The Point: Professional investing in Australia with Perpetual
Perpetual Group is an international asset manager including boutiques such as Perpetual, Pendal, Barrow Hanley, Regnan and Trillium. Each week our portfolio managers share the most interesting things they've heard from CEOs, industry leaders and analysts.
Episodes
Australia is in a surprisingly good position to weather the Trump administration’s trade policies, says Pendal’s head of government bonds TIM HEXT in this fast podcast
“We have reasons to be optimistic down here, albeit it's not going to be quite as good as it could have been," says Tim.
“We're going to get very close to all our long-term aspirations this year.
Inflation is expected to end the year around 2....
Fixed-income investors looking for lower yields – and therefore higher prices on their bond investments – may be disappointed with the recent cycle.
But investors need not be concerned, since conditions still favour a rate-cutting environment, says Amy Xie Patrick, who leads Pendal’s fixed-income strategies.
Underlying inflation is under control – supported by a looser US labour market which has not yet been...
Investors could not be blamed for feeling a bit queasy at Donald Trump’s whiplash approach to tariffs.
What does it mean for inflation and markets?
“The tariff threat does add to this argument that inflation isn't about to come down anytime soon,” says Pendal’s head of bond strategies Tim Hext.
“The market is right to be a little bit concerned. Obviously free trade – or some version of free ...
One of the surprises of 2024 was the absence of rate cuts in Australia.
What happened and how long will the Reserve Bank sit on its hands?
Pendal’s head of income strategies AMY XI PATRICK explains in this review of 2024 and outlook for 2025.
This is our final podcast for 2024. We wish our listeners a happy and safe Christmas and new year. We will return in 2025.
For years, Australian investors flocked to bank hybrid securities as a cornerstone of income-generating portfolios.
Hybrids — debt instruments issued by banks that can convert to equity in times of trouble — have been popular with everyday investors due to their accessibility.
But investors will soon need to find alternatives, after regulators announced plans to phase them out from 2027.
In her latest podcast, Pendal’s head of inco...
This week’s Aussie inflation data was a mixed bag. While the headline number dropped into the RBA’s target range at 2.8%, the trimmed measure remained above target at 3.5%.
It will take a few more quarters until the more important trimmed measure heads down towards 3%, says Pendal’s head of government bonds Tim Hext in a new fast podcast.
Tim doesn’t expect a rates move before the RBA’s February meeting. “There won't be enough info...
Pendal’s head of income strategies AMY XIE PATRICK explains the latest market volatility, rates outlook and why she believes investors should be thinking about their defensive allocation.
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Find out more about Pendal's fixed income strategies at pend.al/fixedinterest
Pendal is a global asset manager. Find out more at pendalgroup.com
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This podcast is for general information purposes only, should not be considered a...
August is a live meeting in terms of potential rate changes – and next week’s CPI figures will be key to the decision, says Pendal's head of bond strategies Tim Hext in this fast podcast.
A higher-than-expected CPI number could prompt a hike. A lower-than-expected number would likely mean rates stay where they are.
However, if an August rate hike eventuates, investors should largely ignore it, Tim argues.
“I think they will be cut...
Investors have been getting used to good news on inflation.
But does the latest US data suggest we’re getting ahead of ourselves?
In this new fast podcast Pendal’s head of bond strategies TIM HEXT reviews the evidence and explains why he still thinks there's juice left in bonds.
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Find out more about Pendal's fixed income strategies at pend.al/fixedinterest
Pendal is a global asset manager. Find out more at pendalgroup....
Reckon you’ve got 2024 figure out?
Stay on your toes, because markets could go in any direction this year, says Pendal’s head of income strategies AMY XIE PATRICK in our latest podcast.
In this edition Amy explains the risks that investors may not be considering and how she is preparing her income portfolios.
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Find out more about Pendal's fixed income strategies at pend.al/fixedinterest
Have investors missed the boat on bonds after they touched 5% in October?
No, says Pendal’s head of bond strategies Tim Hext. In this latest Pendal fast podcast he explains why.
"When I look across the spectrum of what you can buy in bonds, government bonds are around 4.5%, state government bonds 5.25% and bank debt around 6%.
"On term deposits, my question to investors would be: Okay, let's assume term deposits are at 5% and you'r...
US and local bond yields are hitting multi-year highs. Why is it happening and what’s next?
Resilience in the US economy is the main factor, says Pendal’s head of bond strategies Tim Hext.
That’s due to the dominance of fixed-rate loans there and Joe Biden's big-spending government.
Meanwhile the Australian economy is holding up better than expected and the fixed-rate cliff hasn’t impacted as much as people thought.
Bond investors ...
China’s political and economic outlook has a huge impact on Australian investors. In this new podcast, Pendal’s head of income strategies AMY XIE PATRICK explains the latest.
An excerpt:
Why doesn’t Beijing pump stimulus into the Chinese economy as other countries do?
“We have to remember that the Chinese political system is not a democratic system, and its principles are very socialist at heart,” says Pendal’s head of income strat...
You’re probably thinking “so far, so good” on rate rises and the economy.
No evidence yet of a sharp slow-down and fixed mortgage holders seem to be adjusting ok to higher rates, partly due to strong employment.
But we're only halfway through the six-month fixed-rate cliff period, points out Pendal’s head of government bond strategies TIM HEXT in this latest fast podcast.
“It's definitely too early to say there hasn't been any sign...
The Albanese government is getting ready to launch Australia’s first sovereign green bonds, which are designed to fund public net-zero projects.
As with all new green bond issuances, investors will be looking to make a good return and a positive impact.
When it comes to positive impact, investors should be looking “additionality” in the projects funded by Albo's green bonds, say Pendal’s head of credit and sustainable strategies Ge...
The RBA seems happy that inflation is heading in the right direction, but it’s a difficult path from here to the 2-3% band, notes Pendal’s head of government bond strategies Tim Hext.
A soft landing is more likely, but we're unlikely to see rates cuts unless the economy turns weaker.
Here's a quick overview from Pendal portfolio manager Tim Hext, who heads up government bond strategies for our Income and Fixed Interest team.
Inflation isn’t under control and the RBA still has work to do, argues Oliver Ge, an assistant portfolio manager with Pendal's income and fixed interest team
“I think at 4.1% we're still at least a couple of hikes away,” says Oliver in our latest fast podcast.
Oliver points to three things blunting the impact of rate rises:
“Firstly, the Australian economy is demonstrating a level of resilience that's greatly surpassed most expecta...
It looks like RBA boss Phil Lowe's “got one more hike he's itching to do” in July or August, says our head of government bond strategies Tim Hext in our latest fast podcast
“The inflation data will start to turn down from that point,” says Tim.
“The RBA should then use that as a reason to be on pause for the rest of the year.
“Looking further beyond, towards the middle of next year, I think what you're going to see is potentially t...
China has emerged quickly from the zero-Covid era, but a property slowdown is holding the economy back.
What does that mean for fixed income investors?
“We think there are many strong reasons both cyclically and structurally to be favouring fixed income and bonds in portfolios right now," argues Pendal's head of income strategies, Amy Xie Patrick.
“The way the China growth story is shaping up for 2023 presents as one of the top rea...
Consumers are feeling gloomy, but are we still headed for recession?
With inflation “sufficiently well-behaved”, the main factors to watch now are unemployment and wages, says our head of bond strategies Tim Hext in our latest fast podcast.
Here Tim explains the outlook for wages and jobs -- and what it tells us about the likelihood of recession in the US and Australia.
He also explains why we are unlikely to see rate cuts this yea...
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