Paulitical Economy™
A snapshot of what’s going on in the world’s economy.
Episodes
- Americans are dining out less often.
- Traffic has been down eight months in a row.
- Yet Darden, owner of Olive Garden, is seeing same store sales accelerate.
- But not Wendy’s:
- US same store sales are accelerating downwards.
- They said that lower income consumers remain under pressure.
- And we take a look back.
- As financing costs go up, used car sales go down and loan losses go up.
- CarMax, the largest used car dealer in the US, is struggling...
- Manufacturing in the US has been contracting for most of the last three years.
- Chipotle has a younger customer base that is struggling economically and thus eating at home more often.
- Its share price is down 47% this year.
- Starbucks comparable sales finally turn positive – just.
- Introducing the PM Loser Index.
- McDonald’s sales tick down a bit but still in positive territory.
- Traffic from low-income consumers was down alm...
- All of a sudden a lot more companies are announcing layoffs.
- Things have significantly changed from when companies used to hoard employees just in case.
- A look back at Porsche.
- And sales are falling as their customers are feeling poorish.
- US inflation ticks up to its highest level in eight months with core inflation remaining well above the Fed’s 2% target.
- Which itself is a joke.
- Core inflation measures in...
- A look at social security in the US.
- It will be insolvent within ten years in large part because deductions from payroll to pay for social security are consumed rather than invested.
- Krispy Kreme is experiencing consumer demand that is softer than their donuts.
- And a look back.
- Sales for Gucci and Yves St. Laurent are less bad.
- And they sign a new deal with L’Oreal.
- L’Oreal continues to grow its like-for-li...
- Cheap funding has been the main cause of housing affordability crises.
- After two quarters of negative sales growth, luxury group LVMH creeps into positive territory.
- And after only one quarter of negative sales growth, Domino’s soars into positive growth territory.
- Amazing what happens when you improve your customer value proposition.
- Pepsi’s volume has declined for thirteen straight quarters.
- And prices continue to ris...
- Beer maker Constellation Brands’ sales and share price are going down faster than its beer.
- US office vacancy rate ticked down from last year.
- But is still over 25% in some Western cities.
- When you buy a home the government assumes you’re paying rent to yourself and they add it to GDP making the economy look much stronger than it really is.
- Particularly if there’s a housing bubble.
- Another reason policymakers li...
- Particularly if there’s a housing bubble.
- PACCAR is one of the leading truck manufacturers in the U.S.
- A look back.
- New truck deliveries are down 13.5% from pre-COVID
- J.B. Hunt is one of America’s largest trucking companies and its sales growth has finally nudged into positive territory.
- And no, supply chain bottlenecks did not cause the inflation of 2022.
- UPS sales growth in the US returns to negative territory.
- But Fedex’s sales accelerate.
- Mortgages in Ca...
- Two thirds of American workers are now living paycheck to paycheck.
- And job prospects are the lowest in at least 12 years.
- Kellogg’s has had a long history and the company split into two separate businesses a couple of years ago.
- Now both of those businesses will be taken over by private companies.
- Sales for both are very weak.
- Now both of those businesses will be taken over by private companies.
- Lennar is one of America’s largest home builders.
- Its home prices are now do...
- Tariffs are sending coffee prices soaring.
- A tax for American consumers with no benefit.
- Delta Airlines passenger revenue growth has been grinder lower for the last couple of years and is now flat:
- And now falling in economy class for two straight quarters.
- Lululemon has not grown comparable store sales in the US for a year and a half.
- And sales are accelerating downwards.
- The Canadian government has wisely...
- We start by taking a look back at Heinz.
- And two decisions that ended their long-term relationship with McDonald’s.
- Healthcare costs for Canadian boomers are being subsidised by the next generation.
- As well as their retirement.
- Headline consumer price inflation in the US ticks up in August and core inflation remains elevated.
- And it was mainly due to services i.e. not tariffs.
- Headline wholesale inflation f...
- After seven straight quarters of sales declines, and fourteen quarters of declining volume, Kraft Heinz has announced that they will split up the company.
- The merger of the two companies back in 2016 has been a disaster.
- And we take a look back.
- Canadians are falling behind on their debt payments.
- Home prices in Canada have outpaced those in the US.
- It’s primarily due to money supply growth and low interest rates.
- And Ca...
- 49% of the homes sold in the US this year were under the price of $400,000
- Up from 43% in 2023.
- Shooting deaths in New York City are at an all-time low.
- But shooting up is still a problem.
- Headline inflation in Canada excluding energy seems to be stabilising.
- But core inflation remains elevated.
- Canada’s income gap hits a record.
- The top 40% account for 66% of after-tax income.
- And 86% of net worth.
- The top 40% account for 66% of after-tax income.
- The Ford F-Series of pickup trucks have constantly been in the top six of cars sold going back to the 1960s.
- Pickup trucks now account for four of the top six.
- In the 2010s Japanese cars accounted for four of the top six.
- After experiencing two straight years of declining sales, Home Depot seems to be turning things around: slowly.
- Amazon continues its strong sales growth.
- Advertising and web services leading the way.
- Advertising and web services leading the way.
- Large movie chains in the US are outperforming the industry.
- And a look back at AMC Theatres.
- French luxury goods company LVMH sales are still falling.
- Especially in Japan.
- US renewable energy credits are going away.
- A Danish company is particularly impacted.
- A poll shows that a slight majority of Canadians want to see home prices fall.
- But the percentage of homeowners who want this is likely much lower. ...
- McDonald’s turns things around.
- But lower income consumers are suffering.
- Caterpillar sales are still falling but not as much.
- A turnaround?
- But things not looking good at Gucci.
- RH (luxury furniture) has really turned things around.
- And some examples of their great corporate culture.
- Molson Coors no longer seems to be benefiting from the boycott of Bud Light.
- It’s share price is down 54% over the last te...
- Starbucks is still seeing comparable store sales decline.
- But a fourth leg of their business is growing quickly.
- Chateau Lafite Rothschild is one of the world’s top wines.
- Its futures price is off 49% from its peak.
- Another look at the three main ways in which policymakers created Canada’s housing affordability crisis.
- They thought the benefits would trickle down to the next generation.
- Spoiler alert: they didn’t.
- They thought the benefits would trickle down to the next generation.
- General Motors has a long and interesting history.
- It has been hurt by tariffs, but sales did benefit as customers rushed to beat the tariffs.
- Women are twice as likely to be raped in the UK and Sweden than they are in the US.
- And a hundred times more likely than in Japan.
- Chipotle is a fast casual restaurant whose sales have been going in the wrong direction over the last year.
- A quick look back.
- Americans...
- Prices in the US are rising with eggs leading the way.
- To the extents that tariffs are pushing up prices it should be a one-time hit.
- Unless tariffs rise even further.
- To the extents that tariffs are pushing up prices it should be a one-time hit.
- Core inflation in Japan is steadily rising.
- Inflation in Canada is proving sticky.
- In Financial Ructions:
- We look at longer-term rates which are rising.
- This should lead to higher mortgage costs.
- We look at longer-term rates which are rising.
- In our book review of The Way the World...
- US booze companies see impact from tariffs.
- First positive and then negative.
- Nike has not grown its sales for seven straight quarters.
- And just experienced its largest sales decline so far.
- Cocoa bean prices are very volatile and near historic highs.
- A look at the world’s largest chocolate manufacturer.
- Hershey sales are suffering.
- As is its profitability as the high cocoa bean price bite.
- A look at...
- Florida is one of the weakest housing markets in America.
- But prices are still sky-high compared to pre-COVID
- Nationally, sellers outnumber buyers by half a million.
- Prices are falling in some areas, but even with prices falling many will remain priced out of the housing market.
- America’s largest home builder’s sales are accelerating downward.
- The issue is affordability constraints, but it’s not about mortgage ...
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