2024 Election Year Market Outlook

Today we have a comprehensive discussion with Bruce Hosler and Alex Koury of Hosler Wealth Management about the market outlook for 2024. We're now into a Presidential election year, and Alex addresses the common concern about the impact of presidential elections on market performance. Historically, the market has averaged an 11.6% return during election years, regardless of the winning party. This trend suggests that the political landscape may not be as influential on market performance as often perceived.

But Bruce cautions against expecting a smooth market ride in 2024, despite the historical data. He highlights the unpredictability of the market, especially considering the significant influence of the 'Magnificent Seven' stocks. These stocks have driven a large portion of the S&P 500's growth but also pose a risk of correction. This underscores the need for investor preparedness for potential market volatility.

While the S&P 500 saw a 24% increase in 2023, again, this was largely due to the 'Magnificent Seven.' For a similar rally in 2024, a broader range of stocks would need to contribute to market gains. He also emphasizes the importance of being aware of market risks, including the potential impacts of Federal Reserve policies and global events.

Bruce Hosler then shifts to other investment opportunities beyond the 'Magnificent Seven,' suggesting a need for diversification. He discusses the impact of Federal Reserve policies on interest rates and the implications for various sectors, including small caps and companies affected by interest rate changes. He also stresses the importance of a diversified portfolio and a long-term investment strategy, using examples like Microsoft and Costco to illustrate potential opportunities outside the dominant stocks.

The conversation then turns to broader economic considerations. Bruce Hosler discusses the housing market, consumer spending, and employment trends, suggesting cautious optimism for the economy in 2024. He notes the potential for a mild recession but does not foresee a severe downturn unless triggered by significant geopolitical events.

Finally, we emphasize the importance of strategic investment planning. Investors should assess their financial goals and risk tolerance and not miss out on potential market opportunities due to fear or uncertainty. Have a financial plan that aligns with your investment timeline and risk profile.

For more information about anything related to your finances, contact Bruce Hosler and the team at Hosler Wealth Management: Visit them online at https://www.hoslerwm.com/

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