Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:03):
Good morning, and welcome to the Capital District's Money and
Investment Program. You're listening to the Sagan Financial Report, Aaron.
This is Don his Fagan. Aaron is off today, he's
traveling on business. He'll be in tomorrow. Obviously, market meltdown
on Thursday and Friday. We'll talk a lot about that,
for sure, probably spend the whole show talking about that.
(00:24):
You know, some of the things I'll talk about. I'll
talk about giving my you know, forty plus years of
experience in this business and what I see, and you know,
the fact that you know, people do look to us
to as an expert in this field. And also we've
been in business thirty five years. We've seen a lot
of different market environments, financial environments, economic environments, markets, bear markets,
(00:51):
bull markets, quick ones like the pandemic, longer ones that
lasted from two thousand to twenty ten. And something I'm
going to talk about as someone who's in the formed
on political or excuse me, a financial matters, but certainly
not an expert on tariffs. You know, I'm not an
(01:13):
expert on geopolitical issues. But I'm just going to try
to make sense of it for you and kind of
frame our outlook for the market based upon that we're
all working with uncertain times. It was funny of the
pandemic was something we hadn't seen in one hundred years,
and this type of type of tariff structure we haven't
(01:34):
seen in since nineteen thirty or so. And I'm not
here to say it's great or it's poor, it's this
or that. You know, I will the market is the
ultimate arbiter of financial things, and as of now, they
say the market said it was a bad move or
really bad move. We'll also take a look at some
(01:58):
comments from others. I don't want to pick sides. Not
picking sides, I'm just saying that what I believe is
three percussions from this and the repercussions from the last
you know, two or three months from the Trump administration.
I'm hoping that you know, it turns around a little bit.
(02:18):
So I'm doing BTE calls knowing that some of you
may know more than others. I'm not interested in being
blasted because I maybe pure a little left or right
on an issue. I'm just trying to do my best.
Given to ten percent correction quote unquote correction that we
saw on Thursday and Friday as a result of the
(02:39):
implementation of the tariff policy on Wednesday evening, and also
how those numbers were calculated. T have about maybe maybe
I'll take ten minutes or so fifteen minutes. I don't know,
but Jack, if we get a call, you'll feel free
to cut in. Don't want this to be a monologue.
Like I said, Aaron is traveling today, so it will
be a minor unless we get called. So let's let's
(03:02):
go for it and see what happened. So we send
out a snapshot too. It's called a weekly snapshot. It
sent out every Sunday morning. Sam Sam Sam Dow does
it or Aaron Ryan believe it went out, although I
can't be sure because I've been working all morning and
haven't had a real chance to look at it. But
it goes out every every Sunday morning, as I mentioned.
(03:24):
And then Thursday Wednesday usually this week of every week,
we send out what's called the chart Talk, and it
describes what's going on in the market a little bit.
We send that out Thursday this past week, because you know,
we're kind of looking at okay, if the step of
the snapshot did go on when I'm just looking out
my notes or my email went out at about eight
(03:46):
o'clock this morn So if you want to copy, email
me at Daganassociates dot com or Dennis with two ends
dot fig and F A G A and at Dagana
Associates dot com. We'll get that right out to you.
You know that said we also, so we send something
up Thursday describing, you know, the market's a bit. We
send something off Friday again from an email that we
(04:07):
received from from a client. Maybe talk a little bit
about that today and then and then and then go
from there. So so that's where you have it. Let
me see here. So that's how we're going to handle
it today. Like I said, if you have any questions
portfolio questions and so that feel give us some feel
free to give us called. But at the snapschat that
went out today, this is how I wrote it. Okay,
(04:28):
after falling five percent in each of the trading of
the trading days, find the imposition of the broad terraffs
by the Trump administration on Wednesday evening, and I would
say after the market close, the a political financial markets. Look,
the markets are not political. They want to make money.
The a political and they don't care who's in charge.
They want the markets to go up. The a political
(04:49):
financial markets have spoken and in doing so, had theysued
a verdict on the wisdom of such an economic policy.
Now before pointing to the robust jobs report on Friday,
and it was job support was great on Friday. I
think Americans labor market, you know, added two hundred twenty
eight thousand jobs during March. The consensus was for one
hundred and thirty. Payroll numbers for the prior too much
(05:11):
were revised downward a little bit. The private sector companies
added two hundred nine thousand, the public sector added nineteen thousand,
despite the fact that there was a four thousand employee dropping.
The federal government unemployment rate at four point two percent.
Good numbers right across the board. Average houral earnings of
nine cents to thirty six bucks an hour of three
(05:32):
point eight four percent from one year ago. Weekly earnings
up three and change percent from a year ago. Manufacturing
week picked up a little bit, the work week held
steady at thirty four hours thirty four and a half
hours or so. So the numbers, we can't really sit
back and say, oh, wow, these weren't good numbers. I
will say that that for those that say, look at
(05:54):
the jobs report, keep in mind that all of the
data collected for the Jobs report was done prior to
the imposition of the tariffs at the close of business
on Wednesday. Second paragraph obviously as American, not to mention
the industry within which we work. I work, you know,
as for the benefit you know, you know, we have
(06:15):
a business. You know, it's a viable business. You know,
we certainly want our clients to benefit from it. All
so mutually benefit, beneficial relationship. We want the market to
go up. We want President Trump to do well. There's
no doubt about that. You know. It's good for us,
it's good for our families, it's great for our clients,
it's great for our business. We were rooting for the
(06:36):
Trump administration to do well. In fact, Scots rallied sharply
shortly after President Trump was elected and right up until
the inauguration day on January twentieth, and the belief that
the tight regulatory environment that existed during the Biden administration
with loosen tariffs, if applied, would be done sparingly and
only after exercising due diligence, and our border would become
(06:58):
more secure. I think that's what that's an inflation would
go down. I didn't put that in there. Evidence supporting
this opinion is that three point seven percent rise in
the SMP from election day to an aug duration day,
and this in six point four to six percent for
the Nasdack composite post in all directions, the whole posting
auguration is a whole different story. The financial markets have
(07:20):
issued a different verdict as other than securing our border,
that leaves a lot to be desired. In fact, the
s and P five hundred NAS that composite have formed
fifteen point three eight percent and twenty point five nine percent, respectively,
with more than half of that coming on Thursday and Friday.
So again, a political financial market. I'm gonna get a
drink of water. Excuse me, we even do it the
(07:44):
whole time in a monologue. I don't mind. I got
a lot to say, and I want food for thought.
Speaker 2 (07:49):
You know.
Speaker 1 (07:49):
I like dialogue with friends and family and this and that.
I like learning. I like I'm an actually a history
in English major. I've been to tons of Civil War battlefields.
I've been the France. The battlefield's over there. My great
uncle's buried over there from Wan. I have a great
affinity for people who have served our country and they
also have you know, I also try to tie history
(08:12):
and look back at historical precedents to see what's going on.
So you know, I'm just interested in this, So I
don't mind talking for it now, but feel free to
give me a call again at one eight hundred talk
WGY at one hundred and eight two five, five, nine four,
and if I think, peach your interests as of thus far.
So if you're writing this early Sunday morning, we expect
the market's open lower tomorrow unless President Trump released is
(08:33):
something that sounds conciliatory in nature. However, if he continues
on this path, we do expect at some point in
time over the next one or two months for both
Houses of Congress to try to reclaim its ability to
land collect taxes, duties in posts and exercises, as outlined
with an Article one, section eight of the US Constitution,
powers which acceeded to the president partially in nineteen thirty four,
(08:56):
within the Reciprocal Trade Agreement Act, the Trade Expansion Act
of nineteen sixty two, the Trade Act of nineteen seventy four,
and the International Emergency Powers Act of nineteen seventy seven.
Unless one of these events the curb, either the more
conciliatory tones from the President or the Congress stepping in
to reclaim its ability to be the ones to collect
(09:16):
the tariffs or to lemby tariffs, the financial markets will
can take it continue to struggle to maintain these levels.
It just makes sense and market clothes that it's low
on Friday, gintures open at six o'clock. Yes, Sex, we
have Mike from delmar on Hold, Okay, put them on.
(09:37):
Good morning to Mike.
Speaker 3 (09:38):
You're on the air, Dennis, thanks for taking my call.
You make a lot of good points. The only point
I want to make is that in seven way, Wall
Street brought this country to the brink of financial ruin.
So for these guys, all they care about is their bonuses.
I worked in that industry and I saw what they did,
(10:00):
and nobody went to jail over it. So for them
to harp on Trump, he's trying to bring back jobs
in middle class So let's give it a chance. But
if you look back, how many millions of people lost
jobs and O seven oh eight, So Mike and grandfather
lost his job when they moved a factory to Mexico.
(10:22):
So let's please, let's stop the nonsense and give Trump
a chance.
Speaker 1 (10:26):
But let me ask you a question about that, though, Mike,
it is a question. I mean, I hope you listen
long enough to know you know, not a pontificator or abbloviator.
You know, I wonder like how I mean. And I'm
not saying as I'm saying if we were having a
beer together, Okay, you know how long of a chance
before you find out it's the right course of action?
That I often say too, And I will let you
(10:49):
respond as long as you like. I think that we
needed a change of diet. We didn't need the heart paddle.
That's that's that's the concern. And I agree with you
Wall Street. Look, people say to me, hey, you know
so and so. Do you know so and so works
in this industry? Now we sit up on who's extreet
and we work so No, I agree with you one
hundred percent, But I you know, I think if if
(11:09):
we're going in the wrong direction, you know, if it
if it's if it's if it's drastically wrong, it's much
different than being a little bit wrong. And if you
stays okay with the Wall Street and oh seven Elite.
That was drastically wrong, and look what it will. But
if this is drastically wrong, do we want to go
through that again? And I'm asking you that question. I'm
not saying I know the answer. So I would ask you.
Speaker 3 (11:30):
That you can't have a plan on Monday and then
on Wednesday say you know what, I'm not sure you
have to I'm not this isn't gonna work. Let's go
back to Monday's plan. You have to give it six months.
Already already countries are calling him to negotiate. And I agree.
There's never been probably free trade in the world. Even
(11:51):
when we started the country, we lived on terrorists, right,
that was where we got our revenues, terrorists and fees
and stuff. So so let's let's give it a chance.
And the world is very complex. I realized when they
talk about shipping parts and the manufacturing. But Dennis, you're
you know your study of history. We were rolling off
(12:13):
the seventeens and twenties and the bombers an hour on
the Ford plant. I don't think we could do that today.
So if we ever had a national emergency and China
wants to take Taiwan, what's next. I'm just thinking I
won't be around what's next? Honolulu, Hawaii? Then the way.
So they want to take over the world. So you
(12:35):
can't produce in your own country, you're subject to the
whims of these other nations that want to do you harm.
So I'm taking that view and also to jobs. Look
in this area. How many factories close here? From the
lawn what is the lawnmower company? You know, the one
(12:56):
that was in Lansingburg.
Speaker 1 (12:59):
Mean people.
Speaker 3 (13:02):
Garden way from ge to waterflee all the all the
and I'm not saying right, industries changed, things change and
stuff like that. But for my point is for Wall
Street to throw it at Trump after they brought the
world to its knees and that one and it was fraud.
It was from the rating agencies. It was the Fanny
(13:23):
Maze of the world. It was all the Wall Street companies.
People carry the average joe carrying out their boxes, but
all the big guys kept all their millions of dollars.
So that's my only point. I take it this.
Speaker 1 (13:35):
Okay, let me ask you this. And it's kind of
why preface did like I think Wall Street likes Trump.
It's not like they're anti Trump. I mean I think
they were anti discs. And I think that's what we've
got to do too. We've got to separate, even talking
politically amongst friends in the lake, You've got to separate
our political leanings with with with some of the reality
on both sides. Okay. And I'm saying, you know, Wall
(13:57):
Street like Trump, the market was up, the market was
doing well. I think they're decidedly negative on tariffs, and
I think that's my issue. And and Wall Street has it,
you know, they have they turn the screws like that.
And I don't know how much I mean, how much
time do you give before it does turn into an
oh seven or early situation?
Speaker 3 (14:17):
And that's what that situation built up over a number
of years, right a decade free money, the banks, they
didn't nobody's checking, no income grant. That movie, What's the
What's the movie which with Steve Correll there about the
girl which.
Speaker 1 (14:35):
Is a stripper.
Speaker 3 (14:35):
She's got a couple of yeah in the market when
you go and he goes up and she's got like
three or four condos and she didn't even know anything
about the market. So all I'm saying is you got
to give it more than two days or a week.
And why.
Speaker 1 (14:52):
Do you do you measure that? How do you measure that? Like,
how would you measure time?
Speaker 3 (14:58):
I would give it at least six months. Let's see
if China's the big dog, right?
Speaker 1 (15:03):
You know what that is?
Speaker 3 (15:04):
You're a student student of history. We've been we've been
funding the world, taking care of the world since World
War Two? Right, So we really exported our jobs all
over the world, especially to China, Vietnam, to Asia for
cheap goods and brought up their brought out their economy
at the plight of the middle class. In my opinion,
(15:24):
this is how I rehistory. And I'm not saying it's
right or wrong. It is what it is that you
got to give Trump six months. Why can't we sell
cars in Europe? Why can't we sell our products to Canada?
Why are they putting terrorists on our goods? If they
want free trade, I agree with reciprocal no terrorists. If
you want ten percent, we'll get ten percent. What's I
don't understand what's wrong with that concept?
Speaker 1 (15:46):
Well, I think it was applied. I think the concept
was applied with a broad brush. I mean, and it
wasn't on a trade weighted basis. I also think that
how President Trump arrived at the numbers was suspect, you know,
taking you know, the trade surplus are deficits, dividing it
into the the imports and coming up with a percentage
(16:07):
rather than taking somewhat of a trade weighted basis. You know,
I agree with you that there's there's there's doors that
should be open to the US, for sure, but I
also think it should be done in a especially with
our allies, in a more.
Speaker 2 (16:21):
Uh.
Speaker 1 (16:21):
I guess behind the behind closed doors fashion. You may
say that's Trump and this and that, you know that
that's that's up to you, but I think, you know,
I remember.
Speaker 3 (16:29):
Trump's I'm sorry, I remember Trump supporter. But the more
I see what he's doing and just whether it's NATO,
they don't pay their fair share. We have basis fool
around the world. Where what do you think in Germany,
all those bases, all the all the guys, when they're
spending money and stuff like that, when it's worked for
those local economies and stuff like that. In Japan and
(16:50):
Korea not only protection but also to the to their
economies and stuff like that, I think it's.
Speaker 1 (16:56):
I think, however, the United States has benefited a lot
and goal global trade as well. I think that. I
think the car we had certainly lots of lots of
things we're manufacturing that you know, we're not gonna where
labor is a large component of the total clust of manufacturing.
We're just not going to compete. We're not going to
compete for socks and things like that. You know, we're better.
(17:18):
We have the tendency to take our best performing industries
push them to the bottom. Like what do you think
about Apple? Your iPhone's gonna be four grand versus one
thousand bucks, and we're just not gonna be able to
take those components and manufacture them here in a coust
effect would matter.
Speaker 3 (17:34):
Dennis, what's the gross profit on an Apple phone? Why
are they making very trying with slave but why are
they making in commedist trying to with slave labor?
Speaker 1 (17:42):
That?
Speaker 3 (17:42):
Well, I can't, I can't. I can't get over I
can't get over that. So Apple, to me, it's a
great product. Why can't it be made in the US. Why, well,
we just why can't it be made? You're paying eighteen
hundred dollars or two thousand dollars for a phone now,
so it's got to be fifteen high ndred dollars profit.
I don't know what the gross profit is, but I
(18:02):
know it's a hell of a lot more. And they're
using slave labor, so I I I got to you know,
Apple is a great company, but they're also they're they're using,
they're using and why aren't they paying those you know,
workers aren't made. I just don't think workers make a
fair wage when you have slave labor, like in China
or Mexico or wherever.
Speaker 1 (18:23):
I just it's I think you know what bringing back home. See,
you won't see that. You won't you won't see manufacturing
in the United States. Either way. You'll either see Apple
pay the tariffs. And you're right, You're right, Mike. It
may may limit their profits and cut into their profits,
and Apple stock may be cut in half. I just
think a more a more gradual approach to this would
(18:45):
have been, uh, would have been appropriate. But I'll let
you go. It's great to talk to you, okay, Dennis,
take care of my bye bye, all right. That's w
I one hundred eight two five five nine four nine.
And there's no there's no perfect way. You know, the
United States certainly has you know, twenty five twenty eight
percent of GDP. You know, one of the things that
(19:06):
I wanted to say, and i'll I have in a
bullet here. It wasn't part of my opening monologue, so
to speak, if you want to call that, And it
was like, we all know that there are a lot
of problems. We all know that the middle class has
been carved out. However, I believe that this was not
the correct way to fix this. In addition to it,
and pardon mes that, okay, give me about a minute, right,
(19:29):
in addition to in addition to intelligently prolling the public
workforce and curbing public spending, this is the way I
would fix it, you know, intelligently prone the public workforce,
curb public spending, change at tax structure, close the step
of a basis, close the carried interest loophole, raise the
social security threshold, curtail lobbying firm limits, and i'll you know,
(19:49):
and then regulate R and DS as it pertains medicating, Like,
let's put Paul on the our good Morning player on me.
Speaker 2 (19:56):
A long time. I'm sorry about your brother getting even
know those years ago, I never met you. Hey, I
worked in DC for three and a half years in
government consulting, so I have a lot of experience with
about fifteen to twenty federal agencies, including the DoD. So
(20:17):
point one is that because I'm looking overall at the
new administration, that town is a wash and inefficiency and
an effectiveness. And I even was working closely with a
guy who was part of the Grace Commission, which is
at history to a lot of people today. So I
have ground based experience in federal consulting, including the Postal Service.
(20:40):
They did absolutely nothing with our work, and I'm still
in touch with some of these people. That town, with
the contractors and so forth, needs to be cleaned up.
It's very difficult. So Agenda point one is he has
limited time with must I'm not taking sides. I'm just
saying I saw it.
Speaker 1 (21:01):
Twot two, I.
Speaker 2 (21:01):
Worked in corporate America, two different publicly traded companies. I
know the profit motive, I know and understand the economics
of business, so I can safely say I'm a profit
driven guy a public pub publicly traded company or guys
like you. And I'm on my own now and I
do my own p and l okay, So I have
(21:23):
that experience. Point three I've worked for municipalities and in
the summer, in the government in the summer. I'm starting
to laugh. And I did an internship with the state, okay,
the town, So there's no efficiency there. So point two
would be that you're talking to a guy who's seen
a lot of different things, and I'm sixty six.
Speaker 1 (21:44):
Years old, and I got a couple of let's desk
your question about that.
Speaker 2 (21:48):
Now I have to make point three. No, no, I'm
going to make point three that this country likes to
buy stuff. And this guy, Mike, motivated me to call
we like buy into and let us for eighty eight
cents in the backs of people that maybe were Mexican
immigrants paid and funneling their money back with grant whatever
(22:10):
they call it, Grahams to Mexico to feed their family.
Now people like to buy fifteen hundred to two thousand
dollars phones, which is absurd off the slave labor. So
there's got to be a point in this country where
people aren't thinking just of themselves. And I'm by no
means a socialist.
Speaker 1 (22:29):
I do with you you there? Are you there? Paul?
I am okay, So I got one minute I would
ask you though, and you got an answer in thirty seconds.
The fact that President Trump doesn't have a lot of
time is not It's like you telling the trooper I
was going ninety because I was stuck in a car.
Speaker 2 (22:47):
No, No, it matters. It matters. Here's why it matters though,
because the congressional elections, they're already starting to gather steam.
They didn't want this guy in the first I'm not
I'm not taking sides. He can't wait a long, long time,
so we may be putting too aggressive of a position
(23:08):
on both the government cuts in this Do you think
he should wait six to eight months and do it
long No, I think he.
Speaker 1 (23:16):
Should do it more intelligently. I got to go for
the news ten thirty on the station dependent on for
news weather information lows COK ten and one O three one.
Speaker 2 (23:23):
W g Y.
Speaker 1 (23:29):
Theod Morning, and welcome back to the second half hour
of the Capitol District's Money and Investment Program. You're listening
to the Fagan financial point that we've expanded the meaning
of money a little bit in the first half hour,
and we'll continue to do so in the second half hour. Now,
the culling of the workforce, the federal workforce to a
certain extent is not something I think many Americans stay workforce,
(23:56):
you know, and I know a lot of stay workers,
s fetal workers, micropaw and I don't know which one
of you said it, but you know, there's a lot
of waste that certainly there's a lot of waste, and
there's a lot of waste everywhere. And I want whether
a quate. I don't have experience in the federal workforce,
so I don't know the waste there like Paul did,
but I will say that, you know, and the fact
that President Trump didn't have doesn't have a lot of time.
(24:19):
He may not feel like he has a lot of time,
and that's different, and like I said, that has nothing
to do with, you know, the actions that you take
just because you don't feel like you have a lot
of time. The market Mike's first call, Yeah, I walk
and said it. At that time, we were on chatout
six every week, my brother Chris and I during that
(24:40):
period of time was about a year they had they
had a call in and I remember saying regularly being
interviewed and also after that, you know, I'll say it now,
the wall streets like a like a you know, like
a like a mean, dog, you just don't. You don't
let it out back and leave the gate open. So
needs to be regulated to a certain extent. Uh, And
that went wrong. And eight now Wall Street now regardless
(25:05):
of whether they are they are looking to protect their own,
but they are a political I mentioned that the S
and P five hunter was up, you know, until inauguration day,
and it's been down since. So, I mean they want
President Trump to do well. It's not like they don't
like President Trump or this or that. So I think
we certainly did for there. I some countries have been
(25:27):
taking advantage of us, certainly some countries we wanted. We
definitely want to bring a production back home for national
security purposes. We definitely want to bring some production back
home to for the middle class for sure. I mentioned that,
you know, that was part of my not my monologue,
but I have three pages in those I wanted to
(25:47):
talk to I could take four hours and talk today.
Part of it says we all know that the middle
class has been carved out. Whoever, I believe that this
was not the correct way to fix it, meaning the tariffs,
and I talked about other ways of doing this, and
not an expert, but just to bring it, bring it
to the public discussion, you know, of changing the tax
structure making it more progressive. This is a regressive tax.
(26:10):
You know, when you when you talk about coffee, you know,
we're not going to produce coffee. We're gonna have to
import it, and the coffee goes up two bucks. You
know that that's going to be an issue, you know,
and then again you may see coffee as now about banana,
you know, we're not going to produce bananas in the
United States the extent that we eat them. So that's
a regressive tax because Americans with less income spend more
(26:31):
of a percentage of their total income on food than
somebody with the higher income. So it's a reaggressive tax,
and it will be a tax on the Americans. Yes,
Apple may may certainly eat some of the profit. They
also may and they also may manufacture, you know, less
than the United States. They also may you know, you know,
(26:53):
an unpredictable political environment. What happens in two years, What
happens in two years, Let's say that Democrats take over
of Congress. What happens in two years after that, if
there's a Democratic president, we go the other way. The
companies need a clear environment to operate in so that
they can plan longer term capital expenditures. So you have
(27:18):
a lot of things going on. I'm not saying I'm
an expert in them. I'm just pushing them out there
because that's what I think the market is dealing with
right now. And that's why I think it was down
ten percent over the past two days. Now, if we
push back, if we say, okay, I get it all
the time, how did the market do under Trump? How
did the market do under Biden? How did the market
do under Obama? And I answer those And if that's
(27:39):
going to be your your benchmark, then this will have
to be your benchmark too, all right. And that's the
way that goes, you know. So you know, I don't know.
I don't know what to say now. Going on with
what I started with, there've been three or four paragraphs
from our from our snapshot to our core of action,
(28:01):
you know, is to continue contacting our clients regularly twice
a week via the snapshot and shark Talk, updating them
on what we believed. And this is what I think
you should be getting from your advisor, updating them on
what we believe is occurring within the economic environment and
as it pertains to their portfolio. Our course of action
is to review portfolio holdings. Again, we did we balance,
you know, towards the end of the first quarter, to
(28:22):
make certain that you know, portfolios adhere to the client's
long term objectives and so should you make sure your
portfolio aligns with your lower term objectives. If you feel like, hey,
I've got to move a little bit off the table,
you know, fine, but I did sense panic in the
market on Friday. You know, you may be right. Panic
(28:43):
is not a plan of action. The plan of actions
should come before there is an event that would cause
you to sell it cause you to want to sell
in mass and we do that. We balanced February or
so February early March and completed that certainly before this
the volatility began. And you know, to our best of
(29:08):
our knowledge reviewing the accounts clients are in accordance with
their objectives. A course of action is to be available
via Zoom, in person or phones to answer any questions
that that our clients have on portfolio positions performance upon request.
So if your client listening and you have any questions,
you want to get together Zoom phone or in person.
Let us, know, you know, as a as a market moved.
(29:31):
I don't know where the market opens tomorrow.
Speaker 2 (29:33):
You know, maybe this is it.
Speaker 1 (29:34):
Maybe the market says, look, unemployments at four point two percent,
the United States is doing pretty well. You know, seventy
percent of America has contained. At some point in time,
the president is going to this is a negotiating tactic.
At some point in time, we're going to see, you know,
for the callers too, and this is a s food
for thought, you know, I think I think my biggest
(29:57):
concern is some of with the Arabs, but also with
the way that we we've treated our allies. And you
could say, hey, NATO needs to do it's their share
in this and that, you know, and I'm not I'm
not suggesting that some countries have taken advantage of to
a certain extent, but you know, we certainly have taken
advantage of other countries as well. I think the methodology
(30:21):
and again a caller may say, well, you're seeing sausage
be made. As an investor, I don't think the average investor,
the average company wants to see the sausage be made,
all right. I think the average investor wants to think
there's there's like two parents. There's continuity when you're speaking
to your to your to your son or daughter. Conversely,
(30:43):
when we're dealing with our Canadian you know, brothers, friends,
the EU. You know, by and large France UK that
we're we're you know, we are still allied. So my
biggest fear is that if we get off the global
stage economically and politically, that void is going to be failed.
(31:07):
And I'd rather be in control of the future and
control the dollar and control of things geopolitically. Then, you know,
everybody's greatest fear in my mind too, China steps into
that void and now as a bigger say in what
goes on globally. Look, you know if we if we
if we push too hard, then other countries are going
(31:28):
to look for alternatives to the US And think that's
my fear too, And I don't know. I often say
that this is this is like a bar fight. You know,
we controlled the first punch, and after that all hell
breaks loose, and who knows who controls the first punch
after that. So those are some things that I'm concerned
about when I think about the market today as opposed
(31:49):
to you know, a couple of months ago, you know,
what can I say? But so so continue along our
plan of action. But but again, if the market continues
to move lower, you know, it's to confolidate portfolios into
funds or companies that we believe will emerge from this uh,
(32:10):
this this time frame capable of competing on the global
stage and thriving on the global stage. However that morphs.
You know, you've got to be ready to have have
companies that to compete there. The other thing I was
saying in response to Paul a little bit, I wouldn't
say that, but Paul may be right. You know, if
(32:32):
Apple is manufacturing phones technology that American wants. But you know,
if if Americans feel like those phones got to be
thirty five hundred bucks rather than a thousand dollars, which
is where they are now, but would rather have them
produced here, amongst a lot of other things, I think
(32:52):
you're basically pricing yourself out of the global market. So
you may see Apple, you know, focus less on the US,
and again we're twenty seven twenty eight percent of global GDP,
so you know it's not going to be a small
decision that they would make. But maybe they focused less
on the US and more elsewhere. Maybe technology you know,
(33:13):
is developed elsewhere, technology which is really our bread and butter.
It's not making you know, socks and underwear. So all
those I firmly agree with Paul and Mike and probably
most of the listeners. Let's get that here. Let's build
the middle class. Let's build the middle class on the
backs of you know, bringing some manufacturing home and also
(33:36):
bringing uh and also you know, perhaps slowing down some
of the squeezing some of the profit margins of some
of our our larger company companies. But nothing comes without
a cost. And that's and I think, and again circling
back to my initial comments coming out of the break
was you know, I don't care how much and this
(33:59):
is our president. I don't care how much time Joe
Biden has our President Trump. That's not a concern of
mine or as an American. My concern is that, hey,
we've got to write the ship, and to write the ship.
I don't believe that abroad tariffs with the with the
with the right move and also just the calculation the
deficit as opposed to the total to the total imports,
(34:24):
and I think that came up to sixty seven percent
on China trade weighted tariffs in China about three percent.
President Trump comes to my break and you know had
thirty four percent. They have a minimum of a ten
percent of tariff on all countries and that's hard. You know,
we talk about Greenland all the time in the office,
and we talk about you know, rare earth minual minerals.
(34:47):
Let's say there were rare earth minerals we valued at
ten trillion dollars in Greenland and we bought all of them. Well,
we're gonna have a trade dept Greenland. Does that mean
because they have many people there, but because they're not
buying as much from us as we're buying from them,
does that mean that they should pay a large tariff? No,
(35:08):
America is the wealthiest country in the world, and it
stands to reason that we have a trade deficit. Now
that said again, you know, a level playing field is
is you know, generally speaking, is to be you know,
strived for. But I think you know, you also look
(35:28):
at countries that you know where a large percentage of
percentage of their GDP comes from one product, like you know,
some of the Caribbean countries or the South American countries.
You know that's say coffee, or bananas or this or that.
You know, it's a levey. A tariff of thirty or
forty percent is going to cause other feopolitical actions within
that country that we may not like. So, yeah, some
(35:50):
things cost us money, all things. And I think we
have a tendency to say, Okay, it's either it costs
us money, so we're being pillaged something. And again, you know,
I hope this comes out right. It's a price you
pay to be the leader on the global stage, you know,
And that's what that's what I'm concerned about with the market,
(36:10):
and specifically with the tariffs. I think that's what you know,
I find as an issue going forward if Canada now
looks to the EU for their oil and we need
their four million barrels of oil a day because we
can't refine enough of our own oil despite how much
we can drill to meet our needs, because we don't
have the refinery capacity here because they haven't built a
(36:32):
real sizeable refinery in probably thirty or forty years. So
those are some things that I think about every day
for our clients, you know. And before this week, I
was thinking things are going pretty good. You know, we're
working through this President Trumpell will levy tariffs and in
a reasonable manner. I think the market said it wasn't
our plan of action. Contact our clients, review portfolios, be available,
(36:56):
consolidate portfolios as they go down, and to help our
clients look past this environment to book two, three, four
years down the road, when cooler heads prevailed, you know,
we could snap back. And this is why I think,
you know, when you when you get out of the
market in its entirety, we could snap back in a
heartbeat and the market could be pushing up all time
(37:20):
highs again because it went down so much. And see
the other thing, too, is that there are some there
were some things that went on this past week, and
you know things that I do. You know that I
am quote unquote an expert. D Now, the market just
doesn't drop eight nine ten percent without a reason. Wall
Street does not want to drop eight nine ten percent.
And a reason that was a verdict on President Trump's tariffs.
(37:44):
Like it or not? All right, so it's down ten percent.
The question or the kind of pause, let's give this time,
or maybe it was Mike, let's give this time. I
asked him how long? Six months? All right? You know?
And in you know some you know the market. The
market has a tendency again doing this forty years. The
(38:07):
market humbles everybody, and at some point in time if
this is let's say what happens tomorrow, Tuesday, Wednesday. I
do think if I had a guess, and it is
a guess, because market moves kind of, it's a random walk.
To quote a book, I forget it, wrote Benjamin Graham.
I think random walked down wall streets. I think it
(38:28):
was Benim mcgrahams. You know, no one can predict which
way the market is going, but I will say that,
you know, I would expect uh, Burton Malchi excuse me, uh,
walk around and word a random what the will street.
I would expect the soft opening tomorrow and then probably
trying to, you know, gain a foundation in there because
(38:50):
the US economy is still strong. I do think over
the next month or two, Congress, which I would think, uh,
most of our listeners would want Congress to step in.
They should have the right to at least, you know,
have a say in these tariffs. You can say they're
ineffective or not ineffective. I will say, regardless, if it's
constitutionally provided, they should constitutionally have the right and the
(39:16):
ability to really control otherwise, you know, why have the
three branches of government? Right? So those are something wrong on.
But what I saw with the market this week from
an equity perspective, I saw down nine or ten percent.
The other thing too, is you know we were down
our clients on the stock side nine or ten percent.
What does that mean to me? It means that we're
(39:37):
correlated to the S and P five hundred, which is
a benchmark that you kind of want to be correlated to.
You also should take a look at what you're down
through the year. Your portfolio. Your stock side should be
down about thirteen or fourteen percent, because that's what the
S and P is down. If your stock portfolio is
down twenty percent, you're more correlated to the the as
that composite because that's what that's down. So maybe you
(39:57):
got too many of the go go companies in there.
You need to lighten up, I would say, too, would
I lighten up now? I would? I would, because we
don't know what's going to happen from this point in time.
Like anyone who says, hey I know this, I know
that I think is whistling past the graveyard. So so
(40:17):
so if if you you brought the equity exposure, but
you're find you're down twenty percent or so, lighten up.
You know, we like them. We like these companies. We
like Amazon, we like Meta, you know, we like We
bought some of c I d R on Friday, which
is which is an ETF is a cyber etfuh madzic
(40:37):
cybersecurity some of the largest cyber cybersecurity is not going
to stop now. They might have more trouble exporting your
software or there might be tariffs involved, so that could
be an issue. But if the United States is a
tech tech hub, so we're going to need cybersecurity here overall.
From from an all time high, you're you're talking S
and P five hundred down seventeen percent. Nazek is in
(40:59):
bear market territory down twenty two point seven three percent.
Russell two thousand, which is the second third thousand largest
American stocks, down twenty five percent. The transport's got hammered
because of slower I receive movement of goods, down twenty
five percent from its high. Utilities fared pretty well this
past week, down three point six percent, with the S
and P was down nine oh eight man's back down ten.
(41:22):
I'd be careful about, you know, moving into utilities here
too much. I think, you know, I think at some
point in time of next month or two, this will
break favorably. From what level. I don't know. I think
President Trump is you know, Penciege, stubborn person. Again. You
may say appropriately or not. It may say it's going
to work out in the long run. It is. But
(41:43):
when as as as if I'm the longer the uncertainty remains,
the longer the market will stay someone in limbo. So
the market obviously raised a yellow flag this past week.
I think, let me see here, what else raised the
yellow flag for me? Obviously declining over dancing stocks. There
were barely any of advancing stocks. Decliners out faced of
(42:06):
dancing stocks by probably sixteen or seventeen to one on
the New York Stock Exchange, and by you know, that
same amount pretty much on the on the NASDAC. Interest
rates came down, and I don't get too happy about
mortgage rates coming down because I think what we're gonna see,
(42:29):
not like it came down because there's lots of inventory
out there. Mortgage rates are coming down because and then
the that futures are projecting five rate cuts coming from
the FED. Mortgage rates came down, interest rates came down.
The ten year moved from four to twenty seven to
four oh one, the two year moved from three d
nine to three sixty eight because the poor tending of
(42:54):
the slowing economy. But I think that's what we saw there.
I am concerned about the dollar dollar weekend. The dollars
down about six percent from the close of last year,
and it will make things more expensive home, more competitive abroad,
(43:14):
somewhat inflationary, and then bullish sentiment is very low. I'm
sure it'll go down again. That's a contrarian indicator. And
like I said, mortgage rates have headed headed headed down,
and I think again it's gonna be more. It's more
indicative of the slowing economy than Hey, this is good news.
And also I hope you know, you know what we
(43:35):
got a few minutes left are some of the things
I want to put it quick. And I think you
got to be where the doom sayers come in out
of the woodwork. I think that there's uh as far
as the US economy, as far as I think the
jury's out. The jury's out on the number front. What
what's President Trump going to do, what's the impact going
(43:56):
to be on the economy? How long will this last?
What will other countries do, will they form form longer
term economic and geopolitical alliances? If things like that that
I think are going to take a while to potentially
play out, So it leaves room for doom stayers. I
(44:16):
think to write off America is a is a big mistake,
and I would not be doing it here. I just
think at this point in time, you just want to
be a little bit plus. I also think that and
just going back to you know what what what Paul said,
It's funny how we get labels Wall Street, you know,
(44:40):
as a label of negativity. I would hope Fagan Associates doesn't.
You know, we might be affiliated with the Financial Services Actor.
But I would be a Paul if I thought people
didn't think that we were putting our best foot forward
every time we met with them or worked with their portfolio,
talked on the radio, or and gave our candid thoughts.
You know, people say, well, people say honestly. Yeah, I
(45:01):
hope you realize. I hope people realize you should always
be honest, you know, I try to be candid with
with the listeners, not just honest, you know, so I
think you could, you know, I think. So what I'm
saying is is that, you know, we got to be
careful not to label Wall Street as negative or President
Trump as negative, or the left or the right as
(45:23):
bad or good. And why I'm saying that is, you know,
I think when when you you're ignoring the fact that
there are there are many people on the right, and
more people on the right, I would think, and not
not in the right, more people on Wall Street that
you thought were left that that voted President Trump called.
I mean, look at look at his who was on
(45:45):
stage with him, you know, you know, Mark Zuckerberg, Eli Musk,
all the leaders in the industry. So Wall Street wants
President Trump to do well, and they were decidedly negative
on this, you know. So that's the bottom line. And
then I think it's hubris to say, well, everyone's wrong,
and I'm right. I think at that point in time,
(46:07):
you know, the market can the market continues to go down,
you can't just say, well, we've got to give more time.
You've got to give more time. And no, you know, yes,
you should give more time. Don't get me wrong. But
he's got to kind of I think, you know, keed
this movement and respond to it and not just say
you know, this is the way it is and it's
(46:29):
going to be this way forever, because every every time
that's the last word, I think, you know, Wall Street
will continue to uh have a lot of trouble making
any headways. You know, I talked about a little bit
about the cost of production. If you look at labor, transportation, materials,
taxes and tariffs, financing, the geopolitical environment, the preservation or
(46:51):
protection of intellectual property, look at infrastructure, the regulatory environment,
the company countries, companies operate in, where their end markets are,
the transparency, the financial market. Those all go into where
country companies decide to to put their factories. And I think,
you know, that's going to be a bigger decision moving forward,
(47:13):
going forward than it might have been, you know, you
know last week, you know, and there will be this
is an earthquake, there will be after shocks to this.
Let me see, but like I said, this could be
this could have longer lasting impact than we think, or
could get a snap back rally. I just I just
wouldn't I wouldn't, you know, I wouldn't you know, wouldn't
(47:36):
make wholesale moves with a portfolio, you need to make
incremental moves because incremental moves typically do typically work well
over the wall wall like anything else in life. I
hope you enjoyed the show. I try not to have
any type of politicallyings interfere with our ability to do
our job. We are sticking within the parameters of our
(47:57):
mutually agreed upon contrast with our clients and and we
do see some optimism in amidst the rubble. Thanks for
listening and feel free to give us called during the
week five one, eight, two, seven, nine, ten, forty four.
Check us on the websfigan aff it dot com
Good morning, and welcome to the Capital District's Money and
Investment Program. You're listening to the Sagan Financial Report, Aaron.
This is Don his Fagan. Aaron is off today, he's
traveling on business. He'll be in tomorrow. Obviously, market meltdown
on Thursday and Friday. We'll talk a lot about that,
for sure, probably spend the whole show talking about that.
(00:24):
You know, some of the things I'll talk about. I'll
talk about giving my you know, forty plus years of
experience in this business and what I see, and you know,
the fact that you know, people do look to us
to as an expert in this field. And also we've
been in business thirty five years. We've seen a lot
of different market environments, financial environments, economic environments, markets, bear markets,
(00:51):
bull markets, quick ones like the pandemic, longer ones that
lasted from two thousand to twenty ten. And something I'm
going to talk about as someone who's in the formed
on political or excuse me, a financial matters, but certainly
not an expert on tariffs. You know, I'm not an
(01:13):
expert on geopolitical issues. But I'm just going to try
to make sense of it for you and kind of
frame our outlook for the market based upon that we're
all working with uncertain times. It was funny of the
pandemic was something we hadn't seen in one hundred years,
and this type of type of tariff structure we haven't
(01:34):
seen in since nineteen thirty or so. And I'm not
here to say it's great or it's poor, it's this
or that. You know, I will the market is the
ultimate arbiter of financial things, and as of now, they
say the market said it was a bad move or
really bad move. We'll also take a look at some
(01:58):
comments from others. I don't want to pick sides. Not
picking sides, I'm just saying that what I believe is
three percussions from this and the repercussions from the last
you know, two or three months from the Trump administration.
I'm hoping that you know, it turns around a little bit.
(02:18):
So I'm doing BTE calls knowing that some of you
may know more than others. I'm not interested in being
blasted because I maybe pure a little left or right
on an issue. I'm just trying to do my best.
Given to ten percent correction quote unquote correction that we
saw on Thursday and Friday as a result of the
(02:39):
implementation of the tariff policy on Wednesday evening, and also
how those numbers were calculated. T have about maybe maybe
I'll take ten minutes or so fifteen minutes. I don't know,
but Jack, if we get a call, you'll feel free
to cut in. Don't want this to be a monologue.
Like I said, Aaron is traveling today, so it will
be a minor unless we get called. So let's let's
(03:02):
go for it and see what happened. So we send
out a snapshot too. It's called a weekly snapshot. It
sent out every Sunday morning. Sam Sam Sam Dow does
it or Aaron Ryan believe it went out, although I
can't be sure because I've been working all morning and
haven't had a real chance to look at it. But
it goes out every every Sunday morning, as I mentioned.
(03:24):
And then Thursday Wednesday usually this week of every week,
we send out what's called the chart Talk, and it
describes what's going on in the market a little bit.
We send that out Thursday this past week, because you know,
we're kind of looking at okay, if the step of
the snapshot did go on when I'm just looking out
my notes or my email went out at about eight
(03:46):
o'clock this morn So if you want to copy, email
me at Daganassociates dot com or Dennis with two ends
dot fig and F A G A and at Dagana
Associates dot com. We'll get that right out to you.
You know that said we also, so we send something
up Thursday describing, you know, the market's a bit. We
send something off Friday again from an email that we
(04:07):
received from from a client. Maybe talk a little bit
about that today and then and then and then go
from there. So so that's where you have it. Let
me see here. So that's how we're going to handle
it today. Like I said, if you have any questions
portfolio questions and so that feel give us some feel
free to give us called. But at the snapschat that
went out today, this is how I wrote it. Okay,
(04:28):
after falling five percent in each of the trading of
the trading days, find the imposition of the broad terraffs
by the Trump administration on Wednesday evening, and I would
say after the market close, the a political financial markets. Look,
the markets are not political. They want to make money.
The a political and they don't care who's in charge.
They want the markets to go up. The a political
(04:49):
financial markets have spoken and in doing so, had theysued
a verdict on the wisdom of such an economic policy.
Now before pointing to the robust jobs report on Friday,
and it was job support was great on Friday. I
think Americans labor market, you know, added two hundred twenty
eight thousand jobs during March. The consensus was for one
hundred and thirty. Payroll numbers for the prior too much
(05:11):
were revised downward a little bit. The private sector companies
added two hundred nine thousand, the public sector added nineteen thousand,
despite the fact that there was a four thousand employee dropping.
The federal government unemployment rate at four point two percent.
Good numbers right across the board. Average houral earnings of
nine cents to thirty six bucks an hour of three
(05:32):
point eight four percent from one year ago. Weekly earnings
up three and change percent from a year ago. Manufacturing
week picked up a little bit, the work week held
steady at thirty four hours thirty four and a half
hours or so. So the numbers, we can't really sit
back and say, oh, wow, these weren't good numbers. I
will say that that for those that say, look at
(05:54):
the jobs report, keep in mind that all of the
data collected for the Jobs report was done prior to
the imposition of the tariffs at the close of business
on Wednesday. Second paragraph obviously as American, not to mention
the industry within which we work. I work, you know,
as for the benefit you know, you know, we have
(06:15):
a business. You know, it's a viable business. You know,
we certainly want our clients to benefit from it. All
so mutually benefit, beneficial relationship. We want the market to
go up. We want President Trump to do well. There's
no doubt about that. You know. It's good for us,
it's good for our families, it's great for our clients,
it's great for our business. We were rooting for the
(06:36):
Trump administration to do well. In fact, Scots rallied sharply
shortly after President Trump was elected and right up until
the inauguration day on January twentieth, and the belief that
the tight regulatory environment that existed during the Biden administration
with loosen tariffs, if applied, would be done sparingly and
only after exercising due diligence, and our border would become
(06:58):
more secure. I think that's what that's an inflation would
go down. I didn't put that in there. Evidence supporting
this opinion is that three point seven percent rise in
the SMP from election day to an aug duration day,
and this in six point four to six percent for
the Nasdack composite post in all directions, the whole posting
auguration is a whole different story. The financial markets have
(07:20):
issued a different verdict as other than securing our border,
that leaves a lot to be desired. In fact, the
s and P five hundred NAS that composite have formed
fifteen point three eight percent and twenty point five nine percent, respectively,
with more than half of that coming on Thursday and Friday.
So again, a political financial market. I'm gonna get a
drink of water. Excuse me, we even do it the
(07:44):
whole time in a monologue. I don't mind. I got
a lot to say, and I want food for thought.
Speaker 2 (07:49):
You know.
Speaker 1 (07:49):
I like dialogue with friends and family and this and that.
I like learning. I like I'm an actually a history
in English major. I've been to tons of Civil War battlefields.
I've been the France. The battlefield's over there. My great
uncle's buried over there from Wan. I have a great
affinity for people who have served our country and they
also have you know, I also try to tie history
(08:12):
and look back at historical precedents to see what's going on.
So you know, I'm just interested in this, So I
don't mind talking for it now, but feel free to
give me a call again at one eight hundred talk
WGY at one hundred and eight two five, five, nine four,
and if I think, peach your interests as of thus far.
So if you're writing this early Sunday morning, we expect
the market's open lower tomorrow unless President Trump released is
(08:33):
something that sounds conciliatory in nature. However, if he continues
on this path, we do expect at some point in
time over the next one or two months for both
Houses of Congress to try to reclaim its ability to
land collect taxes, duties in posts and exercises, as outlined
with an Article one, section eight of the US Constitution,
powers which acceeded to the president partially in nineteen thirty four,
(08:56):
within the Reciprocal Trade Agreement Act, the Trade Expansion Act
of nineteen sixty two, the Trade Act of nineteen seventy four,
and the International Emergency Powers Act of nineteen seventy seven.
Unless one of these events the curb, either the more
conciliatory tones from the President or the Congress stepping in
to reclaim its ability to be the ones to collect
(09:16):
the tariffs or to lemby tariffs, the financial markets will
can take it continue to struggle to maintain these levels.
It just makes sense and market clothes that it's low
on Friday, gintures open at six o'clock. Yes, Sex, we
have Mike from delmar on Hold, Okay, put them on.
(09:37):
Good morning to Mike.
Speaker 3 (09:38):
You're on the air, Dennis, thanks for taking my call.
You make a lot of good points. The only point
I want to make is that in seven way, Wall
Street brought this country to the brink of financial ruin.
So for these guys, all they care about is their bonuses.
I worked in that industry and I saw what they did,
(10:00):
and nobody went to jail over it. So for them
to harp on Trump, he's trying to bring back jobs
in middle class So let's give it a chance. But
if you look back, how many millions of people lost
jobs and O seven oh eight, So Mike and grandfather
lost his job when they moved a factory to Mexico.
(10:22):
So let's please, let's stop the nonsense and give Trump
a chance.
Speaker 1 (10:26):
But let me ask you a question about that, though, Mike,
it is a question. I mean, I hope you listen
long enough to know you know, not a pontificator or abbloviator.
You know, I wonder like how I mean. And I'm
not saying as I'm saying if we were having a
beer together, Okay, you know how long of a chance
before you find out it's the right course of action?
That I often say too, And I will let you
(10:49):
respond as long as you like. I think that we
needed a change of diet. We didn't need the heart paddle.
That's that's that's the concern. And I agree with you
Wall Street. Look, people say to me, hey, you know
so and so. Do you know so and so works
in this industry? Now we sit up on who's extreet
and we work so No, I agree with you one
hundred percent, But I you know, I think if if
(11:09):
we're going in the wrong direction, you know, if it
if it's if it's if it's drastically wrong, it's much
different than being a little bit wrong. And if you
stays okay with the Wall Street and oh seven Elite.
That was drastically wrong, and look what it will. But
if this is drastically wrong, do we want to go
through that again? And I'm asking you that question. I'm
not saying I know the answer. So I would ask you.
Speaker 3 (11:30):
That you can't have a plan on Monday and then
on Wednesday say you know what, I'm not sure you
have to I'm not this isn't gonna work. Let's go
back to Monday's plan. You have to give it six months.
Already already countries are calling him to negotiate. And I agree.
There's never been probably free trade in the world. Even
(11:51):
when we started the country, we lived on terrorists, right,
that was where we got our revenues, terrorists and fees
and stuff. So so let's let's give it a chance.
And the world is very complex. I realized when they
talk about shipping parts and the manufacturing. But Dennis, you're
you know your study of history. We were rolling off
(12:13):
the seventeens and twenties and the bombers an hour on
the Ford plant. I don't think we could do that today.
So if we ever had a national emergency and China
wants to take Taiwan, what's next. I'm just thinking I
won't be around what's next? Honolulu, Hawaii? Then the way.
So they want to take over the world. So you
(12:35):
can't produce in your own country, you're subject to the
whims of these other nations that want to do you harm.
So I'm taking that view and also to jobs. Look
in this area. How many factories close here? From the
lawn what is the lawnmower company? You know, the one
(12:56):
that was in Lansingburg.
Speaker 1 (12:59):
Mean people.
Speaker 3 (13:02):
Garden way from ge to waterflee all the all the
and I'm not saying right, industries changed, things change and
stuff like that. But for my point is for Wall
Street to throw it at Trump after they brought the
world to its knees and that one and it was fraud.
It was from the rating agencies. It was the Fanny
(13:23):
Maze of the world. It was all the Wall Street companies.
People carry the average joe carrying out their boxes, but
all the big guys kept all their millions of dollars.
So that's my only point. I take it this.
Speaker 1 (13:35):
Okay, let me ask you this. And it's kind of
why preface did like I think Wall Street likes Trump.
It's not like they're anti Trump. I mean I think
they were anti discs. And I think that's what we've
got to do too. We've got to separate, even talking
politically amongst friends in the lake, You've got to separate
our political leanings with with with some of the reality
on both sides. Okay. And I'm saying, you know, Wall
(13:57):
Street like Trump, the market was up, the market was
doing well. I think they're decidedly negative on tariffs, and
I think that's my issue. And and Wall Street has it,
you know, they have they turn the screws like that.
And I don't know how much I mean, how much
time do you give before it does turn into an
oh seven or early situation?
Speaker 3 (14:17):
And that's what that situation built up over a number
of years, right a decade free money, the banks, they
didn't nobody's checking, no income grant. That movie, What's the
What's the movie which with Steve Correll there about the
girl which.
Speaker 1 (14:35):
Is a stripper.
Speaker 3 (14:35):
She's got a couple of yeah in the market when
you go and he goes up and she's got like
three or four condos and she didn't even know anything
about the market. So all I'm saying is you got
to give it more than two days or a week.
And why.
Speaker 1 (14:52):
Do you do you measure that? How do you measure that? Like,
how would you measure time?
Speaker 3 (14:58):
I would give it at least six months. Let's see
if China's the big dog, right?
Speaker 1 (15:03):
You know what that is?
Speaker 3 (15:04):
You're a student student of history. We've been we've been
funding the world, taking care of the world since World
War Two? Right, So we really exported our jobs all
over the world, especially to China, Vietnam, to Asia for
cheap goods and brought up their brought out their economy
at the plight of the middle class. In my opinion,
(15:24):
this is how I rehistory. And I'm not saying it's
right or wrong. It is what it is that you
got to give Trump six months. Why can't we sell
cars in Europe? Why can't we sell our products to Canada?
Why are they putting terrorists on our goods? If they
want free trade, I agree with reciprocal no terrorists. If
you want ten percent, we'll get ten percent. What's I
don't understand what's wrong with that concept?
Speaker 1 (15:46):
Well, I think it was applied. I think the concept
was applied with a broad brush. I mean, and it
wasn't on a trade weighted basis. I also think that
how President Trump arrived at the numbers was suspect, you know,
taking you know, the trade surplus are deficits, dividing it
into the the imports and coming up with a percentage
(16:07):
rather than taking somewhat of a trade weighted basis. You know,
I agree with you that there's there's there's doors that
should be open to the US, for sure, but I
also think it should be done in a especially with
our allies, in a more.
Speaker 2 (16:21):
Uh.
Speaker 1 (16:21):
I guess behind the behind closed doors fashion. You may
say that's Trump and this and that, you know that
that's that's up to you, but I think, you know,
I remember.
Speaker 3 (16:29):
Trump's I'm sorry, I remember Trump supporter. But the more
I see what he's doing and just whether it's NATO,
they don't pay their fair share. We have basis fool
around the world. Where what do you think in Germany,
all those bases, all the all the guys, when they're
spending money and stuff like that, when it's worked for
those local economies and stuff like that. In Japan and
(16:50):
Korea not only protection but also to the to their
economies and stuff like that, I think it's.
Speaker 1 (16:56):
I think, however, the United States has benefited a lot
and goal global trade as well. I think that. I
think the car we had certainly lots of lots of
things we're manufacturing that you know, we're not gonna where
labor is a large component of the total clust of manufacturing.
We're just not going to compete. We're not going to
compete for socks and things like that. You know, we're better.
(17:18):
We have the tendency to take our best performing industries
push them to the bottom. Like what do you think
about Apple? Your iPhone's gonna be four grand versus one
thousand bucks, and we're just not gonna be able to
take those components and manufacture them here in a coust
effect would matter.
Speaker 3 (17:34):
Dennis, what's the gross profit on an Apple phone? Why
are they making very trying with slave but why are
they making in commedist trying to with slave labor?
Speaker 1 (17:42):
That?
Speaker 3 (17:42):
Well, I can't, I can't. I can't get over I
can't get over that. So Apple, to me, it's a
great product. Why can't it be made in the US. Why, well,
we just why can't it be made? You're paying eighteen
hundred dollars or two thousand dollars for a phone now,
so it's got to be fifteen high ndred dollars profit.
I don't know what the gross profit is, but I
(18:02):
know it's a hell of a lot more. And they're
using slave labor, so I I I got to you know,
Apple is a great company, but they're also they're they're using,
they're using and why aren't they paying those you know,
workers aren't made. I just don't think workers make a
fair wage when you have slave labor, like in China
or Mexico or wherever.
Speaker 1 (18:23):
I just it's I think you know what bringing back home. See,
you won't see that. You won't you won't see manufacturing
in the United States. Either way. You'll either see Apple
pay the tariffs. And you're right, You're right, Mike. It
may may limit their profits and cut into their profits,
and Apple stock may be cut in half. I just
think a more a more gradual approach to this would
(18:45):
have been, uh, would have been appropriate. But I'll let
you go. It's great to talk to you, okay, Dennis,
take care of my bye bye, all right. That's w
I one hundred eight two five five nine four nine.
And there's no there's no perfect way. You know, the
United States certainly has you know, twenty five twenty eight
percent of GDP. You know, one of the things that
(19:06):
I wanted to say, and i'll I have in a
bullet here. It wasn't part of my opening monologue, so
to speak, if you want to call that, And it
was like, we all know that there are a lot
of problems. We all know that the middle class has
been carved out. However, I believe that this was not
the correct way to fix this. In addition to it,
and pardon mes that, okay, give me about a minute, right,
(19:29):
in addition to in addition to intelligently prolling the public
workforce and curbing public spending, this is the way I
would fix it, you know, intelligently prone the public workforce,
curb public spending, change at tax structure, close the step
of a basis, close the carried interest loophole, raise the
social security threshold, curtail lobbying firm limits, and i'll you know,
(19:49):
and then regulate R and DS as it pertains medicating, Like,
let's put Paul on the our good Morning player on me.
Speaker 2 (19:56):
A long time. I'm sorry about your brother getting even
know those years ago, I never met you. Hey, I
worked in DC for three and a half years in
government consulting, so I have a lot of experience with
about fifteen to twenty federal agencies, including the DoD. So
(20:17):
point one is that because I'm looking overall at the
new administration, that town is a wash and inefficiency and
an effectiveness. And I even was working closely with a
guy who was part of the Grace Commission, which is
at history to a lot of people today. So I
have ground based experience in federal consulting, including the Postal Service.
(20:40):
They did absolutely nothing with our work, and I'm still
in touch with some of these people. That town, with
the contractors and so forth, needs to be cleaned up.
It's very difficult. So Agenda point one is he has
limited time with must I'm not taking sides. I'm just
saying I saw it.
Speaker 1 (21:01):
Twot two, I.
Speaker 2 (21:01):
Worked in corporate America, two different publicly traded companies. I
know the profit motive, I know and understand the economics
of business, so I can safely say I'm a profit
driven guy a public pub publicly traded company or guys
like you. And I'm on my own now and I
do my own p and l okay, So I have
(21:23):
that experience. Point three I've worked for municipalities and in
the summer, in the government in the summer. I'm starting
to laugh. And I did an internship with the state, okay,
the town, So there's no efficiency there. So point two
would be that you're talking to a guy who's seen
a lot of different things, and I'm sixty six.
Speaker 1 (21:44):
Years old, and I got a couple of let's desk
your question about that.
Speaker 2 (21:48):
Now I have to make point three. No, no, I'm
going to make point three that this country likes to
buy stuff. And this guy, Mike, motivated me to call
we like buy into and let us for eighty eight
cents in the backs of people that maybe were Mexican
immigrants paid and funneling their money back with grant whatever
(22:10):
they call it, Grahams to Mexico to feed their family.
Now people like to buy fifteen hundred to two thousand
dollars phones, which is absurd off the slave labor. So
there's got to be a point in this country where
people aren't thinking just of themselves. And I'm by no
means a socialist.
Speaker 1 (22:29):
I do with you you there? Are you there? Paul?
I am okay, So I got one minute I would
ask you though, and you got an answer in thirty seconds.
The fact that President Trump doesn't have a lot of
time is not It's like you telling the trooper I
was going ninety because I was stuck in a car.
Speaker 2 (22:47):
No, No, it matters. It matters. Here's why it matters though,
because the congressional elections, they're already starting to gather steam.
They didn't want this guy in the first I'm not
I'm not taking sides. He can't wait a long, long time,
so we may be putting too aggressive of a position
(23:08):
on both the government cuts in this Do you think
he should wait six to eight months and do it
long No, I think he.
Speaker 1 (23:16):
Should do it more intelligently. I got to go for
the news ten thirty on the station dependent on for
news weather information lows COK ten and one O three one.
Speaker 2 (23:23):
W g Y.
Speaker 1 (23:29):
Theod Morning, and welcome back to the second half hour
of the Capitol District's Money and Investment Program. You're listening
to the Fagan financial point that we've expanded the meaning
of money a little bit in the first half hour,
and we'll continue to do so in the second half hour. Now,
the culling of the workforce, the federal workforce to a
certain extent is not something I think many Americans stay workforce,
(23:56):
you know, and I know a lot of stay workers,
s fetal workers, micropaw and I don't know which one
of you said it, but you know, there's a lot
of waste that certainly there's a lot of waste, and
there's a lot of waste everywhere. And I want whether
a quate. I don't have experience in the federal workforce,
so I don't know the waste there like Paul did,
but I will say that, you know, and the fact
that President Trump didn't have doesn't have a lot of time.
(24:19):
He may not feel like he has a lot of time,
and that's different, and like I said, that has nothing
to do with, you know, the actions that you take
just because you don't feel like you have a lot
of time. The market Mike's first call, Yeah, I walk
and said it. At that time, we were on chatout
six every week, my brother Chris and I during that
(24:40):
period of time was about a year they had they
had a call in and I remember saying regularly being
interviewed and also after that, you know, I'll say it now,
the wall streets like a like a you know, like
a like a mean, dog, you just don't. You don't
let it out back and leave the gate open. So
needs to be regulated to a certain extent. Uh, And
that went wrong. And eight now Wall Street now regardless
(25:05):
of whether they are they are looking to protect their own,
but they are a political I mentioned that the S
and P five hunter was up, you know, until inauguration day,
and it's been down since. So, I mean they want
President Trump to do well. It's not like they don't
like President Trump or this or that. So I think
we certainly did for there. I some countries have been
(25:27):
taking advantage of us, certainly some countries we wanted. We
definitely want to bring a production back home for national
security purposes. We definitely want to bring some production back
home to for the middle class for sure. I mentioned that,
you know, that was part of my not my monologue,
but I have three pages in those I wanted to
(25:47):
talk to I could take four hours and talk today.
Part of it says we all know that the middle
class has been carved out. Whoever, I believe that this
was not the correct way to fix it, meaning the tariffs,
and I talked about other ways of doing this, and
not an expert, but just to bring it, bring it
to the public discussion, you know, of changing the tax
structure making it more progressive. This is a regressive tax.
(26:10):
You know, when you when you talk about coffee, you know,
we're not going to produce coffee. We're gonna have to
import it, and the coffee goes up two bucks. You
know that that's going to be an issue, you know,
and then again you may see coffee as now about banana,
you know, we're not going to produce bananas in the
United States the extent that we eat them. So that's
a regressive tax because Americans with less income spend more
(26:31):
of a percentage of their total income on food than
somebody with the higher income. So it's a reaggressive tax,
and it will be a tax on the Americans. Yes,
Apple may may certainly eat some of the profit. They
also may and they also may manufacture, you know, less
than the United States. They also may you know, you know,
(26:53):
an unpredictable political environment. What happens in two years, What
happens in two years, Let's say that Democrats take over
of Congress. What happens in two years after that, if
there's a Democratic president, we go the other way. The
companies need a clear environment to operate in so that
they can plan longer term capital expenditures. So you have
(27:18):
a lot of things going on. I'm not saying I'm
an expert in them. I'm just pushing them out there
because that's what I think the market is dealing with
right now. And that's why I think it was down
ten percent over the past two days. Now, if we
push back, if we say, okay, I get it all
the time, how did the market do under Trump? How
did the market do under Biden? How did the market
do under Obama? And I answer those And if that's
(27:39):
going to be your your benchmark, then this will have
to be your benchmark too, all right. And that's the
way that goes, you know. So you know, I don't know.
I don't know what to say now. Going on with
what I started with, there've been three or four paragraphs
from our from our snapshot to our core of action,
(28:01):
you know, is to continue contacting our clients regularly twice
a week via the snapshot and shark Talk, updating them
on what we believed. And this is what I think
you should be getting from your advisor, updating them on
what we believe is occurring within the economic environment and
as it pertains to their portfolio. Our course of action
is to review portfolio holdings. Again, we did we balance,
you know, towards the end of the first quarter, to
(28:22):
make certain that you know, portfolios adhere to the client's
long term objectives and so should you make sure your
portfolio aligns with your lower term objectives. If you feel like, hey,
I've got to move a little bit off the table,
you know, fine, but I did sense panic in the
market on Friday. You know, you may be right. Panic
(28:43):
is not a plan of action. The plan of actions
should come before there is an event that would cause
you to sell it cause you to want to sell
in mass and we do that. We balanced February or
so February early March and completed that certainly before this
the volatility began. And you know, to our best of
(29:08):
our knowledge reviewing the accounts clients are in accordance with
their objectives. A course of action is to be available
via Zoom, in person or phones to answer any questions
that that our clients have on portfolio positions performance upon request.
So if your client listening and you have any questions,
you want to get together Zoom phone or in person.
Let us, know, you know, as a as a market moved.
(29:31):
I don't know where the market opens tomorrow.
Speaker 2 (29:33):
You know, maybe this is it.
Speaker 1 (29:34):
Maybe the market says, look, unemployments at four point two percent,
the United States is doing pretty well. You know, seventy
percent of America has contained. At some point in time,
the president is going to this is a negotiating tactic.
At some point in time, we're going to see, you know,
for the callers too, and this is a s food
for thought, you know, I think I think my biggest
(29:57):
concern is some of with the Arabs, but also with
the way that we we've treated our allies. And you
could say, hey, NATO needs to do it's their share
in this and that, you know, and I'm not I'm
not suggesting that some countries have taken advantage of to
a certain extent, but you know, we certainly have taken
advantage of other countries as well. I think the methodology
(30:21):
and again a caller may say, well, you're seeing sausage
be made. As an investor, I don't think the average investor,
the average company wants to see the sausage be made,
all right. I think the average investor wants to think
there's there's like two parents. There's continuity when you're speaking
to your to your to your son or daughter. Conversely,
(30:43):
when we're dealing with our Canadian you know, brothers, friends,
the EU. You know, by and large France UK that
we're we're you know, we are still allied. So my
biggest fear is that if we get off the global
stage economically and politically, that void is going to be failed.
(31:07):
And I'd rather be in control of the future and
control the dollar and control of things geopolitically. Then, you know,
everybody's greatest fear in my mind too, China steps into
that void and now as a bigger say in what
goes on globally. Look, you know if we if we
if we push too hard, then other countries are going
(31:28):
to look for alternatives to the US And think that's
my fear too, And I don't know. I often say
that this is this is like a bar fight. You know,
we controlled the first punch, and after that all hell
breaks loose, and who knows who controls the first punch
after that. So those are some things that I'm concerned
about when I think about the market today as opposed
(31:49):
to you know, a couple of months ago, you know,
what can I say? But so so continue along our
plan of action. But but again, if the market continues
to move lower, you know, it's to confolidate portfolios into
funds or companies that we believe will emerge from this uh,
(32:10):
this this time frame capable of competing on the global
stage and thriving on the global stage. However that morphs.
You know, you've got to be ready to have have
companies that to compete there. The other thing I was
saying in response to Paul a little bit, I wouldn't
say that, but Paul may be right. You know, if
(32:32):
Apple is manufacturing phones technology that American wants. But you know,
if if Americans feel like those phones got to be
thirty five hundred bucks rather than a thousand dollars, which
is where they are now, but would rather have them
produced here, amongst a lot of other things, I think
(32:52):
you're basically pricing yourself out of the global market. So
you may see Apple, you know, focus less on the US,
and again we're twenty seven twenty eight percent of global GDP,
so you know it's not going to be a small
decision that they would make. But maybe they focused less
on the US and more elsewhere. Maybe technology you know,
(33:13):
is developed elsewhere, technology which is really our bread and butter.
It's not making you know, socks and underwear. So all
those I firmly agree with Paul and Mike and probably
most of the listeners. Let's get that here. Let's build
the middle class. Let's build the middle class on the
backs of you know, bringing some manufacturing home and also
(33:36):
bringing uh and also you know, perhaps slowing down some
of the squeezing some of the profit margins of some
of our our larger company companies. But nothing comes without
a cost. And that's and I think, and again circling
back to my initial comments coming out of the break
was you know, I don't care how much and this
(33:59):
is our president. I don't care how much time Joe
Biden has our President Trump. That's not a concern of
mine or as an American. My concern is that, hey,
we've got to write the ship, and to write the ship.
I don't believe that abroad tariffs with the with the
with the right move and also just the calculation the
deficit as opposed to the total to the total imports,
(34:24):
and I think that came up to sixty seven percent
on China trade weighted tariffs in China about three percent.
President Trump comes to my break and you know had
thirty four percent. They have a minimum of a ten
percent of tariff on all countries and that's hard. You know,
we talk about Greenland all the time in the office,
and we talk about you know, rare earth minual minerals.
(34:47):
Let's say there were rare earth minerals we valued at
ten trillion dollars in Greenland and we bought all of them. Well,
we're gonna have a trade dept Greenland. Does that mean
because they have many people there, but because they're not
buying as much from us as we're buying from them,
does that mean that they should pay a large tariff? No,
(35:08):
America is the wealthiest country in the world, and it
stands to reason that we have a trade deficit. Now
that said again, you know, a level playing field is
is you know, generally speaking, is to be you know,
strived for. But I think you know, you also look
(35:28):
at countries that you know where a large percentage of
percentage of their GDP comes from one product, like you know,
some of the Caribbean countries or the South American countries.
You know that's say coffee, or bananas or this or that.
You know, it's a levey. A tariff of thirty or
forty percent is going to cause other feopolitical actions within
that country that we may not like. So, yeah, some
(35:50):
things cost us money, all things. And I think we
have a tendency to say, Okay, it's either it costs
us money, so we're being pillaged something. And again, you know,
I hope this comes out right. It's a price you
pay to be the leader on the global stage, you know,
And that's what that's what I'm concerned about with the market,
(36:10):
and specifically with the tariffs. I think that's what you know,
I find as an issue going forward if Canada now
looks to the EU for their oil and we need
their four million barrels of oil a day because we
can't refine enough of our own oil despite how much
we can drill to meet our needs, because we don't
have the refinery capacity here because they haven't built a
(36:32):
real sizeable refinery in probably thirty or forty years. So
those are some things that I think about every day
for our clients, you know. And before this week, I
was thinking things are going pretty good. You know, we're
working through this President Trumpell will levy tariffs and in
a reasonable manner. I think the market said it wasn't
our plan of action. Contact our clients, review portfolios, be available,
(36:56):
consolidate portfolios as they go down, and to help our
clients look past this environment to book two, three, four
years down the road, when cooler heads prevailed, you know,
we could snap back. And this is why I think,
you know, when you when you get out of the
market in its entirety, we could snap back in a
heartbeat and the market could be pushing up all time
(37:20):
highs again because it went down so much. And see
the other thing, too, is that there are some there
were some things that went on this past week, and
you know things that I do. You know that I
am quote unquote an expert. D Now, the market just
doesn't drop eight nine ten percent without a reason. Wall
Street does not want to drop eight nine ten percent.
And a reason that was a verdict on President Trump's tariffs.
(37:44):
Like it or not? All right, so it's down ten percent.
The question or the kind of pause, let's give this time,
or maybe it was Mike, let's give this time. I
asked him how long? Six months? All right? You know?
And in you know some you know the market. The
market has a tendency again doing this forty years. The
(38:07):
market humbles everybody, and at some point in time if
this is let's say what happens tomorrow, Tuesday, Wednesday. I
do think if I had a guess, and it is
a guess, because market moves kind of, it's a random walk.
To quote a book, I forget it, wrote Benjamin Graham.
I think random walked down wall streets. I think it
(38:28):
was Benim mcgrahams. You know, no one can predict which
way the market is going, but I will say that,
you know, I would expect uh, Burton Malchi excuse me, uh,
walk around and word a random what the will street.
I would expect the soft opening tomorrow and then probably
trying to, you know, gain a foundation in there because
(38:50):
the US economy is still strong. I do think over
the next month or two, Congress, which I would think, uh,
most of our listeners would want Congress to step in.
They should have the right to at least, you know,
have a say in these tariffs. You can say they're
ineffective or not ineffective. I will say, regardless, if it's
constitutionally provided, they should constitutionally have the right and the
(39:16):
ability to really control otherwise, you know, why have the
three branches of government? Right? So those are something wrong on.
But what I saw with the market this week from
an equity perspective, I saw down nine or ten percent.
The other thing too, is you know we were down
our clients on the stock side nine or ten percent.
What does that mean to me? It means that we're
(39:37):
correlated to the S and P five hundred, which is
a benchmark that you kind of want to be correlated to.
You also should take a look at what you're down
through the year. Your portfolio. Your stock side should be
down about thirteen or fourteen percent, because that's what the
S and P is down. If your stock portfolio is
down twenty percent, you're more correlated to the the as
that composite because that's what that's down. So maybe you
(39:57):
got too many of the go go companies in there.
You need to lighten up, I would say, too, would
I lighten up now? I would? I would, because we
don't know what's going to happen from this point in time.
Like anyone who says, hey I know this, I know
that I think is whistling past the graveyard. So so
(40:17):
so if if you you brought the equity exposure, but
you're find you're down twenty percent or so, lighten up.
You know, we like them. We like these companies. We
like Amazon, we like Meta, you know, we like We
bought some of c I d R on Friday, which
is which is an ETF is a cyber etfuh madzic
(40:37):
cybersecurity some of the largest cyber cybersecurity is not going
to stop now. They might have more trouble exporting your
software or there might be tariffs involved, so that could
be an issue. But if the United States is a
tech tech hub, so we're going to need cybersecurity here overall.
From from an all time high, you're you're talking S
and P five hundred down seventeen percent. Nazek is in
(40:59):
bear market territory down twenty two point seven three percent.
Russell two thousand, which is the second third thousand largest
American stocks, down twenty five percent. The transport's got hammered
because of slower I receive movement of goods, down twenty
five percent from its high. Utilities fared pretty well this
past week, down three point six percent, with the S
and P was down nine oh eight man's back down ten.
(41:22):
I'd be careful about, you know, moving into utilities here
too much. I think, you know, I think at some
point in time of next month or two, this will
break favorably. From what level. I don't know. I think
President Trump is you know, Penciege, stubborn person. Again. You
may say appropriately or not. It may say it's going
to work out in the long run. It is. But
(41:43):
when as as as if I'm the longer the uncertainty remains,
the longer the market will stay someone in limbo. So
the market obviously raised a yellow flag this past week.
I think, let me see here, what else raised the
yellow flag for me? Obviously declining over dancing stocks. There
were barely any of advancing stocks. Decliners out faced of
(42:06):
dancing stocks by probably sixteen or seventeen to one on
the New York Stock Exchange, and by you know, that
same amount pretty much on the on the NASDAC. Interest
rates came down, and I don't get too happy about
mortgage rates coming down because I think what we're gonna see,
(42:29):
not like it came down because there's lots of inventory
out there. Mortgage rates are coming down because and then
the that futures are projecting five rate cuts coming from
the FED. Mortgage rates came down, interest rates came down.
The ten year moved from four to twenty seven to
four oh one, the two year moved from three d
nine to three sixty eight because the poor tending of
(42:54):
the slowing economy. But I think that's what we saw there.
I am concerned about the dollar dollar weekend. The dollars
down about six percent from the close of last year,
and it will make things more expensive home, more competitive abroad,
(43:14):
somewhat inflationary, and then bullish sentiment is very low. I'm
sure it'll go down again. That's a contrarian indicator. And
like I said, mortgage rates have headed headed headed down,
and I think again it's gonna be more. It's more
indicative of the slowing economy than Hey, this is good news.
And also I hope you know, you know what we
(43:35):
got a few minutes left are some of the things
I want to put it quick. And I think you
got to be where the doom sayers come in out
of the woodwork. I think that there's uh as far
as the US economy, as far as I think the
jury's out. The jury's out on the number front. What
what's President Trump going to do, what's the impact going
(43:56):
to be on the economy? How long will this last?
What will other countries do, will they form form longer
term economic and geopolitical alliances? If things like that that
I think are going to take a while to potentially
play out, So it leaves room for doom stayers. I
(44:16):
think to write off America is a is a big mistake,
and I would not be doing it here. I just
think at this point in time, you just want to
be a little bit plus. I also think that and
just going back to you know what what what Paul said,
It's funny how we get labels Wall Street, you know,
(44:40):
as a label of negativity. I would hope Fagan Associates doesn't.
You know, we might be affiliated with the Financial Services Actor.
But I would be a Paul if I thought people
didn't think that we were putting our best foot forward
every time we met with them or worked with their portfolio,
talked on the radio, or and gave our candid thoughts.
You know, people say, well, people say honestly. Yeah, I
(45:01):
hope you realize. I hope people realize you should always
be honest, you know, I try to be candid with
with the listeners, not just honest, you know, so I
think you could, you know, I think. So what I'm
saying is is that, you know, we got to be
careful not to label Wall Street as negative or President
Trump as negative, or the left or the right as
(45:23):
bad or good. And why I'm saying that is, you know,
I think when when you you're ignoring the fact that
there are there are many people on the right, and
more people on the right, I would think, and not
not in the right, more people on Wall Street that
you thought were left that that voted President Trump called.
I mean, look at look at his who was on
(45:45):
stage with him, you know, you know, Mark Zuckerberg, Eli Musk,
all the leaders in the industry. So Wall Street wants
President Trump to do well, and they were decidedly negative
on this, you know. So that's the bottom line. And
then I think it's hubris to say, well, everyone's wrong,
and I'm right. I think at that point in time,
(46:07):
you know, the market can the market continues to go down,
you can't just say, well, we've got to give more time.
You've got to give more time. And no, you know, yes,
you should give more time. Don't get me wrong. But
he's got to kind of I think, you know, keed
this movement and respond to it and not just say
you know, this is the way it is and it's
(46:29):
going to be this way forever, because every every time
that's the last word, I think, you know, Wall Street
will continue to uh have a lot of trouble making
any headways. You know, I talked about a little bit
about the cost of production. If you look at labor, transportation, materials,
taxes and tariffs, financing, the geopolitical environment, the preservation or
(46:51):
protection of intellectual property, look at infrastructure, the regulatory environment,
the company countries, companies operate in, where their end markets are,
the transparency, the financial market. Those all go into where
country companies decide to to put their factories. And I think,
you know, that's going to be a bigger decision moving forward,
(47:13):
going forward than it might have been, you know, you
know last week, you know, and there will be this
is an earthquake, there will be after shocks to this.
Let me see, but like I said, this could be
this could have longer lasting impact than we think, or
could get a snap back rally. I just I just
wouldn't I wouldn't, you know, I wouldn't you know, wouldn't
(47:36):
make wholesale moves with a portfolio, you need to make
incremental moves because incremental moves typically do typically work well
over the wall wall like anything else in life. I
hope you enjoyed the show. I try not to have
any type of politicallyings interfere with our ability to do
our job. We are sticking within the parameters of our
(47:57):
mutually agreed upon contrast with our clients and and we
do see some optimism in amidst the rubble. Thanks for
listening and feel free to give us called during the
week five one, eight, two, seven, nine, ten, forty four.
Check us on the websfigan aff it dot com
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