The Point: Professional investing in Australia with Perpetual

Reckon you’ve got 2024 figure out?

Stay on your toes, because markets could go in any direction this year, says Pendal’s head of income strategies AMY XIE PATRICK in our latest podcast.

In this edition Amy explains the risks that investors may not be considering and how she is preparing her income portfolios.

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Find out more about Pendal's fixed income strategies at pend.al/fixedinterest

Pendal is a global asset man...

Have investors missed the boat on bonds after they touched 5% in October?

No, says Pendal’s head of bond strategies Tim Hext. In this latest Pendal fast podcast he explains why.

"When I look across the spectrum of what you can buy in bonds, government bonds are around 4.5%, state government bonds 5.25% and bank debt around 6%.

"On term deposits, my question to investors would be: Okay, let's assume term deposits are at 5% and yo...

US and local bond yields are hitting multi-year highs. Why is it happening and what’s next?

Resilience in the US economy is the main factor, says Pendal’s head of bond strategies Tim Hext.

That’s due to the dominance of fixed-rate loans there and Joe Biden's big-spending government.

Meanwhile the Australian economy is holding up better than expected and the fixed-rate cliff hasn’t impacted as much as people thought.

Bond invest...

China’s political and economic outlook has a huge impact on Australian investors. In this new podcast, Pendal’s head of income strategies AMY XIE PATRICK explains the latest.

An excerpt:

Why doesn’t Beijing pump stimulus into the Chinese economy as other countries do?

“We have to remember that the Chinese political system is not a democratic system, and its principles are very socialist at heart,” says Pendal’s head of income st...

You’re probably thinking “so far, so good” on rate rises and the economy.

No evidence yet of a sharp slow-down and fixed mortgage holders seem to be adjusting ok to higher rates, partly due to strong employment.

But we're only halfway through the six-month fixed-rate cliff period, points out Pendal’s head of government bond strategies TIM HEXT in this latest fast podcast.

“It's definitely too early to say there hasn't been any s...

The Albanese government is getting ready to launch Australia’s first sovereign green bonds, which are designed to fund public net-zero projects.

As with all new green bond issuances, investors will be looking to make a good return and a positive impact.

When it comes to positive impact, investors should be looking “additionality” in the projects funded by Albo's green bonds, say Pendal’s head of credit and sustainable strategies ...

The RBA seems happy that inflation is heading in the right direction, but it’s a difficult path from here to the 2-3% band, notes Pendal’s head of government bond strategies Tim Hext.

A soft landing is more likely, but we're unlikely to see rates cuts unless the economy turns weaker. 

Here's a quick overview from Pendal portfolio manager Tim Hext, who heads up government bond strategies for our Income and Fixed Interest team. 

Inflation isn’t under control and the RBA still has work to do, argues Oliver Ge, an assistant portfolio manager with Pendal's income and fixed interest team

“I think at 4.1% we're still at least a couple of hikes away,” says Oliver in our latest fast podcast.

Oliver points to three things blunting the impact of rate rises:

“Firstly, the Australian economy is demonstrating a level of resilience that's greatly surpassed most expe...

It looks like RBA boss Phil Lowe's “got one more hike he's itching to do” in July or August, says our head of government bond strategies Tim Hext in our latest fast podcast

“The inflation data will start to turn down from that point,” says Tim.

“The RBA should then use that as a reason to be on pause for the rest of the year.

“Looking further beyond, towards the middle of next year, I think what you're going to see is potentiall...

China has emerged quickly from the zero-Covid era, but a property slowdown is holding the economy back.

What does that mean for fixed income investors?

“We think there are many strong reasons both cyclically and structurally to be favouring fixed income and bonds in portfolios right now," argues Pendal's head of income strategies, Amy Xie Patrick.

“The way the China growth story is shaping up for 2023 presents as one of the top ...

Consumers are feeling gloomy, but are we still headed for recession?

With inflation “sufficiently well-behaved”, the main factors to watch now are unemployment and wages, says our head of bond strategies Tim Hext in our latest fast podcast.

Here Tim explains the outlook for wages and jobs -- and what it tells us about the likelihood of recession in the US and Australia.

He also explains why we are unlikely to see rate cuts this ...

How should fixed interest investors think about the turmoil among US regional banks? In our latest fast podcast, Pendal assistant portfolio manager Oliver Ge gives a plain-language explanation.

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Find out more about Pendal's fixed income strategies at pend.al/fixedinterest

Pendal is an independent, global asset manager. Find out more at pendalgroup.com

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This podcast is for general information purposes only, should n...

There are a mind-boggling number of issues investors need to stay on top of in 2023: the potential for recession, government intervention, wages growth, inflation and rates to name a few.

And there are differing views on these issues across the investing spectrum.

To cut through the noise and find some answers, our latest podcast brings together two of Pendal’s top investment managers: our head of equities Crispin Murray and head...

An economic recession is highly likely in 2023, says Pendal’s head of income strategies Amy Xie Patrick. How should investors respond?

EXCERPT:

We think an economic recession is highly, highly likely in 2023.

How should investors be positioning their portfolios?

An easy decision is to consider long-duration government bonds, says Amy.

Regardless of whether your view is of a mild or a deep recession, bonds should rally when rec...

Internet search has been upended by ChatGPT – an example of “generative artificial intelligence” that can scan existing knowledge and create new and original data such as images, text and music.

Will programs such as ChatGPT bring real, sweeping change to everything we know? Or is it just the next dot com bubble?

Pendal’s head of global equities ASHLEY PITTARD explains in this new Pendal Fast Podcast.

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Find out about Ashl...

In our final fast podcast for the year, Pendal’s head of multi-asset Michael Blayney talks about the lessons of 2022, how he’s valuing major asset classes right now and suitable portfolio settings.

Pendal's fast podcast series will return in 2023.

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Find out about Pendal’s multi asset funds at pend.al/multiasset

Pendal is an independent, global asset manager. Find out more at pendalgroup.com

See omnystudio.com/listener for ...

What will prompt central banks to stop hiking interest rates altogether? Look to wages for the answer, says Pendal’s head of income strategies AMY XIE PATRICK

Excerpt:

“The US Fed is looking for inflation not only peaking but coming down very convincingly to its 2% target,” says our head of income strategies, Amy Xi Patrick in her latest fast podcast.

“Wage growth in Australia is only at around about 2.5% to 3%.

“The RBA is com...

There are signs that inflation has peaked and is due to come off in the next few quarters.

That would invariably take us to a position, maybe in Q2 2023, where it looks quite compelling for us to own bonds, says Oliver Ge, an assistant portfolio manager with Pendal's Income and Fixed Interest team.

"At that point you’d already see inflation pressures come off and growth indicators start to materially deteriorate.

"Then central b...

What do this week's Budget and inflation numbers — and next week’s likely 25-point rate rise — mean for 2023?

And how will that impact the role of bonds in portfolios?

Here's a quick explanation from Pendal’s head of government bond strategies Tim Hext.

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Find out more about Pendal's fixed income strategies at pend.al/fixedinterest

Pendal is an independent, global asset manager. Find out more at pendalgroup.com

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