April 29, 2024 • 16 mins
Your morning briefing, the business news you need in just 15 minutes.On today's podcast:
(1) Bloomberg Economics' Fed sentiment index — powered by a natural language processing algorithm based on more than 60,000 Fed headlines — shows that in December, Powell delivered a major pivot. By hinting at a swifter shift toward rate cuts, he gave markets a boost and helped the economy dodge a downturn.
(2) The yen swung in holiday-thinned market conditions, punching through 160 per dollar to touch its weakest in 34 years before erasing all its losses for the day and rebounding strongly.
(3) Scotland's First Minister Humza Yousaf may step down, according to UK media reports. The Sunday Times says he's preparing to resign today, but the BBC says the SNP leader has not yet made a final decision on his position.
(4) Elon Musk's surprise visit to China appears to have paid immediate dividends, with Tesla Inc. clearing two key hurdles to introduce its driver-assistance system to the world's biggest auto market.
(5) British taxpayers are paying more and more for a planning system buckling under the strain of years of under funding and increasingly strident NIMBYism.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg
dayba Qit podcast, available every morning on Apple, Spotify or
whatever you listen. It's Monday, the twenty ninth of April
in London. I'm Caroline Hipkiff.
Speaker 2 (00:18):
And I'm Stephen Carroll. Coming up today.
Speaker 3 (00:20):
What sixty thousand headlines analyzed by Bloomberg say about the
Federal reserves?
Speaker 1 (00:26):
Next move, The Japanese yen rebounds after dropping to a
thirty four year low against the dollar.
Speaker 3 (00:32):
Plus shaky foundations why the UK's broken planning system is
costing taxpayers more than ever.
Speaker 1 (00:39):
Let's start with a roundup of our top stories.
Speaker 3 (00:41):
An analysis of more than sixty thousand Federal Reserve news
headlines shows that Jerome Powell's words in December hinting at
a swifter pivot towards rate cuts, gave markets a boost
and likely helped the US economy dodge a downturn. Bloomberg
Economics FED Sentiment Index paradise by a natural language processing
algorithm shows that while Powell's words led to a significant
(01:05):
cut in borrowing costs, they also probably added about half
a percentage point to inflation over the year. Despite the
Fed Chair being forced into a reversal of some of
his comments this month, Bloomberg's analysis shows that Powell has
only undone a fraction of the stimulus unleashed by his
December press conference.
Speaker 4 (01:23):
Well.
Speaker 1 (01:24):
The research comes ahead of Wednesday's FED decision, where investors
will once again be scrutinizing the chair's comments for clues
about how long the central bank keeps rates high. Here's
what Goldman's Chief Asia economist Andrew Tilton is expecting.
Speaker 4 (01:40):
He needs to keep the options open for the FED
after a set of upside surprises to inflation in the
first quarter. We don't know for sure whether it we'll
see inflation down to target in time for the FED
to begin cutting by midyear. Our forecast we think the
Fed starts cutting in July. We think we'll see a
lower run rate of inflation in Q two and beyond,
(02:00):
but that's still a forecast.
Speaker 5 (02:02):
Not a fact.
Speaker 1 (02:02):
Andrew Tilton's outlook comes as markets suggests that Fed policymakers
have shifted the debate from how many times as central
bank will cut rates to whether to ease at all
this year. Swaps traders now see only one reduction for
twenty twenty four. Despite increased pessimism, though on easing. Early
results from the current reporting season suggests eighty one percent
(02:24):
of US companies are outperforming expectations even against the backdrop
of elevated rates.
Speaker 3 (02:30):
They've been major swings and the value of the yen
in trading today, the Japanese currency weakening past one hundred
and sixty to the dollar for the first time since
nineteen ninety before strongly rebounding. Traders are on high alert
for signs of intervention from Japanese authorities. Our Markets Live
Asia lead Garfield Reynolds says they don't have a lot
of options considering the wide gulf and interest rates with
(02:51):
the United States.
Speaker 5 (02:53):
Yes, the BOJO is on a tightening path, but that's
a slow path that makes it hard for the Ministry
of Finance to come in strongly to drive the dollar
yen down, especially when everything else is busy driving the
dollar up against everything that's been work.
Speaker 2 (03:11):
Scarf Ranald was there last week.
Speaker 3 (03:12):
The Bank of Japan indicated financial conditions will remain easy,
though policymakers have repeatedly warned that depreciation won't be tolerated
if it goes too far too fast.
Speaker 1 (03:24):
Now to politics that Scotland's first Minister, hums A Yusif,
may step down, according to UK media reports. The Sunday
Times says he's preparing to resign today, but the BBC
say that the SNP leader has not yet made a
final decision on his position. The speculation comes Asham's the
use of prepares to face two no confidence votes this week.
(03:46):
Former chief of staff to Nicholas Sturgeon, Liz Lloyd Toblinberg
even surviving the votes would bring further uncertainty.
Speaker 6 (03:54):
For Yousef if you to that the government is fundamentally
unstable cannot govern, essentially in hock to Alex Ammon's Alba Party.
There will be people on his own ventures who will
not be happy with that. So he's kind of stuck
between a rock and a hard place.
Speaker 1 (04:11):
Liz Lloyd, speaking there on Bloomberg's UK Politics podcast. Yusuf
had been trying to rebuild the SNP's image after a
year of turmoil in the wake of the departure of
a longtime leader, Nikola Sturgeon.
Speaker 3 (04:23):
Roinld Geiger already owns more than seventy percent of lock
Sititan now, the Skincare chairman reportedly is considering an offer
for the shares he doesn't already own through an investment vehicle.
Bloomberg's team at a BAIO has the details.
Speaker 7 (04:37):
The billionaire chairman of skincare brand Loxi ten has his
site set on taking the company private. Sources say that
an offer could soon be made, valuing the firm at
around seven billion dollars. Blackstone and Goldman Sachs are poised
to fund the buyout, providing a total of one point
six billion dollars. Bloomberg has learned. This is the second
(04:57):
time this month that Geiger has reported come close to
a deal to take LuxI ten private. In London, Tea
Adebayo Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 1 (05:07):
The United States is stepping up the push for both
a girls A ceasefire and for the release of hostages.
Israel's Foreign minister says that if there is a hostage deal,
they will suspend a planned invasion of the girls and
city of Rafa. Bloombergs Ed Baxter has more.
Speaker 8 (05:23):
This comes with Secretary of Sir Anthony Blincoln visiting Israel
today and meeting with Israeli officials. The White House says
Israel has now agreed to hear concerns NSA spokesman John
Kirby says six weeks.
Speaker 9 (05:34):
If we can get that in place, then that gives
you six weeks of peace. It gives you no fighting
for six weeks, and that includes no fighting in Rafa.
And what we're hoping is that after six weeks of
a temporary ceasefire, we can maybe get something more enduring
in place.
Speaker 8 (05:47):
Kirby says Israel has agreed that there will be no
attack on Rafa until the US concerns are heard. He
says we'll see where that goes at Baxter Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 1 (05:57):
Meanwhile, the US diplomatic effort comes as The New York
Times reports that Israel believes the International Criminal Court is
preparing to issue arrest warrens. The warrants would be for
senior Israeli government officials on charges related to the conflict
with Hamas, according to five Israeli and foreign officials.
Speaker 3 (06:14):
Bloomberg has learned that Tesla will partner with bay Do
to bring its assisted driving feature to China after CEO
Elon Musk made a surprise visit to the country. The
move may generate so much needed revenue for the electric
car maker as it faces stiff competition from rivals like expung,
Jaumi and Huaweis spoke only very briefly to reporters on
the visit to praise China's EV firms.
Speaker 6 (06:37):
It's good to see electric pickles making privates. To China,
all pass will be electric.
Speaker 7 (06:42):
In the future.
Speaker 3 (06:43):
Elon Musk's trip comes days after Tesla announced it had
suffered its first year on year decline in quarterly revenue
since twenty twenty. The EV maker says it's cutting headcount
by at least ten percent and looking to accelerate new
models as it looks to get back to growth. And
we're going to get more on those moves in the
Yen in a moment, as well as look ahead to
this week's Federal Reserve meeting, plus a story on how
(07:06):
UK taxpayers are picking up the bill for failings in
the country's planning laws.
Speaker 2 (07:11):
But another story that caught our eye this morning. Last
year we.
Speaker 3 (07:14):
Were worried about heat flation driving up food prices, high
temperatures making it more difficult for crop growers. This year,
the operative word is sogflation.
Speaker 1 (07:25):
Yes, I totally get that, because I spent most of
the weekend trudging around in the rain. And although there
are predictions actually of another very hot summer in Europe.
This summer, including in the UK, we just had an
unbelievable amount of rain and that is also having an
effect on prices.
Speaker 3 (07:43):
Yeah, this means that particular for crop growers. Think about
potato growers. For example, poor weather condition's last autumn meant
that harvesting had to stop after just three weeks, so
that meant that farmers couldn't get soil, couldn't get crops
rather out of the ground. The estimate from one industry
group is six hundred and fifty thousand metric tons of
potatoes didn't make it to market. There now warning about
(08:06):
a twenty percent decrease in seed availability for this year.
Potato prices have shot through the roof of eighty one
percent year on year. There could be further increases to come.
Our opinion columnist Lara Williams has been writing about this.
Her piece on the Terminal on sogflation well worth of
read this morning.
Speaker 1 (08:21):
Yeah, absolutely, how Europe has seen one of the wettest
periods on record for many many places, so an interesting
read this morning.
Speaker 3 (08:31):
Let's get more now on some of those moves that
we've seen in the Japanese yend This morning, we saw
the currency at one point wee can past one hundred
and sixty to the dollars, so fresh thirty four year low,
now bouncing back up one point eight percent on the
day to just over one hundred and fifty five. At
this point, the dollars so traders have been on a
lurt for intervention from the Finance Ministry. Mary Nikola, fin
(08:51):
Bloomberg's Markets Live team joins us now for more Mare.
Speaker 2 (08:53):
Great to have you on the program.
Speaker 3 (08:55):
How do you characterize the moves that we've seen in
the Japanese yend today?
Speaker 10 (09:01):
Oh, it's been an interesting morning to say the least,
because we thought that it would be quiet, especially with
Japan out for a holiday today. However, that's not what
we've seen. We've seen it go to one hundred and
sixty and then bounce back now towards around one fifty five.
So obviously there's very there's thin trading, so very small
(09:21):
moves can make can make a difference whether people are
profit taking or whether you know, people are just decided
or there could be intervention as well. So it's hard
to tell, especially with liquidity so thin, what's really driving these.
Speaker 1 (09:35):
Moves okay, So on intervention watch then in Japan, despite
the holiday, and Mary, we're also looking ahead towards Wednesday's
FED decision and how much Friday sticky PCE reading will
actually influence policymakers thinking.
Speaker 10 (09:52):
Yeah, there is no question that there's rising expectation and
there will be much more hawkish rhetoric from the Fed,
and they're going to have to emphasize that need to
stay patient when it comes to cutting interest rates because
the fact is the environment, whether we're looking at the
labor market or inflation, they're dual mandate. It doesn't justify
(10:12):
rate cuts just yet. So I think a lot of
that messaging is going to be hammered in from the
FED and we're going to see that come through, and
that actually makes things a little bit difficult for the
Ministry of Finance in Japan, who if we continue to
see to your yields drift higher a lot of the
if they consider intervention it might prove to be ineffective.
Speaker 3 (10:36):
This as Mary, we've been reporting on this later story
from Bloomberg Economics FED Sentiment Index as well, looking at
the impact that Jerome Pals December pivot has had on
markets and on the economy. How does this analysis help
us to understand that both the dilemma the FED is
in now, but also the power that that particular press
conference has.
Speaker 10 (10:57):
Yeah, I mean you come in December and I was
the same. I was convinced that we're going to get
FED cuts and seven cuts looked actually and the market
was pricing in about seven cuts and that almost looked
realistic and plausible after the FED meeting, especially because we
were seeing PCE trending lower. So a lot of the
(11:20):
stars were aligned, so to speak, for the FED to
start cutting. And then, of course that's shifted when you
have three three months of data showing that inflation is
moving in the opposite direction, showing that inflation remains sticky.
It's hard for the FED to renee and go against
anything that they've go against the inflation and say that
(11:43):
they're going to start cutting this. So now we've moved
from pricing in about seven to pricing in about one,
and now it's going to be does it get pushed
out even further or do they even consider that maybe
financial conditions are too easy and they might have to
hike again.
Speaker 1 (12:03):
Yeah, it's certainly again another important moment isn't it the
FED decision on Wednesdays? Of course, Mary Mary Nichola, thank
you so much for being with us. From Bloomberg's Markets
Live team.
Speaker 3 (12:15):
Now, an exclusive report from Bloomberg has revealed the British
taxpayers are paying the most on record to cover the
costs of developers successfully appealing planning applications that were previously
rejected by local councils, and highlighted yet another consequence of
the country's broken planning system, which is causing massive delays
in home building and worsening a housing shortage that's.
Speaker 2 (12:35):
Become a key election talking point.
Speaker 3 (12:37):
With the story from Bloomberg's residential real estate reporter, Damian
Shepherd joins us now for more, Damien good mourning. What
is it about the planning process and it's becoming such
a burdened taxpayers.
Speaker 11 (12:50):
Yes, So, the UK planning process is a very democratic
system and the local residents are invited to share their
views with the council when an applicant puts in a
decision to build homes. Now, this is great from the
point of view that a resident can make decisions on
how their local area looks, but the drawback is that
it can lead to a prevalent amount of nimbiism and
(13:10):
the blocking of house building in an area. Now, what
we're seeing a record amount of is planning applications being
rejected at the first stage, so residents are being invited
to share their views them and the councilors are deciding
we don't want to see this down our road, and
they're then going on to be approved by an independent body,
the Planning Inspectorate, which is fully funded by the taxpayer.
(13:33):
So this exclusive report is revealing a real cost to
the tax payer for applications that on papers should have
been approved in the first place, but were blocked by nimbiism.
Speaker 1 (13:44):
Okay, so then how do the delays affect people's ability
then to buy homes that kind of follow through issues.
Speaker 11 (13:52):
Yeah, so, I mean the drawback is that we're seeing
a lack of supply. You know, we've spoken a lot
about the lack of housing in the UK, and if
we're seeing these bottlenecks happening in houses being built, then
it's just delaying the amount of stock that's coming through
to the market and propping up house prices at a
time when people are really struggling to pull together enough
(14:14):
money to even go and do their food shop. So
that's why less people are getting on the housing ladder,
more people are stuck in the rental market, and ultimately
less homes are being built, and we're going to see
this be more and more of a big topic of
conversation as the election nears.
Speaker 3 (14:28):
Is this just about residents saying they don't want developments
built closer to them? Are there deeper problems in reflected
in this reporting as well, Damien, Yeah.
Speaker 11 (14:38):
It's definitely not the only issue, I think, even if
you take nimbiasm away from the planning system. This is
the third in a series of planning exclusives we've done
which have revealed a massive lack of staff in these
planning departments, a huge lack of funding coming to them.
So we're seeing eighty percent of major applications not being
decided in time anyway by a local authority. So there's
(15:03):
a lot of things here which are impacting the delivery
of planning and the ultimate consequence is that there's tens
and thousands of houses stuck in the planning system which
aren't coming out of the ground, and more and more
people speaking down the pub about how they can't afford
a heit.
Speaker 3 (15:23):
This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, your morning brief on the
stories making news from London to Wall Street and beyond.
Speaker 1 (15:29):
Look for us on your podcast feed every morning, on Apple, Spotify,
and anywhere else you get your podcasts.
Speaker 3 (15:35):
You can also listen live each morning on London Dab Radio,
the Bloomberg Business app, and Bloomberg dot Com.
Speaker 1 (15:41):
Our flagship New York station, is also available on your
Amazon Alexa devices. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
I'm Caroline Hepka and.
Speaker 2 (15:50):
I'm Stephen Carroll.
Speaker 3 (15:51):
Join us again tomorrow morning for all the news you
need to start your day right here on Bloomberg day
Break Europe.
Speaker 7 (16:00):
He
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg
dayba Qit podcast, available every morning on Apple, Spotify or
whatever you listen. It's Monday, the twenty ninth of April
in London. I'm Caroline Hipkiff.
Speaker 2 (00:18):
And I'm Stephen Carroll. Coming up today.
Speaker 3 (00:20):
What sixty thousand headlines analyzed by Bloomberg say about the
Federal reserves?
Speaker 1 (00:26):
Next move, The Japanese yen rebounds after dropping to a
thirty four year low against the dollar.
Speaker 3 (00:32):
Plus shaky foundations why the UK's broken planning system is
costing taxpayers more than ever.
Speaker 1 (00:39):
Let's start with a roundup of our top stories.
Speaker 3 (00:41):
An analysis of more than sixty thousand Federal Reserve news
headlines shows that Jerome Powell's words in December hinting at
a swifter pivot towards rate cuts, gave markets a boost
and likely helped the US economy dodge a downturn. Bloomberg
Economics FED Sentiment Index paradise by a natural language processing
algorithm shows that while Powell's words led to a significant
(01:05):
cut in borrowing costs, they also probably added about half
a percentage point to inflation over the year. Despite the
Fed Chair being forced into a reversal of some of
his comments this month, Bloomberg's analysis shows that Powell has
only undone a fraction of the stimulus unleashed by his
December press conference.
Speaker 4 (01:23):
Well.
Speaker 1 (01:24):
The research comes ahead of Wednesday's FED decision, where investors
will once again be scrutinizing the chair's comments for clues
about how long the central bank keeps rates high. Here's
what Goldman's Chief Asia economist Andrew Tilton is expecting.
Speaker 4 (01:40):
He needs to keep the options open for the FED
after a set of upside surprises to inflation in the
first quarter. We don't know for sure whether it we'll
see inflation down to target in time for the FED
to begin cutting by midyear. Our forecast we think the
Fed starts cutting in July. We think we'll see a
lower run rate of inflation in Q two and beyond,
(02:00):
but that's still a forecast.
Speaker 5 (02:02):
Not a fact.
Speaker 1 (02:02):
Andrew Tilton's outlook comes as markets suggests that Fed policymakers
have shifted the debate from how many times as central
bank will cut rates to whether to ease at all
this year. Swaps traders now see only one reduction for
twenty twenty four. Despite increased pessimism, though on easing. Early
results from the current reporting season suggests eighty one percent
(02:24):
of US companies are outperforming expectations even against the backdrop
of elevated rates.
Speaker 3 (02:30):
They've been major swings and the value of the yen
in trading today, the Japanese currency weakening past one hundred
and sixty to the dollar for the first time since
nineteen ninety before strongly rebounding. Traders are on high alert
for signs of intervention from Japanese authorities. Our Markets Live
Asia lead Garfield Reynolds says they don't have a lot
of options considering the wide gulf and interest rates with
(02:51):
the United States.
Speaker 5 (02:53):
Yes, the BOJO is on a tightening path, but that's
a slow path that makes it hard for the Ministry
of Finance to come in strongly to drive the dollar
yen down, especially when everything else is busy driving the
dollar up against everything that's been work.
Speaker 2 (03:11):
Scarf Ranald was there last week.
Speaker 3 (03:12):
The Bank of Japan indicated financial conditions will remain easy,
though policymakers have repeatedly warned that depreciation won't be tolerated
if it goes too far too fast.
Speaker 1 (03:24):
Now to politics that Scotland's first Minister, hums A Yusif,
may step down, according to UK media reports. The Sunday
Times says he's preparing to resign today, but the BBC
say that the SNP leader has not yet made a
final decision on his position. The speculation comes Asham's the
use of prepares to face two no confidence votes this week.
(03:46):
Former chief of staff to Nicholas Sturgeon, Liz Lloyd Toblinberg
even surviving the votes would bring further uncertainty.
Speaker 6 (03:54):
For Yousef if you to that the government is fundamentally
unstable cannot govern, essentially in hock to Alex Ammon's Alba Party.
There will be people on his own ventures who will
not be happy with that. So he's kind of stuck
between a rock and a hard place.
Speaker 1 (04:11):
Liz Lloyd, speaking there on Bloomberg's UK Politics podcast. Yusuf
had been trying to rebuild the SNP's image after a
year of turmoil in the wake of the departure of
a longtime leader, Nikola Sturgeon.
Speaker 3 (04:23):
Roinld Geiger already owns more than seventy percent of lock
Sititan now, the Skincare chairman reportedly is considering an offer
for the shares he doesn't already own through an investment vehicle.
Bloomberg's team at a BAIO has the details.
Speaker 7 (04:37):
The billionaire chairman of skincare brand Loxi ten has his
site set on taking the company private. Sources say that
an offer could soon be made, valuing the firm at
around seven billion dollars. Blackstone and Goldman Sachs are poised
to fund the buyout, providing a total of one point
six billion dollars. Bloomberg has learned. This is the second
(04:57):
time this month that Geiger has reported come close to
a deal to take LuxI ten private. In London, Tea
Adebayo Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 1 (05:07):
The United States is stepping up the push for both
a girls A ceasefire and for the release of hostages.
Israel's Foreign minister says that if there is a hostage deal,
they will suspend a planned invasion of the girls and
city of Rafa. Bloombergs Ed Baxter has more.
Speaker 8 (05:23):
This comes with Secretary of Sir Anthony Blincoln visiting Israel
today and meeting with Israeli officials. The White House says
Israel has now agreed to hear concerns NSA spokesman John
Kirby says six weeks.
Speaker 9 (05:34):
If we can get that in place, then that gives
you six weeks of peace. It gives you no fighting
for six weeks, and that includes no fighting in Rafa.
And what we're hoping is that after six weeks of
a temporary ceasefire, we can maybe get something more enduring
in place.
Speaker 8 (05:47):
Kirby says Israel has agreed that there will be no
attack on Rafa until the US concerns are heard. He
says we'll see where that goes at Baxter Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 1 (05:57):
Meanwhile, the US diplomatic effort comes as The New York
Times reports that Israel believes the International Criminal Court is
preparing to issue arrest warrens. The warrants would be for
senior Israeli government officials on charges related to the conflict
with Hamas, according to five Israeli and foreign officials.
Speaker 3 (06:14):
Bloomberg has learned that Tesla will partner with bay Do
to bring its assisted driving feature to China after CEO
Elon Musk made a surprise visit to the country. The
move may generate so much needed revenue for the electric
car maker as it faces stiff competition from rivals like expung,
Jaumi and Huaweis spoke only very briefly to reporters on
the visit to praise China's EV firms.
Speaker 6 (06:37):
It's good to see electric pickles making privates. To China,
all pass will be electric.
Speaker 7 (06:42):
In the future.
Speaker 3 (06:43):
Elon Musk's trip comes days after Tesla announced it had
suffered its first year on year decline in quarterly revenue
since twenty twenty. The EV maker says it's cutting headcount
by at least ten percent and looking to accelerate new
models as it looks to get back to growth. And
we're going to get more on those moves in the
Yen in a moment, as well as look ahead to
this week's Federal Reserve meeting, plus a story on how
(07:06):
UK taxpayers are picking up the bill for failings in
the country's planning laws.
Speaker 2 (07:11):
But another story that caught our eye this morning. Last
year we.
Speaker 3 (07:14):
Were worried about heat flation driving up food prices, high
temperatures making it more difficult for crop growers. This year,
the operative word is sogflation.
Speaker 1 (07:25):
Yes, I totally get that, because I spent most of
the weekend trudging around in the rain. And although there
are predictions actually of another very hot summer in Europe.
This summer, including in the UK, we just had an
unbelievable amount of rain and that is also having an
effect on prices.
Speaker 3 (07:43):
Yeah, this means that particular for crop growers. Think about
potato growers. For example, poor weather condition's last autumn meant
that harvesting had to stop after just three weeks, so
that meant that farmers couldn't get soil, couldn't get crops
rather out of the ground. The estimate from one industry
group is six hundred and fifty thousand metric tons of
potatoes didn't make it to market. There now warning about
(08:06):
a twenty percent decrease in seed availability for this year.
Potato prices have shot through the roof of eighty one
percent year on year. There could be further increases to come.
Our opinion columnist Lara Williams has been writing about this.
Her piece on the Terminal on sogflation well worth of
read this morning.
Speaker 1 (08:21):
Yeah, absolutely, how Europe has seen one of the wettest
periods on record for many many places, so an interesting
read this morning.
Speaker 3 (08:31):
Let's get more now on some of those moves that
we've seen in the Japanese yend This morning, we saw
the currency at one point wee can past one hundred
and sixty to the dollars, so fresh thirty four year low,
now bouncing back up one point eight percent on the
day to just over one hundred and fifty five. At
this point, the dollars so traders have been on a
lurt for intervention from the Finance Ministry. Mary Nikola, fin
(08:51):
Bloomberg's Markets Live team joins us now for more Mare.
Speaker 2 (08:53):
Great to have you on the program.
Speaker 3 (08:55):
How do you characterize the moves that we've seen in
the Japanese yend today?
Speaker 10 (09:01):
Oh, it's been an interesting morning to say the least,
because we thought that it would be quiet, especially with
Japan out for a holiday today. However, that's not what
we've seen. We've seen it go to one hundred and
sixty and then bounce back now towards around one fifty five.
So obviously there's very there's thin trading, so very small
(09:21):
moves can make can make a difference whether people are
profit taking or whether you know, people are just decided
or there could be intervention as well. So it's hard
to tell, especially with liquidity so thin, what's really driving these.
Speaker 1 (09:35):
Moves okay, So on intervention watch then in Japan, despite
the holiday, and Mary, we're also looking ahead towards Wednesday's
FED decision and how much Friday sticky PCE reading will
actually influence policymakers thinking.
Speaker 10 (09:52):
Yeah, there is no question that there's rising expectation and
there will be much more hawkish rhetoric from the Fed,
and they're going to have to emphasize that need to
stay patient when it comes to cutting interest rates because
the fact is the environment, whether we're looking at the
labor market or inflation, they're dual mandate. It doesn't justify
(10:12):
rate cuts just yet. So I think a lot of
that messaging is going to be hammered in from the
FED and we're going to see that come through, and
that actually makes things a little bit difficult for the
Ministry of Finance in Japan, who if we continue to
see to your yields drift higher a lot of the
if they consider intervention it might prove to be ineffective.
Speaker 3 (10:36):
This as Mary, we've been reporting on this later story
from Bloomberg Economics FED Sentiment Index as well, looking at
the impact that Jerome Pals December pivot has had on
markets and on the economy. How does this analysis help
us to understand that both the dilemma the FED is
in now, but also the power that that particular press
conference has.
Speaker 10 (10:57):
Yeah, I mean you come in December and I was
the same. I was convinced that we're going to get
FED cuts and seven cuts looked actually and the market
was pricing in about seven cuts and that almost looked
realistic and plausible after the FED meeting, especially because we
were seeing PCE trending lower. So a lot of the
(11:20):
stars were aligned, so to speak, for the FED to
start cutting. And then, of course that's shifted when you
have three three months of data showing that inflation is
moving in the opposite direction, showing that inflation remains sticky.
It's hard for the FED to renee and go against
anything that they've go against the inflation and say that
(11:43):
they're going to start cutting this. So now we've moved
from pricing in about seven to pricing in about one,
and now it's going to be does it get pushed
out even further or do they even consider that maybe
financial conditions are too easy and they might have to
hike again.
Speaker 1 (12:03):
Yeah, it's certainly again another important moment isn't it the
FED decision on Wednesdays? Of course, Mary Mary Nichola, thank
you so much for being with us. From Bloomberg's Markets
Live team.
Speaker 3 (12:15):
Now, an exclusive report from Bloomberg has revealed the British
taxpayers are paying the most on record to cover the
costs of developers successfully appealing planning applications that were previously
rejected by local councils, and highlighted yet another consequence of
the country's broken planning system, which is causing massive delays
in home building and worsening a housing shortage that's.
Speaker 2 (12:35):
Become a key election talking point.
Speaker 3 (12:37):
With the story from Bloomberg's residential real estate reporter, Damian
Shepherd joins us now for more, Damien good mourning. What
is it about the planning process and it's becoming such
a burdened taxpayers.
Speaker 11 (12:50):
Yes, So, the UK planning process is a very democratic
system and the local residents are invited to share their
views with the council when an applicant puts in a
decision to build homes. Now, this is great from the
point of view that a resident can make decisions on
how their local area looks, but the drawback is that
it can lead to a prevalent amount of nimbiism and
(13:10):
the blocking of house building in an area. Now, what
we're seeing a record amount of is planning applications being
rejected at the first stage, so residents are being invited
to share their views them and the councilors are deciding
we don't want to see this down our road, and
they're then going on to be approved by an independent body,
the Planning Inspectorate, which is fully funded by the taxpayer.
(13:33):
So this exclusive report is revealing a real cost to
the tax payer for applications that on papers should have
been approved in the first place, but were blocked by nimbiism.
Speaker 1 (13:44):
Okay, so then how do the delays affect people's ability
then to buy homes that kind of follow through issues.
Speaker 11 (13:52):
Yeah, so, I mean the drawback is that we're seeing
a lack of supply. You know, we've spoken a lot
about the lack of housing in the UK, and if
we're seeing these bottlenecks happening in houses being built, then
it's just delaying the amount of stock that's coming through
to the market and propping up house prices at a
time when people are really struggling to pull together enough
(14:14):
money to even go and do their food shop. So
that's why less people are getting on the housing ladder,
more people are stuck in the rental market, and ultimately
less homes are being built, and we're going to see
this be more and more of a big topic of
conversation as the election nears.
Speaker 3 (14:28):
Is this just about residents saying they don't want developments
built closer to them? Are there deeper problems in reflected
in this reporting as well, Damien, Yeah.
Speaker 11 (14:38):
It's definitely not the only issue, I think, even if
you take nimbiasm away from the planning system. This is
the third in a series of planning exclusives we've done
which have revealed a massive lack of staff in these
planning departments, a huge lack of funding coming to them.
So we're seeing eighty percent of major applications not being
decided in time anyway by a local authority. So there's
(15:03):
a lot of things here which are impacting the delivery
of planning and the ultimate consequence is that there's tens
and thousands of houses stuck in the planning system which
aren't coming out of the ground, and more and more
people speaking down the pub about how they can't afford
a heit.
Speaker 3 (15:23):
This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, your morning brief on the
stories making news from London to Wall Street and beyond.
Speaker 1 (15:29):
Look for us on your podcast feed every morning, on Apple, Spotify,
and anywhere else you get your podcasts.
Speaker 3 (15:35):
You can also listen live each morning on London Dab Radio,
the Bloomberg Business app, and Bloomberg dot Com.
Speaker 1 (15:41):
Our flagship New York station, is also available on your
Amazon Alexa devices. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
I'm Caroline Hepka and.
Speaker 2 (15:50):
I'm Stephen Carroll.
Speaker 3 (15:51):
Join us again tomorrow morning for all the news you
need to start your day right here on Bloomberg day
Break Europe.
Speaker 7 (16:00):
He
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