Global Research Unlocked

Solar, Storage, and Nuclear: The Next Clean Tech Wave

Surging AI demand is creating volatility and speed-to-power challenges, while grid delays push onsite generation forward. Our Clean Tech Symposium highlighted a major shift in data center power strategies, with the percentage of facilities using onsite gas potentially doubling in the short term. But, its role as bridge vs. temporary depends on economics: transmission and distrib...

Mark Capleton (Global Head of Inflation Linked Strategy) and Meghan Swiber (Senior US Rates Strategist) join for a discussion on what to expect for inflation markets next year. In the US, we see value in real yield with inflation is still above Fed target and cuts expected. Cross market, we think the spread between Euro and US inflation priced too low.  

 

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Overall spending remains resilient, lux. spend rebounding

David Tinsley, Senior Economist at the Bank of America Institute (not part of BofA Global Research) joins to discuss the latest Institute employment and spend data. The Institute data suggests payroll growth held steady in Sep and Oct, though it has clearly slowed since early 2025. David offers detail and di...

The longest ever US government shutdown has ended after 43 days. The reopening sees the resumption of US data releases, with the September labor market report released on Thursday. We review what we have learnt from the report, as well as the claims data that is also now being published. We discuss what this means for the US rates market and the US dollar.

 

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Healthcare's need for efficiencies clear, finally happening

AI has held promise within the healthcare industry for a few years, but Alec Stranahan suggests that the rate and breadth of AI adoption across the industry is growing at a faster pace than ever before. As users of the U.S. healthcare system can attest, there are many inefficiencies and we discuss the areas where AI may be most useful in improving healthcare productivity. ...

Investments from the US gov't make this time different

The recent US-China agreement may secure short-term access for rare earth elements, but it doesn't alter the strategic need for domestic supply chains. Lawson and Michael highlight the complexity, cost, and time required to build out mining, midstream, and magnet-making capacity, highlighting that China's success today is a result of a commitment made back in the 1980s. US init...

The budget is the main event risk for the UK market. We discuss what we expect Chancellor Reeves to deliver, what this means for the Bank of England, Gilt issuance, rate markets and the currency.

 

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Tariffs imposed under the International Emergency and Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) account for about 9.5pp of our estimated 14.7pp effective tariff rate after the reduction in fentanyl tariffs on China. Therefore, the Supreme Court's decision could have important implications for activity, inflation, deficits, debt, interest rates, and the dollar. We discuss risks and scenarios after the oral hearings.

As expected US Treasury mainta...

We discuss the FOMC rate and QT decisions. US front-end rates now look much more fairly priced. QT decision disappointed us and we remain concerned about US funding markets. ECB meeting was a non-event, but Euro Area data surprises on both activity and inflation mean that the hawks will likely retain the narrative into the December meeting. We outline what this means for our ECB call and why we still see value in EUR rate markets.

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Years of equity gains has wealth effect bolstering spend

Aggregate consumer data remains solid despite signs of a slowdown in labor markets.  Declining labor supply accounts for some of the labor weakness but other metrics, including the ratio of job vacancies to unemployment, suggest softness in demand as well. We examine why consumption has held up despite these signs of weakness and part of it comes down to the wealth effect, wh...

Electrification requires copper but supply picture is dim

The outlook for oil prices is bearish in the near term owing to excess supply, but beyond that, prices should firm as supply growth slows. Between geopolitics, economic growth and the dollar, there are plausible scenarios for both higher and lower oil, which Francisco discusses in some detail. And while Francisco and the commodity strategy team came into 2025 bullish on gold...

Takeaways from our inaugural APAC Conference

BofA Global Research hosted its inaugural APAC Conference earlier this month. Timing was opportune. The Chinese CSI 300 Equity Index has outperformed the S&P year-to-date, following years in which the opposite was true and that's helped to pique investor interest. Over 1,200 investors and 300 corporates attended. Winnie Wu joins us to discuss her takeaways from the conference and her...

Stablecoin progress to come with time and reg. clarity

Ebrahim Poonawala has been busy exploring the topic of stablecoins and the impact on banks. He's hosted expert events, started a series of notes on the topic and has communicated with bank CEOs on developments and potential bank offerings. Ebrahim joins the podcast to talk about regulatory progress but the hurdles that remain before consumers and businesses can start using stab...

Still managing to add value for patients and payor

While US markets make new highs, the S&P managed care index is half the level it was a year ago. We talk to Kevin Fischbeck about what's driven the substantial weakness and whether deterioration in medical loss ratios (MLR) is temporary or something that will last and prevent these companies from recapturing past margins. Kevin also discusses the different markets served by man...