215 - How will China impact the oil markets in 2023?

Oil rises on demand optimism as China borders reopen

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-nudges-higher-after-china-opens-borders-lifts-fuel-demand-outlook-2023-01-09/

- we are seeing back and forth with whether CHina's demand is going to surge or not

- Saudi Arabia cuts its OSP to Asia - indicates they think that demand in China is soft

- China issued a second batch of 2023 crude import quotas, Reuters says this makes the total for this year by 20% from the same time last year.

- Likely to see a slow climb upwards in demand

Saudi Arabia cuts oil prices for main market as demand slowshttps://gulfbusiness.com/saudi-arabia-cuts-oil-prices-for-main-market-as-demand-slows/

Taliban and China firm agree Afghanistan oil extraction deal

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-64183083

- Amu Darya basin apparently has 87 million barrels. CHinese company will invest $150 million a year to extract it

- Could be a tit for tat situation in which China develops oil for Taliban and then Taliban lets Chinese companies mine their rare earths which are actually more valuable

EOG eyes flat Permian activity, tighter global oil supply in 2023

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/eog-resources-eyes-flat-permian-activity-2023-tighter-global-oil-supply-2023-01-06/

- EOG CEO says that global oil supply will likely tighten this year

- flat production, prices difficult to predict

- Sheffield says that Saudi won't let Brent stay at $75 and they will cut to get prices higher. 

Oil prices: Predictions for 2023

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-prices-predictions-for-2023-164454199.html

Citi: Brent $80, WTI $75

JPMorgan: Brent $90

OPIS: Brent $95-96, WTI $90

Infrastructure Capital Advisors: $80-$100/barrel

Pioneer NR (Sheffiel) - base around $90 for Brent with highs up to $150Natural Gas Prices Are Coming Down. What to Expect for Energy Stocks. https://www.barrons.com/articles/natural-gas-prices-energy-stocks-51673027117- “The warmer-than-expected winter pulled forward the expected decline in natural gas price. Stocks could fall an additional 20% to 30% until they find a bottom,” Matt Portillo, head of research at Tudor, Pickering, Holt, told Barron’s

Using Up America’s Oil Reserve Was Easy. Refilling It Won’t Be.https://www.wsj.com/articles/using-up-americas-oil-reserve-was-easy-refilling-it-wont-be-11673220972

- DOE wants to wait until WTI is below $70/barrel on a "consistent basis"

- "A good buying window might be approaching if the administration wants to take it: WTI crude is trading around $74 a barrel today. Waiting around to sign future delivery contracts at the $70-a-barrel range could prove trickier."

-"A DOE spokeswoman confirmed that the agency won’t be buying for the February delivery window."

- "The idea is to use the fixed-price contracts as a carrot for U.S. oil producers to invest in production." -- is this incentive for any producer?

- If a CEO agreed to this now, Ellen thinks it would be grounds to remove them.

Tune in next week for Special Guest Kunal Patel from the Dallas Fed to discuss the latest Energy Survey

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