D-Risk Investing Podcast

Is Arista Networks (ANET) a premier growth compounder taking a healthy breather, or is this 15% pullback the first sign of a classic value trap? As the "central nervous system" of the AI revolution, Arista boasts a fortress balance sheet and elite margins, yet technical indicators flash bearish momentum. We dissect the massive disconnect between aggressive DCF models and cooling market sentiment. We break down what the market’s rea...

Is it possible that "bad news" in the real economy is actually the secret fuel for a massive market rally? This week on D-Risk, we go inside the "Deflationary Melt-Up", a strange contradiction where Crude Oil is crashing while Gold and the Nasdaq 100 soar toward new heights. We explore a world of massive policy divergence, from the FTSE 100’s pivot-driven surge to the Nikkei 225’s struggle under the Bank of Japan’s tightening grip....

Roblox (RBLX) lives in the imagination of millions, but its financials are telling a drastically different story. With the stock down 30% and legal headwinds mounting, a massive disconnect has emerged between Wall Street’s bullish narrative and the cold, hard data. Is this the perfect time to buy the dip on a metaverse pioneer, or is the "growth at any cost" era over? We dissect the valuation chasm, the technical breakdown, and th...

The "soft landing" illusion has shattered. Despite a fresh Federal Reserve rate cut, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 sold off as the market finally woke up to a "Recession Reality Check." In this episode, we dissect the violent capital rotation that sent crude oil plunging while gold surged, signaling a potential global slowdown. We also analyze the dangerous decoupling between U.S. volatility and the resilience seen in the Nikkei 225 ...

Welcome to the launch episode of our new series, "D-Risk Investing Concepts," created to empower the Future Investor. This inaugural episode cuts through the market noise to define one of the fundamental elements of the financial world: The Stock. We analyze how a company secures funding, contrasting Debt (a binding loan with interest) against Equity (selling ownership for a share of potential profits). By exploring the historical ...

This week on D-Risk Investing, we tackle Carvana's (CVNA) mind-bending rally. After nearly collapsing, the online used car giant is joining the S&P 500 at a jaw-dropping 170x forward P/E, while its fundamental valuation sits four times lower. Is this equity a genuine, debt-slashing turnaround story justified by massive operational leverage, or is the stock price running on pure, speculative momentum and short-squeeze fuel? We ...

The Dollar Capitulation: Why is the market shorting the US Dollar right before the Fed meeting? This week, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) broke a critical technical Death Cross at 99.00, confirming a major bearish shift that is fueling an "everything rally" despite a "stagflation lite" backdrop in the U.S. While the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures consolidated, international markets (Nikkei 225, Hang Seng Index, DAX) surged on the ...

The Micron Technology (MU) stock run has been monumental, but a massive disconnect is flashing across the Street: Traditional backward-looking valuation models are pricing the memory giant for disaster, while the market's forward view is betting everything on the AI supercycle and its insatiable demand for HBM and DRAM chips. This episode dissects the tension between stunning technical strength and an anchor of debt, corporate turn...

🤯 The "Bad News Bid": Why is the Market Rallying into a Global Recession? Tune in for the D-Risk Weekly Global Markets Brief as we unpack the market's shocking embrace of bad economic news, a phenomenon we call the "Bad News Bid." With consumer confidence cracking and growth forecasts being slashed from the EU to Asia, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are climbing because investors believe this weakness guarantees aggressive rate cuts ...

In this special episode, we're announcing a major pivot for the D-Risk Investing podcast. We explain why we're moving away from daily market briefs and stock analysis, which have a short shelf-life, to provide you with more durable, in-depth value. We're proposing a new 3-show weekly format: "The Weekly Thesis" (a forward-looking global markets analysis), the "Stock Deep Dive" (a comprehensive weekly analysis of one stock's long-te...

🚨 Crisis Alert: The Data Void Shatters Market Complacency! 🚨 The crucial CPI report vanished, plunging investors and the Fed into a "Data Void" that triggered a massive risk-off cascade across global markets. Tune in as we track the fear: Nasdaq futures collapse 1.33% while the Vix explodes past 22, signaling the end of the market's bullish run. From the technical breakdown of the German DAX and the sharp pullback in the Nikkei 2...

AI Boom vs. Valuation Headwind: Applied Materials: The semiconductor giant, Applied Materials (AMAT), just reported a record year fueled by the relentless AI buildout, so why is the stock crumbling? While fundamentals remain electric, a stretched valuation and new geopolitical risks around China spending are creating a major rift. The charts are flashing sell signals, suggesting the powerful bull market trend has hit a wall. Is the...

The Brazilian fintech giant, Nu Holdings (NU), just delivered blockbuster earnings and an AI-first strategy, yet the stock sold off sharply. Is this a healthy pause or is a stretched valuation finally winning the battle against stellar fundamental growth? We dive into the technical analysis and market sentiment to explore the core conflict—a rocket stock potentially running out of fuel in a risk-off environment. Don't trade blind....

Post-Shutdown Reality Check: Can We Trust the Data? Markets have traded for weeks on a powerful rate-cut fantasy, but the S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures are now pausing as the Post-Shutdown Reality Check sets in. With the crucial October CPI report's release, and integrity, in doubt, the data fog has been replaced by pure uncertainty. We break down the massive global market divergence: Gold and the bond market are accelerating a hi...

Growth Monster or Dilution Danger? AI infrastructure hyper-grower Nebius Group just landed a massive three-billion-dollar deal with Meta, yet the stock is collapsing under intense selling pressure. The story is a spectacular growth narrative powered by soaring revenues and bullish analyst price targets, but the harsh reality of cash burn and a new equity offering is signaling a flooded share supply. Is the market wisely de-risking...

Quantum Catastrophe? Rigetti Computing (RGTI) is caught in a profound conflict: Wall Street analysts are overwhelmingly bullish on its world-changing quantum technology, yet our intrinsic value models are flashing a deeply concerning negative valuation. As the stock hemorrhages gains and the market holds its breath for today's CPI report, the question becomes: Is this a healthy correction in a future leader, or has the reality of ...

Rate-cut fever has intensified, cementing a high-conviction market bet that bad economic news is unequivocally good news for asset prices. U.S. equities are soaring, Gold is at fresh highs ($4,135.60), and volatility is complacent ($VIX 17.16). Yet, bond and currency traders are showing caution (10Y Yields steady at 4.12%), and crude oil ($60.17) is pricing in the very economic weakness that's driving the rate-cut speculation. Toda...

Is networking giant Cisco ($CSCO) fluent in the language of AI, or is the market overpaying for a forty-year-old story? Heading into today's earnings, the stock boasts an undeniable long-term bullish trend and a high-profile NVIDIA partnership. Yet, our valuation analysis suggests the price is trading at a significant premium, challenging the fundamental case for the rally. With short-term momentum fading, the conflict is clear: is...