2024 Interest Rate Outlook

Today, Bruce and Jason Hosler delve into the financial landscape of 2024, focusing on the pivotal role of interest rates, the ongoing impact of inflation, and the potential influence of the presidential election on the economy.

The Federal Reserve had significant influence on the financial events of 2023, particularly through historic rate increases and a subsequent pause. We collectively foresee this trend continuing to shape the markets in 2024. We recognize that the market's recent fluctuations are largely a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and the government's response, which included aggressive measures to combat rising inflation.

We explore the possibility of the Fed reducing interest rates in 2024. While the Fed has indicated potential rate cuts, the bond market anticipates more substantial reductions than what the Fed currently projects. This suggests that the market is expecting a 'soft landing' strategy from the Fed, aiming to control inflation without leading to a recession.

A recession in 2024 is a possibility, contingent on specific adverse events such as a resurgence in inflation or escalating geopolitical tensions. There's a wide range of predictions among analysts regarding the Fed's actions and the potential for a recession, reflecting the current climate of uncertainty in the financial markets.

Of course, 2024 is a Presidential election year. The Fed, despite its efforts to remain politically neutral, faces pressure to maintain a stable economy during an election year. There is a complex relationship between political parties and economic performance. Incumbents, regardless of their party, are vulnerable to public dissatisfaction in times of economic downturn.

Inflation remains a primary concern for us. We observe that despite a decrease in the inflation rate, the cost of living remains high for most Americans. Bruce and Jon cite McDonalds and Burger King, respectively, as examples.

We also touch upon the oil market, noting a recent decrease in prices and the potential impact of Middle Eastern geopolitics on global oil prices. This could influence the Fed's interest rate decisions if it leads to increased inflation.

For short-term interest rates, we predict that a decrease in these rates could prompt investors to seek higher yields elsewhere, potentially increasing market volatility. We anticipate a swift shift in investor behavior as returns on safer investments like money market accounts diminish.

For more information about anything related to your finances, contact Bruce Hosler and the team at Hosler Wealth Management: Visit them online at https://www.hoslerwm.com/

Or call them in their Prescott office at [phone] or their Scottsdale office at [phone].

For more podcast episodes, visit our podcast website at https://hoslerwm.com/protectingwealthpodcast/

Limitation of Liability Disclosures:  https://www.hoslerwm.com/disclosures/#socialmedia

Copyright © 2022-2024 Hosler Wealth Management LLC, All Rights Reserved. #ProtectingWealthPodcast  #ProtectingandPreservingWealthPodcast #HoslerWealthManagement #BruceHosler