Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Political editor at NewsNation, contributing editor at The Dispatch, where
I am paying subscriber. He's a senior Fellow of the
esteemed American Enterprise Institute, and he has a very odd
taste in salad dressing. He also has the distinction of
being fired from his previous job for being right an
hour too early, and for some reason it wasn't okay
(00:22):
to be right an hour two early.
Speaker 2 (00:25):
So NewsNation is very glad to have him. I'm very
glad to have him.
Speaker 1 (00:28):
He also hosts The Hill Sunday on Sunday mornings on NewsNation,
and he has pulled his car over wherever he is
so that he can fully focus on our conversation.
Speaker 3 (00:38):
Hi, Chris, how you doing man? And after that introduction,
I don't want to do anything else. I think we
should just add the interview right here. I think it's perfect.
You've said everything I wanted said.
Speaker 1 (00:51):
So I think I need to start with the most important,
the most important question, and that is, since you're from
West Virginia, what NFL team do you root for? And
do most West Virginians root for a particular team or
is it like you know, Kansas, where people in the
West might root for one team and people in the
(01:11):
east for another.
Speaker 2 (01:12):
That kind of thing.
Speaker 3 (01:15):
Well, I think in the little part of the eastern
Hanhandle that's close to Washington, there are some Washington football
team fans. I can never remember what their name is,
the Commodores whatever, So there are some of those people.
In southern West Virginia, you're going to get your odd
(01:35):
Cowboys fan because of the Cowboys' lasting presence in places
that didn't have football teams. But I would say you're
going to predominantly get Bengals. And then in the northern
half of the state where I'm from, it's overwhelmingly Steelers.
It's Steelers, like hardcore all the way. I find professional
(01:58):
football to be a perfectly fine distraction. But college football's
where it's at. College football is the better game, the
more interesting game, there, more fun game.
Speaker 2 (02:09):
Uh a, Rod, what did you just say about the Broncos.
The Denver Broncos are in West Virginia right now.
Speaker 3 (02:15):
Actually, yeah, to hanging out on the East coast.
Speaker 1 (02:18):
So they on to come back because they played the
New York Jets and they just obviously played the Tampa
Bay Buccaneers.
Speaker 2 (02:22):
So they're right there right now there in West Virginia.
Chris can go visit Chris.
Speaker 1 (02:26):
Did you see the CU Baylor game the other day?
Speaker 3 (02:31):
I saw that. I saw the highlights, and I'm frankly
concerned because I had lulled myself into a false as
a West Virginia University Mountaineers fan. I had lowered myself
into a false sense of security that Colorado was so
overrated that it was not going to be a problem.
Now I have concerns.
Speaker 1 (02:52):
Speaking of false senses of security, it seems to me
that they're and how about that for a second.
Speaker 2 (02:58):
It seems to me that they're are.
Speaker 1 (03:01):
At least some Republicans who are so skeptical of polls
that even though Kamala Harris has been doing fairly well,
not massively well, but fairly well in polling recently, they
still think Trump has a better than fifty to fifty chance.
I think this thing is close to a coin flip,
(03:23):
But I'd like to get your take on Those.
Speaker 2 (03:25):
Are sort of two separate questions. Do you think it's
coin flip?
Speaker 1 (03:29):
And do you and do you think that polling could
still quote unquote be wrong, as Republicans have been saying
for a long time, which is an argument I think
is overstated.
Speaker 3 (03:42):
Well, the polls will be wrong in the sense that
they will not precisely predict the outcome of the presidential election.
That is always true, but we don't know by how much,
and we don't know in which direction by how much.
So the Joe Biden national polling in twenty twenty nailed
(04:04):
Joe Biden. If you take an average, and I always
telling people, just use high quality polls. That's why in
every week in the Star Wars on Politics in my newsletter,
we just do an average of the five most recent
high quality, good polls, because otherwise what you're going to
do is you're going to get sucked into an affection
(04:25):
for cheap, low quality polls that tell you what you
want to hear. You have to set a high standard.
What kind of poles am I going to accept? And
then and then live with the content quiss In an
average of high quality polls, Kamala Harris is winning, and
she's not winning by much, but she's winning outside of
what I call the swing stage shift. The way to
(04:46):
think about who's going to win the election. Take that
average of national polls and subtract two points from the Democrat.
You subtract two points from the Democrat, because those seven
swings dates are almost two points less democratic than the
nation as a whole. We live in a country that
as a whole is democratic more than republican. California is
(05:10):
a thing, New York's a thing, and Chicago's a thing.
But when you take it to the swing states? What
makes those states, which combine for ninety some electoral votes,
When you take those states, you find that they're about
one point six, one point seven, one point eight points
(05:31):
more Republican than the nation as a whole. So if
you want to know how you and if you want
to know how that the race is going, you subtract
two points from the Democrat and you get a pretty
good idea. Hillary Clinton won the national popular vote by
two point zero two points in twenty sixteen, and then
she lost Michigan was I think her closest state. It
(05:52):
was eleven thousand votes or something. It was excruciatingly close
for Democrats. And what we're looking at now is Kamala
Harris is three points a little better than three points
ahead of Trump, so she's just outside of the swing
state chef. The next question about how reliable will the
(06:13):
polls be visa VI Trump.
Speaker 2 (06:16):
Let me Chris Trump, let me jump in for a second,
if you can. So.
Speaker 1 (06:21):
One thing I wonder about with the national polls versus
the swing state kind of polls, is is it possible
that the strength of support for Kamala Harris is magnified
in ways in blue states, let's say, where her actual
(06:43):
turnout in the so called national popular vote really could
be up measurably in those states, but in a way
that doesn't necessarily translate to the swing states, such that
perhaps in retrospect will end up looking back on this
and saying you really needed to subtract three rather than two.
Speaker 3 (07:03):
Well, as I say, we don't know by how much,
and we don't know in which direction. In twenty twelve,
Barack Obama was understated seriously in national polls. National polls
understated Barack Obama support, and he outperformed substantially, and it
showed up in key places like Florida and Ohio where
(07:25):
Republicans thought that they were gonna win or had a
fighting chance, and he won handily. In twenty sixteen, so
Donald Trump outperformed well, maybe think about it this way.
Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump both outperformed the polls. He
just outperformed by enough to get into the swing stage shift.
(07:47):
He beat the polls by enough, and that took him over.
A thing about polling is we focus on polling. AIR.
I focus on polling. AIR I care about polling. AIR.
I want the post to be accurate. But we also
have to remember that late deciders decide. We have maybe
five percent of the electorate left to decide.
Speaker 1 (08:08):
And to.
Speaker 3 (08:12):
Make it work for Trump, basically he's going to need
to win something like two thirds of the late deciders.
They the preponderance of those late deciding voters have to
come in for Trump to get him over the hump.
He's got a serious deficiency when it comes to the suburbs.
We know all of his deficiencies. What Republicans are hoping
(08:36):
is that a wave of low propensity voters, right, So,
these are working class voters, folks without college degrees, lower
income voters who tend to be lower propensity voters are
going to flood in and they're going to push Trump
over that swing state shift. They're going to get it
to the point. And when you think about the map,
think about it this way. You got seven states, Michigan
(08:58):
and Nevada, are the most democratic. North Carolina and Arizona
are the most Republican, and then you've got Georgia next
most Republican, and then you've got Wisconsin, and then you've
got Pennsylvania. And how high the tide for either one
of those candidates goes will exist in relationship to what
(09:20):
the national vote is. These are not independent, These are
not discreet variables. Yes, we count the votes variably, but
the states have a nature unto themselves. But they also
have a nature as it relates to other states. If
Donald Trump, let's say, wins Michigan, he's going to win
the presidency because he's also going to win all the
(09:42):
other more Republican states, which include all of the Red
Wall states in the South, that includes probably Pennsylvania. Conversely,
if Kamala Harris, if you could tell me today Kamala
Harris is going to win North Carolina, you know she's
going to win the presidency because she's also going to
have won Pennsylvania, Michigan, in Wisconsin she will have easily won.
(10:02):
So states have a nature, but they have a nature
in relationship to each other.
Speaker 1 (10:06):
A listener asks what makes a poll a high quality poll?
Speaker 3 (10:13):
Oh, I'm very glad your listener asked. The answer is,
there are other ways to do it, but the best,
most reliable way is you want it from an independent
outlet Number one. That's good. You want it to be
conducted by live interviewer telephone call. So the problem we
have with poling Trump is not quote shy Trump voters.
(10:39):
It is that you cannot get Trump's strongest demographic on
the phone for a poll very easily. It's not that
voters are lying about who they're voting for. It's that
white working class voters the strongest constituency for Trump. He's
going to get seventy seventy five percent of the vote
with these voters. They're hard to pull. They don't answer
(11:01):
the phone, they don't like to participate in polls, they
don't like polling. They're mad at polling. They're they're out. So,
as I wrote the other day, if you cannot catch
a bass on a spinner lure, the only bass that
you will catch will be unusual if you're fishing with spinners.
(11:22):
So you get this weird effect, which is if you
have low participation rates for white working class voters, the
white working class voters that you get will be atypical
and part of what is and therefore more democratic, not
reflective of the group as a whole. So part of
the problem has been that. But let me ask, let
me ask a question. Is it more likely that Donald
(11:48):
Trump is going to again increase by three points compared
to his final polling average or that Donald Trump is
pulling better. I think it's more likely that Donald Trump
is pulling better because I don't think that Donald Trump
is going to break through his I don't think Donald
Trump is going to get more than fifty percent of
the vote. I think Donald Trump is going to get
(12:10):
forty seven eight forty eight point five percent of the
vote vote nationally. He's very consistent and he's going to
get his number. What he needs in order to win
is to be at the high end of that register
and have lots of folks sitting out on the Democratic side.
Right again, somebody not digging it right. The way that
(12:35):
Donald Trump beat Hillary Clinton was that no matter how
bad Donald Trump was doing in the campaign in twenty sixteen,
Hillary Clinton couldn't break fifty percent. She just couldn't. She
couldn't get there because her own voters were skeptical of her.
I think it's most likely this year that because Donald
Trump's in his third run, because polsters are trying to
(12:57):
control for the problems of getting white working last responses
that Donald Trump is going to not improve by three
point six points, but he's going to improve by a
typical amount a point and a half something like that.
I think that's more likely. Doesn't mean he's not going
to win. I would just say that if I was
a Republican, I would be very skeptical about ideas that
(13:20):
the race is going to dramatically change at the end
because Donald Trump's going to improve by nearly four points,
I don't think that's in the cards.
Speaker 1 (13:29):
We're talking with Chris steier, Walt's political editor at NewsNation
contributing editor at The Dispatch. We have just a few
minutes left, so give me some slightly short answers so
we can get in a few things, and let's move
away from polling a little bit, talk about politics a
little bit more. Are you surprised at how much Kamala
Harris is getting away with not saying anything real about
(13:51):
any policy other than maybe abortion.
Speaker 3 (13:57):
Well, we certainly live in a stupid time to be alive.
There is no question both parties have decided that policy matters,
and this was something that people complained about thirty years ago.
But basically policy is slogan airing and bumper stickers. This
(14:20):
is what I want to do, and I think or
Kamala Harris her danger. Republicans blame the press a lot, right,
they say that why isn't the press hitt Kamala Harris harder?
The miracle for Kamalain Harris is that Democrats aren't hitting
her harder. She's getting away with murder, right, So she's
(14:40):
how we unfracking love it? How am I on guns?
I'll shoot somebody? She is? She is sprinting to the right,
go into the middle on all this stuff. And you
know we're not hearing Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. We're
not hearing voices of complaint. Well, I don't know if
this is okay. And this is because Democrats are so
(15:01):
afraid of Donald Trump being president again that they are
willing to hold their breath and sit on their hands
and let her say anything anything that she feels like
she needs to say in order to win. And it
is politics is about perceived comparative advantage. Democrats concluded correctly
(15:24):
that it was a huge advantage for Donald Trump to
have no restraints placed on him by his party, Right,
no restraints whatsoever. What are we doing with the platform?
Whatever he says, What are we going to do about that,
whatever he says, you just shut up and we do it.
We trust him and we're going with him and let
him have maximal maneuverability. Democrats have decided that they want
(15:46):
that for Kamala Harris. Now, I will point out as
an annoying person that in a political campaign where both
sides are making frankly preposterous proposals, right, just throwing out
Donald Trump, we're going to get no tax on overtime,
no tax on tips, no tax on what is not
taxing anything, and we're going to get all the money
(16:07):
back by tariffs. What Kamala Harris says, we'll have the
Federal Trade Commission set the price for groceries. What just unseerious,
profoundly unserious proposals, flowing it out like water. And they
do it because it works. They do it because it works.
(16:27):
And for those low information voters, low propensity voters who
you're trying to get in the space, you just throw
stuff out there and hope it works now as far
as governing a country after an election, good luck, right.
Speaker 1 (16:40):
And I'll just add one quick thing to that, and
then I'll ask you my last question. It seems to
me that to the extent that people spend much time
on Twitter, they they probably think it's making them higher
information voters, but I think it's making them lower information voters.
Do you want to give any very quick comment on that,
And then I'll ask you one last thing.
Speaker 3 (17:03):
Misinformed voters are in a worse position than uninformed voters.
Uninformed voters are people who are getting little amounts of
political news. It's what's filtering through on Instagram. It's what
they pick up on the news breaks on local TV
that's barely seeping in. The people who are in the
worst position and put the country at the most disadvantage,
(17:23):
consume lots of low quality content. Right, They're not listening
to your show, They're going down rabbit holes on the Internet.
They're consuming garbage and it makes them crazy.
Speaker 2 (17:35):
All right, give me very quick answer to these last two.
Speaker 1 (17:39):
If you had to pick two numbers, how many Republicans
will be in the Senate in the next Senate.
Speaker 2 (17:47):
How many Republicans will be in the House in the
next House. Just give me one number for each of
your best guests.
Speaker 3 (17:56):
I'll say fifty two. Yeah, I'll say I'll say fifty
two Republicans in the Senate and two hundred and twenty
two hundred and twenty one Republicans in the House.
Speaker 1 (18:14):
Wow, So you think Republicans keep the narrow majority in
the House.
Speaker 2 (18:17):
It's very very interesting. Chris Steyerwalt is made.
Speaker 3 (18:20):
In my opinion, that was the pure points Leb, that's
the pure points lab right.
Speaker 1 (18:25):
Chris Stywalt, despite liking Pink Roquefort Sala addressing, is the
best and perhaps the tallest political analyst in America. You
should watch him on News Nations there all the time,
including The Hill Sunday on Sunday mornings on News Nation.
Speaker 2 (18:40):
An invaluable show.
Speaker 1 (18:42):
Really, and Chris, I appreciate your time as always, always
so great to talk to you.
Speaker 2 (18:47):
Thanks for doing this, my friend.
Speaker 3 (18:50):
Thanks father, I appreciate you.
Political editor at NewsNation, contributing editor at The Dispatch, where
I am paying subscriber. He's a senior Fellow of the
esteemed American Enterprise Institute, and he has a very odd
taste in salad dressing. He also has the distinction of
being fired from his previous job for being right an
hour too early, and for some reason it wasn't okay
(00:22):
to be right an hour two early.
Speaker 2 (00:25):
So NewsNation is very glad to have him. I'm very
glad to have him.
Speaker 1 (00:28):
He also hosts The Hill Sunday on Sunday mornings on NewsNation,
and he has pulled his car over wherever he is
so that he can fully focus on our conversation.
Speaker 3 (00:38):
Hi, Chris, how you doing man? And after that introduction,
I don't want to do anything else. I think we
should just add the interview right here. I think it's perfect.
You've said everything I wanted said.
Speaker 1 (00:51):
So I think I need to start with the most important,
the most important question, and that is, since you're from
West Virginia, what NFL team do you root for? And
do most West Virginians root for a particular team or
is it like you know, Kansas, where people in the
West might root for one team and people in the
(01:11):
east for another.
Speaker 2 (01:12):
That kind of thing.
Speaker 3 (01:15):
Well, I think in the little part of the eastern
Hanhandle that's close to Washington, there are some Washington football
team fans. I can never remember what their name is,
the Commodores whatever, So there are some of those people.
In southern West Virginia, you're going to get your odd
(01:35):
Cowboys fan because of the Cowboys' lasting presence in places
that didn't have football teams. But I would say you're
going to predominantly get Bengals. And then in the northern
half of the state where I'm from, it's overwhelmingly Steelers.
It's Steelers, like hardcore all the way. I find professional
(01:58):
football to be a perfectly fine distraction. But college football's
where it's at. College football is the better game, the
more interesting game, there, more fun game.
Speaker 2 (02:09):
Uh a, Rod, what did you just say about the Broncos.
The Denver Broncos are in West Virginia right now.
Speaker 3 (02:15):
Actually, yeah, to hanging out on the East coast.
Speaker 1 (02:18):
So they on to come back because they played the
New York Jets and they just obviously played the Tampa
Bay Buccaneers.
Speaker 2 (02:22):
So they're right there right now there in West Virginia.
Chris can go visit Chris.
Speaker 1 (02:26):
Did you see the CU Baylor game the other day?
Speaker 3 (02:31):
I saw that. I saw the highlights, and I'm frankly
concerned because I had lulled myself into a false as
a West Virginia University Mountaineers fan. I had lowered myself
into a false sense of security that Colorado was so
overrated that it was not going to be a problem.
Now I have concerns.
Speaker 1 (02:52):
Speaking of false senses of security, it seems to me
that they're and how about that for a second.
Speaker 2 (02:58):
It seems to me that they're are.
Speaker 1 (03:01):
At least some Republicans who are so skeptical of polls
that even though Kamala Harris has been doing fairly well,
not massively well, but fairly well in polling recently, they
still think Trump has a better than fifty to fifty chance.
I think this thing is close to a coin flip,
(03:23):
But I'd like to get your take on Those.
Speaker 2 (03:25):
Are sort of two separate questions. Do you think it's
coin flip?
Speaker 1 (03:29):
And do you and do you think that polling could
still quote unquote be wrong, as Republicans have been saying
for a long time, which is an argument I think
is overstated.
Speaker 3 (03:42):
Well, the polls will be wrong in the sense that
they will not precisely predict the outcome of the presidential election.
That is always true, but we don't know by how much,
and we don't know in which direction by how much.
So the Joe Biden national polling in twenty twenty nailed
(04:04):
Joe Biden. If you take an average, and I always
telling people, just use high quality polls. That's why in
every week in the Star Wars on Politics in my newsletter,
we just do an average of the five most recent
high quality, good polls, because otherwise what you're going to
do is you're going to get sucked into an affection
(04:25):
for cheap, low quality polls that tell you what you
want to hear. You have to set a high standard.
What kind of poles am I going to accept? And
then and then live with the content quiss In an
average of high quality polls, Kamala Harris is winning, and
she's not winning by much, but she's winning outside of
what I call the swing stage shift. The way to
(04:46):
think about who's going to win the election. Take that
average of national polls and subtract two points from the Democrat.
You subtract two points from the Democrat, because those seven
swings dates are almost two points less democratic than the
nation as a whole. We live in a country that
as a whole is democratic more than republican. California is
(05:10):
a thing, New York's a thing, and Chicago's a thing.
But when you take it to the swing states? What
makes those states, which combine for ninety some electoral votes,
When you take those states, you find that they're about
one point six, one point seven, one point eight points
(05:31):
more Republican than the nation as a whole. So if
you want to know how you and if you want
to know how that the race is going, you subtract
two points from the Democrat and you get a pretty
good idea. Hillary Clinton won the national popular vote by
two point zero two points in twenty sixteen, and then
she lost Michigan was I think her closest state. It
(05:52):
was eleven thousand votes or something. It was excruciatingly close
for Democrats. And what we're looking at now is Kamala
Harris is three points a little better than three points
ahead of Trump, so she's just outside of the swing
state chef. The next question about how reliable will the
(06:13):
polls be visa VI Trump.
Speaker 2 (06:16):
Let me Chris Trump, let me jump in for a second,
if you can. So.
Speaker 1 (06:21):
One thing I wonder about with the national polls versus
the swing state kind of polls, is is it possible
that the strength of support for Kamala Harris is magnified
in ways in blue states, let's say, where her actual
(06:43):
turnout in the so called national popular vote really could
be up measurably in those states, but in a way
that doesn't necessarily translate to the swing states, such that
perhaps in retrospect will end up looking back on this
and saying you really needed to subtract three rather than two.
Speaker 3 (07:03):
Well, as I say, we don't know by how much,
and we don't know in which direction. In twenty twelve,
Barack Obama was understated seriously in national polls. National polls
understated Barack Obama support, and he outperformed substantially, and it
showed up in key places like Florida and Ohio where
(07:25):
Republicans thought that they were gonna win or had a
fighting chance, and he won handily. In twenty sixteen, so
Donald Trump outperformed well, maybe think about it this way.
Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump both outperformed the polls. He
just outperformed by enough to get into the swing stage shift.
(07:47):
He beat the polls by enough, and that took him over.
A thing about polling is we focus on polling. AIR.
I focus on polling. AIR I care about polling. AIR.
I want the post to be accurate. But we also
have to remember that late deciders decide. We have maybe
five percent of the electorate left to decide.
Speaker 1 (08:08):
And to.
Speaker 3 (08:12):
Make it work for Trump, basically he's going to need
to win something like two thirds of the late deciders.
They the preponderance of those late deciding voters have to
come in for Trump to get him over the hump.
He's got a serious deficiency when it comes to the suburbs.
We know all of his deficiencies. What Republicans are hoping
(08:36):
is that a wave of low propensity voters, right, So,
these are working class voters, folks without college degrees, lower
income voters who tend to be lower propensity voters are
going to flood in and they're going to push Trump
over that swing state shift. They're going to get it
to the point. And when you think about the map,
think about it this way. You got seven states, Michigan
(08:58):
and Nevada, are the most democratic. North Carolina and Arizona
are the most Republican, and then you've got Georgia next
most Republican, and then you've got Wisconsin, and then you've
got Pennsylvania. And how high the tide for either one
of those candidates goes will exist in relationship to what
(09:20):
the national vote is. These are not independent, These are
not discreet variables. Yes, we count the votes variably, but
the states have a nature unto themselves. But they also
have a nature as it relates to other states. If
Donald Trump, let's say, wins Michigan, he's going to win
the presidency because he's also going to win all the
(09:42):
other more Republican states, which include all of the Red
Wall states in the South, that includes probably Pennsylvania. Conversely,
if Kamala Harris, if you could tell me today Kamala
Harris is going to win North Carolina, you know she's
going to win the presidency because she's also going to
have won Pennsylvania, Michigan, in Wisconsin she will have easily won.
(10:02):
So states have a nature, but they have a nature
in relationship to each other.
Speaker 1 (10:06):
A listener asks what makes a poll a high quality poll?
Speaker 3 (10:13):
Oh, I'm very glad your listener asked. The answer is,
there are other ways to do it, but the best,
most reliable way is you want it from an independent
outlet Number one. That's good. You want it to be
conducted by live interviewer telephone call. So the problem we
have with poling Trump is not quote shy Trump voters.
(10:39):
It is that you cannot get Trump's strongest demographic on
the phone for a poll very easily. It's not that
voters are lying about who they're voting for. It's that
white working class voters the strongest constituency for Trump. He's
going to get seventy seventy five percent of the vote
with these voters. They're hard to pull. They don't answer
(11:01):
the phone, they don't like to participate in polls, they
don't like polling. They're mad at polling. They're they're out. So,
as I wrote the other day, if you cannot catch
a bass on a spinner lure, the only bass that
you will catch will be unusual if you're fishing with spinners.
(11:22):
So you get this weird effect, which is if you
have low participation rates for white working class voters, the
white working class voters that you get will be atypical
and part of what is and therefore more democratic, not
reflective of the group as a whole. So part of
the problem has been that. But let me ask, let
me ask a question. Is it more likely that Donald
(11:48):
Trump is going to again increase by three points compared
to his final polling average or that Donald Trump is
pulling better. I think it's more likely that Donald Trump
is pulling better because I don't think that Donald Trump
is going to break through his I don't think Donald
Trump is going to get more than fifty percent of
the vote. I think Donald Trump is going to get
(12:10):
forty seven eight forty eight point five percent of the
vote vote nationally. He's very consistent and he's going to
get his number. What he needs in order to win
is to be at the high end of that register
and have lots of folks sitting out on the Democratic side.
Right again, somebody not digging it right. The way that
(12:35):
Donald Trump beat Hillary Clinton was that no matter how
bad Donald Trump was doing in the campaign in twenty sixteen,
Hillary Clinton couldn't break fifty percent. She just couldn't. She
couldn't get there because her own voters were skeptical of her.
I think it's most likely this year that because Donald
Trump's in his third run, because polsters are trying to
(12:57):
control for the problems of getting white working last responses
that Donald Trump is going to not improve by three
point six points, but he's going to improve by a
typical amount a point and a half something like that.
I think that's more likely. Doesn't mean he's not going
to win. I would just say that if I was
a Republican, I would be very skeptical about ideas that
(13:20):
the race is going to dramatically change at the end
because Donald Trump's going to improve by nearly four points,
I don't think that's in the cards.
Speaker 1 (13:29):
We're talking with Chris steier, Walt's political editor at NewsNation
contributing editor at The Dispatch. We have just a few
minutes left, so give me some slightly short answers so
we can get in a few things, and let's move
away from polling a little bit, talk about politics a
little bit more. Are you surprised at how much Kamala
Harris is getting away with not saying anything real about
(13:51):
any policy other than maybe abortion.
Speaker 3 (13:57):
Well, we certainly live in a stupid time to be alive.
There is no question both parties have decided that policy matters,
and this was something that people complained about thirty years ago.
But basically policy is slogan airing and bumper stickers. This
(14:20):
is what I want to do, and I think or
Kamala Harris her danger. Republicans blame the press a lot, right,
they say that why isn't the press hitt Kamala Harris harder?
The miracle for Kamalain Harris is that Democrats aren't hitting
her harder. She's getting away with murder, right, So she's
(14:40):
how we unfracking love it? How am I on guns?
I'll shoot somebody? She is? She is sprinting to the right,
go into the middle on all this stuff. And you
know we're not hearing Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. We're
not hearing voices of complaint. Well, I don't know if
this is okay. And this is because Democrats are so
(15:01):
afraid of Donald Trump being president again that they are
willing to hold their breath and sit on their hands
and let her say anything anything that she feels like
she needs to say in order to win. And it
is politics is about perceived comparative advantage. Democrats concluded correctly
(15:24):
that it was a huge advantage for Donald Trump to
have no restraints placed on him by his party, Right,
no restraints whatsoever. What are we doing with the platform?
Whatever he says, What are we going to do about that,
whatever he says, you just shut up and we do it.
We trust him and we're going with him and let
him have maximal maneuverability. Democrats have decided that they want
(15:46):
that for Kamala Harris. Now, I will point out as
an annoying person that in a political campaign where both
sides are making frankly preposterous proposals, right, just throwing out
Donald Trump, we're going to get no tax on overtime,
no tax on tips, no tax on what is not
taxing anything, and we're going to get all the money
(16:07):
back by tariffs. What Kamala Harris says, we'll have the
Federal Trade Commission set the price for groceries. What just unseerious,
profoundly unserious proposals, flowing it out like water. And they
do it because it works. They do it because it works.
(16:27):
And for those low information voters, low propensity voters who
you're trying to get in the space, you just throw
stuff out there and hope it works now as far
as governing a country after an election, good luck, right.
Speaker 1 (16:40):
And I'll just add one quick thing to that, and
then I'll ask you my last question. It seems to
me that to the extent that people spend much time
on Twitter, they they probably think it's making them higher
information voters, but I think it's making them lower information voters.
Do you want to give any very quick comment on that,
And then I'll ask you one last thing.
Speaker 3 (17:03):
Misinformed voters are in a worse position than uninformed voters.
Uninformed voters are people who are getting little amounts of
political news. It's what's filtering through on Instagram. It's what
they pick up on the news breaks on local TV
that's barely seeping in. The people who are in the
worst position and put the country at the most disadvantage,
(17:23):
consume lots of low quality content. Right, They're not listening
to your show, They're going down rabbit holes on the Internet.
They're consuming garbage and it makes them crazy.
Speaker 2 (17:35):
All right, give me very quick answer to these last two.
Speaker 1 (17:39):
If you had to pick two numbers, how many Republicans
will be in the Senate in the next Senate.
Speaker 2 (17:47):
How many Republicans will be in the House in the
next House. Just give me one number for each of
your best guests.
Speaker 3 (17:56):
I'll say fifty two. Yeah, I'll say I'll say fifty
two Republicans in the Senate and two hundred and twenty
two hundred and twenty one Republicans in the House.
Speaker 1 (18:14):
Wow, So you think Republicans keep the narrow majority in
the House.
Speaker 2 (18:17):
It's very very interesting. Chris Steyerwalt is made.
Speaker 3 (18:20):
In my opinion, that was the pure points Leb, that's
the pure points lab right.
Speaker 1 (18:25):
Chris Stywalt, despite liking Pink Roquefort Sala addressing, is the
best and perhaps the tallest political analyst in America. You
should watch him on News Nations there all the time,
including The Hill Sunday on Sunday mornings on News Nation.
Speaker 2 (18:40):
An invaluable show.
Speaker 1 (18:42):
Really, and Chris, I appreciate your time as always, always
so great to talk to you.
Speaker 2 (18:47):
Thanks for doing this, my friend.
Speaker 3 (18:50):
Thanks father, I appreciate you.
The Ross Kaminsky Show News
Popular Podcasts
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com
Las Culturistas with Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang
Ding dong! Join your culture consultants, Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang, on an unforgettable journey into the beating heart of CULTURE. Alongside sizzling special guests, they GET INTO the hottest pop-culture moments of the day and the formative cultural experiences that turned them into Culturistas. Produced by the Big Money Players Network and iHeartRadio.