Global Research Unlocked
Listen and subscribe to Global Research Unlocked. A podcast from BofA Global Research. Nuanced insights that can help you chart the right path. Our industry-leading analysts discuss what’s emerging – from risks and opportunities to growth themes like AI and energy transition.
Episodes
We're in the midst of tax season, and BAC data helps us track changes in refunds, payments, and the impact on spending. Refund growth is in the high single digits y/y, but lower tax payments bring total stimulus closer to the ~25% increase we had been expecting. Aditya Bhave explains how lower payments shift the timing of benefits, po...
Private credit has remained a persistent concern for banks, and recent events have brought those worries back into focus. At the same time, new fears around AI-driven competition and potential credit deterioration have weighed on the group. Ebrahim Poonawala joins us to discuss how management teams addressed these issues at th...
Please join Ralf Preusser in conversation with Alex Cohen, Stephen Juneau and Meghan Swiber to discuss the US labor market. The US rate market continues to look for an anchor against the backdrop of the twin uncertainty shocks of AI and now Iran. Given developments in the Middle East it may seem backward looking to focus on payrolls, and retail sales. We disagree. Data remains of utmost importance in providing some signal about the...
Please join Ralf Preusser for a discussion on global curve dynamics with Meghan Swiber, Sphia Salim and Paul Ciana. We will explore the recent shift from steepening to flattening pressures and the possible reasons behind it across regions. We will also talk about the technicals and trade implications across US, UK and EUR rates.
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Please join Ralf Preusser in conversation with Yuri Seliger and Meghan Swiber to discuss supple and demand in US bond markets. Strong supply in credit has been well absorbed, helped by a significant reduction in risk delivery to the private sector by US Treasury. Inflows are robust, supported by attractive yields and until recently lower rate vol. We can also observe growing appetite to extend along the UST curve, in particular amo...
Please join Ralf Preusser for a discussion on the German outlook with Evelyn Herrmann, Sphia Salim and Michalis Rousakis. We will explore the view on the German fiscal implementation, its impact on the growth profile in 2026-27 and the challenges ahead. We will also present our EUR rate and German yield forecasts as well as our takeaways for the EURUSD outlook.
Disc...
Improving fundys, metals among reasons for EM optimism
David Hauner argues that Emerging Markets (EM) remain a compelling opportunity, supported by favorable macro, valuation, and structural tailwinds. A weaker USD, low real US rates, and improving fundamentals across many EM economies echo past multi‑year periods of strong EM performance. After more than a decade of underallocation, global investors are beginning to return, though...
Cyclicals vs. Tech: Positioning for broadening growth
Mark Cabana and Savita Subramanian discuss whether there's evidence of a cyclical upswing in economic data, and the extent to which that's impacting companies and stocks. They also delve into whether such improvement is even as positive as it would seem given it could result in higher long rates and a Fed that's less able to cut. It's important to note that our economics team ex...
Please join Ralf Preusser in discussion with Aditya Bhave and Mark Cabana to discuss the nomination of Kevin Warsh for Fed chair. We will analyse the implications for monetary policy, the outlook for the Fed's balance sheet and the market reaction in US Treasury markets to the announcement. We will also preview US data and review the quarterly refunding announcement.
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Please join Ralf Preusser in discussion with Paul Ciana, Alex Cohen and Adarsh Sinha. The team will address the rate checks in USDJPY and its impact on not just the yen but also the dollar. We will give thoughts on the effectiveness of FX interventions and lessons from the past. We will address the US government's FX policy and longer-term USD outlook, as well as the potential implications of the election in Japan. Finally, we do s...
Please join Sphia Salim for a discussion with Takayasu Kudo and Shusuke Yamada on Japanese developments this week, including the major long-end steepening. We will review the BoJ meeting, explore what the Feb 8th election, announced this week, could mean for Japanese fiscal policy and thereby the risks it presents for JGB yields, the curve and JPY.
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AI Fuels Power Growth, Politics Shape the Path
As utilities enter 2026, the investment narrative evolves from a pure growth story to one defined by smarter positioning and selective opportunity. While AI‑driven power demand and data center expansion remain powerful secular tailwinds, political scrutiny about electricity affordability-especially in states with tight...
Takes from Defense Forum and Private Company Meetings
US defense is in the midst of an upcycle, driven by an increasingly assertive policy stance, the potential for a step‑change in federal defense spending, and accelerating innovation across traditional and non‑traditional contractors. Earlier this month, Ron Epstein hosted discussions at the 18th BofA Global Rese...
Please join Ralf Preusser in discussion with Mark Capleton, Sphia Salim and Meghan Swiber, analysing global yield curve dynamics. We will explain our outlook for curves across USD, EUR and GBP. We will focus on what we have learnt so far this year and on risks to our forecasts, including issuance patterns, investor behaviour (incl Dutch pension reform) and the policy environment (in particular in the US).
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Please join Ralf Preusser in conversation with Aditya Bhave and Mark Cabana after the US labor market report. The team will discuss the US payroll print in detail and give their thoughts on what this is likely to mean for the Fed and the US rate market. We will also elaborate on what we have learnt about the US economy over the holidays and why this doesn't make the Fed's job any easier.
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It may have seemed as though 2025 would have been a challenging year for lithium but North American electric vehicle production accounted for only about 10% of the global total, even prior to the expiration of the $7500 subsidy. That's one reason that equities tied to the metal have fared well. Chinese EVs and battery storage, a beneficiary of data center investment, are much more impo...
Please join Ralf Preusser in conversation with Paul Ciana. Paul will talk through his views for 2026 across rates, FX, commodities and equities. Paul will also outline how to use technical analysis and leverage multiple indicators, methodologies, tools, sentiment, and positioning to come up with his high conviction views.
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Earlier this month, BofA Global Research published a note with 10 of the key views outlined in 2026 macro Year Ahead reports. This podcast features seven strategists and economists discussing certain of those themes and offering the primary risks to the views that they foresee. We start with our view on U.S. growth, where we're more bullish than consensus, then offer support for that op...
Ralf Preusser is joined in discussion by Adarsh Sinha and Mark Cabana. We will review the outlook for US rates and the US dollar after this week's FOMC meeting. We also analyse the motivation and implications behind the Fed’s new Reserve Management Purchases. Finally, we will also discuss the dramatic repricing of the policy outlook for the RBA, preview next week's BoJ meeting and outline our views on GBP.
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Surging AI demand is creating volatility and speed-to-power challenges, while grid delays push onsite generation forward. Our Clean Tech Symposium highlighted a major shift in data center power strategies, with the percentage of facilities using onsite gas potentially doubling in the short term. But, its role as bridge vs. temporary depends on economics: transmission and distrib...
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