything you could possibly do to change behaviour? Well, today Robert talks about such a list: The Behaviour Change Technique Ontology and also how you can see it and use it yourself! Robert and Jamie then take a deeper dive into one of the categories of behaviour change technique: 'Advise how to change emotions BCT' and its sub-categories.

Here is a link to the Behaviour Change Technique Ontology (BCTO...

What is a ‘behaviour change technique’ (BCT)? How does the way you deliver a technique affect the outcome? What is the difference between a thought and a behaviour? Join Robert and Jamie as they introduce this highly useful and widely applicable concept.

Robert makes reference to the Behaviour Change Technique Ontology (BCTO) which is part of the Behaviour Change Intervention Ontology (BCIO). Here is a link to the BCIO ...