Adam, Doug, and Ryan wrap up 2023, discussing their learnings, surprises, and expectations for 2024:
- The strong GDP growth and low unemployment in 2023, noting how rate hikes seemed to stimulate the economy, contrary to popular belief.
- Higher government spending and lower inflation in 2023
- The importance of understanding fiscal policy's impact on the macroeconomy while other factors like bank credit and money supply are secondary.
- The relationship between fiscal spending, bank credit, and economic trends, noting the trend of fiscal dominance in 2023.
- Surprise at the rapid fall in inflation and the decline in oil prices, which wasn't anticipated.
- How bank credit and loans behaved in 2023, with a focus on the difference between bank credit contraction and expansion in loans and leases.
- Potential risks and outcomes if the Fed decides to cut rates in 2024
- Predictions for 2024
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