Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast

The Inflation Guy starts with a general comment on where markets are and what to look for as we contemplate the next move. But the really meaty bit is where he talks about recent Fed research (finally concluding what the Inflation Guy has been telling you for years) about the skewness of the distribution of price changes in the CPI suggesting that maybe there is something more going on than a placid and obedient return to 2%...

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Thank you for all the cards and letters. The Inflation Guy dropped in today, to talk about the AI Menace as well as yesterday's CPI report and the near-term trajectory of inflation. This is not a return to a full-time podcasting schedule, but it's at least a positive sign!

NOTES

Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (February 2026)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2026/03/11/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-february-2026/ )

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It's hard to believe we waited two months for that. The Inflation Guy pulls no punches here. Although he is a serious defender of the Bureau of Labor Statistics' CPI team, he did not mince words in talking about today's report. But it's still data, and the IG tells you what it means.

NOTES

Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (November 2025)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/12/18/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-novemb...

This CPI report is potentially unusual and extra-valuable since there is a chance there won't be a CPI released next month. It's a good thing, then, that the current data was a little softer-than-expected since that helps to lock in Fed eases (although the Fed doesn't really care about the exact level of inflation any more as long as it isn't clearly headed higher). Hear the Inflation Guy break it down this month, and savor it in c...

The Inflation Guy was sorely tempted to title this podcast, "Two Beautiful Women," because he's not above being clickbaity. But he also cannot resist a pun, and that idea won. This episode after all is about AI, and one of the 'leakages' that people don't tend to think about but that is evident in the world at large when you look at how people are using AI. The Inflation Guy explains. He doesn't talk much about inflation in the epi...

But not 'Incompetence'! We didn't use the word 'Incompetence' in the title of the episode!

We have to admit, it was tempting. But of all of the examples of incompetence that spring to mind from the last thirty-five years the Inflation Guy has been watching markets and politics and economists, the current examples just don't rank in the top tier. Now, the COVID years...that was some good incompetence there! Not that we are nostalgic...

In his role as middle-school cross country coach, the Inflation Guy is fond of reminding runners that they should "get comfortable with being uncomfortable." The same, it seems, is true of inflation! From the lens of median inflation, it has leveled out around 3.6% and there are no real signs and no real math that bring it lots lower any time soon. But more interesting perhaps is how the Fed reaction function has changed. Listen to...

For the first time in a while, core CPI exceeded expectations. For the first time in a while, core services and core goods both accelerated on a year-over-year basis. But what is not at all new is that median inflation is settling in the high-3% range, roughly 3.65% y/y with today's report. Get used to it! And get used to the Federal Reserve easing anyway...

NOTES

Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (July 2025...

How important is 30% of the CPI? How much should we care about the summary dismissal of the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics? Is this a sign that the end of government credibility (okay, stop laughing) is nigh?

The Inflation Guy addresses these questions and also muses about the out-of-sync pendulums that are currently swinging in our economy and the effect of these on the overall outcomes. 

NOTES

Video of spontaneous synchro...

It's time for the monthly CPI report! While the core CPI was another (small) downward surprise, the Inflation Guy in this podcast explains why the internals of the number (and the optics going forward, see Ep. 145) are actually not very good and that there is not at the moment any clear path to get to the Fed's 2% inflation goal. He discusses the policy implications of that - along with the effect of tariffs and of 'mass' deportati...

The Inflation Guy does not typically do a CPI preview episode, and this isn't one either. However, he felt it was important to telegraph to investors who aren't actually inflation traders that there are some non-tariff reasons that the CPI is about to re-accelerate for at least the balance of the year. Even though this is known (and priced into inflation swaps), there's every chance that when it happens it will surprise some people...

If this keeps up, we might all long to have the machines take over.

In this episode, the Inflation Guy discusses the victory of a socialist candidate in the New York City mayoral primary this week - and, even if we would like to hope that he has no chance of winning in the general election...he does. Ergo, we should probably think a little bit about what socialism means for inflation. 

Really, nothing about socialism is great. And ...

Where is the effect of the tariffs? Where is the effect from "Most Favored Nation?" What is going on with this month's CPI report? The Inflation Guy addresses these questions, and more. And on top of that, apologizes! It's a don't-miss episode!

NOTES

Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (May 2025)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/06/11/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-may-2025/ )

Ep. 140: White Whale Spotted - Inflat...

Sure, there's no question that screaming about how tariffs are higher than they've been since the Great Depression, or that shelves are going to be empty of product by June, or how "I won't be able to buy my son the GI Joe with the Kung Fu grip", attracts more listeners. But the reality is that the whole tariff hullabaloo is likely overwrought. Certainly, even though tariffs on Canada and Mexico were in place for some time prior to...

For a while, we are going to be returning periodically to the question of how the economy, markets, and inflation respond to economic policy volatility. In this episode, the Inflation Guy talks about some mildly disturbing signs that manufacturing leadership may not be as adaptable as it once was, and as he had previously assumed. And that's all bad news, both from an economic fragility standpoint (it could mean the garden-variety ...

Today's podcast is a very important one. Coming 298 days after episode 113 (this may be a future trivia answer, but probably not), in this episode the Inflation Guy announces the launch of a project of great importance and significance to those who worry about inflation and are concerned about defending their money.

Please read the important disclaimer below.

NOTES

USDi Partners website: https://usdicoin.com/

Press Release Noting L...

Welcome to CPI Day - this one, in the midst of a head-spinning market turmoil. This moves the CPI report back a little bit in terms of its importance, but the underlying inflation pressures and the effect on prices of tariffs, going forward, are a big part of the reason for the market turmoil.

Uncertainty implies lower prices for risky assets, and we are seeing that. It also has implications for inflation itself, through velocity,...

Tomorrow, April 2nd, is 'Reciprocal Tariff Day,' when the US will impose tariffs designed to equalize (how well, no one knows) the tariffs faced by foreign imports to the US with the tariffs faced by US exports to other countries. From everything you read, this is going to be a calamity. But the Inflation Guy has a different take, and it comes from an understanding of how manufacturing actually works - with job 1 always being Make ...

The pricing and distribution of pharmaceuticals is one of the most opaque major pricing systems in the United States. There are oligopolies at the wholesaler level and at the Pharmacy Benefits Manager (PBM) level, which completely control consumer-level pricing. The Inflation Guy explains this system, which has attracted the ire of President Trump in the past since Americans also pay much higher prices for medications than consumer...