Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Move on to the latest Erneste manifesto, our official economist
of kaab's morning News, doctor Ernie Goss of creating university
to provide calm in the midst of the tariff and
market storm. Ernie, good morning, Good.
Speaker 2 (00:15):
Morning, Garytee, you and your team, You got good David
with us.
Speaker 1 (00:18):
Uh, what do you make of this three day plunge
and now, at least in the pre market. Uh, if
we if we're focused on the stock market, it's up
huge today and of course the tariff issue is causing
all kinds of turmoil. What do you make of all
of it?
Speaker 2 (00:35):
Well, it's we're we're going to see more of that, Gary,
the fear gauge, as the financial fear gauge, the VIX
is up to this highest level since the pandemic, and
just too much uncertainty out there right now, especially with
China threatening even more tears, tears upon tears, and of
course that's not good news for us are for China
that we'll see some negative outcomes from that if we
(00:56):
continue along this path.
Speaker 1 (01:00):
All are buying into this dip, now, aren't they. That's
probably what drives this that serge this morning.
Speaker 2 (01:08):
Absolutely what we saw in the first quarter. You look
at Atlanta GDP. Now they the index, the GDP dropped
to below below zero negative territory because of the imports.
In other words, there record imports of gold from Great
Britain and that was because of the peer of teriffs.
Speaker 1 (01:28):
Ernie gossw with us here this morning. Ernie, what I know,
we've talked a couple of times about this already. You're
no fan of tariffs to begin with. What Trump is
trying to do here and his Commerce secretary of Lutnik
really emphasized it the other day, is we've got to
get back to some kind of balance. We had a
(01:50):
trillion dollar trade deficit with China, billions with other countries,
and we could be headed for the cliff without doing
something drastic. What would be your to these deficits.
Speaker 2 (02:03):
What we need to see, of course, is negotiation and
moving overall tariff's lower for everybody. That would be a solution,
moving those tariffs. So if we see a blink among
our trading partners, particularly Mexico, China and Canada, if we
saw the blinking there, that would be very good news
and we would all and we'd see higher growth for all.
(02:23):
But as long as we move down this path with
higher and hire tariffs, It's going to be bad for everybody.
It's a lose lose situation.
Speaker 3 (02:31):
Ernie, what do you think is going to happen? Because
you're getting now two distinct arguments, and only President Trump
knows this or maybe some of his closest advisors. You
can't have both. You can't bring back American manufacturing okay,
which is something he has professed for years, for decades.
And lower tariffs because ideally, if you cut a deal
(02:53):
to lower tariffs, that means the status quo days in
place minus the tariffs, which is going to happen.
Speaker 2 (03:01):
Well, we're going to continue to lose those those businesses,
those factories that we have a competitive disadvantage, and that's
not such a bad thing. Do you really want to
bring back baseball production to the US? No, Those who
come from Costa Rica will will grow soybean in trade
for those baseballs, will trade for those bananas from Guatemala.
(03:21):
That's what we do. Let's do what we do best.
Speaker 1 (03:25):
Yeah. But one of the things Trump's trying to do
with China is force them to stop exporting the precursor
for fentanyl, which apparently they make a ton of money
on exporting New Mexico and then they fall into the
hands of these of these drug lords. And China doesn't
(03:45):
want to do that, they said, you know, they won't
say it out loud, they said, well, no, we don't
do much of that. We're not, but they don't want
they don't want to lose that source of income over there.
Speaker 2 (03:56):
That's a problem that certainly is a problem here. And
what we need to see, of course, is we need
to see low again lower tarish for all. Look at
what's going on to be a consumer in China. I mean,
this export policy that China's pursued is not good for
the Chinese consumer. If you look at the products we
(04:17):
have on our shelves and look at the products they
have on their shelves, there are twenty percentage points lower
in terms of consumption than we are. So we're doing
quite well with all the products we have on our shelves.
We are, I think we're still we lead the globe
in terms of economic growth. Where we may be the
healthiest patient in the IC and IT, but we are there.
Speaker 1 (04:38):
Well health healthy as horse Foo dog food factory.
Speaker 3 (04:42):
Now, Ernie, what about China's consumptive ratios. We heard over
the weekend and Marco Rubio was the first to say it,
and it's been repeated, and that is China doesn't consume anything.
They just make things and ship them to the United States.
How true is that?
Speaker 2 (05:01):
That's very true. Their consumption rate is like forty five percent,
hours is sixty five to seventy percent. Another to enjoy,
We enjoy the fruits of their work in the sense
I mean, when do you ever get when do you
ever get angry at your businesses for selling you something cheap? Well,
they're selling us something cheap, and it is helping us.
(05:21):
It helps the American consumer. We're benefiting from that, and
we sell them things that we're good at. We're good
at farm products, we're good at manufacturing in a certain
mini manufacturing industries.
Speaker 1 (05:33):
What about the theory we need just for national security
purposes to bring pharmaceutical manufacturing back to the US and
microchip factory manufacturing back to the US, and these companies
that manufacture these goods will come back, will come to
the United States and build here out of possibly a
(05:57):
bit of a sense of patriotism, but more likely out
of US sense of economic health because they won't have
to pay a tariff.
Speaker 2 (06:04):
Well, how did that work out for the Biden administration?
The chipsack built millions of dollars for Intel, and did
they have they expanded in the US?
Speaker 1 (06:13):
No?
Speaker 2 (06:14):
I mean, that's not a good policy in my judgment.
I think we have we have the best economy to
be in on the globe, and those companies will be
will come back irrespective of these tariffs.
Speaker 3 (06:27):
Well, well, wait a minute, give it. I mean, I
think Joe Biden's presidency was one of the worst ones
in the last one hundred and fifty years. But give
them a chance to build the chip factories or any
the chip sack was approved in what twenty twenty two?
I think, And I don't think you can throw these
things up like a fruit stand. It takes a while
to build one and get it fully online, does it not?
Speaker 2 (06:49):
It does, And I don't see that movement taking place.
I think we again produce what we are best at
and our economy will take care of itself. These tariffs again. Now,
I have to say, if this is a negotiating strategy
on the part of President Trump and a good deal,
in other words, if he negotiates overall lower tariffs across
the Globe. I will salute him and the policy is
(07:12):
a success.
Speaker 1 (07:14):
Ernie, thanks always great to have you on. I have
a wonderful day. Always good for you bet
Move on to the latest Erneste manifesto, our official economist
of kaab's morning News, doctor Ernie Goss of creating university
to provide calm in the midst of the tariff and
market storm. Ernie, good morning, Good.
Speaker 2 (00:15):
Morning, Garytee, you and your team, You got good David
with us.
Speaker 1 (00:18):
Uh, what do you make of this three day plunge
and now, at least in the pre market. Uh, if
we if we're focused on the stock market, it's up
huge today and of course the tariff issue is causing
all kinds of turmoil. What do you make of all
of it?
Speaker 2 (00:35):
Well, it's we're we're going to see more of that, Gary,
the fear gauge, as the financial fear gauge, the VIX
is up to this highest level since the pandemic, and
just too much uncertainty out there right now, especially with
China threatening even more tears, tears upon tears, and of
course that's not good news for us are for China
that we'll see some negative outcomes from that if we
(00:56):
continue along this path.
Speaker 1 (01:00):
All are buying into this dip, now, aren't they. That's
probably what drives this that serge this morning.
Speaker 2 (01:08):
Absolutely what we saw in the first quarter. You look
at Atlanta GDP. Now they the index, the GDP dropped
to below below zero negative territory because of the imports.
In other words, there record imports of gold from Great
Britain and that was because of the peer of teriffs.
Speaker 1 (01:28):
Ernie gossw with us here this morning. Ernie, what I know,
we've talked a couple of times about this already. You're
no fan of tariffs to begin with. What Trump is
trying to do here and his Commerce secretary of Lutnik
really emphasized it the other day, is we've got to
get back to some kind of balance. We had a
(01:50):
trillion dollar trade deficit with China, billions with other countries,
and we could be headed for the cliff without doing
something drastic. What would be your to these deficits.
Speaker 2 (02:03):
What we need to see, of course, is negotiation and
moving overall tariff's lower for everybody. That would be a solution,
moving those tariffs. So if we see a blink among
our trading partners, particularly Mexico, China and Canada, if we
saw the blinking there, that would be very good news
and we would all and we'd see higher growth for all.
(02:23):
But as long as we move down this path with
higher and hire tariffs, It's going to be bad for everybody.
It's a lose lose situation.
Speaker 3 (02:31):
Ernie, what do you think is going to happen? Because
you're getting now two distinct arguments, and only President Trump
knows this or maybe some of his closest advisors. You
can't have both. You can't bring back American manufacturing okay,
which is something he has professed for years, for decades.
And lower tariffs because ideally, if you cut a deal
(02:53):
to lower tariffs, that means the status quo days in
place minus the tariffs, which is going to happen.
Speaker 2 (03:01):
Well, we're going to continue to lose those those businesses,
those factories that we have a competitive disadvantage, and that's
not such a bad thing. Do you really want to
bring back baseball production to the US? No, Those who
come from Costa Rica will will grow soybean in trade
for those baseballs, will trade for those bananas from Guatemala.
(03:21):
That's what we do. Let's do what we do best.
Speaker 1 (03:25):
Yeah. But one of the things Trump's trying to do
with China is force them to stop exporting the precursor
for fentanyl, which apparently they make a ton of money
on exporting New Mexico and then they fall into the
hands of these of these drug lords. And China doesn't
(03:45):
want to do that, they said, you know, they won't
say it out loud, they said, well, no, we don't
do much of that. We're not, but they don't want
they don't want to lose that source of income over there.
Speaker 2 (03:56):
That's a problem that certainly is a problem here. And
what we need to see, of course, is we need
to see low again lower tarish for all. Look at
what's going on to be a consumer in China. I mean,
this export policy that China's pursued is not good for
the Chinese consumer. If you look at the products we
(04:17):
have on our shelves and look at the products they
have on their shelves, there are twenty percentage points lower
in terms of consumption than we are. So we're doing
quite well with all the products we have on our shelves.
We are, I think we're still we lead the globe
in terms of economic growth. Where we may be the
healthiest patient in the IC and IT, but we are there.
Speaker 1 (04:38):
Well health healthy as horse Foo dog food factory.
Speaker 3 (04:42):
Now, Ernie, what about China's consumptive ratios. We heard over
the weekend and Marco Rubio was the first to say it,
and it's been repeated, and that is China doesn't consume anything.
They just make things and ship them to the United States.
How true is that?
Speaker 2 (05:01):
That's very true. Their consumption rate is like forty five percent,
hours is sixty five to seventy percent. Another to enjoy,
We enjoy the fruits of their work in the sense
I mean, when do you ever get when do you
ever get angry at your businesses for selling you something cheap? Well,
they're selling us something cheap, and it is helping us.
(05:21):
It helps the American consumer. We're benefiting from that, and
we sell them things that we're good at. We're good
at farm products, we're good at manufacturing in a certain
mini manufacturing industries.
Speaker 1 (05:33):
What about the theory we need just for national security
purposes to bring pharmaceutical manufacturing back to the US and
microchip factory manufacturing back to the US, and these companies
that manufacture these goods will come back, will come to
the United States and build here out of possibly a
(05:57):
bit of a sense of patriotism, but more likely out
of US sense of economic health because they won't have
to pay a tariff.
Speaker 2 (06:04):
Well, how did that work out for the Biden administration?
The chipsack built millions of dollars for Intel, and did
they have they expanded in the US?
Speaker 1 (06:13):
No?
Speaker 2 (06:14):
I mean, that's not a good policy in my judgment.
I think we have we have the best economy to
be in on the globe, and those companies will be
will come back irrespective of these tariffs.
Speaker 3 (06:27):
Well, well, wait a minute, give it. I mean, I
think Joe Biden's presidency was one of the worst ones
in the last one hundred and fifty years. But give
them a chance to build the chip factories or any
the chip sack was approved in what twenty twenty two?
I think, And I don't think you can throw these
things up like a fruit stand. It takes a while
to build one and get it fully online, does it not?
Speaker 2 (06:49):
It does, And I don't see that movement taking place.
I think we again produce what we are best at
and our economy will take care of itself. These tariffs again. Now,
I have to say, if this is a negotiating strategy
on the part of President Trump and a good deal,
in other words, if he negotiates overall lower tariffs across
the Globe. I will salute him and the policy is
(07:12):
a success.
Speaker 1 (07:14):
Ernie, thanks always great to have you on. I have
a wonderful day. Always good for you bet
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