Paulitical Economy™

Paulitical Economy™

A snapshot of what’s going on in the world’s economy.

Episodes

January 12, 2026 35 mins
  • A look at how pension plans compare between the Canadian private and public sectors.
  • Car prices in the U.S. and Canada have soared.
    • And no, it’s not because of tariffs.
  • Macy’s seems to be turning around its business.
    • And more evidence of the Special K phenomenon.
  • But not all luxury companies are benefiting, and Saks Global may be filing for bankruptcy protection.
    • And we take a look back.
  • Continuing our luxur...
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  • The price of weight-loss drugs is plummeting.
  • Used luxury watches are a multibillion dollar business.
    • And so are fakes.
  • TV watching via streaming has taken over.
    • And YouTube leads the way.
  • The percentage of American homeowners with a mortgage has been declining.
    • But is due to a generational divide with the next generation’s monumental mortgage debt funding the retirement of mortgage-free Boomers.
  • Audiobooks ...
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  • Electric vehicle demand is a fraction of what auto manufacturers thought it would be.
    • But government involvement helped to distort expectations.
      • Ford takes a huge write-down.
  • Coty is a leading cosmetics/fragrance company founded in Paris.
    • Its sales are falling, but not as fast as its share price.
      • And we take a look back at this interesting business.
        • Do you know what a flacon is?
  • We revisit ...
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  • Christmas with Andy Williams and the murder trial of his ex-wife.
  • The US restaurant industry is seeing negative foot traffic. 
    • This is what happens when inflation drives dining costs through the roof.
  • However, after a rough patch in late 2024, Olive Garden owner Darden Restaurants continues to generate decent sales growth.
  • A quick, closer look at Costco Travel. 
    • And great deals on car rentals too.
  • And some people wi...
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  • Lululemon continues to struggle in the US.
  • While Costco continues to relentlessly drive sales higher.
  • People continue to flock to RH for luxury furniture.
    • But investors refuse to do likewise with the share price.
  • The overall rejection rate for new credit applications is the highest in at least ten years.
    • Almost half of mortgage refinance applications were rejected.
  • Auto parts sales in the US continue to do well.
    • ...
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  • I’m reposting my first and so far only Pollitical Economy (2023) which asked you for your favourite Christmas movie.
    • Giving you some Christmas viewing ideas.
  • Another look at Canada’s housing affordability crisis.
    • It’s more widespread than people think.
      • And how it’s predictably fueling anti-immigration attitudes.
  • Netflix is shooting the lights out.
    • And now they’re buying Warner Brothers.
      • And a look ba...
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  • Apple is a pretty impressive business founded by a very impressive entrepreneur.
    • But its share price is way ahead of the business i.e. expensive.
      • We take a look back.
  • After many quarters of negative comparable store sales growth, Best Buy’s sales are actually accelerating.
    • Strongest growth in over four years.
  • Hewlitt-Packard adjusted sales have now grown for six straight quarters.
    • And we take a look bac...
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  • Home Depot sales are once again weakening.
    • They’re blaming a lack of hurricanes.
  • Target department store sales are accelerating downwards.
    • With discretionary items taking the biggest hit.
  • Meanwhile, consumers are increasingly turning to off-price retailers such as TJ Maxx and Marshalls.
    • Sales are accelerating upwards.
  • Core inflation in Canada remains elevated.
    • And I add some comments on the scandalous in...
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  • Americans are dining out less often.
  • Traffic has been down eight months in a row.
  • Yet Darden, owner of Olive Garden, is seeing same store sales accelerate.
  • But not Wendy’s:
  • US same store sales are accelerating downwards.
  • They said that lower income consumers remain under pressure.
  • And we take a look back.
  • As financing costs go up, used car sales go down and loan losses go up.
  • CarMax, the largest used car dealer in the US, is struggling...
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  • Manufacturing in the US has been contracting for most of the last three years.
  • Chipotle has a younger customer base that is struggling economically and thus eating at home more often.
    • Its share price is down 47% this year.
  • Starbucks comparable sales finally turn positive – just.
  • Introducing the PM Loser Index.
  • McDonald’s sales tick down a bit but still in positive territory.
    • Traffic from low-income consumers was down alm...
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  • All of a sudden a lot more companies are announcing layoffs.
    • Things have significantly changed from when companies used to hoard employees just in case.
  • A look back at Porsche.
    • And sales are falling as their customers are feeling poorish.
  • US inflation ticks up to its highest level in eight months with core inflation remaining well above the Fed’s 2% target.
    • Which itself is a joke.
  • Core inflation measures in...
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  • A look at social security in the US.
    • It will be insolvent within ten years in large part because deductions from payroll to pay for social security are consumed rather than invested.
  • Krispy Kreme is experiencing consumer demand that is softer than their donuts.
    • And a look back.
  • Sales for Gucci and Yves St. Laurent are less bad.
    • And they sign a new deal with L’Oreal.
  • L’Oreal continues to grow its like-for-li...
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  • Cheap funding has been the main cause of housing affordability crises.
  • After two quarters of negative sales growth, luxury group LVMH creeps into positive territory.
  • And after only one quarter of negative sales growth, Domino’s soars into positive growth territory.
    • Amazing what happens when you improve your customer value proposition.
  • Pepsi’s volume has declined for thirteen straight quarters.
    • And prices continue to ris...
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  • Beer maker Constellation Brands’ sales and share price are going down faster than its beer. 
  • US office vacancy rate ticked down from last year. 
    • But is still over 25% in some Western cities. 
  • When you buy a home the government assumes you’re paying rent to yourself and they add it to GDP making the economy look much stronger than it really is.
    • Particularly if there’s a housing bubble. 
      • Another reason policymakers li...
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  • PACCAR is one of the leading truck manufacturers in the U.S.
    • A look back.
    • New truck deliveries are down 13.5% from pre-COVID
  • J.B. Hunt is one of America’s largest trucking companies and its sales growth has finally nudged into positive territory.
    • And no, supply chain bottlenecks did not cause the inflation of 2022.
  • UPS sales growth in the US returns to negative territory.
  • But Fedex’s sales accelerate.
  • Mortgages in Ca...
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  • Two thirds of American workers are now living paycheck to paycheck.
    • And job prospects are the lowest in at least 12 years.
  • Kellogg’s has had a long history and the company split into two separate businesses a couple of years ago.
    • Now both of those businesses will be taken over by private companies.
      • Sales for both are very weak.
  • Lennar is one of America’s largest home builders.
    • Its home prices are now do...
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  • Tariffs are sending coffee prices soaring.
    • A tax for American consumers with no benefit.
  • Delta Airlines passenger revenue growth has been grinder lower for the last couple of years and is now flat:
    • And now falling in economy class for two straight quarters.
  • Lululemon has not grown comparable store sales in the US for a year and a half.
    • And sales are accelerating downwards.
  • The Canadian government has wisely...
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  • We start by taking a look back at Heinz.
    • And two decisions that ended their long-term relationship with McDonald’s.
  • Healthcare costs for Canadian boomers are being subsidised by the next generation.
    • As well as their retirement.
  • Headline consumer price inflation in the US ticks up in August and core inflation remains elevated.
    • And it was mainly due to services i.e. not tariffs.
  • Headline wholesale inflation f...
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  • After seven straight quarters of sales declines, and fourteen quarters of declining volume, Kraft Heinz has announced that they will split up the company.
    • The merger of the two companies back in 2016 has been a disaster.
    • And we take a look back.
  • Canadians are falling behind on their debt payments.
  • Home prices in Canada have outpaced those in the US.
    • It’s primarily due to money supply growth and low interest rates.
    • And Ca...
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  • 49% of the homes sold in the US this year were under the price of $400,000
    • Up from 43% in 2023.
  • Shooting deaths in New York City are at an all-time low.
    • But shooting up is still a problem.
  • Headline inflation in Canada excluding energy seems to be stabilising.
    • But core inflation remains elevated.
  • Canada’s income gap hits a record.
    • The top 40% account for 66% of after-tax income.
      • And 86% of net worth.
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