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February 26, 2025 44 mins

Kristi Noem has announced that she's found some leakers within DHS and they'll be fired. Jesse Kelly says that's not enough of a punishment. Speaking of ICE raids, there was a big one in Texas. Jesse gets the scoop from The Daily Wire's Spencer Lindquist. And what about weak Republicans selling out America? Just wait until you hear what Dan Crenshaw had to say about Tucker Carlson. Will these weak Republicans lose their primary elections in 2026? Seth Keshel joins Jesse for a way-too-early midterm election preview.


I'm Right with Jesse Kelly on The First TV | 2-25-25

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Episode Transcript

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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Let's talk about changing their mentality.

Speaker 2 (00:05):
Have they changed their mentality?

Speaker 1 (00:07):
Let's do a way too early preview of the midterms.
What can we be looking at in the midterms, A
huge scoop out of Texas, all that and more coming
up on I'm right, Okay, Let's discuss briefly what we

(00:29):
have going on as it pertains to the left, the
communists in this country. Because there's a lot of celebrating
on our side right now, and that's good. You should
be celebrating. You should be happy. I am celebrating. I
am happy, But we do need to keep something in mind.
They haven't changed and and here's why they haven't changed.
They haven't changed anything they believe, they haven't changed anything

(00:52):
they think, and they haven't changed because for them, For
the American communists, remember it is religion. And you don't
just give up your religion because you lose an election
because you're on the outs, because the poll numbers happen
to look bad and the public is rejecting you. The
Democrat Party, according to polling right now, is at an

(01:16):
all time low, all time as long as they've been
polling parties. The Democrats who are in the low thirties.
They've never seen numbers like that before. Trump fifty two
percent approval rating for a president.

Speaker 2 (01:26):
That's absurd. Country loves it. The country loves.

Speaker 1 (01:30):
Trump, the country hates Democrats. And so the firing of
Joy Reid actually brought this home to me.

Speaker 2 (01:38):
I saw her say this.

Speaker 3 (01:43):
I went hard on so many issues, went hard for
immigrants who've done nothing but come to this country like
my parents did and try to make a life and
defended them. Or whether we've talked about what the president
is doing that is subversive to the Constitution and that
is injurious to our liberty, you know, defending books that

(02:06):
people find inconvenient. You know that Nicole Hannah Jones put
into our spirit that we need to understand sixteen nineteen
as the real founding of this country, whether it's talking
about any of these issues, and yes, whether it's talking
about Gaza. I'm not sorry. I am not sorry that
I stood up for those those things, because those things

(02:28):
are of God.

Speaker 1 (02:32):
Here's a list of bullet points of insane things that
I've said. This is me telling you I'm not sorry,
And at the end, this is me attributing it to
who God. It's a religion we are still up against
religious zelots, and we have so much work to do

(02:54):
in this next four years to ensure these people can
never come back. And we're going to do a little
midterm preview in a while. But I am curious what's
going to happen during the mid terms, because these people
haven't learned anything about what the American people want, about
the appetite the American people have for their insanity. I

(03:14):
put something up the other day on social mediums on Twitter.
I was curious about this because I don't personally hang
out with any Democrats. Sorry, I'm a partisan. I don't
like Democrats. I don't hang out with it. But I
know a lot of people do, and a lot of
people maybe you're in a blue area you can't avoid it.
Maybe you're married to one, right, maybe your mom is one,
maybe your kid is one of a lot of people

(03:36):
are in that situation where they hang out with Democrats
on some level. And the question I posed was this,
have they expressed any regret, any regret at all, any
regret about arresting their political opponent.

Speaker 2 (03:52):
Just let's dwell on that for a moment.

Speaker 1 (03:55):
They arrested their political opponent, charged him with ridiculars, felonies,
just naked banana republic tyranny, and everyone across the globe,
they'd still talk about what Democrats did to Donald Trump.

Speaker 2 (04:10):
It looked so about rating mar Lago.

Speaker 1 (04:12):
It is awful, it was evil and everyone with eyes
can see it. And I asked, does the Democrat in
your life have they ever said anything.

Speaker 2 (04:23):
That expressed regret about that? None.

Speaker 1 (04:27):
I think one guy said one thing that, well, the
mar a Lago raid made us look bad. Beyond that,
I think there were thousands of replies, Oh, my moms.
One never said a thing. My moms, one never said
a thing. They're still mad. I didn't get vaccinated. Not
an ounce of regret at all, because they haven't given
up their religion, and I don't know that they can.

(04:49):
Speaking of Joy Reid. Actually this is a perfect example here.
Rachel Maddow works for MSNBC. She works for MSNBC. MSNBC
is Rachel Maddow's employer, and not only are they her employer,
they pay her millions and millions of dollars. I forget
what it is she makes, but it's an absurd amount

(05:10):
of money. Don't look it up.

Speaker 2 (05:11):
You'll just want to bash your head off a desk.

Speaker 1 (05:14):
Rachel Maddow came out and said this about the Joy read.

Speaker 4 (05:18):
Firing Joy is not taking a different job in the network.
She is leaving the network altogether. And that is very,
very very hard to take. I do not want to
lose her as a colleague here at MSNBC, and personally,
I think it is a bad mistake to let her
walk out the door. It is not my call, and
I understand that, but that's what I think.

Speaker 2 (05:40):
I will tell you.

Speaker 4 (05:40):
It is also unnerving to see that on a network
where we've got two count of two non white hosts
in primetime. Both of our non white hosts in primetime
are losing their shows, as is Katie Fang on the weekend,
and that feels worse than Bed no matter who replaces now,
that feels indefensible. And I do not defend it.

Speaker 1 (06:08):
Calling her employer, and not exactly in those words, but
calling her employer or a racist on the network if
you like, n could showing up here every day and
trashing the first Ah, these dirtballs at the first what,
How could you be so brazen? How could you be
so dumb? She's not dumb. She's a religious seller and

(06:30):
no matter what happens at MSNBC, no matter how big
the paychecks.

Speaker 2 (06:34):
Are, She's still a believer, you see.

Speaker 1 (06:37):
And it goes way beyond because let's just move off
the media crap, Joy Read and Rachel Maddow, who gives
a crap about them? We have to remember as the
Trump administration tries as hard as they possibly can to
clean out the communist filth from inside the government, we
have to remember there are so many of these people

(06:58):
who are still in extreme positions of power. I realize
Brown is no longer Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, but
keep in mind, like five minutes ago, this guy was
the top man in the United States military.

Speaker 5 (07:13):
I can't fix centuries of racism in our country, nor
can I fix decades that discrimination may have impacted members
of our air force. I'm thinking about how I can
make improvements personally, professionally and institutionally so that all erin
both to day tomorrow appreciate the value of diversity and
conservative environment where they can reach their full potential. I

(07:36):
want them wisdom and nods to lead, participate in, and
listen to necessary conversations on racism, diversity, and inclusion.

Speaker 2 (07:46):
These people are everywhere.

Speaker 1 (07:48):
Brown may be gone, but they're everywhere, and they are
still working against us.

Speaker 2 (07:53):
They are not sorry.

Speaker 1 (07:54):
They're not looking at the pole numbers of Democrats and
thinking they should make changes.

Speaker 2 (07:58):
Remember what Garrett O'Boyle FBI with the BLURA.

Speaker 1 (08:01):
Then when he came on the show and said yesterday
about what's happening inside the FBI right out of the gates.

Speaker 6 (08:06):
After he put that forward, five hundred headed to Alabama,
one thousand heading out to the field because they want
to clear out the DC. Apparatic that absolutely is what
needs to be done. It's a great place to start.
But right away I heard from someone who is in
a position to know the details, said that these people

(08:27):
are already trying to subvert that order.

Speaker 2 (08:30):
They said, Oh, don't worry about it.

Speaker 6 (08:31):
We're going to we're going to do what we call
paper transfers, and we're going to make it look like, yes,
we're assigned in Alabama now or wherever else, but in reality,
we're going to stay right here and continue our subversive
Marxist ways.

Speaker 1 (08:48):
We have much work to do, is the point of
all this, and we can't back off, and we have
to actually be sterner than we've been so far, even
after a month.

Speaker 2 (08:58):
And I've told you I'm ecstatic. I'm through, I really am.

Speaker 1 (09:01):
But I saw Christinome came out today and address you
remember the Ice raid. Maybe you forgot we had an
ice raid that didn't produce results. They showed up this
apartment complex hoping to arrest a bunch of these dirtballs,
and the guys were gone.

Speaker 2 (09:17):
What happened turned out.

Speaker 1 (09:19):
Somebody leaked the ice raid. Somebody inside of the federal
government leaked the ice raid so murderers and rapists could
avoid arrest.

Speaker 2 (09:29):
And Christinome came out today and said.

Speaker 7 (09:31):
This, I have found some leakers. We are continuing to
get more. They will be fired. There will be consequences.
And remember when they leak information to the press in
order to blow an up, they are putting law enforcement
lives in jeopardy. I'm using polygraphs to go after and
to really interview these folks because we are a national

(09:51):
security agency. I have that tool. I can use also
looking at their emails, looking at their communications. And it's
amazing how these bureaucrats who have an agenda to stop
the work that we're doing to bring safety to America,
how they will sell each other down the river if
it's just to protect themselves. So don't worry. I am
doing everything to find these leakers and to get rid

(10:12):
of them so that we can do our work and
our law enforcement officers and agents can do it safely.

Speaker 2 (10:20):
Firing or firing them using your position of power inside
of the United States government to put the lives of
law enforcement agents, the law enforcement guys in jeopardy while
also ensuring that rapists and murderers can continue to roam
free and pillage this country like the animals they are,

(10:44):
and the consequences of that are going to be firing.

Speaker 1 (10:50):
It's not good enough, it's not near enough. The religious
zealot the only understands fear and pain. We should be
happy about what's going on right now. I am, but
this is not near enough. It is time to start
sending people to prison. All that may have made you uncomfortable,

(11:11):
but I am.

Speaker 2 (11:11):
Right now. I'm gonna show you something. See that. That's
my watch.

Speaker 1 (11:19):
Now, that's a Wasson watch, amazing, beautiful watch. Wife loves it.
I didn't buy the watch because it's nice, although it is.
I didn't buy the watch because you know it's made
by a marine guy who runs Wasson Marine, Paul wonderful man.
I got a Wasson Watch because they support my values

(11:43):
loudly and proudly. How many watch companies out there that
make high end quality watches like this? How many watch
companies out there will speak out on behalf of the
unborn unapologetically? Can you name one? I can only name one.
It's Wasson Watch. That's where I will get every watch
I have from now on. You want one, put your

(12:06):
money where your morals are great. Gift ten percent off
Wassonwatch dot com promo code Jesse gets you ten percent off.

Speaker 2 (12:16):
We'll be back.

Speaker 1 (12:26):
Have you ever heard of Colony Ridge. It's an interesting,
interesting little spot and it's something you definitely should have
heard about. In fact, I'm assuming you're going to be
hearing more about it in the coming days. Joining me
now to discuss it is Spencer Lindquists, wonderful investigative reporter
with the Daily Wire.

Speaker 2 (12:44):
Hey, Spencer, what's Colony Ridge? It sounds lovely.

Speaker 8 (12:48):
Coliny Ridge is anything but lovely. It is a sixty
square mile development just north of Houston, and it covers
thirty three thousand acres for context, and it is set
to read a reach a population of two hundred and
fifty thousand people eight quarter million people. That's larger than Knoxville, Tennessee,
larger than Boise, Idaho, or Scottsdale, Arizona. And it is

(13:10):
built on systematically attracting illegal aliens inside a Texas into
the interior of our country.

Speaker 2 (13:16):
And we've seen the results of it.

Speaker 8 (13:17):
We've seen criminality. We've seen these raids now in Colony
Ridge from ICE and from the Texas at Department of
Public Safety, and they've been rounding up criminal, illegal aliens,
including child sex offenders, drug runners, and people who are
allied with the cartels.

Speaker 1 (13:34):
Spencer, could you rewind to the very beginning and bore
me with the details and explain to me how two
hundred and fifty thousand, many of whom are illegal, were
able to set up a sixty square miles shop inside
of the red state of Texas.

Speaker 2 (13:50):
How did this happen?

Speaker 8 (13:51):
Well, we first visited Colony Ridge in twenty twenty three,
and we dropped our first investigation on it in September
of that year. It's impossible to really nail down these
sise population figures, but we do know that they are
targeting two hundred and fifty thousand, and that's the number
they'll reach if they are allowed to. And really, what
we've seen is that this is an industry. Mass immigration
is a business. It's a business from the cartel coyotes

(14:13):
in the southern border to the resettlement agencies that DOGE
is now looking into that dump migrants into American communities.
And it's a business for Caliny Ridge and the developers
John and Trey Harris brothers there, who have profited off
of mass immigration, and they have completely irreparably damaged a
once quiet Texas community. They tell people that they can

(14:35):
own land in America. That's the language they use. Of course,
it's all in Spanish, not in English. And they also
say that you can buy in cliny Ridge without a
Social Security number. And this is something that has been
allowed to happen. It flourished in Texas for years until
the Daily Wire began reporting on it, and then we
saw a series of crackdowns. We saw a Texas Legislature

(14:55):
special session on the matter. We saw a lawsuit from
the Department of Justice and the Consumer Findal Nancial Protection
Bureau alleging that there are predatory lending practices, and we
saw a similar lawsuit from the Texas Attorney General. Now
we're seeing these ice raids, and we've seen swift, swift
action from the Trump administration. But this was allowed to
flourish for years, not in Illinois, not in California, not

(15:17):
in New York, but in Texas, the epitome of a
red state.

Speaker 1 (15:22):
Do they have a government that I mean, did they
have a mayor, a city council? Do they have people
in charge who are looking the other way?

Speaker 8 (15:31):
This is a company, really, and it's a land development.
They have this interesting legal designation. They've got what's called
an MMD and effectively what it is, it's a legal
arrangement that they lobbied for through the Texas legislature, and
it gives them certain powers, almost quasi governmental powers. They
don't have their own police force, they don't have city council,

(15:54):
but they do have the ability to tax their residents,
and we've seen some interesting use of those taxes pair
of dollars. We broke a story on this last year
or perhaps in twenty twenty three, actually on the nature
of these taxes and where exactly they went, how they
flowed back into the pockets of people who are tied
to the developers. But all that's to say that this

(16:15):
is something that was allowed to happen for years upon years,
and really we only saw action on it once we
brought the scrutiny against this development through our investigations.

Speaker 1 (16:25):
Okay, so the Trump administration they've got ice in there,
they're digging out the dirt balls. Do you have any sense, Spencer,
because you've done all the reporting on it. Two hundred
and fifty thousand people. They're not all illegal, are they?
How many people need to be cleared out of this place?

Speaker 8 (16:42):
It's impossible to know exactly how many people live there,
and it's impossible to know exactly how many of them
are illegal aliens. Right now, we estimate that there's probably
anywhere from seventy thousand to one hundred thousand people there,
and of course there's that trajectory that'll carry it to
two hundred and fifty thousand if they're allowed to continue.
But right now, we've seen that there were ninety illegal
aliens who were captured in these raids yesterday. There was

(17:04):
other illegal aliens that were captured before that, including a
Guatemalan human smuggler who fed say was responsible for a
mass casualty event when illegal aliens he was smuggling in
the United States got killed when a tractor trailer crashed.
There is also a various different multiple murderers, alleged murders
who were wanted by the international police. There is an

(17:24):
llegal alien who said that who admitted actually that he
was guilty to killing a woman at gunpoint in Coloney Ridge.
And then just yesterday there was an MS thirteen member
who'd been deported from the United States seven times on
seven different occasions. He invaded our country and came back
and was deported. He led police on a seven hour

(17:44):
manhunt after it is allegedly fatally stabbed an individual. It's
no coincidence that these illegal aliens, many of whom were
deported previously, and that they end up in Coloney Ridge.
The red carpet has been rolled out for criminal ee
aliens in Colney Ridge and people have gotten rich off it,
while many politicians unfortunately looked the other way until this

(18:07):
was brought into the public guy through our reports.

Speaker 1 (18:10):
Good Reeve Tom Holman was at sea pack talking tough
about all this stuff or he was.

Speaker 9 (18:18):
Let me start out by saying this, if I offend
anybody today, I don't give it. Don't care the media
in the back room. I'm sure i'llby reading a lot
of hit pieces on pieces on me tomorrow. I don't
give ah what you think about me. I wake up

(18:38):
every day for the last four years pissed off because
the right administration took the most secure border in my
lifetime and unsecured on purpose. Right. I worked for six presidents,
starting with Ronald Reagan. Every president ever worked for took
steps to secure the border. Even Clinton Obama took steps
to secure the border. They clearly understood you can't have

(19:00):
national security a lot border security. They got it. Joe
Biden's the first present history of the national came into
office in unsecured the border and purpose. So for four
years I wake up every day pissed off. That changed November.

Speaker 1 (19:15):
Fifth, Spencer, He's obviously not playing around because now they're
arresting business owners as well.

Speaker 2 (19:24):
That's right.

Speaker 8 (19:24):
The ice under the leadership of of course the Trump
administration and of Tom Home in particular. You're right, they're
not messing around. They're not messing around in Coloney Ridge.
They started deporting people after just the first seven days
of being an office, they started deporting people in Colney
Ridge and then they had this raid. And yes they're
also going after business owners. We saw this in the
Rio Grand Valley where there was a bakery that had

(19:46):
employed eight illegal aliens illegally and they were found to
be harboring illegal aliens that of course is not legal,
so they could be facing jail time for this. And
this gets back to a core point that legal immigration
is a business. It's one big industry and unfortunately there
are corporate interests in this country that profit from cheap labor,

(20:08):
and in order to seal the border, of course, deportations
are one solution.

Speaker 2 (20:13):
Another potential solution.

Speaker 8 (20:14):
Is cutting off the economic consentives that bring people across
the border and that lead corporate interests to hire people
for cheap labor.

Speaker 1 (20:23):
Spencer, We are now seeing resistance groups putting names and
addresses up of ice guys in places like Los Angeles.
What can what will be done about this stuff?

Speaker 8 (20:36):
There are radical activists classes in cities like Los Angeles, Chicago,
New York, and various different places across the country, and
we should expect them to continue attempting these types of
radical actions to target and clearly in danger law enforcement
and members of ice. So I imagine that the Department
of Justice is looking into these cases. I imagine that

(20:56):
the federal government is not going to take any of
these threats lightly because these are federal agents who are
enforcing federal law, oftentimes enforcing federal law in contradiction of
the wishes of states like California or New York or
other sanctuary jurisdictions. And it's no surprise, unfortunately, to see
these types of radical extremists trying to target members of

(21:18):
law enforcement.

Speaker 2 (21:19):
I expect it to.

Speaker 8 (21:19):
Continue unless the Department of Justice or the federal government
writ large puts a stop to it.

Speaker 1 (21:27):
Spencer, I appreciate it. Come back soon, thank you. All right,
let's change your cell phone real quick, shall we, before
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Speaker 2 (22:25):
We'll be back.

Speaker 1 (22:34):
Well, all the world leaders are showing up at the
White House. Now McCrone shows up, British PM Stormer Sturmer.
I don't know how to say his stupid British name.
He's showing up on Thursday. They're all showing up to
kiss the ring, kiss up Donald Trump. And and look
here's what's happening right now globally. Let's just have a
talk about it. Trump is attempting again big things. We've

(22:57):
talked about this many times. Trump intends to do big
things during his four year presidency. He just does. He
wants to do big things. He wasn't joking about Greenland,
he wasn't joke obviously about the Gulf of America. He
wasn't joking about the Panama Canal. And he's not kidding.
When it comes to realigning things with trade and tariffs,
he's dead serious. And when it comes to Europe, he's

(23:20):
dead serious about that as well. The United States of
America has for decades provided all of Europe's defense. If
you ever look at the numbers, we provide about ninety
percent of the national defense for the entire continent of Europe.
It has gone one way. It has been one sided.

(23:43):
And Trump expressed a lot of frustration with that. During
his first four years, he was always whipping NATO, you're
supposed to spend this. We're providing everything. You're supposed to
spend that. We're providing everything. And now he's pressing him,
and he's pressing him hard because he intends to realign
that situation, a situation that has only gone one way,

(24:04):
with American taxpayers footing the bill for the defense of
socialist European countries.

Speaker 2 (24:10):
And let's discuss that part. There is a chance during.

Speaker 1 (24:14):
This four years that we will see some kind of
a realignment of American foreign policy period and that realignment may.

Speaker 2 (24:23):
Be difficult for you or me. I don't know what
it's going to look like.

Speaker 1 (24:25):
It may be difficult for us to take in because
it may be such a radical departure from where we've been.
But let's discuss. Let's discuss a little bit of the why.
When it comes to that, should we have a close
relationship with the UK?

Speaker 2 (24:43):
That pause for a moment.

Speaker 1 (24:45):
I'm an England fan, you know, if you've ever listened
to this show for any length of time. I love
the people, I love the country, I love the history.
I'm an England fan. Right, so it's not an anti
England thing. But should the United States of America closely
aligned itself with a country that arrests people for Facebook posts?

(25:05):
We are the land of the free. We have been
the vanguard of freedom around the globe for a very very,
very long time. We are proud of that, We brag
about that. How do we continue to have a relationship
like this with the country that arrests people for speech.
They're doing the same stuff in Germany. How do we

(25:27):
continue to remain allies with this country? You know, people
yell and scream and rant and rave about Trump talking
to Putin, which we'll get to that in a moment,
about what happened earlier today. They rant and rave about
all that, And I understand that I understand for a
lot of Americans it can be such a radical thing
to even talk.

Speaker 2 (25:47):
To Russia's leader.

Speaker 1 (25:48):
We grew up with the Soviet unions or enemy all
that stuff. I understand the feelings people have, But what's
the real point that people have a problem with Putin?

Speaker 2 (25:58):
About? What is it with?

Speaker 1 (25:59):
Putin's a tirer he is. Putin arrests his political opponents.
Putin doesn't allow people to speak out against him. So
you don't want us to have a good relationship with Russia,
I get it, I'm right there with you.

Speaker 2 (26:10):
Then why don't we have a good.

Speaker 1 (26:11):
Relationship with the UK That stuff's happening now. The world
is changing in these Western countries are turning evil and
turning evil quickly, just like we were under Joe Biden.
Should we continue this relationship now? Speaking of Russia, Ukraine
and all these things, Trump had already talked earlier about

(26:32):
getting our hands because we spent so much money in
Ukraine getting our hands on some of these minerals.

Speaker 10 (26:37):
I will be meeting with presidents of Linskin. Fact he
may come in this week or next week to sign
the agreement, and which would be nice. I'd love to
meet him with meet at the Oval Office. So the
agreement's being worked on now. They're very close to a
final deal. It'll be a deal with rare earths and
various other things.

Speaker 2 (26:57):
I think the work can end soon within weeks.

Speaker 1 (27:04):
And he did it. We got the minerals. Happened earlier today,
a few hours ago. Of course, this is something that
everybody should celebrate. Everyone should celebrate.

Speaker 2 (27:16):
An end to this horrible, horrible.

Speaker 1 (27:18):
Butchery over there in Ukraine, not just for the lives lost,
but but the true if we're going to look at
it purely selfishly, for our treasure, it's our money, it's
your money. The American people are still struggling right now.
The inflation numbers are bad. American people who are not
making ends meet. We still have record credit card debt.

(27:38):
People have drained their savings. It is not the job
of the American taxpayer to support a non NATO country
because they got invaded by Russia.

Speaker 2 (27:47):
It is simply not.

Speaker 1 (27:49):
In no way is it your job to provide for
them when you can't afford eggs plus. Like I said,
the horrible, horrible carnage is awful, it's unspeakable carnate. Now
the problem is adjusting the thinking of not just the
American people, but American politicians. I mean, we have American

(28:10):
politicians like Tom Tillis saying things like this.

Speaker 11 (28:15):
So look, I'm a Republican. I support President Trump, and
I believe that most of his policies on national security
are right. I believe his instincts are pretty good. But
what I'm telling you, whoever believes that there is any
space for Vladimir Putin in the future of a stable globe,

(28:35):
better go to Ukraine. They better go to Europe. They
better invest the time to understand that this man is
a cancer and the greatest threat to democracy in my lifetime.
This is important to every single one of you. If
you believe that Ukraine is a country an ocean away
and not relevant to our national security, think again.

Speaker 2 (28:55):
The world is small.

Speaker 11 (28:57):
The world is watching this. Strength of our alliances are
on the line, and the future of democracy and the
world is on the line if we do anything less
than defeat Vladimir Putin.

Speaker 1 (29:11):
Defeat Vladimir Putin. They say these things all the time,
Defeat Vladimir Putin, Defeat Vladimir Putin. How Vladimir Putin took
parts of Ukraine, the parts he wanted We've spent three years.
Whether the Ukrainians have spent three years and our money.

Speaker 2 (29:28):
Trying to get him out.

Speaker 1 (29:30):
They haven't been able to get him out, So what
would Tom Tillis like us to do? That's one Two.
Putin's the greatest threat to democracy now, as I just explained,
I don't like Putin at all.

Speaker 2 (29:42):
I don't care.

Speaker 1 (29:43):
I don't like any tyrant who arrests his political opponents.
I hate Putin, I hate Zelensky is the exact same
thing canceled elections.

Speaker 2 (29:50):
I hate Joe Biden the exact same.

Speaker 1 (29:52):
Reason arrested his political opponent. I hate tyrants. But why
is Putin a threat to our democracy? Russia has an
economy that's roughly the size of Texas's economy. Their birth
rate is embarrassing. They are not threatening our democracy. You
could argue pretty easily the United States government over the

(30:14):
last four years as a far greater threat to our democracy,
even though we're not a democracy, a far greater threat
to that than anything Vladimir Putin has done. But instead
we have these nutball loser senators like Wicker talking about
having the guy executed.

Speaker 2 (30:30):
Do you think that Putin can be trusting in these negotiations.

Speaker 9 (30:33):
No, Putin is a war criminal and should be in
jail for the rest of his life if not executed.

Speaker 1 (30:42):
Freaking grief. Anyway, Let's move on. Let's talk about some
midterm election stuff. Before we do that, let me talk
to you about getting a good night's sleep. Every single night.
A good night's sleep just changes everything, changes your entire
outlook on life. Now, how can you guarantee that. I

(31:02):
know there's a bunch of stuff you can take to sleep.
I get that all kinds of stuff. Doctor will prescribe
you with something. You could walk at any pharmacy gas
station and give you something. But all that stuff, all
of it, they all have the same thing in common.
You wake up and feel like crap. Not with dreampowder
from Beam because it's natural. It's a cup of hot chocolate,
delicious hot chocolate, mine cinnamon chocolate. Drink it before bed,

(31:26):
drift off to sleep, sleep like a little bitty baby
every single night, and wake up feeling good. Shopbeam dot Com,
slash Jesse Kelly, We'll be back. I hope you don't

(31:46):
have election fatigue. I know we just had a big
one and we're all feeling pretty good right now. But
the mid terms cometh and that right soon. They are
almost here. The primaries are already gonna start gearing up,
and tradition, the party that holds the White House loses
seats during the midterm. That is the very traditional way

(32:07):
of thinking about politics in this country. It's gone that
way almost every single time. So joining me now is
somebody I don't call very many people elections experts, but
Seth Keshel most definitely is he's got a substance stack.

Speaker 2 (32:19):
That's awesome.

Speaker 1 (32:19):
Captain K's corner because he's a former Army captain in Afghanistan.
Betteran Okay, Seth, you put out a guide, way too
early guide for the twenty twenty six midterms.

Speaker 2 (32:31):
How are we looking.

Speaker 12 (32:33):
You've already said it. You know, political science tells us
that we're going to face some major headwinds. Now, that
doesn't mean that you don't play it.

Speaker 2 (32:39):
You know.

Speaker 12 (32:39):
My dad always told me that you play the games
for a reason. And three times since the New Deal
political coalitions began we're talking nineteen thirty four, the president's
party has gained seats in the House. So three out
of twenty three midterms, the president's party has gained that
happened most recently in two thousand and two, But the
average loss for the president's party in the House is

(33:00):
twenty seven seats on average. Now, there was a very
bad loss for Republicans in twenty eighteen. Biden managed to
only lose nine seats. But you know, if we lose
twenty seven seats, then the swing is going to be
fifty four. It's going to be a Democrat House majority
of two forty two to one ninety three.

Speaker 1 (33:21):
Okay, So how do we lose, Like, how do we
avoid that kind of loss?

Speaker 2 (33:26):
Because that would be horrible.

Speaker 12 (33:29):
So we've got a little bit of help. As the
end of my article starts to bring up the Democrats
know they're losing ground, especially in the Midwest. Now that
may be more pertinent to Senate races and for the
twenty twenty eight presidential race, but you've already got Gary
Peters deciding he's not going to run for reelection to
the Senate and Tina Smith in Minnesota. Peters is from Michigan,

(33:49):
but Smith and Minnesota is not running for Senate reelection either,
And both of those seats should be Democrat holds in
a normal midterm year. But all the party registration numbers
continue to accelerate in a Republican trajectory. If you remember
our talks before the election, I was using voter registration
by party to accurately peg that election, which I got
all fifty six races right. So we can buck this trend.

(34:12):
Number one by letting the enemy continue to make the mistakes,
just like Napoleon said. Number two, identifying which races are
most critical that we hold in selecting good candidates for primaries.
I use North Carolina as a good example. A lot
of people are frustrated with Tom Tillis, is usually one
of the weaker Republican senators that we have. I do
expect him to be hardcore America first the next two years,

(34:35):
but if he takes on a primary challenger, it needs
to be one first and foremost, it needs to be
one that can win the general. So the risk is
unseating somebody who's probably a good fit for a suburbanized
general electorate and replacing him with somebody who may not win,
like Mark Robinson. But really, in the Senate, there's only
two seats I'm concerned about that Republicans hold in that
North Carolina in Maine, so I don't see any way,

(34:56):
Trump's second half of his term will have less than
fifty two these.

Speaker 2 (35:02):
Okay, well, at least there's that.

Speaker 1 (35:04):
Speaking of mistakes Democrats make, I turn on the television
every single day or more accurately, social media, and I
see one Jasmine Crockett like, and.

Speaker 13 (35:15):
We know, like, this isn't me trying to throw shad.
These are just the facts when you look at who's
voting for who the less educated folk. And when I
say educated, I'm not even talking about formal education. I'm
talking about people that literally don't want to read and
enlighten themselves on facts. Those are the people that typically
vote for the Republicans. And it's one of the reasons
that we have to stop writing in thesis as Democrats,

(35:38):
right Like, we want to give you every single little
detail that we can find so that you can have
all the information. But the reality is that the average
person that is going out there and voting, they're not
paying attention to.

Speaker 1 (35:48):
That seth Am I outside of my mind to think
that she is just absolutely wonderful for us, and I
smile every time I see her on television.

Speaker 12 (35:58):
Absolutely she she belongs on a mount rushmore of elected
Democrats that really do great service for Republican candidates. Now,
Unfortunately some of them have been primaried out by Democrats
who recognize the strategic danger they posed to their own party.
But you know, just as soon as they got rid
of Corey Bush, we've got Jasmine Crockett becoming a prominent
name on the left. So she'll probably continue to return

(36:21):
to Congress as long as her district remains drawn as
it is, but she will also continue to drive suburbanites
back to the Republican Party. She'll probably further piss off
minority males who went to the Republican candidate Trump in
bigger numbers than they've gone probably since nineteen seventy two
for Richard Nixon. So I'm with you on that that
we have a lot of people like that. We need

(36:41):
to continue to give a microphone.

Speaker 1 (36:47):
Let's rewind a little bit, Seth, because there's something I
am curious about, and I know many people are. How
did we win this amazing election in November? Donald Trump
even won the popular vote. It really felt like a
big sweep. Yet our majority in the House is not
very big. Those two things don't add up for a
lot of people.

Speaker 2 (37:04):
Can you break that down for.

Speaker 12 (37:06):
Us, absolutely no Number one. We have the organic reasons
why that would be so. Now, Donald Trump is one
of the most famous people on the planet since the
time of Christ. Now that helps him probably get several million,
five or ten million votes more than a standard Republican
would have gotten. And a lot of times when minorities
or people that don't belong to a party start voting

(37:27):
for a new party, that transition doesn't follow for the
whole ticket. It might go at the top of the ticket.
So a lot of the people that became nineties and
two thousands of Republicans went over for Reagan, but it
took them a while to buy the whole ticket. So
we have some of that going on, and that could
explain some of the down ballot issues with states like
New Jersey or New York, for example. But then we
also have the issues with our election laws now automatic

(37:50):
voter registration, expanding vote by mail to universal, and authorizing
ballot harvesting with an extended early vote period. Those things
go hand in hand with guaranteeing that a state will
appear in blue state status. What do I mean by that, Well,
you have New Hampshire is the only state that Harris
one that doesn't automatically registered voters. So Trump won non
automatic voter registration states two hundred and forty eight electoral

(38:13):
votes to five. So once you start corrupting the voter
rules and dishing out mail in ballots, you have opportunity
to go all the way down ballot. I think three
or four Senate seats are very questionable Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada,
and possibly even Arizona. And then you look at the
US House, Well, we have courts that are getting involved
in redistricting and they're going after Republican states supposedly on

(38:34):
racial grounds. Now we lost a seat in Alabama and
another one in Louisiana. They were both solid Republican held
congress congressional seats and those flipped. And then, of course
the opposite happens, where nobody breaks up the jerry manders
and the blue states. And then we have the blue
state redraws that are different from the past decade when
Trump went into office with more than two hundred and
forty House seats, so our ceiling is a lot lower

(38:57):
than that. And then you combine the states that have
backless election laws. Some of the races like main second
congressional district really stand out to me, and of course
the seats in California that flipped in December. Honestly, any
candidate claiming a seat in December should really be hesitant
to celebrate that publicly. It was really an embarrassing thing,
and any Republican to concede a race like that has
no business even running for office.

Speaker 1 (39:21):
Seth talk to me about Trump's plan or hope the
plan we hope he has for some new arrivals Africans.

Speaker 12 (39:29):
So we have the Africaners, the South Africans. Now not
all white South Africans are Africaners, so we're talking about
those primarily of Dutch but also French and German ancestry,
who historically have controlled and owned the farmlands. They are
now coming under the heavy fist of the South African government,
which has passed laws that would allow the government to
confiscate their farm lands without compensation. So you have the

(39:51):
Trump administration rolling out ideas to bring them in under
refugee status. Now I commented to your producer that this
is right up your outl based on the stuff that
you tweet about. Because the Democrats have been big on
using immigration as a political weapon, and you can look
at Springfield, Ohio, which really backfire for them there. But
in Minnesota, they've guaranteed that within a couple of decades

(40:12):
that the Somalian population that they've imported into Minneapolis will
continue to produce Democrat dividends and probably keep that in
the blue column long term. So this population, given that
they're mostly Dutch, you can look at Western Michigan as
a good example. You're probably looking at least at three
to two Republican electorate. So if you were to bring
in two and a half million adult Africaners, which there's

(40:34):
not many more than that to begin with, and turn
some of those into voters, maybe sixty percent of the voters,
you could lock down certain states depending on where they
go to fill in these depopulated industrial areas in northern Pennsylvania,
Western Michigan, or in Wisconsin. So I think that that's
an example just like Cubans, Venezuelan's and Vietnamese voters who
are coming to America to flee from some sort of

(40:57):
persecution or tyranny of people that we sh be looking
to integrate. If we are indeed looking at immigration merit.

Speaker 1 (41:06):
Who's the twenty who's the twenty twenty eight guy going
to be excuse me, you think it's going to be JD.

Speaker 12 (41:12):
I think it's going to be Vance. You know a
lot of people were on the fence about JD. Vance.
I pulled my audience back in the summer and about
forty percent really liked him, and some people didn't like him,
and other people were sort of on the fence. But
I think that the answer is You've heard people all
the time when they want to debate politics, they'll say, well,
I didn't vote for your guy, but I hope I
vote for him to be re elected. Well, what they're
saying is they hope that the next four years for

(41:33):
America are good years. So I would say that if
if anybody other than JD. Vance were the nominee in
twenty twenty eight, then that would suggest that these four
years that Trump as president did not go as plan
and have gone completely off kilter to where somebody else
even has an opening to run for president. There is
the belief that vice presidents are not successful running immediately

(41:55):
for president, but honestly, with the exception of Harris, most
of those vice presidential candidates have run a pretty solid race.
Hubert Humphrey got blown up in nineteen sixty eight, but
it was mostly because Johnson was so unpopular he knew
he couldn't stand for reelection. But I think that Vance,
especially given that he'll only be four years into a
Republican cycle of the presidency, has a very good chance.

(42:18):
And my floor for JD. Vance is two hundred and
sixty two electoral votes. I think he's got all of
Trump's twenty twenty states. I think he's got Georgia, and
I think he's got Arizona with the suburban Republican coalitions,
which means that he's only he's already on the putting green.
As far as I'm concerned for twenty twenty eight for
being elected, Pennsylvania could be tough with this Josh Shapiro
who's the opponent, or Michigan maybe tough with it. Gretchen Whitmer,

(42:40):
and I am very confident Gretchen Whitmer is going to
be in the field in twenty twenty eight, because she
did not express any interest in running for Gary Peters
soon to be opened Senate seat in twenty twenty six,
which would be a layup for her.

Speaker 1 (42:54):
Seth thank you man. I appreciate it. All right, lighten
the mood next. All right, it is time to lighten
the mood. And you know, we talked a little bit

(43:14):
earlier about these people not figuring things out. How they're religious,
sell it's what might the midterm elections be.

Speaker 2 (43:21):
Like, I don't know.

Speaker 1 (43:23):
I'm not quite so sure these people get it.

Speaker 14 (43:27):
We can't let them continue their lives and their distractions.
We can't let them deport the millions of families across
this country who have been doing the work that keeps
our economy going every day. We can't let them scapegoat
and criminalize immigrants who contribute. Who are our neighbors, our friends,
our church goers, our community around us that we deeply love.

(43:52):
Immigrants are us. Immigrants are us, and we all deserve
respect and dignity. If you look at the food that's
on your table, think about who picked it. If you
look at your homes, think about who built them.

Speaker 2 (44:06):
If you look at.

Speaker 14 (44:07):
Your vulnerable elders and your kids, think about who's taking
care of them.

Speaker 2 (44:13):
They just can't help themselves. Don't you want to keep
your slaves. Let's see them all
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