Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Let's do this.
Speaker 2 (00:00):
We got about ten minutes now with my good friend
Steve Moore. He is the chief economist of the Ross
Kaminski Show. Steve is actually one of my oldest friends.
I've known Steve since I think the late eighties and
was around when he started the Club for Growth, and
he's you know, at Heritage and all over the place.
(00:23):
And Steve has written a bunch of books, and he's
an economic advisor to Donald Trump.
Speaker 3 (00:28):
So Hi, Steve, Hey, Ross, it's so great to be
with you. And by the way, you are my fiscal consent.
So whenever I swerved away from free market economics, you're
always there help me to get back in line. So
and I've appreciated our.
Speaker 1 (00:43):
Friendship over the years.
Speaker 3 (00:45):
I look, I'm feeling really really good about the direction
of where things are headed in Washington right now. I
think Trump has got his game base on. He's got
the Democrats or you know, in circles. In fact, there
there's a little cute cartoon in our in our hotline
this morning. I hope everyone's getting that. That's just go
to unleash Prosperity dot com and.
Speaker 1 (01:04):
You can get it for free. But it's a it's
a it's.
Speaker 3 (01:06):
Two donkeys behind the wheel, you know, in the front
seat of a car, and and the car is going
around and around in circles, and the one donkey says
the other, Well, the GPS system just keeps telling us
to turn loft. I think that's what's going on with
the Democrats. But anyway, you can tell I'm in a
good mood because yeah, we're at the beginning of a
real economic renaissance in this country.
Speaker 1 (01:28):
Okay, I have I.
Speaker 2 (01:29):
Have lots of questions for you, so give me relatively
short answers because we don't have much time. So first
of all, let me say I do get the Unleashed
Prosperity hotline.
Speaker 3 (01:39):
Every day, and folks you should too.
Speaker 2 (01:42):
Unleash prosperity dot com and sign up and it's free
and it's full of great economic stories in bite sized pieces.
I was very I actually said out loud when I
read your note today, Steve, I'm proud of you because
you you wrote a note saying that you strongly opposed
Trump's steel and aluminum tariffs.
Speaker 3 (02:03):
So they do.
Speaker 2 (02:04):
Yeah, let me just finish the sentence and then you
can either answer in the micro about the tariffs or
in the macro or both. I think Trump has an
extremely pro growth economic policy, all of which could be
overwhelmed and wrecked if he gets into a full fledged
worldwide trade war.
Speaker 3 (02:26):
Well, I think that is a risk, and I do
oppose the steel terraces. I think they're dumb because they
know if we want to create jobs in America. We
tried this in the first term Ross, as you know,
and what happened was we saved a couple thousand steel
jobs and we lost tens of thousands of manufacturing jobs
because guess what, all our manufacturers are using steel to
(02:48):
produce what they produce, like the cow companies, and it
made it more expensive, and so we lost competitive advantage
with other countries. And so the steel terriffts and the
aluminum terrafts are just a bad idea. Even if you
believe in protectionism, it didn't work. It actually costs us
more jobs.
Speaker 1 (03:05):
But I am, I mean, I.
Speaker 3 (03:07):
Am very intrigued by the idea of the reciprocal tariffs
because I think if this works, where Trump is saying
to the rest of the world, do you want to
trade with us? We're the biggest market. Every country in
the world has to trade in the United States, we're
the alpha male. We're the only country that really matters
in the world. Everybody else's spoke, and so we're saying
(03:30):
to China, we're saying to Japan, We're saying to Europe,
We're saying to Canada, if you don't lower your terrorists,
we're going to raise ours on you. And I believe
that by using America's leverage and our power in the
world economy, that what's going to happen at the end
of the day, Ross is, I believe these countries will
be forced to reduce their terrorists and we will therefore
(03:51):
have feer and fairer trade. So what do you say
about that?
Speaker 2 (03:56):
I think, I think it's not a crazy negotiation to attempt.
My fear is that Trump will try it as a
negotiating tactic, and partly because of the big political power
that a lot of these groups have in their home countries,
right farmers or dairy manufacturers or whatever. In France, the
(04:21):
French president will not cave in because the domestic pressure
will be too high, and then we'll start putting on
stuff here. And you know, well, and I'm trying to
educate my listeners that tariffs are a penalty on the
American consumer, and so I think it's.
Speaker 3 (04:37):
Worth a try.
Speaker 2 (04:38):
But my fear is that it won't that in some
cases it won't work as a negotiation tactic, and he'll
do it anyway.
Speaker 3 (04:46):
So, I mean, he raised a very good point, ros
I mean, and I think that's the argument against the
reciprocal because you know, in fact, that was just the
reason I was a few minutes late for your show,
is that was my mutual buddy out the Lapper, the
best economists in the world, and you know, he was
saying and someone asked him the same question that I
asked you, and he said, well, look, if other countries
are going to engage in a suicide pact, there's something
(05:07):
we can really do about it.
Speaker 1 (05:09):
I mean, he agreed.
Speaker 3 (05:11):
Europe is going to be tough because Europe is so
protectionists compared to US, and they may not want to
give up their terrorists. And I think Trump will move
forward with hire terrorists on them, but if the pain
threshold gets too high, I do think they'll change, but
it is a risk.
Speaker 1 (05:26):
I agree with you.
Speaker 2 (05:27):
Okay, so let's move on. Let's move on from tariff.
So you're not just an economist And what I mean
by that is you understand and have been around politics
and politicians more than probably any economist I know. And
so what I want to ask you about is how
(05:47):
you see stuff progressing through Congress. The House Republicans did
pass a bill last night, and I'm not going to
take the time to go through the details, but tell
us how you see the budget process proceeding.
Speaker 3 (06:02):
Well, Look, the most important thing for our country right now,
and everything else is sort of secondary.
Speaker 1 (06:07):
Is we have to have to have to make the.
Speaker 3 (06:10):
Trump tax cut permanent. It was a huge stimulus to
the economy. If we don't pass this, the average family
in Colorado is going to face a three thousand.
Speaker 1 (06:19):
Dollars tax increase next year.
Speaker 3 (06:20):
It will be economically and politically catastrophic if we do
not get this tax cut done. And again, what I'm
saying again loud and clear, if it doesn't get done,
everybody's taxes.
Speaker 1 (06:31):
Are going up next year.
Speaker 3 (06:33):
So what worries me is that some of my most
conservative friends, and these are friends of mine, people who
I admired greatly, are saying we're going to hold the
tax cut hostage until we get the Congress to agree
to these budget cuts. I don't like that strategy. I
think it is it is dangerous, because let's get the
(06:53):
tax cut done right now, for goodness sakes. I mean, look,
the guy who has a fifty four percent approved rating,
he's got the wind in his back, he's got incredible
political capital. The Democrats are in dis array. What the
hell are we waiting for? Get the tax cuts done now,
have a bill that makes them permanent and puts that
into law, and then we can have a big debate
about what we're going to do about the budget. That's
my view.
Speaker 2 (07:15):
Okay, so I'm sort of half with you. I'm absolutely
with you that the tax cuts, that extending them, we're
making them permit, is incredibly important, and that the Democrats
have been lying for all these years about who the
tax cuts are going to, and the majority of Americans,
large majority of Americans got tax cuts. My concern is
(07:39):
that our deficit and our debt are unacceptable, and I'm
worried that if we only if we do the tax
cut first, especially because I don't think Donald Trump cares
a lot about about spending cuts. He cares about efficiency,
and he's doing the doge thing, but he's never really
expressed a lot of interest in entitlement reform and really
(08:02):
to go where the money is.
Speaker 1 (08:03):
I think if we do.
Speaker 2 (08:04):
The tax cuts by themselves, we may end up in
an even worse deficit situation and the bond market might
start punishing us.
Speaker 3 (08:14):
Well, those those are all good points.
Speaker 1 (08:16):
I mean, I can't argue with that.
Speaker 3 (08:17):
What I'm saying is, let's get the tax cut done,
because look the task cuts you know, eccentral. Look, if
you want to get the debt under control and deficit
under control, the single most important thing to do, even
more than entitlement reforms and so on, is you've got
to get the economic growth rate up to three percent.
If we don't get the economic growth rate up, you're
not going to get the revenues to bring the deficit
(08:39):
down period hard stop. So anything that it mays the
economy grow faster is good for a deficit reduction. Anything
that makes the economy grow smaller is going to make the.
Speaker 1 (08:50):
Debt situation worse.
Speaker 3 (08:52):
And that's the lesson I keep pounding these Republicans. Growth
is everything. I'll tell you. If you get growth rate
up to three percent, we start bending that curve down
on the debt. But I look, you're not going to
talk to anybody on your radio show and the next
year that wants to cut government spending more than I do.
So I'm in favor of both of these things. And
(09:13):
the other thing is you want to fix so security.
Starting tomorrow, every single young worker in America should be
able to take ten percent of their paycheck and send
it instead of sending in a solid security it goes
into a four to one K plan. Ross. I turned
sixty five in two days. I will be technically eligible
for solid security. If I had been able to put
my money into a four to one k plan and
(09:33):
indext onun instead of getting a crappy three thousand dollars
a month, I'd be getting twelve thousand dollars a month.
So the problem with self security is not that the
benefits are too high. They're way, way, way way too low. Folks.
Solid security is the worst investment you ever made in
your life.
Speaker 2 (09:50):
So last quick question for you, and I'm just about
out of time, so.
Speaker 1 (09:53):
Do make your answer quick.
Speaker 3 (09:54):
Okay.
Speaker 2 (09:56):
I think republic the sort of the left w of
the Republican Party in Congress and the right wing of
the Republican Party in Congress probably both know that they
cannot have a situation where Democrat votes are needed to
get something passed, because then whatever passes will be a
complete disaster. And I'm cautiously optimistic that relatively liberal Republicans
(10:23):
like lawl Are from New York and conservatives like Chip
Roy from Texas are going to find a way to
agree on something because politically they have to.
Speaker 1 (10:31):
What do you think?
Speaker 3 (10:33):
I hope so? Yeah, I think so. I think that
the party knows that we have to.
Speaker 1 (10:37):
Look.
Speaker 3 (10:38):
The Doose Commission Committee is the most amazing thing. I mean,
they are showing hundreds and hundreds of billions of dollars
of waste and efficiency. I think this is a great
way to just expose to the American people how your
tax dollars in Washington are spent. I think has created
a culture where Americans can say, yes, we can cut
one trillion dollars out of this federal budget. Most Americans
(11:01):
will not feel any pain from that. We're not going
to talking about cutting your soci security or Medicare benefits.
We're talking about stopping the fraud and waste in our budget,
which is enormous. So I'm I'm very optimistic that that
will happen.
Speaker 2 (11:15):
Steve Moore is the founder of the Club for Growth,
Senior Visiting Fellow and Economics at the Heritage Foundation, and
one of my oldest friends.
Speaker 3 (11:21):
Great to talk to you, Steve.
Speaker 1 (11:22):
Thanks for doing this.
Speaker 3 (11:24):
Okay, Ross, have a great weekend and Happy Valentine's Day
to everybody. Yep, same to you.
Let's do this.
Speaker 2 (00:00):
We got about ten minutes now with my good friend
Steve Moore. He is the chief economist of the Ross
Kaminski Show. Steve is actually one of my oldest friends.
I've known Steve since I think the late eighties and
was around when he started the Club for Growth, and
he's you know, at Heritage and all over the place.
(00:23):
And Steve has written a bunch of books, and he's
an economic advisor to Donald Trump.
Speaker 3 (00:28):
So Hi, Steve, Hey, Ross, it's so great to be
with you. And by the way, you are my fiscal consent.
So whenever I swerved away from free market economics, you're
always there help me to get back in line. So
and I've appreciated our.
Speaker 1 (00:43):
Friendship over the years.
Speaker 3 (00:45):
I look, I'm feeling really really good about the direction
of where things are headed in Washington right now. I
think Trump has got his game base on. He's got
the Democrats or you know, in circles. In fact, there
there's a little cute cartoon in our in our hotline
this morning. I hope everyone's getting that. That's just go
to unleash Prosperity dot com and.
Speaker 1 (01:04):
You can get it for free. But it's a it's
a it's.
Speaker 3 (01:06):
Two donkeys behind the wheel, you know, in the front
seat of a car, and and the car is going
around and around in circles, and the one donkey says
the other, Well, the GPS system just keeps telling us
to turn loft. I think that's what's going on with
the Democrats. But anyway, you can tell I'm in a
good mood because yeah, we're at the beginning of a
real economic renaissance in this country.
Speaker 1 (01:28):
Okay, I have I.
Speaker 2 (01:29):
Have lots of questions for you, so give me relatively
short answers because we don't have much time. So first
of all, let me say I do get the Unleashed
Prosperity hotline.
Speaker 3 (01:39):
Every day, and folks you should too.
Speaker 2 (01:42):
Unleash prosperity dot com and sign up and it's free
and it's full of great economic stories in bite sized pieces.
I was very I actually said out loud when I
read your note today, Steve, I'm proud of you because
you you wrote a note saying that you strongly opposed
Trump's steel and aluminum tariffs.
Speaker 3 (02:03):
So they do.
Speaker 2 (02:04):
Yeah, let me just finish the sentence and then you
can either answer in the micro about the tariffs or
in the macro or both. I think Trump has an
extremely pro growth economic policy, all of which could be
overwhelmed and wrecked if he gets into a full fledged
worldwide trade war.
Speaker 3 (02:26):
Well, I think that is a risk, and I do
oppose the steel terraces. I think they're dumb because they
know if we want to create jobs in America. We
tried this in the first term Ross, as you know,
and what happened was we saved a couple thousand steel
jobs and we lost tens of thousands of manufacturing jobs
because guess what, all our manufacturers are using steel to
(02:48):
produce what they produce, like the cow companies, and it
made it more expensive, and so we lost competitive advantage
with other countries. And so the steel terriffts and the
aluminum terrafts are just a bad idea. Even if you
believe in protectionism, it didn't work. It actually costs us
more jobs.
Speaker 1 (03:05):
But I am, I mean, I.
Speaker 3 (03:07):
Am very intrigued by the idea of the reciprocal tariffs
because I think if this works, where Trump is saying
to the rest of the world, do you want to
trade with us? We're the biggest market. Every country in
the world has to trade in the United States, we're
the alpha male. We're the only country that really matters
in the world. Everybody else's spoke, and so we're saying
(03:30):
to China, we're saying to Japan, We're saying to Europe,
We're saying to Canada, if you don't lower your terrorists,
we're going to raise ours on you. And I believe
that by using America's leverage and our power in the
world economy, that what's going to happen at the end
of the day, Ross is, I believe these countries will
be forced to reduce their terrorists and we will therefore
(03:51):
have feer and fairer trade. So what do you say
about that?
Speaker 2 (03:56):
I think, I think it's not a crazy negotiation to attempt.
My fear is that Trump will try it as a
negotiating tactic, and partly because of the big political power
that a lot of these groups have in their home countries,
right farmers or dairy manufacturers or whatever. In France, the
(04:21):
French president will not cave in because the domestic pressure
will be too high, and then we'll start putting on
stuff here. And you know, well, and I'm trying to
educate my listeners that tariffs are a penalty on the
American consumer, and so I think it's.
Speaker 3 (04:37):
Worth a try.
Speaker 2 (04:38):
But my fear is that it won't that in some
cases it won't work as a negotiation tactic, and he'll
do it anyway.
Speaker 3 (04:46):
So, I mean, he raised a very good point, ros
I mean, and I think that's the argument against the
reciprocal because you know, in fact, that was just the
reason I was a few minutes late for your show,
is that was my mutual buddy out the Lapper, the
best economists in the world, and you know, he was
saying and someone asked him the same question that I
asked you, and he said, well, look, if other countries
are going to engage in a suicide pact, there's something
(05:07):
we can really do about it.
Speaker 1 (05:09):
I mean, he agreed.
Speaker 3 (05:11):
Europe is going to be tough because Europe is so
protectionists compared to US, and they may not want to
give up their terrorists. And I think Trump will move
forward with hire terrorists on them, but if the pain
threshold gets too high, I do think they'll change, but
it is a risk.
Speaker 1 (05:26):
I agree with you.
Speaker 2 (05:27):
Okay, so let's move on. Let's move on from tariff.
So you're not just an economist And what I mean
by that is you understand and have been around politics
and politicians more than probably any economist I know. And
so what I want to ask you about is how
(05:47):
you see stuff progressing through Congress. The House Republicans did
pass a bill last night, and I'm not going to
take the time to go through the details, but tell
us how you see the budget process proceeding.
Speaker 3 (06:02):
Well, Look, the most important thing for our country right now,
and everything else is sort of secondary.
Speaker 1 (06:07):
Is we have to have to have to make the.
Speaker 3 (06:10):
Trump tax cut permanent. It was a huge stimulus to
the economy. If we don't pass this, the average family
in Colorado is going to face a three thousand.
Speaker 1 (06:19):
Dollars tax increase next year.
Speaker 3 (06:20):
It will be economically and politically catastrophic if we do
not get this tax cut done. And again, what I'm
saying again loud and clear, if it doesn't get done,
everybody's taxes.
Speaker 1 (06:31):
Are going up next year.
Speaker 3 (06:33):
So what worries me is that some of my most
conservative friends, and these are friends of mine, people who
I admired greatly, are saying we're going to hold the
tax cut hostage until we get the Congress to agree
to these budget cuts. I don't like that strategy. I
think it is it is dangerous, because let's get the
(06:53):
tax cut done right now, for goodness sakes. I mean, look,
the guy who has a fifty four percent approved rating,
he's got the wind in his back, he's got incredible
political capital. The Democrats are in dis array. What the
hell are we waiting for? Get the tax cuts done now,
have a bill that makes them permanent and puts that
into law, and then we can have a big debate
about what we're going to do about the budget. That's
my view.
Speaker 2 (07:15):
Okay, so I'm sort of half with you. I'm absolutely
with you that the tax cuts, that extending them, we're
making them permit, is incredibly important, and that the Democrats
have been lying for all these years about who the
tax cuts are going to, and the majority of Americans,
large majority of Americans got tax cuts. My concern is
(07:39):
that our deficit and our debt are unacceptable, and I'm
worried that if we only if we do the tax
cut first, especially because I don't think Donald Trump cares
a lot about about spending cuts. He cares about efficiency,
and he's doing the doge thing, but he's never really
expressed a lot of interest in entitlement reform and really
(08:02):
to go where the money is.
Speaker 1 (08:03):
I think if we do.
Speaker 2 (08:04):
The tax cuts by themselves, we may end up in
an even worse deficit situation and the bond market might
start punishing us.
Speaker 3 (08:14):
Well, those those are all good points.
Speaker 1 (08:16):
I mean, I can't argue with that.
Speaker 3 (08:17):
What I'm saying is, let's get the tax cut done,
because look the task cuts you know, eccentral. Look, if
you want to get the debt under control and deficit
under control, the single most important thing to do, even
more than entitlement reforms and so on, is you've got
to get the economic growth rate up to three percent.
If we don't get the economic growth rate up, you're
not going to get the revenues to bring the deficit
(08:39):
down period hard stop. So anything that it mays the
economy grow faster is good for a deficit reduction. Anything
that makes the economy grow smaller is going to make the.
Speaker 1 (08:50):
Debt situation worse.
Speaker 3 (08:52):
And that's the lesson I keep pounding these Republicans. Growth
is everything. I'll tell you. If you get growth rate
up to three percent, we start bending that curve down
on the debt. But I look, you're not going to
talk to anybody on your radio show and the next
year that wants to cut government spending more than I do.
So I'm in favor of both of these things. And
(09:13):
the other thing is you want to fix so security.
Starting tomorrow, every single young worker in America should be
able to take ten percent of their paycheck and send
it instead of sending in a solid security it goes
into a four to one K plan. Ross. I turned
sixty five in two days. I will be technically eligible
for solid security. If I had been able to put
my money into a four to one k plan and
(09:33):
indext onun instead of getting a crappy three thousand dollars
a month, I'd be getting twelve thousand dollars a month.
So the problem with self security is not that the
benefits are too high. They're way, way, way way too low. Folks.
Solid security is the worst investment you ever made in
your life.
Speaker 2 (09:50):
So last quick question for you, and I'm just about
out of time, so.
Speaker 1 (09:53):
Do make your answer quick.
Speaker 3 (09:54):
Okay.
Speaker 2 (09:56):
I think republic the sort of the left w of
the Republican Party in Congress and the right wing of
the Republican Party in Congress probably both know that they
cannot have a situation where Democrat votes are needed to
get something passed, because then whatever passes will be a
complete disaster. And I'm cautiously optimistic that relatively liberal Republicans
(10:23):
like lawl Are from New York and conservatives like Chip
Roy from Texas are going to find a way to
agree on something because politically they have to.
Speaker 1 (10:31):
What do you think?
Speaker 3 (10:33):
I hope so? Yeah, I think so. I think that
the party knows that we have to.
Speaker 1 (10:37):
Look.
Speaker 3 (10:38):
The Doose Commission Committee is the most amazing thing. I mean,
they are showing hundreds and hundreds of billions of dollars
of waste and efficiency. I think this is a great
way to just expose to the American people how your
tax dollars in Washington are spent. I think has created
a culture where Americans can say, yes, we can cut
one trillion dollars out of this federal budget. Most Americans
(11:01):
will not feel any pain from that. We're not going
to talking about cutting your soci security or Medicare benefits.
We're talking about stopping the fraud and waste in our budget,
which is enormous. So I'm I'm very optimistic that that
will happen.
Speaker 2 (11:15):
Steve Moore is the founder of the Club for Growth,
Senior Visiting Fellow and Economics at the Heritage Foundation, and
one of my oldest friends.
Speaker 3 (11:21):
Great to talk to you, Steve.
Speaker 1 (11:22):
Thanks for doing this.
Speaker 3 (11:24):
Okay, Ross, have a great weekend and Happy Valentine's Day
to everybody. Yep, same to you.
The Ross Kaminsky Show News
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