The Spillover

The financing behind the AI boom has grown so large that treasury bond yields are approaching levels not seen since the leadup to the 2008 financial crisis. But is the risk to the financial market overblown? This week, Rebecca Patterson and Sebastian Mallaby are joined by Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo, to discuss the threat AI debt poses to the U.S. bond market.

Hosts: 

Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fell...

Artificial intelligence has become the biggest variable in the U.S. economy, but is the country really positioned to win the global race for economic dominance in AI? This week, Rebecca Patterson and Sebastian Mallaby draw on Patterson's new chapter for the book Geopolitics of AI to guess at an eventual winner. The pair weighs the inputs of talent, capital, energy, and public support, and question popular assumptions about inevitab...

Five months of war in Iran have completely reshaped energy markets. This week, the Baker Institute’s Kristian Coates Ulrichsen joins Rebecca Patterson and Sebastian Mallaby to examine how conflict in the Strait of Hormuz exposed the fragility of the world's maritime chokepoints, and revealed China as the quiet winner of the crisis.

Hosts:

Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Counci...

In this episode of The Spillover, Rebecca Patterson and Sebastian Mallaby swap summer reading recommendations, including fiction and nonfiction picks covering American thinkers’ predictions for the twentieth century, an Irish murder mystery, and a Stanford student’s exposé on Silicon Valley venture capital and start-up culture.

Hosts:

Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Counc...

In this episode of The Spillover, host Sebastian Mallaby sits down with Jordan Schneider, founder and editor-in-chief of the ChinaTalk podcast and newsletter, to discuss AI progress and security, as well as the U.S.-China AI rivalry.

Hosts:

Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) 

Guest:

Jordan Schneider, Founder and Editor in Chief, ChinaTalk

Mention...

In this episode, The Spillover’s Sebastian Mallaby is hosted by Dan Kurtz-Phelan, editor of Foreign Affairs, to discuss the “AI trilemma”—the challenge U.S. policymakers face in encouraging enough innovation to stay ahead of China while addressing public anxiety about AI. Drawing on Mallaby’s recent Foreign Affairs essay and his new book, The Infinity Machine, this episode explores the stakes of the AI...

Rebecca Patterson and Sebastian Mallaby are joined by Rahm Emanuel, who served as President Bill Clinton’s political strategist, President Barack Obama’s first White House chief of staff, and President Joe Biden’s U.S. ambassador to Japan. The trio discuss Emanuel’s recent speech in Israel, the state of the U.S. Democratic Party, and the outlook for the upcoming midterm elections.

Hosts:

Rebecca Patterson,...

On this episode of The Spillover, Rebecca Patterson and Sebastian Mallaby, joined by CFR expert Jonathan Hillman, examine the U.S. government's rapidly growing portfolio of equity stakes in private companies, including a potential stake in OpenAI.

Hosts:

Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations ...

Cohosts Rebecca Patterson and Sebastian Mallaby stage a friendly debate over two so-called dollar alternatives—gold and bitcoin—weighing whether either has truly earned its reputation as a store of value. Patterson defends gold’s centuries of institutional credibility and diversification track record, while Mallaby makes the bull case for bitcoin’s finite supply and upside potential.

Hosts:

Rebecca Patters...

America’s 250th birthday is the talk of the nation. But the more important story might be what the milestone reveals about the fragile bargain between democracy and markets, and whether the republic can survive its own cultural divisions.

Host:

Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

Guest:

Martin Wolf, Chief Economics Commentator, Financial Times

M...

In this episode of The Spillover, host Rebecca Patterson and former Federal Reserve Vice Chair Roger W. Ferguson Jr. reflect on the legacy of recently deceased former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan, and examine what may lie ahead for the Fed under its new chair Kevin Warsh.

Hosts:

Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

Guest:

Roger W. Ferguson Jr., Steven A. Tananbaum Distinguished Fellow for Internation...

In this episode of The Spillover, host Sebastian Mallaby and CFR President Michael Froman speak with former U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo and World Bank President Ajay Banga about the global jobs challenge facing millions of young people in emerging markets. 

Hosts:

Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

Michael Froman, CFR President

Guests:

The scale of the SpaceX IPO is dominating financial headlines, but the more important story might be what the sale reveals about the structure of modern capital markets, corporate governance, and the blurry line between public and private investing. This episode unpacks what the numbers actually show, why much of the popular narrative is overblown, and what investors should actually be paying attention to.

Hosts:

Sebastian Mallab...

This episode unpacks why the trade and investment imbalances between the United States and China have grown to record levels despite years of pressure to correct them, and how the imbalanced system looks increasingly likely to collapse under its own weight.

Hosts:

Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign R...

As governments around the world ramp up defense spending, a new era of rearmament is reshaping economies, markets, inflation, and politics. This episode examines Japan’s dramatic shift away from its postwar pacifist identity amid rising tensions with China, ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, and growing uncertainty around the global security role of the U.S.

Hosts:

Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for Int...

AI and satellite imagery are quickly converging to create “planetary intelligence,” a new generation of systems capable of capturing and analyzing images of Earth in real time. This episode explores how the AI infrastructure race could move into orbit, with space-based data centers, falling launch costs, and “large Earth models” potentially transforming the global economy, geopolitics, and the future of arti...

President Donald Trump is set to meet with Xi Jinping in Beijing for a high-stakes summit shaped by Iran war tensions, trade disputes, critical mineral flows, semiconductor controls, and an intensifying AI race. This episode breaks down the growing U.S.-China rivalry, the risks facing global markets and supply chains, and whether the world is entering a new era of economic fragmentation and technological competition.

Hosts:

Rebec...

Prediction markets have grown into a multibillion-dollar industry. This episode asks whether they are powerful forecasting tools or gambling platforms in disguise—and what their rise means for how risk and information are priced.

Hosts:

Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

Guest:

This episode unpacks the concept of a K-shaped economy, examines how AI, war, and climate shocks may be widening inequality within and between countries, and explains why the divide is so hard to measure. It also explores competing responses to the affordability crisis—from Trump’s to Mamdani’s—and asks if a more centrist path could offer better solutions.

Hosts:

Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council o...