Global Research Unlocked

Long end of Tsy curve faces supply/demand imbalance

As tariff fears have moved to the background, a different economic concern has moved to the foreground-growing fiscal deficits and the impact on interest rates. Public debt-to-GDP stood at 98% last year and is set to rise further. We discuss why deficits have captured the market's attention today and whether growth aspects of the budget plan could be offset by the higher interest ...

Smart glasses may weigh on phone sales, lift Internet use

Smart glasses could be the next big opportunity in personal technology. Leading tech companies are focused on the form factor and functionality like augmented reality and 4K video may follow today's applications, which include AI assistants, music playback, phone calls and hands-free texting. Ultimately, these devices could stretch out the smart phone replacement cycle, like...

USD overweight exposure is now normalizing

Even as equities have rallied substantially from April lows, recovery in the dollar index, or DXY, has underwhelmed and the currency sits near the lowest level it's been in three years. Alex Cohen believes that while there are cyclical reasons for the dollar weakness, there's also been a bigger structural rethink on the currency by investors from the push toward de-globalization and from q...

Looming tariffs lead to renewed focus on transfer pricing

Multinational companies have used transfer pricing as a way to reduce tax bills. Transferring a product from a lower tax jurisdiction allows profits to be taxed at the lower corporate rate, so a higher price can mean greater tax savings. But tariffs would be based on the higher price, meaning that some of the same companies using this practice to lower tax bills will also fa...

Budget conscious consumers indulge in healthier foods

There's been a shift in snacking towards healthier options and away from some of the convenience store classics. A stretched consumer seeking value for their dollar seems to be allocating spend to cleaner alternatives. These often contain more protein and less of what's perceived as harmful. Rising GLP-1 (glucagon-like peptide-1) usage may be a minor contributor to these shifts ...

Euro defense spend benefits US contractors near-term

European plans to spend more on defense as a percentage of GDP were hatched in the immediate aftermath of the Ukraine invasion. More recently, the German Parliament agreed to reforms that allow for even more spending on defense. But for a number of reasons, Europe would like to keep more...

Dubai is embracing tech, should investors embrace AI?

Our Global Investment Summit in Dubai offered attendees some perspective on what Dubai and the UAE are doing to advance AI. Panels also offered a look at how the technology is being used beyond the borders of the UAE and threats it brings. Sonali Thiesen, Global Head of FICC e-Trading and Markets Strategic Investments and Haim Israel were panelists at the Summit. Haim discusses ...

An interesting time to explore other shores

We recently hosted a two-day Global Investor Summit in Dubai. Panels as well as formal and informal discussions touched on everything from the investment merits of Dubai and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) to US policy to evolving views on non-US markets. Michael Hartnett discusses his latest views on international markets and how investors are reacting to uninspired price action from ...

Improved SMB macro positive for software but risks exist

Small businesses have faced challenges, from higher costs to difficult hiring to higher rates and mixed demand. The Bank of America Institute examines the bank's proprietary data to better understand the US economy. Based on data through February, the Institute found that for the first time in three years, deposit growth among sm...

Tariff fears, years of US optimism create opening for EM

David Hauner has been bullish on emerging markets since the US Presidential inauguration, and that view has gotten more attention with performance of markets so far this year. Investors have been seeking out markets outside of the US and recent US policy uncertainty is one of the many factors causing this shift. David points to improvements in China and Europe, the inability ...

Reconstruction should boost demand for certain metals

An end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict would have an impact beyond the most important, which is ending the bloodshed. Russian natural gas could start to flow through Ukraine and into Europe once again, pushing Europe gas prices significantly lower, positively impacting European industry and dampening inflation. Oil supplies would be impacted as well and Francisco Blanch discusses...

Yes, there is a compelling case for stocks outside the US

Investors have record exposure to US stocks according to the latest Global Fund Manager Survey. The US dollar, in real effective terms, is at all-time highs by some measures. Several of our strategists believe international equities can begin to outperform and that the US dollar could peak. US policy could help, and the Global Investment Strategy team expects a softening of ...