This will make you a better decision maker | Annie Duke (author of “Thinking in Bets” and “Quit”, former pro poker player)

Annie Duke is a former professional poker player, a decision-making expert, and a special partner at First Round Capital. She is the author of Thinking in Bets (a national bestseller) and Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away and the co-founder of the Alliance for Decision Education, a nonprofit whose mission is to improve lives by empowering students through decision skills education. In our conversation, we cover:

• What Annie learned from the late Daniel Kahneman

• The power of pre-mortems and “kill criteria”

• The relationship between money and happiness

• The power of “mental time travel”

• The nominal group technique for better decision quality

• How First Round Capital improved their decision-making process

• Many tactical decision-making frameworks

—

Brought to you by:

• Vanta—Automate compliance. Simplify security.

• UserTesting—Human understanding. Human experiences.

• LinkedIn Ads—Reach professionals and drive results for your business

—

Find the transcript at: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/making-better-decisions-annie-duke

—

Where to find Annie Duke:

• X: https://twitter.com/AnnieDuke

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/annie-duke/

• Website: https://www.annieduke.com/

• Substack: https://www.annieduke.com/substack/

—

Where to find Lenny:

• Newsletter: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com

• X: https://twitter.com/lennysan

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lennyrachitsky/

—

In this episode, we cover:

(00:00) Annie’s background

(03:53) Lessons from Daniel Kahneman: humility, curiosity, and open-mindedness

(09:15) The importance of unconditional love in parenting

(15:15) Mental time travel and “nevertheless”

(20:06) The extent of improvement possible in decision-making 

(24:54) Independent brainstorming for better decisions

(35:36) Making sure people feel heard

(42:41) The “3Ds” framework to make better decisions

(44:49) Decision quality

(55:46) Improving decision-making at First Round Capital

(01:05:05) Using pre-mortems and kill criteria

(01:10:15) Making explicit what’s implicit

(01:10:55) The challenges of quitting and knowing when to walk away

(01:19:23) Where to find Annie

—

Referenced:

• Daniel Kahneman, Who Plumbed the Psychology of Economics, Dies at 90: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/27/business/daniel-kahneman-dead.html

• Adversarial collaboration: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adversarial_collaboration

• Does more money correlate with greater happiness?: .css-j9qmi7{display:-webkit-box;display:-webkit-flex;display:-ms-flexbox;display:flex;-webkit-flex-direction:row;-ms-flex-direction:row;flex-direction:row;font-weight:700;margin-bottom:1rem;margin-top:2.8rem;width:100%;-webkit-box-pack:start;-ms-flex-pack:start;-webkit-justify-content:start;justify-content:start;padding-left:5rem;}@media only screen and (max-width: 599px){.css-j9qmi7{padding-left:0;-webkit-box-pack:center;-ms-flex-pack:center;-webkit-justify-content:center;justify-content:center;}}.css-j9qmi7 svg{fill:#27292D;}.css-j9qmi7 .eagfbvw0{-webkit-align-items:center;-webkit-box-align:center;-ms-flex-align:center;align-items:center;color:#27292D;}