Global Research Unlocked

Several positives for US defense but FY26 a tough comp

Defense spending growth in the US and Europe is accelerating. The shift is particularly acute in Europe, where NATO allies had been spending between 1.5% to 2% of GDP on defense equipment but agreed in late June to spend 3.5% by 2035 (5% including other national security spend). Stocks of the European defense c...

Limited near-term catalysts for market upside

The US Equity Strategy team recently raised its S&P 500 target but the target implies little to no upside between now and year-end as the team sees few positive catalysts over the next several quarters. Fiscal impulse from the One Big Beautiful Bill will be positive but lower than originally expected. The US Economics team expects the new fiscal plan to add between 0.3% and 0.4% to ...

Pipelines boom, esp. in the previously quiet Northeast

There's been a marked increase in the number of natural gas pipelines expected to be in service in the next several years. President Trump's policies explain some of this. But the commercial side is also enabling the boom. Jean Ann Salisbury addresses the various drivers and how these new pipelines could mean several hundred basis points of additional growth for some midstream...

Thorium can power long-term growth nuclear generation

Nuclear energy has received a lot of investor focus, especially following the President's recent executive orders and numerous agreements to supply nuclear power to data centers. But while adding capacity to existing plants isn't a major challenge, adding new US plants is more difficult. Jess Gehin from the Idaho National Lab and BofA Global Research's US Utility analyst Ross Fo...

Stablecoins offer opportunities and pose risks

Potential for increased adoption of stablecoins and implications for the banking sector has become a hot topic among investors given the push among policymakers. Eventually, consumers might be able to buy dollar-linked stablecoins and potentially earn interest on these assets, meaning more competition for bank deposits. There are regulatory hurdles that first need to be cleared but Con...

Long end of Tsy curve faces supply/demand imbalance

As tariff fears have moved to the background, a different economic concern has moved to the foreground-growing fiscal deficits and the impact on interest rates. Public debt-to-GDP stood at 98% last year and is set to rise further. We discuss why deficits have captured the market's attention today and whether growth aspects of the budget plan could be offset by the higher interest ...

Smart glasses may weigh on phone sales, lift Internet use

Smart glasses could be the next big opportunity in personal technology. Leading tech companies are focused on the form factor and functionality like augmented reality and 4K video may follow today's applications, which include AI assistants, music playback, phone calls and hands-free texting. Ultimately, these devices could stretch out the smart phone replacement cycle, like...

USD overweight exposure is now normalizing

Even as equities have rallied substantially from April lows, recovery in the dollar index, or DXY, has underwhelmed and the currency sits near the lowest level it's been in three years. Alex Cohen believes that while there are cyclical reasons for the dollar weakness, there's also been a bigger structural rethink on the currency by investors from the push toward de-globalization and from q...

Looming tariffs lead to renewed focus on transfer pricing

Multinational companies have used transfer pricing as a way to reduce tax bills. Transferring a product from a lower tax jurisdiction allows profits to be taxed at the lower corporate rate, so a higher price can mean greater tax savings. But tariffs would be based on the higher price, meaning that some of the same companies using this practice to lower tax bills will also fa...

Budget conscious consumers indulge in healthier foods

There's been a shift in snacking towards healthier options and away from some of the convenience store classics. A stretched consumer seeking value for their dollar seems to be allocating spend to cleaner alternatives. These often contain more protein and less of what's perceived as harmful. Rising GLP-1 (glucagon-like peptide-1) usage may be a minor contributor to these shifts ...

Euro defense spend benefits US contractors near-term

European plans to spend more on defense as a percentage of GDP were hatched in the immediate aftermath of the Ukraine invasion. More recently, the German Parliament agreed to reforms that allow for even more spending on defense. But for a number of reasons, Europe would like to keep more of this spending within the Euro Area. Ron Eps...