April 3, 2024 • 17 mins
Welcome to another episode of the Best Advice Podcast, a stellar space where our hosts Rob Lovaglio, Dave Allen, Frank Loaglio, and Mitchell Walk provide helpful insights and share positivity. We start with our segment, "Give Me Something Good," spotlighting motivational thoughts to brighten your day. This week's exceptional discussion involves the anterior mid-singulate cortex, a key brain structure connected to our willpower. Explore the link between mental engagement and the reinforcement of this brain structure.
Shifting from neurological nuances to financial territories, we address listeners' questions in our interactive Q&A segment. The topic in focus is the turbulent performance of 'Truth Social,' Trump's new media company. We dissect the reasons for a sudden drop in stock value and give comparisons to other 'Meme Stocks' like AMC and GameStop. Learn about the critical role Reddit stats play in influencing stock prices.
In this power-packed episode, we examine market trends, IPOs, and stock market volatility. Relive notable instances such as Facebook's IPO, Rivian’s public debut, and the fluctuations in their values. Learn how fear-driven decisions can be destructive and the significance of patience in reaping fruitful financial outcomes.
The discourse also highlights our strategy at Security Financial Management: relying on institutional managers rather than stock-picking ourselves. The conversation also demystifies the potential risks tied to new and trendy stocks, using examples like Trump Social and DJT.
We underscore the vitality of understanding the broader financial market over zeroing in on hot stocks alone. The talk diverges to the performance of IPOs in 2024, a year marked by unpredictability and potential risks. Our primary focus at Security Financial Management remains wealth planning and all-embracing financial planning over ephemeral gains.
In the closing section, we look at the looming possibility of a future recession and stress the importance of diversification in robust financial planning. An enlightening episode indeed, packed with valuable tips for navigating the stock market's complexities. Don't miss out!
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:00):
You're listening to the Best Advice Podcast, guys. If you haven't already,
give us a five-star review and help spread the word.
And if you have a question for the guys, email a voice recording to podcast
at bestadvicepodcastguys.com.
That's podcast at bestadvicepodcastguys.com.
Welcome back to Best Advice Podcast, guys. I'm your host, Rob Lavalio.
(00:24):
Here, as always, with Dave Allen, Frank Lavalio, and Mitchell Walker.
Gentlemen, what's crack-a-lackin'? What's crack-a-lackin'? What's crack-a-what?
I'm telling you, I like that tagline that he's brought up. I do.
It's a nice tagline, Ron.
I looked up crack-a-lackin' in Google.
It had no definition, and that's what we like.
It's a good way to start the show. It is. It gets me fired up.
(00:47):
Where did that come from, crack-a-lackin'? No idea. I don't really know. I have no idea.
What are your pals? BAU basketball days, I think.
Playing basketball again. Yeah. That's what it's me sounding.
Am I crack-a-lackin'? Crack-a-lack.
Someone bigger and faster.
What do you lose out there? So as we discussed last week, we're going to start
off our shows with a powerful practice of positive thinking,
which we call Give Me Something Good.
(01:08):
In this segment, our hosts take turns sharing unique motivational concepts aimed
to ignite a positive ripple effect that brightens your day and the lives of
everyone around you. And today I'm excited to say it's my turn.
And I don't want to toot my own horn, but I got something really good for you guys today.
All right. With that, bro, give me something good. Give me all you got.
So most people don't know this. We all have this brain structure.
(01:30):
It's called the anterior mid-singulate cortex.
When people do anything, this is the important part, that they don't want to
do, this brain area gets bigger.
Here it gets especially interesting.
The anterior mid-singulate cortex is smaller in obese people,
grows when they diet. It's larger in athletes.
It's especially large or grows larger in people who see themselves as challenged
(01:51):
or have overcome come to challenge.
And if people that live a very long time, this area keeps its size.
Scientists are now seeing the interior mid-singulate cortex as not just the
seat of willpower, but perhaps and actually the seat of the will to live.
Wow, that blew my mind. And all the data points to the fact that we can build
(02:12):
this up, but that as quickly as we build this up, if we don't continue to invest
in things that are hard for us, things we do not want to do.
Like if you love the ice bath, woo-hoo, I love the ice bath.
Like you ice bath every morning and you go from three minutes and increase it
to five minutes, guess what?
Your interior mid-singulate cortex won't grow.
But if you hate the ice bath, if you're scared of drowning or scared of the
(02:36):
cold and you get into the ice bath and you power through it, guess what?
The interior mid-singulate cortex gets bigger.
Now, if you don't do it the next day or if you do it and you like it now because
your body's used to it and you enjoy it, guess what? what? The anterior mid
cingulate cortex shrinks again.
Now, what does this tell us? This tells us that we don't get old,
(02:57):
really. We just stop doing things.
I hate when people are like, oh, my back hurts because I'm getting old.
It's like, no, no, no, no. Your back hurts because you stop walking or you stop jogging.
We got to continue to invest in bettering ourselves and continue to invest things
that we don't want to do that we know is improving us day to day.
Today's question comes from Clint from Games Report. Clint, what you got for
(03:19):
us? You want to say something?
Hey guys, I wanted to get your professional analysis on Trump's media company, Truth Social.
Came out of the gate really strong and then lost in the days following.
Just curious why the stock was so volatile so early. Keep up the good work. Thanks. Thanks.
All right. There's been a lot of questions about Trump's new company.
(03:41):
Again, let's keep it with the experts. Dan, you want to start us off?
Just to give you background, who is this? So Donald Trump, it goes by the symbol
DJT, which is probably a shocker that he got a nice name in there.
This is not political. We are not talking politics in no way.
We're just talking about the stock.
We've had a lot of calls coming in last week. That's the stock went public last week.
(04:03):
To give you a history of kind of how they brought it out, Trump's company unlocked
$300 million in investor funds when it finalized a merger deal with Digital
World Acquisition, DWA.
And they're a SPAC. We sell a whole other show that's on SPAC,
special acquisition companies.
(04:24):
They're basically a company that helps you go public. So they basically raised $300 million.
Company went public. there's a little bit of concern. You know,
again, the question from our caller is, what do you guys think as pros?
Well, you know, there's a lot of mixed feelings. It's very early.
Some institutional investors, you know, the big institutional money is saying,
(04:45):
well, let's wait and see.
A couple of things I read yesterday in preparation for the show were, hey, is it a meme stock?
And remember back when COVID hit, it feels like it's been a while ago,
but 2020 marched, you know, it took a couple of years, But really,
in summer of 20, all of a sudden, AMC and GameStop were getting these huge run-ups.
(05:06):
And I think it was the retail investor trying to punish the institutional investor.
And they called those meme stocks because they really didn't necessarily have
a lot of fundamental value, but they had some emotional value.
That is the definition of a meme stock is that emotional value.
And it's a good point you bring up, Frank. If we take a look at AMC and GameStop,
(05:27):
for example, let's just take a look at GameStop over the past six months.
It's down 22.09%. And year to date, while we've had one of the best first quarters,
according to Yahoo Finance, GameStop is down 28.07%.
And AMC, the theaters, they are really, remember, they really got pushed up as a GameStop.
(05:51):
They really got hit hard. Over the past six months, AMC is down 61.47%,
and year-to-date, it's down 48.6%.
So they've gotten punished. They've gotten punished. The hype of the whole thing,
again, I think was, when you really read about it, was to kind of punish the
institutional investor, like, hey, watch this.
If millions of people buy three shares, that can drive a stock price up. It was crazy.
(06:15):
It was. They had that Reddit company that a lot of the young people would...
You know dive into somebody would hype a
stock everybody would jump in and drive
it up it was it was very strange or something you know exactly guys in the financial
(06:36):
planning world took everybody by surprise but to that point i wanted to bring
something up i'm gonna turn over some more facts to you guys you brought up
reddit highest traffic on truth social website site,
on Trump's site, at the very height,
the day after it went public, this was late last week,
277,000 viewers.
Reddit, which you just mentioned, Dave, appropriately, on that same day,
(06:59):
I think it was Thursday of last week, 32 million visitors on Reddit.
277,000. Not beating up the stock. I'm just saying, wow, that's a big differential.
So I think there'll be some hurdles there to see how that company does.
And to your point on that, the traffic wasn't there.
And that stock right now over the last five days, Trump stock,
(07:21):
having low volume, low people looking at it, was down 31.13% over the last five days.
But yesterday, which was April 1st, it was down 21.47% in one day.
And you can just see the traffic.
Because to your point, in 24, Reddit right now, with all those hits,
(07:46):
happens to be up 48.35%. I just went public last month.
So in a month, March 21st, actually, they're up 48.35%. But I do want to clarify...
This is information from IPO performance from the NASDAQ.
Okay. And remember, stocks can go up and down. We're not guaranteeing anything.
(08:09):
We're just past performance. We just are pointing these facts out.
That's right. In an IPO like that, in a short period of time,
you could have 48% up, and then you could see, like yesterday, what did it drop?
21, 22%. Came out with $58 million worth of losses, disclosed in 23.
(08:30):
And everybody's like, wait a minute, I bought that? Sell.
Still didn't mean anything. Something else hype could come up and it could go
back up. So no, it's not for the weak.
You know, like, for example, everybody knows Facebook now. Right.
You know, that went out in May, became an IPO in May of 2012.
And what happened there was, I remember it, it came out at $34 a round,
(08:52):
$34 a share. and then quickly dropped to 18.
And some people got scared and
sold it, right? Exactly. They got out and they sold it. And guess what?
Within a short period of time, today, it's $491.
So think about it. You just hung in there or bought more when it went down.
But the difference is that's a company with substance.
(09:12):
And tremendous advertising.
Yeah, real earnings. And we've known now what social media has turned into.
People, social media is everywhere, and they're selling tremendous amounts of advertising.
They've also tied together their Instagram.
(09:33):
So there's a lot of money when it became meta. Absolutely.
Games and the whole thing. Exactly. And now Reels, because they started to drop
TikTok, and they came out with Reels. Right. So Reels has...
Really push them back up. So I want to pull people back to as well as financial
advisors at Security Financial Management.
(09:54):
We love to talk about, and it's interesting to listen to a stock going public, even Rivian.
Rivian came out on fire. They went public the last couple of years and they've
gotten beat up pretty good.
Their last earnings report was really ugly. It's a great truck.
The big headlights are cool.
I like them a lot. I looked at them. It's just, wow, they're They're proud of themselves.
But I want to bring back that Dave, Frank, and Mitch and security financial
(10:16):
management, we pick institutional managers to run the money.
So don't think because we're talking about Nib Davidian and we're talking about
Trump Social and DJT and all that.
Those are interesting topics. But typically, we'll hold some of those stocks
in an institutional portfolio. We're not picking stocks.
So just want to make sure you guys understand that's what we're doing for a living.
(10:38):
That's just interesting topics. You know what I mean? I agree. I agree.
And I don't think probably at this point too many of our institutional managers
or the ETFs have really grabbed it yet.
No. It's not time. Well, Meta, NVIDIA and all those, they've grabbed big. Absolutely.
But they've been out 12 years. Right. So with a lot of history.
That's right. The IPO is way over on that.
(10:59):
But yeah, to your point, Frank, and to Dave, we learn about these stocks.
The meme stocks and the IPOs because people want to know about them.
But again, that is not our main focus, but we do educate ourselves on it because
we need to know the whole financial market to help people when they ask us questions. That's right.
(11:20):
But that is not our focus. And security financial management is more on the
investment advice side, the wealth planning and your entire planning of your
whole financial situation, not what's the hottest stock.
Just to go back, in 2024 so far, and here we are April 2nd, there have been 18 IPOs this year.
(11:42):
Oh, wow. And out of those 18 IPOs, 10 of them have lost money already. Wow.
And I'm only talking in three months, 10 of them are down and down pretty big.
There's eight of them that are up and that's it. So you can see how volatile
they can be and where they can be all over the map.
So if you're a long-term investor and you figure out what it's going to look
(12:04):
like, if it works out and you think it's going to be okay, you're not going to lose out on a lot.
Like to your point earlier, Dave, Facebook was about, what, $34?
And now it's over 400 and something dollars.
Yeah, so if you waited a year or two and wow, you jumped in at 60 and now it's over 400.
(12:27):
You didn't do that badly, did you? You did pretty well.
So really to summarize that piece, the caller is, hey, what do you do as professionals?
I think what I'm hearing from my peers and my professional partners is maybe look at it a little bit.
I mean, if someone again called in and said, hey, I know you're institutional
or invested my money, But I just want to buy a slipper for a grandkid in their account.
(12:48):
I think my, and we'll weigh in with my partners, but my gut is telling me,
based on it coming out, there's not, again, 277,000 viewers.
The facts, to me, are not lining up. If it's my grandchild, which I have two
and one on the way, by the way, I probably wouldn't put it in their kiddie fund
just because I kind of want to wait and see is my opinion. What do you think, Mitch?
I agree. Again, I'm more on the conservative side and not chasing the newest hot stuff because I,
(13:16):
You could get burned that way and just wait and see.
Yeah. Because if somebody wants to play with it a little bit,
you know, take a small amount.
And it's something that won't hurt you because it could win or could lose you.
And it's a little bit like taking those dice and going like,
yeah, you might win, you might not, but don't bet the form.
(13:37):
Yeah. Make an amount you're comfortable losing. The whole thing strikes,
really, because it looks like just all the Trump supporters just are going to
support Trump, regardless of what that means.
That means throwing money into a stock that has no real backbone yet. That's the notion.
That's not the non-fundamental side. And I agree with people that people that
(13:57):
like Trump are going to follow him because they're going to follow who they like.
As always, we're going to close out this show with a minute with Mitch.
One minute with Mitch. Thank you, Rob.
And I'll keep it to a minute. We'll keep it short today. It has to do with the bond market.
The bond market is a little skittish right now, and that has caused the equity
market to see a lot of volatility yesterday,
(14:20):
the Dow losing over 200 points, and the futures this morning are not looking very exciting.
But with that said, the three-month T-bill has gone up.
It's now 5.35%. If you remember over the past few weeks, that has been coming down.
And the six-month T-bill is back up again to 5.30.
(14:44):
And the 10-year is down to, or it's actually up, it's up to 4.39.
So that is growing. Now, we still have that inverted yield curve.
And when you have an inverted yield curve, which we're now almost three years,
it started in August of 2021.
That is usually a sign of a recession coming. And so far, we haven't had it,
(15:08):
and it looked like we're not going to have anything.
But this morning, again, April 2nd, there's some talk that it's possible again.
So we're going to have to sit and watch, and the bond market is reacting that way.
You know, as bad as we hear things are, everything else is up.
The numbers are still good.
But it's so co-confusing, Mitch. It's like, and Dave, things are good. So you know what?
(15:33):
Manufacturing's up. Activity's up. That's bad. I know. Because it's bad because
they may not reduce rates. And if they don't reduce rates, then that stock market doesn't like that.
So it's like we were praying for bad. Is that where we are?
Pretty much. Right now, I think about a couple of days ago, it was,
believe it or not, up to about a 75% chance of a June cut.
Today, it's now 58%. It's going down.
(15:55):
It's going down because these numbers are coming out too well.
Anyway, we'll wrap it up there.
But again, we're still watching the bonds because the bonds are starting to
move a little and it's having a little negative reflection on the equity market.
But we have to be careful and watch it. Like always, you don't know where that
equity market's going to go.
(16:16):
As Dave pointed out earlier, don't go heavy on one thing.
It's asset allocation, it's planning, it's diversification.
So that's what we believe in. And those are good fundamentals in financial planning.
Two and a half minutes with Mitch. Thank you, Mitch.
Remember, everyone, the secret to success is not what you learn.
(16:39):
It's what you keep. Happy days, everybody.
This podcast is for entertainment and educational purposes only and is not intended
as personal financial advice.
Before making any financial decision, please do your own research and consult
a financial advisor as needed. If you have a question for the guys,
email podcast at bestadvicepodcastguys.com.
You're listening to the Best Advice Podcast, guys. If you haven't already,
give us a five-star review and help spread the word.
And if you have a question for the guys, email a voice recording to podcast
at bestadvicepodcastguys.com.
That's podcast at bestadvicepodcastguys.com.
Welcome back to Best Advice Podcast, guys. I'm your host, Rob Lavalio.
(00:24):
Here, as always, with Dave Allen, Frank Lavalio, and Mitchell Walker.
Gentlemen, what's crack-a-lackin'? What's crack-a-lackin'? What's crack-a-what?
I'm telling you, I like that tagline that he's brought up. I do.
It's a nice tagline, Ron.
I looked up crack-a-lackin' in Google.
It had no definition, and that's what we like.
It's a good way to start the show. It is. It gets me fired up.
(00:47):
Where did that come from, crack-a-lackin'? No idea. I don't really know. I have no idea.
What are your pals? BAU basketball days, I think.
Playing basketball again. Yeah. That's what it's me sounding.
Am I crack-a-lackin'? Crack-a-lack.
Someone bigger and faster.
What do you lose out there? So as we discussed last week, we're going to start
off our shows with a powerful practice of positive thinking,
which we call Give Me Something Good.
(01:08):
In this segment, our hosts take turns sharing unique motivational concepts aimed
to ignite a positive ripple effect that brightens your day and the lives of
everyone around you. And today I'm excited to say it's my turn.
And I don't want to toot my own horn, but I got something really good for you guys today.
All right. With that, bro, give me something good. Give me all you got.
So most people don't know this. We all have this brain structure.
(01:30):
It's called the anterior mid-singulate cortex.
When people do anything, this is the important part, that they don't want to
do, this brain area gets bigger.
Here it gets especially interesting.
The anterior mid-singulate cortex is smaller in obese people,
grows when they diet. It's larger in athletes.
It's especially large or grows larger in people who see themselves as challenged
(01:51):
or have overcome come to challenge.
And if people that live a very long time, this area keeps its size.
Scientists are now seeing the interior mid-singulate cortex as not just the
seat of willpower, but perhaps and actually the seat of the will to live.
Wow, that blew my mind. And all the data points to the fact that we can build
(02:12):
this up, but that as quickly as we build this up, if we don't continue to invest
in things that are hard for us, things we do not want to do.
Like if you love the ice bath, woo-hoo, I love the ice bath.
Like you ice bath every morning and you go from three minutes and increase it
to five minutes, guess what?
Your interior mid-singulate cortex won't grow.
But if you hate the ice bath, if you're scared of drowning or scared of the
(02:36):
cold and you get into the ice bath and you power through it, guess what?
The interior mid-singulate cortex gets bigger.
Now, if you don't do it the next day or if you do it and you like it now because
your body's used to it and you enjoy it, guess what? what? The anterior mid
cingulate cortex shrinks again.
Now, what does this tell us? This tells us that we don't get old,
(02:57):
really. We just stop doing things.
I hate when people are like, oh, my back hurts because I'm getting old.
It's like, no, no, no, no. Your back hurts because you stop walking or you stop jogging.
We got to continue to invest in bettering ourselves and continue to invest things
that we don't want to do that we know is improving us day to day.
Today's question comes from Clint from Games Report. Clint, what you got for
(03:19):
us? You want to say something?
Hey guys, I wanted to get your professional analysis on Trump's media company, Truth Social.
Came out of the gate really strong and then lost in the days following.
Just curious why the stock was so volatile so early. Keep up the good work. Thanks. Thanks.
All right. There's been a lot of questions about Trump's new company.
(03:41):
Again, let's keep it with the experts. Dan, you want to start us off?
Just to give you background, who is this? So Donald Trump, it goes by the symbol
DJT, which is probably a shocker that he got a nice name in there.
This is not political. We are not talking politics in no way.
We're just talking about the stock.
We've had a lot of calls coming in last week. That's the stock went public last week.
(04:03):
To give you a history of kind of how they brought it out, Trump's company unlocked
$300 million in investor funds when it finalized a merger deal with Digital
World Acquisition, DWA.
And they're a SPAC. We sell a whole other show that's on SPAC,
special acquisition companies.
(04:24):
They're basically a company that helps you go public. So they basically raised $300 million.
Company went public. there's a little bit of concern. You know,
again, the question from our caller is, what do you guys think as pros?
Well, you know, there's a lot of mixed feelings. It's very early.
Some institutional investors, you know, the big institutional money is saying,
(04:45):
well, let's wait and see.
A couple of things I read yesterday in preparation for the show were, hey, is it a meme stock?
And remember back when COVID hit, it feels like it's been a while ago,
but 2020 marched, you know, it took a couple of years, But really,
in summer of 20, all of a sudden, AMC and GameStop were getting these huge run-ups.
(05:06):
And I think it was the retail investor trying to punish the institutional investor.
And they called those meme stocks because they really didn't necessarily have
a lot of fundamental value, but they had some emotional value.
That is the definition of a meme stock is that emotional value.
And it's a good point you bring up, Frank. If we take a look at AMC and GameStop,
(05:27):
for example, let's just take a look at GameStop over the past six months.
It's down 22.09%. And year to date, while we've had one of the best first quarters,
according to Yahoo Finance, GameStop is down 28.07%.
And AMC, the theaters, they are really, remember, they really got pushed up as a GameStop.
(05:51):
They really got hit hard. Over the past six months, AMC is down 61.47%,
and year-to-date, it's down 48.6%.
So they've gotten punished. They've gotten punished. The hype of the whole thing,
again, I think was, when you really read about it, was to kind of punish the
institutional investor, like, hey, watch this.
If millions of people buy three shares, that can drive a stock price up. It was crazy.
(06:15):
It was. They had that Reddit company that a lot of the young people would...
You know dive into somebody would hype a
stock everybody would jump in and drive
it up it was it was very strange or something you know exactly guys in the financial
(06:36):
planning world took everybody by surprise but to that point i wanted to bring
something up i'm gonna turn over some more facts to you guys you brought up
reddit highest traffic on truth social website site,
on Trump's site, at the very height,
the day after it went public, this was late last week,
277,000 viewers.
Reddit, which you just mentioned, Dave, appropriately, on that same day,
(06:59):
I think it was Thursday of last week, 32 million visitors on Reddit.
277,000. Not beating up the stock. I'm just saying, wow, that's a big differential.
So I think there'll be some hurdles there to see how that company does.
And to your point on that, the traffic wasn't there.
And that stock right now over the last five days, Trump stock,
(07:21):
having low volume, low people looking at it, was down 31.13% over the last five days.
But yesterday, which was April 1st, it was down 21.47% in one day.
And you can just see the traffic.
Because to your point, in 24, Reddit right now, with all those hits,
(07:46):
happens to be up 48.35%. I just went public last month.
So in a month, March 21st, actually, they're up 48.35%. But I do want to clarify...
This is information from IPO performance from the NASDAQ.
Okay. And remember, stocks can go up and down. We're not guaranteeing anything.
(08:09):
We're just past performance. We just are pointing these facts out.
That's right. In an IPO like that, in a short period of time,
you could have 48% up, and then you could see, like yesterday, what did it drop?
21, 22%. Came out with $58 million worth of losses, disclosed in 23.
(08:30):
And everybody's like, wait a minute, I bought that? Sell.
Still didn't mean anything. Something else hype could come up and it could go
back up. So no, it's not for the weak.
You know, like, for example, everybody knows Facebook now. Right.
You know, that went out in May, became an IPO in May of 2012.
And what happened there was, I remember it, it came out at $34 a round,
(08:52):
$34 a share. and then quickly dropped to 18.
And some people got scared and
sold it, right? Exactly. They got out and they sold it. And guess what?
Within a short period of time, today, it's $491.
So think about it. You just hung in there or bought more when it went down.
But the difference is that's a company with substance.
(09:12):
And tremendous advertising.
Yeah, real earnings. And we've known now what social media has turned into.
People, social media is everywhere, and they're selling tremendous amounts of advertising.
They've also tied together their Instagram.
(09:33):
So there's a lot of money when it became meta. Absolutely.
Games and the whole thing. Exactly. And now Reels, because they started to drop
TikTok, and they came out with Reels. Right. So Reels has...
Really push them back up. So I want to pull people back to as well as financial
advisors at Security Financial Management.
(09:54):
We love to talk about, and it's interesting to listen to a stock going public, even Rivian.
Rivian came out on fire. They went public the last couple of years and they've
gotten beat up pretty good.
Their last earnings report was really ugly. It's a great truck.
The big headlights are cool.
I like them a lot. I looked at them. It's just, wow, they're They're proud of themselves.
But I want to bring back that Dave, Frank, and Mitch and security financial
(10:16):
management, we pick institutional managers to run the money.
So don't think because we're talking about Nib Davidian and we're talking about
Trump Social and DJT and all that.
Those are interesting topics. But typically, we'll hold some of those stocks
in an institutional portfolio. We're not picking stocks.
So just want to make sure you guys understand that's what we're doing for a living.
(10:38):
That's just interesting topics. You know what I mean? I agree. I agree.
And I don't think probably at this point too many of our institutional managers
or the ETFs have really grabbed it yet.
No. It's not time. Well, Meta, NVIDIA and all those, they've grabbed big. Absolutely.
But they've been out 12 years. Right. So with a lot of history.
That's right. The IPO is way over on that.
(10:59):
But yeah, to your point, Frank, and to Dave, we learn about these stocks.
The meme stocks and the IPOs because people want to know about them.
But again, that is not our main focus, but we do educate ourselves on it because
we need to know the whole financial market to help people when they ask us questions. That's right.
(11:20):
But that is not our focus. And security financial management is more on the
investment advice side, the wealth planning and your entire planning of your
whole financial situation, not what's the hottest stock.
Just to go back, in 2024 so far, and here we are April 2nd, there have been 18 IPOs this year.
(11:42):
Oh, wow. And out of those 18 IPOs, 10 of them have lost money already. Wow.
And I'm only talking in three months, 10 of them are down and down pretty big.
There's eight of them that are up and that's it. So you can see how volatile
they can be and where they can be all over the map.
So if you're a long-term investor and you figure out what it's going to look
(12:04):
like, if it works out and you think it's going to be okay, you're not going to lose out on a lot.
Like to your point earlier, Dave, Facebook was about, what, $34?
And now it's over 400 and something dollars.
Yeah, so if you waited a year or two and wow, you jumped in at 60 and now it's over 400.
(12:27):
You didn't do that badly, did you? You did pretty well.
So really to summarize that piece, the caller is, hey, what do you do as professionals?
I think what I'm hearing from my peers and my professional partners is maybe look at it a little bit.
I mean, if someone again called in and said, hey, I know you're institutional
or invested my money, But I just want to buy a slipper for a grandkid in their account.
(12:48):
I think my, and we'll weigh in with my partners, but my gut is telling me,
based on it coming out, there's not, again, 277,000 viewers.
The facts, to me, are not lining up. If it's my grandchild, which I have two
and one on the way, by the way, I probably wouldn't put it in their kiddie fund
just because I kind of want to wait and see is my opinion. What do you think, Mitch?
I agree. Again, I'm more on the conservative side and not chasing the newest hot stuff because I,
(13:16):
You could get burned that way and just wait and see.
Yeah. Because if somebody wants to play with it a little bit,
you know, take a small amount.
And it's something that won't hurt you because it could win or could lose you.
And it's a little bit like taking those dice and going like,
yeah, you might win, you might not, but don't bet the form.
(13:37):
Yeah. Make an amount you're comfortable losing. The whole thing strikes,
really, because it looks like just all the Trump supporters just are going to
support Trump, regardless of what that means.
That means throwing money into a stock that has no real backbone yet. That's the notion.
That's not the non-fundamental side. And I agree with people that people that
(13:57):
like Trump are going to follow him because they're going to follow who they like.
As always, we're going to close out this show with a minute with Mitch.
One minute with Mitch. Thank you, Rob.
And I'll keep it to a minute. We'll keep it short today. It has to do with the bond market.
The bond market is a little skittish right now, and that has caused the equity
market to see a lot of volatility yesterday,
(14:20):
the Dow losing over 200 points, and the futures this morning are not looking very exciting.
But with that said, the three-month T-bill has gone up.
It's now 5.35%. If you remember over the past few weeks, that has been coming down.
And the six-month T-bill is back up again to 5.30.
(14:44):
And the 10-year is down to, or it's actually up, it's up to 4.39.
So that is growing. Now, we still have that inverted yield curve.
And when you have an inverted yield curve, which we're now almost three years,
it started in August of 2021.
That is usually a sign of a recession coming. And so far, we haven't had it,
(15:08):
and it looked like we're not going to have anything.
But this morning, again, April 2nd, there's some talk that it's possible again.
So we're going to have to sit and watch, and the bond market is reacting that way.
You know, as bad as we hear things are, everything else is up.
The numbers are still good.
But it's so co-confusing, Mitch. It's like, and Dave, things are good. So you know what?
(15:33):
Manufacturing's up. Activity's up. That's bad. I know. Because it's bad because
they may not reduce rates. And if they don't reduce rates, then that stock market doesn't like that.
So it's like we were praying for bad. Is that where we are?
Pretty much. Right now, I think about a couple of days ago, it was,
believe it or not, up to about a 75% chance of a June cut.
Today, it's now 58%. It's going down.
(15:55):
It's going down because these numbers are coming out too well.
Anyway, we'll wrap it up there.
But again, we're still watching the bonds because the bonds are starting to
move a little and it's having a little negative reflection on the equity market.
But we have to be careful and watch it. Like always, you don't know where that
equity market's going to go.
(16:16):
As Dave pointed out earlier, don't go heavy on one thing.
It's asset allocation, it's planning, it's diversification.
So that's what we believe in. And those are good fundamentals in financial planning.
Two and a half minutes with Mitch. Thank you, Mitch.
Remember, everyone, the secret to success is not what you learn.
(16:39):
It's what you keep. Happy days, everybody.
This podcast is for entertainment and educational purposes only and is not intended
as personal financial advice.
Before making any financial decision, please do your own research and consult
a financial advisor as needed. If you have a question for the guys,
email podcast at bestadvicepodcastguys.com.
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