April 8, 2025 • 10 mins
Aviation Expert Jay Ratliff weighs in on stocks with the Airlines. Plus, when is the best time to get your tickets for summer travel
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Let's get to Jay. Jay Ratliff on the Legacy Retirement
Group dot com phone line, our aviation expert. You can
find him at j ratlift dot com. And every now
and then we tap into Jay's other expertise and you
can find him there at daytrade fund dot com. And
I don't know how fun it's been, Jay, unless you
and your clients are making a ton of money here
the last few days with the stock market. But today
(00:21):
seems like it's going to be a better day at
daytrade fund dot com with the futures being up anywhere
between six and seven hundred points.
Speaker 2 (00:27):
How are you well? Good morning? And yeah, my students
and I we can't type fast enough in these kind
of conditions. It's it's crazy when you have so much
emotion in the market where people are making decisions to
sell things at ridiculous prices, it's easy to jump in,
make five, ten, fifteen percent and kind of kind of
walk away. But I don't care if the market's going up,
(00:48):
down or sideways there. I don't do things on a
market specific approach at stock specific And I remember, for
the last thirty years of trading the pandemic when that
we had that month where things were going crazy and
a lot of similarities what we're seeing in this market.
And I got mad at my students because they were
just kind of hesitating, you know, like kids jumping rope
(01:10):
and you get one kid rocking back and forth trying
to decide when he's going to jump in. And I
went from teacher to coach pretty quick on my students,
and I said, come on, let's go. And I took
twenty seven thousand dollars that month in March of I
think it was twenty twenty, made forty two thousand dollars
in a month to show my students that, you know,
the opportunities are there, so you know, take advantage of them.
(01:32):
And you know, I see a lot of people panicking
right now, and I get so many emails from the
people that are holding stocks long term, and I'm thinking, now,
if stocks are going down as the market tends to do,
the worst thing you can do is pull the trigger,
panic and sell. And if you look at somebody like
Warren Buffett, Warren Buffett waits for stocks to go on sale.
(01:54):
He has a predetermined price he likes for specific stocks.
When the stock drops to that point, he pulls the trigger.
And it was in February that Warren Buffett was an
investor conference, and so many people work just climbing all
over this guy who happens to be, by the way,
the fifth richest person on the planet, telling him that
he's doing it wrong because he has too much cash
(02:16):
on the sidelines, three hundred and forty four billion dollars
just sitting around. He said, I'm waiting, I'm waiting, I'm waiting. Well, now,
who looks like the genius? I mean, obviously that's why
he's successful. There's no emotion in what he does. He
has a prese and German plan. It's like those of
us who played sports. You know what you're going to
do with the ball before you get it. It's all
(02:37):
pre planning that way. When it happens, there's no panic.
You just react to the checklist that you've developed.
Speaker 1 (02:42):
It's a great perspective. Jay Ratlift you can find him
at daytrade fund dot com if that's your thing, of course,
as our aviation expert at Jay Ratlift dot com. Real
quick on day trading. Do you do most of your
work before nine point thirty in the morning Eastern Do
you do a lot of the day trading before the
market actually opens.
Speaker 2 (03:01):
Many times. In fact, now because of Wee Bull and
some of these new brokers, you can begin pre market
trading as early as four o'clock in the morning. Yeah,
and I've got students that I finished by eight or
nine and off to work they go, or whatever that
they happen to do, or just say, jay, I you know,
I've made eight nine hundred bucks whatever. I'm just taking
the rest of the day off. And how cool is
that when you can, you know, make a decent, well
(03:23):
more than a decent amount of money in a short
period of time and in the days you can do
what you want. And what I love is the people
that I can teach that you don't have to worry about,
you know, retirement, you don't have to worry about outliving
your savings if you've got a way to generate a
little bit of cash along the way. Really, And that's
what I love, because look, when Northwest Airlines kicked me
to the curb twenty five, twenty four years ago, I
(03:46):
was ticked, but I thought, I'm never going back to
corporate America again. And that's when I spent the ten
years I did in that motel room trying to figure
out a way to make the stock market work. And yeah,
that's that's that's that's where we're at.
Speaker 1 (03:58):
So let's blend the two top How about airline stocks?
Are they they getting hammered like the other stocks on
Wall Street here last couple of days.
Speaker 2 (04:05):
That's a great point, and once again, my friend, you're
spot on because the last about four weeks or so,
many of the airline stocks have been down twenty thirty
forty percent now kind of the loan exception of that
has been Southwest Airlines. They've not been as hammered in
part because they're changing their business model where their revenue
streams are increasing with the idea of assigned seats that's
(04:27):
additional revenue, premium seats additional revenue, and of course checking
or charging for check luggage, which is also a revenue stream.
So they've been less impacted than some of the other carriers.
And it's you know, the other story to that is
the demand in summer travel has been has been dropping.
So airlines are like, wait a minute, you know, June,
(04:48):
July and August, that's our summer, you know, that's our
summer travel season, high demand. We can charge more for travel.
Last year we had record numbers, and now the advanced
demand for travels not that. So a lot of airlines
are cutting back on their capacity or number of seats
that they're going to offer during that busy, lucrative, normally
summer travel season. And why that sucks for us is because, well,
(05:12):
the less of anything you have, the more expensive it's
going to be. And that's exactly what we're saying. Fair
is going up as a result of fewer seats being
available for this busy summer travel season, which is why
I hope most people have already locked in their fares
for summer travel like last fall, and that way they're
protected against any future fair increase.
Speaker 1 (05:33):
My wife was looking at holiday travel the other day.
She was looking at December.
Speaker 2 (05:37):
Good. Well that's good. I mean, it's not like doing
it in January and February. But I will give her
partial credit for doing it in April.
Speaker 1 (05:46):
Okay.
Speaker 2 (05:47):
But you know, I have people that in the summer
will say, Jay, you're gonna be proud of me. I'm
planning my Thanksgiving travel early, and I'm like for this
year because early is like December January. Because a lot
of these airlines, you can make the reservations ten eleven
months in advance, and when sharing I travel and we
know when we're going to Yeah, we'll buy the tickets,
(06:09):
lock in the fair, grab the trip cancelation insurance to
protect ourselves. And you know you've heard me say it.
The two entities I want to give as little money
to are airlines in the IRS on that same level,
by the way, so if I can buy my tickets
in advance, save myself some money, make sure the airlines
only get as little as possible. Yeah, I'm a happy guy.
Speaker 1 (06:30):
Jay. I saw a story American Airlines is going to
discontinue their self served kiosks. I kind of like those.
It's super convenient if you know what you're doing and
you've got to you know, maybe just one bag to
check or no bags check, go in, put your info in,
get your boarding pass and you're done.
Speaker 2 (06:45):
Yep. And airlines are now a point where American and others.
In fact, it was started by last Airlines I think August,
the summer ago, not last year or the year before,
where they got rid of THEIRS. The thought being is
we want to generate less paper. So as a result,
you know, American Airlines prints like thirteen million boarding passes
a year. So the thought is, if they can get
(07:07):
away from that, then you know, it would be better
on the planet and it would be a lot more
convenient because what they're saying to passengers is, look, most
people are using their mobile apps. Now you've got the
online boarding passes, Boom, you check in, you can just
show that as you go through the gate area TSA
and go from there. And because of that, they're saying, look,
we can save a lot of money by not having
(07:28):
the kiosks, not having the maintenance, not having the software,
not having the maintenance, all the things that are connected
with that. And the thought is that's you know, introduced
twenty five years ago or so, the time for them
pretty well gone. Now. The problem with those electronic boarding
passes is a lot of people will take a screen
shot of their boarding pass. That way, if something happens, boom,
(07:48):
I've got it. The problem is, if you take that
screen shot, let's say a week before you fly, the
day of departure, we have to do an aircraft swamp
because the aircraft that was scheduled is not available. We've
got to bring in the other aircraft. The seat assignments
manytimes don't match up, and they will reassign you a seat.
So you might have a screenshot of sixteen A. You
go sit down and somebody comes on board saying you're
(08:11):
in my seat, and you say, no, you're not, I'm
in my seat, and you show them the boarding pass. Well,
the problem is the screen shots aren't obviously going to
be updated like your reservation, so you just want to
make sure before you fly that your screenshot matches up
with what you have because those things do change from
time to time.
Speaker 1 (08:28):
And they better hire more ticket agents too, because the
lines will, I would imagine grow if they're eliminating the kiosks.
Now I got to go stand in line and talk
to a human being versus just go and handle it myself,
I would imagine, right, Well.
Speaker 2 (08:41):
They are, But the idea is that more and more
people that are becoming savvier travelers will make their reservations
on their own and check themselves in on their own,
and when they get to the airport. They're designing these
future you know things that we're seeing a little bit
of now where you can just check in your bag
and go, or what's going to be a self service
(09:01):
bag check that's where we're headed, where you will check
your own bag, you will put the label on it, Boom,
away it goes, and then you trot on down to
the gate. Airlines are not looking at hiring more people.
They're looking at reducing the number of employees as much
as possible because fuel and employee costs are the number
(09:22):
one and two fixed costs for airlines, and the more
they can reduce the head count, the happier they're going
to be. That's why you and I've had the discussion
about airlines that would love to see one pilot in
the cockpit because two is yeah, too many.
Speaker 1 (09:36):
No, No, I'm going with too. I'm good with too.
Speaker 2 (09:39):
I'm very good with two.
Speaker 1 (09:39):
I'm good with two, and I'm good with my paper
boarding pass. Call me a dinosaur. All right, Jay, We
had some dicey weather here in the last week. Quieting
down a little bit today. How are the hub delays
around the country.
Speaker 2 (09:51):
Well, we started off with the icing delays. I mean,
come on, it's April eighth, the icing delays. Get rid
of that, but we were fighting that this morning. That's
out of the way. But Boston and Seattle kind of
the bookends of the country. If you will are seeing
DeLay's minor thirty forty five minutes, and the rest of
the country and everything in between looks being in pretty
good shape today.
Let's get to Jay. Jay Ratliff on the Legacy Retirement
Group dot com phone line, our aviation expert. You can
find him at j ratlift dot com. And every now
and then we tap into Jay's other expertise and you
can find him there at daytrade fund dot com. And
I don't know how fun it's been, Jay, unless you
and your clients are making a ton of money here
the last few days with the stock market. But today
(00:21):
seems like it's going to be a better day at
daytrade fund dot com with the futures being up anywhere
between six and seven hundred points.
Speaker 2 (00:27):
How are you well? Good morning? And yeah, my students
and I we can't type fast enough in these kind
of conditions. It's it's crazy when you have so much
emotion in the market where people are making decisions to
sell things at ridiculous prices, it's easy to jump in,
make five, ten, fifteen percent and kind of kind of
walk away. But I don't care if the market's going up,
(00:48):
down or sideways there. I don't do things on a
market specific approach at stock specific And I remember, for
the last thirty years of trading the pandemic when that
we had that month where things were going crazy and
a lot of similarities what we're seeing in this market.
And I got mad at my students because they were
just kind of hesitating, you know, like kids jumping rope
(01:10):
and you get one kid rocking back and forth trying
to decide when he's going to jump in. And I
went from teacher to coach pretty quick on my students,
and I said, come on, let's go. And I took
twenty seven thousand dollars that month in March of I
think it was twenty twenty, made forty two thousand dollars
in a month to show my students that, you know,
the opportunities are there, so you know, take advantage of them.
(01:32):
And you know, I see a lot of people panicking
right now, and I get so many emails from the
people that are holding stocks long term, and I'm thinking, now,
if stocks are going down as the market tends to do,
the worst thing you can do is pull the trigger,
panic and sell. And if you look at somebody like
Warren Buffett, Warren Buffett waits for stocks to go on sale.
(01:54):
He has a predetermined price he likes for specific stocks.
When the stock drops to that point, he pulls the trigger.
And it was in February that Warren Buffett was an
investor conference, and so many people work just climbing all
over this guy who happens to be, by the way,
the fifth richest person on the planet, telling him that
he's doing it wrong because he has too much cash
(02:16):
on the sidelines, three hundred and forty four billion dollars
just sitting around. He said, I'm waiting, I'm waiting, I'm waiting. Well, now,
who looks like the genius? I mean, obviously that's why
he's successful. There's no emotion in what he does. He
has a prese and German plan. It's like those of
us who played sports. You know what you're going to
do with the ball before you get it. It's all
(02:37):
pre planning that way. When it happens, there's no panic.
You just react to the checklist that you've developed.
Speaker 1 (02:42):
It's a great perspective. Jay Ratlift you can find him
at daytrade fund dot com if that's your thing, of course,
as our aviation expert at Jay Ratlift dot com. Real
quick on day trading. Do you do most of your
work before nine point thirty in the morning Eastern Do
you do a lot of the day trading before the
market actually opens.
Speaker 2 (03:01):
Many times. In fact, now because of Wee Bull and
some of these new brokers, you can begin pre market
trading as early as four o'clock in the morning. Yeah,
and I've got students that I finished by eight or
nine and off to work they go, or whatever that
they happen to do, or just say, jay, I you know,
I've made eight nine hundred bucks whatever. I'm just taking
the rest of the day off. And how cool is
that when you can, you know, make a decent, well
(03:23):
more than a decent amount of money in a short
period of time and in the days you can do
what you want. And what I love is the people
that I can teach that you don't have to worry about,
you know, retirement, you don't have to worry about outliving
your savings if you've got a way to generate a
little bit of cash along the way. Really, And that's
what I love, because look, when Northwest Airlines kicked me
to the curb twenty five, twenty four years ago, I
(03:46):
was ticked, but I thought, I'm never going back to
corporate America again. And that's when I spent the ten
years I did in that motel room trying to figure
out a way to make the stock market work. And yeah,
that's that's that's that's where we're at.
Speaker 1 (03:58):
So let's blend the two top How about airline stocks?
Are they they getting hammered like the other stocks on
Wall Street here last couple of days.
Speaker 2 (04:05):
That's a great point, and once again, my friend, you're
spot on because the last about four weeks or so,
many of the airline stocks have been down twenty thirty
forty percent now kind of the loan exception of that
has been Southwest Airlines. They've not been as hammered in
part because they're changing their business model where their revenue
streams are increasing with the idea of assigned seats that's
(04:27):
additional revenue, premium seats additional revenue, and of course checking
or charging for check luggage, which is also a revenue stream.
So they've been less impacted than some of the other carriers.
And it's you know, the other story to that is
the demand in summer travel has been has been dropping.
So airlines are like, wait a minute, you know, June,
(04:48):
July and August, that's our summer, you know, that's our
summer travel season, high demand. We can charge more for travel.
Last year we had record numbers, and now the advanced
demand for travels not that. So a lot of airlines
are cutting back on their capacity or number of seats
that they're going to offer during that busy, lucrative, normally
summer travel season. And why that sucks for us is because, well,
(05:12):
the less of anything you have, the more expensive it's
going to be. And that's exactly what we're saying. Fair
is going up as a result of fewer seats being
available for this busy summer travel season, which is why
I hope most people have already locked in their fares
for summer travel like last fall, and that way they're
protected against any future fair increase.
Speaker 1 (05:33):
My wife was looking at holiday travel the other day.
She was looking at December.
Speaker 2 (05:37):
Good. Well that's good. I mean, it's not like doing
it in January and February. But I will give her
partial credit for doing it in April.
Speaker 1 (05:46):
Okay.
Speaker 2 (05:47):
But you know, I have people that in the summer
will say, Jay, you're gonna be proud of me. I'm
planning my Thanksgiving travel early, and I'm like for this
year because early is like December January. Because a lot
of these airlines, you can make the reservations ten eleven
months in advance, and when sharing I travel and we
know when we're going to Yeah, we'll buy the tickets,
(06:09):
lock in the fair, grab the trip cancelation insurance to
protect ourselves. And you know you've heard me say it.
The two entities I want to give as little money
to are airlines in the IRS on that same level,
by the way, so if I can buy my tickets
in advance, save myself some money, make sure the airlines
only get as little as possible. Yeah, I'm a happy guy.
Speaker 1 (06:30):
Jay. I saw a story American Airlines is going to
discontinue their self served kiosks. I kind of like those.
It's super convenient if you know what you're doing and
you've got to you know, maybe just one bag to
check or no bags check, go in, put your info in,
get your boarding pass and you're done.
Speaker 2 (06:45):
Yep. And airlines are now a point where American and others.
In fact, it was started by last Airlines I think August,
the summer ago, not last year or the year before,
where they got rid of THEIRS. The thought being is
we want to generate less paper. So as a result,
you know, American Airlines prints like thirteen million boarding passes
a year. So the thought is, if they can get
(07:07):
away from that, then you know, it would be better
on the planet and it would be a lot more
convenient because what they're saying to passengers is, look, most
people are using their mobile apps. Now you've got the
online boarding passes, Boom, you check in, you can just
show that as you go through the gate area TSA
and go from there. And because of that, they're saying, look,
we can save a lot of money by not having
(07:28):
the kiosks, not having the maintenance, not having the software,
not having the maintenance, all the things that are connected
with that. And the thought is that's you know, introduced
twenty five years ago or so, the time for them
pretty well gone. Now. The problem with those electronic boarding
passes is a lot of people will take a screen
shot of their boarding pass. That way, if something happens, boom,
(07:48):
I've got it. The problem is, if you take that
screen shot, let's say a week before you fly, the
day of departure, we have to do an aircraft swamp
because the aircraft that was scheduled is not available. We've
got to bring in the other aircraft. The seat assignments
manytimes don't match up, and they will reassign you a seat.
So you might have a screenshot of sixteen A. You
go sit down and somebody comes on board saying you're
(08:11):
in my seat, and you say, no, you're not, I'm
in my seat, and you show them the boarding pass. Well,
the problem is the screen shots aren't obviously going to
be updated like your reservation, so you just want to
make sure before you fly that your screenshot matches up
with what you have because those things do change from
time to time.
Speaker 1 (08:28):
And they better hire more ticket agents too, because the
lines will, I would imagine grow if they're eliminating the kiosks.
Now I got to go stand in line and talk
to a human being versus just go and handle it myself,
I would imagine, right, Well.
Speaker 2 (08:41):
They are, But the idea is that more and more
people that are becoming savvier travelers will make their reservations
on their own and check themselves in on their own,
and when they get to the airport. They're designing these
future you know things that we're seeing a little bit
of now where you can just check in your bag
and go, or what's going to be a self service
(09:01):
bag check that's where we're headed, where you will check
your own bag, you will put the label on it, Boom,
away it goes, and then you trot on down to
the gate. Airlines are not looking at hiring more people.
They're looking at reducing the number of employees as much
as possible because fuel and employee costs are the number
(09:22):
one and two fixed costs for airlines, and the more
they can reduce the head count, the happier they're going
to be. That's why you and I've had the discussion
about airlines that would love to see one pilot in
the cockpit because two is yeah, too many.
Speaker 1 (09:36):
No, No, I'm going with too. I'm good with too.
Speaker 2 (09:39):
I'm very good with two.
Speaker 1 (09:39):
I'm good with two, and I'm good with my paper
boarding pass. Call me a dinosaur. All right, Jay, We
had some dicey weather here in the last week. Quieting
down a little bit today. How are the hub delays
around the country.
Speaker 2 (09:51):
Well, we started off with the icing delays. I mean,
come on, it's April eighth, the icing delays. Get rid
of that, but we were fighting that this morning. That's
out of the way. But Boston and Seattle kind of
the bookends of the country. If you will are seeing
DeLay's minor thirty forty five minutes, and the rest of
the country and everything in between looks being in pretty
good shape today.
Popular Podcasts
40s and Free Agents: NFL Draft Season
Daniel Jeremiah of Move the Sticks and Gregg Rosenthal of NFL Daily join forces to break down every team's needs this offseason.
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com
Las Culturistas with Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang
Ding dong! Join your culture consultants, Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang, on an unforgettable journey into the beating heart of CULTURE. Alongside sizzling special guests, they GET INTO the hottest pop-culture moments of the day and the formative cultural experiences that turned them into Culturistas. Produced by the Big Money Players Network and iHeartRadio.