The Rational Nationalist

Passing a law is easy. The costs begin when government tries to enforce it.

In this episode, Lee Ellis asks a more demanding question than whether a policy sounds good: Will it improve society enough to justify the police, courts, penalties, opportunity costs, and unintended consequences required to make it work?

From the difference between law and morality to the limits of coercion, the episode argues that legislation should be tr...

Francesca Hong entered Wisconsin’s Democratic gubernatorial primary as the overwhelming prediction-market favorite. The final Marquette poll showed her far ahead of David Crowley. Crowley nevertheless returned to the race, consolidated institutional support, and won by roughly four-tenths of a percentage point.

What changed?

This episode introduces the idea of political activation energy: the combination of urgency and coordi...

Democratic order depends on more than holding elections. Losers must accept legitimate defeat; winners must accept that power is temporary and preserve the mechanisms by which they can later be removed.

In this episode, Lee Ellis examines the two-sided bargain behind democracy: the line between lawful challenge and revolutionary rejection, the ways victorious coalitions can rewrite the rules or insulate power from voters, and what ...

Citizens aren’t customers, and a nation cannot survive as merely a service provider. Citizenship grants rights and protections, but it also imposes obligations to preserve the common good.

In this episode, Lee Ellis begins with a thought experiment about building society from scratch, examines the difference between positive and negative rights, and turns to the Roman Republic to consider what happens when civic duty gives wa...

Why do ordinary voters empower bad leaders—and why do political movements so often elevate extremists?

In this episode of The Rational Nationalist, Lee Ellis uses optimal-arousal theory to explain the paradox of political passion: emotion drives people to act, but too much passion clouds judgment, rewards certainty over competence, and helps the personalities most likely to ab...

Leadership requires delegation. But every time authority is passed from elected leaders to unelected officials, democratic accountability becomes weaker.

In this episode of The Rational Nationalist, Lee Ellis examines the unavoidable tradeoff between effective government and public control—and explains how bureaucracies can become increasingly insulated from the voters they are meant...

When someone refuses to play by the rules, should you keep following them—or fight fire with fire?

Constitutional societies depend on more than written laws. They depend on reciprocity, restraint, and a shared expectation that today's winner won't permanently rewrite the rules in their own favor.

In this episode, Lee Ellis examines why constitutional systems work, what happens when...

Why do ordinary people become devoted members of increasingly extreme organizations?

This episode explores the psychology of gradual commitment—from harmless slogans and small acts of participation to identity, groupthink, and institutional influence. Using a fictional anti-bullying movement as a case study, we examine how individuals and organizations become radicalized, why these p...

Most people believe they follow the evidence wherever it leads.

In reality, we often do the opposite.

When confronted with information that challenges our existing beliefs, we rarely evaluate it objectively. Instead, we rationalize it, reinterpret it, or dismiss it altogether in order to preserve our preferred theories, narratives, and worldviews.

In this episode of The Rational Nationalist, Lee Ellis examines why people cling to b...

In this episode of The Rational Nationalist, Lee Ellis examines how individuals and societies create "windmills" to fight. Drawing on the story of Don Quixote, he explores the psychological and social forces that cause threats to be exaggerated, narratives to spiral, and well-intentioned responses to become overreactions. From evolutionary instincts and strategic calculations to ego needs and institutional incentives, this episode ...

In this episode of The Rational Nationalist, Lee Ellis examines how personal incentives influence decision-making inside institutions.

Although individuals are expected to act in the best interests of the organizations they serve, competing pressures—including career advancement, ideology, comfort, relationships, and ego—often shape decisions in ways that diverge from an institution's stated purpose.

Topics include:

• F...

In this episode of The Rational Nationalist, Lee Ellis examines why governments often appear less efficient than other organizations and explores whether that outcome is inevitable.

Using socialism, bureaucracy, and institutional incentives as a case study, the episode examines how organizations develop interests of their own, how bureaucratic structures expand over time, and why the goals of institutions, offices, and individuals ...

In this episode of The Rational Nationalist, Lee Ellis examines forecasting, probability, and the challenges of political prediction through the lens of game theory, chaos theory, and mass psychology.

Using the 2028 election as a case study, the episode explores deterministic vs. probabilistic thinking, why simple models often outperform complex ones, the psychology of certainty, and how incentives shape po...

In this episode of The Rational Nationalist, Lee Ellis examines the internal divisions within the modern political Right, distinguishing between the Free Right and the Authoritarian Right.

Building on previous discussions of the Marxist Left and the Institutional Center, this episode explores nationalism, constitutionalism, political coalitions, and the growing tension between individual liberty and centralized power in modern poli...